2016 RB draft strategy

[murf74 461]

Drafting only 2 starters and waiting a while for #3rb to draft (like Doug Martin area round 2015). Stocking up on other positions then last few round grab 2 handcuffs to my starters.

Sure I will play the waivers but handcuffs I believe are more valuable than they have ever been

After losing Charles and Forte I see the light I used to avoid handcuffs

[ZeroTolerance 584]

The catch with handcuffs is that the guy you try to handcuff seems to end up injured last (usually by the point that you have had to use that roster spot to make up for other injuries/bye weeks...as happened to me last year with Bernard/Hill). Also, the handcuff at the start of the draft isn't necessarily the one who takes the job after the injury (see: Knile Davis, Fred Jackson, David Johnson).

[bfros 53]

My take-away from this year is this:

 

1. you better have *at least* 2 WRs by round 4.

 

2. Probably should roster 1 stud RB and his backup by round 4 as well. If possible, draft a RB1 that has a solid backup on a high scoring team.

 

3. Wait on QB. Wait wait wait.

 

4. Try to talk yourself into taking Gronk in round 1

[Law 241]

Here is my new strategy for 2016: fade early and often, grab the hot undrafted waiver commodities, get stronger as the season goes, and dominate the playoffs to victory.

 

This is contrary to my previous strategy of the last 15+ years which is: draft exceedingly well, race out of the gate, win and win again, slowly fade down the stretch as injuries set in and others grab the waiver claims, wimper into the playoffs, and end up the highest scoring 4th team finisher, yet again.

[Fireballer 2,642]

Sitting pretty...went Brown Gronk Miller Martin in a 12 teamer and waited on Palmer at QB. Plugged Ryan Mathews in on his good early season games. Had good luck streaming Ds also. Really came down to being lucky. Last 3 yrs, havent taken RB in first 2rounds

Edited December 15, 2015 by Mike FF Today
spelling!

[nobody 2,673]

I'm never taking a quarterback early again. Good ones are so, so, so easy to find late. It's a waste of a pick.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Not drafting a QB at all. Not taking anything but wrs or Gronk rnd 1-3 then loading up on RB. all lotto tickets back half of the draft and high end cuffs if applicable.

 

Draft is a small, minor part of the year. I drafted a total of 3 decent players, the rest busts and still made the playoffs. Waivers and still Dutiful free agency is far more important. Jump on upside players and especially the hot defenses.

[weepaws 3,193]

I'm going to pass on the first three rounds . And start my draft in the fourth round and like posted above fill in with free agents , when others start to lose their top picks due to injuries .

[murf74 461]

I'm going to pass on the first three rounds . And start my draft in the fourth round and like posted above fill in with free agents , when others start to lose their top picks due to injuries .

Excellent summary of 2015.

[tanatastic 2,062]

I'm going to pass on the first three rounds . And start my draft in the fourth round and like posted above fill in with free agents , when others start to lose their top picks due to injuries .

This would have prob been best for me in a certain league. Just skip the picks altogether rather than start busts I feel pressured to start because I drafted them high.

[Larry David 20]

The way the NFL is trending, I'm going to draft the third string RB and fifth string WR for every team. This way, I'll have an unbeatable team by week 4.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

So basically everyone here is now going some sort of RB Zero?

 

Weird.

[murf74 461]

So basically everyone here is now going some sort of RB Zero?

 

Weird.

I am more for the 1.5 RB theory meaning there is no use drafting your RB without his .5 handcuff anymore. And when your handcuff is used better grab his handcuff too. Ask Rawls owners

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

I am more for the 1.5 RB theory meaning there is no use drafting your RB without his .5 handcuff anymore. And when your handcuff is used better grab his handcuff too. Ask Rawls owners

 

Right, but given some of those handcuffs are actually good targets for true RB Zero guys spending that early draft equity on a non starter might be costly.

[murf74 461]

 

Right, but given some of those handcuffs are actually good targets for true RB Zero guys spending that early draft equity on a non starter might be costly.

No I would not draft handcuffs early

[weepaws 3,193]

I think everyone now is just blowing off steam , it's been a tough ride this season oh my soul .

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

No I would not draft handcuffs early

 

Where do you think you'll be able to get guys like Rawls, West, Karlos, DeAngelo next year? Those guys are going to be 6th to 8th round picks and ideal targets for RB zero guys looking for 10PPR points out of a RB.

[murf74 461]

 

Where do you think you'll be able to get guys like Rawls, West, Karlos, DeAngelo next year? Those guys are going to be 6th to 8th round picks and ideal targets for RB zero guys looking for 10PPR points out of a RB.

You named 4 RBs and assume a PPR for some reason.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

You named 4 RBs and assume a PPR for some reason.

 

PPR is blowing up in popularity which is why I mentioned.

 

But fair enough, name examples of handcuffs for RB's who will be drafted in the top 24 – presumably available in their traditional late rounds that would make your 1.5 draft strategy viable without effecting your mid round picks.

 

In leagues with rational bench sizes your strategy is difficult because you're sacrificing early season roster space (on mid to mid-late round picks) for viable weekly starters. Your hedging injury to one of your own top players while sacrificing a starter, and probably reaching on a pick to secure that backup. A much better strategy is (if standard waiver priority) would be to maintain a prime waiver while drafting (starting) value in mid, mid-late rounds and only taking handcuffs in late rounds. But again, I have no idea who those backups are – because looking at the top 15 RB's or so, all of their handcuffs will be drafted in the top 10 rounds in most drafts.

[tanatastic 2,062]

 

Where do you think you'll be able to get guys like Rawls, West, Karlos, DeAngelo next year? Those guys are going to be 6th to 8th round picks and ideal targets for RB zero guys looking for 10PPR points out of a RB.

Rawls is going in rnd 1-2 if hes the workhorse for seattle and Lynch is not there.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Rawls is going in rnd 1-2 if hes the workhorse for seattle and Lynch is not there.

 

Agreed. But outside of retirement (at 30 for a diehard competitor like Lynch?) I don't see Seattle releasing him in 2016. Even less so if they get into trouble the next three weekends w/ the lack of RB's on the roster.

[weepaws 3,193]

I don't expect to see Lynch back with the Seahawks next season . He looks finished to me . Rawls was the better player when he had the opportunity to play .

[IMMensaMind 462]

I'm going to suggest to the rest of the league that they draft their teams and allow me to build a team entirely from waivers, as long as I'm given first waiver priority every week.

 

I'll kill everyone.

[tanatastic 2,062]

I don't expect to see Lynch back with the Seahawks next season . He looks finished to me . Rawls was the better player when he had the opportunity to play .

Yea I can't pretend to know for sure but it's widely believed he's done with them. Why would the Hawks pay his huge salary when he's used up and past his sell by date? I'm pretty sure I know what will happen. There will be a falling out and Lynch will be cut. He will then say he wants to retire. Then a little later he will change his mind when some teams come knocking and pay him a bunch for a 1-2 year deal. He could very well go on to play well for that team, but the rest of that is my official prediction.

[Maulers1973 117]

I don't fully get the "handcuff" thing. I'd rather have a proven guy that I can go with rather than the b/u just getting thrust into the starting role due to injury.

 

For example, this year I had RB1 Eddie Lacy. I could have drafted Starks as a handcuff. Instead, I drafted Doug Martin as my RB3. So, which is better? Seems obvious to me.

 

If you drafted Charles as your RB1. Would you want C West as your RB3 or maybe Lamar Miller?

 

Ryan Matthews was the handcuff to Demarco Murray. What a disaster that would turn out to be!

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

I am still undecided. I think we have to see how the ADP works out before the drafts. I mean from the discussion here it seems the top 16-18 WR's will all be gone by round 2. I usually try and grab a solid RB in one of the first 3 rounds. Granted that player may bust but atleast you can make a decent starting lineup until your late flyers pan out.

 

I def will continue to grab 3 WRs' in the first 5 rounds if not 4.

[Maulers1973 117]

The only time I think it makes perfect sense is if you know the offense has a great offensive line. For example, it makes perfect sense for Bell owners to have grabbed Williams especially with Bell serving a suspension. Outside of that, I don't think handcuffs make very much sense. In most cases, I'd rather have the next best available guy who might be a starter on another team.

[Mr Neil 63]

I got Rawls as a 8th round keeper and Simms as a 11th round keeper if they let Martin walk or someone overpays him. Aside from that I'll start taking RBs round 4-8 and just take Dalvin Cook as an RB1 if he goes to a decent team. The rookie RB class is loaded this year.

[ravenwood 1]

I've been playing fantasy football for 12 years and have always hoovered RBs at every opportunity. After spending 55% of my budget on Bell and Forte, I think the time has come to say no mas. Probably better to take four middle to lower tier RBs in the hope that two pan out and invest heavily in the WR posiiton (in PR League), I've tried to hang on to the stud RB theory way past its usefullness.

[Mr Neil 63]

The fact that Shaun Draughn is a high end RB2 and Theo Riddick is a low end RB2 both in ppr proves the day of drafting a stud RB is no more

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

I don't fully get the "handcuff" thing. I'd rather have a proven guy that I can go with rather than the b/u just getting thrust into the starting role due to injury.

 

I don't fully get the "handcuff" thing. I'd rather have a proven guy that I can go with rather than the b/u just getting thrust into the starting role due to injury.

For example, this year I had RB1 Eddie Lacy. I could have drafted Starks as a handcuff. Instead, I drafted Doug Martin as my RB3. So, which is better? Seems obvious to me.

If you drafted Charles as your RB1. Would you want C West as your RB3 or maybe Lamar Miller?

Ryan Matthews was the handcuff to Demarco Murray. What a disaster that would turn out to be!

 

 

The term 'handcuff' is sort of a misnomer these days given how many backfields are divided in workload and the viability of backups as weekly fantasy starters.

 

However 'real' handcuffs are relevant because it provides owners the ability to avoid the dreaded game time decisions – particularly for Thursday night, late day, Sunday night and Monday night games. A fine example would be Lynch and Rawls during the middle of this season. A Lynch/Rawls owner doesn't have to start a lessor player in a 10am game because Lynch is Questionable for MNF. They can wait and start the guy who plays.

 

As you point out, it makes little sense to sacrifice draft equity or reach for a handcuff over a better player. Obviously ADP plays here. Of course you're going to take Doug Martin as your 3rd RB before the un-drafted Starks. You would take Starks as one of your last picks if were nervous about Lacy. This has been a common strategy for as long as I can remember.

 

Like @tantastic, some are saying that they would take both RB's sooner then later – something I view as a silly draft strategy. The ADP and price tag for the handcuffs he's alluding to are far too high to sacrifice for a bench spot over another weekly starter – especially in leagues with reasonable bench sizes and/or when you factor in bye weeks. Since injuries are unpredictable an owner should leverage ADP, draft flow and waiver priority when constructing their roster – not tunnel vision or recency bias.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

I got Rawls as a 8th round keeper and Simms as a 11th round keeper if they let Martin walk or someone overpays him. Aside from that I'll start taking RBs round 4-8 and just take Dalvin Cook as an RB1 if he goes to a decent team. The rookie RB class is loaded this year.

 

I wonder when owners will finally stop over paying for rookie RB's.

[tanatastic 2,062]

 

I wonder when owners will finally stop over paying for rookie RB's.

Theres usually a couple values in rnd 4 that pay off. Then theres years like this with Gordon and Abdullah.