Look-Alike Players: Pierre Thomas vs. Knowshon Moreno

[Fumbleweed 547]

It's time for another summer of Look-Alike Player threads...if you're new to the Board, every few days during the summer, I will try to post a thread that lists two players who are very close in value in redraft situations. Simply vote for the player you feel should be drafted first and then add comments about your selection if you would like.

 

This is non-PPR for Look-Alike matchups that involve RBs, WRs, or TEs. Just standard point for every 10 yards and 6 for TDs.

 

Our initial Look-Alike player matchup of the summer is: Pierre Thomas vs. Knowshon Moreno

 

Thanks for your participation!!

[Jeff Garcia 8]

Actually while most of the time I can't tell "them" apart, I think in this situation, they don't look at all alike.

 

 

Knowshon

 

Pierre

[Dan 66]

I'm a sucker for young, explosive talent. And the fact that there isn't much else around him makes me want Knowshon more . . . significantly.

[WhiteWonder 2,738]

i think you go Knowshon simply because McDaniels drafted him and will give him his touches. But I think PT is the better player.

[FlaHawker 24]

i think you go Knowshon simply because McDaniels drafted him and will give him his touches. But I think PT is the better player.

If I am drafting and those two are my choices in the third round, both have 3rd round ADPs, I take Knowshon all the way, based primarily on the point you make about touches. Over the final 8 weeks last year Knowshon had 150 touches (RU ATT and REC) to PTs 90. That is significant. However, one could argue that PT did more with his touches, but give me the guy who is definitely getting the touches.

[Phurfur 70]

I like PT as things stand today. He is a better RB right now on the #1 offense in the NFL. I expect him is have better stats than last year.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

With Bell gone and assuming nobody else steps up to resume Bell's role I'd definitely go with Pierre. Very talented back in a better offense. He's in for a great year (a year he should have had in 09).

 

I like Moreno too, just not quite as much. There could be some serious ramifications for Denver's offense after losing their top playmaker.

 

Great topic!

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Actually while most of the time I can't tell "them" apart, I think in this situation, they don't look at all alike.

 

 

Knowshon

 

Pierre

 

WTF?!?! Is that skank showing off her snatch piercing?

 

God I miss college (the little bit I attended)

[remote controller 143]

Give me Pierre. Many more points scored as a team, and CBuck was the better back last year in Denver. I realize this is Moreno's gig, I just feel CBuck we'll steal plenty again this year. Alot of pride in that old vet!

[Dan 66]

Give me Pierre. Many more points scored as a team, and CBuck was the better back last year in Denver. I realize this is Moreno's gig, I just feel CBuck we'll steal plenty again this year. Alot of pride in that old vet!

 

I hear you, but pride doesn't guarantee touches . . . especially when there are so many mouths and hands to feed. The Saints' offense is amazing, but the ball goes everywhere. Who's losing the touches to make that jump happen?

 

I have much easier time thinking that McDaniels is going to groom his young stud to be actually that, so that he can take the job that he's supposed to have, than Pierre someone clinching a starting role worth significant fantasy value, when the only central character on that side of the ball is clearly Drew Brees.

[kmbryant09 1]

I'm not very high on either player - but you've got to like Pierre's upside over Moreno's.

 

Stats don't always tell the whole story, but something jumps out to me about the Denver backfield:

-Moreno: 3.8 ypc on 240 carries.

-Buckhalter: 5.4 ypc on 120 carries.

 

Again - I know some of that reflects the situation, or a long run late in a blow-out for Buckhalter...But the 1.6 ypc difference is STAGGERING. The Broncos have a great OLine (although some SERIOUS injury concerns heading into this season), yet Moreno was given every chance to succeed, and couldn't even post a 4.0 ypc mark.

 

As for the eye test, I'm not going to say Buckhalter was the better back, but Moreno looked like nothing special. A solid RB, who doesn't do anything exceptional, but doesn't have many weaknesses.

 

As for Thomas - if he's given 250 touches, he will be a top12 RB this year. Most RB's with 250 touches in that offense would be, so I'm not trying to hype him up to be a special talent. But he's tough, quick, good hands, and has a great all-around game that fits perfectly in the Saints offense.

 

If everything else is about equal, then the Saints offense >>>>> Broncos offense is the deciding factor for me.

[surferskin 30]

I'm not very high on either player - but you've got to like Pierre's upside over Moreno's.

 

Stats don't always tell the whole story, but something jumps out to me about the Denver backfield:

-Moreno: 3.8 ypc on 240 carries.

-Buckhalter: 5.4 ypc on 120 carries.

 

Again - I know some of that reflects the situation, or a long run late in a blow-out for Buckhalter...But the 1.6 ypc difference is STAGGERING. The Broncos have a great OLine (although some SERIOUS injury concerns heading into this season), yet Moreno was given every chance to succeed, and couldn't even post a 4.0 ypc mark.

 

As for the eye test, I'm not going to say Buckhalter was the better back, but Moreno looked like nothing special. A solid RB, who doesn't do anything exceptional, but doesn't have many weaknesses.

 

As for Thomas - if he's given 250 touches, he will be a top12 RB this year. Most RB's with 250 touches in that offense would be, so I'm not trying to hype him up to be a special talent. But he's tough, quick, good hands, and has a great all-around game that fits perfectly in the Saints offense.

 

If everything else is about equal, then the Saints offense >>>>> Broncos offense is the deciding factor for me.

Acreed about Moreno. Dood is made of weak and suck.

[Phurfur 70]

I hear you, but pride doesn't guarantee touches . . . especially when there are so many mouths and hands to feed. The Saints' offense is amazing, but the ball goes everywhere. Who's losing the touches to make that jump happen?

I have much easier time thinking that McDaniels is going to groom his young stud to be actually that, so that he can take the job that he's supposed to have, than Pierre someone clinching a starting role worth significant fantasy value, when the only central character on that side of the ball is clearly Drew Brees.

 

 

Mike Bell had over 150 rushing attempts last year. Right now PT is the man.

[WhiteWonder 2,738]

Thomas is more talented imo and he shed Mike Bell so a majority of those extra carries should go to him but does Lynell Hamilton scare anyone else? That said, there are so many weapons in New Orleans, they are a passing team, and PT is in a contract dispute.

 

Moreno needs to play better than he did last year but I have every reason to believe he will be the man this year and carry the ball 270+ times. The Broncos lost their best receiving threat as well so I wouldnt be shocked to see them run more in 2010.

 

Looks to me like PT is the higher risk, higher reward guy while Moreno is the safer play.

[Fumbleweed 547]

Looks like this first selection was a solid one...lots of opinions and close voting. Keep it up!

[The Next Generation 10]

I'd take PT before KM. I think Denver will struggle mightily to score pts this year and that will affect Moreno's stats big-time. PT will just get better and get more opportunities.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I'm not very high on either player - but you've got to like Pierre's upside over Moreno's.

 

Stats don't always tell the whole story, but something jumps out to me about the Denver backfield:

-Moreno: 3.8 ypc on 240 carries.

-Buckhalter: 5.4 ypc on 120 carries.

 

Again - I know some of that reflects the situation, or a long run late in a blow-out for Buckhalter...But the 1.6 ypc difference is STAGGERING. The Broncos have a great OLine (although some SERIOUS injury concerns heading into this season), yet Moreno was given every chance to succeed, and couldn't even post a 4.0 ypc mark.

 

As for the eye test, I'm not going to say Buckhalter was the better back, but Moreno looked like nothing special. A solid RB, who doesn't do anything exceptional, but doesn't have many weaknesses.

 

As for Thomas - if he's given 250 touches, he will be a top12 RB this year. Most RB's with 250 touches in that offense would be, so I'm not trying to hype him up to be a special talent. But he's tough, quick, good hands, and has a great all-around game that fits perfectly in the Saints offense.

 

If everything else is about equal, then the Saints offense >>>>> Broncos offense is the deciding factor for me.

 

This is a good summary for me.

 

In response to WhiteWonder, Hamilton does concern me a little re: Thomas, as I think Hamilton looked better at the goal line and the Saints will not hesitate to switch RBs in and out based on situation. If Thomas gets goal line opportunities early, he could be a short leash if he doesn't deliver.

 

I do prefer Thomas to Knowshon at this time though. Hate the direction the Broncos offense is going.

[Raider 84 29]

I'd hate to have these guys as my starters, but I'd go with Moreno because of his easy schedule against the run.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Just working my first go at projections this week. I happened to finish working through both the Denver and New Orleans team stats. Here's what I got:

 

Thomas 1000 yds rushing, 38 recepts, 300 yds receiving, 11 combined TDs.....Std FPs = 196; PPR FPs = 234

Moreno 1050 yds rushing, 34 recepts, 250 yds receiving, 8 combined TDs......Std FPs = 178; PPR FPS = 212

 

Very similar stats, but more TD opportunities in New Orleans' much more explosive offense. I concur with Mike MacGregor's take, as well as The Next Generation's observation above: "I think Denver will struggle mightily to score pts this year and that will affect Moreno's stats big-time. PT will just get better and get more opportunities". In either scoring format, PT should be ranked just at or near the top 10 RBs. I'm not at all concerned about the contract issue with Pierre, and while I believe that Moreno will make a nice progression from his rookie year totals, IMO CBuck will cut into Moreno's stats far more than Hamilton will cut into Thomas'.

 

I just looked at the FFToday projections which have Moreno with 192 Std FPs and Thomas with 174, obviously just the reverse of my own.

 

But Ill stick with my own projections here and call it for Pierre Thomas. (BTW, I just traded Mike Wallace and Fred Jackson for Thomas in a deep keeper league this week.)

[davidbostonisgood 2]

I'm not very high on either player - but you've got to like Pierre's upside over Moreno's.

 

Stats don't always tell the whole story, but something jumps out to me about the Denver backfield:

-Moreno: 3.8 ypc on 240 carries.

-Buckhalter: 5.4 ypc on 120 carries.

 

Again - I know some of that reflects the situation, or a long run late in a blow-out for Buckhalter...But the 1.6 ypc difference is STAGGERING. The Broncos have a great OLine (although some SERIOUS injury concerns heading into this season), yet Moreno was given every chance to succeed, and couldn't even post a 4.0 ypc mark.

 

As for the eye test, I'm not going to say Buckhalter was the better back, but Moreno looked like nothing special. A solid RB, who doesn't do anything exceptional, but doesn't have many weaknesses.

 

As for Thomas - if he's given 250 touches, he will be a top12 RB this year. Most RB's with 250 touches in that offense would be, so I'm not trying to hype him up to be a special talent. But he's tough, quick, good hands, and has a great all-around game that fits perfectly in the Saints offense.

 

If everything else is about equal, then the Saints offense >>>>> Broncos offense is the deciding factor for me.

I take it you didn't put their 2009 offensive line to the eye test.

[kmbryant09 1]

I take it you didn't put their 2009 offensive line to the eye test.

Denver's offensive line?? The OLine that (I believe), was top5 in LEAST sacks allowed? Or the same offensive line that allowed Buckhalter to OUTGAIN MORENO ON 1.6 YARDS PER CARRY??

[stonewall 647]

But Ill stick with my own projections here and call it for Pierre Thomas. (BTW, I just traded Mike Wallace and Fred Jackson for Thomas in a deep keeper league this week.)

 

Must be deep with young WR talent to move Wallace, Madd. But I do expect Pierre to be big this season and several to come.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Must be deep with young WR talent to move Wallace, Madd. But I do expect Pierre to be big this season and several to come.

 

On the contrary, my WRs are by far the weakest part of that team right now. But I knew my trading partner wanted Wallace and I knew what I had to do to do that deal.

 

I view Wallace as a low WR2/high WR3 right now and F Jackson as a low RB2/high RB3. I see Thomas as a low RB1.

 

Given the comparative FPs, it was a deal that I had to make. I'll just have to solve my WR problem later.

[We Tigers 71]

This one's tricky not only because of Hamilton, but also because of Reggie Bush. Payton really liked putting Reggie in for some sweeps and screens inside the 10 last year, and why not--he converted a ton of times from in close. Still, Bush was used the least he'd been used his whole career in 2009, both rushing and receiving. Probably more of a TD threat than a taking-carries threat. I think the workload for the backs will stay the same unless the team really struggles this year--the two years the Saints were successful in the Brees/Payton era, they had 472 and 468 carries, whereas in '07 and '08 they run fewer than 400 times.

 

If Hamilton can do what Bell did last year, I don't know why the Saints wouldn't use him that way--it was highly effective, and kept all their backs fresh for the late-season and playoff phase. I'd give him half of Bell's 172 carries, then about 60-70 or so to Pierre and the rest to Reggie. Pierre is probably looking at around 210 carries and 40 grabs, which'll probably put him just shy of 1000 yards rushing and around 300 receiving.

 

Even with the lesser workload, I'd probably still take him over Moreno. A team that loses Brandon Marshall and has injuries across the o-line is probably not going to run all that well. Moreno has the workload--and I do think he has the talent to be a star--but not on that team right now. I'll take Pierre's upside in the event of a Bush injury or Hamilton disappointing.