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Matt's Eagles

Who you Buying and who you selling?

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1 hour ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

I love Gurley. It was an absolute pleasure owning him this season. The thing with Gurley is I think McVay took notice of how Gurley's touches affected him towards the end of the season when they needed him most. That combined with CJA coming in and thriving leads me to believe we will see Gurley get a lot less touches and pulled a lot earlier in games next season to keep him fresh for the postseason run. He'll still be a stud but will probably drop from being an automatic 20+ pointer every week to a still very solid double digit scorer with the occasional 20+ game. 

Bolded IMO is an accurate assessment, but of the best case scenario................which is to say I think Gurley's high end projection without consideration of other risk factors is below, or at very best in line, with the capital spent to acquire him. He is not going to win leagues this year at his ADP, the best those who choose him with a top pick can hope for he can return top 6 RB value, but the thing is the risk factors are significant and higher probability than is recognized so deserve a significant discount of his high end projection.

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Actually if you look back I said he DJ would be over ranked going into last season, and that was a easy assessment.  I don’t care about everyone else’s adp I have and have done my own rankings thanks for the past rankings   

 Gurley won’t be. 

I think he will once again be a top three rb, and be a big asset to anyone’s.  ff team. If he’s healthy  

Appreciate your opinion about Gurley, I know it won’t be right. 

Thanks. 

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13 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I don’t care about everyone else’s adp I have and have done my own rankings thanks for the past rankings 

Appreciate your opinion about Gurley, I know it won’t be right. 

Thanks. 

Yeah!  So there Les!

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29 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Actually if you look back I said he DJ would be over ranked going into last season, and that was a easy assessment.  I don’t care about everyone else’s adp I have and have done my own rankings thanks for the past rankings   

 Gurley won’t be. 

I think he will once again be a top three rb, and be a big asset to anyone’s.  ff team. If he’s healthy  

Appreciate your opinion about Gurley, I know it won’t be right. 

Thanks. 

 

I'm not the looking back through posts type. We all get some right and some wrong. Kudos to you if you were on the right side of DJ and I believe you but I was referring to your quoted comment.

It was only an "easy choice" in retrospect. The fact that DJ was 1.03 in the average draft makes it clear that his underperformance of previous years was far less than "easy" to envision.

Just out of curiosity WP, since you have a high degree of confidence Gurley will be worth that top choice, I'm assuming you must have clarity on why he wasn't on the field regularly toward the end of the year? (And presumably that it will not carry over?)

I do a fair amount of research but I still do not have what I'd consider clarity so I would appreciate if you could relay a clear and accurate picture. It could help clear up one of my risk factors anyway.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, ralphster said:

Yeah!  So there Les!

Ralphster, you silly rascal you!

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The point is Gurley is not healthy.  He may never be healthy again.  He has arthritis in the same knee he injured and had repaired in college.  

It is often portrayed that an acl knee injury is always repaired to a level of healed completely.  That is false.

In a redraft I would not take Todd Gurley in the first 25 picks.  Someone else will draft him on draft day.

In this thread of dynasty/keeper leagues I am selling Gurley for the most I can get asap.  I will not be a buyer that's for sure.

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What are you going to get though?  Right now nothing much. Best to hold and wait for an early season blow up game and move him then.

Or just maybe this is all offseason speculation and he'll be back to dominance next spring after he's had a chance to heal. 

Bottom line - Gurley is a hold right now.

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WeePaws, I think you should spend the summer trying to bring Christianity to a remote island tribe.  

 

My buys:  

QB:  Darnold

RB:  Keith Ford Buf

WR:  Keke Coutee Texans

TE:  Chris Herndon Jets

 

My sells:

QB:  Big Ben

RB:   Fournette  

WR:  AJ Green

TE:   Kelce

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I made two big trades in one league the other day.  We can keep 4 players for as long as we want to keep them.  4 points pass tds.  Full ppr.  12 team league.

I traded Patrick Mahomes and got Zeke Elliot straight up.

Then I traded Antonio Brown, James Conner, Sony Michel, and a 14th round pick.  I got DeAndre Hopkins and a 6 pick in return.

My 4 keepers are Zeke, Melvin Gordon, Hopkins, and Odell Beckham Jr.

It's never too early to improve your roster, and I like talking trades all year around.

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On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 PM, ralphster said:

What are you going to get though?  Right now nothing much. Best to hold and wait for an early season blow up game and move him then.

Or just maybe this is all offseason speculation and he'll be back to dominance next spring after he's had a chance to heal. 

Bottom line - Gurley is a hold right now.

There is no doubt that Gurleys lack of play in the playoffs are concerning.   The speculation is that there was an unreported injury.  

While that may or may not be the truth, the reality is this:

If you are going to sell now, its actually risky to do so because the price people pay may be less than what I'd call full market value.   even considering the possible injury.

ideally, you would wait for Gurley to have his first huge game of the year, and sell shortly after that time.

That being said, there may be people out there still willing to pay full market for him and will ignore what they saw in the postseason.

A Gurley owner should, if evaluating trade possibilities, seek to find a balance where the price paid reflects the amount of risk you are willing to take.   

Personally, I wouldnt pay full value for him(assuming fully healthy) due to the risks, but I would buy if the situation was right and a reasonable adjustment for injury risk was in place.   This is the kind of player.... when healthy  who wins fantasy pools for you.  So I wouldnt go selling him on the cheap either.

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further to my previous post, if the discount on gurley is substantial, you buy.  if someone pays full market (assuming he is fully healthy)  you should consider selling.

The difference between the two positions could well be substantial,  so do your homework before making any deals

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On ‎3‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 7:10 PM, Smileseers said:

The point is Gurley is not healthy.  He may never be healthy again.  He has arthritis in the same knee he injured and had repaired in college.  

It is often portrayed that an acl knee injury is always repaired to a level of healed completely.  That is false.

In a redraft I would not take Todd Gurley in the first 25 picks.  Someone else will draft him on draft day.

In this thread of dynasty/keeper leagues I am selling Gurley for the most I can get asap.  I will not be a buyer that's for sure.

This likely isn't much help, but I have arthritis in my knee as well.  Same ordeal as Gurley.  It's from a pretty bad injury I sustained while wrestling in College.  Long story short, arthritis set in about six months after the accident/surgery.  It didn't bother me for years.  I am older than Gurley, by far (45), but the issues in my knee started in my early 20's.  I can go periods of months, even a sold year, without pain.  It's a progressive issue though and will get worse with time.  It cannot heal.  When the pain begins, it HURTS and it does so for a completely random amount of time.  It may hurt for two weeks or it may hurt for three months.  I get shots for the pain when it kicks in, but all the shots do is injury your knee more in the long run.  You're moving around when you shouldn't be.....  Anyway, take this for what it's worth, but arthritis is something that CANNOT be fixed and will lead to a slow degradation of the entire knee area.  I'm not sure if I'm telling anyone to sell right now or just say it's going to be a big issue in a few more years if it's bothering him now.  I'll decide before the season, but he may end up on my 'do not draft list' going forward.  At his age, and with his insurance, you would be a fool to continue damaging your knee.  Love the game or not, he will not be walking when he's 50 if he continues the abuse. 

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