Stud TE crew

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

All through the offseason and preseason there were a lot of guys who were high on or dead set on drafting Graham and Gronk in the late first, early 2nd. Even saw some cases in dynasty leagues where they went early first.

 

After 5 weeks they sit at 4th and 5th respectively in the rankings. not bad by any stretch of the imagination but certainly not head and shoulders above the rest of the TE's as they were supposed to be which pretty much was the basis of drafting them so early.

 

Regardless of what position you draft early, you still need to identify the right players. Drafting Chris Johnson might have you dead right now. But TE is a very deep, start 1 type position.

 

was it worth it?

[jerryskids 5,207]

I don't think so. I grabbed Graham at 2.06 in a 10-team PPR; thought I was getting a steal. That team is 1-4.

 

I waited on TE in my main money league -- Fred Davis hasn't done squat, yet I'm 4-1 and by far the highest scorer.

 

Also waited on TE in IBL (Celek and Cook) -- again bubkus, but I'm 23-12.

 

Perhaps not statistically significant, but going early on TE seems to leave you playing catchup in the other skill positions.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I don't think so. I grabbed Graham at 2.06 in a 10-team PPR; thought I was getting a steal. That team is 1-4.

 

I waited on TE in my main money league -- Fred Davis hasn't done squat, yet I'm 4-1 and by far the highest scorer.

 

Also waited on TE in IBL (Celek and Cook) -- again bubkus, but I'm 23-12.

 

Perhaps not statistically significant, but going early on TE seems to leave you playing catchup in the other skill positions.

 

it all sort of depends on the other players. There were many pundits of the QB/TE early theory (popularized by Matthew Berry this offseason) but it depends on your league settings a lot. If you went QB/TE early, but were able to get guys later or off waiver wire like Alfred Morris (WAS) then you are likely doing ok. I drafted in the back half of both of my drafts, 7th in a 10 teamer and 7th in a 12 teamer and considered going QB/TE in both but opted not to. I think I've got loaded teams, however, have been very disappointed by Gates in the 10 teamer (bad pick, I knew better but the value was too good and his "healthy hype" was too high). Been very happy with Vernon Davis in the other. I went RB/WR heavy early in both and am pretty satisfied right now despite hovering under .500 in one and just over .500 in the other. On the whole I'm glad I didn't grab the Graham/Gronk early ripcord.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

My point the whole off season was that guys drafting TE early were paying for a non premium position. In most leagues, even flex, you only HAVE to start 1 tight end. But you likely have to start at least 4 RB/WR's, in most cases 5. Everyone knows that no matter what position you draft, you still have to draft the right player... (that old saying that while you can't win your league in the first few rounds you can certainly lose it) but why not use those early picks on the more premium positions?

 

Again it's not like Graham or Gronk are doing bad (4th and 5th in PPR TE rankings) but the big selling points I kept hearing were

 

1. These two will outscore all other TE's by a huge margin.

2. Both of these guys will perform like WR1's again.

 

neither is true through 5 weeks.

 

 

I am certainly not tooting my own horn. I was big on Gates, thought he would be right up there with the studs at aq 5th or 6th round value. Drafting him in one league and am lucky to be 4-1 based on the rest of my drafting.

 

Skids mentioned the IBL. I also waited on a TE in the IBL and ended up with Owen Daniels. I actually wanted Olsen and "settled" for Daniels. that team is off to a 27-8 start. (7 games per week)

[Arsenal 3]

Its hard to say - I picked up Graham at 2.08 in one league (12 teams). In my other league I grabbed Pettigrew and Keller later... then dumped Keller for Pitta... that has been a true disaster.

 

What I was really looking for with taking a TE that early was consistency - someone that could give me steady points week in and week out instead of the typical TE scoring where every other week is a zero. For the most part I have been getting that with Graham except for Week 5 in which he was injured. So I would say, no, I havn't regretted taking Graham in the back of the second round, but there is no way I would have taken him at the 1.10 position he went in my other league.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I was probably the biggest supporter of TE early along with QB early. Out of my 5 leagues I have Graham in 4 and Gronk in 1. I was also big on the draft a QB early strategy in which I have Brees, Stafford, Stafford, Ryan, and Eli. I kept Stafford in the 10th in one league. I drafted Brady in the first in the league that I also drafted Ryan. Eli was the only league where I actually waited on a QB. I do not have a team with a losing record as my records are as follows

 

4-1 Overall points T-1st/10

4-1 Overall points 3/10, 12 behind 1st

3-2 Overall points 5/12, 72 behind

3-2 Overall points 9/10, 117 behind (Yeah really lucky in this one)

3-2 Overall points 1/10

 

There is definitely a bit of luck with some of these teams as I haven't had a ton of points scored against me. I also have made a bunch of trades which most have seemed to help my team overcome deficiencies after draft day.

 

I do not regret my strategy as I feel I have been fortunate enough to have a winning record in all leagues. I am hoping that the TEs on my teams will start to pick up the pace and make my teams that much more lethal.

[jerryskids 5,207]

My brain seems to work best when my drafts go something like:

 

Rounds 1-4: Load up on RB/WR

Rounds 4-6: Start considering a Tier 2 QB who I think can put up Tier 1 numbers.

Rounds 6-8: Insert TE for QB above.

 

When I grabbed Graham early (and in the past when I grabbed QB early) I found myself chasing players -- looking for RB1 in RB2 range, or WR2 in WR3 range -- and making what I would call "unnatural" draft decisions.

[kmbryant09 1]

Oh you mean is he a bust because you were stupid enough to draft a rookie rb that high? Yeah he probably wont meet your unrealistic expectations on a weekly basis. I mean there is a ton of historical data showing the likelyhood of a rookie rb being a stud right away isnt very good. I would try to explain it but you probably wouldnt understand. Judging by how many posts you have I can assume that you dont know much about fantasy football so I am really not surprised.

 

Also blaming others for your stupidity is nice way to puss out. You are crying because someone else pumped a player and you bought in.

I think it's a bit of hindsight (and premature) to say that the strategy didn't work. Should Gronk & Graham ever have been mid-first round picks? Probably not. But even the owners that "reached" for these guys took them over the likes of: Stafford, Newton, Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, Ryan Mathews, etc. And I'd say that none of those guys have been setting the world on fire.

 

Then there's been a series of unforeseen events that make this look like a bad strategy:

-Gronk has been bothered by injuries, and lost his TE running mate which allows defenses to key in on Gronk. Not to mention NE suddenly looks like a run-first team.

-Graham has battled injuries himself.

-Tony Gonzalez is having a career year at age 36. No matter how high people were on ATL, nobody saw this coming from Gonzo.

-Guys like Kyle Rudolph and Heath Miller have plunged the endzone an absurd amount of times, making the TE position appear deep. A trend that I don't expect to continue.

 

For what it's worth, I still think Gronk & Graham are/were safe draft picks (depending on their health). Who else could you have taken at the end of the 1st, or early 2nd, that would still produce like top5 players at their position despite a disappointing first month to the season? CJ2K has been disappointing, and he's been un-startable. Stafford and Cam have been disappointing, and they've both outside the top10 QB's in my leagues.

[Bruce Benedict 0]

There have been so many busts and injuries peppering the first four rounds this year that success so far has a lot more to do with successfully navigating the minefield than it does with strategy.

 

I didn't draft those guys, and still wouldn't, because I thought RB was shallow enough this year that your first picks should almost certainly be RB heavy. That said, I'd happily take Gronk or Graham instead if I could get a do-over in the league where I got Chris Johnson.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

It's obvious that taking Gronk and Graham early haven't worked out after 5 weeks but it's still early. These guys have the skill set and targets to quickly pull away from the pack. The biggest surprise have been Tony Gonzo. I think his numbers will come down as teams will try to take away Matt Ryan's security blanket and force him to make the 10-20 yard down field pass to White or Jones.

[FeelingMN 273]

I think it's a bit of hindsight (and premature) to say that the strategy didn't work. Should Gronk & Graham ever have been mid-first round picks? Probably not. But even the owners that "reached" for these guys took them over the likes of: Stafford, Newton, Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, Ryan Mathews, etc. And I'd say that none of those guys have been setting the world on fire.

 

Of course they also could have gotten Richardson and Charles....and those guys are setting the world on fire.

 

Gronk and Graham are good players, and I probably want them over every other TE going forward. But their draft price was way too high, and people selecting them in the 2nd were paying for last year's stats.

 

You can win with virtually any draft strategy. Folks targeting these two TEs could very well be having a fine year because they drafted the right players in the later rounds. All that's nice....but the fact is Gronk and Graham weren't worth their 2nd round pricetags.

[Fantasy Noob 10]

I did it in one league and regret it. I had argued against it in 12 teamers but in my 10 teamer I gave it a whirl and am 2-3. Not dead and buried but it has not given me the positional advantage it had too for it to pay off.

[Serpent 51]

Of course they also could have gotten Richardson and Charles....and those guys are setting the world on fire.

 

Gronk and Graham are good players, and I probably want them over every other TE going forward. But their draft price was way too high, and people selecting them in the 2nd were paying for last year's stats.

 

You can win with virtually any draft strategy. Folks targeting these two TEs could very well be having a fine year because they drafted the right players in the later rounds. All that's nice....but the fact is Gronk and Graham weren't worth their 2nd round pricetags.

 

In most leagues you could get Richardson and Charles in the 3rd round, sometimes even lower for Charles. They were both coming off injuries and one is a rookie on an awful team. I have both in various leagues 12 teamers, although I had to trade for Richardson in one.

 

I draft generally based by draft position. If I am late in the round, I like the QB/TE approach. It's the safest option you have. Then you just load up on RBs later on, especially the guys that will play in a few weeks like Mendy, LeShoure or Spiller. It can be a little rough to start but generally you will have a good group by around now.

[kmbryant09 1]

Of course they also could have gotten Richardson and Charles....and those guys are setting the world on fire.

 

Gronk and Graham are good players, and I probably want them over every other TE going forward. But their draft price was way too high, and people selecting them in the 2nd were paying for last year's stats.

 

You can win with virtually any draft strategy. Folks targeting these two TEs could very well be having a fine year because they drafted the right players in the later rounds. All that's nice....but the fact is Gronk and Graham weren't worth their 2nd round pricetags.

Doesn't matter how you slice it. Bottom line is that a lot of players in the late 1 - late 2 rounds have not produced up to their standards, Gronk & Graham included. Nobody would have faulted an owner for drafting Chris Johnson ahead of Jamaal Charles before the season started. Nobody would have faulted an owner for drafting Matthew Stafford ahead of Matt Ryan before the season started.

 

You can't point to someone like Reggie Wayne and now question why an owner took RB's in the 4-6th rounds instead of grabbing a great WR like Wayne.

 

Sure, owners were drafting for last year's production. And that production was sure to regress a little bit. But we are talking about 2 FREAK athletes, who aren't even entering their prime years yet (23 and 25 years old ). And they have 2 of the league's best QB's throwing to them, and are arguably the top receiving options in the 2 best offenses in the league.

 

Again, not only is it premature to say they were reaches, but it's complete hindsight.

[gpann101 32]

I was high on VD this year above everyone else. Lookin like my hunch was right(so far).

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

no no no

 

don't start playing the "i wanted them for their safety" or consistency card. They were touted as can't miss guys who would blow away the competition at Tight End, and the reason to draft them that high, despite the depth at the position, was to have an advantage at TE over your weekly competition.

 

any way you slice it, this has not been the case.

 

we've already established that no matter what position you draft, you need to avoid the minefield of busts. naturally. and i'm not calling either gronk or graham busts.

 

but was it worth paying a premium at a non premium position? do you still think these guys will end up outscoring all other tight ends by 80+ points like they did last year?

[jgcrawfish 232]

I think it's a bit of hindsight (and premature) to say that the strategy didn't work. Should Gronk & Graham ever have been mid-first round picks? Probably not. But even the owners that "reached" for these guys took them over the likes of: Stafford, Newton, Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, Ryan Mathews, etc. And I'd say that none of those guys have been setting the world on fire.

 

Then there's been a series of unforeseen events that make this look like a bad strategy:

-Gronk has been bothered by injuries, and lost his TE running mate which allows defenses to key in on Gronk. Not to mention NE suddenly looks like a run-first team.

-Graham has battled injuries himself.

-Tony Gonzalez is having a career year at age 36. No matter how high people were on ATL, nobody saw this coming from Gonzo.

-Guys like Kyle Rudolph and Heath Miller have plunged the endzone an absurd amount of times, making the TE position appear deep. A trend that I don't expect to continue.

 

For what it's worth, I still think Gronk & Graham are/were safe draft picks (depending on their health). Who else could you have taken at the end of the 1st, or early 2nd, that would still produce like top5 players at their position despite a disappointing first month to the season? CJ2K has been disappointing, and he's been un-startable. Stafford and Cam have been disappointing, and they've both outside the top10 QB's in my leagues.

 

This is also why I've been happy with Vernon Davis. He gets a few targets each game, gets redzone love, and generally puts up respectable numbers each week. You're dead on for Rudolph, Miller and Daniels as well, I don't think they can sustain the pace they're on with the TD's. Nobody can predict when/where the injury bug strikes, but I still feel like you can be competitive with a lower tier TE if you load up everywhere else. I've grabbed Bennett in a couple of leagues and even he's been passable as a starter most weeks.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Doesn't matter how you slice it. Bottom line is that a lot of players in the late 1 - late 2 rounds have not produced up to their standards, Gronk & Graham included. Nobody would have faulted an owner for drafting Chris Johnson ahead of Jamaal Charles before the season started. Nobody would have faulted an owner for drafting Matthew Stafford ahead of Matt Ryan before the season started.

 

You can't point to someone like Reggie Wayne and now question why an owner took RB's in the 4-6th rounds instead of grabbing a great WR like Wayne.

 

Sure, owners were drafting for last year's production. And that production was sure to regress a little bit. But we are talking about 2 FREAK athletes, who aren't even entering their prime years yet (23 and 25 years old ). And they have 2 of the league's best QB's throwing to them, and are arguably the top receiving options in the 2 best offenses in the league.

 

Again, not only is it premature to say they were reaches, but it's complete hindsight.

 

hindsight? you realize we deal in foresight and hindsight when it comes to fantasy football....

 

what you're saying when you give specific player examples is all well and good, and correct... but its not the point. sure, no one would fault an owner for taking CJ0K over Jamal Charles. CJ0K is the extreme negative. It sucks to have drafted him over any other projected first or second rounder. He is a COMPLETE BUST.

 

Gronk and Graham don't fall into that category. They have been solid. If you ask any fantasy owner if they would like the 4th or 5th ranked TE who produces consistent numbers week in and week out they are going to say "hell yes!" But they probably would have expected to draft such players in round 7

 

again it's more a matter of tight end just not being a premium position. and the argument all off season was that despite Te not being premium and despite there being a lot of depth, these guys were going to blow the tops off the league again and it was reason enough to pass on more important positions

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

well anyway, for all i know Gronk and Graham will now go on tears and blow the competition out of the water.

 

i was just curious, with a third of the fantasy season in the books, if owners were still so high on the stud TE theory.

[Bruce Benedict 0]

but was it worth paying a premium at a non premium position?

Obviously depends. Neither guy HAS "busted." And both have pretty good prospects moving forward. Who might you have grabbed instead? Whether it was "worth it" depends on that, more than anything.

 

It's easy to say it would have been preferable to pick Charles or TRich, but in the mid-2nd, both those guys had LOTS of people who weren't touching them with a ten foot Gronk, and not without good reason. ACL, rookie, etc.

 

Here's a look back at ADP's, using ESPN's aggregate stats, just for reference's sake...

 

1 Arian Foster, Hou

2 Ray Rice, Bal

3 Aaron Rodgers, GB

4 LeSean McCoy, Phi

5 Tom Brady, NE QB

6 Calvin Johnson, Det

7 Drew Brees, NO QB

8 Chris Johnson, Ten

9 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac

10 Andre Johnson, Hou

11 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari

12 Marshawn Lynch, Sea

13 Matthew Stafford, Det

14 Rob Gronkowski, NE

15 Adrian Peterson, Min

16 Matt Forte, Chi RB

17 Roddy White, Atl

18 DeMarco Murray, Dal

19 Cam Newton, Car QB

20 Jimmy Graham, NO

21 Greg Jennings, GB

22 Darren McFadden, Oak

 

...all of which says, it was REALLY FRICKING HARD to successfully grab a guy in that late-first through late-second area who 1) was fairly safe, and 2) didn't end up a colossal bust, at least so far.

 

You almost had to write those rounds off and reach for a 3rd/4th rounder LIKE Charles or TRich for things to work out. Yeah, there's Lynch, there's Roddy, to a lesser extent, there's AD...but for the most part, you were going to end up further ahead if you DID draft Gronk or Graham. Not because they are earning the high draft pick with their performance. But because of all the guys you could have reasonably taken, they turned out less catastrophically than most.

 

As much as we like to think we pay for stud performance, all we ever really pay for is the reasonable likelihood our guys will finish among the top echelon of performers at their position, somewhere. G&G are delivering there, so far. Are they the bargains of the draft? Of course not. But not only could you have done worse...most people did a LOT worse in that range.

[FeelingMN 273]

Doesn't matter how you slice it. Bottom line is that a lot of players in the late 1 - late 2 rounds have not produced up to their standards, Gronk & Graham included. Nobody would have faulted an owner for drafting Chris Johnson ahead of Jamaal Charles before the season started. Nobody would have faulted an owner for drafting Matthew Stafford ahead of Matt Ryan before the season started.

 

You can't point to someone like Reggie Wayne and now question why an owner took RB's in the 4-6th rounds instead of grabbing a great WR like Wayne.

 

Sure, owners were drafting for last year's production. And that production was sure to regress a little bit. But we are talking about 2 FREAK athletes, who aren't even entering their prime years yet (23 and 25 years old ). And they have 2 of the league's best QB's throwing to them, and are arguably the top receiving options in the 2 best offenses in the league.

 

Again, not only is it premature to say they were reaches, but it's complete hindsight.

 

Doesn't matter how you slice it, neither Gronk nor Graham are worth their respective pricetags. If you wanna wait until week 16 to assign the "value" or "bust" tags, that's playing the ultimate hindsight game. And that's not to say either TE is a bust, they're not....but they haven't been worth their draft price either. Alot of guys haven't, as you've pointed out. Stafford was overvalued. So was Cam. So was Andre Johnson. So was Antonio Gates. Lots of guys haven't lived up to their ADP. Doesn't mean they won't turn it around....just means right now, they weren't worth where they were taken.

 

If people are happy with their selections....cool. But they still overpaid for the production they're getting right now. I mean, the fantasy season is about a third over. At some point it becomes instructive to reassess your draft strategy while those thought processes are still fresh in your head. I'm not gonna wait until December...or next summer to second guess myself on some of my less successful decisions. Now is the prefect time to say coulda-woulda-shoulda so that it might help you next year. And the take away for me, at least as far as this topic is concerned, is that TE is the ultimate value position. You're almost always better waiting on a TE than selecting one of the first few off the board.

[FeelingMN 273]

Obviously depends. Neither guy HAS "busted." And both have pretty good prospects moving forward. Who might you have grabbed instead? Whether it was "worth it" depends on that, more than anything.

 

It's easy to say it would have been preferable to pick Charles or TRich, but in the mid-2nd, both those guys had LOTS of people who weren't touching them with a ten foot Gronk, and not without good reason. ACL, rookie, etc.

 

Here's a look back at ADP's, using ESPN's aggregate stats, just for reference's sake...

 

1 Arian Foster, Hou

2 Ray Rice, Bal

3 Aaron Rodgers, GB

4 LeSean McCoy, Phi

5 Tom Brady, NE QB

6 Calvin Johnson, Det

7 Drew Brees, NO QB

8 Chris Johnson, Ten

9 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac

10 Andre Johnson, Hou

11 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari

12 Marshawn Lynch, Sea

13 Matthew Stafford, Det

14 Rob Gronkowski, NE

15 Adrian Peterson, Min

16 Matt Forte, Chi RB

17 Roddy White, Atl

18 DeMarco Murray, Dal

19 Cam Newton, Car QB

20 Jimmy Graham, NO

21 Greg Jennings, GB

22 Darren McFadden, Oak

 

...all of which says, it was REALLY FRICKING HARD to successfully grab a guy in that late-first through late-second area who 1) was fairly safe, and 2) didn't end up a colossal bust, at least so far.

 

You almost had to write those rounds off and reach for a 3rd/4th rounder LIKE Charles or TRich for things to work out. Yeah, there's Lynch, there's Roddy, to a lesser extent, there's AD...but for the most part, you were going to end up further ahead if you DID draft Gronk or Graham. Not because they are earning the high draft pick with their performance. But because of all the guys you could have reasonably taken, they turned out less catastrophically than most.

 

As much as we like to think we pay for stud performance, all we ever really pay for is the reasonable likelihood our guys will finish among the top echelon of performers at their position, somewhere. G&G are delivering there, so far. Are they the bargains of the draft? Of course not. But not only could you have done worse...most people did a LOT worse in that range.

 

SF D/ST has outscored Gronk in my league. Good pick in the second? If not, what's the difference?

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Obviously depends. Neither guy HAS "busted." And both have pretty good prospects moving forward. Who might you have grabbed instead? Whether it was "worth it" depends on that, more than anything.

 

It's easy to say it would have been preferable to pick Charles or TRich, but in the mid-2nd, both those guys had LOTS of people who weren't touching them with a ten foot Gronk, and not without good reason. ACL, rookie, etc.

 

Here's a look back at ADP's, using ESPN's aggregate stats, just for reference's sake...

 

1 Arian Foster, Hou

2 Ray Rice, Bal

3 Aaron Rodgers, GB

4 LeSean McCoy, Phi

5 Tom Brady, NE QB

6 Calvin Johnson, Det

7 Drew Brees, NO QB

8 Chris Johnson, Ten

9 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac

10 Andre Johnson, Hou

11 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari

12 Marshawn Lynch, Sea

13 Matthew Stafford, Det

14 Rob Gronkowski, NE

15 Adrian Peterson, Min

16 Matt Forte, Chi RB

17 Roddy White, Atl

18 DeMarco Murray, Dal

19 Cam Newton, Car QB

20 Jimmy Graham, NO

21 Greg Jennings, GB

22 Darren McFadden, Oak

 

...all of which says, it was REALLY FRICKING HARD to successfully grab a guy in that late-first through late-second area who 1) was fairly safe, and 2) didn't end up a colossal bust, at least so far.

 

You almost had to write those rounds off and reach for a 3rd/4th rounder LIKE Charles or TRich for things to work out. Yeah, there's Lynch, there's Roddy, to a lesser extent, there's AD...but for the most part, you were going to end up further ahead if you DID draft Gronk or Graham. Not because they are earning the high draft pick with their performance. But because of all the guys you could have reasonably taken, they turned out less catastrophically than most.

 

As much as we like to think we pay for stud performance, all we ever really pay for is the reasonable likelihood our guys will finish among the top echelon of performers at their position, somewhere. G&G are delivering there, so far. Are they the bargains of the draft? Of course not. But not only could you have done worse...most people did a LOT worse in that range.

 

Don't get me wrong, i agree with what you're saying. there are plenty of players who have not lived up to their ADP/ hype.

 

I'm not really trying to compare slumping players across all positions. I personally feel a slumping RB is a little easier to stomach because he plays a premium position. Some teams struggle to field two starters during bye weeks and even a slumping RB can sometimes give you a leg up on your opponent for the simple fact he gets the workload to rely on.

 

No one took Darren McFadden in the late first round because they expected him to outscore all other RB's by 100 points. They took him because he may have represented the best available guy at one of the more important (and thin) positions.

 

However the stud TE people were ignoring the idea that tight end has a lot of depth and not a lot of demand. They instead went with the starry eyed notion that these two guys would demolish the rest of the tight ends.

[Serpent 51]

Don't get me wrong, i agree with what you're saying. there are plenty of players who have not lived up to their ADP/ hype.

 

I'm not really trying to compare slumping players across all positions. I personally feel a slumping RB is a little easier to stomach because he plays a premium position. Some teams struggle to field two starters during bye weeks and even a slumping RB can sometimes give you a leg up on your opponent for the simple fact he gets the workload to rely on.

 

No one took Darren McFadden in the late first round because they expected him to outscore all other RB's by 100 points. They took him because he may have represented the best available guy at one of the more important (and thin) positions.

 

However the stud TE people were ignoring the idea that tight end has a lot of depth and not a lot of demand. They instead went with the starry eyed notion that these two guys would demolish the rest of the tight ends.

 

There is nothing worse than busting on a top RB pick. They eat up a roster slot and prevent you from playing a matchup game with lesser RBs, who then in hindsight turn out to be studs. While some guy is busy losing games with Run DMC and CJFail, Another guy is starting Brees and Graham and rotating in Alf, Spiller, LeShoure, Mendy, Ridley etc. I know because...I am that guy.

 

If you're using your early picks on RBs, you're going to have to use later picks on that QB/TE, and probably WRs too. Since you don't know when that QB/TE will play well, you have to carry more of them too to be safe.

 

Sure if you had a crack at a Foster or Rice that's one thing. But if you're picking after Pick 4 that's probably off the table anyway. There's a reason why Foster goes 1st every year.

[Arsenal 3]

If you're using your early picks on RBs, you're going to have to use later picks on that QB/TE, and probably WRs too. Since you don't know when that QB/TE will play well, you have to carry more of them too to be safe.

 

I think this is the key for me. With Graham at TE, I don't have to worry about matchups, carrying 2 TEs, or figuring out which TE to play - I just plug him in. (assuming his injury situation isn't an issue going forward).

 

He hasn't lived up to a 2nd round value so far, I will give you that. However, it is too early for me to be rethinking my draft strategy because I honestly don't think I would have made a better choice at a different position. Its hard to get too down on a guy that you still have confidence in starting every week without even thinking about.

[kmbryant09 1]

hindsight? you realize we deal in foresight and hindsight when it comes to fantasy football....

 

what you're saying when you give specific player examples is all well and good, and correct... but its not the point. sure, no one would fault an owner for taking CJ0K over Jamal Charles. CJ0K is the extreme negative. It sucks to have drafted him over any other projected first or second rounder. He is a COMPLETE BUST.

 

Gronk and Graham don't fall into that category. They have been solid. If you ask any fantasy owner if they would like the 4th or 5th ranked TE who produces consistent numbers week in and week out they are going to say "hell yes!" But they probably would have expected to draft such players in round 7

 

again it's more a matter of tight end just not being a premium position. and the argument all off season was that despite Te not being premium and despite there being a lot of depth, these guys were going to blow the tops off the league again and it was reason enough to pass on more important positions

If I'm asked to pick a coin flip, and I say heads, and it's tails...you don't get to look back at my decision and laugh in my face because I made a bad call. That's called hindsight.

 

I believe that picking out 2 players out of about 12 that were drafted in the late 1st-early 2nd of most drafts and claiming that these decisions were wrong is hindsight. If you passed on Graham or Gronk, you likely chose someone like Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Cam Newton, Andre Johnson, etc. etc. Guess what, you were still wrong!

 

Plus, these guys are 4th and 5th in most leagues - behind 36 year old Tony Gonzalez career year (so far), Vernon Davis, and Owen Daniels (so far). If both Gronk and Graham remain healthy, I'd wager a hefty amount that BOTH are top3 TE's by season's end. Just look at the guys who are trailing these 2: Scott Chandler? Kyle Rudolph? Heath Miller? Martellus Bennett? Somebody raise your hand if you feel confident these TE's will continue their fast starts.

 

And that adds to Gronk/Graham's value. Sure, Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis have been every week starters in fantasy. But who realistically started Heath Miller all season? Chandler? Rudolph? The other "depth TE's" that owners passed on Gronk & Graham for have produced literally nothing - Witten (1 good game likely from the bench), Hernandez (1 good game then injured), Gates (nothing), Finley (nothing)

 

Gronk is on pace for 74/1000/10 in what has been a disappointing start - marred with injuries (that he's played through) and the absence of Hernandez (which I believe hurts Gronk).

Graham was on pace for 100/1000/12 thru 4 weeks (throwing out week 5 since he left extremely early cuz of injury).

 

Part of what makes these guys great, and potential 1st or 2nd round picks, is that DESPITE those season-long projections, we are discussing how disappointing they've been.

 

For what it's worth, I didn't draft either of these 2 TE's in any of my 3 leagues (although I did keep Gronk as a 3rd keeper in one).

[p00h 85]

They'll both get theirs and be head and shoulders above MOST other TEs. But this being a super pass happy league now, there are other TEs that might get close enough to these two that the vbd math won't dictate either a success at where they were drafted. Having said that, very very hard to determine which of those other TEs will have great years, and also which dudes in the late first/mid second that turned out studs vs. duds. Meaning their consistent solid performance will assure they were not a major bust. Unlike the CJs and SJax and DMacs etc etc etc. very happy w gronk in 1 league and wish I took TE early in other leagues as I'm straddled with garbage rbs in a few leAgues...

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

If I'm asked to pick a coin flip, and I say heads, and it's tails...you don't get to look back at my decision and laugh in my face because I made a bad call. That's called hindsight.

 

I believe that picking out 2 players out of about 12 that were drafted in the late 1st-early 2nd of most drafts and claiming that these decisions were wrong is hindsight. If you passed on Graham or Gronk, you likely chose someone like Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Cam Newton, Andre Johnson, etc. etc. Guess what, you were still wrong!

 

Plus, these guys are 4th and 5th in most leagues - behind 36 year old Tony Gonzalez career year (so far), Vernon Davis, and Owen Daniels (so far). If both Gronk and Graham remain healthy, I'd wager a hefty amount that BOTH are top3 TE's by season's end. Just look at the guys who are trailing these 2: Scott Chandler? Kyle Rudolph? Heath Miller? Martellus Bennett? Somebody raise your hand if you feel confident these TE's will continue their fast starts.

 

And that adds to Gronk/Graham's value. Sure, Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis have been every week starters in fantasy. But who realistically started Heath Miller all season? Chandler? Rudolph? The other "depth TE's" that owners passed on Gronk & Graham for have produced literally nothing - Witten (1 good game likely from the bench), Hernandez (1 good game then injured), Gates (nothing), Finley (nothing)

 

Gronk is on pace for 74/1000/10 in what has been a disappointing start - marred with injuries (that he's played through) and the absence of Hernandez (which I believe hurts Gronk).

Graham was on pace for 100/1000/12 thru 4 weeks (throwing out week 5 since he left extremely early cuz of injury).

 

Part of what makes these guys great, and potential 1st or 2nd round picks, is that DESPITE those season-long projections, we are discussing how disappointing they've been.

 

For what it's worth, I didn't draft either of these 2 TE's in any of my 3 leagues (although I did keep Gronk as a 3rd keeper in one).

 

you're missing the point. for starters, something like this is not akin to a coin flip. a coin flip requires no thinking, reasoning, its just a 50/50 shot. no variables.

 

no one is laughing in your or anyones face.

 

the fact they are 4th and 5th at this point goes to prove what i'm saying. while solid, they are NOT and likely will not be head and shoulders above any other TE option. Which is the #1 reason people were giving for taking them so high.

 

and its pretty much what they would have had to be to justify such a high pick on a position with such little impact and such vast depth.

 

im not saying you should have waited and taken Gonzo. forget names completely. at the time of drafting I still feel it made more sense to "flip a coin" on a RB. They are simply harder to come by when all is said and done and when you factor in how many will be rostered in your league. even WR....

[Serpent 51]

you're missing the point. for starters, something like this is not akin to a coin flip. a coin flip requires no thinking, reasoning, its just a 50/50 shot. no variables.

 

no one is laughing in your or anyones face.

 

the fact they are 4th and 5th at this point goes to prove what i'm saying. while solid, they are NOT and likely will not be head and shoulders above any other TE option. Which is the #1 reason people were giving for taking them so high.

 

and its pretty much what they would have had to be to justify such a high pick on a position with such little impact and such vast depth.

 

im not saying you should have waited and taken Gonzo. forget names completely. at the time of drafting I still feel it made more sense to "flip a coin" on a RB. They are simply harder to come by when all is said and done and when you factor in how many will be rostered in your league. even WR....

 

I'm sorry but you're not making any sense. As has been pointed out repeatedly, the RBs you could have taken there have busted for the most part. You'd be lucky if at the 9th overall pick you got an RB that is on pace to finish 4th or 5th at the position.

 

Or in your fantasy world did everyone draft Arian Foster in the first round?

[Stewburtx8 67]

I drafted Graham at 2.03 in my 12 team PPR league. That team is 3-2. The losses came early mainly because I had to wait on Ryan Mathews and Darren McFadden has had 2 pretty poor weeks. Other than this past week when Graham got hurt, he's been pretty consistent with 20.5, 20.1, 11.6, and 14.6. Before Week 5, where he clearly got hurt on his first catch and was pretty much non-existent the rest of the game, Graham was #2 overall at TE in PPR league, only trailing the ridiculous start from Tony Gonzalez. I still think Graham will finish as a top 2 TE in PPR leagues this year assuming he stays healthy. There are plenty of other players with similar ADP's that are off to much worse starts (McFadden, Forte, Murray, Stafford).

 

In the IBL I drafted Graham at 1.07. I'm currently 30-5. Albeit I got lucky waiting on QB and getting RG3 as my QB1 in the 8th or 9th round. But I hardly think Graham has hurt me, while many other guys I could of took there would look much worse right now. I just thought Graham was the safest option at the time. I still feel that way. His Week 5 was just fluky with the early ankle injury.

 

That being said, I took Aaron Hernandez in the 5th round of my 10 team PPR league. Even so, that team is 4-1 because I was able to grab Kyle Rudolph later as my "TE2." So as always, it just comes down to how the rest of the players you draft work out for you.

 

My 8 team, deep starting lineup league I'm 3-2 even though I grabbed Tony Gonzalez and Kyle Rudolph late as my 2 starting TE's. All this being said, I don't think you can draw too many conclusions yet about drafting TE early or waiting on TE. Obviously if you got Tony Gonzalez late you SHOULD be in better shape than someone who took Graham or Gronk early. But not everyone was that lucky. Those that waited and took Finley, F.Davis, or Tamme are not in as good of shape.

 

EDIT to ADD: It also helps a lot to have got Matt Ryan in the 4th, 4th, and 6th rounds in 3 of my leagues, and grabbing RG3 in the 8th or 9th round in the IBL. Not to mention being very high on Percy Harvin and grabbing him in 3 leagues in the 3rd or even 4th round.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I'm sorry but you're not making any sense. As has been pointed out repeatedly, the RBs you could have taken there have busted for the most part. You'd be lucky if at the 9th overall pick you got an RB that is on pace to finish 4th or 5th at the position.

 

Or in your fantasy world did everyone draft Arian Foster in the first round?

 

I actually got 8 copies of Arian foster

 

it's probably not worth the time to try and explain what is already pretty clear. yes, plenty of RB's in that area have "busted" as well or just been mediocre. we have already established a dozen times that you need to draft the right players regardless of position.

 

the main point here is that tight end just isn't a premium position. So if getting a top end player is such a "coin flip", why not flip a coin on a position of more value? why not build depth at a position that actually needs it?

 

and it's not just RB... could be WR as well.

 

time and time again I heard "it's ok to leave yourself a little thin at RB or WR because you will have such an overwhelming advantage at tight end each week!"

[mgs316 14]

I figured there were 6 sure thing TE's that I would be happy to have based on where they dropped (TD weighted league):

 

Graham

Gronk

Gonzalez

Hernandez - bust

Gates - bust

Davis

 

I didn't want to roll the dice on the next group:

Gresham - yuck

Pettigrew - yuck

Rudolph - yay

Witten - yuck

Finley - yuck

Tamme - yuck

Bennett - yay

 

Guys not on my radar:

Owens - my bad

Miller - may bad

 

Free agent gold for TD weighted league:

Chandler (current TE since Hernandez is hurt)

 

Sound strategy I guess since it seems like less bustable up top so far. Gates killed a lot of teams.

[chroniciguana 13]

My only strategy going into the draft this year can be summed up in three words. "I want Gronk." Period. No more spot plays at TE. "I want Gronk." No more letting someone else kill me with the guy. "I want Gronk." Got Gronk.

 

A glance at 2011's ADP shows that half the guys drafted in the first two rounds didn't belong there when the final numbers were in. With these odds, why not use a second round pick to take a likely top performer at his position and then focus on the middle rounds where championships are most often won?

 

Right now, Gronk is tied for fourth in TE scoring. Even though he's banged up at the moment, he's just three points off the weekly pace. In Week 5 last year, he scored just three points. In Week 5 this year, he scored just three points. Stuff happens. Meanwhile, two of those middle round RBs I waited on are currently in the top six. Three finished in the top five this week. And that QB I took in the seventh round is currently fourth (had been first) in points.

 

I took Gronk at 2.08. The guy at 2.07 took Matthew Stafford. In fact, the first two rounds are littered with corpses. Gronk ain't really killing nobody.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

My only strategy going into the draft this year can be summed up in three words. "I want Gronk." Period. No more spot plays at TE. "I want Gronk." No more letting someone else kill me with the guy. "I want Gronk." Got Gronk.

 

A glance at 2011's ADP shows that half the guys drafted in the first two rounds didn't belong there when the final numbers were in. With these odds, why not use a second round pick to take a likely top performer at his position and then focus on the middle rounds where championships are most often won?

 

Right now, Gronk is tied for fourth in TE scoring. Even though he's banged up at the moment, he's just three points off the weekly pace. In Week 5 last year, he scored just three points. In Week 5 this year, he scored just three points. Stuff happens. Meanwhile, two of those middle round RBs I waited on are currently in the top six. Three finished in the top five this week. And that QB I took in the seventh round is currently fourth (had been first) in points.

 

I took Gronk at 2.08. The guy at 2.07 took Matthew Stafford. In fact, the first two rounds are littered with corpses. Gronk ain't really killing nobody.

 

He aint killing nobody but he has not been what he was supposed to be. Which was head and shoulders (with graham) above all the other tight ends, giving you a match up advantage each week.

 

again, if everyones goal was to get a solid top 5 tight end with a 1st or 2nd round pick, then that's great, mission accomplished.... But its also Bull.

[parrot 789]

I took Graham at 10, kind of just on a whim more than part of any grand strategy. Would I do it again? I don't know. I do know that he's done as well as Andre Johnson and McFadden, the other guys I was contemplating there.

[tmr8188 2]

I got gronk in a trade from a disgruntled owner before week 4. Until then I was starting kyle rudolph. No real difference but I know when gronk eventually does blowup hes gonna blow the fock up. Which could save me if one of my other starters doesn't show up. I don't count on points from the te position. Anything over 5 I am happy with.

[ff07 2]

took graham 1.11 (out of 12) and am 5-0 with 2nd highest points scored . my league is pretty knowledgable and he was the right pick at the time considering preseason rankings/hunches. the ankle injury is a little concerning but hindsight is always 20/20 and i'd probably take him there again considering who was already off the board