Is Michael Turner too inconsistent?

[karmarooster 0]

I've been looking at Turner's numbers from last year and he's got a real case Jekyll and Hyde.

 

Jekyll:

in 8 games last year, he went over 100 yards. In these games, he average 148 yards/game. 1181 yards, 214 carries, 5.5 YPC. also scored 12 TDs. (Projected to a full season, that's 2200+ yards and 24 TDs haha pretty ridiculous)

 

Hyde:

in 8 games last year, he ran for less than 100 yards. in these games, he averaged 65 yards/game. 518 yards, 163 carries, 3.2 YPC... ouch. 5 TDs.

(projected to a full season, that's 1000 yards, 10 TDs)

 

So my question to you: is that too inconsistent from your RB1? Let's compare him to a guy like Steven Jackson. Sjax's biggest knock is that he misses 2-4 games per year due to injury. But you know that WHEN he plays, he's a lock top 5 Points Per Game running back. in contrast, last year turner had many games when he was healthy, and you obviously had to start him because he could go off for 200 yards and multiple TDs. But instead he runs for 60 yards on 25 carries, no TDs, and as always no receptions.

 

Here are some thoughts for next year:

-Everyone expects Matt Ryan to improve on an outstanding rookie season

-it's possible that Tony Gonzalez steals some of Turner's red zone TDs.

 

It's possible that Matt Ryan's improvement will benefit Turner's YPC, while decreasing his number of carries and TDs. so it's a mixed bag. With Turner facing few 8 men in the box, he might smooth out the hills and valleys in his stat curve. Please keep in mind: i'm not doubting his year end numbers. I'm projecting 350 carries, 4.5 YPC, 1575 yards, and 15 TDs. I'm talking about his consistency.

 

FYI, i have him ranked #4 on my board, after MJD, AP, and SJax (PPR). Primary reasons: consistency and ceiling. i don't see how he can improve on last year's numbers, but he should come close to repeating them.

 

let the debate and (Sjax bashing begin)....

[Riddlen 1]

you just described every RB season ever, excpet the truly special. Turner is a bona fide top 5 RB

[remote controller 143]

The team will take another step forward this year. Last year the games where he was non-existent were games they trailed in. When they took the lead early he bled them out. This is an offense on the rise and Gonzo will help move chains. My only concern with Turner is the near 400 carries he amassed. I see them working hard to lower the abuse on his body this year. I feel he can maintain top 10 status with them spreading it around more. All of this will aid consistency, but I don't think he is a top 4 pick. I like him at 10 thru 13, and that likely ain't happenning.

[LordOpie 0]

I've been looking at Turner's numbers from last year and he's got a real case Jekyll and Hyde.

 

Jekyll:

in 8 games last year, he went over 100 yards. In these games, he average 148 yards/game. 1181 yards, 214 carries, 5.5 YPC. also scored 12 TDs. (Projected to a full season, that's 2200+ yards and 24 TDs haha pretty ridiculous)

 

Hyde:

in 8 games last year, he ran for less than 100 yards. in these games, he averaged 65 yards/game. 518 yards, 163 carries, 3.2 YPC... ouch. 5 TDs.

(projected to a full season, that's 1000 yards, 10 TDs)

excellent post and thinking. When you break it down like that, you do make a compelling argument against Turner. However, looking at Turner by himself, you're saying that his floor is 1000/10 and to me, that's pretty darn good. I like to draft the first seven or so round guys with the highest floor, then draft guys with the highest ceiling.

 

So if Turner's floor is somewhere around 1000 yards, I'm comfortable taking him if he's the BPA at the spot I'm at. I say BPA cuz most of my leagues are PPR, so his value does drop some in those leagues.

 

In one league, AP finished 3rd and in other, he finished 8th in scoring. He's still a consensus 1st pick and I believe that's cuz people like his floor.

[gpann101 32]

Look at his numbers towards the end of the season.The O-line came together and will continue this year.

[JT 137]

you just described every RB season ever, excpet the truly special. Turner is a bona fide top 5 RB

 

Exactly. Unless you're talking about a truly dominant RB on an offensive juggernaut, virtually every RB is going to be impacted by standard factors like superior opponents, road games, minor injuries, etc. Maybe the last guy to transcend those factors for most of a season was LT in his best two seasons. Prior to that? Geez, Terrell Davis for two years maybe?

[jgcrawfish 232]

Look at his numbers towards the end of the season.The O-line came together and will continue this year.

 

bit of a misnomer...he's nearly gold on yardage at home, not so much on the road. but he's a TD machine. I expect him to get spelled with Norwood more this year so I think his carries ceiling is probably 330-350. I think the development of Ryan and the addition of Gonzales (who's a very underrated blocker) will also help his YPC. I expect similar #'s to last year.

[karmarooster 0]

you just described every RB season ever, excpet the truly special. Turner is a bona fide top 5 RB

 

i don't think so. i agree that all RBs have good games and bad games, but last year Turner was CRAZY. look at the stats... when he's good, he's more than twice as good as when he's bad. when he's bad, he less than half as good as when he's good. good luck figuring that out if you can't wrap you head around 148 vs. 65. he may be worth a top 5 pick, i'm not sure. i could see him dropping down to around 7 or 8 after the likes of Slaton, Dwill, Forte, and CJ4.24. do you have anything substantive to contribute?

 

The other thing about Turner is that when the Falcons are playing from behind, on the road, against a tough run defense, etc., he doesn't factor into the game plane except around the goal line because he isn't the 3rd down RB and doesn't get receptions or even screen passes AT ALL. he averaged less than 1 catch per game. this makes his good game/bad game disparity huge, compared to other RBs.

[karmarooster 0]

excellent post and thinking. When you break it down like that, you do make a compelling argument against Turner. However, looking at Turner by himself, you're saying that his floor is 1000/10 and to me, that's pretty darn good. I like to draft the first seven or so round guys with the highest floor, then draft guys with the highest ceiling.

 

So if Turner's floor is somewhere around 1000 yards, I'm comfortable taking him if he's the BPA at the spot I'm at. I say BPA cuz most of my leagues are PPR, so his value does drop some in those leagues.

 

In one league, AP finished 3rd and in other, he finished 8th in scoring. He's still a consensus 1st pick and I believe that's cuz people like his floor.

 

Yes his floor is excellent so he's gotta be top 10 even in PPR.

[karmarooster 0]

bit of a misnomer...he's nearly gold on yardage at home, not so much on the road. but he's a TD machine. I expect him to get spelled with Norwood more this year so I think his carries ceiling is probably 330-350. I think the development of Ryan and the addition of Gonzales (who's a very underrated blocker) will also help his YPC. I expect similar #'s to last year.

 

My projections are 350 carries, 4.5 YPC, 1575 yards plus another 70 yards on 10 receptions, 15 TDs. 265 points.

 

What are you expecting for YPC?

[kmbryant09 1]

I've been looking at Turner's numbers from last year and he's got a real case Jekyll and Hyde.

 

Jekyll:

in 8 games last year, he went over 100 yards. In these games, he average 148 yards/game. 1181 yards, 214 carries, 5.5 YPC. also scored 12 TDs. (Projected to a full season, that's 2200+ yards and 24 TDs haha pretty ridiculous)

 

Hyde:

in 8 games last year, he ran for less than 100 yards. in these games, he averaged 65 yards/game. 518 yards, 163 carries, 3.2 YPC... ouch. 5 TDs.

(projected to a full season, that's 1000 yards, 10 TDs)

 

So my question to you: is that too inconsistent from your RB1? Let's compare him to a guy like Steven Jackson. Sjax's biggest knock is that he misses 2-4 games per year due to injury. But you know that WHEN he plays, he's a lock top 5 Points Per Game running back. in contrast, last year turner had many games when he was healthy, and you obviously had to start him because he could go off for 200 yards and multiple TDs. But instead he runs for 60 yards on 25 carries, no TDs, and as always no receptions.

 

Here are some thoughts for next year:

-Everyone expects Matt Ryan to improve on an outstanding rookie season

-it's possible that Tony Gonzalez steals some of Turner's red zone TDs.

 

It's possible that Matt Ryan's improvement will benefit Turner's YPC, while decreasing his number of carries and TDs. so it's a mixed bag. With Turner facing few 8 men in the box, he might smooth out the hills and valleys in his stat curve. Please keep in mind: i'm not doubting his year end numbers. I'm projecting 350 carries, 4.5 YPC, 1575 yards, and 15 TDs. I'm talking about his consistency.

 

FYI, i have him ranked #4 on my board, after MJD, AP, and SJax (PPR). Primary reasons: consistency and ceiling. i don't see how he can improve on last year's numbers, but he should come close to repeating them.

 

let the debate and (Sjax bashing begin)....

 

You're gonna be hard-pressed to find a RB who had 100 yards every game. Bottom line is every player at every position is going to have off games. Sure 8 games is a lot, but that's the nature of the position, and I'll take a RB who's WORST 8 games put him on pace for 1,000 yards and 10 TDs.

 

Don't overthink it, barring injuries or an unforseen, dramatic change in ATL, Turner is worthy of a top5 pick.

[jerryskids 6,620]

I think the addition of Gonzo will help immensely. The Cards showed the formula to thwart their running attack in the playoffs; put 8 in the box and controlled blitz early and often. White didn't have time to get open, and Turner was met in the backfield. I think Gonzo helps not only with blocking but as a short safe target to keep defenses more honest.

[49ER MAN 0]

You're gonna be hard-pressed to find a RB who had 100 yards every game. Bottom line is every player at every position is going to have off games. Sure 8 games is a lot, but that's the nature of the position, and I'll take a RB who's WORST 8 games put him on pace for 1,000 yards and 10 TDs.

 

Don't overthink it, barring injuries or an unforseen, dramatic change in ATL, Turner is worthy of a top5 pick.

 

Turner should have another great year although I'm not sure if his numbers will be as good as 2008 in part because the schedule will be a lot tougher. I will project 1500 yards and 13 TD's.

[We Tigers 71]

He was inconsistent over the first few weeks of the season, but barely more inconsistent than Peterson. Turner had 4 weeks below 6 fantasy points, and the rest were solid to incredible. AD's "bad" weeks were still worth a little more in most cases (3 weeks at about 8, one clunker at 4), but there was not a ton of difference between the two otherwise.

 

I don't think Turner falls anywhere below 5, with Peterson and possibly MJD, Forte, and SJax above him. I could accept arguments for all those, but anyone else above Turner seems like a reach.

[enis_44 0]

I guess if you can list 3 Rb's that had NO off weeks, then I'll listen to the case that Turner isn't consistent enough.

[jgcrawfish 232]

My projections are 350 carries, 4.5 YPC, 1575 yards plus another 70 yards on 10 receptions, 15 TDs. 265 points.

 

What are you expecting for YPC?

 

damn, in looking it's really hard to say. hell, he averaged 4.5 a touch last year, so that's the 1575 right there. In thinking about it, I really don't anticipate him going much higher, and I'm pretty sure they're gonna limit him a bit this year. He's probably the freshest 6 year back you'll find, but 380+ carries still takes a toll. I actually like those figures...I think a duplication of last years average and TD's is completely feasible, with a slight drop off in carries/touches.

[shutdown 40]

The team will take another step forward this year. Last year the games where he was non-existent were games they trailed in. When they took the lead early he bled them out. This is an offense on the rise and Gonzo will help move chains. My only concern with Turner is the near 400 carries he amassed. I see them working hard to lower the abuse on his body this year. I feel he can maintain top 10 status with them spreading it around more. All of this will aid consistency, but I don't think he is a top 4 pick. I like him at 10 thru 13, and that likely ain't happenning.

 

 

Bingo - if you look on this site there are several excellent article on the impact of carries the prior season on an RB and also on the fact that over 50% of the top 10 RB's will turn over this year. Turner is one of my picks to depart from the top 10.

 

Even if you think he stays in the top 10, you have to assume a decline in his numbers this season based on last season's workload.

[Sgt_Russia 0]

Bingo - if you look on this site there are several excellent article on the impact of carries the prior season on an RB and also on the fact that over 50% of the top 10 RB's will turn over this year. Turner is one of my picks to depart from the top 10.

 

Even if you think he stays in the top 10, you have to assume a decline in his numbers this season based on last season's workload.

 

 

That 370+ touches threshold is alarming. I'd stay away for that fact only.

 

As far as his consistency, looking at Turner compared to Jackson and Peterson ( since they were already mentioned in this thread for one, and because I tend to view Jackson as more consistent-- when he plays-- and Peterson as less consistent)...

 

Non PPR standard scoring, pct of weeks scoring 10+ : (change the scoring to PPR and Jackson's lead widens)

 

Jackson 06-08 33/40 82.5%

Peterson 07-08 21/29 72.4%

Turner 08 12/16 75%

 

Am I saying draft Jackson over Peterson or Turner? No. Is he more consistent? I would argue that he is...

[enis_44 0]

That 370+ touches threshold is alarming. I'd stay away for that fact only.

 

As far as his consistency, looking at Turner compared to Jackson and Peterson ( since they were already mentioned in this thread for one, and because I tend to view Jackson as more consistent-- when he plays-- and Peterson as less consistent)...

 

Non PPR standard scoring, pct of weeks scoring 10+ : (change the scoring to PPR and Jackson's lead widens)

 

Jackson 06-08 33/40 82.5%

Peterson 07-08 21/29 72.4%

Turner 08 12/16 75%

 

Am I saying draft Jackson over Peterson or Turner? No. Is he more consistent? I would argue that he is...

Did you factor in all the weeks Jackson doesn't play at all and puts up a huge ZERO for his owners?

[worm 36]

My only concern with Turner is the near 400 carries he amassed.

That 370+ touches threshold is alarming. I'd stay away for that fact only.

It is a concern, but what swings the argument the other way for me is that it was his first full season as a starter. He only had 239 total touches in the 4 years previous, so there was little wear & tear. I doubt he'll get as many touches this year, but I think he'll be just as effective with what he does get.

 

The inconsistency argument is a good one. I had him on one of my teams and ended up benching him against good defenses. The definition of a "stud" running back is that you play him no matter what, so doesn't that mean Turner isn't one? However, the only other weapon Atlanta had was Roddy White, so the addition of Gonzo should help him out. He's still a top 5 pick in my mind.

[WhiteWonder 2,688]

First let me say that I am sort of avoiding Turner in my PPR leagues based on where he will be drafted and because I would rather have an MJD or Forte early or trade back and take an LT etc....

 

But I am curious as to wether or not you feel the same way about Adrian Peterson?

 

Peterson had 6 games where he averaged 71 yards rushing and from a fantasy standpoint had just as many sub 15 point games as Turner did. (both had 7). While turners bad rushing games average out to a lesser YPG, he was still finding paydirt. Peterson wasn't always.

 

So i guess what Im saying is if we don't consider Turner a stud because he has many games where he might be better off on your bench, isn't the same true for ADP? Yet how many people would even ask this about Peterson?

[Melissa Stark 1]

I going to lean, top 5.

 

I believe teams tried to stack against their run game and Ryan came thru.

Once teams saw Ryan was capable, it created more room for Turner,it seemed to be hit or miss on game planning against them.

It appeared teams still tried to stop Turner and bet against Ryan getting the job done.

The addition of Gonzo helps even more..IMO.

[remote controller 143]

It is a concern, but what swings the argument the other way for me is that it was his first full season as a starter. He only had 239 total touches in the 4 years previous, so there was little wear & tear. I doubt he'll get as many touches this year, but I think he'll be just as effective with what he does get.

 

The inconsistency argument is a good one. I had him on one of my teams and ended up benching him against good defenses. The definition of a "stud" running back is that you play him no matter what, so doesn't that mean Turner isn't one? However, the only other weapon Atlanta had was Roddy White, so the addition of Gonzo should help him out. He's still a top 5 pick in my mind.

You quoted me, and disagreed with it, then agreed with the overall premise of my post. He will carfry less and be more consistent, though I did say top 8, not top 4.

[LordOpie 0]

First let me say that I am sort of avoiding Turner in my PPR leagues based on where he will be drafted and because I would rather have an MJD or Forte early or trade back and take an LT etc....

 

But I am curious as to wether or not you feel the same way about Adrian Peterson?

 

Peterson had 6 games where he averaged 71 yards rushing and from a fantasy standpoint had just as many sub 15 point games as Turner did. (both had 7). While turners bad rushing games average out to a lesser YPG, he was still finding paydirt. Peterson wasn't always.

 

So i guess what Im saying is if we don't consider Turner a stud because he has many games where he might be better off on your bench, isn't the same true for ADP? Yet how many people would even ask this about Peterson?

It's probably cuz ADP's proven floor is much higher than Turner's floor.

 

Some of us prefer the safest choices in the early rounds.

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

Did you factor in all the weeks Jackson doesn't play at all and puts up a huge ZERO for his owners?

 

At least you know not to start Steven Jackson those weeks, with Turner you are never sure. Advantage Sjax.

[the_risen_demon 0]

Is Turner too inconsistent? For this to be true, he'd have to be at least as inconsistent as his peers, the others one might consider around the same draft position. Let's look at a few of them to see how they stack up.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew

 

Best 8 games: 111.75 total ypg, 14 total TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1788 yards, 28 TD's

 

Worst 8 games: 61.875 total ypg, 2 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 990 yards, 4 TD's

 

Matt Forte

 

Best 8 games: 120.625 total ypg, 10 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1930 yards, 20 TD's

 

Worst 8 games: 93.75 total ypg, 2 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1500 yards, 4 TD's

 

I considered doing one for Stephen Jackson also, but since he did not play a full 16-game season like the other three, I opted to leave him out so that our data samples were more similar. It's worth noting how consistent Forte's yardage numbers are. I think there is likely something to the idea that a "feature back" like Forte or Turner is going to be more consistent in yardage than a "committee back" like Jones-Drew or Chris Johnson. Of course, without Fred Taylor, even if this is true one should expect Jones-Drew's yardage to be more consistent in 2009. Since Turner did was a feature back and did not display the consistent yardage that Forte did, perhaps there is something to the idea that Turner lacks consistency. We'd need to look a little deeper at the consistency of feature backs vs. committee backs, but the idea passes the smell test. That said, points is points, and the six points a team gets for a touchdown will help you win a week just as much as the six point from sixty total yards, so I don't think it benefits us to seperate yardage from touchdown production. When we boil down the numbers into fantasy points, we get:

 

Michael Turner

 

Best 8 games: 26.8 ppg

Worst 8 games: 9.1 ppg

 

Maurice Jones-Drew

 

Best 8 games: 21.7 ppg

Worst 8 games: 7.7 ppg

 

Matt Forte

 

Best 8 games: 19.6 ppg

Worst 8 games: 10.9 ppg

 

So, is Turner more inconsistent than his peers? Maybe a bit, but if so it seems only because his ceiling for any given game is higher, not because his floor is much lower, if we use the 2008 numbers as our guide (and the OP indicates that we are). And that's a good problem to have.

[VaTerp 0]

Is Turner too inconsistent? For this to be true, he'd have to be at least as inconsistent as his peers, the others one might consider around the same draft position. Let's look at a few of them to see how they stack up.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew

 

Best 8 games: 111.75 total ypg, 14 total TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1788 yards, 28 TD's

 

Worst 8 games: 61.875 total ypg, 2 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 990 yards, 4 TD's

 

Matt Forte

 

Best 8 games: 120.625 total ypg, 10 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1930 yards, 20 TD's

 

Worst 8 games: 93.75 total ypg, 2 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1500 yards, 4 TD's

 

I considered doing one for Stephen Jackson also, but since he did not play a full 16-game season like the other three, I opted to leave him out so that our data samples were more similar. It's worth noting how consistent Forte's yardage numbers are. I think there is likely something to the idea that a "feature back" like Forte or Turner is going to be more consistent in yardage than a "committee back" like Jones-Drew or Chris Johnson. Of course, without Fred Taylor, even if this is true one should expect Jones-Drew's yardage to be more consistent in 2009. Since Turner did was a feature back and did not display the consistent yardage that Forte did, perhaps there is something to the idea that Turner lacks consistency. We'd need to look a little deeper at the consistency of feature backs vs. committee backs, but the idea passes the smell test. That said, points is points, and the six points a team gets for a touchdown will help you win a week just as much as the six point from sixty total yards, so I don't think it benefits us to seperate yardage from touchdown production. When we boil down the numbers into fantasy points, we get:

 

Michael Turner

 

Best 8 games: 26.8 ppg

Worst 8 games: 9.1 ppg

 

Maurice Jones-Drew

 

Best 8 games: 21.7 ppg

Worst 8 games: 7.7 ppg

 

Matt Forte

 

Best 8 games: 19.6 ppg

Worst 8 games: 10.9 ppg

 

So, is Turner more inconsistent than his peers? Maybe a bit, but if so it seems only because his ceiling for any given game is higher, not because his floor is much lower, if we use the 2008 numbers as our guide (and the OP indicates that we are). And that's a good problem to have.

 

Excellent analysis. When I saw this thread my initial reaction was that I didnt think Turner was really that much more inconsistent than the other top RBs. I was too lazy to break down the stats at the moment but Im glad you did.

 

My biggest concern about Turner is his lack of involvement in the passing game. But my main league awards .25 per rush attempt so a lot of the value he loses in PPR is gained back there. In regular PPR leagues you do have to drop him a little but he's still a stud.

 

Im not as concerned about the high carries from last year. I understand those who are but I look at his lack of prior mileage, the way he's built, and the way he runs and I just dont think it will be a factor for him like it has been for others who have hit the high carries threshold. Of course he could get hurt but so can any RB in the NFL.

 

There are some things to think about when you look at Turner. But I can say the same thing without any hesitation about every top RB this year. And his inconsistency is not something that I think is a factor b/c of the analysis above. The op makes a good point about his lack of passing game stats making it hard for him to rack up points when he's shut down but IMO this is off set by his TD potential.

 

I have Turner #3 on my board and depending on league scoring and personal preference he's worth a pick anywhere in the draft.

[karmarooster 0]

Is Turner too inconsistent? For this to be true, he'd have to be at least as inconsistent as his peers, the others one might consider around the same draft position. Let's look at a few of them to see how they stack up.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew

 

Best 8 games: 111.75 total ypg, 14 total TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1788 yards, 28 TD's

 

Worst 8 games: 61.875 total ypg, 2 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 990 yards, 4 TD's

 

Matt Forte

 

Best 8 games: 120.625 total ypg, 10 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1930 yards, 20 TD's

 

Worst 8 games: 93.75 total ypg, 2 TD's

Projected over a 16-game season: 1500 yards, 4 TD's

 

I considered doing one for Stephen Jackson also, but since he did not play a full 16-game season like the other three, I opted to leave him out so that our data samples were more similar. It's worth noting how consistent Forte's yardage numbers are. I think there is likely something to the idea that a "feature back" like Forte or Turner is going to be more consistent in yardage than a "committee back" like Jones-Drew or Chris Johnson. Of course, without Fred Taylor, even if this is true one should expect Jones-Drew's yardage to be more consistent in 2009. Since Turner did was a feature back and did not display the consistent yardage that Forte did, perhaps there is something to the idea that Turner lacks consistency. We'd need to look a little deeper at the consistency of feature backs vs. committee backs, but the idea passes the smell test. That said, points is points, and the six points a team gets for a touchdown will help you win a week just as much as the six point from sixty total yards, so I don't think it benefits us to seperate yardage from touchdown production. When we boil down the numbers into fantasy points, we get:

 

Michael Turner

 

Best 8 games: 26.8 ppg

Worst 8 games: 9.1 ppg

 

Maurice Jones-Drew

 

Best 8 games: 21.7 ppg

Worst 8 games: 7.7 ppg

 

Matt Forte

 

Best 8 games: 19.6 ppg

Worst 8 games: 10.9 ppg

 

So, is Turner more inconsistent than his peers? Maybe a bit, but if so it seems only because his ceiling for any given game is higher, not because his floor is much lower, if we use the 2008 numbers as our guide (and the OP indicates that we are). And that's a good problem to have.

 

 

 

thanks for some solid follow up analysis. I am curious tho, these numbers are for non-PPR, right? Here's the conclusion I can draw from your analysis...

 

Not only is Turner not as valuable in PPR scoring (which I already knew), but he's even more inconsistent.

 

sure he's a TD and yardage machine in his good games, but in his bad games he doesn't get anything: yardage, TDs, or reception points or yardage. you do HAVE to bench him against good defenses on the road, unless you can live wih 60 yards rushing, no TDs, and no receptions. on the other hand, Matt Forte is pretty much a lock for 15+ points even in his bad games, because he adds 4-5 receptions to his 10.9 points. same goes for the likes of Sjax, and possibly slaton and Chris Johnson.

 

Anyone remember the crank score ratings? Turner's score won't be good if/when they publish that this year.

 

For these reasons, along with the 370+ carries, and Ryan+Gonzo, i have pushed him even further down my list of first round RBs:

Group 1: MJD, AP, Sjax

Group 2: Forte, LT, Slaton, CJ4.24, Gore, Portis

Group 3: Turner, DWill

 

One thing that i'll take a look at later: compare RBs on this list PPG of best 8 games vs. worst 8 games.

[karmarooster 0]

At least you know not to start Steven Jackson those weeks, with Turner you are never sure. Advantage Sjax.

 

exactly. Turner is more comparable to someone like Addai... you know he'll start the game, but you don't know if he'll put up numbers - in Addai's case it's because he takes himself out of the game frequently because of minor injury.

[the_risen_demon 0]

thanks for some solid follow up analysis. I am curious tho, these numbers are for non-PPR, right? Here's the conclusion I can draw from your analysis...

 

Not only is Turner not as valuable in PPR scoring (which I already knew), but he's even more inconsistent.

 

sure he's a TD and yardage machine in his good games, but in his bad games he doesn't get anything: yardage, TDs, or reception points or yardage. you do HAVE to bench him against good defenses on the road, unless you can live wih 60 yards rushing, no TDs, and no receptions. on the other hand, Matt Forte is pretty much a lock for 15+ points even in his bad games, because he adds 4-5 receptions to his 10.9 points. same goes for the likes of Sjax, and possibly slaton and Chris Johnson.

 

Anyone remember the crank score ratings? Turner's score won't be good if/when they publish that this year.

 

For these reasons, along with the 370+ carries, and Ryan+Gonzo, i have pushed him even further down my list of first round RBs:

Group 1: MJD, AP, Sjax

Group 2: Forte, LT, Slaton, CJ4.24, Gore, Portis

Group 3: Turner, DWill

 

One thing that i'll take a look at later: compare RBs on this list PPG of best 8 games vs. worst 8 games.

 

Yes, the analysis I did was for non-PPR leagues, and I did not deduct point for fumbles. The addition of either might changes the results somewhat. Certainly in PPR leagues, Turner's ADP will be a bit lower, and justifiably so. However, to the original question of whether Turner is more or less inconsistent than his peers, I think we need to also consider whether consistency is a vice or a virtue.

 

Much of it depends on your league's payouts. I play in a league that distributes half of it's entrance fees in the form of weekly prizes, with the other half coming at the end of the year. In such a format, the "boom-or-bust" players may actually provide an advantage over the consistent players. If two players are going to end the year with identical numbers, but one is going to do so evenly over the course of all 16 games and the other is going to have some huge games and some duds, I'd rather have the latter. He's the one who is going to help me put up the really high scores needed to win the occasional week. Because an owner in this payout format can recoup his entrance fee just by winning three weeks of the year, the boom-or-bust guy's potential more than compensates for whatever liability he poses in making it to the playoffs.

 

Regardless of that though, let's say that we have two players. Their stats look like this:

 

Player A

Best 8 games: 25 ppg

Worst 8 games: 10 ppg

 

Player B

Best 8 games: 18 ppg

Worst 8 games: 10 ppg

 

Is player B more consistent? Sure. Is that worth anything? Not at all. The additional upside of player A is a free roll -- it cost you nothing. You may find that when you look at PPR statistics for these running backs, Turner actually appears more consistent (compared to his peers) than in my analysis. He pretty much never catches passes, and you can't get much more consistent than never. Does this make him more valuable in this format? Certainly not. Whatever additional scoring the other backs do because of their pass catching is a bonus, regardless of how inconsistent it is.

[dksmith17380 0]

Don't forget to look at the schdules.

2009 is way way harder. 2008 got the benefit of playing DET, KC in their first 3 games. Also played poor run defenses in OAK, GB, NO twice, DEN and STL. In 2009 they get NO twice and BUF and that is for the large part the only weak run defenses as of now. Also have to play PHIL, NE away, NYG Away, DAL away. Take a look at Turners numbers beside the weak run defenses he played compared to the strong run defenses. Against good rush defense he has about 50-60 yards no TDs. The couple of exceptions were CAR and TB which were late in the season when both teams had two of the worst defenses in the league. I still say Turner is a top 10 back, but I would not say top 3.

 

2008 Atlanta Falcons Schedule

Week 1 - Sun, Sep 7 Detroit - W (34-21) 220RY 2TDs

Week 2 - Sun, Sep 14 at Tampa Bay - L (9-24) 42 RY

Week 3 - Sun, Sep 21 Kansas City - W (38-14) 104 3TDs

Week 4 - Sun, Sep 28 at Carolina - L (9-24) 52RY

Week 5 - Sun, Oct 5 at Green Bay - W (27-24) 121RY 1TD

Week 6 - Sun, Oct 12 Chicago - W (22-20) 54RY

Week 7 - Bye

Week 8 - Sun, Oct 26 at Philadelphia - L (14-27) 58RY

Week 9 - Sun, Nov 2 at Oakland - W (24-0) 139RY

Week 10 - Sun, Nov 9 New Orleans - W (34-20) 96RY 1 TD

Week 11 - Sun, Nov 16 Denver - L (20-24) 81RY 2TDs

Week 12 - Sun, Nov 23 Carolina - W (45-28) 117RY 4TDS

Week 13 - Sun, Nov 30 at San Diego - W (22-16) 120RY

Week 14 - Sun, Dec 7 at New Orleans - L (25-29) 61RY 1TD

Week 15 - Sun, Dec 14 Tampa Bay - W (13-10 OT) 152RY 1TD

Week 16 - Sun, Dec 21 at Minnesota - W (24-17) 70RY 1TD

Week 17 - Sun, Dec 28 St Louis - W (31-27) 208RY 1 TD

 

2009

1 - Sun, Sep 13 - Miami 1:00 PM

2 - Sun, Sep 20 - Carolina 1:00 PM

3 - Sun, Sep 27 - at New England 1:00 PM

4 - BYE

5 - Sun, Oct 11 - at San Francisco 4:05 PM

6 - Sun, Oct 18 - Chicago 8:20 PM

7 - Sun, Oct 25 - at Dallas 4:15 PM

8 - Mon, Nov 2 - at New Orleans 8:30 PM

9 - Sun, Nov 8 - Washington 1:00 PM

10 - Sun, Nov 15 - at Carolina 1:00 PM

11 - Sun, Nov 22 - at NY Giants 1:00 PM

12 - Sun, Nov 29 - Tampa Bay 1:00 PM

13 - Sun, Dec 6 - Philadelphia 1:00 PM

14 - Sun, Dec 13 - New Orleans 1:00 PM

15 - Sun, Dec 20 - at NY Jets 1:00 PM

16 - Sun, Dec 27 - Buffalo 1:00 PM

17 - Sun, Jan 3 - at Tampa Bay 1:00 PM

[Jonftball 0]

I agree whole-heartedly with looking at the schedule. One mistake nearly everyone makes is looking only at last season's performance when projecting for the next year, but when you have a player who's schedule is getting much more difficult, like Turner and D. Williams, this can be a huge mistake.

 

Also, one thing no one has touched on is the workload Turner received last season. He had 396 touches, and I am sure most of you are familiar with prior performances of players coming off a season touching the ball at or around 400 times. It is definitely not pretty.

 

When you factor in the tougher schedule, the wear his body took, and the fact that the team is likely to throw more with the addition of Gonzo and the further development of Ryan, I think you definitely have to bump Turner out of the top 5. I would personally probably not draft him anywhere in the first round, but I can understand others who love his upside. Just keep in mind that that upside was a product of factors that are not going to be there again this season.

[greggorymac 0]

I agree whole-heartedly with looking at the schedule. One mistake nearly everyone makes is looking only at last season's performance when projecting for the next year, but when you have a player who's schedule is getting much more difficult, like Turner and D. Williams, this can be a huge mistake.

 

Also, one thing no one has touched on is the workload Turner received last season. He had 396 touches, and I am sure most of you are familiar with prior performances of players coming off a season touching the ball at or around 400 times. It is definitely not pretty.

 

When you factor in the tougher schedule, the wear his body took, and the fact that the team is likely to throw more with the addition of Gonzo and the further development of Ryan, I think you definitely have to bump Turner out of the top 5. I would personally probably not draft him anywhere in the first round, but I can understand others who love his upside. Just keep in mind that that upside was a product of factors that are not going to be there again this season.

 

So by that rationale you are going to be avoiding ADP (404 touches in 2008) as well? I don't understand why a lot of the posters here have it out for this guy? If we are talking PPR it's a different issue, but non-ppr this guy is money. It's almost like some of the posters here are trying to convince themselves (using one argument to prove their point against Turner, but ignoring the same argument for other players).

 

Argument 1: The high workload argument (negative for both Turner and ADP)

 

Argument 2: The he only plays good against week defenses argument (negative for both Turner and MJD)

 

Argument 3: The he's only done it one season argument (negative for both Turner, DWil and Forte)

 

Argument 4: The consistency argument (what does it matter if Turner is less consistent if both his low 8 game avg and high 8 game averages are above most of his peers)

 

If you guys don't like him, fine. But at least stay consistent with the points you are arguing.

[dksmith17380 0]

So by that rationale you are going to be avoiding ADP (404 touches in 2008) as well? I don't understand why a lot of the posters here have it out for this guy? If we are talking PPR it's a different issue, but non-ppr this guy is money. It's almost like some of the posters here are trying to convince themselves (using one argument to prove their point against Turner, but ignoring the same argument for other players).

 

Argument 1: The high workload argument (negative for both Turner and ADP)

 

Argument 2: The he only plays good against week defenses argument (negative for both Turner and MJD)

Argument 3: The he's only done it one season argument (negative for both Turner, DWil and Forte)

 

Argument 4: The consistency argument (what does it matter if Turner is less consistent if both his low 8 game avg and high 8 game averages are above most of his peers)

 

If you guys don't like him, fine. But at least stay consistent with the points you are arguing.

 

Exactly- he only plays good against weak defenses and so does the rest of NFL except for a few rare exceptions. Fantasy football is all about matchups. MJD and S Jax have much easier schedules. Forte's is easier also.

 

Thanks for being consistent and agreeing with the argument.

[greggorymac 0]

Exactly- he only plays good against weak defenses and so does the rest of NFL except for a few rare exceptions. Fantasy football is all about matchups. MJD and S Jax have much easier schedules. Forte's is easier also.

 

Thanks for being consistent and agreeing with the argument.

 

That's the one I'm struggling with... the 2009 schedule. I really don't like that Turner plays the NFC East for their out of conference games. I know its dicey to assume next season's SOS based upon last season performances, but right now the 2009 SOS is the one reason that I have MJD ranked higher than Turner at 1.02 non-ppr.

[dksmith17380 0]

Lets not forget ATL also plays the much improved AFC East. NYJ adds Ryan and Bart Scott. BUF was secretly pretty good on defense last year and drafted Maybin. MI gets back Taylor and was much improved also.

 

And the weakest link in the NFC East Washington just added Haynesworth. It could mean trouble for all Falcons this year.

[Jonftball 0]

To answer your question greggorymac:

 

Yes, I will be cautious with ADP as well, though I do not think he has as many total knocks on him as Turner. You have to be very careful when choosing the player to build your team around. I say draft for the lowest downside in the beginning rounds, then for the highest upside late.

 

I also think you missed the point I made by accusing me of finding an excuse to not like Turner. My whole point was that Turner presents me many different factors to doubt him on. I only specifically pointed out the workload because I had not seen anyone else mention it. Like I said though, I am just as concerned about his schedule and the offense changing as well.

 

Also, to say MJD only does well against bad teams is unfair. Last season that was the case, but only because the Jags o-line was ridiculously banged up. In past years, MJD was remarkably consistent scoring wise, and that was in a timeshare. With a beefed up o-line and the whole load, he will be money in the bank when healthy.

[DankNuggs 305]

It's probably cuz ADP's proven floor is much higher than Turner's floor.

 

Some of us prefer the safest choices in the early rounds.

I think you DRASTICALLY misconstrue the notion of a 'Floor' and past statistical production... most the big names change on a yearly basis... Forte? MJD? people saying LT/Westy are done....etc...

 

true valuation just isn't that simple...

[Melissa Stark 1]

greggorymac

If you guys don't like him, fine. But at least stay consistent with the points you are arguing.

 

Good point, but I think this thread is worthy of the multiple view points of the positive and negatives for Turner, and comparisons

to other Rb peers with him.

 

I'm still inclined to believe he is on the upside and worthy of a top 5 pick, maybe top 3.

Can anyone really predict the exact outcome? If they can, they're worth millions.

 

I like Turner's risk vs. outcome for FF drafting, along with ADP vs other top canidates like Westy.

I'm anxious to see were Westy goes in drafts this season with his age and injury issues.

[gpann101 32]

Was Turner over valued last year?....no. This is a new year!Is Turner a stud?...yes. Will he repeat?...good chance. Can he break an arm and miss the whole season? yeah,probably(unless keeper or dynasty leagues) FF is a gamble period. He could or could not do depends every year in Fantasy Land. I remember many were down on Turner last year. He is good and thats the bottom line. Draft with confidence.