Doug Orth's Big Boards 2020 - Top 200

[Serenity Now 44]

If Mack is not there, I think he would be late round 1 early round 2 material. I think it would be a perfect storm of talent, opportunity, and scheme. The Colts O-line is built for a back like Taylor. 

[greggorymac 0]

If Saquon misses time (say 2-4 games) due to the high ankle sprain, how far does he drop in your RB Rankings?

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, The Football Guru said:

This feels like Nick Chubb's rookie year all over again, just that Taylor is going about 8-10 rounds earlier and has a better o-line.

Except Chubb was from Georgia, and Taylor is from Wisconsin, so... apples and oranges.

47 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

The problem is in the high-stakes leagues I play in, those owners don't often budge on those players. I tried like crazy to acquire Joe Mixon, Le'Veon Bell and Derrick Henry last season as those teams piled up loss after loss. The Mixon and Bell owners said they couldn't let go of their guys for anything less than one of my three top 10 WRs. I was able to get Henry b/c his owner liked Conner and I could also give him Mattison to handcuff Cook. My point: we can't assume trades just b/c we all like talk about making them.

Yeah, I got so tired of ridiculous trade offers and trade demands that I pretty much don't play in leagues that allow trading any more.  I certainly wouldn't go into a season counting on trades as a mechanism for improving my team, like the guy who drafts ten QBs in a superflex league thinking he can get a starting RB for Josh Rosen.

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In the first 6 rounds, I want to target guys that I know should be starters any given week.  I'm not taking Taylor where he's going because I don't see him getting that playing time this season.  I'll take him in the 7th or 8th round, but certainly not in the first 4 rounds.

The way I feel also in a redraft.  

He’s going to be a good one, but I think Mack and Hines will get their fair share of playing time also. 

He’s going to early for me.  

[The Football Guru 212]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

The way I feel also in a redraft.  

He’s going to be a good one, but I think Mack and Hines will get their fair share of playing time also. 

He’s going to early for me.  

It just goes back to risk tolerance, as I stated in the column. If Fournette loses half of his targets, he's a fourth-rounder. If Gurley doesn't hold up ... if Carson's hip doesn't hold up ... if Bell loses 100-plus touches to Gore ... and so on and so forth.

Taylor has one real weakness for fantasy purposes right now and it's Mack. Is that much different than Chubb? Dillon is probably going to threaten Aaron Jones for touches at some point. If we want to put all of those guys in the fourth round or after, that's fine. However, there's a delicate balance in ranking and tiering players. WR is ridiculously deep. There are about 50 WRs I'd feel comfortable starting on a regular basis. TE falls off after the top four IMO and again after the next three before giving us a bunch of low-end TE1/high-end TE2 types. QB is ridiculously deep. I'd be willing to start maybe about 20 of those guys on a regular basis.

The point here is not so much about whether or not the RBs are going too high in our opinions based on their current circumstances (they are), but rather going out and buying a year's worth of toilet paper when a pandemic hits because your house is literally stocked with everything else a person needs to get by. I'd argue there's not much of a discernible difference between Mike Evans (my WR13 at the moment) and DK Metcalf (WR20). One typically goes early-to-mid third and the other goes early-to-mid fifth. Most of us aren't taking QB/TEs after Mahomes/Jackson and Kelce/Kittle/Ertz/Andrews are gone, so that leaves us with taking the best remaining running back (or at least the one with the fewest warts) in the third round, assuming we didn't get two to begin the draft.

[jrokh 569]

1 hour ago, greggorymac said:

If Saquon misses time (say 2-4 games) due to the high ankle sprain, how far does he drop in your RB Rankings?

What high ankle sprain?. As far as I know he hasn't even missed a practice...

[The Football Guru 212]

Just now, jrokh said:

What high ankle sprain?. As far as I know he hasn't even missed a practice...

I'm assuming it was a hypothetical based on last year (or an attempt to take a shot at me, which I'm not going to assume).

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

5 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

It just goes back to risk tolerance, as I stated in the column. If Fournette loses half of his targets, he's a fourth-rounder. If Gurley doesn't hold up ... if Carson's hip doesn't hold up ... if Bell loses 100-plus touches to Gore ... and so on and so forth.

Taylor has one real weakness for fantasy purposes right now and it's Mack. Is that much different than Chubb? Dillon is probably going to threaten Aaron Jones for touches at some point. If we want to put all of those guys in the fourth round or after, that's fine. However, there's a delicate balance in ranking and tiering players. WR is ridiculously deep. There are about 50 WRs I'd feel comfortable starting on a regular basis. TE falls off after the top four IMO and again after the next three before giving us a bunch of low-end TE1/high-end TE2 types. QB is ridiculously deep. I'd be willing to start maybe about 20 of those guys on a regular basis.

The point here is not so much about whether or not the RBs are going too high in our opinions based on their current circumstances (they are), but rather going out and buying a year's worth of toilet paper when a pandemic hits because your house is literally stocked with everything else a person needs to get by. I'd argue there's not much of a discernible difference between Mike Evans (my WR13 at the moment) and DK Metcalf (WR20). One typically goes early-to-mid third and the other goes early-to-mid fifth. Most of us aren't taking QB/TEs after Mahomes/Jackson and Kelce/Kittle/Ertz/Andrews are gone, so that leaves us with taking the best remaining running back (or at least the one with the fewest warts) in the third round, assuming we didn't get two to begin the draft.

 

5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

What high ankle sprain?. As far as I know he hasn't even missed a practice...

 

4 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I'm assuming it was a hypothetical based on last year (or an attempt to take a shot at me, which I'm not going to assume).

I think it's fair to ask about guys who are injury-prone or older.  Guys like Gurley, Fournette, and Bell fall into that category.  I think all 3 drop in rankings because of the risk assessment due to playing time.  I think to add Barkley to that, like I believe @greggorymac may be doing, is a little to jumpy.  He played all 16 games in his rookie season and missed 3 last year.  I'm expecting 16 games again... but if he does get hurt and misses 2 to 4 games again this year, I'm willing then to knock him down a bit next year.

[jrokh 569]

2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

 

I think it's fair to ask about guys who are injury-prone or older.  Guys like Gurley, Fournette, and Bell fall into that category.  I think all 3 drop in rankings because of the risk assessment due to playing time.  I think to add Barkley to that, like I believe @greggorymac may be doing, is a little to jumpy.  He played all 16 games in his rookie season and missed 3 last year.  I'm expecting 16 games again... but if he does get hurt and misses 2 to 4 games again this year, I'm willing then to knock him down a bit next year.

 

10 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I'm assuming it was a hypothetical based on last year (or an attempt to take a shot at me, which I'm not going to assume).

Ahh, went over my head, the Giants just lost their 2nd round pick and starting FS X Mckinney for a while, was worried I missed something on saquads. Yeah, worrying about RB injuries to healthy players is an exercise in futility. I remember way back when Frank Gore entered the league he was as injury prone as it got. Now he's an age-defying Iron Man...

[weepaws 2,460]

On this site as of 8/20 they have Mack 26th and Taylor 27 th ranked at the rb position in a non ppr 14 team league   

After those two players , I see R Jones at 33 and Akers at 35 and Z Moss at 48, all of them I would rather draft over the Taylor/ Mack combo frustrating weekly play . 

So I would rather not take a pass on those two as a late rb2 or a very early rb3 when I can get those guys.  

And I agree Mack is the biggest challenge to Taylor, and if they both stay healthy I see no way I can trust either one higher then a flex play. 

Anyway that’s my thought. 

Thanks  

 

[Matt Mueller 146]

Eagles down another offensive lineman.  It could be ugly for them  

[jrokh 569]

14 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

Eagles down another offensive lineman.  It could be ugly for them  

Good point, Brooks and now Dillard. I was already skittish on Sanders at his ADP, now....

[The Football Guru 212]

8 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

Eagles down another offensive lineman.  It could be ugly for them  

Agreed. Sanders may fall to #12 on my Big Board pretty soon and maybe even #14 behind Josh Jacobs. To be fair, however, Dillard graded out as the team's worst run and pass blocker last season. Brooks was the big loss.

With that said, I'm dropping Sanders now because two starters are down and Peters (who looked his age last year) is now being asked to turn back the clock and stay healthy (both of which seem unlikely).

[weepaws 2,460]

I won’t get him now, I’m sire he’ll still go pretty much around his adp in my league , of the 14 owners three are Eagles fans.  

Ive dropped him down a couple of spots.  

 

[Mike FF Today 608]

Added Top 200 for Half-point PPR today.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Added the Top 200 for Non-PPR leagues.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

On 8/26/2020 at 5:43 PM, The Football Guru said:

It just goes back to risk tolerance, as I stated in the column. If Fournette loses half of his targets, he's a fourth-rounder. If Gurley doesn't hold up ... if Carson's hip doesn't hold up ... if Bell loses 100-plus touches to Gore ... and so on and so forth.

Taylor has one real weakness for fantasy purposes right now and it's Mack. Is that much different than Chubb? Dillon is probably going to threaten Aaron Jones for touches at some point. If we want to put all of those guys in the fourth round or after, that's fine. However, there's a delicate balance in ranking and tiering players. WR is ridiculously deep. There are about 50 WRs I'd feel comfortable starting on a regular basis. TE falls off after the top four IMO and again after the next three before giving us a bunch of low-end TE1/high-end TE2 types. QB is ridiculously deep. I'd be willing to start maybe about 20 of those guys on a regular basis.

The point here is not so much about whether or not the RBs are going too high in our opinions based on their current circumstances (they are), but rather going out and buying a year's worth of toilet paper when a pandemic hits because your house is literally stocked with everything else a person needs to get by. I'd argue there's not much of a discernible difference between Mike Evans (my WR13 at the moment) and DK Metcalf (WR20). One typically goes early-to-mid third and the other goes early-to-mid fifth. Most of us aren't taking QB/TEs after Mahomes/Jackson and Kelce/Kittle/Ertz/Andrews are gone, so that leaves us with taking the best remaining running back (or at least the one with the fewest warts) in the third round, assuming we didn't get two to begin the draft.

Imo this is the deepest year for tight ends also. I will pay a second for mahomes, but besides him I'm probably starting the draft with 3 backs

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

On 8/26/2020 at 6:51 PM, weepaws said:

On this site as of 8/20 they have Mack 26th and Taylor 27 th ranked at the rb position in a non ppr 14 team league   

After those two players , I see R Jones at 33 and Akers at 35 and Z Moss at 48, all of them I would rather draft over the Taylor/ Mack combo frustrating weekly play . 

So I would rather not take a pass on those two as a late rb2 or a very early rb3 when I can get those guys.  

And I agree Mack is the biggest challenge to Taylor, and if they both stay healthy I see no way I can trust either one higher then a flex play. 

Anyway that’s my thought. 

Thanks  

 

Thats really low for the indy duo. Those two could easily both be middle rb2s each week with that line

[The Football Guru 212]

2 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Imo this is the deepest year for tight ends also. I will pay a second for mahomes, but besides him I'm probably starting the draft with 3 backs

I would not mind starting with three backs either, but I'm sure not going to force it either. The last running back I want to consider in the third round is Carson (maybe Gurley if I'm picking at 3.11 or 3.12).

[bussejtd5277 0]

Huge jump from previous for top list 200 non-ppr for DK Metcalf? Just checking for reason why?

[weepaws 2,460]

11 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Thats really low for the indy duo. Those two could easily both be middle rb2s each week with that line

Mmm I can’t agree with that, Hines is also going to produce, right now my target is Mack, non ppr.  

I think Taylor is the better player, but his adp is just to high for me, I can’t trust him as a weekly start, he’s being drafted as a high rb2, I think his owners will have some frustrating ff days, and maybe even look to trade him away. N

i shall be ready to get a little cheaper then. 

Oh how I love this ff stuff. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Hi Guru, thanks for the non ppr top 200, great job. 

I don’t see wr  Conley of the Jags listed, I know the Jags won’t go down in history with a great passing game this season, but you don’t see him worthy of a roster spot? 

I see you do have Shenault at 70 and WBrook at 71, and I think WBrook is already nursing a injury. 

So non ppr 14 teamer do you think Conley might hold off the rookie and be worthy of a roster spot? 

Thank you. 

[Mike FF Today 608]

Added Top 200 for SuperFlex leagues.

[The Football Guru 212]

Guys, I won't say I'm out on Kamara, but I'm concerned. I wasn't worried all that much about his contract situation, but I can no longer keep him ahead of Zeke now that we know he has been received an epidural for his back. That's kind of a big deal. 

I would strongly consider taking Michael Thomas and Davante Adams over him now as well. We'll see what news comes out about his back in the coming days, but I think he needs to be coming off the board around 1.06 or later until we get something more encouraging. If you still believe he's worth the risk, be prepared to spend a seventh-round pick on Latavius Murray and use your last pick on Ty Montgomery if you have enough roster spots.

Consider me skeptical about one thing though: Kamara has a potentially serious back issue and the Saints are considering a long-term deal for him right now? Something's off.

[NPNG 4]

Will you put out another Top 200 for 0.5 ppr?  Would like to have one before my draft on Saturday.  Thanks.

[The Football Guru 212]

1 hour ago, NPNG said:

Will you put out another Top 200 for 0.5 ppr?  Would like to have one before my draft on Saturday.  Thanks.

No more updates on the site after the FFPC.

Send me an email or DM on Twitter with your email and I'll send you my latest 0.5 PPR update. I need to know specific scoring, as things like two WR starters vs. three WR and one point for every 20 yards passing vs. one for every 25 affect how positions/players are valued.

[The Football Guru 212]

Did an update on the TB situation last night. In PPR, I have Fournette at 57 and RoJo at 82.

I'm very skeptical about this backfield. Think it could very easily end up being a hot-hand situation, but I know I wouldn't rule out RoJo keeping the job all season (very unlikely though). I don't think LF handles 250 carries or 300 touches though; I'd say that is the least likely of the most likely outcomes.

My advice: buy RoJo if he falls to about the range I have him and sit on him for about a month - if it takes that long to figure out what Arians is doing.

[AxeElf 787]

14 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Did an update on the TB situation last night. In PPR, I have Fournette at 57 and RoJo at 82.

LOL

Sure hope that's a typo.

[The Football Guru 212]

Just now, AxeElf said:

LOL

Sure hope that's a typo.

What part? I guess I should have spelled out Tampa Bay and assumed you didn't think I meant Tom Brady 

Seriously though, come at me with something a bit more substantial than "sure hope that's a typo."

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

3 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Seriously though, come at me with something a bit more substantial than "sure hope that's a typo."

Don't expect it.

 

I gave a full break down on my take and his response something akin to: "Not uh".

[AxeElf 787]

17 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Seriously though, come at me with something a bit more substantial than "sure hope that's a typo."

Ok, but I honestly DID hope it was just a typo.

Since you seem to be standing by your rankings, then perhaps you can explain why you have the incumbent starter ranked not just lower but significantly lower (so as to no longer even be fantasy relevant) than the guy who couldn't beat out Ryquell Armstead and Chris Thompson, couldn't be traded for even a 7th round pick, and then cleared waivers to be signed to a one-year deal as an "insurance policy" (coach's words)?

It seems like you legitimately got the rankings reversed.

[The Football Guru 212]

4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Ok, but I honestly DID hope it was just a typo.

Since you seem to be standing by your rankings, then perhaps you can explain why you have the incumbent starter ranked not just lower but significantly lower (so as to no longer even be fantasy relevant) than the guy who couldn't beat out Ryquell Armstead and Chris Thompson, couldn't be traded for even a 7th round pick, and then cleared waivers to be signed to a one-year deal as an "insurance policy" (coach's words)?

It seems like you legitimately got the rankings reversed.

Oh, AxeElf ...

I have Ingram at 50 and Dobbins listed at 80, so early fifth and last part of the seventh round. So, 82 is not exactly irrelevant. Zack Moss is poised to be a co-starter in Buffalo and I usually see him lasting until the ninth round. Again, far from irrelevant. Dobbins and Jones' place on my Big Board isn't only a reflection of where I think they'll end up, but how much risk goes into relying on them all season long (and how much patience an owner needs to wait things out in some cases).

Fournette couldn't beat out Armstead and Thompson? Do you think that is what is happening in Duval? This shows some ignorance for an "expert" such as yourself. Armstead hardly participated in camp this summer, and Ozigbo has reportedly done enough in camp to either pass Armstead or split carries with him. Thompson was added to do his thing in the passing game. Jacksonville may not be tanking per se, but the Jags aren't trying very hard to win this year either. Fournette was going to help them win, or at least be more competitive. That's bad for business when you want to be in a spot to potentially land Trevor Lawrence.

Arians has a long history of saying one thing and doing another at RB. Maybe that changes this year. I wouldn't bet on it though.

I think RoJo still has a good chance of having an impact this season. I appear to be one of the few who thinks that. If you think my "take" is out there and reversed, take a sampling of other analysts' opinions. I spent a lot of time last night defending Jones, so I know most of the industry seems to think he is "done." I think Fournette is a slightly better talent, and I think it will play out that way. I can see Fournette getting more of the fantasy-friendly touches, although it wouldn't surprise me if Arians just goes with the "hot hand" either.

I don't pretend to know exactly how this thing is going to play out, which makes me different than most. One of my most important jobs is to assess risk and upside. I think I'm doing that here.

[AxeElf 787]

17 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I have Ingram at 50 and Dobbins listed at 80, so early fifth and last part of the seventh round. So, 82 is not exactly irrelevant.

Ok, I thought the rankings were among RBs--like you had Jones as the RB82 now or something.  82 overall certainly isn't irrelevant.

Still, I think it would be more helpful to rank the lead RB who is going to get more fantasy points ahead of the backup who is going to get fewer.

I don't PRETEND to know exactly how this will play out either; I'm Axe Elf.

P.S.  Not sure why they would want to Lose for Lawrence when they already have Minshew, but I guess some people are just never happy.

[The Football Guru 212]

29 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Still, I think it would be more helpful to rank the lead RB who is going to get more fantasy points ahead of the backup who is going to get fewer.

Ok, this would be where you and I disagree. I think Fournette will see more work than Jones at some point, probably beginning in October after Fournette has had a few weeks to learn the playbook a bit more. Could be hot-hand, RoJo could get featured all year. I just think it will be very hard to start either one with confidence very often outside of the layup matchups where TB can run 30 times.

[Serenity Now 44]

I don't know how it will play out, but if either one of these guys ends up in the dog house, jump ship. Arians isn't a forgive and forget coach. He's hard headed to a fault, and will choose to play "his guys" over someone more talented.

[The Football Guru 212]

6 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

I don't know how it will play out, but if either one of these guys ends up in the dog house, jump ship. Arians isn't a forgive and forget coach. He's hard headed to a fault, and will choose to play "his guys" over someone more talented.

Totally agreed.

[AxeElf 787]

19 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Ok, this would be where you and I disagree.

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders!

Only slightly less known than not getting involved in a land war in Asia and not going in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line, is to never disagree with Axe Elf in matters of fantasy football.

[The Football Guru 212]

24 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders!

Only slightly less known than not getting involved in a land war in Asia and not going in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line, is to never disagree with Axe Elf in matters of fantasy football.

I knew this would be my reaction getting involved in this conversation, but still ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mike FF Today 608]

Added the little people... Ks & D/ST.

[The Football Guru 212]

Most recent changes ...

AD release means Gibson moves up in a big way. (No. 80 overall) - Don't see him getting featured, more like Kamara lite

Bryce Love moves up and JD McKissic enters the rankings.

Shenault now at 150 ... probably should be higher, but I can't get excited about the TD upside in Duval even though I really like the player here.