Looking Ahead to Re-Drafts 2014 (12/4/13): First Four Rounds

[Fumbleweed 426]

This is something I like to post on site every December and then update it each week for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2014 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices.

Round One:

1. Jamaal Charles
2. Adrian Peterson
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Matt Forte
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. Peyton Manning
8. Jimmy Graham
9. Rob Gronkowski
10. Drew Brees
11. Alfred Morris
12. DeMaryius Thomas

Round Two:

13. Eddie Lacy
14. Aaron Rodgers
15. Knowshon Moreno
16. Zac Stacy
17. Matthew Stafford
18. A.J. Green
19. Reggie Bush
20. Dez Bryant
21. Le'Veon Bell
22. Josh Gordon
23. Julio Jones
24. Chris Johnson

Round Three:

25. Brandon Marshall
26. Giovani Bernard
27. Cam Newton
28. Arian Foster
29. DeMarco Murray
30. Russell Wilson
31. Doug Martin
32. Alshon Jeffery
33. Andre Johnson
34. Vernon Davis
35. Antonio Brown
36. Jordy Nelson

Round Four:

37. C.J. Spiller
38. Julius Thomas
39. DeSean Jackson
40. Tom Brady
41. Ray Rice
42. Maurice Jones-Drew
43. Eric Decker
44. Larry Fitzgerald
45. Matt Ryan
46. Vincent Jackson
47. Philip Rivers
48. Frank Gore

Initial thoughts?

 

[cheesesteaks 0]

Overall I think your list looks good. I would move Brady, Antonio Brown and Dez Bryant slightly higher and lower Stafford, CJ0K, Le'Veon Bell, Vernon Davis. Also Julio should be above Gordon because of better QB. RBs will be hard to gauge next year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'd move Reggie ahead of Moreno.

[captainhefe 0]

I may have Randall Cobb in that last round over Decker or VJ, assuming he's healthy of course.

[Showboat 145]

I don't think that it is likely that Lynch goes that high next year. Even if he gets through all the DUI stuff (that's supposed to finally be resolved this off-season), he is nearing the RB "cliff". The Seahawks may decide to cut him loose if it is cap-friendly (not exactly sure of his contract status) and at the very least, I'd expect him to start losing touches to Michael.

 

Moreno is another guy that I just don't see resuming the role he had this year. If Ball continues to improve with blitz pick-up and ball-security, I can see him assuming the lead back position with Moreno becoming the change-of-pace back.

[BufordT 371]

I would put Peyton Manning as number 1 overall at this point. In this age of fantasy football, if a QB is a shoe-in for 40+ total TD's which I believe Manning is, then I would gladly take him #1 overall. The risk, of course, would be his age and at what point does he start to break down.

[AnaheimRams 28]

Some thoughts...

 

Josh Gordon I think is too low. His ADP will be around 10 places higher (12ish)... not that I would take him there with his affinity for the weed... but if he continues anywhere near his current production... that many slots behind C.J. is just not gonna happen.

 

Reggie Bush I think is too high... I see Bell continuing to progress in the offense through the rest of the season and hurting his value come draft time.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Gio Bernard go a lot higher than you have him as well... fully expect him to be the three down starter by next August.

 

Pretty damn good work overall.

[idiotec 31]

If spiller drops to the 4th he'll be a steal. He hasn't been healthy all year, I see a big rebound.

 

Doug Martin similar thoughts.

 

Moreno will be over drafted next year, Ball is starting to look good.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Good thoughts so far. With respect to Moreno, I just think he is the back that Peyton trusts. And whoever Peyton trusts will get the most touches. Moreno's value is tied to Manning continuing to be there and continuing to be productive.

[blackhawks 5]

Well.....now that I am out of the playoffs (faced j. Charles this week), I am wondering who the top players at each position will be next yr. What order would you put them in?

Will injured players be back to form or better next yr(ie...julio jones).

Kinda hard to type on my phone so I will post my list when I get home. Curious as to what everyone thinks looking forward.

[MaineVigorish 7]

Already counting down to pre-season...

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

QBs

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Foles

Stafford/Cam

 

RBs

Charles

McCoy

Peterson

Forte

Lacy

 

WRs

Calvin

Gordon

AJ

Dez

Nelson

[Upper Class Trash 67]

I think a LOT of players will be seriously undervalued heading into next season. Julio is a prime example. Fantasy owners have short memories and it would not shock me if Julio drops tot he 6th or 7th WR taken.

 

My questions:

 

What round does Josh Gordon go in and at what WR ranking?

When does LaVeon Bell and Zac Stacy get drafted in a PPR format?

Will you draft Justin Blackmon?

 

My undervalued team for next season:

Kaepernick - Has looked like a different QB with Crabtree in the lineup. His stats are still subpar, but he will be a bargain next offseason.

Justin Hunter - Looking like the real thing in TN. I'm keeping him on my 'buy now' list.

Tyler Eiffert - If Cincy lets Gresham walk after the season, his targets effectively double in 2014.

Doug Martin - He may slide to the 2nd round. I'll gamble on him in the second.

Robert Woods - A full offseason with Manuel and he will be a WR3 at a WR5 price

Kenny Stills - Either Colston or Moore will be a salary cap casualty. Likely Moore.

Mike Wallace - Has quietly put together a string of good games, but nobody is noticing......

Cleveland RB - Whoever it turns out to be will have some value

Arian Foster - Nobody is going to take him early. Could slip to the middle of the second. If healthy, that's a helluva steal. He's basically had a year off at that point.

Ace Sanders - If Blackmon is released, which is possible, Sanders will get first crack to take his spot.

Terrance Williams - Dallas would be wise to cut Miles. He's garbage.

Reuben Randle - The Giants aren't going to sign Nicks. Randle is more explosive anyway.

Atlanta TE - I don't think it will be Levine T. He doesn't have the "it" factor. They may draft another TE

Mike Williams - Tampa misses him and some people have forgotten him.

Mike Floyd - He has looked pretty good and people will still worry about Fitz being across from him.

 

I think this team can be had with some later picks. I didn't want to put the obvious guys here, like Jefferies or Patterson.

[RepoPatrol 14]

I think the list above is pretty accurate. After having Stafford and Johnson fall on their faces the last 2 weeks I would probably be hestitant to pick them up again. Then again Schwartz will probably be gone as the coach as he should be. Only god knows why he didn't call the timeout before the Ravens last FG. Let 45 seconds run off the clock leaving them with 48 seconds. Don'tt hink they ever did use any of their timeouts. i think Schwartz has blown several games this year for them and he needs to go for these guys to reach their full potential.

[R8RMick 242]

Nice hot stove material but all academic sans off season acquisitions and drafts.

[Mike FF Today 608]

I would flip-flop Le'Veon Bell and Zac Stacy in Fumbleweed's original list. Bell is proving to be a better receiver and should be one of the best volume-based RBs in the league next season, should he stay healthy.

[The Hood 9]

I would flip-flop Le'Veon Bell and Zac Stacy in Fumbleweed's original list. Bell is proving to be a better receiver and should be one of the best volume-based RBs in the league next season, should he stay healthy.

Agreed. He looks pretty good. Making most of it out of nothing with Pitt's horrible O-line. If they ever find a way to upgrade the line in the offseason he could really explode. PPR bump as well.......only Charles, Forte, Woodhead,Veeren and the Saints duo seeing more passes than him per game.

[snatchit 108]

Demarco Murray should be a 1st rounder

[snatchit 108]

they will figure out they need to feed him. He has a league high 5.5 ypc. Looks like he may have his injury woes behind him. Hell all RB's get hurt at some point. Dallas Oline will have another year under their belt and be much better. In the last 2 games Murray had 100 yards in the 1st quarter then they shut him down for some stupid reason. They wont continue that BS. He also has 8 TD's so far this year.

[blackhawks 5]

QBs

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Foles

Stafford/Cam

 

RBs

Charles

McCoy

Peterson

Forte

Lacy

 

WRs

Calvin

Gordon

AJ

Dez

Nelson

Pretty good list.Almost what i would have done minus a couple changes.

 

QB

 

I dont know if i would put Foles that high just yet.I would bump Cam up to his spot and follow that up with Russel Wilson with Foles closely behind him.Stafford is to much of a choke artist for my liking.To many dumb INT's.I dont know if its actually him or if its all a by product of the dumb HC.With the weapons he has,he should be killing it.I know real life doesnt equate to fantasy,but did you guys see the game last night? Brutal.

 

RB

 

Good list

 

WR

 

I think i would put Julio Jones in place of Nelson.Barring the injury does anyone think he wouldnt have put up monster #'s??I mean in the 5 games he played in he had 41-580-2.Well on his way to a 1000yd season.TD's obviously couldve been better but who knows?

[DaBeerz 88]

Just gonna look at round 1.

 

Round One:

1. Jamaal Charles; Good production, probably overrated due to 1 huge game in the playoffs.
2. Adrian Peterson: How bad is the foot injury? Will still be a top 3 RB.
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Calvin Johnson: No way he goes this high based on this year's production, he dropped off in the playoffs.
5. Matt Forte
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. Peyton Manning
8. Jimmy Graham
9. Rob Gronkowski: Depends on injury report, pretty risky for a 1st round pick
10. Drew Brees: Ahead of Aaron Rodgers? If Rodgers if healthy, I'd take him over Brees.
11. Alfred Morris
12. DeMaryius Thomas

[krusi123 9]

Would knock down Morris a couple notches.

I would move Stacy and Lacy in front of Morris.

Drop down Reggie Bush also - that dude is made of glass(I know, he is "old"), and Bell will get more carries next year.

I would take Foles, Romo, and Brady over Stafford next year.

[DaBeerz 88]

I think a LOT of players will be seriously undervalued heading into next season. Julio is a prime example. Fantasy owners have short memories and it would not shock me if Julio drops tot he 6th or 7th WR taken.

 

My questions:

 

What round does Josh Gordon go in and at what WR ranking?

When does LaVeon Bell and Zac Stacy get drafted in a PPR format?

Will you draft Justin Blackmon?

 

My undervalued team for next season:

Kaepernick - Has looked like a different QB with Crabtree in the lineup. His stats are still subpar, but he will be a bargain next offseason.

Justin Hunter - Looking like the real thing in TN. I'm keeping him on my 'buy now' list.

Tyler Eiffert - If Cincy lets Gresham walk after the season, his targets effectively double in 2014.

Doug Martin - He may slide to the 2nd round. I'll gamble on him in the second.

Robert Woods - A full offseason with Manuel and he will be a WR3 at a WR5 price

Kenny Stills - Either Colston or Moore will be a salary cap casualty. Likely Moore.

Mike Wallace - Has quietly put together a string of good games, but nobody is noticing......

Cleveland RB - Whoever it turns out to be will have some value

Arian Foster - Nobody is going to take him early. Could slip to the middle of the second. If healthy, that's a helluva steal. He's basically had a year off at that point.

Ace Sanders - If Blackmon is released, which is possible, Sanders will get first crack to take his spot.

Terrance Williams - Dallas would be wise to cut Miles. He's garbage.

Reuben Randle - The Giants aren't going to sign Nicks. Randle is more explosive anyway.

Atlanta TE - I don't think it will be Levine T. He doesn't have the "it" factor. They may draft another TE

Mike Williams - Tampa misses him and some people have forgotten him.

Mike Floyd - He has looked pretty good and people will still worry about Fitz being across from him.

 

I think this team can be had with some later picks. I didn't want to put the obvious guys here, like Jefferies or Patterson.

 

I like these underrated picks, you should repost a more extensive list closer to the draft time in the summer and tag me in your thread. Agreed, FF owners overvalue recent production (Example RG3 went at 9th pick, first round in my league, although most owners knew he had sophomore slump written all over him).

[jjg 3]

How is Alfred Morris in the first round?

[DrG 94]

I would add Charles Clay to that under-rated group. I think Miami will owe it to itself to get him a little more involved both as a TE/WR and a few touches out of the H-back.

 

Vareen might be another guy that slips a little, but he's got a better chance of being what Sproles was 2 years ago and maybe then some, than Sproles.

[DaBeerz 88]

I would add Charles Clay to that under-rated group. I think Miami will owe it to itself to get him a little more involved both as a TE/WR and a few touches out of the H-back.

 

Vareen might be another guy that slips a little, but he's got a better chance of being what Sproles was 2 years ago and maybe then some, than Sproles.

 

Vereen didn't do anything with his chances when Ridley was out, and he's not worth anything but a late round pick. He's probably ww bait at best in most leagues he'll go undrafted.

 

Charles Clay has been up and down this season, he's worth a late-middle round pick, but he's actually been very inconsistent this season. He's had 3 games with 20+ points, however he's also had 9 games with less than 10 points...and 7 of those ten were below 5 point games. Again, I think he will probably go undrafted in a lot of leagues until owners see how he starts performing early in the season.