**Round Five & Six Commentary**

[Fumbleweed 545]

[RLLD 4,215]

Celek is a solid pick, there are perhaps some other TE's being given more love over him (not Clark or Gates, they belong above him), but you have to love the opportunity this guy has to now step up and become the top TE in the game, I am excited about him this year....

[Dan 66]

There were two other TEs in the mix, both of whom will be gone in this round, that I like quite a bit, as well. One, the reasoning for not taking him is pretty transparent, the other is just a sense that Celek is above him. In two starts with his new QB last year, Celek caught 8 passes for 104 yards . . . both times.

[RLLD 4,215]

There were two other TEs in the mix, both of whom will be gone in this round, that I like quite a bit, as well. One, the reasoning for not taking him is pretty transparent, the other is just a sense that Celek is above him. In two starts with his new QB last year, Celek caught 8 passes for 104 yards . . . both times.

 

[WhiteWonder 2,732]

back at my comp, need a few to digest the last 6 picks. will select shortly

[RLLD 4,215]

back at my comp, need a few to digest the last 6 picks. will select shortly

 

Go ahead and finish your boogers before you select, no worries....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,732]

Go ahead and finish your boogers before you select, no worries....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i broke that habbit months ago

[WhiteWonder 2,732]

Vernon Davis - Wont repeat last years numbers but I think he will still score his share of TD's. His QB play wont be any worse either. Considered waiting on 1 other TE but there are no guarantees with that guy at this point and with nothing standing out to me at WR or RB in this round that I can't match in the upcoming rounds, decided to pounce on Vernon.

[Dan 66]

Vernon Davis - Wont repeat last years numbers but I think he will still score his share of TD's. His QB play wont be any worse either. Considered waiting on 1 other TE but there are no guarantees with that guy at this point and with nothing standing out to me at WR or RB in this round that I can't match in the upcoming rounds, decided to pounce on Vernon.

 

I considered Davis, but think his numbers are unrepeatable in that offense. Love his talent, and certainly merits the pick, but I wish the offense around him was better. Very solid pick.

 

Finley was on my radar, too, but with Jennings already in the fold, I was trying to avoid locking my team into two NFL squads. Just didn't seem a very wise prospect.

 

There's a couple more, and I considered waiting til next turn, but given the run we're seeing currently, I'm glad I jumped.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Welp, just swung for the fences. Let's see if I hit it on the screws or strike out. Best wasn't coming back to me 14 picks later. So I pulled the trigger.

[RLLD 4,215]

Welp, just swung for the fences. Let's see if I hit it on the screws or strike out.

 

 

5.05 - RB Jahvid Best, DET

 

ARGGHH!!!! No way....I'd like to shake the living snot out of you right now....

[WhiteWonder 2,732]

Welp, just swung for the fences. Let's see if I hit it on the screws or strike out. Best wasn't coming back to me 14 picks later. So I pulled the trigger.

 

considered him very briefly at 5.04. I think he will have much more value in PPR formats in which case i may have snagged him. not a bad pick at all tho.

[WhiteWonder 2,732]

I considered Davis, but think his numbers are unrepeatable in that offense. Love his talent, and certainly merits the pick, but I wish the offense around him was better. Very solid pick.

 

i too wish that offense was better but its certainly not any worse than it was last year when he had those numbers.

 

crabtree has a 'year' under his belt, they added 2 1st round lineman who will help Gore but should also help the QB, and said QB is playing for the first time under the same offensive coordinator.

[RLLD 4,215]

i too wish that offense was better but its certainly not any worse than it was last year when he had those numbers.

 

crabtree has a 'year' under his belt, they added 2 1st round lineman who will help Gore but should also help the QB, and said QB is playing for the first time under the same offensive coordinator.

 

I wish I could have faith in their passing attack. I think Davis might be the best option if you are looking for receiving stats from that team.....I do think he can repeat the #'s from last year....

[Kitsnow 0]

When players draft well good players go earlier. Despite the love and maybe because of the love of a certain ADP site some will go even earlier than they think. This is the phase where lots of WR have risk choosing between main starters on lackluster teams or #2 on quality teams. But this year it seems more than that ______ had a terrible last year, will he bounce back? ____ is a rookie why take him early, but it's not like he has a lot of competition. ______ is dependent on shaky or a rookie QB. An earlier TE run makes sense because there is some stability there, despite the greater fantasy depth at that position than in the past, the top 4-6 will ultimately have a 20 fantasy point difference than the next set. In receivers your choosing between someone who could end up in the top 15 or below the top 30 and there isn't a lot of comfort there. Nevermind the other consideration that RB quality will drop hard soon and _____ who has an ADP a few rounds latter you were hoping to snake will get taken before that spot.

 

No name dropping, not even my draft.

 

-Scrub out.

[RLLD 4,215]

When players draft well good players go earlier. Despite the love and maybe because of the love of a certain ADP site some will go even earlier than they think. This is the phase where lots of WR have risk choosing between main starters on lackluster teams or #2 on quality teams. But this year it seems more than that ______ had a terrible last year, will he bounce back? ____ is a rookie why take him early, but it's not like he has a lot of competition. ______ is dependent on shaky or a rookie QB. An earlier TE run makes sense because there is some stability there, despite the greater fantasy depth at that position than in the past, the top 4-6 will ultimately have a 20 fantasy point difference than the next set. In receivers your choosing between someone who could end up in the top 15 or below the top 30 and there isn't a lot of comfort there. Nevermind the other consideration that RB quality will drop hard soon and _____ who has an ADP a few rounds latter you were hoping to snake will get taken before that spot.

 

No name dropping, not even my draft.

 

-Scrub out.

 

 

 

From another thread more concisely explaining...

 

ADP is useful mainly for the first three rounds, but can also bring value later as a "sanity check".

 

For this mock I use it to gauge how it unfolds against the groupthink elsewhere.

 

In the first three rounds if a pick is within metric of the groupthink ADP then I think we are observing a valid mock. However, if someone decides to go Mathews at #7 overall, then come back with Royal in round 2.....we are clearly observing an outlier, and it would tend to degrade the integrity of the mock as well....thus far I think we are observing a strong mock.

 

The first two rounds, and perhaps the third, almost follow an accepted script. We all know who will likely be taken, and about where, and it pretty much follows our collective logic. Most leagues are won in the later rounds,during the 4-6 span in particular, where that "gut feeling" takes over and we speculate on talent a bit more, find that gem that gives just enough points to drive a team past the others....this can happen later, but is a bit more rare....

 

So....ADP is valuable primarily as a sanity check to help keep the swill and and emotions in check during an actual draft.....its by no means a hard fast rule to follow , to be sure.... thumbup.gif

Rink

 

[Kitsnow 0]

True but there is still a bit of OMG I wanted him to drop to me going on, instead of darn I liked him good choice.

Now is the time to take who you want!

[Clash of the Titans 1]

we just had a monumental upset in the cup.......and this is all you folks have??

[RLLD 4,215]

True but there is still a bit of OMG I wanted him to drop to me going on, instead of darn I liked him good choice.

Now is the time to take who you want!

 

What you are observing is part of the June mock, the explanation and banter is integral to the intent and history of the event, beyond that its just plain fun....

[RLLD 4,215]

we just had a monumental upset in the cup.......and this is all you folks have??

 

In your Saban Drool-Cup?

[NAn 39]

TE run....decent picks, maybe one more then should be quiet on that front for a rnd or two.

 

Like Best pick....nice value with great upside. Think he plays bigger than his size but he does have injury concerns. At this pt though solid pick.

[WhiteWonder 2,732]

True but there is still a bit of OMG I wanted him to drop to me going on, instead of darn I liked him good choice.

Now is the time to take who you want!

 

i think you are assuming people are avoiding guys they want based on ADP.

 

i dont think this is the case at all. I think they are drafting players they still want and also hoping another guy they like falls to them.

 

in any draft if you like 2 players but one of them has an ADP a round and a half later, which are you going to take? you realize it isn't likely the 2nd player makes it back to you but you still hope.

[RLLD 4,215]

i think you are assuming people are avoiding guys they want based on ADP.

 

i dont think this is the case at all. I think they are drafting players they still want and also hoping another guy they like falls to them.

 

in any draft if you like 2 players but one of them has an ADP a round and a half later, which are you going to take? you realize it isn't likely the 2nd player makes it back to you but you still hope.

 

Correct.

 

That reminds me, jeez, i gotta get over to the IBL bored today....

[Fumbleweed 545]

I was hoping Nicks would make it to me...that's a REALLY good pick.

[RLLD 4,215]

I was hoping Nicks would make it to me...that's a REALLY good pick.

 

Agree completely, loved the pick...Nicks has the potential to emerge as a top 10 WR this year if he continues developing, he has a very high ceiling too....

[KSB2424 3,148]

If I'm going to be honest, and "keep it real", I really hate the Steve Smith (NYG) pick. He is simply way over-valued to me. I realize his ADP is about at this spot and all, but he just doesn't pass the eye test for me. I've seen a thousand WR's with his skill set. Nothing special whatsoever. Once the defenses last year started paying any attention to him he went back in his shell.

 

Sorry. Just my opinion.

[RLLD 4,215]

If I'm going to be honest, and "keep it real", I really hate the Steve Smith (NYG) pick. He is simply way over-valued to me. I realize his ADP is about at this spot and all, but he just doesn't pass the eye test for me. I've seen a thousand WR's with his skill set. Nothing special whatsoever. Once the defenses last year started paying any attention to him he went back in his shell.

 

Sorry. Just my opinion.

 

I am not a "fan" either.....I would actively avoid drafting him in general, and would not likely spend higher than a round 6 on him....

[JScott 20]

Got a work call, sorry for the brief delay...

 

The other Steve Smith - While more effective in a PPR format, his yac #s can't be ignored. He gets alot of touches and his total yardage is reflective of that. The NYG QB had his best year as a pro last year and I expect more of the same, especially with the D waivering and the ground game not as potent as it was thought to be. The WR corp is developing nicely and I see NYG shifting towards the pass and a little more away from the run (ala PIT a few years ago). The QB and Smith's bread-and-butter is the slant play. Run mid-field Smith has the quicks to take it the distance if the QB delivers in stride. And near the goalline it's a tough play to stop so Smith will get his TDs as well (IMO 8 this season).

 

Very happy to get him in the 5th as I almost pulled the trigger on him in the 4th, but felt it was a reach then. Didn't expect him to make it back to me.

[WhiteWonder 2,732]

ok i will add another vote for generally avoiding Smith in fantasy drafts.

 

i think some of the analysis of him as a player is wrong. I think he is a very good WR who doesn't get the credit he deserves. But for fantasy purposes, especially in this format, Nicks is the Giants WR you want to own as I just do not think Smith will find the endzone often enough.

 

another part of avoiding Smith is that we are at a point where I have a list of 15 or so WR's who really are on about the same level

[JScott 20]

If I'm going to be honest, and "keep it real", I really hate the Steve Smith (NYG) pick. He is simply way over-valued to me. I realize his ADP is about at this spot and all, but he just doesn't pass the eye test for me. I've seen a thousand WR's with his skill set. Nothing special whatsoever. Once the defenses last year started paying any attention to him he went back in his shell.

 

Sorry. Just my opinion.

 

I think your view is relative. Smith had two crazy games early on 134yds 1+ TDs, and he declined from there so the impression is he "went back in his shell". I don't expect those types of games from Smith on a regular basis, but if the D is playing off (cover-2) Smith will get his yac. And in his "decline" when "defenses started paying attention" he still put up 10+ fantasy pts in 3 of the last 5 games. The QB trusts him and looks his way A LOT. He started off so high, that even with the decline he still settled in to good numbers.

[JScott 20]

I remember alot of the same comments about certain Patriot WR a few years back. Nothing special physically (not 6'5"), only a possesion type of WR, will get muscled off his routes, too small to be a redzone threat.

 

I'm not saying Smith is ______ but overlooking a "possesion" WR just because it's a non-ppr format is short-sited IMHO.

[Fumbleweed 545]

I think your view is relative. Smith had two crazy games early on 134yds 1+ TDs, and he declined from there so the impression is he "went back in his shell". I don't expect those types of games from Smith on a regular basis, but if the D is playing off (cover-2) Smith will get his yac. And in his "decline" when "defenses started paying attention" he still put up 10+ fantasy pts in 3 of the last 5 games. The QB trusts him and looks his way A LOT. He started off so high, that even with the decline he still settled in to good numbers.

 

I have comparisons to make to Smith, but they involve players not yet picked.

 

I don't have an issue with the pick. Smith would have been my pick at 5.11 potentially depending on what happens in the next couple of picks.

[Fumbleweed 545]

Color me stunned. Never thought Wes Welker would be picked this soon. HUGE gamble there.

 

I also am surprised that Jones made it back to me. As always, staying healthy is an issue for him, but the upside is undeniable.

[robb 81]

ahhhhhhhh.....I was debating between Welker of Jones. Said to my self, "self, both guys behind me have 2 running backs, they waon't take a third running back".

 

Screw "self", I would have liked Jones on the backside, but won't happen now! Nice pick Weed!

 

I would have taken Steve Smith at 5.10 also had he been available.

 

But, I do believe Mr. Welker will recover from his injuries and be a 90-100 reception guy this year and at the end of round 5---he is a value selection!

[WhiteWonder 2,732]

Welker has been practicing, running routes etc and supposedly looks good but you just never know what info you will get out of New England and I hear he has only been practicing for about 30 minutes most days. If he start the season close to 100% he is great value even in this format as he is capable of 1300 and 6.

 

Also shocked someone didn't board the felix jones bandwagon sooner.

 

like the ronnie brown pick.

[JScott 20]

ahhhhhhhh.....I was debating between Welker of Jones. Said to my self, "self, both guys behind me have 2 running backs, they waon't take a third running back".

 

Screw "self", I would have liked Jones on the backside, but won't happen now! Nice pick Weed!

 

I would have taken Steve Smith at 5.10 also had he been available.

 

But, I do believe Mr. Welker will recover from his injuries and be a 90-100 reception guy this year and at the end of round 5---he is a value selection!

 

If Welker lasted until the 7th I definitely would have taken the gamble, in the 6th I probably would have thought about it. The 5th was a little early for my tastes at this piont in the off-season. Could be a huge steal if he continues to recover at the rate the media is reporting though.

[RLLD 4,215]

I was debating between Brown, Welker and Jones......

 

Ultimately I was left to decide between Brown and Jones......I was really uncomfortable making a choice between them, and actually tried to justify going for other players, but ultimately kept coming back to these two....

 

This was one of those "gut check" moments where I just had to decide what factors I should legitimately consider, I started with the starburst technique, and then used it to populate a PMI which did not help until I then threw the mix of data and burst into a decision tree and decision circle

 

Ultimately the composition of the various approaches led me to Brown often enough to justify the selection in my mind

[ICEMAN 44]

I was debating between Brown, Welker and Jones......

 

Ultimately I was left to decide between Brown and Jones......I was really uncomfortable making a choice between them, and actually tried to justify going for other players, but ultimately kept coming back to these two....

 

This was one of those "gut check" moments where I just had to decide what factors I should legitimately consider, I started with the starburst technique, and then used it to populate a PMI which did not help until I then threw the mix of data and burst into a decision tree and decision circle

 

Ultimately the composition of the various approaches led me to Brown often enough to justify the selection in my mind

 

I was thinking the same thing...

 

 

ICEMAN

[RLLD 4,215]

I was thinking the same thing...

 

 

ICEMAN

 

You're a meaner.....

[KSB2424 3,148]

I had Felix, Best, and Ronnie all ranked beside one another. I simply picked the rookie because, well, it was more fun to do so.