**2012 Baseball talk thread**

[Cruzer 1,992]

As if the Rangers needed more talent in their offense, welcome to the show Jurickson Profar.

 

http://www.mlb.com/v...8250119957-1045

 

Kid got lazy and only hit a double in his second AB.

Texas is pretty strong as it is - but we are loaded with young kids on top of that. Thank the heavens for that bcoz it is prolly not going to end well with Hamilton after the season ends - I look for him to leave, prolly to Boston is my guess.

 

On another note - Darvish is rounding into postseason form. Looking more and more like he'll take the bump in game 1.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Just scored tickets for the 1st playoff series. Oakland has just closed the gap to 3 games, hope I get to focking use them.

[southcarolina 166]

Cody Ross still gives a f*ck.

 

 

 

Hah and Bobby V too. Prolly the biggest ovation V has gotten all season.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Holy cow what a season ending finish we have going on in the American League. My Rangers are on life support, sucking air, and about to choke away a lead like the USA Ryder Cup team. The focking ass A's - they are a major pain in the ass, all we need is 1 game of this series against them but we could also get swept........ Hats off to the Tigers - just the other day they were a couple back and out of the post season, now they are going to win the Division.... And what a battle for the East - NY and Balt. are Rocky / Apollo Creed'ing the hell out of it.

 

p.s. Cabby has to be MVP now, not even a contest. Although MIke Trout is freaking insane - a total Rangers killer.

[posty 2,296]

Holy cow what a season ending finish we have going on in the American League. My Rangers are on life support, sucking air, and about to choke away a lead like the USA Ryder Cup team. The focking ass A's - they are a major pain in the ass, all we need is 1 game of this series against them but we could also get swept........ Hats off to the Tigers - just the other day they were a couple back and out of the post season, now they are going to win the Division.... And what a battle for the East - NY and Balt. are Rocky / Apollo Creed'ing the hell out of it.

 

p.s. Cabby has to be MVP now, not even a contest. Although MIke Trout is freaking insane - a total Rangers killer.

 

This isn't a slam dunk like you think... I have no problem with Cabrera winning it, but I still think Trout will win it...

[Cruzer 1,992]

This isn't a slam dunk like you think... I have no problem with Cabrera winning it, but I still think Trout will win it...

Cabby is on the verge of capturing the Triple Crown, on a division winning team - Trout should finish 2nd, a distant 2nd.

[posty 2,296]

Cabby is on the verge of capturing the Triple Crown, on a division winning team - Trout should finish 2nd, a distant 2nd.

 

Do you realize that his only lock is in RBIs?

[Cruzer 1,992]

Do you realize that his only lock is in RBIs?

Yea, but he is also right there in the other 2. I've always had a problem with the MVP coming from a non-playoff team, even when A-Fraud did it for us, Cabby has to be it. Kind of hoping he atually does pull it off - be cool to see.

[edjr 5,567]

Do you realize average, hr and rbi are as outdated as the aura of Tiger Woods

[cbfalcon 824]

Do you realize average, hr and rbi are as outdated as the aura of Tiger Woods

 

Do you realize Trout's big argument is an awesome WAR, essentially arguing that Trout equals wins. Yet the Angels season is over because they are lacking in wins.

[posty 2,296]

Do you realize Trout's big argument is an awesome WAR, essentially arguing that Trout equals wins. Yet the Angels season is over because they are lacking in wins.

 

And yet the Angels are 88-71 and the Tigers are 86-73...

[cbfalcon 824]

And yet the Angels are 88-71 and the Tigers are 86-73...

 

Cabrera chose to play in the proper division. No different than how we are more likely to win MVP because we chose to be born in America.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Well it's pretty much a done deal - my stupid ass Rangers have focked up and lost the division to the pesky ass A's.

 

Okay, so looking at the probably scenario: Baltimore travels to Texas Friday for the play-in game Friday - winner plays NY on the road. Detroit travels to Oakland for round 1?

[cbfalcon 824]

Well it's pretty much a done deal - my stupid ass Rangers have focked up and lost the division to the pesky ass A's.

 

Okay, so looking at the probably scenario: Baltimore travels to Texas Friday for the play-in game Friday - winner plays NY on the road. Detroit travels to Oakland for round 1?

 

Obviously on a much smaller scale, I have the same feeling of dread that I had after we lost game 6 last year. The idea of being 2 games away from waking up Saturday morning and their being no more playoff baseball is shocking.

 

The only thing providing any comfort is the knowledge that Yu would be pitching in the play in game.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Obviously on a much smaller scale, I have the same feeling of dread that I had after we lost game 6 last year. The idea of being 2 games away from waking up Saturday morning and their being no more playoff baseball is shocking.

 

The only thing providing any comfort is the knowledge that Yu would be pitching in the play in game.

I've said for 2 years now that Ogando is our best all around, most talented pitcher. I know Adams is gone for the post season (least what i'm hearing) - I'd throw the Big O in there right behind Yu. Of course neither one of those guys bats and for whatever reason we are sucking ass at the plate. Harrison did his job last night - got to score more than 1 focking run against the freaking A's.

[CantTouchThis 23]

Do you realize Trout's big argument is an awesome WAR, essentially arguing that Trout equals wins. Yet the Angels season is over because they are lacking in wins.

 

I saw something in a newspaper(go figure) article today that was interesting: Even though Trout has a much higher WAR than anyone in the league, including Cabrera, Miggy actually has a higher percentage of his team's total WAR, something like 33% to 27%. So, if you want to really take WAR into account for value to a player's respective team, then Cabby has Trout beat aka Cabby has been more valuable to his team than Trout according to the WAR statistic.

 

I was trying to check this, but initial efforts to find a place where I can find total team WAR have failed. I think in that case, JV would actually have the highest in the league, since he has a higher WAR than Cabrera. That in itself makes me think maybe WAR is even more flawed than I thought, because anyone associated with the Tigers will tell you that Miguel has 100%, without a doubt, been the team's MVP this year.

 

ETA: Found it http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2012-value-batting.shtml

 

Actually, it was a bit off on each according to bWAR, which I think he probably used fWAR.

 

Detroit had the 3rd LOWEST WAR in the AL at 14.5, and Miguel has a 6.9 which adds up to a mind boggling 48% of the total. What really blows my mind is JV has a 7.4, which added to Cabby equals 14.3, meaning outside of those 2 players the Tigers have a total WAR of .2

 

The Angels had the highest WAR in the AL at 38.2. Trout's 10.7 is actually only 28% of that total.

 

So, at least according to bWAR, Miguel is MUCH, MUCH more valuable to his team, that is in the playoffs BTW.

[MedStudent 56]

With my red sox (and i pray they don't go after Hamilton) dead, I'm pulling for the A's. I always liked Billy Beane and it would be great to see them go far. I'll root for Baltimore if the A's get knocked out quick.

[MedStudent 56]

I saw something in a newspaper(go figure) article today that was interesting: Even though Trout has a much higher WAR than anyone in the league, including Cabrera, Miggy actually has a higher percentage of his team's total WAR, something like 33% to 27%. So, if you want to really take WAR into account for value to a player's respective team, then Cabby has Trout beat aka Cabby has been more valuable to his team than Trout according to the WAR statistic.

 

I was trying to check this, but initial efforts to find a place where I can find total team WAR have failed. I think in that case, JV would actually have the highest in the league, since he has a higher WAR than Cabrera. That in itself makes me think maybe WAR is even more flawed than I thought, because anyone associated with the Tigers will tell you that Miguel has 100%, without a doubt, been the team's MVP this year.

 

ETA: Found it http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2012-value-batting.shtml

 

Actually, it was a bit off on each according to bWAR, which I think he probably used fWAR.

 

Detroit had the 3rd LOWEST WAR in the AL at 14.5, and Miguel has a 6.9 which adds up to a mind boggling 48% of the total. What really blows my mind is JV has a 7.4, which added to Cabby equals 14.3, meaning outside of those 2 players the Tigers have a total WAR of .2

 

The Angels had the highest WAR in the AL at 38.2. Trout's 10.7 is actually only 28% of that total.

 

So, at least according to bWAR, Miguel is MUCH, MUCH more valuable to his team, that is in the playoffs BTW.

 

You have to question the validity of war when the team with the best WAR doesn't even make the playoffs.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

You have to question the validity of war when the team with the best WAR doesn't even make the playoffs.

You have to question the validity of WAR when Ben Zobrist leads the AL in 2009 and 2011.

 

Also, in the words of Dennis Green...

 

"If you want to crown him then crown his ass!"

 

:first:

[CantTouchThis 23]

 

Fock, I didn't think Verlander's 2011 season would get matched so quickly, as far as top individual seasons for a Detroit-based sport. Those 2 are the tops in my lifetime, and in back to back years.

 

Nuts dude, just nuts. The crazy thing is his 2011 and 2010 seasons where pretty much every bit as good. In this new pitcher-dominated post-roid era, Cabby is now on a level of his own as far as hitters go.

 

I also like how CNN's top story right after the debate was of Cabrera, and ESPNs top story was the Yankees clinching

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Fock, I didn't think Verlander's 2011 season would get matched so quickly, as far as top individual seasons for a Detroit-based sport. Those 2 are the tops in my lifetime, and in back to back years.

No love for Barry's 2000 yd season?

[braylonjetwards 0]

You have to question the validity of WAR when Ben Zobrist leads the AL in 2009 and 2011.

 

Also, in the words of Dennis Green...

 

"If you want to crown him then crown his ass!"

 

:first:

WAR is not the end all be all of value. It's function is to group players who are similar in value. Ben Zobrist may not be the best player in the AL but he is criminally underrated. Players who get on base and play good defense up the middle are very valuable. There's a reason the rays are always in contention, and it's not only their staff.

 

As for Trout there's always some margin for error, but there is literally no rational argument for Cabrera. Look at the stats, Trout is essentially doing what Braun did last year with the swap of some power for steals. The triple crown narrative is fun, but Trout has been Cabreras equal at the plate this year. Are we going to pretend Trout isn't considerably more valuable on the bases and in the field? He's hit as well as Miggy while being the best base runner in baseball and playing elite D at a premium position. Trout was the best player in baseball this year, and it wasn't close.

[cbfalcon 824]

When I read that The Angels had the highest team WAR, the stat lost a lot of meaning to me. It seems to prove to me that the stat is somewhat less important than everyone claims.

[cbfalcon 824]

When I read that The Angels had the highest team WAR, the stat lost a lot of meaning to me. It seems to prove to me that the stat is somewhat less important than everyone claims.

 

7 of the best 10 WAR teams made the playoffs, so the stat isn't useless.

 

BUT:

1. Angels

2. Brewers

26. Orioles

 

26? The stat isn't the be all end all. Triple Crown wins this debate.

[braylonjetwards 0]

7 of the best 10 WAR teams made the playoffs, so the stat isn't useless.

 

BUT:

1. Angels

2. Brewers

26. Orioles

 

26? The stat isn't the be all end all. Triple Crown wins this debate.

The problem with analyzing the orioles is its impossible to quantify what their bullpen has been worth. Overall they have a good but not exceptional relief staff. In 1 run games the bullpen basically becomes Craig Kimbrel. Their record in 1 run games is absurd and it's the reason they are in the wild card game. While the orioles are certainly underrated by WAR, a lot of fluky unsustainable events took place, and that's why there is such a huge discrepancy between their WAR and their record.

[Sho Nuff 719]

So much for the huge dropoff in Braun's stats.

 

Do the voters forget the test and give him the MVP...or do they go Posey?

[braylonjetwards 0]

So much for the huge dropoff in Braun's stats.

 

Do the voters forget the test and give him the MVP...or do they go Posey?

Posey has been sensational this year. Braun has been as good but Posey is deserving of the award. That's all the excuse they need to avoid voting for Brain.

[CantTouchThis 23]

No love for Barry's 2000 yd season?

 

Plus that year, those are the 3 top seasons that I can really recall. I know some Wings had great years, but those 3 really stand out to me.

[Stewburtx8 67]

When I read that The Angels had the highest team WAR, the stat lost a lot of meaning to me. It seems to prove to me that the stat is somewhat less important than everyone claims.

 

 

Well I believe the Angels did have the 2nd best record in baseball since Trout arrived. He makes up almost 30% of their team WAR. They were a really good team other than their really bad April (6-14). They even finished with a better record than the Tigers this year, which makes the "playoffs" argument for Miggy kind of pointless to me. Detroit is rewarded for playing in a bad division.

 

Another good article if you don't like WAR... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trout-versus-cabrera-offense-only-context-included/

[Cruzer 1,992]

My Rangers are gutless chokers - just assume we lose today and spare us the agony of going thru another series. I appreciate and love them for the past 2 years they have given us - but it's time to make some changes. Starting with Josh - time to go buddy, certainly for the price you are going to demand. Nellie Cruz, you are on the list too - don't get too comfortable.

 

 

[WahooJim 4]

My Rangers are gutless chokers - just assume we lose today and spare us the agony of going thru another series. I appreciate and love them for the past 2 years they have given us - but it's time to make some changes. Starting with Josh - time to go buddy, certainly for the price you are going to demand. Nellie Cruz, you are on the list too - don't get too comfortable.

 

Too depressed to chime in earlier. I am in the same place you are. Please lose gracefully tonight so I can turn the page and start bowhunting/watching football.

[cbfalcon 824]

Too depressed to chime in earlier. I am in the same place you are. Please lose gracefully tonight so I can turn the page and start bowhunting/watching football.

 

Nope. Rangers got this because it's at home. And the pitching matchup is just too sweet. That'll make the difference.

 

And then we get 2 at home against the Yankees. I'm not going to lie and claim I am glad we are in this spot. But even had we won on Wednesday, we were limping in and would have probably lost games 1 and 2 on the road against a team that doesn't get us as excited as the Yankees. But we have actually stumbled into a situation that gives us an opportunity to right the ship and get it going.

 

I'm either irrationally confident like a genius, or I'm a dumbass simply setting myself up for heartbreak. But we got this.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Nope. Rangers got this because it's at home. And the pitching matchup is just too sweet. That'll make the difference. And then we get 2 at home against the Yankees. I'm not going to lie and claim I am glad we are in this sport. But even had we won on Wednesday, we were limping in and would have probably lost games 1 and 2 on the road against a team that doesn't get us as excited as the Yankees. But we have actually stumbled into a situation that gives us an opportunity to right the ship and get it going. I'm either irrationally confident like a genius, or I'm a dumbass simply setting myself up for heartbreak. But we got this.

Of all the possible playoff scenarios, the one we find ourselves in is actually pretty damn good. Assuming we can win 2nite - I think we set up just about as good, or better, than we would have had we won the division. My real complaint and worry is just how we lost. We looked lost, tired, and sloppy - not a way you want to look heading into the tournament.

[shotsup 832]

With my red sox (and i pray they don't go after Hamilton) dead, I'm pulling for the A's. I always liked Billy Beane and it would be great to see them go far. I'll root for Baltimore if the A's get knocked out quick.

 

This Sox fan rooting for Baltimore

[cbfalcon 824]

Of all the possibly playoff scenarios, the one we find ourselves in is actually pretty damn good. Assuming we can win 2nite - I think we set up just about as good, or better, than we would have had we won the division. My real complaint and worry is just how we lost. We looked lost, tired, and sloppy - not a way you want to look heading into the tournament.

 

Oh yeah, everything bolded is true. And that may be all that natters.

 

But given that we look lost, tired, and sloppy, this is the best case scenario. A home game that favors us by a ridiculous amount on paper. And if we can get that, 2 home games that against a team that should get the adrenaline going to such a point that energy and focus shouldn't be an issue.

 

Or I'm going to be drunk and depressed in 8 hours.

[WahooJim 4]

Oh yeah, everything bolded is true. And that may be all that natters.

 

But given that we look lost, tired, and sloppy, this is the best case scenario. A home game that favors us by a ridiculous amount on paper. And if we can get that, 2 home games that against a team that should get the adrenaline going to such a point that energy and focus shouldn't be an issue.

 

Or I'm going to be drunk and depressed in 8 hours.

 

I've already worked through all the depression, no downside left, whether we win 0 more games or 12. I just don't see how we can advance with Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz and Soto all basically worthless or negative value (can they really go 0-12 with 6 K's with RISP again?) Worse, Murphy, Young, Moreland and Andrus have all cooled off a bit. Basically, it's Beltre, Napoli and Gentry (if he gets any AB) against our opponent. Why does every rookie/5th starter in the AL look like Sandy Koufax against us? They must be really tired. Thanks Josh, it's been a (mostly) good few years. I hope your vast future wealth brings you happiness.

 

No kidding- I would start Profar at 2nd tonight.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Texas better jump on Saunders and the Orioles tonight, otherwise I think the Orioles advantages in the bullpen and at manager/coaching could spell the end of Texas.

[Cruzer 1,992]

No kidding- I would start Profar at 2nd tonight.

My line up 2nite would be:

 

C. Gentry - cf

E. Andrus - ss

J. Hamilton - lf

A. Beltre - 3rd

M. Napoli - c

M. Young - 1st

N. Cruz - rf

I. Kinsler - dh

J. Profar - 2nd

[Stewburtx8 67]

My line up 2nite would be:

 

C. Gentry - cf

E. Andrus - ss

J. Hamilton - lf

A. Beltre - 3rd

M. Napoli - c

M. Young - 1st

N. Cruz - rf

I. Kinsler - dh

J. Profar - 2nd

 

 

I know Kinsler has been struggling a little, but isn't he hitting like .350 against lefties this year? Career 10 for 24 against Saunders with 2 doubles and 4 homers. I don't think I'd be moving him to 8th in the lineup.

 

Cruz is hitting .309 against lefties (.244 against righties). Career 6 for 20 with 2 homers off Saunders. Suprisingly, Mike Napoli has been terrible against lefties this year.

 

I think I'd stick with the top 5 of Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz in this matchup. Michael Young is kind of the hole in the lineup, but Washington continues to run him out there. Although he hits lefties well too.

 

This matchup SHOULD setup REALLY well for Texas the way they hit lefties facing a average lefty in Saunders.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

O's really blew a golden opportunity...can you imagine Texas, fresh off of a back-breaking sweep to Oakland having to fly cross-country to play in a raucous Camden Yards, hosting it's first playoff game in over a decade?