Doug Orth's Big Boards 2020 - Top 200

[Mike FF Today 608]

Kicking these off today with a look at the top 175 for PPR leagues. Color-coded matchup chart included. Boards for Non-PPR and Half-Point PPR to follow.

Top 200 PPR - 8/25
Top 200 Half-Point PPR - 8/29/20
Top 200 Non-PPR - 8/30/20
Top 200 SuperFlex - 9/1/20
Ks & D/ST - 9/3/20
Top 225 FFPC - 9/5

Top 175 PPR - 8/12/20
Top 175 Non-PPR - 8/18/20
Top 175 Half-Point PPR - 8/22/20
Top 175 Superflex PPR - 8/22/20 
Top 175 FFPC - 8/23/20

[Matt Mueller 146]

Sanders over Zeke?

Thats a hot take 

[weepaws 2,460]

Wow great job, interesting outcomes.  

I cant wait to see the non ppr. 

[Matt Mueller 146]

Great work as always Doug! 
 

As a possible addition to the future columns which said WR 30, RB 22 could be something really helpful to sort values 

 

[Mike FF Today 608]

8 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

As a possible addition to the future columns which said WR 30, RB 22 could be something really helpful to sort values 

 

Yep, position ranks will be included in future updates.

[The Football Guru 212]

On 8/12/2020 at 12:39 PM, Matt Mueller said:

Sanders over Zeke?

Thats a hot take 

This will get changed moving forward. I got a bit carried away with my "lightening Zeke's workload to save him" logic and didn't correct it. I cannot defend going with Cook over Zeke either, especially given Cook's durability issues.

I am still very high on Sanders though.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Patrick Mahomes seems pretty low on the big board considering he can put up monster numbers, even in 4 point per pass td leagues.

Derrick Henry looks a little low after the insane second half of the season he had last year. I am weary of half of a season studs the following year, but I feel like Henry is going to avoid that pitfall. Kenyan Drake has a lot more risk to him than Henry imo.

I was actually thinking about posting a separate thread about Beckham. I do not like that guy at all. He is a straight diva who also doesn't seem to care about football all that much. I want no part of the cost of Beckham this year. I can't believe how many promising receivers he is being taken over in dynasty.

Sutton looks a little lower than I would put him, but his situation in Denver is not perfect. Do you fear Jeudy taking away too many targets? Do you fear Drew Lock not being great? Do you fear the lack of offensive imagination? Maybe the defense is pretty good and they don't need to score a lot? Those really are all valid concerns, well except the Jeudy one, I am not buying his impact in year one at all. The one thing that makes me take Sutton on just about every team, that guy is a freak. He is big, fast, hard to cover, and I think that Lock is going to realize that if he hasn't already. The talent is no joke with Sutton, and he is working toward that second contract. I want that hungry player who has the talent to match on my team

Ceedee Lamb only 4 spots behind Hilton? Idk about that one. Lamb may be third in the WR pecking order. Hilton is at least a very good veteran playing with a QB who throws the ball most often to the trustworthy veteran.

[stonewall 647]

1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Ceedee Lamb only 4 spots behind Hilton? Idk about that one.

Even with the potential negatives around CeeDee, I think talent wins out and he shocks the football world this season.

[weepaws 2,460]

Hey what did K Golladay do to you, that he was received such a disrespectful ranking.  

I think he could be have a real shot at being a top five wr with Stafford back.  

Thank you, once again great job. 

[The Football Guru 212]

7 hours ago, weepaws said:

Hey what did K Golladay do to you, that he was received such a disrespectful ranking.  

I think he could be have a real shot at being a top five wr with Stafford back.  

Thank you, once again great job. 

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/20_split_personalities_golladay.html

[Kopy 491]

Hey frozen, Denver's tough as h3ll to predict I think. Don't forget Hamler is also a good looking kid in his own right. Fant looks pretty good at TE. I've never been a big Gordon fan, but you got him and Lindsy at RB. Those are alot of mouths to feed, even for a good QB. To go along with Sutton and Juedy. I think the only thing we can be really sure of with Denver after this year, is whether or not Lock is any good. If you can't succeed with that surrounding talent, then you're not a NFL caliber QB.

 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, Kopy said:

I think the only thing we can be really sure of with Denver after this year, is whether or not Lock is any good. If you can't succeed with that surrounding talent, then you're not a NFL caliber QB.

Lock was pretty much killing it with the talent they had LAST year.  He went 4-1 in his 5 starts at the end of the year, with a win over playoff-bound Houston (in which he threw for 309/3) and their only loss coming at the hands of the eventual Super Bowl champions.

This is going to be such a random year that it's hard to predict anything with any confidence, but I have expected Denver to give the Chiefs a run for their money this season ever since that finish last year.  I would have expected them to be one of the surprise teams of 2020, if 2020 had gone normally.  With the talent they've got now, I could see Lock flirting with QB1 status in fantasy.  (QB 10-15)

[weepaws 2,460]

5 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/20_split_personalities_golladay.html

Thank you Guru.  

I know you haven’t but we’ll be coming out soon with your non ppr rankings.  

Let me ask you a question, and no feet to the fire, 14 team non ppr what round would you predict Gurley to be drafted in? 

Once again thank you very much.  

[weepaws 2,460]

Kupp wr21.  How come? Based on the end of last season?  

 

[weepaws 2,460]

5 hours ago, Kopy said:

Hey frozen, Denver's tough as h3ll to predict I think. Don't forget Hamler is also a good looking kid in his own right. Fant looks pretty good at TE. I've never been a big Gordon fan, but you got him and Lindsy at RB. Those are alot of mouths to feed, even for a good QB. To go along with Sutton and Juedy. I think the only thing we can be really sure of with Denver after this year, is whether or not Lock is any good. If you can't succeed with that surrounding talent, then you're not a NFL caliber QB.

 

Would agree, if Lock gets better this season, and I think he’ll do so, I think he’ll spread the wealth more than last season, I see Sutton at best posting what he did last season, but I think he’ll post less ff points this season, just to many good options on the team.  Plus with Gordon they have a rb that I think can receive 15 rush att per game, they didn’t have that with Lindsay, and Lindsay coming of the bench is going to back a impact of targets for Sutton.  

 

[The Football Guru 212]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Kupp wr21.  How come? Based on the end of last season?  

 

Partially the result of the end of last season. I go into more detail here in the Rams section:

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/20_pma_workload_projections_west.html

[weepaws 2,460]

3 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Partially the result of the end of last season. I go into more detail here in the Rams section:

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/20_pma_workload_projections_west.html

Good read, thank you. 

[Matt Mueller 146]

On 8/16/2020 at 5:02 AM, weepaws said:

Hey what did K Golladay do to you, that he was received such a disrespectful ranking.  

I think he could be have a real shot at being a top five wr with Stafford back.  

Thank you, once again great job. 

Gollady over Hopkins for me this year.  

 

I also concur Jones is basically being totally overlooked and has produced very similar to the big man when on the field.

[The Football Guru 212]

Guys, I apologize about not getting back to everyone yet. I have been balls to the wall for well over a week now. I will get to you in about a day or two in all likelihood.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Top 175 for Non-PPR is ready.

[ST_Pete 3]

Doug - superior work as always.  We had the discussion a few years back, but curious how you are standardizing scores.  Would actually like to see a write up on that some day.

 

For my own rankings, I do a standardized points per game average relative to a replacement player.  Essentially, I am computing a standardized value based draft grade.

[The Football Guru 212]

1 hour ago, ST_Pete said:

Doug - superior work as always.  We had the discussion a few years back, but curious how you are standardizing scores.  Would actually like to see a write up on that some day.

 

For my own rankings, I do a standardized points per game average relative to a replacement player.  Essentially, I am computing a standardized value based draft grade.

Thanks.

I think I can say he would be easy to walk you through the process if you were looking over my shoulder, but extremely difficult to explain if that wasn't the case. I used to use standard deviation to compare apples to oranges and help arrive at a draft score, but I have found a method that allows me to incorporate my projections along with my matchup analysis scores and apply that methodology across basically any league setup (not sure I want to start projecting big-play bonuses though).

[weepaws 2,460]

Guru great job.  

But.  

What Gurley a late rb2.  And Kupp also. 

Great job thank you.  

There might be other good place to get ff info, but ff is the best, because ff has the Guru. 

 

[The Football Guru 212]

39 minutes ago, weepaws said:

There might be other good place to get ff info, but ff is the best, because ff has the Guru. 

 

[The Football Guru 212]

46 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Guru great job.  

But.  

What Gurley a late rb2.  And Kupp also. 

Great job thank you.  

There might be other good place to get ff info, but ff is the best, because ff has the Guru. 

 

Gurley - I have him with 51 catches in 15 games, so he's going to take a hit in non-PPR IMO. Also, I'm trying to factor in potential absences, a likely mediocre defense (leading to more shootouts and less rushing) and OC Dirk Koetter's mostly awful history of getting much from his running game.

Kupp - I detailed my thoughts on him above. Maybe he is Goff's guy in the red zone. I don't know. What I do know is he needed extreme efficiency and some good TD luck late to be usable once the Rams went to more two-tight sets. Kupp as a perimeter receiver is also not the same as Kupp in the slot.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

On 8/16/2020 at 12:10 PM, Kopy said:

Hey frozen, Denver's tough as h3ll to predict I think. Don't forget Hamler is also a good looking kid in his own right. Fant looks pretty good at TE. I've never been a big Gordon fan, but you got him and Lindsy at RB. Those are alot of mouths to feed, even for a good QB. To go along with Sutton and Juedy. I think the only thing we can be really sure of with Denver after this year, is whether or not Lock is any good. If you can't succeed with that surrounding talent, then you're not a NFL caliber QB.

 

I am not buying any rookie receiver in Denver for this year. Sutton is just way more advanced and naturally talented than any of them. If anything they make defenses have to respect the other options on the field. 

[weepaws 2,460]

16 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Gurley - I have him with 51 catches in 15 games, so he's going to take a hit in non-PPR IMO. Also, I'm trying to factor in potential absences, a likely mediocre defense (leading to more shootouts and less rushing) and OC Dirk Koetter's mostly awful history of getting much from his running game.

Kupp - I detailed my thoughts on him above. Maybe he is Goff's guy in the red zone. I don't know. What I do know is he needed extreme efficiency and some good TD luck late to be usable once the Rams went to more two-tight sets. Kupp as a perimeter receiver is also not the same as Kupp in the slot.

Thank you. 

[Mike FF Today 608]

Added the Big Board for Half-Point PPR leagues.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Ohhh, Superflex.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Big Boards are expanding! Top 200 for PPR leagues. If you want to gain some knowledge and make better decisions on draft day, make sure you read Doug's analysis below his rankings.

[Serenity Now 44]

@The Football Guru - Jonathan Taylor seems to be a guy that people are either all in on or completely out on. You seem to fall into the category of all in. What kind of splits do you see in the back field? Also, all reports seem to indicate that Mack is having a great camp, does that make you worried at all?

Thank you in advance!

[The Football Guru 212]

2 hours ago, Serenity Now said:

@The Football Guru - Jonathan Taylor seems to be a guy that people are either all in on or completely out on. You seem to fall into the category of all in. What kind of splits do you see in the back field? Also, all reports seem to indicate that Mack is having a great camp, does that make you worried at all?

Thank you in advance!

Taylor will likely be one of those players that fantasy owners need to be patient with. I could easily see it being a situation where he will be a flex play most weeks through the Week 7 bye and a low-end RB1 afterward. In other words, draft someone like Mark Ingram to serve as your RB2 throughout the early part of the season.

At the moment, I have a 50-33-7 split in the backfield with Taylor in front, Mack in the middle and Hines bringing up the rear. Here's the thing: Indy should come pretty close to matching last year's 471 team rushing attempts (Brissett had 56, Rivers won't have near that many) in large part because the defense is better and Reich loves to run the ball anyway. If we subtract 20 carries for Rivers and Parris Campbell from a team total of roughly 450 attempts and assume I'm close on the splits, that leaves 430 for the RBs.  As it stands now, I have 234 carries for Taylor, 154 for Mack and 33 for Hines (421 total).

[AxeElf 787]

The problem with Jonathan Taylor is that he's from Wisconsin, so he can be presumptively assigned to the "BUST" bin without having to waste your season on him.

[The Football Guru 212]

Oh no ... not this topic again 

[jrokh 569]

11 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Oh no ... not this topic again 

Nah, Time for talk and weak Gnome trolls Are over.  Time for action, and letting players do the talking. When Taylor is a first or second round pick next year, feel free to revisit this thread as further proof just how little @AxeElf really knows about football...

[The Football Guru 212]

25 minutes ago, jrokh said:

When Taylor is a first or second round pick next year 

That's just it, I can see this happening. And it won't be just because Mack's contract is up. Taylor has some holes in his game, but I don't how the Colts can pretend they are making a playoff push in November and December if they aren't giving Taylor at least 16-18 carries in November and December.

This feels like Nick Chubb's rookie year all over again, just that Taylor is going about 8-10 rounds earlier and has a better o-line.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I love Taylor in dynasty but I just don't think I could pull the trigger in the 3rd-4th where hes seemed to creep up.

 

I partly think if people are paying for Taylor and Melvin Gordon that Mack and Lindsay are the value plays 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

In the first 6 rounds, I want to target guys that I know should be starters any given week.  I'm not taking Taylor where he's going because I don't see him getting that playing time this season.  I'll take him in the 7th or 8th round, but certainly not in the first 4 rounds.

[The Football Guru 212]

15 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

I love Taylor in dynasty but I just don't think I could pull the trigger in the 3rd-4th where hes seemed to creep up.

 

I partly think if people are paying for Taylor and Melvin Gordon that Mack and Lindsay are the value plays 

 

8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In the first 6 rounds, I want to target guys that I know should be starters any given week.  I'm not taking Taylor where he's going because I don't see him getting that playing time this season.  I'll take him in the 7th or 8th round, but certainly not in the first 4 rounds.

I can't argue with you guys. Taylor isn't for everyone and isn't going to be for everyone. He's the prime "let him set on someone else's roster until that team falls out of playoff contention and gets desperate" player. The problem is in the high-stakes leagues I play in, those owners don't often budge on those players. I tried like crazy to acquire Joe Mixon, Le'Veon Bell and Derrick Henry last season as those teams piled up loss after loss. The Mixon and Bell owners said they couldn't let go of their guys for anything less than one of my three top 10 WRs. I was able to get Henry b/c his owner liked Conner and I could also give him Mattison to handcuff Cook. My point: we can't assume trades just b/c we all like talk about making them.

Mack and Lindsay are definitely value plays, although I think Lindsay is more of a full-season option. Mack had the backfield to himself last year and was hard to start. I don't think that changes now.

I would just ask you this: IF Mack was lost for the season tomorrow, where would Taylor go? Again, he's not for everyone, but I think he will put fantasy teams on his back sometime before Thanksgiving. I also think he'll be worth starting in fantasy for most of the season before then.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

3 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

 

I can't argue with you guys. Taylor isn't for everyone and isn't going to be for everyone. He's the prime "let him set on someone else's roster until that team falls out of playoff contention and gets desperate" player. The problem is in the high-stakes leagues I play in, those owners don't often budge on those players. I tried like crazy to acquire Joe Mixon, Le'Veon Bell and Derrick Henry last season as those teams piled up loss after loss. The Mixon and Bell owners said they couldn't let go of their guys for anything less than one of my three top 10 WRs. I was able to get Henry b/c his owner liked Conner and I could also give him Mattison to handcuff Cook. My point: we can't assume trades just b/c we all like talk about making them.

Mack and Lindsay are definitely value plays, although I think Lindsay is more of a full-season option. Mack had the backfield to himself last year and was hard to start. I don't think that changes now.

I would just ask you this: IF Mack was lost for the season tomorrow, where would Taylor go? Again, he's not for everyone, but I think he will put fantasy teams on his back sometime before Thanksgiving. I also think he'll be worth starting in fantasy for most of the season before then.

If Mack is lost for the season, then the dynamic changes. He'll probably be an RB2 just because of volume.  I'd take in round 3 or 4, pending on how my first 2 picks fall.  I definitely won't be taking him in rounds 1 or 2 though.