Realistic outlook on Chris Johnson

[SuperSteelers 1]

I see that he is rated as a top 10 player. I haven't really been high on him over the last few seasons, and it never actually crossed my mind to target him in the first round. That said, what are people expecting from him? He will be available for the first time in three seasons as he was kept. Thoughts? Predictions?

[DrG 94]

I think he's a speed guy who's best days are behind him but he is also one of the few bell cows

[soopacee 0]

well i am a Titans homer to warn you....but

 

 

Cj was a holdout last year, and also coming into a new offense......yes, o-line didnt play aswell as they could, but these were big factors into his play.....he even admitted his conditioning was far from stellar in the offseason while holding out

 

 

 

fast forward.....he has been at camp, early....been working out tough, and had time to learn the playbook

 

 

 

with his talent, and no one here to really steal carries, i dont see why he shouldnt be drafted in the 1st....anything after that is a steal

 

 

 

i would really bump him up if Locker starts.....a mobile qb opens up alot more holes for RB's

[Maroon Bells 18]

I think Johnson is a real intriguing choice this year just based on his value. Under normal circumstances his talent and potential lies in the top 2 or 3 backs, but because of one bad year (the reasons for which you can point to legitimate factors that no longer exist), you'll probably be able to draft him 6 to 10 backs in. I'm not saying he's going to be CJ2K again, but I like his value.

[PATSSOX 22]

CJ will be a top 5 RB this year

 

from CBS:

 

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN

News: If you're looking for good news on Titans running back Chris Johnson then NFL.com gave you a reason for hope. According to a report, Titans general manager Ruston Webster said Johnson has been "the CJ of old." That's great to hear after Johnson struggled in 2011 following a lengthy holdout.

 

Analysis: So far all the reports out of Tennessee have been positive about Johnson, and we hope he's ready for a rebound year. Johnson has the chance to return as a No. 1 Fantasy running back. As long as he continues to get rave reviews, plan on drafting Johnson anywhere from No. 5 or 6 overall to the end of Round 1 in most formats. If he falls to Round 2 then consider it a steal because Johnson likely will not disappoint you for two years in a row.

 

Not sure who wrote this for CBS but what draft would he fall to 2nd round? If he falls to the end of first then it would be a steal.

 

rotoworld:

 

Titans GM Ruston Webster is the latest to suggest that Chris Johnson is back to his "old self" this season.

"CJ, it's his old self," Webster opined. Johnson admits he wasn't "really, really myself" even as his yards per carry picked up late last season, saying it takes "toward the end of camp" to get into football shape. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport observed that Johnson's "cuts were sharp, the spring is back and teammates have noticed." Johnson also "smiled broadly" when discussing his offensive line, a positive sign after he threw that struggling group under the bus last year. Aug 4 - 7:28 PM

[murf74 461]

He reminds me of Willie parker give him a hole he can take it the distance....without a hole he will dance and get caught for a loss....not real good vision. I am avoiding him again this year

[PATSSOX 22]

He reminds me of Willie parker give him a hole he can take it the distance....without a hole he will dance and get caught for a loss....not real good vision. I am avoiding him again this year

 

Hell even last year he was still the #9 scoring RB in PPR and #15 in standard league. He has never had less than 43 catches in a year. Think the only thing you can debate is how high you should take him? After the first 4 picks Foster, McCoy, Rice and more than likely Rodgers the water becomes a little muddy.

 

I have him #5 on my board. Who you going to take at #5?

 

Johnson's Stats

 

Year	Team	G	GS	Att	Yd	Avg	Lg	TD	Recpt	Yd	Avg	Lg	TD
2011	TEN	16	16	262	1047	4.0	48	4	57	418	7.3	34	0
2010	TEN	16	16	316	1364	4.3	76	11	44	245	5.6	25	1
2009	TEN	16	16	358	2006	5.6	91	14	50	503	10.1	69	2
2008	TEN	15	14	251	1228	4.9	66	9	43	260	6.0	25	1
3-year Average	
TEN	16	16	312	1472	4.7	72	10	50	389	7.8	43	1

[worm 34]

I've heard Amano played like crap at C last season, so Titan homers, with him out for the year (tricep) is that a good thing, or is the 2nd string C that much worse? That could have a big impact on CJ's performance.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I got focked over by CJ last year, BUT I would probably take him again this year. Maybe I'm just a masochist but I think there is reason to expect a much better year from him.

 

First, we know that he missed what limited off-season there was because of his contract issue. So he came in totally unprepared, which obviously could explain his very slow start.

 

Second, CJ was looking pretty good over the second half of last season. He totally murdered you in the first half if you owned him, so it was too little too late at that point. BUT why couldn't that improvement carry over into this year? Especially with a full off-season training program that CJ has apparently been dedicating himself to?

 

And for those of you who say he's done, he's still only 26 years old (turns 27 during the season).

[murf74 461]

1tth

Hell even last year he was still the #9 scoring RB in PPR and #15 in standard league. He has never had less than 43 catches in a year. Think the only thing you can debate is how high you should take him? After the first 4 picks Foster, McCoy, Rice and more than likely Rodgers the water becomes a little muddy. Ii

 

I have him #5 on my board. Who you going to take at #5?

 

Johnson's Stats

 

Year	Team	G	GS	Att	Yd	Avg	Lg	TD	Recpt	Yd	Avg	Lg	TD
2011	TEN	16	16	262	1047	4.0	48	4	57	418	7.3	34	0
2010	TEN	16	16	316	1364	4.3	76	11	44	245	5.6	25	1
2009	TEN	16	16	358	2006	5.6	91	14	50	503	10.1	69	2
2008	TEN	15	14	251	1228	4.9	66	9	43	260	6.0	25	1
3-year Average	
TEN	16	16	312	1472	4.7	72	10	50	389	7.8	43	1

 

So he was 15th in RB scoring last year and you ask who I would take 5th OVERALL?

 

OK I will assume you are asking a serious question and answer is NOT the 15th overall RB in 2012....I'll take Megaton and be happy about it.

 

FYI 15th best RB means average if you consider 32 NFL teams.

[Cstriker 2]

He lost a step being a speed guy. How many long runs did he break last year. Bad O-line play or not, Players like Forte, Matthews routinely got it done. Not worth at his adp. Titans got screwed out of a big contract.

[Oblong_Ball 1]

Johnson's Stats

 

Year	Team	G	GS	Att	Yd	Avg	Lg	TD	Recpt	Yd	Avg	Lg	TD
2011	TEN	16	16	262	1047	4.0	48	4	57	418	7.3	34	0
2010	TEN	16	16	316	1364	4.3	76	11	44	245	5.6	25	1
2009	TEN	16	16	358	2006	5.6	91	14	50	503	10.1	69	2
2008	TEN	15	14	251	1228	4.9	66	9	43	260	6.0	25	1
3-year Average	
TEN	16	16	312	1472	4.7	72	10	50	389	7.8	43	1

Umm, even in his down year he totaled almost 1500 yards. The TD's weren't there but as was mentioned in previous posts. It was a holdout year, he was coming into a new offense, non-stellar O-line, and he didn't participate in any preseason conditioning or team practices. Every single one of those negatives is gone and he's been tearing up OTA's and preseason workouts. He might have been the 15th (give or take) ranked HB from last season, but let's take a look at who was ahead of him and who definitely won't be this season: Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, Michael Bush, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, and maybe even MJD because of his holdout. 15-8 = 7. I think realistically, he could easily be in the top 3. The only HB's I'd take over him are Ray Rice, Arian Foster, and LeSean McCoy.

[PATSSOX 22]

1tth

 

So he was 15th in RB scoring last year and you ask who I would take 5th OVERALL?

 

OK I will assume you are asking a serious question and answer is NOT the 15th overall RB in 2012....I'll take Megaton and be happy about it.

 

FYI 15th best RB means average if you consider 32 NFL teams.

 

 

It was a BAD year and he was still the 9th and 15th ranked RB last year that was my point. and he held out which is never good.

 

But go ahead and take WR at #5 thats all good. And again my point was after #4 there really is no clear pick

[murf74 461]

It was a BAD year and he was still the 9th and 15th ranked RB last year that was my point. and he held out which is never good.

 

But go ahead and take WR at #5 thats all good. And again my point was after #4 there really is no clear pick

 

I think megaton is the no brained at 5 its 6th pick that is a grab bag and glad I don't draft there

[MicktheGreat 1]

I've heard Amano played like crap at C last season, so Titan homers, with him out for the year (tricep) is that a good thing, or is the 2nd string C that much worse? That could have a big impact on CJ's performance.

Yes...Amano was really bad last season -- though, to be totally fair, he wasn't the only problem on the interior-OL, as Leroy Harris was wildly inconsistent and Jake Scott was clearly over-the-hill and horrible. Amano was a pretty decent OG for the Titans a few seasons ago; however, we overpaid to re-sign him and he never quite worked out as a replacement for Kevin Mawae. Amano is really a backup quality OG in the NFL -- the type of player who can play OK for a few games each season but not someone that you want starting week-in-and-week-out. All that said, you never like to see a guy get hurt and this probably marks the end of his career with the Titans.

 

From a team perspective, I think this actually helps the Titans' starting OL, and it certainly makes the coaches' decision easier. The candidates for the starting C job are now Kevin Matthews, Fernando Velasco, and William Vlachos. Matthews has a good pedigree and his dad is the OL coach, which could help him win the job (i.e. nepotism). Velasco has played well when given the chance, and he offers some nice versatility. Vlachos is a rookie and lacks great physical tools but gets by on technique/smarts. Really...I think it comes down to Matthews vs. Velasco for the starting gig. In my opinion, Velasco is the superior player of the three; but I fully expect Matthews to "win" the job -- partially because of the family connection and partially because the Titans value Velasco's role off-the-bench and his ability to play both C and OG in the event of injury. I think all three make the 53-man roster, although Vlachos probably won't dress out for the games.

 

In terms of CJ, I think Matthews or Velasco would probably be an improvement over Amano.

 

[worm 34]

Good stuff. Thanks, Mick.

[LSUtiger 9]

I'm fairly high on CJ2K this year but that's primarily attributable to two reasons: (1) I didn't get burned by owning him last season; and (2) after Foster, Rice and McCoy, there is really just a grab bag of crap out there and CJ seems more appealing than an aging/overworked MJD, an injury prone Mathews, or Forte recovering from an ACL (with Bush to vulture TDs).

 

Personally, I have CJ and Mathews right after the "big" 3. I would lean toward CJ because he's done it before, and done it big time. Mathews could blow up this year, but he's so fragile I can't trust him as my RB1.

[mgs316 14]

My view is, who else are you going to take? Murray? No. Richardson? Not in that division. Lynch? Suspension? Forte? Never scores and Bush. Once you get past the first tier, pick your poison, they all have downside.

 

CJ, only RB in town, homerun hitter, only RB in town, past performance, only RB in town. Same reason I took Lynch last year, but obviously Lynch was a much better value, but still.

[PATSSOX 22]

I think megaton is the no brained at 5 its 6th pick that is a grab bag and glad I don't draft there

 

I wouldnt be too thrilled taking Calvin at #5 though. But he probably is the safest pick there beside either Brady or Brees. But for me its after the first 4 where it gets sketchy. Id take Chris Johnson over Mathews and MJD. MJD might be out for awhile.

 

Chris Johnson 1403 yards, 10 TD, 48 catches, 487 yards, 3 TDs

[waxg 3]

Would you rather have CJ at $29 or Darren McFadden at $21 in a league where you can keep players for unlimited years at plus $5 per year? I have McF and have been offered CJ.

[Cara 0]

He lost a step being a speed guy. How many long runs did he break last year. Bad O-line play or not, Players like Forte, Matthews routinely got it done. Not worth at his adp. Titans got screwed out of a big contract.

 

 

I like playing in leagues with people like this. lol He held out of camp, didn't train (he stated this very openly) and played behind an offensive line with serious interior issues. Consider the Titans have an exciting new rookie WR, Britt (may or may not be ready) and Washington, along with Cook Jr coming into his own, Hutch being added to the interior of the line and possibly Locker starting at QB. What you have the ingredients for is a dynamic offense.

 

His first half of the season was horrid. He didn't know the new playbook and looked horribly out of shape. The end of the season was much different. He finished with respectable numbers from week 9 on. Not great, but not as bad as the first part of the season. Look at what hold outs did to other RB's throughout history. They've almost always bounced back to have big years the following season. Look at Steven Jackson in 2008. He had barely over 1,000 yards and only 40 receptions. Sound familiar? The following season he was in shape and had over 1,400 yards rushing and 50 receptions. He had over 1,700 yards in 2009 and had more carries on his legs with an offense that had no weapons. CJ can easily duplicate this.

 

 

Look at his schedule for 2012;

 

Patriots: Weak defense. CJ should see many receptions out of the backfield in this one.

Chargers: So far this schedule isn't scaring me. They have a weak defensive line and the defense is average.

Lions: Improving defense, but I suspect the screen pass will be utilized frequently. Toughest game so far.

Texans: Missing two starters from last season. Not sure how "great" their defense will be. Good, but not the #4 overall run defense they were last season.

Vikings: The Williams wall has crumbled. So has their hope of stopping CJ.

Steelers: Could be another tough matchup as they are for most RB's, although only #8 against the run in 2011.

Bills: Is anyone else looking forward to this matchup as a CJ owner?

Colts: Two sweet matchups in a row.

 

Skipping to playoffs:

Week 14 - Colts. Maybe the best matchup of any RB in the first week of the playoffs.

Week 15 - Jets. Ditto. They can't stop the run. Revis Island can be bypassed. Top 3 RB matchup AT HOME.

Week 16 - Green Bay. Middle of the pack run defense. Tougher game. Maybe. In Lambeau, so will be run first game plan, or so you would think. Green Bay finished 14th against the run last season.

 

His playoff matchups are good. Not the best, but much better than middle of the pack. There is no reason to think he can't be a top 5 PPR RB in 2012, at least in my mind. He is a very prideful man. His pride was hurt last season and I expect him to bounce back in a huge way.

[ralphster 274]

There is no reason to think he can't be a top 5 PPR RB in 2012, at least in my mind. He is a very prideful man. His pride was hurt last season and I expect him to bounce back in a huge way.

 

I took him round one pick 6 last year. Those throwing around his final numbers for the season last year forget that he was SO bad the first 8 weeks that many who spent a first round pick on him did not make the playoffs, so by the time he tried to reclaim his 'pride' his performances didn't matter.

 

Where was his pride when he came in to camp an out of shape wreck? Where was his pride when he ran to the ground or out of bounds on nearly every play to avoid contact? Where was his pride when he quit on his team last year? The coaches knew it, his team knew it, the fans knew it. Bogus - doubly so after getting paid. Silva wrote a great article on CJ that I read on roto a while back - I highly encourage anyone thinking of drafting CJ to look it up.

 

There's never been a question about CJ's talent or speed. His heart is the question. His oline is another. If Hass loses out to Locker and they struggle early which version will you get - CJ2K or CJ2YPC?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

He lost a step being a speed guy. How many long runs did he break last year. Bad O-line play or not, Players like Forte, Matthews routinely got it done. Not worth at his adp. Titans got screwed out of a big contract.

Tied for 3rd overall in 2011 with 11 runs 20+.

 

I'm not sure I understand the disdain for the guy, other than the fact that I've never owned him. Last year could have been an outlier.

[soopacee 0]

Yes...Amano was really bad last season -- though, to be totally fair, he wasn't the only problem on the interior-OL, as Leroy Harris was wildly inconsistent and Jake Scott was clearly over-the-hill and horrible. Amano was a pretty decent OG for the Titans a few seasons ago; however, we overpaid to re-sign him and he never quite worked out as a replacement for Kevin Mawae. Amano is really a backup quality OG in the NFL -- the type of player who can play OK for a few games each season but not someone that you want starting week-in-and-week-out. All that said, you never like to see a guy get hurt and this probably marks the end of his career with the Titans.

 

From a team perspective, I think this actually helps the Titans' starting OL, and it certainly makes the coaches' decision easier. The candidates for the starting C job are now Kevin Matthews, Fernando Velasco, and William Vlachos. Matthews has a good pedigree and his dad is the OL coach, which could help him win the job (i.e. nepotism). Velasco has played well when given the chance, and he offers some nice versatility. Vlachos is a rookie and lacks great physical tools but gets by on technique/smarts. Really...I think it comes down to Matthews vs. Velasco for the starting gig. In my opinion, Velasco is the superior player of the three; but I fully expect Matthews to "win" the job -- partially because of the family connection and partially because the Titans value Velasco's role off-the-bench and his ability to play both C and OG in the event of injury. I think all three make the 53-man roster, although Vlachos probably won't dress out for the games.

 

In terms of CJ, I think Matthews or Velasco would probably be an improvement over Amano.

 

 

 

 

 

i agree with everything stated here

[We Tigers 71]

If Locker starts, as appears likely, count me in. Locker is mobile, and CJ plus a QB who isn't a statue on the wrong side of 35 can do some serious damage.

 

That said, it doesn't look like he's available at much of a discount--but if folks in your league leap on QBs and Calvin early, he's got the look of a very valuable late 1st round pick.

[soopacee 0]

i draft #7 in my 12 teamer......i am BANKING on him being available at that pick.....but my draft always has craziness

 

 

i got ray rice last year at 10

[Cara 0]

I took him round one pick 6 last year. Those throwing around his final numbers for the season last year forget that he was SO bad the first 8 weeks that many who spent a first round pick on him did not make the playoffs, so by the time he tried to reclaim his 'pride' his performances didn't matter.

 

Where was his pride when he came in to camp an out of shape wreck? Where was his pride when he ran to the ground or out of bounds on nearly every play to avoid contact? Where was his pride when he quit on his team last year? The coaches knew it, his team knew it, the fans knew it. Bogus - doubly so after getting paid. Silva wrote a great article on CJ that I read on roto a while back - I highly encourage anyone thinking of drafting CJ to look it up.

 

There's never been a question about CJ's talent or speed. His heart is the question. His oline is another. If Hass loses out to Locker and they struggle early which version will you get - CJ2K or CJ2YPC?

 

 

His heart? I'm sorry, I strongly disagree with this. His heart wasn't in question when he kept racking up yardage against 9 man fronts on his way to a 2,000 yard season. His heart wasn't in question once prior to his holdout.... Who questioned his heart? When? Coach Fisher, who is now coaching our St. Louis Rams, talks about CJ non-stop. He talked about his practice habits as an example to our rookie, Isaih Pead. Fisher certainly isn't questioning his work habits or heart....

 

As for running out of bounds "nearly every play". I would have to say you read that somewhere and didn't watch the games. You can't run out of bounds when you are hit in the backfield on 1/3 of your plays because your offensive line hasn't learned to run block yet. I did't watch all his games, as I doubt anyone outside of TN did, but the games I did see him in he wasn't running for the sidelines on every play. That comment was absurd.

 

Let's discuss your "out of shape wreck" comment as well. He most certainly came to camp out of shape as did half the NFL. There was a lockout... Many players have flatly stated they were out of shape. The disadvantage he had was missing the practice time and the new playbook. This had nothing to do with his "heart" or pride.

 

Prior to last season, the first 8 games, his heart has never been questioned. Coach Fisher called him the most talented running back he's ever coached. Oh yeah, didn't he have another guy, Eddie something or other that was pretty darn good?

 

I understand people being upset that were burned last year. Doesn't this happen every year though? If I refused to draft every player that had burned me at one time or another, I wouldn't be able to play the game anymore. The player that ALWAYS burned me was Deuce McAllister. I seemed to only draft him in his injury laden years. I drafted him, then he got injured and I swore I wouldn't draft him again. The next season he put up good numbers, so I decided to take another chance on him. I got burned again. This cycle went on until he retired. Sometimes I think he was only faking injuries to ruin my Sunday.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

5.6

4.3

4.0

 

That's average yards per carry the past 3 years. There's a trend and these trends simply don't reverse itself. I say pass.

[crowes 1]

5.6

4.3

4.0

 

That's average yards per carry the past 3 years. There's a trend and these trends simply don't reverse itself. I say pass.

 

 

3.15?

[vegassandwich227 0]

Hell even last year he was still the #9 scoring RB in PPR and #15 in standard league. He has never had less than 43 catches in a year. Think the only thing you can debate is how high you should take him? After the first 4 picks Foster, McCoy, Rice and more than likely Rodgers the water becomes a little muddy.

 

I have him #5 on my board. Who you going to take at #5?

 

Johnson's Stats

 

Year	Team	G	GS	Att	Yd	Avg	Lg	TD	Recpt	Yd	Avg	Lg	TD
2011	TEN	16	16	262	1047	4.0	48	4	57	418	7.3	34	0
2010	TEN	16	16	316	1364	4.3	76	11	44	245	5.6	25	1
2009	TEN	16	16	358	2006	5.6	91	14	50	503	10.1	69	2
2008	TEN	15	14	251	1228	4.9	66	9	43	260	6.0	25	1
3-year Average	
TEN	16	16	312	1472	4.7	72	10	50	389	7.8	43	1

 

To me (a bitter person who took him #5 overall last year), it all depends which year you think is the outlier: 2011 or 2009? Both were abnormal for him, but his 2009 season was more outlandish than 2011 (and now 3yrs ago). If you take out 2009, he averages 1520yds and 8.7TDs. That's 204pts (non-ppr). That's solid, but anything but a #5 overall pick...also, since I took him #5 overall last year, after the year he had in 2011, it just seems wrong to rank him that high again. If I have a 5-8 pick, I'll gladly take Megatron, Brady, Brees over him...I also have Mathews, Murray, and MJD expected to score more points than CJ this year...but, I'd still consider taking CJ over Mathews simply because of Mathews' gimpiness...

[PATSSOX 22]

To me (a bitter person who took him #5 overall last year), it all depends which year you think is the outlier: 2011 or 2009? Both were abnormal for him, but his 2009 season was more outlandish than 2011 (and now 3yrs ago). If you take out 2009, he averages 1520yds and 8.7TDs. That's 204pts (non-ppr). That's solid, but anything but a #5 overall pick...also, since I took him #5 overall last year, after the year he had in 2011, it just seems wrong to rank him that high again. If I have a 5-8 pick, I'll gladly take Megatron, Brady, Brees over him...I also have Mathews, Murray, and MJD expected to score more points than CJ this year...but, I'd still consider taking CJ over Mathews simply because of Mathews' gimpiness...

 

If you took a RB in top 5 picks would you be happy if he finished the season in the top 5 of RBs? I know i would be. 204 pts would have been #5 last year in standard leagues.

 

Rank	Player				        RuYd	RuTD	Recpt	ReYd	ReTD	FPTS
1	Rice, Ray RB BAL 			1364	12	76	704	3	284
2	McCoy, LeSean RB PHI 		        1309	17	48	315	3	264
3	Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 		1606	8	43	374	3	256
4	Foster, Arian RB HOU 		        1224	10	53	617	2	233
5	Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA 		        1204	12	28	212	1	201
6	Turner, Michael RB ATL 		        1340	11	17	168	0	197
7	Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 		973	12	18	139	1	173
8	Bush, Michael RB CHI 		        977	7	37	418	1	171
9	Mathews, Ryan RB SD 		        1091	6	50	455	0	170
10	Sproles, Darren RB NO		        603	2	86	710	7	169
11	Jackson, Steven RB STL 		        1145	5	42	333	1	166
12	Gore, Frank RB SF 			1211	8	17	114	0	162
13	Bush, Reggie RB MIA 		        1086	6	43	296	1	159
14	Wells, Beanie RB ARI 		        1047	10	10	52	0	155
15	Forte, Matt RB CHI 			997	3	52	490	1	153
16	Jackson, Fred RB BUF 		        934	6	39	442	0	153
17	Johnson, Chris RB TEN 		        1047	4	57	418	0	153
18	Greene, Shonn RB NYJ 		        1054	6	30	211	0	147
19	Mendenhall, Rashard RB PIT 		928	9	18	154	0	144
20	Bradshaw, Ahmad RB NYG 		        659	9	34	267	2	143
21	McGahee, Willis RB DEN 		        1199	4	12	51	1	139
22	Tolbert, Mike RB CAR		        490	8	54	433	2	135
23	Benson, Cedric RB CIN 		        1067	6	15	82	0	134
24	Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN 		667	11	9	159	0	132
25	Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR 		761	4	47	413	1	131
26	Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR		836	7	16	135	0	124
27	Thomas, Pierre RB NO 		        562	5	50	425	1	117
28	Tate, Ben RB HOU 			942	4	13	98	0	107
29	Jacobs, Brandon RB SF 		        571	7	15	128	1	105
30	Murray, DeMarco RB DAL 		        895	2	26	183	0	104
31	Spiller, C.J. RB BUF 			561	4	39	269	2	103
32	Helu, Roy RB WAS 			640	2	49	379	1	101
33	Blount, LeGarrette RB TB 		781	5	15	148	0	100

[Boilermaker04 11]

RB ranks

 

2007

LT2 - #1

 

2008

LT2 - #7

D. Williams - #1

 

2009

LT2 - #19

D. Williams - #14

CJ2K - #1

 

2010

LT2 - #18

D Williams - Injured

CJ2K - #6

Foster - #1

 

2011

LT2 - #39

D. Williams - #26

CJ2K - #16

Foster - #4

Rice - #1

 

Yes, these situations drastically changed from year to year, but the trend is still quite noticeable.

 

I don't think 2009 will ever happen for CJ again, and somewhere between a horrid 2011 and good 2010 is where he'll finish 2012.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

5.6

4.3

4.0

 

That's average yards per carry the past 3 years. There's a trend and these trends simply don't reverse itself. I say pass.

 

What? Look at some of the top backs last year. Their YPC the past few years has fluctuated. Marshawn Lynch was trending down then jumped almost a ypc last year. Foster went from 5.0 ypc in 2010 to 4.4 last year, should be be leery of a trend? Ray Rice dropped over a ypc from 2009 to 2010.

 

I can understand it if a guy has a ton of wear and tear on him, but Johnson is only 4 years in and is only 26 years old. I believe last year had a lot to do with the holdout and the lockout. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here and firmly believe he will be above 4.0 ypc this year.

[vegassandwich227 0]

If you took a RB in top 5 picks would you be happy if he finished the season in the top 5 of RBs? I know i would be. 204 pts would have been #5 last year in standard leagues.

 

Rank	Player				        RuYd	RuTD	Recpt	ReYd	ReTD	FPTS
1	Rice, Ray RB BAL 			1364	12	76	704	3	284
2	McCoy, LeSean RB PHI 		        1309	17	48	315	3	264
3	Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 		1606	8	43	374	3	256
4	Foster, Arian RB HOU 		        1224	10	53	617	2	233
5	Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA 		        1204	12	28	212	1	201
6	Turner, Michael RB ATL 		        1340	11	17	168	0	197
7	Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 		973	12	18	139	1	173
8	Bush, Michael RB CHI 		        977	7	37	418	1	171
9	Mathews, Ryan RB SD 		        1091	6	50	455	0	170
10	Sproles, Darren RB NO		        603	2	86	710	7	169
11	Jackson, Steven RB STL 		        1145	5	42	333	1	166
12	Gore, Frank RB SF 			1211	8	17	114	0	162
13	Bush, Reggie RB MIA 		        1086	6	43	296	1	159
14	Wells, Beanie RB ARI 		        1047	10	10	52	0	155
15	Forte, Matt RB CHI 			997	3	52	490	1	153
16	Jackson, Fred RB BUF 		        934	6	39	442	0	153
17	Johnson, Chris RB TEN 		        1047	4	57	418	0	153
18	Greene, Shonn RB NYJ 		        1054	6	30	211	0	147
19	Mendenhall, Rashard RB PIT 		928	9	18	154	0	144
20	Bradshaw, Ahmad RB NYG 		        659	9	34	267	2	143
21	McGahee, Willis RB DEN 		        1199	4	12	51	1	139
22	Tolbert, Mike RB CAR		        490	8	54	433	2	135
23	Benson, Cedric RB CIN 		        1067	6	15	82	0	134
24	Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN 		667	11	9	159	0	132
25	Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR 		761	4	47	413	1	131
26	Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR		836	7	16	135	0	124
27	Thomas, Pierre RB NO 		        562	5	50	425	1	117
28	Tate, Ben RB HOU 			942	4	13	98	0	107
29	Jacobs, Brandon RB SF 		        571	7	15	128	1	105
30	Murray, DeMarco RB DAL 		        895	2	26	183	0	104
31	Spiller, C.J. RB BUF 			561	4	39	269	2	103
32	Helu, Roy RB WAS 			640	2	49	379	1	101
33	Blount, LeGarrette RB TB 		781	5	15	148	0	100

 

First off, if he was #5RB because he scored 230+pts, yeah I'd be happy. If he's #5 because he only puts up 200, I'd be disappointed.

Second, not sure what the formula is in the table above, but the fantasy pts (for standard non-ppr) look low. (or maybe my understanding of standard league isn't same as yours).

Third, to only look at final position rank by total pts can be a bit misleading to me. It ignores injuries. Last year, combinations like ADP/Gerhart and DMC/Bush and Forte/whoever you replace him with and Fred Jax/Spiller would have put up over 200pts by season's end...Given that, and given that the table above looks off, a 200pt RB would have finished more like 11th or 12th overall, not 5th...which is HUGELY disappointing if you take him 5-7 overall, especially with the year some QBs/Megatron had

[ralphster 274]

rebuttal

 

It's clear we disagree on Chris Johnson this year. You see a huge talent with breakout potential. I see a huge talent that lost heart and quit on his team last year. You'll draft him if you can, and I won't. Read that Silva article if you can find it - good stuff.

 

We'll both be drafting Wright though.

[PATSSOX 22]

First off, if he was #5RB because he scored 230+pts, yeah I'd be happy. If he's #5 because he only puts up 200, I'd be disappointed.

Second, not sure what the formula is in the table above, but the fantasy pts (for standard non-ppr) look low. (or maybe my understanding of standard league isn't same as yours).

Third, to only look at final position rank by total pts can be a bit misleading to me. It ignores injuries. Last year, combinations like ADP/Gerhart and DMC/Bush and Forte/whoever you replace him with and Fred Jax/Spiller would have put up over 200pts by season's end...Given that, and given that the table above looks off, a 200pt RB would have finished more like 11th or 12th overall, not 5th...which is HUGELY disappointing if you take him 5-7 overall, especially with the year some QBs/Megatron had

 

What i consider "standard" scoring is point for 10 yards rushing and receiving and 6 pts TD. If thats not "standard" not sure what your definition of "standard" is.

 

If i draft a RB in first round and he finishes season in top 5 of RBs ill be happy. Im not to greedy. Ill take top 5 every year rather than like last year when CJ finished tied for 17.

[vegassandwich227 0]

What i consider "standard" scoring is point for 10 yards rushing and receiving and 6 pts TD. If thats not "standard" not sure what your definition of "standard" is.

 

right. that's not what that table seems to be using as a formula

[PATSSOX 22]

right. that's not what that table seems to be using as a formula

 

It should be all i did was download last years RBs from my cbs league

 

Anyway now i really like CJ over Mathews

[Cstriker 2]

I like playing in leagues with people like this. lol

 

 

lol, you are welcome next year to try and play in my leagues if there is a spot lol

[Lamb of God 14]

This Matthews injury took CJ out of my hands now, I mean if CJ doeasnt go in the top five I'd be sooooo happy