Here goes nothing

[giraldi02 470]

Usually I don't like to post lengthy posts and leave it to the more established and clearly more knowledgeable posters (MFM, Stonewall, etc), however I figured I'd give it a shot with some players that I think based on ADP and their situations have a great chance of performing exceptionally well this year, especially relative to their draft position. I did a couple at each position, and merely it's a test for myself to see where I'm at writing this kind of thing, but feel free to add your own players or criticisms.

 

Everyone is looking for value, whether it's the next Ryan Grant who rescues a team in mid-season, or a Peyton Hillis who begins the year on waiver wires everywhere, only to finish 11th in total yards rushing and have one more reception than Mike Wallace (a player who in PPR Redrafts is going 3 spots higher than Hillis according to MFL ADP results on real drafts for 12 team leagues). Value is a relative word. It varies according the league format, the ADP, and the owner themselves. What remains constant is the fact that the middle rounds of ANY fantasy draft are where teams can gain a competitive edge on their opponents.

 

With all that said, who are the value picks this season?

 

QB:

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben last year was a valuable asset to many fantasy teams last season, if they were willing to wait the first four weeks of the season. This season, there is no suspension, the Steelers are healthy, and Big Ben is being drafted with Josh Freeman in the 6th round. Nearly two full rounds after Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Now, Brady had an exceptional year last season. Brady had 36 touchdowns to four interceptions, but was his season all that stellar? If you extrapolate Roethlisberger's PPG to account for the four missed games, he scored only about 2 points per game less than Brady. Two seasons ago, Roethlisberger was the 7th ranked quarterback, a mere four total points shy of...Tom Brady. TWO FULL ROUNDS. Throw in a fantasy playoff schedule against the Browns, 49ers (who is in their secondary anymore?) and the Rams for good measure.

 

Jay Cutler: He's a coward. He's not tough enough. He faked an injury to avoid the Packers. He's STILL the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears, and he's being drafted in the 9th round on average. Most people are going to look at the offensive line and see the same type of punishment for Cutler. Enough about the offensive line, let's talk Cutler. He won't win you fantasy titles with his play. But he does put up enough points, especially with his legs, to keep you close. Since Cutler has become a starter in Denver, he has averaged 202 yards rushing per season. Aaron Rodgers averages 293 per season in his first three years. Everyone loves Rodgers for his dual threat in fantasy (well, for Rodgers it's his ridiculous point total too) but Cutler seems to be dismissed for that ability. The interceptions are a big turnoff, and if you're in a league that penalizes sacks you might stray away. Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Kyle Orton all scored relatively the same amount of points as Cutler last season, and each has more questions or concerns about their respective offense this season than Cutler. Pair Cutler and Flacco together and you get a good bye-week fill-in for each (Cutler gets the Lions on his bye week, Flacco gets Arizona. Flacco and the Ravens also face the Browns in week 16 while the Bears face the Packers.

 

Notable Mention:

 

Josh Freeman (sexy pick this year for the rushing yards and upstart team)

 

RB (PPR Leagues):

 

Mike Tolbert: Quick, who scored more touchdowns last season? Matt Forte and Maurice Jones Drew combined or Mike Tolbert? If you answered they both scored the same, you'd be correct. Here's an easier one...Who had more receptions? Mike Tolbert or Rashard Mendenhall? Big Mike is BIG value this season. Ryan Mathews can't avoid the injury bug, and Norv Turner has already been more than willing to devote carries Tolbert's way. In Tolbert's first two seasons, he had a reception of more than 60 yards each season. Oh, he's available in the 9th or 10th round.

Peyton Hillis: Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, well...I won't get fooled again. I didn't buy it in Denver. I was too slow last season to heed the advice that Hillis was a potential superstar fantasy-wise. Not this year. With an ADP in the beginning of the 3rd round, we are talking MAJOR value for a guy that bull-dozed everyone last season save the Steelers. Quick, tell me who was the most added free-agent last season after week one? Brandon Jackson would be your answer.

 

Here's our own Antonio D'Arcangelis

Brandon Jackson, GB (BUF, @CHI, DET, @WAS) – Ryan Grant says the ankle injury is no big deal, but suffice to say Jackson is a must-add if he misses any time, which it looks like he will – at least a couple weeks, according to reports. Editor's Note: Ryan Grant is out for the year making Jackson a high waiver wire priority.

 

That same guy that couldn't save anyone's roster in Green Bay is behind Hillis on the depth chart, and people are worrying about Hillis losing touches? You go ahead and skip Hillis. I'll gladly take him. Oh, by the way, Hillis only faces the Steelers once this season in most fantasy leagues. The Browns face Pittsburgh in week 17.

 

Noteable Mention:

 

Deangelo Williams (you think he gets that kind of contract and doesn't collect the majority of the carries?)

Justin Forsett - I don't buy the Lynch hype, and I don't want the price tag of spending a 6th rounder on him.

Daniel Thomas - To the common fantasy player, Reggie Bush is taking his job. To the astute fantasy player, Reggie Bush is still Reggie Bush.

 

WR (PPR Leagues)

 

 

Mario Manningham: Surely his ADP will rise after the departure of Steve Smith, but there is still great value for a player that caught 60 balls for nearly 950 yards last season. Surprisingly as well, Hakeem Nicks caught 11 touchdowns. Manningham? Nine! Last season Nicks outscored Manningham by about 2.5 points per game. The difference in cost this year? Drafting Nicks at an average pick of 13.72 and taking Manningham 66 picks later. Manningham is still young as well and has shown improvement each year in the league. Last season was his third year in the league and he made the jump to being a very solid starting receiver in the NFL. He is a first down threat, a deep threat, and he's a steal for those willing to fill other positions early and often and wait on WRs until the 2nd/3rd tiered guys start getting drafted.

 

Anquan Boldin: Boldin is slipping under the radar this season, and it could be due to his 2nd lowest reception total of his career last season. However Derrick Mason is gone, and TJ Houshman-championship is yet to be re-signed. So what does that mean for Boldin? I'd say more intermediate and short catches that are an extension of a great running game. Boldin might not ever top 100 catches again, but in this offense he doesn't need to. He's a big threat in the red-zone, he's still under 30 for the beginning part of the season, and he's a good WR2 when paired with an elite WR can do the job.

 

Tight Ends (PPR Leagues)

 

Visanthe Shiancoe - 76 catches, 77 catches, ?? catches. Donovan Mcnabb is in Minnesota, and he LOVES to throw to tight ends. Brent Celek caught 76 in 09. Cooley caught 77 last season, granted 15 came in the three weeks that McNabb was benched, however you can see where this trend is going. If I'm playing the waiting game on a tight end, I'm looking at a few players late, and Shiancoe is definitely one of those players. In many leagues, Shiancoe is going undrafted. I'd expect that to change by the time the regular season starts and people get a chance to watch pre-season games.

 

Jimmy Graham: A lot of people are hyping Graham up, and I'm one of the people that is certainly willing to buy. The top five tight ends are going to come off the board in most leagues (Gates, Witten, Clark, Finley, Davis). After that, it really becomes a matter of "reaching" or waiting. Four of his touchdowns came in the final three weeks on 11 catches. Now I wouldn't expect that kind of Dwayne Bowe-ish like stat, but he's a safety net in the middle of the field on a spread offense that likes to throw the ball all around to the tight ends. Last season 102 passes were completed to New Orleans tight ends. That's 22% of Drew Brees' completions. Jeremy Shockey is gone and David Thomas is the only competition for Graham. Sixth round ADP.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

First of all you're a moron. Cutler did not fake the injury and had a second degree meniscus tear in his knee. He couldn't even put weight on it and that's why all of his throws after the tear were going straight into the ground. He told the coaches he was going back in but they wouldn't let him because that would have been some of the worst coaching and stupid besides the point. I can see some of your sleepers here having good years but even if you don't trust Lynch it really is just as much a product of their offense as a whole and I highly doubt Forsett should have any more trust placed in him.

[giraldi02 470]

First of all you're a moron. Cutler did not fake the injury and had a second degree meniscus tear in his knee. He couldn't even put weight on it and that's why all of his throws after the tear were going straight into the ground. He told the coaches he was going back in but they wouldn't let him because that would have been some of the worst coaching and stupid besides the point. I can see some of your sleepers here having good years but even if you don't trust Lynch it really is just as much a product of their offense as a whole and I highly doubt Forsett should have any more trust placed in him.

 

Evidently I didn't make it clear...those comments regarding Cutler were his criticisms after the playoff game. I don't have any feelings whatsoever about him. I think he's a good quarterback who can play a lot better than last season.

 

And regarding Forsett...look, I don't think he's going to put up Cedric Benson numbers, but its about value. Is Marshawn Lynch really head and shoulders above him? Especially 10 rounds above him? I'll take the guy late who can put up similar numbers rather than burning a 6th. Just me.

[mccombsau 5]

"moron"? That is a little harsh. I enjoyed your analysis and appreciate the thought you put in it regardless if I Agee with you

 

I will never carry Cutler on a fantasy team though, he really burned me 2 years ago with 3000 interceptions

[c9h13no3 0]

Jimmy Graham: A lot of people are hyping Graham up, and I'm one of the people that is certainly willing to buy....Sixth round ADP.

Being drafted as the 8th tight end off the board, I really don't see how this is a value pick. The price already has massive improvement baked in.

 

A value pick should inevitably have a price significantly lower than where you think that player will finish. For example, Felix Jones is like the 24th running back off the board, and if you think he'll finish as the 12th best, you've got 12 spots of value.

 

Graham just doesn't have much room to provide value, given his price.

[ralphster 274]

Good post Giraldi - you're a better writer than you give yourself credit for. I appreciate you taking the time to voice your opinions.

 

I too think Graham's hype has pushed him too far up most draft boards to be much of a value pick. Three weeks ago that wasn't the case, but now every FF expert with a column is filling the down time writing about how Graham lit up at the end of last year and is in line for more greatness this year. I have the same thoughts about Shaincoe though, and he's been falling to me in the 10th or later in most drafts.

 

Forsett was lights out when they finally gave him the ball two years ago after spending time riding the pine while Julius Jones (!) was starting for whatever reason. He's very different from Lynch and should see 3rd down work here and there. I don't think he's much of a value unless Lynch gets hurt.

 

Also I agree that the moron comment was harsh. Forzenbeernuts is new around here, so take most of what he says with a grain of salt. He's also a Bears homer, so that could explain his defense of Cutler. I play in an INT penalty league, so I won't touch Jay at all - even though I think he's going to be much better this year. Rothlisberger is a different story though; I feel like he's going to have a top 8 type year - very good value in the 6th.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Good post Giraldi - you're a better writer than you give yourself credit for. I appreciate you taking the time to voice your opinions.

 

I too think Graham's hype has pushed him too far up most draft boards to be much of a value pick. Three weeks ago that wasn't the case, but now every FF expert with a column is filling the down time writing about how Graham lit up at the end of last year and is in line for more greatness this year. I have the same thoughts about Shaincoe though, and he's been falling to me in the 10th or later in most drafts.

 

Forsett was lights out when they finally gave him the ball two years ago after spending time riding the pine while Julius Jones (!) was starting for whatever reason. He's very different from Lynch and should see 3rd down work here and there. I don't think he's much of a value unless Lynch gets hurt.

 

Also I agree that the moron comment was harsh. Forzenbeernuts is new around here, so take most of what he says with a grain of salt. He's also a Bears homer, so that could explain his defense of Cutler. I play in an INT penalty league, so I won't touch Jay at all - even though I think he's going to be much better this year. Rothlisberger is a different story though; I feel like he's going to have a top 8 type year - very good value in the 6th.

 

I know my fantasy football so you can trust my insight though i dont care if you do or not. Been playing for about 10 years so im definately not new. I just started posting on forums is all. I took it as your opinion that cutler was a puss and i really dont care if you think hes a puss anyway. I just get mad when people like MJD who is also a puss says cutler faked it. MJD sat out more games than cutler because of a knee injury. I do get a little intense sometimes but usually when people lie. You clarrified your stance that it was others opinions you were stating so at least everyone else understood your point of view.

 

I also woke up at 1am and couldnt fall asleel so i was a little off my meds (not literally). Sorry if i soured your responses a little. Believe me though if you have a league that doesnt penalize for int then draft cutler as a backup. He will have a lot of yards and im gonna say at least 26 td.

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Good post and good info, we need more people to post and to do it in depth like you did. Great stuff keep it up.

 

I am buying Rapesiburger in as many leagues as I can get him, good value. Tolberts ADP is starting to rise but still a good gamble. I like Hillis and Bolden quite a bit too, especially with the addition of Evans in Baltimore.

 

I will disagree with you on the Forsett thing though, Lynch is going to get a lot of carries, Forsett has flashed at times but just does not get a break. My interpertation is the coaches are seeing something we the fans are not and he is not going to be the #2RB. I would actually look at Leon Washington as the backup #2RB threat. He was awfully good on the Jets before that horrible leg injury and he has regained his burst as last years kickoff returns would tell you. If Lynch gets hurt I think Washington is the RB you want not Forsett. He got used on several series last night and looked good.

[BufordT 372]

I've been looking at Mark Sanchez. If he keeps progressing he'll be better than Rothlisburger and Cutler. He wasn't that far behind them last year. I think the Jets realize that they have to be more balanced on offense to get to the next level. Sanchez can throw the ball and the offense line is pretty stout, unlike Cutler's.

 

I wouldn't mind if some set me straight at this point with some counterpoints because I'm starting to believe myself when it comes to Sanchez.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

I've been looking at Mark Sanchez. If he keeps progressing he'll be better than Rothlisburger and Cutler. He wasn't that far behind them last year. I think the Jets realize that they have to be more balanced on offense to get to the next level. Sanchez can throw the ball and the offense line is pretty stout, unlike Cutler's.

 

I wouldn't mind if some set me straight at this point with some counterpoints because I'm starting to believe myself when it comes to Sanchez.

 

Sanchez makes me leery. I've been hearing what a stud he is since he signed with USC, but I've just never seen it. So far, all he's shown me is that he can, at times, be a capable game manager.

[BufordT 372]

Sanchez makes me leery. I've been hearing what a stud he is since he signed with USC, but I've just never seen it. So far, all he's shown me is that he can, at times, be a capable game manager.

Agree with most of that, this is a telling year for Sanchez. Does he keep progressing or does he flatten out?? If he progresses again, we could be talking about 25-30 total TD's out of this guy and if my QB1 gets hurt I'll take that. If he flattens out....then this game makes me look stupid again.

[Mike FF Today 611]

First of all you're a moron.

No more of this please. Thank you.

[giraldi02 470]

My biggest concern about Mark Sanchez is the type of offense he's in. I don't know whether he's truely limited as a quarterback or not, but it seems that Rexs offense requires a Trent Dilfer type. Limit the mistakes, execute when needed, and hand that ball off at least 30 times a game.

 

Santonio Holmes and Plaxico are great red zone targets, I just don't know how many opportunities Sanchez will get down there. Tomlinson, Greene, and possibly Mcknight all should be utilized down there.

 

He'd be a good QB2 with upside, but I don't want to gamble on him producing numbers that I require for my starting quarterback.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I've been looking at Mark Sanchez. If he keeps progressing he'll be better than Rothlisburger and Cutler. He wasn't that far behind them last year. I think the Jets realize that they have to be more balanced on offense to get to the next level. Sanchez can throw the ball and the offense line is pretty stout, unlike Cutler's.

 

I wouldn't mind if some set me straight at this point with some counterpoints because I'm starting to believe myself when it comes to Sanchez.

I do not believe in sanchez being an elite quarterback. I think his ceiling for the year is 22 td. He has not shown me the flashes of greatness you see from the elite. He has shown signs of improvement and i believe will be a game manager soon enough. Even though i dont believe elite status is in his future i was quite annoyed that the pundits were saying 2 games into the season he is looking like a bust and couldnt handle the scope of the game. Really? it was his second year in the league, only his 18th regular season game and he was in charge of a team that went to the championship game. Qbs used to get 5 years to develop. I dont expect it to take that long but give the guy a chance.

[tackle_football 0]

Hillis won't lose carries to B Jackson, I agree. He will however lose some to Hardesty.

[Herbivore 916]

I do not believe in sanchez being an elite quarterback. I think his ceiling for the year is 22 td. He has not shown me the flashes of greatness you see from the elite. He has shown signs of improvement and i believe will be a game manager soon enough. Even though i dont believe elite status is in his future i was quite annoyed that the pundits were saying 2 games into the season he is looking like a bust and couldnt handle the scope of the game. Really? it was his second year in the league, only his 18th regular season game and he was in charge of a team that went to the championship game. Qbs used to get 5 years to develop. I dont expect it to take that long but give the guy a chance.

 

Agree with most of this, he definately did catch a little too much crap. Would say he was very good QB2 option in a 2 QB league.

[stonewall 647]

Usually I don't like to post lengthy posts and leave it to the more established and clearly more knowledgeable posters (MFM, Stonewall, etc), however I figured I'd give it a shot with some players that I think based on ADP and their situations have a great chance of performing exceptionally well this year, especially relative to their draft position.

 

 

You mention my name, you get a response.......seriously, thanks for the undeserved props, bro. Personally, I thought your effort was very well thought out and researched. You should continue these types of helpful and thought-provoking threads as you have opportunity. Whether we agree or not is beside the point....it makes everyone think and consider.

 

Of course, you know that I am right there with you on Hillis, and I hope he has a quite preseason. Big Ben is always a low-end QB1 with a lot of upside when considering his ADP. Cutler is a guy who I will be targeting as a QB2 in redrafts, since I plan on grabbing a top-tier QB early. He can sling the rock, and is a perfect bye-week fill-in or injury insurance policy. Rivers, although he will cost you an early pick, just seems poised to off this year.

 

I am probably staying away from rookies this year......mostly because of the lock-out and the injury concerns and the extended learning curve it creates. I care nothing for the Bengals or Benson, in fact I have never drafted him, but his ADP is very compelling. He could be a RB2 with RB1 upside. Felix Jones, who has the ability if healthy, will be given the opportunity to be the man in the Dallas high-powered offense, and his current ADP is a steal. Of course Choice will get some carries, and would be gold if Felix went down (which isn't a stretch). Murray may come on mid-late season, and is an incredibly talented back.....but I think he comes on slowly. Also, Green for the NYJ's really has a golden opportunity this season to be top-10, and getting him in the early 3rd would be perfect value. Beanie still worries me (hiss pro-level talent), but like Felix, I believe that he will be given ample opportunity to be a 20-25 touch back and the goal line back. Ryan Williams will also probably be brought along gradually, and he is only 5'9" and 207 as compared to Beanie being 6'2" and 230. Beanie knows this is his last shot, he seems motivated.......and with Hightower out of the way, he has the perfect opportunity. Kendall Hunter is a rookie to watch in SF, but it will likely be late in the year or next year before he really shines, unless Gore goes down (crazy notion). I have watched Hunter many times at OSU, and he, like Murray from OU, is a stud. I am considering drafting both Grant and Starks in one league. Their ADP is tasty, and I am basically betting that one of them gets hurt. GB's pass game just opens the run game wide, and one of these two guys can be weekly difference maker. Mendenhall drafters should grab Redman as a handcuff. The kid is a baller, for sure.....and Pitt will always pound the ball. I believe that he is a better RB than Dwyer.....although both are 230 pounders. You mentioned DWill, and I have always loved his talent. He could blow up at anytime without notice, but the situation in Carolina scares me.......it makes Cleveland look like an offensive juggernaut. Stewart will get fed the ball, even though DWill is the money-man.

 

WR's are fairly deep. Again, I will shy away from rookies unless they fall in my lap. I believe in Fitzy, and his ADP is still attractive. I also believe in S. Rice.....whoever is tossing him the ball. He will be my WR2 in several leagues. Mike Thomas, although in a topsy-turvy situation in Jacksonville, is a great value and a truly good football player. If the Jags don't collapse, and with MSW gone, he could shock many this season. Kenny Britt was just so good late last season, that he can't be ignored. His situation is a little up in the air, but his talent and, more importantly, value.... is unarguable. Mike Wallace is positioned to be a top-5 guy at seasons end also. I agree with you on Manningham. His ADP is ridiculous, and he is a borderline weekly play. If Nicks misses any time.....watch out.

 

TE's are a tough one. Graham is a monster, and will move some chains and catch some TD's, but Brees is known for spreading the ball around, and Grahams ADP keeps rising. I may grab TE early, and still love Finley........but more likely will grab Owen Daniels. He still has an attractive ADP, has great hands in a great offense, and should be big this year.

 

After a few more preseason games, I will try to post my final analysis on value picks. My usual conclusions have been muddled and delayed due to the lock-out. Again......great thread.

[giraldi02 470]

I'm glad you mentioned Felix Jones. I think he has outstanding potential this season. Last year when Garrett took over the cowboys became a balanced team. 50% run 50% pass. Prior to that with Wade Phillips it was about 32% run and 68% pass. Last year Jones also was 3rd in receptions for Dallas, three more than Dez Bryant. So with Garrett, he can hopefully, from purely a fantasy perspective, capitalize and have an amazing season.

[stonewall 647]

I forgot to mention another WR that I am convinced is gonna be huge this year.....VJ. Yes, you still have to pay for him, but considering his ceiling, he is a steal. Expecting a monster year from this guy. Rivers completely trusts him, and will put it up to him often......and long.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Haven't read the entire thread but I'll toss Santana Moss as WR 3/4 that could fit the role perfectly. Grossman is serviceable and despite his proclamations otherwise they will be playing from behind often. I can see many garbage time points for Moss.

[stonewall 647]

Haven't read the entire thread but I'll toss Santana Moss as WR 3/4 that could fit the role perfectly. Grossman is serviceable and despite his proclamations otherwise they will be playing from behind often. I can see many garbage time points for Moss.

 

 

Moss certainly looked in good form tonight.....7/64/1.

[Gladiators 1,911]

Haven't read the entire thread but I'll toss Santana Moss as WR 3/4 that could fit the role perfectly. Grossman is serviceable and despite his proclamations otherwise they will be playing from behind often. I can see many garbage time points for Moss.

 

I like him as a WR3 in PPR. I'm not real confident in Grossman being servicable, but someone's going to be throwing the ball and I agree they'll be playing from behind.

[IGotWorms 3,405]

Nice list, but I do disagree on Boldin and Graham. I just don't think that Boldin has it anymore. Last year it seemed like he couldn't get any separation. Maybe he just didn't have good rapport with Flacco but I think there was something more to his decline. At age 31 I don't expect that to turn around.

 

As for Graham, as others have mentioned, he is being taken relatively high for what he has actually accomplished. He could be much better this year but that is already assumed by where people are drafting him. So I don't think he represents great value unless he finishes top 5, which would surprise me.

 

As far as players I would add, the New Orleans wide receivers (Moore & Meachem) jump out at me. Reggie Bush is gone and Marques Colston's health is in serious question. I could see both of those guys getting a bump this year with the outside chance that one of them really explodes.

[giraldi02 470]

To Igotworms...

 

I've seen a lot of people torn between Moore and Meachem. I believe the last I checked they were both being drafted around the same area.

 

I personally like Lance Moore and drafted him in my first draft of the season. I think his skill set creates matchup problems in the fact that he can line up at all spots on the field. With Bush gone, it gives Payton the chance to keep his playbook wide open.

 

Do you feel either player has a distinct advantage fantasy wise? And a subsequent question would be, can either player maintain prolonged success throughout the season in Sean Paytons offense? New Orleans homers?

[IGotWorms 3,405]

Do you feel either player has a distinct advantage fantasy wise? And a subsequent question would be, can either player maintain prolonged success throughout the season in Sean Paytons offense? New Orleans homers?

 

I think one of them does, but unfortunately I don't know which one it is. Obviously Meachem is more likely to become something like a #1 receiver. Perhaps he can be the new Marques Colston. Moore probably won't get you 1,000 yards AND a lot of touchdowns, but on the other hand he could be a PPR monster. So in a standard league I'd probably roll the dice on Meachem and in a PPR I'd likely go with Moore. Both are good value at their current ADP because if you choose wrong, or neither of them works out, you aren't really out much.

 

I would also be interested in hearing from some NO homers, though.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Isn't really a sleeper as much of a value pick but owens Daniels. When the dude was finally healthy at the end of the season he put up ppg numbers on par with the best at the position outside of gates. I really think he has a chance to be the top te this year and at his adp he's a steal IMO.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I forgot to mention another WR that I am convinced is gonna be huge this year.....VJ. Yes, you still have to pay for him, but considering his ceiling, he is a steal. Expecting a monster year from this guy. Rivers completely trusts him, and will put it up to him often......and long.

I am on board with him having a great year. I dont know about steal because i have seen him go as high as 2.02 ahead of white andre and fitz. I guess if you draft a guy who has a monster season it was a steal wherever you drafted him.

[giraldi02 470]

Isn't really a sleeper as much of a value pick but owens Daniels. When the dude was finally healthy at the end of the season he put up ppg numbers on par with the best at the position outside of gates. I really think he has a chance to be the top te this year and at his adp he's a steal IMO.

 

 

Another great candidate for value. I think its crazy that in a matter of three years, we have gone from needing an elite tight end to having at least ten solid options. Additionally there's more guys that can put up respectable numbers too. What's Owen Daniels ADP currently?

[stonewall 647]

What's Owen Daniels ADP currently?

 

His current ADP is 6.11 in 12 man redrafts. Happily got him in the mid 7th tonight.

[c9h13no3 0]

Another great candidate for value. I think its crazy that in a matter of three years, we have gone from needing an elite tight end to having at least ten solid options. Additionally there's more guys that can put up respectable numbers too. What's Owen Daniels ADP currently?

Yeah, Owen is the one tight end that isn't in the big 5 that could make the jump to the #1 spot. He's in a tier all his own, right after the big 5, but before the "rest of the TE's you draft in round 13" tier.

[stonewall 647]

 

 

Noteable Mention:

 

Deangelo Williams (you think he gets that kind of contract and doesn't collect the majority of the carries?)

 

 

I must admit that DWill looked exceptionally good against the NYG 1st teamers. He was quick and explosive, and gutting them for huge gains, both running the rock and catching it out of the backfield......just like old times. Of course, Stewart will get his, but if Carolina can have some semblance of an offense this season, which is still questionable, so D's don't key on DWill, he certainly has the talent to blow up......I have never doubted that. They were just SO putrid last season offensively. However, my ears are perking up more and more to DWill at his current ADP.

[murf74 461]

Let's make this the first and last time we see a subject "Matty Ice".

 

[giraldi02 470]

I must admit that DWill looked exceptionally good against the NYG 1st teamers. He was quick and explosive, and gutting them for huge gains, both running the rock and catching it out of the backfield......just like old times. Of course, Stewart will get his, but if Carolina can have some semblance of an offense this season, which is still questionable, so D's don't key on DWill, he certainly has the talent to blow up......I have never doubted that. They were just SO putrid last season offensively. However, my ears are perking up more and more to DWill at his current ADP.

 

Wholeheartedly agree. I just hope I can still get him around where he's currently going. I want the snickers of other owners saying he's in a timeshare and the panthers offense sucks etc etc.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

What do you think about the following...

 

Moreno - Talented back, with orton a decent Qb, great ADP?

 

Addai - It wasn't too long ago this guy was being drafted in the top 5. How does the split with him an brown pan out?

 

Shon Greene - In the 6th? Really? Seems like a steal...

[prancers 0]

I'll give you my 2 cents fwiw on each of the guys you listed.

 

I disagree a little bit with you on Ben and Cutler. You say only 2 PPG difference between Ben and Brady? That's a much bigger difference than you seem to think. I don't think either of these guys are overrated, but I don't see either as underrated either. QB is very deep this year. The top 7 (if you include Romo) are all proven and very good and give you a bit more PPG than Ben. And there is a huge tier of guys who give you great numbers and have upside with Ben, Schaub, Ryan, Stafford, Freeman, Flacco, Bradford, Eli, Cutler, etc. I feel like if you pass on one of the top 7 QBs, pick a guy or two out of this 2nd tier that you believe in and go with it in the 6th round or later that's great, but I wouldn't say they're necessarily undervalued or should be drafted higher. Basically, there's very little dropoff from Ben to QB12, so I wouldn't be in a huge rush to grab him, even in the 6th round.

 

I agree with you on most of your RBs, especially your main 2 of Hillis and Tolbert. The 2nd year guys they are competing with for carries, especially Hardesty, have disappointed a bit so far. Love the value you get with those guys. I also like Deangelo if he continues to fall. I'm only so so on Thomas. I think he's fine if you draft him 7th-8th round or so as RB4, but I wouldn't want to count on him too much. Bush is going to get some touches and most of the RB catches. Plus, that offense looks like it could be terrible. I'd probably pass on him. I also don't like Forsett. I'm not convinced he's a better player than Leon Washington and it seems like at best he's a RBBC guy on a bad offense. Hard to see many situations in which he'd be a guy I'd ever want to start.

 

At WR, I'm with you on Manningham. He's a talented guy and should put up great numbers. A real steal where he's being drafted. I'm not with you on Boldin. He doesn't have a ton of competition for targets, but I'm not sure he's all that good anymore. He plays WR like a RB and I feel like that means he gets old more similarly to RBs as opposed to WRs who stay productive longer. He just looks like he's lost a step to me (like a 30 y/o RB) and he's still getting drafted relatively too high for my tastes.

 

Shiancoe, I don't see it. Kyle Rudolph is going to play a lot right away. I'd be pretty surprised if Visante is fantasy relevant this year.

 

I do agree with you on Jimmy Graham. People in this thread seem to think he's one of those guys who went from underrated sleeper who everybody loved which then pushed him into the overrated category. I get the argument there, but I don't see it. Colston doesn't seem right. Lance Moore and Meachem are okay, but not special talents. Brees is going to get his 4,000 yards and 30 TDs. Outside the top 5 TEs, Graham is the only guy I see who has a realistic shot at having a huge double digit TD season. I'd take him as TE6. Maybe he's not super underrated anymore, but I still think he's a good value.