Carr Elite

[H-man 12]

This is a pointless thread, but has anyone else been watching Derek Carr today? He's Dalton light this year, maybe even better. Firmly a top 10 QB in this league. This kid can ###### play!

[erknjerk 4]

I hope so. I traded Watkins for Carr & 1st in my 2QB dynasty

[R8RMick 242]

Raiders defense gave up 600 yards today, so dude was slinging it around the old ballyard. Had a horrible pick in the end zone, where he crossed signals with his rookie TE.

[murf74 461]

He is a weekly qb 1 option but most ppl #2

[tanatastic 2,061]

Carr is what deluded people think they have in Matt Ryan.

[bandrus1 413]

he is the real deal and that team has a bright future if they keep on track

[giraldi02 470]

I said before the season that both he and Blake Bortles would be top 10 QBs. Both are top 10 QBs. (Edit: in the fantasy sense, because I know there'll be someone)

It's time for people to stop labeling a team a bunch of losers based on past results.

[R8RMick 242]

He'll be better once Coop and Walford get more experienced. Coop is taking some vicious shots from NFL DBs who are trying to welcome him to the league. He's fighting through that deer-in-the-headlights stage and dropping some passes.

 

Walford missed valuable time in camp due to a hammy, but is the alltime leader in receptions for TEs at the U. Yes that list includes Jeremy Shockey, Greg Olsen, Bubba Franks, and Kellen Winslow. He cost Carr a TD today in the end zone on a pass that was intercepted, but also had a TD catch earlier in the game.

[weepaws 2,460]

Very impressed with his performance this season , Looks like the Raiders have a winner , welcome back Raiders the NFL needs you .

[DontPushMe 5]

Definitely looks a legit qb. Way better than his brother.

 

Will be interesting to see who of him and bortles turns out better. Looking like Carr this far

[Bobbyn2022 53]

Kids got that Aaron Rogers upside. He def looks like a top 10 QB and wouldn't be surprised if he's in that top 5. Kids one of the hardest working players in the NFL says Justin Tuck and Woodson. When the vets show you love like that and you're a guy whose a family man,church man and just a good hearted person you're gonna go very very far in life. Kid deserves everything he has, not easy seeing your brother be a bust and get crushed and the people pass you up for it. Kids special!!!!

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

He has looked fantastic. I was wrong on him. I actually added him in a league as he has most likely permanantly replaced Luck.

[redsrback 30]

Carr is what deluded people think they have in Matt Ryan.

If only you shared this before the season started instead of keeping it to yourself. Wow congrats being the only person in fantasy football to pick Carr over Matt Ryan. As bad as Matt Ryan has been I was thinking up till now my middle round QB in 1 league was as good as Luck and Rodgers in the first 2 rounds. Keep sharing your week 9 wisdom.

[CornKobb 48]

He is good, spreads the ball around well. Happy 4 him

[H-man 12]

I compare him to Dalton a.) because he's vastly improved and b.) because he's helped immensely by the improved talent around him, mainly his o-line but also Cooper being an instant #1 in this league and Crabtree being a phenomenal #2. It doesn't take anything away from him though, even the greatest need their weapons. Some of you might be wondering how it feels to have dropped Matt Ryan for Carr and played him this week. Jk none of you are wondering. But it feels damn good lol.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I compare him to Dalton a.) because he's vastly improved and b.) because he's helped immensely by the improved talent around him, mainly his o-line but also Cooper being an instant #1 in this league and Crabtree being a phenomenal #2. It doesn't take anything away from him though, even the greatest need their weapons. Some of you might be wondering how it feels to have dropped Matt Ryan for Carr and played him this week. Jk none of you are wondering. But it feels damn good lol.

I dropped Bradford for him. Now that the trade deadline has passed its him and Luck for the rest of the year. I will probably choose wrong a few times.

[Ray_T 591]

I knew Carr would be good. But I honestly didn't think he'd become as good as he has become this quickly.

 

I saw issues on the team (specifically sub par O line play) that I felt would limit him and Latavius this year.

 

So far, it has not been as much of an issue as I thought it would be.

 

If that team drafts a top O lineman and signs another in the offseason, this could be a scary offense by this time next year.

[H-man 12]

I knew Carr would be good. But I honestly didn't think he'd become as good as he has become this quickly.

 

I saw issues on the team (specifically sub par O line play) that I felt would limit him and Latavius this year.

 

So far, it has not been as much of an issue as I thought it would be.

 

If that team drafts a top O lineman and signs another in the offseason, this could be a scary offense by this time next year.

I mean, one site has OAK offensive line ranked #1 in pass-blocking, another has them #3. How good do you need them to be lol...

[JtmoneyJag 25]

I said before the season that both he and Blake Bortles would be top 10 QBs. Both are top 10 QBs. (Edit: in the fantasy sense, because I know there'll be someone)

 

It's time for people to stop labeling a team a bunch of losers based on past results.

I concur.

[Kelvarr 13]

I need him to be good. I just lost Big Ben for the 2nd time this season! (After already losing Bell)

[Maulers1973 117]

I think it's a little soon to call him "elite". I have watched him play, and he does look sharp. He could finish top 10 for this year. Sure! That offense looks good as long as Murray is healthy. They'll need to improve that defense to be a serious contender, but they are much improved.

[weepaws 2,460]

I did not think he would be this good , thought he would be a starter in the NFL but this good . Happy for him and for Raider fans .

[Maulers1973 117]

Of course, it's just another guy the Browns could have gotten but were to stupid to draft a guy based on real talent.

[redsrback 30]

Of course, it's just another guy the Browns could have gotten but were to stupid to draft a guy based on real talent.

Browns have a lot of problems and don't think Carr would help, but if they have landed Cooper that would of been a big step,but I hate Cleveland and laughed when I saw they got money-man

[tanatastic 2,061]

I like seeing guys who get better every year or even every game like Jameis Winston. Alot of guys plateau and never improve. Also lol @ Manziel over Carr. Even without hindsight that was a bad move and everyone knew it. Browns are the Browns for a reason.

[murf74 461]

Browns have a lot of problems and don't think Carr would help, but if they have landed Cooper that would of been a big step,but I hate Cleveland and laughed when I saw they got money-man

Could have had Julio and Carr. And a number of other great players.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Could have had Julio and Carr. And a number of other great players.

Its not like those are guys that came out of nowhere either. I remember people at the draft saying Julio was a surefire next great wr star, everyone knew it. I heard similar about Carr, how he was pro ready. I understand missing guys that come out of nowhere, but everyone knew these guys were cornerstones. Thats next level incompetence from the front office.

[brotherbock 349]

The issue I have to evaluate for the rest of this season is who the better keeper is for next year, Carr or Luck?

 

Preseason, I would have thought you were insane to ask me that question. But now? Carr seems to be making decisions at least as well, if not better, than Luck, but of course there are all sorts of injury issues and coaching concerns to muddle it.

 

At the moment it looks like I have a full-blown quandary on my hands.

[weepaws 2,460]

The issue I have to evaluate for the rest of this season is who the better keeper is for next year, Carr or Luck?

 

Preseason, I would have thought you were insane to ask me that question. But now? Carr seems to be making decisions at least as well, if not better, than Luck, but of course there are all sorts of injury issues and coaching concerns to muddle it.

 

At the moment it looks like I have a full-blown quandary on my hands.

Bigger issue than you could ever see coming .

[brotherbock 349]

Bigger issue than you could ever see coming .

 

And I really don't want to keep two QBs. I've got RB talent this year, and we only start one QB. The dread of picking the wrong guy...

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

The issue I have to evaluate for the rest of this season is who the better keeper is for next year, Carr or Luck?

 

Preseason, I would have thought you were insane to ask me that question. But now? Carr seems to be making decisions at least as well, if not better, than Luck, but of course there are all sorts of injury issues and coaching concerns to muddle it.

 

At the moment it looks like I have a full-blown quandary on my hands.

Have to watch Luck coming out of the BYE (will be fully healthy, and Hilton should hopefully be pretty much there). That said:

 

1.Skill players:

-Oak has a better pedigree for the WR 1. I love Hilton, and he will fight for the ball (anyone see him intercept DRC's interception in the end zone last year? DRC got the pick clean, hands on it and pulled in, and TY wrestled it from him in the air before they hit the ground), but Coop may have a higher ceiling.

-Oak has a better possession WR at the moment.

-Oak wins all other pass-catching comparisons.

-Colds have a solid OL, but OAK's is better.

-Oak has better RBs except in pass pro.

 

2. Coaching

Does anyone think Jack Del Rio is good? More to the point, I don't even know who the OC is for OAK. However, despite Pagano's growth this year re: game strategy, we saw yesterday that he's terrible with a lead - were it not for the pass calls at the end of the game, I'd call it John Fox stupid even (not trying to score before the end of the half? That's John Fox all over - why miss a chance to punt! Up 17, Pagano agrees!). Run game was good in first quarter, then they stuck with it, and it sucked (even excluding last drive), but...they stuck with it. A few Denver players gave the game away at the end, but Pagano tried coaching it away. He still believes in running the football just "because." If the situation in OAK is any better, then that has to factor in Carr's favor.

 

3. QB

Going into the game, Carr was 4th in DVOA (27%? something like that), 4th in DYAR, and 12th in QBR. Last year, Luck was 11th in DVOA (9.2%) - by far his best ranking.

 

4. Value: If Carr costs less in the draft, that may ice it by itself.

[H-man 12]

Have to watch Luck coming out of the BYE (will be fully healthy, and Hilton should hopefully be pretty much there). That said:

 

1.Skill players:

-Oak has a better pedigree for the WR 1. I love Hilton, and he will fight for the ball (anyone see him intercept DRC's interception in the end zone last year? DRC got the pick clean, hands on it and pulled in, and TY wrestled it from him in the air before they hit the ground), but Coop may have a higher ceiling.

-Oak has a better possession WR at the moment.

-Oak wins all other pass-catching comparisons.

-Colds have a solid OL, but OAK's is better.

-Oak has better RBs except in pass pro.

 

2. Coaching

Does anyone think Jack Del Rio is good? More to the point, I don't even know who the OC is for OAK. However, despite Pagano's growth this year re: game strategy, we saw yesterday that he's terrible with a lead - were it not for the pass calls at the end of the game, I'd call it John Fox stupid even (not trying to score before the end of the half? That's John Fox all over - why miss a chance to punt! Up 17, Pagano agrees!). Run game was good in first quarter, then they stuck with it, and it sucked (even excluding last drive), but...they stuck with it. A few Denver players gave the game away at the end, but Pagano tried coaching it away. He still believes in running the football just "because." If the situation in OAK is any better, then that has to factor in Carr's favor.

 

3. QB

Going into the game, Carr was 4th in DVOA (27%? something like that), 4th in DYAR, and 12th in QBR. Last year, Luck was 11th in DVOA (9.2%) - by far his best ranking.

 

4. Value: If Carr costs less in the draft, that may ice it by itself.

Strength of schedule sir. Luck has it in spades. Carr does not. Four of his next seven games I consider to be bad matchups, starting this week with the Vikings who will be his toughest test since week 5 when he put up 11 fantasy points against Denver, who he sees again in week 14. Today Yahoo said in a piece, if you have Carr "no need to carry a second QB", I think that may be a little too bold.

[brotherbock 349]

Have to watch Luck coming out of the BYE (will be fully healthy, and Hilton should hopefully be pretty much there). That said:

 

1.Skill players:

-Oak has a better pedigree for the WR 1. I love Hilton, and he will fight for the ball (anyone see him intercept DRC's interception in the end zone last year? DRC got the pick clean, hands on it and pulled in, and TY wrestled it from him in the air before they hit the ground), but Coop may have a higher ceiling.

-Oak has a better possession WR at the moment.

-Oak wins all other pass-catching comparisons.

-Colds have a solid OL, but OAK's is better.

-Oak has better RBs except in pass pro.

 

2. Coaching

Does anyone think Jack Del Rio is good? More to the point, I don't even know who the OC is for OAK. However, despite Pagano's growth this year re: game strategy, we saw yesterday that he's terrible with a lead - were it not for the pass calls at the end of the game, I'd call it John Fox stupid even (not trying to score before the end of the half? That's John Fox all over - why miss a chance to punt! Up 17, Pagano agrees!). Run game was good in first quarter, then they stuck with it, and it sucked (even excluding last drive), but...they stuck with it. A few Denver players gave the game away at the end, but Pagano tried coaching it away. He still believes in running the football just "because." If the situation in OAK is any better, then that has to factor in Carr's favor.

 

3. QB

Going into the game, Carr was 4th in DVOA (27%? something like that), 4th in DYAR, and 12th in QBR. Last year, Luck was 11th in DVOA (9.2%) - by far his best ranking.

 

4. Value: If Carr costs less in the draft, that may ice it by itself.

 

I was hoping you'd see this--you seem to know what you're talking about on Luck issues.

 

We're an unusual keeper league, we keep with no cost. Pick your keepers, whoever they are, and keep them as long as you want. So that's not a difference maker at all.

 

I've been liking Moncrief, but it's too damn hard to get a good read on him with the offense struggling in so many ways. I traded for him earlier in the season, but he hasn't started for me. If he's the guy I thought he was, he would even out in value with Crabtree, given their ages. But if he's more the 5/60 sort of guy, Crab is better. Two year age difference between Luck and Carr, not really significant for a QB.

 

How good has a DVOA ranking been at predicting long-term success? ESPN was using DVOA data to tell us in July that we shouldn't buy into the Carr hype, but of course ESPN has no idea what they're talking about much of the time. Is it a good long-term eval tool?

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

Strength of schedule sir. Luck has it in spades. Carr does not. Four of his next seven games I consider to be bad matchups, starting this week with the Vikings who will be his toughest test since week 5 when he put up 11 fantasy points against Denver, who he sees again in week 14. Today Yahoo said in a piece, if you have Carr "no need to carry a second QB", I think that may be a little too bold.

Oh, I definitely agree for this year. I have both, and I think if you have both, you have to carry both (at least through the Colts BYE...). I was just speaking to next year. Carr should still be improving (although DCs will have far more tape this offseason). Luck has some room left based on QB peaks (generally most of the way there year 4, with some more growth available year 5 and 6).

[brotherbock 349]

Strength of schedule sir. Luck has it in spades. Carr does not. Four of his next seven games I consider to be bad matchups, starting this week with the Vikings who will be his toughest test since week 5 when he put up 11 fantasy points against Denver, who he sees again in week 14. Today Yahoo said in a piece, if you have Carr "no need to carry a second QB", I think that may be a little too bold.

 

Keeper league concern he was addressing here, but thanks for the input. You're right about SOS.

[DontPushMe 5]

Kids got that Aaron Rogers upside. He def looks like a top 10 QB and wouldn't be surprised if he's in that top 5. Kids one of the hardest working players in the NFL says Justin Tuck and Woodson. When the vets show you love like that and you're a guy whose a family man,church man and just a good hearted person you're gonna go very very far in life. Kid deserves everything he has, not easy seeing your brother be a bust and get crushed and the people pass you up for it. Kids special!!!!

Church man? You think his choice of religion effects his ability to play quarterback? :/

[brotherbock 349]

Church man? You think his choice of religion effects his ability to play quarterback? :/

 

Well...not that going to church means you won't do bad things, but if he was known as a gang banger instead, I'd wonder if my investment was going to end up cut or in prison later on. Make Greg Hardy a comparable QB...his past won't affect a team's (or a keeper league owner's ) considerations? I think it's a fair point.

[murf74 461]

Church man? You think his choice of religion effects his ability to play quarterback? :/

Keeps his priorities straight

[H-man 12]

Oh, I definitely agree for this year. I have both, and I think if you have both, you have to carry both (at least through the Colts BYE...). I was just speaking to next year. Carr should still be improving (although DCs will have far more tape this offseason). Luck has some room left based on QB peaks (generally most of the way there year 4, with some more growth available year 5 and 6).

Hah my bad I completely missed that it was a keeper league question. It doesn't really belong in this thread, but we can definitely help establish what Carr is by comparing him to similar QBs. You have 8 games of eval left to make up your mind! lol

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

 

I was hoping you'd see this--you seem to know what you're talking about on Luck issues.

 

We're an unusual keeper league, we keep with no cost. Pick your keepers, whoever they are, and keep them as long as you want. So that's not a difference maker at all.

 

I've been liking Moncrief, but it's too damn hard to get a good read on him with the offense struggling in so many ways. I traded for him earlier in the season, but he hasn't started for me. If he's the guy I thought he was, he would even out in value with Crabtree, given their ages. But if he's more the 5/60 sort of guy, Crab is better. Two year age difference between Luck and Carr, not really significant for a QB.

 

How good has a DVOA ranking been at predicting long-term success? ESPN was using DVOA data to tell us in July that we shouldn't buy into the Carr hype, but of course ESPN has no idea what they're talking about much of the time. Is it a good long-term eval tool?

I'm a Nate Dunlevy parrot, and am happy to summarize his material. Regarding DVOA, the year matters greatly. It IS the best starting point for evaluating a QB (and probably ending point - QBR is also good). However, ESPN was, as you suspected, giving crap analysis IMO simply because of Carr's age and situation. It's like the crap Manning-Luck comparisons. Their first 3 years were almost identical! Luck better overall first 3 years! Well, Manning's 1st year was an amazing outlier (his team wend 3-13). His second year, he was 2nd best in the league (DVOA; 13-3 record), and was best his 3rd year. Last year was Carr's first year, so his really bad DVOA isn't, IMO, a good indicator.

 

Brady has also had a high to very high DVOA ranking from early on, before he had statistical success (a.k.a. volume metrics, as opposed to value [per play] metrics, like DVOA). Rivers has been a top 10 guy most of the time. Brees and Rodgers are generally top 5.

 

Short version: you need the qualitative information (Randy Moss is the only identified Quarterback Maker, hence Culpepper's 39 TD season), and ESPN was pulling nonsense by using DVOA from a first-year player. I'm not sure what metrics are good with true positives, false positives, true negatives, etc., for a first-year player.

 

Re Moncrief: Agreed. He yo-yo's between a very good free keeper (in my league -- better than Dez for a 1st, not as good as Nuk for a 2nd). I think I'd give the edge to Crabtree as a possession receiver (since he seems to have his head on straight right now). Teams seem to know to cover Moncrief in the end zone now, whereas Carr has two weapons with height.

 

For the same price, though...I'd give a slight edge to Luck (unless penalties for turnovers are substantial). He's running again, and 30 yards = 75 yards passing. The Colts aren't getting a pass rush any time soon, so their games should generally require more high scoring. Their remaining schedules should settle it (aside from draft, etc., in offseason). We'll see if Pagano is content to score under 30 in every game.