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Drafting from the 12 spot

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So I just pulled the 12th spot in a 12 team league.  Not excited about it at all and all my mock drafts, my team has come out horrible.  Personally, I think it is the hardest spot to draft from.

I have been using my first 4-5 rounds on RB and WRs, but thinking I might need to change up my strategy.  WR I can prob wait on as it's deep this year, but feel like you can get in trouble if you don't get a RB or two early.

 

Anyone else drafting last and feeling nervous about it?  Tried other strategies that you have liked the results in a mock?

Cheers!

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I think the 12th spot is fine. I do think there is a bit of a disadvantage to the end of a 12 team draft. You will get a running back that you can really trust imo. I love Mixon there. I would probably go Mixon plus Tyreek or Kelce. After that it all depends on who falls. 

The third round is a prime spot to take Jacobs. He should feast in PPR. I love how natural of a receiver he is. 

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Just now, Frozenbeernuts said:

I think the 12th spot is fine. I do think there is a bit of a disadvantage to the end of a 12 team draft. You will get a running back that you can really trust imo. I love Mixon there. I would probably go Mixon plus Tyreek or Kelce. After that it all depends on who falls. 

I would grab a an established RB with an established role like Mixon and then land one of the elite WR. In rounds 2-3 people are reaching for dart throw RBs. I've grabbing the borderline WR1s that have been falling as a result. That way I've been able focus on RBs for the rest of the draft, instead grabbing WR 3s. It's a team that has a solid base, and is ready for the mid season when the early round RBs get hurt, have roles reduced or just straight up bust.

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Been grabbing Mixon in most, Conner has fallen a few times, then with Hill, got Julio once.  First two picks should be solid, its after that the players I seem to be targeting are not there, or I am reaching big to get them

Appreciate the above thoughts

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Picking at the turn, you always reach for players you want. Otherwise you end up a with a team full of people you don't want.

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I would recommend Mahomie and Kelce at the turn. You have secured the best at those 2 positions from the 12 hole.....then just hammer away at RB's and WR's for the next 10 rounds.

On the second turn, I would get 2 of these RB's: Carson, Henry, Montgomery, Ingram or Jacobs. If Miles Sanders is still available at your 5th pick, snipe him.

Lots of high upside with good value at WR after that.....like ARob, C. Samuels, Ashlon, Kirk, R. Anderson, etc. I'd even grab DeSean Jackson and/or D. Parker late. They have both had a stellar camp.

Also be sure to cuff Penny, and grab proven RB1's waiting in the wings, like Jaylen Samuels and CJ Anderson.

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I am not kidding ya. I would rather the 12 than the 1. Any day. It allows you to set up way easier what your gonna do. 

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2 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

I am not kidding ya. I would rather the 12 than the 1. Any day. It allows you to set up way easier what your gonna do. 

You get a much better RB/WR combo at 12. Still great RBs with just as much risk and upside as the top 4 and you get your pick of top shelf stud WRs. Or two of them if that’s your bag.

At 1 you get what? A likely RB bust and then sketchy choices at the 2/3 turn and no stud WRs left. 

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I got the 12 spot my first 4 picks were Chubb,  Julio Jones, josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen.  So concentrated on RBs and WRs. I went Vance McDonald in 7 (no Jessie James, AB) and took Brees in the 8th. 

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I prefer the 1st because of the first three players I can get compared to the two I can get at 12. I always feel like I'm chasing players at the end instead of being able to pick a and choose when I take my targets in the early portion of the draft

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Drafting in the 12 spot you need to be flexible.  It really depends who drops to you.  As a general thought - many point to going RB early with the argument that the position is scarce.

Well, here's a chart of position scarcity Vs points they give to your team (PPR):

Positon and amount Rank Point / Game Round Picked
QB Rank 1 26 2-3
8 Rank 2-10 20-22 5-12
9 Rank 11-20 17-19 12+
WR Rank 1 22 1
4 Rank 2-5 20-22 1-2
9 Rank 6-15 17-19 2-3
7 Rank 16-23 15-17 3-4
8 Rank 24-32 13-15 4-10
30 Rank 24-32 10-13 12+
31 Rank 33-64 7-10 12+
RB Rank 1 27 1
6 Rank 2-8 20-24 1
0 None 17-19 -
5 Rank 9-14 15-17 2
6 Rank 15-20 13-15 3-4
21 Rank 21-42 10-13 4-10
23 Rank 43-66 7-10 12+
TE Rank 1 18 2
2 Rank 2-3 15-17 3-4
1 Rank 4 13-15 4
6 Rank 5-11 10-13 5-10
11 Rank 11-22 7-10 12+

As you can see - There is a big advantage to take the best available in the first 2 rounds.   Most positions fall off - RB especially hard. These are just last years numbers as well, so outside those you know will perform, is there a need to force pick a question mark RB early when you can safely pick a RB rounds 4-10 that will get you 10-13 points and "guarantee" your top tier of points at WR.

As you can see, most of the combos end up close in theory.

WR-WR [20]+ [22,22,13]+[10,10]+[7] = 104   

WR-RB [20] + [22,13,10]+[17,15] +[7] = 104

RB-RB  [20]+ [15,15,10]+[17,17]+[7] = 101

RB-TE  [20]+ [13,13,10]+[17,15]+[18]= 106

 

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End of draft is much better than 5-9 or 4-9 (if no Zeke deal still). You'll land 2 top tier WR or RB/WR combo. I wouldn't worry. 

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9 minutes ago, JediMaster said:

End of draft is much better than 5-9 or 4-9 (if no Zeke deal still). You'll land 2 top tier WR or RB/WR combo. I wouldn't worry. 

I don't see any difference really. Mike Evans and Juju fall to the mid second quite often. Both of them could easily be near the top this year. Plus Kelce could fall. It's nice to have a mid pick to see who falls in the second sometimes, and you get the benefit of landing another guy in the third who falls, or have choice over who is left before it gets to the end of the third. Last year Barkley fell to me in the second (non sharks home league) 

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For redrafts I have a #1 and a #11.  I have done much  more mocking on the #1 and believe I have a good feel for who will drop where for the 1st 8-9 rounds. I have done less mocking for the 11th.  I'll update once I go through more 1-2 combos.

both of these have 1.5 ppr for te, so I believe I will likely take at least 1 top 3 tight end in that first turn.  I have done a few te-te mocks and I am liking the outcomes... still evaluating though.

 

edit: food for thought:

kittle was the 3rd te, but would rank at #8 wr last year between thielen and juju. 

kelce and ertz would have been the #1 and #2 wrs with this scoring.

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Here's how my team at position 12 turned out (half PPR, superflex):

1.(12)Davante Adams

2.(13)James Conner

3.(36)Kerryon Johnson

4.(37)Brandin Cooks

5.(60)Jameis Winston

6.(61)Mark Ingram II

7.(84)Sony Michel

8.(85)Josh Allen

 9.(108)Dante Pettis

 10.(109)Vance McDonald

 11.(132)Geronimo Allison

 12.(133)DeSean Jackson

 13.(156)Michael Gallup

 14.(157)Justice Hill

 15.(180)Damien Harris

 16.(181)C.J. Anderson

 17.(204)David Moore

 18.(205)Malcolm Brown

I'm pretty happy with the way things turned out and the guys that fell to me. The tough decision now is who to cut to pick up a DST and K. Still a couple weeks of preseason, so I'll probably wait til week 1 to pick those positions up.

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You never know how things will work out, but I am not feeling that team, as things stand now. I think you did get good value on Ingram in the 6th and managed to cuff him.....which could very well be your saving grace. I am assuming that somebody sniped Jaylen Samuels before you could cuff him? DeSean Jackson was good value, and having CJ Anderson around was a good idea. Also, what made you pull the trigger on Winston in the 5th?

 

Good luck.

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Winston in the 5th because I was a little late to QBs flying off the board. Wasn't too ecstatic about the Josh Allen thing either, but it's also a 4 pt passing TD league, so his upside can be better there. That was definitely the most challenging thing about being in the 12 spot. In the moment, I felt like I'd rather take those value picks that were there as opposed to jumping on a QB a round earlier. Tough to tell when those trends take off that quickly, especially with that many opponent picks in between.

I actually am high on guys like Kerryon, Sony, and the Ravens offense. I can see the Ravens using Justice Hill in that Kamara style role, so figured I'd try and just lock that backfield up since Hill was so cheap. Fairly obvious where my insecurities lie with the CJ and Damien Harris picks though, so wanted some insurance there.

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32 minutes ago, superbowlbears said:

Winston in the 5th because I was a little late to QBs flying off the board. Wasn't too ecstatic about the Josh Allen thing either, but it's also a 4 pt passing TD league, so his upside can be better there. That was definitely the most challenging thing about being in the 12 spot. In the moment, I felt like I'd rather take those value picks that were there as opposed to jumping on a QB a round earlier. Tough to tell when those trends take off that quickly, especially with that many opponent picks in between.

I actually am high on guys like Kerryon, Sony, and the Ravens offense. I can see the Ravens using Justice Hill in that Kamara style role, so figured I'd try and just lock that backfield up since Hill was so cheap. Fairly obvious where my insecurities lie with the CJ and Damien Harris picks though, so wanted some insurance there.

not really trying to pee in your cheerios, but i think we value players very differently. i was also surprised to see your run at qb in the 5th with 4 pt td scoring.

mock at 11 (ppr, 1.5 for te)... 2,2,1, with 2 flex (so can start 4 rb)

1.11 kelce

2.2 gurley

3.11 aaron jones

4.2 brandon cooks

5.11 lindsay

6.2 coleman

7.11 wentz

8.2 mcdonald

9.11 moncrief

10.2 tyrell williams... and i cut it off here

 

so:

wentz

gurley

jones

cooks

moncrief

kelce

(2 of lindsay, coleman, or mcdonald at flex)

 

what i am finding with this spot is that I do not like a lot of those mid-tier wrs available, and a depth at rb.  I may end up going te/wr in 1-2 then grabbing 2 rbs at 3-4.

 

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Same scoring: went te/wr... much more balanced

1.11 kelce

2.02 Hill (could have grabbed obj or juju) I like landry so passed on beckham

3.11 a. jones

4.02 cooks

5.11 Landry

6.02 lindsay

7.11 wentz

8.02 coleman

9.11 moncrief 

10.02 ebron

 

so:

wentz

jones

lindsay

hill

cooks

kelce

(2 of landry, ebron, coleman)

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In some mocks I've done from the 12th spot. the best teams came from drafting 2 WR the first 2 rounds. Then in rounds 3 & 4 you can grab RB. Mack, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones. 5th QB. 6th grab another RB. Then for the next 3 rounds WR. There you will be looking at people like Ridley, Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins. AJ Green. 

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If you have a strong WR keeper like Hill would you go a specific pattern end of 1st? RB/RB, RB/Kelce, RB/WR? What would you hope for in non ppr?

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