Looking ahead to 2008 Drafts...

[Fumbleweed 426]

This is cut and pasted from an article that I wrote. I normally post it on here in late December to begin some discussion on the subject. Anyway, here it is. It's way preliminary, obviously. We don't know how various situations will shake out...so it's just an initial glance at how things might go in a redraft:

 

Round One

 

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson

2. RB Steven Jackson

3. RB Brian Westbrook

4. RB Adrian Peterson

5. RB Joseph Addai

6. RB Marion Barber III

7. QB Tom Brady

8. RB Frank Gore

9. WR Randy Moss

10. RB Clinton Portis

11. RB Willie Parker

12. RB Larry Johnson

 

This assumes a couple of things: One, that Marion Barber becomes the true feature back in Dallas and...Two, that Randy Moss stays in New England.

 

Round Two

 

13. RB Willis McGahee

14. WR Terrell Owens

15. RB Marshawn Lynch

16. WR Reggie Wayne

17. QB Peyton Manning

18. RB Jamal Lewis

19. WR Braylon Edwards

20. QB Tony Romo

21. WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh

22. RB Ronnie Brown

23. RB Ryan Grant

24. WR Steve Smith

 

Seems awfully high for Jamal Lewis, but after trashing him the last couple of seasons, I'll give him some love given that he's behind a great offensive line. Also, this is assuming Ronnie Brown is ready to roll by the beginning of the season and has no real competition for the job in Miami.

 

Round Three

 

25. WR Chad Johnson

26. WR Larry Fitzgerald

27. WR Torry Holt

28. RB Laurence Maroney

29. RB Brandon Jacobs

30. QB Drew Brees

31. RB Maurice Jones-Drew

32. WR Andre Johnson

33. RB Reggie Bush

34. WR Marques Colston

35. RB Edgerrin James

36. RB Justin Fargas

 

More question marks in this bunch, but you tell me who should be there if not these guys...

[swirvenirvin 25]

Gore?

 

With whom at QB S. Hill?

What does he have 2 100 yard games this year and vs the worst defenses in the league..

[Fumbleweed 426]

Gore?

 

With whom at QB S. Hill?

What does he have 2 100 yard games this year and vs the worst defenses in the league..

 

He is the #10 RB in scoring in most leagues in a forgettable season for the 49ers in terms of offense. When they have chosen to feed him the ball, he has produced. I'm still a believer in Gore.

[emartin 0]

Looks pretty good to me but I do have to disagree with Maroney that high. I think if Sammy Morris wouldnt have gotten hurt, Maroney's stats would have been even worse than they alreay are. Just my opinion though. Good list.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,592]

Michael Turner is a FA

 

Prediction, Hou-Top 10 Back

[ROCKET 0]

No way in hell is Portis a top 10 pick next year, how many people will take a shot on him that early? I applaud the guy for what he did this year but it was a pretty down year for rb's as a whole. I could see him dropping down to the late second or early third as I can't be the only guy out there who'd rate a guy with upside like Lynch or a stud wr like Edwards way ahead of him.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Looks pretty good to me but I do have to disagree with Maroney that high. I think if Sammy Morris wouldnt have gotten hurt, Maroney's stats would have been even worse than they alreay are. Just my opinion though. Good list.

 

New England's offense should be more balanced next year and Maroney could be the primary beneficiary. I think he will be undervalued in August....

[Fumbleweed 426]

No way in hell is Portis a top 10 pick next year, how many people will take a shot on him that early? I applaud the guy for what he did this year but it was a pretty down year for rb's as a whole. I could see him dropping down to the late second or early third as I can't be the only guy out there who'd rate a guy with upside like Lynch or a stud wr like Edwards way ahead of him.

 

When he's been healthy for a full season, he's always produced top ten numbers. The numbers don't lie. What reasoning do you have for de-valuing him?

[odogg 0]

Andre Johnson is the 2nd WR I'm taking off the board next season.....AJ if he stays Healthy will be fighting Randy for being the #1 WR

[Beggars 0]

Andre Johnson is the 2nd WR I'm taking off the board next season.....AJ if he stays Healthy will be fighting Randy for being the #1 WR

 

 

That is what stood out to me as well. He should be much higher, AJ was a clear 2nd in points per game in all of my leagues. I would put him up there with Owens and Wayne, with Schuab in his second year in the system I think AJ's value only goes up.

[devildog 0]

Can't see Fargas in the 1st three rounds. Take Gates over him any day of the week.

[cavern 70]

i would think michael turner and darren mcfadden would be gone by third round. although you didn't mention if rookies were eligible for your list especially rookies that have yet to declare

[nygiants 0]

In PPR leagues Randy Moss and TO will go higher...I can only see taking LT, Westbrook and Brady before them in PPR.

[stosher1 0]

That is what stood out to me as well. He should be much higher, AJ was a clear 2nd in points per game in all of my leagues. I would put him up there with Owens and Wayne, with Schuab in his second year in the system I think AJ's value only goes up.

 

Tier 1

RMoss

 

Tier 2

TO

AJohnson

 

Tier 3

Wayne

CJ

SSmith

Holt

Boldin

[surferskin 30]

No way in hell is Portis a top 10 pick next year, how many people will take a shot on him that early? I applaud the guy for what he did this year but it was a pretty down year for rb's as a whole. I could see him dropping down to the late second or early third as I can't be the only guy out there who'd rate a guy with upside like Lynch or a stud wr like Edwards way ahead of him.

what's up with all the irrational hate for portis? you've been wrong about him for about a year now, admitting it would be the first step.

 

 

btw, noway am i touching FWP in the first round.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Tier 1

RMoss

 

Tier 2

TO

AJohnson

 

Tier 3

Wayne

CJ

SSmith

Holt

Boldin

 

A couple of things:

 

1. Andre Johnson has missed significant time in the middle of the season due to injury two of the past three seasons. He is downgraded somewhat due to that.

 

2. Anquan Boldin is constantly being overvalued based on his potential. The bottom line on Boldin is that he hasn't finished in the top ten in receiving since his rookie year. Is he a very, very good NFL receiver? You bet. Is he a very, very good fantasy receiver? Less so.

 

3. I don't think Braylon Edwards can be left out of anyone's second or third tier....

[swirvenirvin 25]

Tier 1

RMoss

 

Tier 2

TO

AJohnson

 

Tier 3

Wayne

CJ

SSmith

Holt

Boldin

 

Greg Jennings and Colsten really belong in that teir 3 also.

 

Colsten started off bad really bad as his first 7 weeks were awful after that tho he was pretty damn good.

 

And Jennings even though he missed the first few was lights out the rest of the way

[shovelheadt 62]

Michael Turner is a FA

 

Prediction, Hou-Top 10 Back

 

What's to stop the Chargers from applying the transition tag to him?

[kutulu 1,551]

Thanks, now I have a headache trying to figure who will be my one keeper:

 

7. QB Tom Brady

8. RB Frank Gore

 

13. RB Willis McGahee

 

[shovelheadt 62]

New England's offense should be more balanced next year and Maroney could be the primary beneficiary. I think he will be undervalued in August....

 

Why would they? It's not as if they're having any issues on offense this year.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Why would they? It's not as if they're having any issues on offense this year.

 

The Patriots seem hell bent on making an impression this year...often passing in the fourth quarter up by 28 points or more.

 

The Spygate stuff will die down next year and I think they'll adopt less of a we will destroy the world attitude. Plus, teams will have the offseason to study that offense.

 

The Colts came back to being more balanced the year after Manning threw for 49 TDs. The Patriots most likely will, too. This year has become about more than just winning for the Pats.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Thanks, now I have a headache trying to figure who will be my one keeper:

 

7. QB Tom Brady

8. RB Frank Gore

 

13. RB Willis McGahee

 

 

I wouldn't keep McGahee out of those three. I think he'll be hitting a wall in the next 2-3 years.

[kutulu 1,551]

I wouldn't keep McGahee out of those three. I think he'll be hitting a wall in the next 2-3 years.

 

 

I know...I was just kidding and like to hear myself talk....I almost have to keep Brady in a 6 points for all TDs league.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I know...I was just kidding and like to hear myself talk....I almost have to keep Brady in a 6 points for all TDs league.

 

In a 6 points per TD league, I think you're absolutely correct.

[Belushi 9]

If we are assuming Ronnie Brown is back healthy, he has to be in the top 10. He was ahead of LT in allot of leagues before he got hurt. Some of that depends if Cameron is around, because he obviously knows how to build a good running game. But with Parcells running the show I'm sure they'll continue to focus on the running game.

 

I also think McGahee should be higher, given how well he produced with no QB. Granted they may still have no QB next year, but I think he's shown he's a top 10 back.

 

I'd have both ahead of Gore, Parker, LJ, and Portis.

 

Kudos for putting a list together this early!

[Fumbleweed 426]

If we are assuming Ronnie Brown is back healthy, he has to be in the top 10. He was ahead of LT in allot of leagues before he got hurt. Some of that depends if Cameron is around, because he obviously knows how to build a good running game. But with Parcells running the show I'm sure they'll continue to focus on the running game.

 

I also think McGahee should be higher, given how well he produced with no QB. Granted they may still have no QB next year, but I think he's shown he's a top 10 back.

 

I'd have both ahead of Gore, Parker, LJ, and Portis.

 

Kudos for putting a list together this early!

 

Yes...I think Brown will move up from here if he proves to be healthy and ready to roll next summer.

[dschddny 0]

Great list! Just off the top of my head, here are a few guys that I'd say would be worth some consideration in the first 3 rounds:

 

Harrison

Welker

Burress

Marshall

Carson Palmer

Gates

Winslow

Witten

Graham

[tenaciousb 0]

I see the fixation for Running Backs on this board has not subsided one bit !

[dschddny 0]

I see the fixation for Running Backs on this board has not subsided one bit !

 

I've never been a big proponent of using my first 2 or 3 picks on RB's, I generally prefer going RB with my #1 and then going WR with my 2 and 3, and loading up on my other RB's later on. That strategy worked very well for me this year, won my first Super Bowl despite drafting Alexander with my #1. I'll stick with it, this year reaffirmed the logic of it for me.

[aportanenko 0]

boy, I'm probably gonna get pummeled for this....but I got this hunch that All Day is gonna get the sophomore slump. Just a feeling. Maybe he's not durable. Maybe they stick with RBBC. I dunno...teams have to figure out by now that Tavaris isn't that great as a signal caller and Peterson's been shut down before. he's gonna be top ten, but not upper echelon. Now, where did I put my flak jacket?

[listen2me 23 1,545]

I like the try. Can't do much better this early.

 

 

My one beef is..

 

Ryan Grant has to be higher. If Favre doesn't come back I would put him there, but I see no reason for Favre not to return. Grant has been great and he will/should get most of the carries from start to finish.

 

I really see no reason he would be taken that low. I would say more like 1st/2nd round turn...so anywhere from 10-15. He should at the very least be above Ronnie, who will be coming off an ACL and on a terrible Miami team.

[kutulu 1,551]

I like the try. Can't do much better this early.

My one beef is..

 

Ryan Grant has to be higher. If Favre doesn't come back I would put him there, but I see no reason for Favre not to return. Grant has been great and he will/should get most of the carries from start to finish.

 

I really see no reason he would be taken that low. I would say more like 1st/2nd round turn...so anywhere from 10-15. He should at the very least be above Ronnie, who will be coming off an ACL and on a terrible Miami team.

 

 

Read an interesting stat today...the last seven games Grant has had at least one run of 20+ yards.

[aportanenko 0]

I see the fixation for Running Backs on this board has not subsided one bit !

 

this year only 20 rb's averaged around the coveted 10 point/game (standard scoring and sifting the injured backs) echelon. Last year 27 rbs did it. The year before 24 backs did it. In 2004 27 backs did it again. Good fantasy RB's are rarer now than ever before. I don't know if it's a trend just yet, what with RBBC or just a spike in RB injuries but I'm drafting RB/RB next year, let someone else draft Torry Holt, Steve Smith, and Marvin Harrison in the second round.

 

Now to be clear here, I'm not saying RBs are more dependable to draft, just that a good back is hard to find. WR's are a crap shoot too, but it's alot easier to fill a hole at WR than at RB at week 12 (or any week for that matter) When Edge decided to stay at that 7 pt a game average for 2 months, I was up a creek, plugging in that octogenarian every week. Had to, I wasn't in the cellar so my RB flavor of the week (if there were any that week) weren't choice cuts. When I finally got sick of Plax and his ######-stomach-pumping fiasco i fixed the WR leak that same day by picking up Anthony Gonzalez.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

What's to stop the Chargers from applying the transition tag to him?

 

He's an unrestricted FA. The only way they keep him is to resign him or franchise him and odds are long against those two options.

[Cara 0]

He's an unrestricted FA. The only way they keep him is to resign him or franchise him and odds are long against those two options.

 

 

Exactly. No way are they paying him the 8 million to back up LT for another year. Also, Wayne had to be in the tier two of WR's, NOT tier three. My lord, what else does this guy have to do? I would argue he's a tier one since Moss is unlikely to put up the same numbers again next season.

 

I am not convinced Marion Barber III can be a full-time back. He was injured frequently in college and has not been asked to carry a full load for 16 games yet. That will keep him out of the first two rounds for me, unless something significantly changes prior to next season.

I play in PPR leagues, so my rankings are a tad different, but overall, not a bad job. I'd seriously consider putting McFadden and Stewart in the third round, depending on who drafts them.

[shovelheadt 62]

He's an unrestricted FA. The only way they keep him is to resign him or franchise him and odds are long against those two options.

 

And I repeat.....

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transition_tag

[Gepetto 988]

Exactly. No way are they paying him the 8 million to back up LT for another year. Also, Wayne had to be in the tier two of WR's, NOT tier three. My lord, what else does this guy have to do? I would argue he's a tier one since Moss is unlikely to put up the same numbers again next season.

 

I am not convinced Marion Barber III can be a full-time back. He was injured frequently in college and has not been asked to carry a full load for 16 games yet. That will keep him out of the first two rounds for me, unless something significantly changes prior to next season.

I play in PPR leagues, so my rankings are a tad different, but overall, not a bad job. I'd seriously consider putting McFadden and Stewart in the third round, depending on who drafts them.

 

Who is this Stewart you speak of?

[FlaHawker 24]

boy, I'm probably gonna get pummeled for this....but I got this hunch that All Day is gonna get the sophomore slump. Just a feeling. Maybe he's not durable. Maybe they stick with RBBC. I dunno...teams have to figure out by now that Tavaris isn't that great as a signal caller and Peterson's been shut down before. he's gonna be top ten, but not upper echelon. Now, where did I put my flak jacket?

You raise legit concerns. Ronnie Brown and Caddy both had subpar sophmore seasons after promising rookie campaigns. I'm not comparing either of those two to Peterson, but if Chester is still in Minny next year and Tarvaris is still the QB, taking Peterson top five has its risks. I mean you still have to do it, but it certainly is not a risk free pick.

[De Novo 0]

Comments to the side.

I think your top 10 is right on.

 

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson

2. RB Steven Jackson

3. RB Brian Westbrook

4. RB Adrian Peterson

5. RB Joseph Addai

6. RB Marion Barber III

7. QB Tom Brady

8. RB Frank Gore

9. WR Randy Moss

10. RB Clinton Portis

11. RB Willie Parker (a little too high, I think he's losing a step and doesn't get GL carries; I'd put McGahee here instead).

12. RB Larry Johnson

13. RB Willis McGahee

14. WR Terrell Owens

15. RB Marshawn Lynch (I wouldn't draft him here; with that offense, his injury, and possible sophomore slump; unnecessary gamble)

16. WR Reggie Wayne (safe pick, but probably doesn't perform to #16 overall type production)

17. QB Peyton Manning

18. RB Jamal Lewis (This feels right given his age, but I'd probably take him before Marshawn Lynch)

19. WR Braylon Edwards (This is high risk/reward pick, with the possibility of a drop in QB production and Brady Quinn era?)

20. QB Tony Romo

21. WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (I'd take Housh over Braylon)

22. RB Ronnie Brown

23. RB Ryan Grant

24. WR Steve Smith (I would take Maroney, MJD, Jacobs over him)

25. WR Chad Johnson (I would take Maroney, MJD, Jacobs over him)

26. WR Larry Fitzgerald (I would take Maroney, MJD, Jacobs over him)

27. WR Torry Holt (when is his production going to drop and his knee flare up, I wouldn't take a gamble here)

28. RB Laurence Maroney (Part of me thinks this is too low and the other part thinks NE thinks he soft; if he plays well in playoffs I would take him at 22-24)

29. RB Brandon Jacobs (see above)

30. QB Drew Brees

31. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (move up)

32. WR Andre Johnson (why so low compared to other WRs above him? I'd move up.)

33. RB Reggie Bush

34. WR Marques Colston (why so low compared to other WRs above him? I'd move up, def above Bush.)

35. RB Edgerrin James (feels right, but I'd pass on him here)

36. RB Justin Fargas (no way do I gamble on him here)

 

I'd add Darren McFadden at 35, probably higher. Certainly higher than Bush. I might add Greg Jennings or Gates/Witten as well. I know I'd take him over James and Fargas and maybe Bush.

[FlaHawker 24]

The Patriots seem hell bent on making an impression this year...often passing in the fourth quarter up by 28 points or more.

 

The Spygate stuff will die down next year and I think they'll adopt less of a we will destroy the world attitude. Plus, teams will have the offseason to study that offense.

 

The Colts came back to being more balanced the year after Manning threw for 49 TDs. The Patriots most likely will, too. This year has become about more than just winning for the Pats.

I agree about the Pats coming back down to earth. Owners will chase Brady and the TDs he threw this year. I've had one guy in my league state that he is thinking of taking Brady top 5 next year. I hope he does.