How much of fantasy football is luck?

[iham32 7]

So if you drafted Gore, Eli, Cruz, and Spiller you have more skill than someone who drafted Shady McCoy, Jimmy Graham, or any other underperformers?

 

It's a guess. Yea you'll have a thought that this player will be good this year or this player will suck, but it's all educated guesses. No one KNOWS anything, if they say they did they're lying.

 

My friend knows nothing about ffb, can't tell you who Julio Jones is, and auto drafted his team. He is 6-1. As most said its 80-20 in favor of luck.

[Serpent 51]

There are a lot of people that call or did call themselves "professional" poker players. I'm talking about actual professionals that make a real long term living doing it. Some people may have made a short term profit playing online, but was it really sustainable for them? Chris Moneymaker is not really a professional either. And where did they pull that random 1 in 10,000 figure? That's just stupid. Someone like Phil Ivey is going to win a lot more than he loses based on his skill level over just about anyone else.

 

Isn't Chris Moneymaker a former World Champion? I don't follow poker, I just know my roommate covered the mortgage payment through playing poker, he didn't work for a living. He also covered utilities and cable tv and internet, and ordered PPVs for his sport gambling, which he'd let me watch for free since apparently he made enough off poker to not care.

 

I haven't spoken to the guy for years but last I heard he won some major tournament and had corporate sponsorship.

 

Anyway what are your qualifications?

[Giants Fan 85]

Snagging Bennett off the waiver wire, and playing him despite frr agents like Olsen and Finley that some ppl ranked higher.

 

This is an easy one.

 

A: Eli loves to make all receivers look good. Remember when Boss was on the Giants? Is he still in the NFL now?

 

B: Eli loves to dump it off to the TE

 

AND C: None of my players are Korean.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTqpEJh03fI

 

But I also undersetimated Gangnam Style.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Isn't Chris Moneymaker a former World Champion? I don't follow poker, I just know my roommate covered the mortgage payment through playing poker, he didn't work for a living. He also covered utilities and cable tv and internet, and ordered PPVs for his sport gambling, which he'd let me watch for free since apparently he made enough off poker to not care.

 

I haven't spoken to the guy for years but last I heard he won some major tournament and had corporate sponsorship.

 

Anyway what are your qualifications?

 

 

Chris Moneymaker was a amateur that won a small online satellite tournament for like $40 to go to the Main Event. He was a pretty good recreational player who went on a very good run of cards over 7 days. A lot of luck involved in any one tournament. It started the whole "any one can win" mantra and kicked off the huge poker boom at the time. Since then, I think he's made most of his money through his gaming company, promos/affiliates, appearances, his book, etc.

 

I'm not saying your roommate wasn't profitable or even very profitable. He very well could of been. A lot of people made a lot of money playing online poker. I just think the "1 in 10,000" statement is a dumb one.

 

My qualifications are nothing more than I enjoy playing poker. I'm a recreational player. I paid my rent, utilities, alcohol, food in college playing poker/taking some small time sports bets. Nothing major. Now I'm lucky if I get to play 2-3 times a month.

 

But this is kind of off topic. I just think poker and fantasy sports have some parallels. But I'd say their is a much higher level of skill involved in poker due to the human element and how poker players have a lot more control of the action. Still luck/variance involved, but also a lot of skill in my opinion. I'm sure some people will disagree.

[SexyRexy 60]

look below for my roster...

 

im 3 - 4...

 

question answered

[caliente12 0]

ALOT OF IT IS LUCK, I HAVE THE 2nd HIGHEST SCORE IN THE LEAGUE AND IM 3-4. I have over 860 points in 7 weeks and I still LOST 4 games

[Giants Fan 85]

Do you guys wanna seriously derail this thread and talk about Chris Moneymaker?

 

I think ... there is LESS LUCK involved in fantasy football than there is in poker.

 

And I play a lot of poker.

 

Not a pro ... not yet anyway. Most the "pro" players I know just have nothing better to do and break even, on a good day.

 

And they all ask me for FF advice.

 

Last year a dealer asked me for a sleeper and I said Victor Cruz. Now, they all think I am magic. Whole lotta magic.

[Giants Fan 85]

Can you dig it?

 

[SweetnessWJP 0]

There is a lot of luck in fantasy football, and there's a big reason that no one has really touched on.

 

You are counting on humans to be statistical robots and not humans.

 

In poker, at the very least you can play your hand and play your opponent. In fantasy football, you are at the hands of how that player is doing that day, how is opponent is doing, how the weather is, etc.. No one ever knows why players perform the way they do in certain situations, because they aren't robots. No one plays the same way every single game. Think about when you were a kid playing sports, some games you would just be on, and some games your opponent would have more than you did that day.

 

I can think back to games where Jamal Lewis would play the 32nd ranked Cleveland Browns defense, and he would get 20 yards on 13 carries. Random stuff happens that no one can predict.

 

You can do things to eliminate some luck, like knowing coaching styles and depth charts, but at the end of the day did you really know that Aaron Hernandez was going to drop a touchdown allowing Rob Gronkowski to get his second score? Did you really know that Fred Jackson would get hurt week 1 opening the door to C.J. Spiller? Did you really know Eric Decker was going to trip at the 40 yard line?

 

In the end I do think more knowledgable players will win more than the average fantasy player over a long run of 1,000 teams but it's not enough to notice in short sample sizes.

 

Anyone who says its more skill than luck is full of themselves, or hasn't played very long. Fantasy football is the most unpredictable game to play. That said it's still fun, and you can still gain that extra 10% edge on everyone else if you study.

[Giants Fan 85]

meh ...

 

So, your saying it could be one, or the otter?

[Giants Fan 85]

I killed the deer.

 

Is came up to me as a friend and I had a plasic bag in my hands. Continued to nuzzle, AND yes, he did hafta go to the emerbeny room. Or whatever her name was and I focked her aferwards. I focked her hard too.

 

Ahhhh .... collidge. I used a rubber but still .... she was extra skanky.

[Giants Fan 85]

I focked her brains out.

[steel827 2]

I walked away from the draft feeling like I had a competitive team, that's all I ask for.

 

QB - Stafford

QB - Romo (we start 2 QB's, strange, but whatever)

RB - Charles

RB - Martin

WR - Julio

WR - DJax

WR - Dez

K - Tucker

Def/ST - SF

 

A cast of thousands on my bench. I'm 0-7. Lost 5 times by 3 points or less. I don't know how much skill is involved as I thought I had a decent team. This year has been heaps of fun.

 

Just my two pennies

[jkil22 1]

If it was 95% luck you would be able to randomly insert ANY player and have close to same results as if you had picked your players. Go ahead and try to blindly pick your team from all NFL players vs someone who picks their players based on past output/matchups. I bet the blind pick loses 95%+ of the time

[plasma george 52]

Award half the pot to Total Points !

How many focking times do I have to say it

 

It eliminates the luck involved with head to head matchups

After all ur not really playing head to head on a field

It's just adding up statistics

[megatron's mom 6]

I'm confused.

 

Here we are, on a fantasy football forum - where people come to get inside information, share ideas, analyze every little detail about fantasy football - and everyone is saying the game is all luck?

 

Then why are you here? Why do you play? Why do you (most likely) spend hours upon hours researching players, doing dozens of mock drafts, etc. etc. Why not go into a draft absolutely blind and just flip a coin over who to select?

 

Can you control whether the backup RB that you're playing against punches in 2 garbage-time TD's? Of course not. Can you predict MJD getting hurt on his 2nd carry of the game? Of course not.

 

But there is plenty of skill involved. I watched Victor Cruz last year dominate - and as everyone dismissed it as a 1-year fluke, I saw a player that was a bigger version of Wes Welker. Good straight line speed, a great route runner, and extremely quick - nearly impossible to cover. I drafted him a round early in every league I'm in...and guess what - that was SKILL, not LUCK! (Obviously there are other things that I'm wrong about, just using this as an example).

 

Some people predicted a Sophomore slump for Cam Newton. Others didn't. Some people predicted a big comeback season for Peyton Manning. Others doubted him. Some people invested heavily in RGIII. Others shyed away.

 

That's skill, not luck.

 

Knowledge of players/injuries/teams / schedules can all help but it still comes down to luck. None of that is skill. Sorry but you are actually helping prove the luck argument here.

[uwmalcolm 73]

Knowledge of players/injuries/teams / schedules can all help but it still comes down to luck. None of that is skill. Sorry but you are actually helping prove the luck argument here.

So what's your answer to the original question? Are you saying it's 100% luck? Kmbryant wasn't suggesting that its 100% skill, just that there is definitely some skill involved.

[sperri40 12]

50%.

 

I'm the best team in the league, I played the second best team. We were the 2 highest-scoring teams of the week. Sadly, I was 2nd. Matchup = 25%

 

I lost 112-110. Nearly all of his players ended with zero or one on their yardage totals (ie 360 yds passing, 31 receiving, 40 rushing etc). Most my players ended with 8s or 9s (Brady 259 yds passing - 1 yard form another fantasy point. Foster 98, Gronk 78 etc). There's another 25%

 

The other 50% accounts for the fact that either of us would have crushed any other team in the league.

 

That's neither skill nor luck, that's just your league's scoring system.

 

Enter, decimal scoring...why should I get 0 points for 9 yards of receiving when one more yard is equal to 1 point?

[jgcrawfish 232]

jeebus christ...can somebody please go refill GFIAFP focking meds so he'll shutup?!

[pbev21 2]

It's all luck. Most fantasy teams have good players. But things happen in games that completely affect fantasy scores. A penalty, a tipped pass for an interception, a missed FG, a fumble at the goal line, an injury, bye weeks, a bad match-up, etc... We've all had these things happen to us and they can change the outcome of a fantasy game. Look at what Harbaugh did when he didn't take that safety. Thats 2 points for the SF defense that they could have had. I've had many players get hurt early in a game and not return. In my leagues players get a 5 point bonus for 300yds passing and 100yds rushing and/or receiving. I had Palmer last week and he had 298yds. I've had many RBs have rushing totals in the 90s. No bonus. Those things happen. I beat a guy this week because all his main players were on a bye. I'll take it. You definitely need a lot of luck on your side to win in fantasy.

[stonewall 647]

Bottomline:

 

-If you are winning it's skill, but if you are losing it's (bad) luck.

[pronghorn3 0]

FANTASY FOOTBALL IS LUCK!! ALL you can do is draft players you believe will produce and do your best grabbing talent from the waiver wire, then hope you get lucky.

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

I quit my job three years ago, and support myself and my family on fantasy football earnings each year. I am in three leagues. I pretty much never lose, I'm that good. My draft is always solid, and I hit the WW hard every week... I always start the right player at each position because I am knowledgable. I really don't make mistakes, and always make the right moves.

 

With that said, there is a girl in our 12-team league who is currently 5-2 right now that has both starting RBs on a bye Week 8. She does not know how to add/drop players. I am the Commish of this league. Should I help her, or just say #### it and let her figure it out on her own? That would fall under the "Skill" category, right?

 

Yeah, I am pretty sure this game 100% Skill. I may be 2-5, but I am Great.

[BuschWack 56]

I posted this in another thread and felt it relevant in this one as well. Of course, this only helps in the case of high scoring teams getting unlucky head to head matchups.

 

The cure for fantasy football bad luck

 

A high scoring owner in my ESPN League has this issue and suggested moving to this format. Hopefully the major fantasy football carriers will design a similar system starting next year.

 

MyFantasyLeague.com and RTSports.com have the option to use Victory Points.

 

For a 12 team league it works like this (kinda reminds me of hockey scoring for conference/division standings).

 

+ 2 points = Win

+ 2 points = 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th in total points scored for the week

+ 1 point = 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th in total points scored for the week

zero points = Loss

zero points = 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th in total points scored

[Giants Fan 85]

Actually, it's really important to understand how small your edge is at the poker table. Especially these days. In a Casino, with a rake, that might be enough to make it hard to be profitable once you factor in variance.

 

Funny ... team in sig ... got called out. Lost Jennings, then Benson, now McGahee and Miles Austin. Still, best record in the league. Despite these massive problems, I like my chances. I'm 3 games ahead of the guy that is second in my division with 3 games to go. Anyway, guy in another div calls me out, "He just got lucky with the matchups."

 

I got lucky? I spent over 25% of my entire draft budget on Greg Jennings and held onto him all year. I got lucky?

 

I drafted well. My bench stepped up. I was active on the wire. I have a team that is poised to explode in the playoffs. Knock on wood. I have the best record in the entire league, and my #1 RB cost me $8 in the draft.

 

"Yeah ... it's luck."

 

A fantasy football game, is sort of like a game of stud poker, where all of a sudden the 8 of clubs worries you a lot more than an ace, and cards/players change values as the hand progresses. And hopefully, over time, skill will overcome luck.

[Challenger 72]

jeebus christ...can somebody please go refill GFIAFP focking meds so he'll shutup?!

 

[Giants Fan 85]

Crassic.

[ianmidd 3]

It depends on the type of league you play in. There is a bit more skill involved in a total points league compared to h2h.

 

One of my leagues is a yahoo league and they have the new "recap" feature that gives you some interesting stats about your last matchup.

 

In doing awful in that league, I'm 1-9, but in last weeks recap, it said that if I had played my opponent's schedule this year I would be 7-2.

 

I'm leading the league in pa by a game's worth of points (about 85)

[StrikeForce 11]

Luck is just one QB out of 32, and one player out of what...1440?

 

I mean, he's a great QB and all, but to say he IS fantasy football is a stretch.

[tenaciousb 0]

It's luck when your opponent pulls one out against you. It's skill when you do the same to them.

[Agamemnon 2]

Luck is just one QB out of 32, and one player out of what...1440?

 

I mean, he's a great QB and all, but to say he IS fantasy football is a stretch.

 

Well played!!!

[tts42572 0]

I've always thought fantasy football is a lot like poker in some regards. Granted, I think poker has a lot more skill involved than fantasy football...But I think they are similar in that you have to have some degree of skill to put yourself in a position to get "lucky"....

 

Basically you need to be able to put yourself and you team in a position to get lucky. You need to draft good players....You need to manage bye weeks....You need to look at weekly matchups....I mean ,if you playing guys in your lineup that are playing the 49ers or Bears every single week, you will not be as successful long term as somebody that has guys facing the Saints or Bills every week....

 

You can't control how guys perform on the field....That part is all luck. And you can't control injuries...Although, you can go from history and know which guys have an injury history.

 

You can get by on luck for awhile...But if you just keep running Blaine Gabbert out there as your QB against the 49ers every week, you aren't gonna be "lucky" for very long....

 

I think there is a lot more skill than luck....Just like in poker. It's all about giving yourself the best odds and putting your team in the best position to get "lucky".

[jgcrawfish 232]

It's mostly luck, hell, it may be all luck. I'm 4-7 in a 12 teamer. I've scored exactly 1 pt less on the season than a guy who's 9-2. The difference? Oh, the 40 pts per game average that opponents score vs him than they do vs me. I needed a win this week to maybe make the playoffs, um, facing Brady not only in that league but two others. I'll probably get eliminated from playoffs in 3 leagues due to Brady. Horrible fockin luck.

[Saints1 4]

I always enjoy reading threads like this every year. Of course it's both and probably the percent varies depending on things like head-2-head, number of teams, roster spots and owner activity. For example my 16 yr old son loves fantasy and plays in a money league with myself (10 teamer). Well we added IDP this year well he has lost 2 games because when we added IDP the league settings give 2 points per fumble recovery and lo and behold due to offensive players recovering fumbles he lost 2 close ones! That's another debate but that seems like bad luck to me.

[tts42572 0]

Head to head adds a lot of luck to the equation...

 

I'm in one league that I totally love....We don't do head to head anymore...

 

We take top 8 point scoring teams into playoffs (out of 14)....First week of playoffs, 4 highest scoring teams advance.....Second week, the two highest out of the remaining four advance....Then the two remaining play for finals...

 

It totally takes away all the problems with playing the wrong teams...and you really have nobody to blame but yourself for the points your team scores.

 

It's mostly luck, hell, it may be all luck. I'm 4-7 in a 12 teamer. I've scored exactly 1 pt less on the season than a guy who's 9-2. The difference? Oh, the 40 pts per game average that opponents score vs him than they do vs me. I needed a win this week to maybe make the playoffs, um, facing Brady not only in that league but two others. I'll probably get eliminated from playoffs in 3 leagues due to Brady. Horrible fockin luck.

[tanatastic 2,061]

It's mostly luck Especially in a league where everyone is at least competent.

 

If u play with girls, clueless coworkers, or people that just don't know anything, yes your draft basics and lineup skills will count for a lot. But in a league where all members know their basics (draft rbs, wait on K, D etc) its about 90-95% luck. The 10% of skill is just awareness picking up FA and such. Lineup decisions are just pot shots tho.

[RyLaughlin 0]

The only time luck is involved IMO is when injuries occur. Obviously, injury status of players are relatively unknown during draft time, and when they do add up even if they're not affecting your main players, injuries can poison any team.

 

Probably 3 or 4 times this year my bench accumulated 0 points as a whole because they were all injured and/or on bye weeks along with what once was a backup QB spot. When starters had a tough matchup, I had nobody to go to and often lost those weeks.

 

This team is 6-5, 3rd in points

QB: RGIII

WR: Nicks

WR: Austin

WR: Rice

RB: Foster

RB: Peterson

TE: Hernandez

W/R: Forte

DEF: Seattle

K: Tynes

Amendola

James Jones

Mendenhall

Parmele

Tate

Meyers

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Amen. I knew most people on this board would say it's "mostly skill". That's complete and utter BS. Thank you for being realistic.

 

you "knew most people would say" its skill and you confirmed that after like 7 posts?

 

 

I think you can break it down. there is a lot more luck than I think a lot of people wan't to admit, especially those that put a lot of time into it. I've often heard FF compared to Poker by people on these boards and that is crazy. (side note: there is more luck involved in poker than die hard poker nerds wan't to admit as well)

 

draft prep = skill

pinpointing breakout players and guys to avoid = skill

the draft itself is also skill. navigating the draft, knowing other owners tendencies, starting runs and not getting on the wrong end of them, etc etc.

In season roster management = skill. starting the right players, waiver wire pickups and all that. Trading as well.

 

Everything else is luck. much of what the players do on the field is luck. The random guy going off on you is luck or your perfectly picked studs with good match ups laying an egg. The fact that you might not play any opponents when they have bye week issues.... or you might play a guy every week that has several byes. Fantasy scheduling is all luck.

Injuries are luck

[theADDICT 0]

it feels like it's about 33% luck, 67% skill. usually people that draft the best and make the right waiver pickups and start the best option yield the best records but say there are 6 teams that make your leagues playoffs, usually about 2 of them have worse looking teams on paper than 2 that couldn't catch a break all year that miss the playoffs

[tanatastic 2,061]

you "knew most people would say" its skill and you confirmed that after like 7 posts?

 

 

I think you can break it down. there is a lot more luck than I think a lot of people wan't to admit, especially those that put a lot of time into it. I've often heard FF compared to Poker by people on these boards and that is crazy. (side note: there is more luck involved in poker than die hard poker nerds wan't to admit as well)

 

draft prep = skill

pinpointing breakout players and guys to avoid = skill

the draft itself is also skill. navigating the draft, knowing other owners tendencies, starting runs and not getting on the wrong end of them, etc etc.

In season roster management = skill. starting the right players, waiver wire pickups and all that. Trading as well.

 

Everything else is luck. much of what the players do on the field is luck. The random guy going off on you is luck or your perfectly picked studs with good match ups laying an egg. The fact that you might not play any opponents when they have bye week issues.... or you might play a guy every week that has several byes. Fantasy scheduling is all luck.

Injuries are luck

 

Agree but I'd say the "pinpointing breakout players/avoids" is also almost all luck. We miss and hit all the time and it's just educated guesswork.

 

I saw Alfred Morris was the new guy on draft day and drafted him last pick. Skill. He had a few good games. Luck. I, knowing the rats tendency to screw rb owners, traded Morris for Larry fitz. Skill. Fits hasn't panned out as much as I'd hoped while Morris is the magical bellcow for shanny. Luck.