Aaron Hernandez, how do you value him? Your opinions?

[VermilionTiger 1]

PPR League

 

I'm having a REAL hard time figuring out what to do.

 

I have Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez(Flex). My RBs are Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray, with Rashad Jennings and Benjarvis Green-ellis on the bench. I'm really worried about injures for this position.

 

Am I valuing Aaron Hernandez too much for thinking I could get a very solid #2 RB for Hernandez and Green-Ellis?

 

Which RB's do you think are realistic grabs? Lynch, Charles, Jones-Drew, Richardson, Steven Jackson, Peterson, Fred Jackson

[Moemoney 8]

I'm really high on Hernandez this year. I love the way that the Pats find so many different ways to use him: TE, WR, RB... If you watch the preseason games, he and Brady are on the same page and he seems to be Brady's first read.

 

I'm not expecting Jimmy Graham's numbers, but I am expecting an improvement on his numbers from last year, which were pretty amazing.

[Portis26 0]

I value him as a back up RB - or a late round TE fantasy starter. He'll be fantasy relevant half the time - Just don't know which 8 games.

Good trade bait as well as a second guy to package with a semi stud in a 2fer deal that land who first/second round talent

[Super Cubs 132]

Unless something happens to Gronk I see him as putting up average TE numbers some big games some down games. I consider him a starter in most all leagues. As far as value I think it depends on how bad the other teams TE is. Unless a team is really deep at RB I don't think you would get that much of a up grade for him than what you already have.

[VermilionTiger 1]

So of the RBs I mentioned in the original post, which would be likely to get?

 

Should I jump on a Marshawn Lynch for Hernandez & Benjarvis trade?

[Super Cubs 132]

If you could get any of those RBs for that duo do it. I might stay away from AP.

[ralphster 274]

So of the RBs I mentioned in the original post, which would be likely to get?

 

Should I jump on a Marshawn Lynch for Hernandez & Benjarvis trade?

 

Two routes I could recommend:

 

1. Identify the person with the most need at TE and see if you like their RBs - much easier to trade with someone who wants who you've got to trade.

 

2. Identify the RB you want and see if you can't move Hernandez + ? for the RB in question.

 

If the guy with Lynch has a need for TE I'd jump to move AH & BJGE for him if he'd accept.

[VermilionTiger 1]

Two routes I could recommend:

 

1. Identify the person with the most need at TE and see if you like their RBs - much easier to trade with someone who wants who you've got to trade.

 

2. Identify the RB you want and see if you can't move Hernandez + ? for the RB in question.

 

If the guy with Lynch has a need for TE I'd jump to move AH & BJGE for him if he'd accept.

 

Yeah I was talking to him last night about it, he's interested.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,577]

make sure you site this is you are trying to sell for an RB1/2

 

According to the Boston Globe, Aaron Hernandez has "ascended to (Tom) Brady’s No. 1 option."

Suggesting the current pecking order goes Hernandez, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, the Globe's Greg Bedard is the second Boston writer to opine that Hernandez now tops the totem pole after a sterling training camp. Hernandez's seven targets in Friday's regular season dress rehearsal were three more than any other Pats pass catcher. It is evidence that Hernandez's role should only continue to grow, and that he's locked in as a top-four fantasy tight end despite the presence of more celebrated teammate Gronk.

[WR Guru 31]

Something has got to give in New England. Gronk and Welker are coming off monster years, Lloyd is arguably the most talented WR Brady has ever had not named Moss, and now you have beat writers touting Hernandez as "the guy". I'm pretty sure Brady is not going to throw for 7,000 yards, so one or two of those guys is going to have a disappointing season.

[donkeybalboa 2]

I am so hoping that Hernandez ascends in the touchdown area this season.

[Kent 228]

So of the RBs I mentioned in the original post, which would be likely to get?

 

Should I jump on a Marshawn Lynch for Hernandez & Benjarvis trade?

 

I got Hernandez in a TE friendly 12 team league in the early 5th. So you aren't getting any of those RBs for him. All those RBs went before the 4th round.

[Doozer 0]

I'm going to take Hernandez as early as 4.1. But I'm a lot higher on him than most people. 100-1200-8 30 carries 150 yards 1 td are his floor imo. But I'm irresponsibly high on him.

[TwentyFourSeven 23]

I'm going to take Hernandez as early as 4.1. But I'm a lot higher on him than most people. 100-1200-8 30 carries 150 yards 1 td are his floor imo. But I'm irresponsibly high on him.

 

I'm the same way. I'm very high on him and I'm not entirely sure why. Everyone gets 1 keeper, so after counting that as 1 round, I really got him at the end of the 4th.

[JediMaster 20]

I think he will have a pretty good year. Teams will most likely focus on Gronk which will help Hernandez.

[IGotWorms 3,310]

Something has got to give in New England. Gronk and Welker are coming off monster years, Lloyd is arguably the most talented WR Brady has ever had not named Moss, and now you have beat writers touting Hernandez as "the guy". I'm pretty sure Brady is not going to throw for 7,000 yards, so one or two of those guys is going to have a disappointing season.

 

Yup. Personally I think Gronk and Weller will be the ones to dissapoint, but it's really anyone's guess.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'm going to take Hernandez as early as 4.1. But I'm a lot higher on him than most people. 100-1200-8 30 carries 150 yards 1 td are his floor imo. But I'm irresponsibly high on him.

 

Def one of those players I get a breakout feeling for. I can see him having that type of season but that sure is an awful high floor. I'm high on him, especially value wise, compared to Gronk and Welker...who I won't own this year.

 

I've been yet to take Hernandez but I'd like to own him. Been having a tough time pulling the trigger for him with the other wrs and rbs around his ADP...and decent replacement TE talent.

[Doozer 0]

Def one of those players I get a breakout feeling for. I can see him having that type of season but that sure is an awful high floor. I'm high on him, especially value wise, compared to Gronk and Welker...who I won't own this year.

 

I've been yet to take Hernandez but I'd like to own him. Been having a tough time pulling the trigger for him with the other wrs and rbs around his ADP...and decent replacement TE talent.

Like I said I'm drinking the kool-aid, and it's like black tar heroin. Just one of those players who my gut says, ###### he's going to have a big year. Also dynasty owners, he's 22 year old.

[Moemoney 8]

Drink my friends.....(4th round for me twice)..... I don't want to be the only one at the party an hour and a half early!

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Well, he might be a little less "hungry" now that he has signed his extension.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extra_points/2012/08/hernandez_locke.html

 

The Patriots are going to have the tight end of duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at least through the 2018 season.

 

The contract Hernandez signed today is a five-year extension worth a maximum value of $40 million and includes a $12.5-million signing bonus. Hernandez is guaranteed $16 million, with a practical guarantee of $16.4 million.

 

The extension, which still includes his the $545,000 and $570,000 base salaries he was to make the next two season, averages $7.5 million. That's the second-highest extension in league history for a tight end in league.

 

Brian Murphy, a Medfield native, negotiated the deal for Athletes First.

 

The $12.5 million signing bonus is the highest ever for a tight end, and $9.5 million will be paid in the next seven months.

 

Hernandez's deal averages more the first four years than Gronkowski's contract, and has more in true guaranteed money. Gronkowski was guaranteed $12 million, and another $5 million if he was on the roster in 2015.

 

Hernandez's deal is also one year shorter than Gronkowski, and Hernandez will be 29 when it expires.

 

[kmbryant09 1]

I'm going to take Hernandez as early as 4.1. But I'm a lot higher on him than most people. 100-1200-8 30 carries 150 yards 1 td are his floor imo. But I'm irresponsibly high on him.

I'm sorry, nobody's floor is 100 catches.

[wazu 14]

I'm sorry, nobody's floor is 100 catches.

 

Agreed. These are "best tight end performance ever" numbers. I'm a fan of his and drafted at 5.8, but this would be the homerun scenario, and in no way a "floor" for anybody.

[jmsne 0]

Agreed. These are "best tight end performance ever" numbers. I'm a fan of his and drafted at 5.8, but this would be the homerun scenario, and in no way a "floor" for anybody.

 

I think the addition of lloyd is going to hurt his production.. I mean there are literally only so many passes to be caught in this offense.

Welker - 100

Gronk - 80ish

various RBs and secondary WRs - 70ish maybe more depending on rb numbers

 

 

thats 250 before we add in

 

Hernandez, lloyd and branch if brady completes 400 passes which is what he completed last season that only leaves 150 for those three guys. If branch gets 40 that leaves 110 + whatever brady gets over 400 for the other two. I would think that its a 60 catch season maybe 70 at best for hernandez.

[kmbryant09 1]

I think the addition of lloyd is going to hurt his production.. I mean there are literally only so many passes to be caught in this offense.

Welker - 100

Gronk - 80ish

various RBs and secondary WRs - 70ish maybe more depending on rb numbers

 

 

thats 250 before we add in

 

Hernandez, lloyd and branch if brady completes 400 passes which is what he completed last season that only leaves 150 for those three guys. If branch gets 40 that leaves 110 + whatever brady gets over 400 for the other two. I would think that its a 60 catch season maybe 70 at best for hernandez.

I'd break it down like this:

Welker - 100 catches

Gronkowski - 70 catches

Hernadez - 80 catches

Lloyd - 55 catches

Branch - 25 catches

RB's/other WR's - 60 catches

 

390 completions for Brady - which is approximately 66% completion on just under 600 passes.

[jmsne 0]

I'd break it down like this:

Welker - 100 catches

Gronkowski - 70 catches

Hernadez - 80 catches

Lloyd - 55 catches

Branch - 25 catches

RB's/other WR's - 60 catches

 

390 completions for Brady - which is approximately 66% completion on just under 600 passes.

 

I think thats more wishful thinking than anything else.. Branch could lose catches perhaps but giving 15 of gronks catches away and just giving them to an inferior player for what reason? We also took away 22 catches from welker but if he is healthy all season that number will be higher.

[Doozer 0]

I'm sorry, nobody's floor is 100 catches.

Wes Welker would like to have a word with you.