House Inspection... big problem.

[RLLD 4,230]

Markets are cyclical. Its like a Sin wave. On AVERAGE they increase 3%. At the peak of a boom they will be up 7-12%, and at the trough of a recession it may be -1-5%

 

Markets do tend to do this, but the residential real estate market traditionally has not. It was not until the community reinvestment act of 1977 that things started to get a little different, but even during the two decade long gradual elimination of regulatory controls that helped to keep the market stable it was not until low interest rates emerged in the late 90's that the market really began to get out of control.

[RLLD 4,230]

TDryan: ( browser refuses to allow me to quote0

 

You are correct, it was the reduction in regulation coupled with low interest rates and then also too the perversion of the controls also traditionally supplied by salaries that ensured the bubble would overinflate.

 

There was a collective action across all participants that led to the market spiraling out of control.

[DankNuggs 305]

'01 the housing bubble started

'07 to '08 it crashed

'09 to '11 it staggered to and bounced on the bottom

'12 the housing market started coming back

'16 we're getting to "bubble" levels again

 

forget "markets" and "cycles" and all that babble/jargon... people simply cannot afford these prices with wages where they are.

low interest rates are the only thing making it possible for middle class people to even consider buying an "average" home.

Housing cycles are historically 11-13 years. None of this is new, and there is pent up demand because building basically stopped from 08-12... Apartments are coming online like gangbusters now, although single family starts are a litle slower than you would expect. there is a major labor/subcontractor problem because alot of those workers went into different fields other than construction when it all fell apart.

[TD Ryan2 316]

and.. I believe there are really 2 markets out there...

1 for the people who made big gains during the housing boom and bust

and NONE for the people that are just getting started or got burned in the bubble.

 

for those that got burned it may have been their first home purchase and the market flip put them so far in debt that they can't dig out of it never-mind come up with another 20% (or 10%) to put down and start again AND probably pay extra each month b/c their credit doesn't get them a historic low interest rate.

[DankNuggs 305]

 

Markets do tend to do this, but the residential real estate market traditionally has not. It was not until the community reinvestment act of 1977 that things started to get a little different, but even during the two decade long gradual elimination of regulatory controls that helped to keep the market stable it was not until low interest rates emerged in the late 90's that the market really began to get out of control.

residential real estate is a function of the general economy and is usually a lagging indicator as people make the money, then they buy a house.

 

If they raised rates they'd cool the market down, but the overall economy would take a giant dump and it would tailspin...thats the dilemna... Its not unlike 08 as Bush/fed had the same dilemna that pockets of the economy were going great, but overall it was still tepid, so they held rates down

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Housing isn't a strictly financial exercise...You have to live somewhere and quality of life and happiness has its own value.

 

Where i live rents are crazy expensive, housing as well, there isn't a good answer. I've had many conversations with people contemplating selling their house, but they want to stay in the same town and buying in town is crazy expensive.

 

If you are comfortable and in a solid situation and not in need of more or less space just let it ride. Refinance again and lock in the lowest 15,20,30 year rate you can. You'll laugh in 5-10 year at how great it was to get a 3% loan

Good advice but I think I will be looking to move in 4-6 years. We will simply outgrow our current place

[TD Ryan2 316]

there is pent up demand

yes.

inventory is very low right now... that's doing two things: keeping up demand and keeping up prices.

 

anyone looking to buy right now has to have some equity behind them... the bubble-losers and newbies are going to have a tough time buying at these prices.

[DankNuggs 305]

and.. I believe there are really 2 markets out there...

1 for the people who made big gains during the housing boom and bust

and NONE for the people that are just getting started or got burned in the bubble.

 

for those that got burned it may have been their first home purchase and the market flip put them so far in debt that they can't dig out of it never-mind come up with another 20% (or 10%) to put down and start again AND probably pay extra each month b/c their credit doesn't get them a historic low interest rate.

If you bought at the peak and cant afford it, it defintely sucks. That coupled with millenials switching jobs constantly and not needing or wanting to be tied down to a geographical location is an issue and those people looking upgrade from a starter home need to sell to a first time home buyer or equivilent... Although what im seeing is these people are being priced out of the market by developers tearing down working class housing and building luxury.

 

When i bought my house which is a modest house in a nicer town it was so difficult because the builders were competing with all the young families trying to get into the school district. Was incredibly hard.

[RLLD 4,230]

Rates were held down in response to the dotcom crash of the late nineties, Greenspan had opportunity to edge them up and prevent the housing bubble but chose not to, and later admitted he could have done more.

 

Everyone involved in the housing fraud had a chance to intervene, some who were obligated to do so. But greed ruled that day at the expense of good financial decisions. And the main culprit, that being the banks, demanded to be bailed out when their avarice began to consume them....suddenly forgetting the mantra they used to crush so many people...."each individual is responsible for their own financial decisions"....said the banksters who also sought to have their companies existing as "individuals" when it suited their unbridled greed....

 

The best part was their collective celebration at the passing of the 2005 bankruptcy reform act, which I am certain was the knife in their chest

[DankNuggs 305]

Good advice but I think I will be looking to move in 4-6 years. We will simply outgrow our current place

I'm in the same boat... If you asked my wife i'm sure she'd trim that timeframe even more

 

My dream is to build our next house, so my timeline will kind of revolve around making that happen. I just put some money into our place with some renovations and upgrades and tried to be smart about it in terms of value and not overbuilding something i'll never recoup much of.

[DankNuggs 305]

Rates were held down in response to the dotcom crash of the late nineties, Greenspan had opportunity to edge them up and prevent the housing bubble but chose not to, and later admitted he could have done more.

 

Everyone involved in the housing fraud had a chance to intervene, some who were obligated to do so. But greed ruled that day at the expense of good financial decisions. And the main culprit, that being the banks, demanded to be bailed out when their avarice began to consume them....suddenly forgetting the mantra they used to crush so many people...."each individual is responsible for their own financial decisions"....said the banksters who also sought to have their companies existing as "individuals" when it suited their unbridled greed....

 

The best part was their collective celebration at the passing of the 2005 bankruptcy reform act, which I am certain was the knife in their chest

Its a better story than reality. Real estate was the engine behind the last boom. You tell me how to politically sell to the country that you are going to voluntarily take the economy into a recession so you don't have a crash. There were things that could have eased the fall, but you can't hold back the tide when its receding

[kutulu 1,676]

Just move it that's what the wheels are for

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Baker Boy 1,699]

Forget the house, there are plenty of houses out there, you will find a better one.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Forget the house, there are plenty of houses out there, you will find a better one.

Actually some good advice from Phurfur.

 

People get focused in on a house they've just got to have. Well that house was there for decades and you didn't need it then. In the interim thousands and thousands of other houses were on the market, many of them probably just as good or better.

[mmmmm...beer 807]

Oh we're not in love. Still want it if it gets correctly fixed. If not... we find a rental in the next month and drive on.

 

The bad thing is, school starts at the end of this month. We're already taking the 7th and 2nd grader from MN to WA... Don't want to be jerking them around to much.

[edjr 6,586]

I bought my house in 2013 for 238k, its now worth 404k

 

you're a complete and utter retard if you don't sell it, if this is the case

[penultimatestraw 473]

Housing isn't a strictly financial exercise...You have to live somewhere and quality of life and happiness has its own value.

 

Where i live rents are crazy expensive, housing as well, there isn't a good answer. I've had many conversations with people contemplating selling their house, but they want to stay in the same town and buying in town is crazy expensive.

 

If you are comfortable and in a solid situation and not in need of more or less space just let it ride. Refinance again and lock in the lowest 15,20,30 year rate you can. You'll laugh in 5-10 year at how great it was to get a 3% loan

People need to stop thinking of their primary residence as an investment, and prioritize personal happiness over chasing the market.

[tanatastic 2,062]

I am this close to making a "horse inspection" thread...Not going to though.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

People need to stop thinking of their primary residence as an investment, and prioritize personal happiness over chasing the market.

Yes and no. I get what you're saying but fact is for most people their home is their single biggest source of wealth. Especially when considering that you can't (or definitely should not) touch retirement accounts early.

[mmmmm...beer 807]

So... I really hadn't been feeling cool about the house since we found out about the water situation on Monday.

 

As of earlier today the sellers hadn't replied. We made a decision we wanted out. Told our relator to recend as they didn't reply to the stuff we wanted fixed. So she had just sent that when she got a response from our initial fix list.

 

The seller didn't want to put flashing on the windows as someone told them the windows were built in flashed.

 

AAAANDDD... they didn't agree with the crawlspace expert and didn't think it was going to be that much to fix the water problem. So they offered to put $7k in an escrow account and we could fix what we want.

 

My repsonse is... you seriously want to refute the expert that does NOTHING but crawl spaces... not get it fixed.. have me fix it after I move in.. and give me $4,200 LESS than what the guy said it would cost to fix?

 

Holy moly... shut up and take my money for your broken house!

 

 

Obviously... we immediately rejected based upon inspection and will get our 5k earnest back. Actually feel pretty good about it. Knot in my stomach I've had for a week is gone.

 

So... we're in Billings, MT tonight in a hotel on the way out to the Couve... essentially homeless.

 

We'll find something... even if it's a rental and we'll take awhile to find something or build.

[Djgb13 2,339]

Yea you made the smart move. Seller seems like a dumb POS. Renting a place for 6 months might not be a bad idea while you look for a house or if you want to you could build one like you said.

[fandandy 3,313]

Renting might be the smart move. Gives you both some time to settle in and look around and find something even better hopefully. Good luck.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Renting sucks but it's nice to see the city first and get a feel for where you want to live. Less chance you end up in a situation you quickly want out of

[heavy-set 39]

If you think the seller is gonna freak with a 11,000 deduction, close on the house and then sue them, for the 11k plus attorney fees.

 

Unless you have to have it, walk. standing water can lead to rot and mold.

 

In my town, you can search for any permits that were issued on the home. I just went through the home buying process and the disclousre form is basically a scam. foundation repair permit, yep, disclosed, nope.

[JTB 52]

120k profit after 4 years? Absurd.....

On a billion dollars it IS absurd.

 

Stop counting other people's money.

[JTB 52]

So... I really hadn't been feeling cool about the house since we found out about the water situation on Monday.

As of earlier today the sellers hadn't replied. We made a decision we wanted out. Told our relator to recend as they didn't reply to the stuff we wanted fixed. So she had just sent that when she got a response from our initial fix list.

The seller didn't want to put flashing on the windows as someone told them the windows were built in flashed.

AAAANDDD... they didn't agree with the crawlspace expert and didn't think it was going to be that much to fix the water problem. So they offered to put $7k in an escrow account and we could fix what we want.

My repsonse is... you seriously want to refute the expert that does NOTHING but crawl spaces... not get it fixed.. have me fix it after I move in.. and give me $4,200 LESS than what the guy said it would cost to fix?

Holy moly... shut up and take my money for your broken house!

Obviously... we immediately rejected based upon inspection and will get our 5k earnest back. Actually feel pretty good about it. Knot in my stomach I've had for a week is gone.

So... we're in Billings, MT tonight in a hotel on the way out to the Couve... essentially homeless.

We'll find something... even if it's a rental and we'll take awhile to find something or build.

Has the job fallen through yet?

[mmmmm...beer 807]

Has the job fallen through yet?

Are you big picturing or something?

 

I'm under orders for this.

[mmmmm...beer 807]

If you think the seller is gonna freak with a 11,000 deduction, close on the house and then sue them, for the 11k plus attorney fees.

 

Unless you have to have it, walk. standing water can lead to rot and mold.

 

In my town, you can search for any permits that were issued on the home. I just went through the home buying process and the disclousre form is basically a scam. foundation repair permit, yep, disclosed, nope.

Yeah walked yesterday.

[mmmmm...beer 807]

Renting sucks but it's nice to see the city first and get a feel for where you want to live. Less chance you end up in a situation you quickly want out of

After owning for lime 11 years... might be nice to not worry about sh!t breaking for a few months. Water heaters bad? Oh well.. call the guy. Plumbing leaking... the guy.

[DankNuggs 305]

After owning for lime 11 years... might be nice to not worry about sh!t breaking for a few months. Water heaters bad? Oh well.. call the guy. Plumbing leaking... the guy.

You might want to look at extended stay hotels or try to get a 6 month lease to give you a bit more flexibility... Sucks to move into an apartment just to leave a bunch of months later, but worth it to make sure you are settling in the right place..

 

Probably a blessing the house fell through as you'll be much more knowledgeable for the next one and make an even better decision. The housing market cools off after august as the rush to get kids into the school system ends.

[Mookz 1,348]

Probly better to not end up being pursued by this guy through the crawlspace anyway, moldy or not.