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dave32

Round 2 running backs? And beyond I suppose..

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So I'm feeling pretty good about the 1st round RBs- AD, Charles, Shady, Beast Mode, Lacy, Forte, and I'm even higher on Foster than most and am completely okay with taking him in the first.

 

After that though, every back has question marks. Here's how I rank them(in the order that they appear), and I am interested to see if anyone is completely confident in any of these guys and why. Respond with who you are most confident in.

 

Demarco Murray

 

Put up really good numbers, especially down the stretch last year when they were feeding him the ball. Shined in the fantasy playoffs and in most fantasy championships. I have him as my top ranked back after Foster, but there's still concerns. Obviously he has a history of getting injured, plus there are a ton of backs on the 'boys looking to get touches or even steal the starting gig- Lance Dunbar, Joseph Randle, and they signed Ryan Williams. Easily the best available after the top 7 go, though.

 

Alfred Morris

 

On the bright side, the Shanahans are gone and can no longer troll us. The flip side of that is that with a new regime maybe him and Helu become more of a true RBBC. I hope not, but even if Helu remains mostly a backup, Morris is not gonna be a superstar. He'll be solid but that's the most you can ask of him.

 

Montee Ball

 

Remember whenever everyone thought he would be the go-to guy for the Broncos LAST year? Well that bait and switch has everyone a little bit weary for 2014. He should be the guy though. Right? RIGHT?! You never know with the Broncos though, and if you want him you're going to have to grab him in the middle 2nd at the latest.

 

Le'Veon Bell

 

Was a beast last year as a rookie. Had an injury the first 3 weeks, but once he got in there he was a stud, and from week 7 to the end of the year his lowest point output was in week 14 with 7. The only problem is that the Steelers signed LeGarrette Blount (creating "Le Backfield"), who could potentially become the "goal line back" when Bell got all those touches last year. They also drafted Dri Archer who could serve as a Woodhead/Sproles type back and steal some touches as well. Still worth a 2nd round pick, especially with who's left after this, but don't expect the same numbers as last year.

 

Zac Stacy

 

Same situation as Bell in that he was a beast last year but then they went and drafted Tre Mason, presumably for no reason other than to make Fantasy players paranoid now. Well, it worked. Not only that but looking at Stacy's numbers from last year he wasn't as good as we all remember. I have a feeling that he'll maintain the lead spot for now(he'll yield a few touches, and could certainly lose the job to injury), but I just don't think he can be consistent enough over a whole season to go any higher than late 2nd round.

 

Andre Ellington

 

The flavor of the week after Arians claims he would 25 touches a game, which is basically impossible because no other RB even averaged 23 last year(Shady led the way averaging 22.8 touches/game). Regardless, in this day and age of the RBBC, it's always nice to hear a coach call a guy THE guy. Even though we're all weary after the Bills HC said he would "run (Spiller) until he pukes", Fred Jackson had a track record, where the only people battling Ellington for touches are Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor. Dwyer could maaaaybe steal some goal line touches, but I don't buy it. Tough division to be a RB in though.

 

Reggie Bush

 

I was super high on him last year after watching him still be a beast facing 8-9 man boxes in Miami, but it's impossible for him to stay healthy the whole time, and the emergence of Joique Bell led to a RBBC down the stretch. It will still be a RBBC heading into this season, but Bush is still the main guy. Bell is an absolutely must handcuff though because if either of them gets hurt, the other turns into a guy who is getting all the touches and TDs, which could be a top 5 back. Not worthy of a 2nd rounder, but worth it in the early 3rd where you start to scrape the bottom of the barrel for decent starters.

 

Chris Johnson aka CJ2K

 

Absolutely no clue how he'll do in New York. No clue how much time he'll get with Ivory, Powell, and Alex Green in the mix as well. No clue how their offense will be in general. Probably worth a 3rd rounder with the best case scenarios that are possible for him, but too many variables to justify being taken any higher.

 

Ryan Matthews

 

Was quietly a beast last year, finishing in the top 10 in ESPN standard scoring for RBs. Week 10 on he only had one showing with less than 10 points, and that was a week that he had 9 points. The only problem is that 2013 was a rarity for him to not have any injuries and that Danny Woodhead steals almost half the snaps and somehow also steals some goal line carries? Other than that, he's great, but the injury risk plus RBBC keeps him from being taken high.

 

Giovani Bernard

 

He's an avoid-at-all costs player for me. He'll go either in the 2nd or 3rd at the latest, so I'll slot him in here because he'll definitely be taken before the rest of the RBs still available at this point. But he reminds me exactly of the Bills RB situation last year, where for whatever reason everyone thought Spiller would be the guy and all forgot Fred Jackson was still around. I think the Law Firm still gets a good amount of snaps, and the Bengals also took a running back in the draft in Jeremy Hill for no other reason than to annoy fantasy owners. It worked. Feel free to take him in a draft, if I'm in your league I will be glad you did.

 

Frank Gore

 

Was captain consistency in the first half of the year, rewarding everyone who trusted in ol' reliable in the 4th round or wherever he was falling to. The 2nd half of the year teams tended to force SF to throw it, although he did have a decent run in the fantasy football playoffs last year (weeks 14-16 he ran for 110, 86, and 97 yards, although only 1 TD during that stretch). He's as safe as they come but there's just so much other talent on the roster- Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, Marcus Lattimore, and of course newly acquired Carlos Hyde. Who knows who would step up if Gore either stumbled or got hurt, so not only do you have to worry about all those backups, good luck picking the right handcuff.

 

Ben Tate

 

Late 3rd, early fourth? I guess? Not a huge fan, but he's definitely the starter there and they have a pretty good O-Line. But who the heck is gonna be scared of the Browns air attack without Gordon? I dunno, he's not worth it until probably the late 4th, but someone will probably scoop him up before then.

 

Fred Jackson/CJ Spiller

 

Another team that you can't be too scared of their air attack. If you take one, you have to take the other, and they BOTH will require high picks. If you take Fred (who was a top 10 RB somehow last year) in the 4th you gotta take CJ in the 5th. Definitely not ideal, and then you are in the crappy position of kinda hoping that one of them gets hurt so you can start the other in confidence.

 

Knowshon Moreno

 

Nope. Nuh uh. No way. Not touching it. That O-Line is trash and the Lamar Miller/Daniel Thomas RBBC was annoying enough BEFORE knowshon signed. At this point you're just drafting a lottery ticket if you still need a starter.

 

 

What do you think, am I missing something here? Kinda forces you to think about going RB in at least 2 of the first 3 rounds.

 

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I've messed around in a few mocks this past week and the RB situation is downright scary.

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I've messed around in a few mocks this past week and the RB situation is downright scary.

Same here. I'm not a big RB / RB proponent, but it seems like a sound move this year. There's a couple of bargain types late that make good number threes (J. Bell, Woodhead, etc) but the starters as slim picking by the late 2nd / early 3rd.

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So I'm feeling pretty good about the 1st round RBs- AD, Charles, Shady, Beast Mode, Lacy, Forte, and I'm even higher on Foster than most and am completely okay with taking him in the first.

 

After that though, every back has question marks. Here's how I rank them(in the order that they appear), and I am interested to see if anyone is completely confident in any of these guys and why. Respond with who you are most confident in.

 

Demarco Murray

 

Put up really good numbers, especially down the stretch last year when they were feeding him the ball. Shined in the fantasy playoffs and in most fantasy championships. I have him as my top ranked back after Foster, but there's still concerns. Obviously he has a history of getting injured, plus there are a ton of backs on the 'boys looking to get touches or even steal the starting gig- Lance Dunbar, Joseph Randle, and they signed Ryan Williams. Easily the best available after the top 7 go, though.

 

Alfred Morris

 

On the bright side, the Shanahans are gone and can no longer troll us. The flip side of that is that with a new regime maybe him and Helu become more of a true RBBC. I hope not, but even if Helu remains mostly a backup, Morris is not gonna be a superstar. He'll be solid but that's the most you can ask of him.

 

Montee Ball

 

Remember whenever everyone thought he would be the go-to guy for the Broncos LAST year? Well that bait and switch has everyone a little bit weary for 2014. He should be the guy though. Right? RIGHT?! You never know with the Broncos though, and if you want him you're going to have to grab him in the middle 2nd at the latest.

 

Le'Veon Bell

 

Was a beast last year as a rookie. Had an injury the first 3 weeks, but once he got in there he was a stud, and from week 7 to the end of the year his lowest point output was in week 14 with 7. The only problem is that the Steelers signed LeGarrette Blount (creating "Le Backfield"), who could potentially become the "goal line back" when Bell got all those touches last year. They also drafted Dri Archer who could serve as a Woodhead/Sproles type back and steal some touches as well. Still worth a 2nd round pick, especially with who's left after this, but don't expect the same numbers as last year.

 

Zac Stacy

 

Same situation as Bell in that he was a beast last year but then they went and drafted Tre Mason, presumably for no reason other than to make Fantasy players paranoid now. Well, it worked. Not only that but looking at Stacy's numbers from last year he wasn't as good as we all remember. I have a feeling that he'll maintain the lead spot for now(he'll yield a few touches, and could certainly lose the job to injury), but I just don't think he can be consistent enough over a whole season to go any higher than late 2nd round.

 

Andre Ellington

 

The flavor of the week after Arians claims he would 25 touches a game, which is basically impossible because no other RB even averaged 23 last year(Shady led the way averaging 22.8 touches/game). Regardless, in this day and age of the RBBC, it's always nice to hear a coach call a guy THE guy. Even though we're all weary after the Bills HC said he would "run (Spiller) until he pukes", Fred Jackson had a track record, where the only people battling Ellington for touches are Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor. Dwyer could maaaaybe steal some goal line touches, but I don't buy it. Tough division to be a RB in though.

 

Reggie Bush

 

I was super high on him last year after watching him still be a beast facing 8-9 man boxes in Miami, but it's impossible for him to stay healthy the whole time, and the emergence of Joique Bell led to a RBBC down the stretch. It will still be a RBBC heading into this season, but Bush is still the main guy. Bell is an absolutely must handcuff though because if either of them gets hurt, the other turns into a guy who is getting all the touches and TDs, which could be a top 5 back. Not worthy of a 2nd rounder, but worth it in the early 3rd where you start to scrape the bottom of the barrel for decent starters.

 

Chris Johnson aka CJ2K

 

Absolutely no clue how he'll do in New York. No clue how much time he'll get with Ivory, Powell, and Alex Green in the mix as well. No clue how their offense will be in general. Probably worth a 3rd rounder with the best case scenarios that are possible for him, but too many variables to justify being taken any higher.

 

Ryan Matthews

 

Was quietly a beast last year, finishing in the top 10 in ESPN standard scoring for RBs. Week 10 on he only had one showing with less than 10 points, and that was a week that he had 9 points. The only problem is that 2013 was a rarity for him to not have any injuries and that Danny Woodhead steals almost half the snaps and somehow also steals some goal line carries? Other than that, he's great, but the injury risk plus RBBC keeps him from being taken high.

 

Giovani Bernard

 

He's an avoid-at-all costs player for me. He'll go either in the 2nd or 3rd at the latest, so I'll slot him in here because he'll definitely be taken before the rest of the RBs still available at this point. But he reminds me exactly of the Bills RB situation last year, where for whatever reason everyone thought Spiller would be the guy and all forgot Fred Jackson was still around. I think the Law Firm still gets a good amount of snaps, and the Bengals also took a running back in the draft in Jeremy Hill for no other reason than to annoy fantasy owners. It worked. Feel free to take him in a draft, if I'm in your league I will be glad you did.

 

Frank Gore

 

Was captain consistency in the first half of the year, rewarding everyone who trusted in ol' reliable in the 4th round or wherever he was falling to. The 2nd half of the year teams tended to force SF to throw it, although he did have a decent run in the fantasy football playoffs last year (weeks 14-16 he ran for 110, 86, and 97 yards, although only 1 TD during that stretch). He's as safe as they come but there's just so much other talent on the roster- Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, Marcus Lattimore, and of course newly acquired Carlos Hyde. Who knows who would step up if Gore either stumbled or got hurt, so not only do you have to worry about all those backups, good luck picking the right handcuff.

 

Ben Tate

 

Late 3rd, early fourth? I guess? Not a huge fan, but he's definitely the starter there and they have a pretty good O-Line. But who the heck is gonna be scared of the Browns air attack without Gordon? I dunno, he's not worth it until probably the late 4th, but someone will probably scoop him up before then.

 

Fred Jackson/CJ Spiller

 

Another team that you can't be too scared of their air attack. If you take one, you have to take the other, and they BOTH will require high picks. If you take Fred (who was a top 10 RB somehow last year) in the 4th you gotta take CJ in the 5th. Definitely not ideal, and then you are in the crappy position of kinda hoping that one of them gets hurt so you can start the other in confidence.

 

Knowshon Moreno

 

Nope. Nuh uh. No way. Not touching it. That O-Line is trash and the Lamar Miller/Daniel Thomas RBBC was annoying enough BEFORE knowshon signed. At this point you're just drafting a lottery ticket if you still need a starter.

 

 

What do you think, am I missing something here? Kinda forces you to think about going RB in at least 2 of the first 3 rounds.

 

From the list you have ppr

 

1 Bell

2 Ball

3 Murray

4 Bush

5 Bernard

 

That would be my top five at this time from our list . Thank you for the list . God Bless

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Good list and excellent subject. Here is how I would rank them with a right up on some.

 

Tier 1

 

Montee Ball- highest ceiling in the group. Could be a top 5 RB in that offense. Even in timeshare still a nice spot.

 

DeMarco Murray- good OL and offense. Plus receiver and not worried about backups. I am worried about durability.

 

 

Tier 2

 

Gio- pedigree and good offense that wants to run. Not worried about Law-Farm. Would handcuff with Hill.

 

L Bell- might be one spot too low but think Blount could steal TDs

 

Arrington- top 10 high upside with risk

 

Stacy- a little worried that he is a volume runner that might lose carries

 

Tier 3

 

Morris- I love his running style but Gruden wants to pass too much. Big worries that Helu gets a lot of work.

 

Ben Tate- I like that he is set up to get a ton of carries. Might not be able to handle them. Would get his backup for sure.

 

Rashad Jennings- This is someone I'm really interested in. I think he is talented and in the right spot. Should be a 3 down back.

 

CJ Spiller- has the upside but touch concerns.

 

Reggie Bush- see above.

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I did not forget Doug Martin and Trent Richardson because they are terrible. Do you really wanna be the guy who drafts Trent Richardson? Doug Martin didn't do crap last year before he got injured, then all of a sudden his backups are superstars? I'll admit I should have included him on my list just because SOMEONE will take him in the 2nd, but that's just terrible value in the 2nd round with so much other great talent available.

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in ppr formats you need to have Vereen on here. On a point per game basis he was top 12 last year. id take him over half the guys you have listed.

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I did not forget Doug Martin and Trent Richardson because they are terrible. Do you really wanna be the guy who drafts Trent Richardson? Doug Martin didn't do crap last year before he got injured, then all of a sudden his backups are superstars? I'll admit I should have included him on my list just because SOMEONE will take him in the 2nd, but that's just terrible value in the 2nd round with so much other great talent available.

 

 

You are wrong on Doug Martin. He went over 100 total yards in 3/5 full games he played. In 3 of those games he faced top 10 rushing defenses. Two of those games against top 10 rushing D's came with a rookie QB starting his first 2 games.

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I did not forget Doug Martin and Trent Richardson because they are terrible. Do you really wanna be the guy who drafts Trent Richardson? Doug Martin didn't do crap last year before he got injured, then all of a sudden his backups are superstars? I'll admit I should have included him on my list just because SOMEONE will take him in the 2nd, but that's just terrible value in the 2nd round with so much other great talent available.

 

In terms of raw ability and running talent, I'd put Martin above any back outside the top 6. He'll go in the 2nd round this year. The 1st next year. I agree with you on Richardson.

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I think the Lions with a new O coordinator are going to use Joique Bell more. Reggie Bush may be used like he was used in New Orleans. ..3rd down guy. I'd watch this in preseason to see if I'm right...

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You are wrong on Doug Martin. He went over 100 total yards in 3/5 full games he played. In 3 of those games he faced top 10 rushing defenses. Two of those games against top 10 rushing D's came with a rookie QB starting his first 2 games.

 

 

In terms of raw ability and running talent, I'd put Martin above any back outside the top 6. He'll go in the 2nd round this year. The 1st next year. I agree with you on Richardson.

 

I like the responses, that is what I was looking for in making this post. That said, I disagree with both of you. Firstly, someone just posted about a RBBC in Tampa, which shouldn't be surprising considering how good his backups played last year. Secondly, Doug Martin had a 3.6 ypc last year and I don't buy the good defense/rookie QB thing as Mike James put up 158 on Seattle with the same line and QB.

 

He could be very good this year due to their improved passing game. I will take back the "terrible" part of that comment. I'm just saying the risk isn't worth where he's being mocked to right now. If this RBBC thing deflates his value to where you can grab in the 4th? Maybe.

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I like the responses, that is what I was looking for in making this post. That said, I disagree with both of you. Firstly, someone just posted about a RBBC in Tampa, which shouldn't be surprising considering how good his backups played last year. Secondly, Doug Martin had a 3.6 ypc last year and I don't buy the good defense/rookie QB thing as Mike James put up 158 on Seattle with the same line and QB.

 

He could be very good this year due to their improved passing game. I will take back the "terrible" part of that comment. I'm just saying the risk isn't worth where he's being mocked to right now. If this RBBC thing deflates his value to where you can grab in the 4th? Maybe.

No question about what you just said . I agree with our statement

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The whole league is going to RBBC. Even Lynch and Peterson are going to lose carries this year. The simple fact is that Doug Martin is far more talented than anyone else in Tampa. Personally, I think he's one of the more talented pure runners in the NFL. His vision is amazing. As a result, I think he'll get the money looks in what should be a pretty good offense. LIke I said, don't take him in the top 6 ahead of Forte, Charles, Peterson, etc., but among that 2nd tier, I like him a lot.

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remember what they said about him and it hasn't changed.... he plays like a young Ray Rice. Gotta love that !

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Dave32 you asked for other's thoughts and then you disagree with them. You should have asked for confirming opinions only. Martin posted damn near 2K total yards in his rookie season, is now finally healthy and Lovie gets off the bus running. Doug will be fresh all season long, and that's going to mean good things for him.

 

I'd take Martin before Spiller, Gore, Tate, CJNYK, Mathews or Moreno for whatever that's worth :)

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i called a down season for Martin last year and pre injury, he was having a down season.

 

i like him better this year. i think expectations will match production where as last year expectations were too high off a few big games skewing the stats. He would top any back listed for me with the exception of maybe Ball simply due to circumstance.

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Demarco Murray

 

Put up really good numbers, especially down the stretch last year when they were feeding him the ball. Shined in the fantasy playoffs and in most fantasy championships. I have him as my top ranked back after Foster, but there's still concerns. Obviously he has a history of getting injured, plus there are a ton of backs on the 'boys looking to get touches or even steal the starting gig- Lance Dunbar, Joseph Randle, and they signed Ryan Williams. Easily the best available after the top 7 go, though.

 

 

There is absolutely no way that Murray loses the starting RB spot....I do agree that his biggest concern is health, but this guy should probably be looked at like Forte was last year. I snagged Forte in the 2nd knowing that he would catch a ton of balls and if healthy would give me 1st round value. The same goes for Murray this year....also don't forget that Dallas just added the best guard of the 2014 draft class giving them 3 1st round picks on an OL that should be one of the top OL's in the NFL.

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There is absolutely no way that Murray loses the starting RB spot....I do agree that his biggest concern is health, but this guy should probably be looked at like Forte was last year. I snagged Forte in the 2nd knowing that he would catch a ton of balls and if healthy would give me 1st round value. The same goes for Murray this year....also don't forget that Dallas just added the best guard of the 2014 draft class giving them 3 1st round picks on an OL that should be one of the top OL's in the NFL.

 

Murray absolutely puts up 1st rounder type numbers when healthy... when healthy. The problem with drafting Murray high is that you still need to fill that RB slot.

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Dave32 you asked for other's thoughts and then you disagree with them. You should have asked for confirming opinions only. Martin posted damn near 2K total yards in his rookie season, is now finally healthy and Lovie gets off the bus running. Doug will be fresh all season long, and that's going to mean good things for him.

 

I'd take Martin before Spiller, Gore, Tate, CJNYK, Mathews or Moreno for whatever that's worth :)

 

I'd take Martin before all those players you mentioned as well. I just wouldn't take him in the 2nd where he's being mocked to right now(sometimes even late 1st). It's a healthy discussion and I think the ultimate point I'm trying to make is that since there's not even 10 RBs I'm completely comfortable with, it's probably smart to go RB in 2 out of the first 3 rounds, and if value dictates it you should even go 3 outta the first 5 if you can.

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Such a murky rb situation in the badlands of rnd 3-7. This will def be a year when the winners of your league will be the guys with winning 9th rnd lotto ticket rbs that few have heard of right now.

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I believe in Montee Ball and Gio Bernard.

 

Leveon Bell should be a pretty solid bet too. Blount is actually not a good goal line back despite his size. He will get touches but he won't supplant Bell as the main guy.

 

Reggie Bush is a good buy at the right price. Injury concerns, yes, but no way it's a true RBBC if he's healthy.

 

Don't like Zac Stacy or really most of the other backs listed. Hoping I don't get put in a position where I have to take Murray since he is always getting hurt but could be top 5 if he ever made it through a full year.

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Bush to me continues to be undervalued.

 

He missed 2 games and still put up 1,500 total yards.

 

Bell 's carries and his can even out, or be in Bells favor, and he can can still be productive.

 

Even his rookie year when he only rushed for 586-6 his massive 88-748-2 line led him to be standard rb 17 and PPR rb 9.

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Just another rant bc Bush seems to have gotten the 'old' tag this off season.

Bell is currently 28. Bush is 29.

Bush has about the same exact career touches as McCoy.

He ain't no spring chicken but he's not last nights leftovers either.

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Ball and Bernard will be studs, the rest I'd pass on in the 2nd. Maybe Murry and Spiller if I haven't drafted a rb.

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Just another rant bc Bush seems to have gotten the 'old' tag this off season.

 

Bell is currently 28. Bush is 29.

 

Bush has about the same exact career touches as McCoy.

 

He ain't no spring chicken but he's not last nights leftovers either.

I owned bush in 2 non ppr leagues last year which made his output inconsistent. That is part of the reason for the bias for me.

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I owned bush in 2 non ppr leagues last year which made his output inconsistent. That is part of the reason for the bias for me.

Yeah no question a much better and risky non PPR play next year.

 

I'm kind of expecting either a 50-50 carry share, or possibly in bells favor, with Bell likely leading in tds especially rushing.

 

Still non PPR bush gave you the 10th best total stats AND 10th best per game average in 2013.

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Yeah no question a much better and risky non PPR play next year.

 

I'm kind of expecting either a 50-50 carry share, or possibly in bells favor, with Bell likely leading in tds especially rushing.

 

Still non PPR bush gave you the 10th best total stats AND 10th best per game average in 2013.

Oh yeah his totals were very good. But his consistency was all over. He would score 30 points and then get dinged up the next game. It happened too many times. I had no one to back him up.

 

Actually i had joique in both of those leagues too even if bush couldnt play.

 

In one league my backs were trich, moreno, bush, joique and then basically nothing.

 

Another was mccoy, bush spiller and then less dependable players. Trich and spiller forced me to count on him every game.

 

Last year was just a really really bad year for me. Only making the playoffs in 1 league out of 5 leagues and the sixth was the abismal shark league.

 

Two leagues i was wiped out before the season started. One league i made 2 wrong calls in my lineup which cost me the playoffs.

 

One of the best teams i have ever drafted and handled via ww couldnt even get into the top 4 in overall points.

 

Still not sure how i have a roster of

 

Foles, luck

Mccoy, bush, spiller, vereen, andre brown

Dthomas, garcon, shorts

Graham

 

And not be able to get into the top 4. Top 5 qb in ppg, top 2 rb, top 10 rb, top wr, top te.

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