Looking Ahead to FF Redrafts: 2011

[Fumbleweed 437]

This is something I like to post on site every mid-December and then update it each week for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2010 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. It will eventually include a fourth round, but we'll just go with three for today.

 

Round One:

 

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Arian Foster

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Chris Johnson

5. Michael Turner

6. Michael Vick

7. Jamaal Charles

8. Andre Johnson

9. LeSean McCoy

10. Peyton Manning

11. Darren McFadden

12. Aaron Rodgers

 

Round Two:

 

13. Peyton Hillis

14. Drew Brees

15. Frank Gore

16. Roddy White

17. Rashard Mendenhall

18. Philip Rivers

19. Ray Rice

20. Calvin Johnson

21. Tom Brady

22. Hakeem Nicks

23. DeSean Jackson

24. Knowshon Moreno

 

Round Three:

 

25. Greg Jennings

26. Steven Jackson

27. Dwayne Bowe

28. Jonathan Stewart

29. Reggie Wayne

30. Ahmad Bradshaw

31. Larry Fitzgerald

32. Antonio Gates

33. Tony Romo

34. Matt Forte

35. Brandon Lloyd

36. Cedric Benson

[Chronic Husker 85]

Pretty good list. Miles Austin will be on that list somewhere 2/3.

[Fumbleweed 437]

Pretty good list. Miles Austin will be on that list somewhere 2/3.

 

Good call...I have Austin in the fourth round right now as it's hard to say who'll be the #1 guy in Dallas next year between him and Bryant. He has a good rapport with Romo, though, so Austin at the #1 is the stronger possibility.

[uwilose123 2]

I do think Ray Rice will be a late 1st rounder. No way I would pass on getting him as a 2nd back next year....even with McGahee.

[Chronic Husker 85]

Good call...I have Austin in the fourth round right now as it's hard to say who'll be the #1 guy in Dallas next year between him and Bryant. He has a good rapport with Romo, though, so Austin at the #1 is the stronger possibility.

I'm probably taking Bryant over Fitz and Lloyd. All speculation at this point but I can't imagine Zona's QB situation getting any better and Orton could be on his way out.

 

The Bryant/Austin situation is shaping up to be similar to Wayne and Harrison of a few years ago. Both will be studs but it's only a matter of time before Bryant eclipses Austin.

[Gepetto 999]

Fumbleweed,

 

What round do you have for Ryan Torain, Mike Williams Tampa, and Jermichael Finley?

 

I've got tough keeper decision coming up and can keep Torain for a 17th round pick next year, Mike Williams Tampa for a 16th round pick next year, or Jermichael Finley for a 5th round pick.

[mhaggy 0]

I think Bowe is going to be one of the toughest guys to rank next year, depending on how he ends the season.

 

I would bump Jennings up - he would be my #2 WR after Andre. I wouldn't have JStew that high unless DeAngelo is 100% gone, plus JStew's been decent but he had hardly taken the lead back role by the horns this year. I would be nervous having JStew as my #2 RB just cause there's big bust possibility there (although there's also a lot of upside). I'd flip Reggie Wayne and DeJax just because DeJax and Maclin can't seem to both have big games on the same night and I imagine that with another year of experience + how good he's been Maclin's role in the offense will increase even more. Also, I don't think I'd have Lloyd in my top-3 rounds just cause Orton is probably going to be gone and I think that there is absolutely no way brick-hands Brandon Lloyd comes anywhere close to replicating the numbers he is putting up this year.

 

@Gepetto: it's TB Mike Williams in the 16th and it isn't close IMO.

[Gepetto 999]

@Gepetto: it's TB Mike Williams in the 16th and it isn't close IMO.

 

Thanks mhaggy!

[mhaggy 0]

Oh, also, Ced Benson wouldn't be in my top-3 rds. Palmer's play is dragging the whole team down, Marvin Lewis is going to be gone which means the new coach is likely to give a lot more play time to Bernard Scott so they can see what they have with him.

[Dan6 0]

This is pretty funny. I had the WORST keepers in a 2 man keeper league coming into 2010. I kept a couple free agent picks and hoped they'd be serviceable. Hakeem Nicks for a 14th and Arian Foster for a 17th. I have them next year for a 13th and 16th. Ben Tate broke his ankle the day before we had to announce keepers,, and he went on IR the day they were due or I'd have kept Michael Bush.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,634]

Oh, also, Ced Benson wouldn't be in my top-3 rds. Palmer's play is dragging the whole team down, Marvin Lewis is going to be gone which means the new coach is likely to give a lot more play time to Bernard Scott so they can see what they have with him.

 

Benson and Palmer are both Free Agents I believe as well

[edjr 5,644]

This is pretty funny. I had the WORST keepers in a 2 man keeper league coming into 2010. I kept a couple free agent picks and hoped they'd be serviceable. Hakeem Nicks for a 14th and Arian Foster for a 17th. I have them next year for a 13th and 16th. Ben Tate broke his ankle the day before we had to announce keepers,, and he went on IR the day they were due or I'd have kept Michael Bush.

 

Why keeper leagues are retarded that do keepers by where they were drafted.

[Patmos 2]

I think Bowe is going to be one of the toughest guys to rank next year, depending on how he ends the season.

 

I would bump Jennings up - he would be my #2 WR after Andre. I wouldn't have JStew that high unless DeAngelo is 100% gone, plus JStew's been decent but he had hardly taken the lead back role by the horns this year. I would be nervous having JStew as my #2 RB just cause there's big bust possibility there (although there's also a lot of upside). I'd flip Reggie Wayne and DeJax just because DeJax and Maclin can't seem to both have big games on the same night and I imagine that with another year of experience + how good he's been Maclin's role in the offense will increase even more. Also, I don't think I'd have Lloyd in my top-3 rounds just cause Orton is probably going to be gone and I think that there is absolutely no way brick-hands Brandon Lloyd comes anywhere close to replicating the numbers he is putting up this year.

 

@Gepetto: it's TB Mike Williams in the 16th and it isn't close IMO.

 

I agree with everything stated here. I will also add a couple more points: (1) I avoid older WRs like Wayne. He may have several good years left, but I won't pick him (and I'm a Colts fan), (2) Another reason to lower Lloyd: I place a huge emphasis on the Coordinators and the changes from season-to-season, and Josh McDaniels leaving will have a huge negative impact on everyone in the Denver passing game.

[RSersen 0]

Oh, also, Ced Benson wouldn't be in my top-3 rds. Palmer's play is dragging the whole team down, Marvin Lewis is going to be gone which means the new coach is likely to give a lot more play time to Bernard Scott so they can see what they have with him.

 

Seriously. I traded for Benson and Mendenhall before the season began, and I haven't used Ced once. Sometimes I forget I even have the guy on my roster.

 

Where he gets drafted next year depends on where he plays. If he's in Cincy, he's got a struggling QB, and Bernard Scott is going to keep taking carries week by week - I wouldn't even draft him. If he leaves in FA and ends up in the right situation, 3rd round sounds about right.

[Fumbleweed 437]

You guys might be right about Benson, but his performance yesterday shows that he's still capable of churning out big games. Hence the third round consideration no matter what team he plays for...

[MedStudent 56]

Bowe is a pretty big mystery. I don't know what to make out of his season. I'll probably stay away from him next year.

[giraldi02 470]

As much as I love Peyton Hillis, I'm not willing at least as of right now to spend a 1st round, or early 2nd round pick, on him because I just don't know what Hardesty's role is going to be once he comes back to the team. I'm glad to see McCoy that high, and he'll definitely warrant a high selection particularly in PPR leagues.

 

Miles Austin will be an interesting selection next season. He most certainly will take a slight hit on his draft stock, which means potential steal if you can get him in the middle or end of the third round.

 

It's fun to speculate right now...but I'm still too sore because of the lousy performance of all my playoff teams the past two weeks. Oh well...One out of four in the title game isn't bad I guess

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Lst me pick 6th and take Vick, DJax, and Fitz or Gates. I'll gladly take my chances with later RB's.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Good call...I have Austin in the fourth round right now as it's hard to say who'll be the #1 guy in Dallas next year between him and Bryant. He has a good rapport with Romo, though, so Austin at the #1 is the stronger possibility.

Lets not forget VJax either.

[RLLD 3,519]

What about Favre?

[ChiTownKev 0]

I have the option of keeping Sidney Rice or M. Williams (TB). I'd lose my last round pick for either. Coming into this season, Rice was considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 WR. Obviously Favre won't be back next year, and the Vikings QB situation looks dreadful right now. Is keeping Williams over Rice pretty much a no-brainer?

[mhaggy 0]

As much as I love Peyton Hillis, I'm not willing at least as of right now to spend a 1st round, or early 2nd round pick, on him because I just don't know what Hardesty's role is going to be once he comes back to the team.

 

I guess this could be a concern, but I wouldn't let an unproven rookie RB who missed all of 2010 and doesn't have a single carry in his NFL career affect the way you view the #2 RB in fantasy football. Hillis is legit and I would draft him with confidence next year.

 

Is keeping Williams over Rice pretty much a no-brainer?

 

I love TB Mike Williams for next year. Freeman is legit and TB Mike Williams is gonna take another step forward next year

[De Novo 0]

This is something I like to post on site every mid-December and then update it each week for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2010 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. It will eventually include a fourth round, but we'll just go with three for today.

 

Round One:

 

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Arian Foster

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Chris Johnson

5. Michael Turner

6. Michael Vick

7. Jamaal Charles

8. Andre Johnson

9. LeSean McCoy

10. Peyton Manning

11. Darren McFadden

12. Aaron Rodgers

 

Round Two:

 

13. Peyton Hillis

14. Drew Brees

15. Frank Gore

16. Roddy White

17. Rashard Mendenhall

18. Philip Rivers

19. Ray Rice

20. Calvin Johnson

21. Tom Brady

22. Hakeem Nicks

23. DeSean Jackson

24. Knowshon Moreno

 

Round Three:

 

25. Greg Jennings

26. Steven Jackson

27. Dwayne Bowe

28. Jonathan Stewart

29. Reggie Wayne

30. Ahmad Bradshaw

31. Larry Fitzgerald

32. Antonio Gates

33. Tony Romo

34. Matt Forte

35. Brandon Lloyd

36. Cedric Benson

Quick reaction:

CJ goes 2 or 3 because of the upside.

MJD knee and workload/age is a concern.

Turner - see above

Manning at 10 is too high - he looks human this year - age might be catching up

Hillis at 13 - no way. Will be a committee and he has worn down.

Gore at 15 - has gotten hurt at the end of the season most years. I think 15 is fair, but I don't love it.

Ray Rice at 19 is just insane. The guy is a lock for a top 10 pick.

Moreno at 24 with the injuries is too high for me

Jennings at 25 too high - he did his damage with Finley injured.

SJax at 26 is just too low.

Bowe at 27 - almost no way he repeats this year. Too high.

Stewart at 28 is a gamble but not crazy.

Benson at 36 is too high. I won't be stuck holding the bag on this guy.

 

You are missing Rivers and Miles Austin. They are top 36 picks, easy.

[SUXBNME 1,349]

I'm prolly a moron, but if I get #1 option next year, it's Vick. (depending on the offseason moves, of course)

 

#2 - AP

#3 - Foster

#4 - Tommy Maddoux

 

Also, good list, Fumbles

[bswarriors 0]

I am most interested in the moves that happen and how that affects the potential fantasy draft. not that he had a super year but mcnabb really helped moss this year especially in a ppr league, even though mcnabb didn't have the greatest year. i had moss as my 3rd wr drafted in the 7th and it was a real solid pick. how would a mcnabb or a kolb(if its possible he can be moved) affect guys like fitz and wells. think how well bradford and also sjax could play if there were more weapons in STL. it just seems like sjax is a forgotten man stuck on such bad teams but with the development of bradford and a couple of more offensive weapons he could be in for a good year.

[thesitedoc 5]

When Finley returns Jennings will drop down a few spots. GB was really going to feed him the ball and they were doing that until the injury.

 

Rice could be Round 1 because it think McGahee could be gone next year and that would make Rice more of a featured back.

[De Novo 0]

When Finley returns Jennings will drop down a few spots. GB was really going to feed him the ball and they were doing that until the injury.

 

Rice could be Round 1 because it think McGahee could be gone next year and that would make Rice more of a featured back.

Without Finley, Jennings is a mid to late 2nd rounder. With him, I think he's a mid 3rd rounder at best.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Watching tonight's game, anyone picking Turtle Turner 5th overall will be really sorry.

[murf74 461]

definitely not a year to have a top pick. I am pulling for something around 7.

[Tom C 0]

Tampa Mike over Fitzgerald and Lloyd.

[GMENMANIA 0]

Quick reaction:

CJ goes 2 or 3 because of the upside.

MJD knee and workload/age is a concern.

Turner - see above

Manning at 10 is too high - he looks human this year - age might be catching up

Hillis at 13 - no way. Will be a committee and he has worn down.

Gore at 15 - has gotten hurt at the end of the season most years. I think 15 is fair, but I don't love it.

Ray Rice at 19 is just insane. The guy is a lock for a top 10 pick.

Moreno at 24 with the injuries is too high for me

Jennings at 25 too high - he did his damage with Finley injured.

SJax at 26 is just too low.

Bowe at 27 - almost no way he repeats this year. Too high.

Stewart at 28 is a gamble but not crazy.

Benson at 36 is too high. I won't be stuck holding the bag on this guy.

 

You are missing Rivers and Miles Austin. They are top 36 picks, easy.

 

I agree with everything except for Bowe being too low. He's extremely legit and will continue to be at least a top 10 fantasy WR with the upside of a top 5 guy. Defenses can't consistently double cover him because KC has a very strong running game, which means he won't get shut down very often (obviously match-ups against Revis, Asomugha, or Bailey are bad for any receiver). Also, he's pretty much the only talented receiver on his team and a very talented one at that, which means he will get steady looks every game. Finally, he has a mediocre to good QB throwing him the ball. Add all of these things up and you get a great fantasy WR.

[DocNiner 45]

Nice list there Fumbleweed. I see you have Hakeem Nicks as the 4th receiver taken. I'd gladly take him at #22 next year and I have a gut feeling he's gonna end up a top 3 WR in 2011.

[edjr 5,644]

Turner is too slow, it's time for the falcons to give the rock to Snelling

[kevsters 0]

I'm just shooting spit balls here.

 

1) Arian Foster

 

2) Adrian Peterson

 

3) Chris Johnson

 

4) Lesean McCoy

 

5) Jamaal Charles

 

6) Michael Turner

 

7) Ray Rice

 

8) Stephen Jackson

 

9) Tom Brady

 

10) MJD

 

What do you guys think? Thought about throwing in a wide out, but not sure who I should put in the top ten.

[The Next Generation 10]

Vick needs to be in there, probably top 5. He's a QB + 1/2 an RB.

[De Novo 0]

I agree with everything except for Bowe being too low. He's extremely legit and will continue to be at least a top 10 fantasy WR with the upside of a top 5 guy. Defenses can't consistently double cover him because KC has a very strong running game, which means he won't get shut down very often (obviously match-ups against Revis, Asomugha, or Bailey are bad for any receiver). Also, he's pretty much the only talented receiver on his team and a very talented one at that, which means he will get steady looks every game. Finally, he has a mediocre to good QB throwing him the ball. Add all of these things up and you get a great fantasy WR.

I tend not to value WRs very highlighy. 27th overall is right around the #6 WR for me. I don't see Bowe as the #6 WR. I think it's a gamble, not crazy, but I wouldn't take that risk.

[MedStudent 56]

I targeted Nicks in the 5th round this year and really came through for me. I still think he will be an excellent fantasy wide receiver next year but I don't think I'll take him because I am afraid he will go too high. I watched him a lot this season and my concern with him is his mental aptitude. So many of Eli Mannings interceptions were from mistakes by Nicks. Either running the wrong routes or having the ball bounce off his hands into a defensive players hands. He has a load of talent but has really hurt the Giants in the turnover game. With Steve Smith and mannigham also on the team, I just wonder if eli will get sick and tired of these mental mistakes and start throwing to him less.

 

I may be tempted to take Vick very very high. I usually punt on the qb position but he is a special fantasy player in that offense, My only concern is that he is so injury prone with his style of play.

[Kris-styles 0]

Fumbleweed,

 

What round do you have for Ryan Torain, Mike Williams Tampa, and Jermichael Finley?

 

I've got tough keeper decision coming up and can keep Torain for a 17th round pick next year, Mike Williams Tampa for a 16th round pick next year, or Jermichael Finley for a 5th round pick.

 

I was a huge Finley fan coming into this, he was my sixth round pick. The injury might make him like Daniels was this year so I wouldn't waste a 5th rounder on him for next year, especially given your other options. I'll take him late as a 2nd TE with the expectation that he wouldn't be ready until mid season at best.

 

Williams for a 16th round picks sounds good to me. You never know what will happen in Washington.

[Kris-styles 0]

This is something I like to post on site every mid-December and then update it each week for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2010 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. It will eventually include a fourth round, but we'll just go with three for today.

 

Round One:

 

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Arian Foster

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Chris Johnson

5. Michael Turner

6. Michael Vick

7. Jamaal Charles

8. Andre Johnson

9. LeSean McCoy

10. Peyton Manning

11. Darren McFadden

12. Aaron Rodgers

 

Round Two:

 

13. Peyton Hillis

14. Drew Brees

15. Frank Gore

16. Roddy White

17. Rashard Mendenhall

18. Philip Rivers

19. Ray Rice

20. Calvin Johnson

21. Tom Brady

22. Hakeem Nicks

23. DeSean Jackson

24. Knowshon Moreno

 

Round Three:

 

25. Greg Jennings

26. Steven Jackson

27. Dwayne Bowe

28. Jonathan Stewart

29. Reggie Wayne

30. Ahmad Bradshaw

31. Larry Fitzgerald

32. Antonio Gates

33. Tony Romo

34. Matt Forte

35. Brandon Lloyd

36. Cedric Benson

 

Where is Wallace? I would take him over Fitz and Llyod in the third round all day, even in a PPR league. In a PPR league if he could get a few more targets I would bump him up over Bowe and Jennings.

[p00h 85]

Vick needs to be in there, probably top 5. He's a QB + 1/2 an RB.

vick is #1 in any scoring format IMO. He is a high end QB1 and a RB2(borderline rb1) in 1 effing player. Zero doubt in my mind who i'd take first if he was there anywhere in the 1st, including the 1st overall pick...