Who's being overlooked?

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I like to take time to identify targets that aren't the normal, new FAs, shiny 2nd year, new offensive coordinator types that get attention from everyone. It's a little harder, and maybe these guys will have a lower "hit rate", but these are the type of guys that I have occasionally hit on in the past who really gave me big value. These guys don't really have anything directly effecting their status but for a variety of reasons, some of which is past failure, they seem to offer upside to me.

 

Here's 1 guy I'm looking at.

 

Marcus Wheaton. I saw him flash a few times in the back half of the year. I had previously written him off as a WR who couldn't catch, but the last half of the year he had some games that showed differently. He seemed to get a little rhythm at the end of the year, and with Bryant being a pot head he's gotten the chance for another crack at being the #2.

 

 

Your turn. Can't be a rookie, can't be a FA, must be with the same team, and someone you're expecting a SIGNIFICANT increase in production from.

[giraldi02 470]

Vincent Jackson. I know he's getting older and has battled injuries, but he's currently getting taken in the 17th round in 12 team PPR leagues on MFL. I'm not expecting him to surpass 1,000 yards this season, but if I can get a bye-week filler like him near the tail-end of the draft...I'm all for it.


Now if this thread consisted of players that went to a new team, I'd be all in on Chris Hogan in New England. Dude is nails.

[weepaws 2,460]

T Coleman Falcons . He is going to get a lot more of the first and second down work .

 

G Bernard of the Bengals , with M Jones and Sanu gone and Eifert hurting he could get 80 targets or more.

[weepaws 2,460]

D Parker with the Dolphins.

 

J Nelson 2014 he posted 1519 yards and 13 tds and avg 20 points per game in ppr leagues with 98 rec this guy should be a top ten pick .

[giraldi02 470]

Michael Campanaro, if he can get back on the field, could push for a starting role in Baltimore. I'll be keeping an eye on the Ravens throughout camp as I do like their rookie Chris Moore a lot too.

Given the uncertainty with Perriman and Smiff, the Ravens' WR corps is really a quagmire. Additionally, Campanaro's injury was a herniated disc, so no lower body/leg injury that might hinder his mobility/cuts. Could be a lottery ticket in deep leagues...could also be a dumpster fire.

[polecatt 403]

Allen Hurns. He is ranked between 30-40 on most lists at WR. He showed promise as a rookie and made a pretty good step up in his 2nd season. In his 3rd he may be ready to really break out. He is lost in the shadow of teammate Allen Robinson, who had a better season but Hurns has all the tools and talent to be as good or even better than Robinson. With the big contract extension he just signed it's clear the Jaguars have big plans for him. He could easily rank 20+ spots ahead of where he is being projected.

[rholio 339]

Agree on Hurns.

 

I'll add E. Ebron. Calvin gone means more targets for everyone, and Ebron should see a nice increase in the red zone. Currently ranked outside of the top 12 many places, could be a viable starter available late in the draft.

[SpenceToons 70]

Donte Moncrief won't have an Andre Johnson in front of him to siphon off snaps and will hopefully have a full season's worth of targets coming from a healthy Andrew Luck.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I like this. Nice names being thrown out.

 

Here's a deep one for you

 

Tim Hightower. Comes out of nowhere and looks great in a role that's historically been very productive as a catching back for Brees/Payton. He has always had great hands and been excellent in blitz pickup. Spiller never stays healthy and he's expensive.

[R8RMick 242]

Take my word on this one-

 

Draft Clive Walford as your backup TE.

[Hawkeye21 1,854]

I think Abdullah has a great year. No more Joique Bell and Riddick is strictly a receiving back.

 

I really have to disagree with Hurns though. He was dependent on TDs last year which he will not get this year. Since the team is improving they will be in closer games which means more running which means less passing which means fewer passing yards for Bortles which means fewer yards and TDs for Robinson and Hurns. I expect digression from Bortles, Robinson and Hurns.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I think Abdullah has a great year. No more Joique Bell and Riddick is strictly a receiving back.

 

I really have to disagree with Hurns though. He was dependent on TDs last year which he will not get this year. Since the team is improving they will be in closer games which means more running which means less passing which means fewer passing yards for Bortles which means fewer yards and TDs for Robinson and Hurns. I expect digression from Bortles, Robinson and Hurns.

Besides a few shake and bake carries Abdullah was compared to Barry Sanders with, I haven't seen anything to tell me Abdullah is a work horse back. Zener may vulture a lot of short yardage work.

[Ray_T 591]

Besides a few shake and bake carries Abdullah was compared to Barry Sanders with, I haven't seen anything to tell me Abdullah is a work horse back. Zener may vulture a lot of short yardage work.

It's hard to say what Abdullah will be.

 

we have some hints. but the real issue is that a RB can sometimes be a different player in a full time role than he is in a part time one.

 

Some RB's get better, more creative, and see the holes better when they get lots of carries.

 

some RB's break down physically, lose some of the creativity they showed when they played part time, and dont have the mental stamina to continue to see the holes the same way they did when they got 10 carries a game.

 

Most RB's are better when they get more carries, but some players definitely are not.

[jrokh 569]

This is a great thread I would add Dorial Green Beckham he should step it up this year. Also see legarette Blount being ignored he still has TD value

[BoxFullofJoel 3]

Donte Moncrief won't have an Andre Johnson in front of him to siphon off snaps and will hopefully have a full season's worth of targets coming from a healthy Andrew Luck.

I totally agree, He was very productive and consistent even with AJ in the way. I think he will have a better year than TY.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

It's hard to say what Abdullah will be.

 

we have some hints. but the real issue is that a RB can sometimes be a different player in a full time role than he is in a part time one.

 

Some RB's get better, more creative, and see the holes better when they get lots of carries.

 

some RB's break down physically, lose some of the creativity they showed when they played part time, and dont have the mental stamina to continue to see the holes the same way they did when they got 10 carries a game.

 

Most RB's are better when they get more carries, but some players definitely are not.

I agree that there are running backs who do not get a fair shake to show what they can do as a feature guy. It's hard to get a rhythm with just a few carries. I think Abdullah is a solid running back, but from what I saw I do not think he is anywhere near special like some people were anticipating. Of course touches are king, so if he gets a lot of touches he will produce just fine. I took a flyer on the rookie Dwayne Washington in one of my rookies drafts. There didn't seem to be a lot in his way as far as top tier talent.

[weepaws 2,460]

This is a great thread I would add Dorial Green Beckham he should step it up this year. Also see legarette Blount being ignored he still has TD value

Doesn't sound like he is having a very good camp right now .

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Doesn't sound like he is having a very good camp right now .

Shhh! Let everyone keep thinking DGB is going to break out this year to keep Matthews upside "minimal".

[Hawkeye21 1,854]

There are some 2nd year backs that I think could be the next Freeman. I'd like to see one of these guys have a monster year. Plus, they can be had pretty cheap.

 

Langford

Ajayi

Abdullah

Gordon

[giraldi02 470]

I feel like 90% of the names listed here are all well-known players in the fantasy community.

 

Like...who is overlooking Donte Moncrief or Devante Parker outside of 8 team leagues?

[weepaws 2,460]

Poster asked who do you expect a Significant increase in production from .

 

I think both Parker and Moncrief would qualify in that category.

[SpenceToons 70]

I feel like 90% of the names listed here are all well-known players in the fantasy community.

 

Like...who is overlooking Donte Moncrief or Devante Parker outside of 8 team leagues?

 

Well...the OP featured Markus Wheaton as his example of what he was looking for from this thread. Wheaton comes in as the WR40 on the FFToday stat page for 2015 and Moncrief as the WR38 - about as close as you can get. Parker is more off the radar as the WR68 (although his 2nd half volume elevated him closer to the ranks of a Wheaton or a Moncrief).

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I feel like 90% of the names listed here are all well-known players in the fantasy community.

 

Like...who is overlooking Donte Moncrief or Devante Parker outside of 8 team leagues?

I think you're the one who missed the point of the thread. This isn't about super deep sleepers you've never even heard of. It's about guys flying under the radar when maybe they shouldn't be

[giraldi02 470]

I like to take time to identify targets that aren't the normal, new FAs, shiny 2nd year, new offensive coordinator types that get attention from everyone. It's a little harder, and maybe these guys will have a lower "hit rate", but these are the type of guys that I have occasionally hit on in the past who really gave me big value. These guys don't really have anything directly effecting their status but for a variety of reasons, some of which is past failure, they seem to offer upside to me.

 

Here's 1 guy I'm looking at.

 

Marcus Wheaton. I saw him flash a few times in the back half of the year. I had previously written him off as a WR who couldn't catch, but the last half of the year he had some games that showed differently. He seemed to get a little rhythm at the end of the year, and with Bryant being a pot head he's gotten the chance for another crack at being the #2.

 

 

Your turn. Can't be a rookie, can't be a FA, must be with the same team, and someone you're expecting a SIGNIFICANT increase in production from.

 

 

I think you're the one who missed the point of the thread. This isn't about super deep sleepers you've never even heard of. It's about guys flying under the radar when maybe they shouldn't be

 

Devante Parker falls under shiny 2nd year no? Maybe it's because it's the offseason and dynasty is ruling the roost, but all I've heard throughout the offseason is how great Parker is going to be in Gase's offense.

 

Moncrief is heading into his 3rd season after doubling nearly every statistical category for a wide receiver.

 

Both of the aforementioned guys are getting drafted on average right now among the top 40 players selected. While his ADP hasn't been hit as of now, I look at T.Y. Hilton as the overlooked WR on the Colts.

 

So I simply ask: How are these guys under the radar?

 

FWIW too, the only "super deep sleeper" I suggested was Campanaro...so yeah, I get the purpose of the thread.

[giraldi02 470]

Someone who's been thrust into the shadows due to rookie fever as well as other moves made by the team this offseason is Jaelen Strong.

 

By most accounts, he's had a good offseason and has earned praise from Nuk. There's no guarantee that Will Fuller and/or Braxton Miller are going to supplant him in the lineup. He can be had at the end of nearly every draft. The Texans ran the most offensive plays in the NFL last season, so opportunity could be there for the WR2 in that offense to produce..

[jdon 28]

try not to laugh but I could see kendall wright catching 1200 yards... dude has skills, was banged up last year, Green-beckham and Matthews are all the talk but wright has done it in this league before...

 

I don't know if yeldon inspires either but I could see him stepping up to fill the touchdown void in max (there is no way bottles throws that many tds this year, the guys looking to Hurns are in for a disappointment)

 

and let me throw you a third one: mcfadden. dude isn't just going to disappear, but his aDP has.

[giraldi02 470]

try not to laugh but I could see kendall wright catching 1200 yards... dude has skills, was banged up last year, Green-beckham and Matthews are all the talk but wright has done it in this league before...

 

I don't know if yeldon inspires either but I could see him stepping up to fill the touchdown void in max (there is no way bottles throws that many tds this year, the guys looking to Hurns are in for a disappointment)

 

and let me throw you a third one: mcfadden. dude isn't just going to disappear, but his aDP has.

Yeldon is SLIDING in MFL10s. I don't get it. Ivory is gonna look a whole lot more normal when he's not behind that Jets O-line. I hope he continues to stay overlooked

[SpenceToons 70]

 

 

...Both of the aforementioned guys are getting drafted on average right now among the top 40 players selected. ....

 

The link to the rankings you supplied is based on 77 drafts. The ADP info on the FFToday front page has been updated and their 12 team PPR aggregation is culled from 1900 drafts that (supposedly) took place from 5/31 to 6/10. They show Moncrief as the 81^st selection and Parker as the 72^nd. While the position of Ezekiel Elliott rings a little more true in this latest aggregation as he comes in as the 18^th pick as opposed to the 33^rd that I expressed puzzlement about in the Elliott thread, I’m still willing to accept that there may be some staleness in these numbers.

 

So on the thought that your linked list might be more timely, I began to examine it with some intrigue. Then, bah, I saw that Adrian Peterson was the 23^rd overall pick, Jamaal Charles the 36^th , Matt Forte coming in at #60, and Corey Coleman being selected ahead of Doug Baldwin. (No matter what you might think of these last two individually, the former will have RG3 throwing to him while the latter will have Russell W). So I can’t take this link to the 77 drafts seriously as an authority on the question of whether Moncrief & co are being overlooked.

 

For general purposes beyond the scope of this thread, if you come across a site that offers deeper ADP info than this MFL list and more timely info than the FFToday list from FantasyFootballCalculator, I’d like to know about it.

[weepaws 2,460]

I'm sure McFaddens injury is hurting his ADP .

[LunaTick 29]

Teddy Bridgewater.

Why, stat extrapolation. Not surprising as Teddy's stats between he first year, playing in 13 games and second year, playing all 16 games wasn't much different. But among the differences was significant losses due to injury of the O Line. A facet of the game focused on during the FA this year. Actuallyexpect to see some valuable O linemen cut at end of preseason and picked up quickly by others (unless C John Sullivan and OT Phil Loadholt have not recovered from injury, etc).

 

Now I do not expect Teddy to go from 15 TD to 30 in one season. I possible but not likely, as is anything.

I do expect that he should have about 25 passing TD this season. 315 completions and 3600 yards. 10 INTs. If he becomes more aggressive, the Ints will to to 15 and the TD perhaps to 28.

 

Reasons

1. improved Oline

2. de emphasis on deep game

3. emphasis on possession game. Diggs and Treadwell are the feature of a possession type receiving corps. Diggs showed last year that he can get yards after.

4. adaption of the running game to benefit more the passing game.

5. defense that continues to improve

 

Note: Cordarell Patterson is on the bubble of making this team. His value is in returning and trick plays. Last year he regressed when during th eoffseason he didn't work on his game. including working with a mentor offered by zimmer. seems he now realizes he needed to work. but could be too little to late with the vikings. Actually i would not have been surprised had he been cut last offseason.

[typhus 13]

Vance McDonald.

With Vernon Davis gone, McDonald is the clear TE1 in San Fran, and he is already getting talked up by coaches during mini camp practices.

In a 12 team dynasty league, with 35 man rosters, I spent hours scouring the WW for any potential upside player at any position including IDPs, and was suprised when I came across McDonald still sitting there.

I know in most leagues he could/might be available, but with the roster size in this league, the WW is scoured.

He was a 2nd round pick in 2013, so the pedigree is there for a potential breakout this year.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Vance McDonald.

With Vernon Davis gone, McDonald is the clear TE1 in San Fran, and he is already getting talked up by coaches during mini camp practices.

In a 12 team dynasty league, with 35 man rosters, I spent hours scouring the WW for any potential upside player at any position including IDPs, and was suprised when I came across McDonald still sitting there.

I know in most leagues he could/might be available, but with the roster size in this league, the WW is scoured.

He was a 2nd round pick in 2013, so the pedigree is there for a potential breakout this year.

Interesting and one to watch. Chip isn't great utilizing his TEs, but he really may not have many other options with receiving core.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Teddy Bridgewater.

Why, stat extrapolation. Not surprising as Teddy's stats between he first year, playing in 13 games and second year, playing all 16 games wasn't much different. But among the differences was significant losses due to injury of the O Line. A facet of the game focused on during the FA this year. Actuallyexpect to see some valuable O linemen cut at end of preseason and picked up quickly by others (unless C John Sullivan and OT Phil Loadholt have not recovered from injury, etc).

 

Now I do not expect Teddy to go from 15 TD to 30 in one season. I possible but not likely, as is anything.

I do expect that he should have about 25 passing TD this season. 315 completions and 3600 yards. 10 INTs. If he becomes more aggressive, the Ints will to to 15 and the TD perhaps to 28.

 

Reasons

1. improved Oline

2. de emphasis on deep game

3. emphasis on possession game. Diggs and Treadwell are the feature of a possession type receiving corps. Diggs showed last year that he can get yards after.

4. adaption of the running game to benefit more the passing game.

5. defense that continues to improve

 

Note: Cordarell Patterson is on the bubble of making this team. His value is in returning and trick plays. Last year he regressed when during th eoffseason he didn't work on his game. including working with a mentor offered by zimmer. seems he now realizes he needed to work. but could be too little to late with the vikings. Actually i would not have been surprised had he been cut last offseason.

How do you see those receiving yards broken up amongst the backs, TEs, and receivers?

[weepaws 2,460]

Celek and Ertz had 140 targets in 2014 and 147 last season , so I agree with the poster about V McDonald , and also agree that Kelly's wr core has lots of question marks.

 

Good post about V McDonald .

 

Ps does he count on this post ?

[giraldi02 470]

Vance had a nice stretch last season. It'll be interesting to see whether its he or Celek that emerges as the 49ers primary pass catching tight end this year.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Celek and Ertz had 140 targets in 2014 and 147 last season , so I agree with the poster about V McDonald , and also agree that Kelly's wr core has lots of question marks.

 

Good post about V McDonald .

 

Ps does he count on this post ?

Well color my perception in correct. Good reason not to assume things before you look at real numbers. I never would've expected the TES to account for 100 receptions after watching that offense last year.

 

A real possibility for out producing his current value it sounds like in McDs.

[typhus 13]

Just one other guy other than McDonald that Ive been paying attention to that could be available is Ka'Deem Carey.

Sometimes owners fall asleep when vets like Forte move on, now with the Jets.

Langford is currently the RB1, but as we have all seen, the difference between an RB1 and an RB2 can be paper thin.

Just saying if you have an expendable player... ie.. a Kniles Davis just holding a roster spot,, I would rather invest in a younger RB like Carey that flashed when needed last season.

5'10 210lbs. 23 yrs old...

Always invest in upside, whenever you have room.

 

I have always used this philosophy when building Dynasty teams, and its payed off... I'm too the point were I'm cutting my only rostered Kicker, just so I can hold a WW player like Carey as long as I can, for evaluation, just in case Langford gets injured... carry no kicker to acquire potential talent... kickers can always be found by the time you start your season.

[giraldi02 470]

That Bears backfield is a quagmire. Jaquizz Rodgers might be the only true "third-down back" on that roster too.

[typhus 13]

That Bears backfield is a quagmire. Jaquizz Rodgers might be the only true "third-down back" on that roster too.

This is true, I just have Carey graded higher than Rodgers at this point.

I'm willing to invest more in a quagmire like you described, if I have the room, just because there is higher probability of just getting lucky sometimes.

We used to play this game avoiding the "quagmire" backfield,, now its a worthwhile gamble, when you consider the backfield fluctuation in todays NFL.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Just one other guy other than McDonald that Ive been paying attention to that could be available is Ka'Deem Carey.

Sometimes owners fall asleep when vets like Forte move on, now with the Jets.

Langford is currently the RB1, but as we have all seen, the difference between an RB1 and an RB2 can be paper thin.

Just saying if you have an expendable player... ie.. a Kniles Davis just holding a roster spot,, I would rather invest in a younger RB like Carey that flashed when needed last season.

5'10 210lbs. 23 yrs old...

Always invest in upside, whenever you have room.

 

I have always used this philosophy when building Dynasty teams, and its payed off... I'm too the point were I'm cutting my only rostered Kicker, just so I can hold a WW player like Carey as long as I can, for evaluation, just in case Langford gets injured... carry no kicker to acquire potential talent... kickers can always be found by the time you start your season.

Carey is horrible. I would rather take Jordan Howard