I have both 2nd and 3rd Overall Draft Picks

[sogr8player 0]

12 Team PPR League - I have made draft trades to end up with the 2nd and 3rd overall picks in my league. The guy with the 1st pick is getting Cam Newton... (we're in North Carolina and some people play with their hearts) So with that, I'm basically getting a 1st and 2nd pick and wonder if I should stack 2 RB's or go with an RB and QB combo. I will not get my 3rd pick until about the end of the 4th round and then I get back to the normal round picking positions. What's your thoughts? Thanks

[skinsrule05 30]

I would go RB then QB. With the big gap until your next pick you would be hurting at the other positions if you went RB-RB. This way you can get a top player at two positions.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

I would go RB then QB. With the big gap until your next pick you would be hurting at the other positions if you went RB-RB. This way you can get a top player at two positions.

Agreed. Think Foster + Rodgers = Championship.

[OilFieldTrash 0]

I would go Foster and Rice. You would have 2 STUD RB in a year where there is very little to choose from. WR is so deep this year you could potentially get a player like Wallace/Colston/Thomas and a QB in Romo/Eli/Rivers in rounds 4-5.

[Dr Hook 6]

I would also go Rice and Foster. They both have a bye in week 8. I would then try to get the best QB/WR with your next pick keeping in mind that week 8 you will be weak. I would put some weight on players with w week 8 bye and just mail it in that week making me stronger in all the other weeks.

[nyjetsfan 0]

foster and rodgers

[BoxFullofJoel 3]

Rice/foster/mccoy you can get romo/cutler/ben/ryan later at qb

[astriy 1]

Rice/foster/mccoy you can get romo/cutler/ben/ryan later at qb

 

This.

Those stud RB's are just so rare now.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Rice/foster/mccoy you can get romo/cutler/ben/ryan later at qb

 

 

McCoy and Foster....just break the wrist and walk away.

[Pecos Rattlers 5]

100% agree with taking 2 RB, then grabbing WR/TE mid rounds and getting a value QB. I'd go McCoy and Foster because they have less wear on them, but any 2 of the 3 would be an insane set of cornerstones for a fantasy team.

 

I assume you traded 2.11 and 3.2 away for 1.3? I wish someone would make me a trade like that ..

[sogr8player 0]

100% agree with taking 2 RB, then grabbing WR/TE mid rounds and getting a value QB. I'd go McCoy and Foster because they have less wear on them, but any 2 of the 3 would be an insane set of cornerstones for a fantasy team.

 

I assume you traded 2.11 and 3.2 away for 1.3? I wish someone would make me a trade like that ..

 

Yeah it was an insane trade...but i actually traded 2.10 and 3.3 for 1.2

[sogr8player 0]

OK... Now with Ryan Matthews hurt, is it really important to get 2 elite RB's with these 2 first round picks now?

[Cara 0]

OK... Now with Ryan Matthews hurt, is it really important to get 2 elite RB's with these 2 first round picks now?

 

 

With Mathews hurt, I think it makes it much more important to take your RB's early as there is one less on the board worth drafting now.

 

Personally, I would take McCoy and Foster. I love Ray Rice, but think last season will not be repeated. They lost Grubbs to New Orleans and he was a mauler inside. Losing one player isn't going to drop him much, but I still have McCoy over him.

[OilFieldTrash 0]

In the last 2 years, here are the total yards:

Foster-4061

Rice-3847

Jones-Drew-3621

McCoy-3296

Steve Jackson-3102

Chris Johnson-3074

 

In the last 3 years no one has had more yards than Rice at 5888 total.

[420allstars 13]

RB/RB is the way to go IMO (your picks on who to pair with Foster) then WR/WR the next two picks unless somone has fallen far too late to pass on.. wait on Qb and snag a Rivers/Ryan/Romo Type

[Cara 0]

In the last 2 years, here are the total yards:

Foster-4061

Rice-3847

Jones-Drew-3621

McCoy-3296

Steve Jackson-3102

Chris Johnson-3074

 

In the last 3 years no one has had more yards than Rice at 5888 total.

 

In 2010 Rice had 308 attempts and had another 291 in 2011. He also touched the ball another 139 times via the passing game in those combined years.

 

McCoy had only 207 attempts in 2010 and only 273 in 2011. He had a combined 103 touches via the air.

 

A very valid case can be made for Rice to be the top RB, or #2 behind Foster in 2012. I will still be taking McCoy though.

 

Rice has had the most combined yards AND the most combined touches. While I do not see McCoy rushing for 17 TD's in 2012, I do see his receptions increasing around 30% which should put him around the same overall numbers of a year ago. Rice should remain close to what he had last season. In weeks 1 - 16 last year, Rice outscored McCoy by 1.2 points per game and a total of 17 points overall. Rice also had a better fantasy playoff showing. I don't think you can go wrong with either selection, but I would take McCoy in 2012 as the number of carries on Rice's legs is starting to add up. Keep in mind, Rice is only 5'8 and 212. His weight is up there for his height. That many touches will take its toll eventually. He is only 25, so we may be a year or two away from it, but he had an insane amount of carries in college as well. He had 910 attempts in only 3 years at Rutgers (http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ray-rice-1.html) and 715 of those came in the final two years. There will come a point where his knees are not going to allow him to keep up this pace. It isn't so much the rushes as it is the overall touches and the fact Rice will lower his shoulder and try to gain more yardage instead of running out of bounds. I see him as having two more productive seasons, then a massive dropoff as the carries will catch up to him, if an injury doesn't arise first. He is sitting on 1,875 carries right now with almost 2,300 touches in total. Again, it may not matter this season, but it's something I like to keep an eye on in my dynasty leagues. Frank Gore dropped off in a big way once his touches were up there. Steven Jackson, on the other hand, is proof touches may not mean as much as I think. He keeps plodding along when his knees should given out on him by now. I would like to see how well that man is walking in twenty years....

[vegassandwich227 0]

i'd go rb-rb.

 

way i see it, it kinda depends on your personal opinion about the rd4-5 rb options. if there's someone there you really like who you think is gonna be a stud (martin, bjge, redman, whoever), then go rodgers or megatron. if you're like me and don't really feel strongly about any rb's from rd4 on, then rb-rb seems like the smartest play, cause there is good depth at lower tier QB1.

 

i'd assume the biggest area of concern with trading away the extra early rd pick will actually be your WRs. if you go rb-rb-qb, then you'll be grabbing your first stud wr in rd5. and you're also resigned to a low tier1 TE in rd8, assuming you go wr-wr-wr in rds 5-7...but that's not terrible b/c TE appears to have some decent depth, where you can still get a 90+pt guy late.

 

also, footballguys.com has a draft pick trading analyzer: http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm. The problem with it is that it assigns the same value to each pick every year, and doesn't consider each year's specific stud-curve (if you understand what i mean...i'd say top 3 picks have extra value this year given the big question marks at rb after that).

[vegassandwich227 0]

In 2010 Rice had 308 attempts and had another 291 in 2011. He also touched the ball another 139 times via the passing game in those combined years.

 

also had a decent workload in 2 playoff games each of the last 3 years, which further supplements your case

[Cara 0]

also had a decent workload in 2 playoff games each of the last 3 years, which further supplements your case

 

 

Why thank you. I had forgotten all about the playoffs games and his touches in each.

[OilFieldTrash 0]

Hmmmm..very interesting. Thanks for the info Cara.

[sogr8player 0]

i'd go rb-rb.

 

way i see it, it kinda depends on your personal opinion about the rd4-5 rb options. if there's someone there you really like who you think is gonna be a stud (martin, bjge, redman, whoever), then go rodgers or megatron. if you're like me and don't really feel strongly about any rb's from rd4 on, then rb-rb seems like the smartest play, cause there is good depth at lower tier QB1.

 

i'd assume the biggest area of concern with trading away the extra early rd pick will actually be your WRs. if you go rb-rb-qb, then you'll be grabbing your first stud wr in rd5. and you're also resigned to a low tier1 TE in rd8, assuming you go wr-wr-wr in rds 5-7...but that's not terrible b/c TE appears to have some decent depth, where you can still get a 90+pt guy late.

 

also, footballguys.com has a draft pick trading analyzer: http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm. The problem with it is that it assigns the same value to each pick every year, and doesn't consider each year's specific stud-curve (if you understand what i mean...i'd say top 3 picks have extra value this year given the big question marks at rb after that).

 

 

My thoughts are to go RB-RB and then at 4.10 pick the top WR left there knowing that 4.11, 4.12, 5.1, and 5.2 will already have their QB and I can pick up a QB at 5.3... then 2 more WR's would be next followed by a TE. My concern is that my league players are putting a heavy emphasis on the QB position and I don't know who exactly would be left by the 4th and 5th round... I don't know why they think that way b/c I won last year starting with a hurt Vick at the beginning of the season and then winning the Championship with Matt Ryan playing most of the season... so I might be risking decent QB points... but I still like having two stud RB's and maybe one could be trade bait for a stud QB down the road... after all, it's not just who you start the season with, it's who you end up with to win the Championship!

[sogr8player 0]

In 2010 Rice had 308 attempts and had another 291 in 2011. He also touched the ball another 139 times via the passing game in those combined years.

 

McCoy had only 207 attempts in 2010 and only 273 in 2011. He had a combined 103 touches via the air.

 

A very valid case can be made for Rice to be the top RB, or #2 behind Foster in 2012. I will still be taking McCoy though.

 

Rice has had the most combined yards AND the most combined touches. While I do not see McCoy rushing for 17 TD's in 2012, I do see his receptions increasing around 30% which should put him around the same overall numbers of a year ago. Rice should remain close to what he had last season. In weeks 1 - 16 last year, Rice outscored McCoy by 1.2 points per game and a total of 17 points overall. Rice also had a better fantasy playoff showing. I don't think you can go wrong with either selection, but I would take McCoy in 2012 as the number of carries on Rice's legs is starting to add up. Keep in mind, Rice is only 5'8 and 212. His weight is up there for his height. That many touches will take its toll eventually. He is only 25, so we may be a year or two away from it, but he had an insane amount of carries in college as well. He had 910 attempts in only 3 years at Rutgers (http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ray-rice-1.html) and 715 of those came in the final two years. There will come a point where his knees are not going to allow him to keep up this pace. It isn't so much the rushes as it is the overall touches and the fact Rice will lower his shoulder and try to gain more yardage instead of running out of bounds. I see him as having two more productive seasons, then a massive dropoff as the carries will catch up to him, if an injury doesn't arise first. He is sitting on 1,875 carries right now with almost 2,300 touches in total. Again, it may not matter this season, but it's something I like to keep an eye on in my dynasty leagues. Frank Gore dropped off in a big way once his touches were up there. Steven Jackson, on the other hand, is proof touches may not mean as much as I think. He keeps plodding along when his knees should given out on him by now. I would like to see how well that man is walking in twenty years....

 

Thanks Cara for this detailed post... I was leaning towards McCoy in the beginning, but then I leaned more towards Rice (even thought of him as higher than Foster) but then I read what you wrote here and it puts a lot of things into perspective! I think it would be much easier for me if the guy with the first pick would change his mind and pick a RB instead of Cam... this is going to be a hard decision... and I thought just being at #3 overall was hard! Keep the suggestions and opinions coming though!!!

[IGotWorms 3,315]

RB-RB for sure. Rice and McCoy or Foster? Are you focking kidding me? You would be the prohibitive favorite.

[Tomidius 1]

You dont trade up for that pick to take anything but a RB ..

 

RB RB No questions asked. of the 3.. take the 2 with the best playoff schedule

[shorepatrol 1,737]

Foster, Mccoy , Stafford, TE, WR, WR,WR

[sogr8player 0]

Take this into consideration though... in my league last year, Rodgers and Brees outscored the top RB (Rice) in our league by 100 points! Maybe that's why my league players are so high on QB's this year? But, the guy with Brees and Foster last year in my league came in 2nd place to me... but I had Megatron, Welker, and Matt Ryan... so the basic same scenario with two WR's and an ok QB as if I have two RB's and hopefully get an ok QB this year... I don't know... if I could see the future, then I would go with the RB that will not miss a game and combine him with a QB that will break records... unfortunately, there is not a crystal ball that can tell me these things. So, my question is... do I give up the 100 points difference (if the QB's do what they did last year) or risk the RB's not missing a game and hopefully get a decent QB? My brain is about to explode!!!!!

[kicked in the zombos 0]

Think of it this way. Which combo would score more in your league?

 

Foster

McCoy

Rivers/Ryan/Manning

 

or

 

Foster

Rodgers

Brandon Lloyd/Shonn Greene/McGahee

[Jeff Garcia 8]

Foster/McCoy and then Megatron.

[sogr8player 0]

Think of it this way. Which combo would score more in your league?

 

Foster

McCoy

Rivers/Ryan/Manning

 

or

 

Foster

Rodgers

Brandon Lloyd/Shonn Greene/McGahee

 

 

Yeah... I see your point... and I have been doing the calculations on all the scenario... I'm just going to pretend no one will get hurt! HAHA

[Raider 84 29]

I'd take the safe route with Rodgers. You know that you are getting 40 total tds from Rodgers. With the next pick you can't go wrong with McCoy Rice or Foster.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Rice and foster no doubt. Rodgers is a waste when u see the qb u en up with in the 4th. An argument could be made for Calvin too but the 2 rbs are a no brainer.

[jerryskids 5,206]

You dont trade up for that pick to take anything but a RB ..

 

 

This. Because...

 

Take this into consideration though... in my league last year, Rodgers and Brees outscored the top RB (Rice) in our league by 100 points!

 

... it's not absolute points, but rather relative points, or Value Based Drafting (VBD).

 

Unless you have 6 pts passing TDs, there is no reason to place undue value on the QB position.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

I too would go RB/RB. Not only are you making yourself strong at the weakest position, you are also hurting everyone else by taking two premiere RB's off the board.

[sogr8player 0]

This. Because...

 

 

 

... it's not absolute points, but rather relative points, or Value Based Drafting (VBD).

 

Unless you have 6 pts passing TDs, there is no reason to place undue value on the QB position.

 

OK...i understand what you're saying and most people do say to use the VBD rank when drafting...but our league does have 6 points passing TD's...does that change the VBD for me any in my position?

[Pecos Rattlers 5]

You definitely should use VBD with your league's point system. If you have it uploaded on FF Today, you can glance at the stats from last season (and projections for this season) and see which is better.

 

Here's a comparison using last year's VBD from pro football reference (stat site) and current ADP. Both teams have 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE to make the comparison easier (it doesn't matter whether you add VBD or total fantasy pts in this case & I don't want to calculate the VBD #'s for my second example).

 

I didn't check, but I -think- these stats are 6 pts for passing TD and no negative points for interceptions.

 

Team Double Stud RB

1.2 Foster: 108

1.3 McCoy: 134

3.8 Victor Cruz 92

4.3 Jordy Nelson 100

5.8 Aaron Hernandez 40

6.3 Eli: 74

Total: 548 VBD, 1565 Fantasy Points

 

Team Rodgers

1.2 Foster: 108

1.3 Rodgers: 215

3.8 Turner 68

4.3 Jordy Nelson 100

5.8 Aaron Hernandez 40

6.3 Dwayne Bowe 31

Total: 562 VBD, 1579 Fantasy Points

 

Ok .. so that doesn't work out in favor of my advice I might be able to tweak it (lies, damn lies and statistics and all) but instead I'll just say, you should use points from your league. You should also use your own projected stats (or FF Today's) instead of last year's stats. For example, I don't think many people are projecting Rodgers to repeat his stellar point total from last year.

 

Lets take the same teams and using FFToday's projected stats and my league's scoring (highlights: 25 passing yards = 1 pt, passing TD = 5 pts, int = -2 pts, 10 rush/rcv = 1 pt, 0.3 PPR)

(note that these values are full fantasy pts, not VBD like above)

 

Team Double Stud RB

1.2 Foster: 324

1.3 McCoy: 274

3.8 Victor Cruz: 215

4.3 Jordy Nelson: 181

5.8 Aaron Hernandez: 158

6.3 Eli: 296

Total: 1448 Fantasy Points

 

Team Rodgers

1.2 Foster: 324

1.3 Rodgers: 418

3.8 Turner: 168

4.3 Jordy Nelson: 181

5.8 Aaron Hernandez: 158

6.3 Dwayne Bowe: 174

Total: 1423 Fantasy Points

 

That is somewhat more supportive of taking 2 RB, but it is still a lot closer than I thought it would be. Even though the Rodgers team is lower value it is close enough that you could make a case for taking him to reduce risk.

 

Final word: It's close .. Run the #'s yourself using your league stats to get the best idea.

[Chronic Husker 85]

OK...i understand what you're saying and most people do say to use the VBD rank when drafting...but our league does have 6 points passing TD's...does that change the VBD for me any in my position?

 

Give him your scoring rules and make him calculate it out for you.

 

He will. Trust me.

 

 

Fock u, jk.

 

[sogr8player 0]

You definitely should use VBD with your league's point system. If you have it uploaded on FF Today, you can glance at the stats from last season (and projections for this season) and see which is better.

 

Here's a comparison using last year's VBD from pro football reference (stat site) and current ADP. Both teams have 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE to make the comparison easier (it doesn't matter whether you add VBD or total fantasy pts in this case & I don't want to calculate the VBD #'s for my second example).

 

I didn't check, but I -think- these stats are 6 pts for passing TD and no negative points for interceptions.

 

Team Double Stud RB

1.2 Foster: 108

1.3 McCoy: 134

3.8 Victor Cruz 92

4.3 Jordy Nelson 100

5.8 Aaron Hernandez 40

6.3 Eli: 74

Total: 548 VBD, 1565 Fantasy Points

 

Team Rodgers

1.2 Foster: 108

1.3 Rodgers: 215

3.8 Turner 68

4.3 Jordy Nelson 100

5.8 Aaron Hernandez 40

6.3 Dwayne Bowe 31

Total: 562 VBD, 1579 Fantasy Points

 

Ok .. so that doesn't work out in favor of my advice I might be able to tweak it (lies, damn lies and statistics and all) but instead I'll just say, you should use points from your league. You should also use your own projected stats (or FF Today's) instead of last year's stats. For example, I don't think many people are projecting Rodgers to repeat his stellar point total from last year.

 

Lets take the same teams and using FFToday's projected stats and my league's scoring (highlights: 25 passing yards = 1 pt, passing TD = 5 pts, int = -2 pts, 10 rush/rcv = 1 pt, 0.3 PPR)

(note that these values are full fantasy pts, not VBD like above)

 

Team Double Stud RB

1.2 Foster: 324

1.3 McCoy: 274

3.8 Victor Cruz: 215

4.3 Jordy Nelson: 181

5.8 Aaron Hernandez: 158

6.3 Eli: 296

Total: 1448 Fantasy Points

 

Team Rodgers

1.2 Foster: 324

1.3 Rodgers: 418

3.8 Turner: 168

4.3 Jordy Nelson: 181

5.8 Aaron Hernandez: 158

6.3 Dwayne Bowe: 174

Total: 1423 Fantasy Points

 

That is somewhat more supportive of taking 2 RB, but it is still a lot closer than I thought it would be. Even though the Rodgers team is lower value it is close enough that you could make a case for taking him to reduce risk.

 

Final word: It's close .. Run the #'s yourself using your league stats to get the best idea.

 

Ok...both ways seem close using VBD or your point system...here is my point system: Team = 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1 TE - Points = 6 passing TD, -3 Interception, 1 every 25 yds passing, 6 rushing TD, 1 every 10 yds rushing, 1 every reception, 1 every 10 yds receiving, 6 receiving TD, -2 fumbles

 

Thanks for your help and advice...let me know which scenario best fits my league point system

[49ER MAN 0]

I would take McCoy and Foster as you'd have 2 of the top 3 RB's off of the board at a position where RB studs are very scarce. Even if it's not McCoy and Foster, take Rice/Foster or Rice/McCoy as it depends upon which pair you like best. Rodgers deserves consideration as well but I think you can get a QB later that could be top 5 or top 10 at worst case scenario and steamroll your competition.

[sogr8player 0]

Ok...I've done a few mock drafts and everything says to go RB-RB and then my next pick at 4.10 should be QB and at 5.3 should be the best TE available...then get at least a couple WR's on the next 2 picks and then a backup RB or handcuff next... Thoughts?

[fatguylittlecoat 13]

You are nuts if you don't go QB / RB, if you pick up Brady or Rogers, it's like getting two players. You'll dilute the league's talent because you're taking one of the top 4 QB's and then one of the top 3 RB's. If you don't win, shame on you.