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Mike Honcho

Tatis Jr. 340 Million!

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12 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Same guys touting exit velocity are the same ones who say “why don’t they just hit it the other way” when it comes to the shift. Nerds. 

And they will be the same guys who say none of it will matter if they win a WS.  Always a debatable fall back position.  

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19 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Same guys touting exit velocity are the same ones who say “why don’t they just hit it the other way” when it comes to the shift. Nerds. 

Tatis does hit the ball the other way so there you have it. I’ve watched at least 90% of his at bats in his career 

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8 minutes ago, posty said:

Wow, $340 million...

:doublethumbsup:

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17 minutes ago, edjr said:

I wasn't aware they have to stop paying him in 2024, or any year before 2035 if he flames out. Thanks for the guidance.

This is worse than the Miggy Cabrera contract. 

31 million a year until 2025. Laughable

 

Paying him has nothing to do with it.  If you have to wait until 2031 to come back and talk about this deal, you're going to be on the wrong side of the argument because if they get 10 great years out of him, then the last 4 are irrelevant.  If he wasn't worth the deal, you'll be able to come back here in 2024... you won't have to wait until 2031.

Cabrera's extention?  Based on what?  Cabrera was 35 when he signed that deal.  That was tragic.  Tatis is only 22 and he'll only be making $24M a year.  Based on the going rates of contracts, Tatis will only need to be a 4 WAR player (yearly), over the length of his contract for it to be justified.

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Paying him has nothing to do with it.  If you have to wait until 2031 to come back and talk about this deal, you're going to be on the wrong side of the argument because if they get 10 great years out of him, then the last 4 are irrelevant.  If he wasn't worth the deal, you'll be able to come back here in 2024... you won't have to wait until 2031.

Cabrera's extention?  Based on what?  Cabrera was 35 when he signed that deal.  That was tragic.  Tatis is only 22 and he'll only be making $24M a year.  Based on the going rates of contracts, Tatis will only need to be a 4 WAR player (yearly), over the length of his contract for it to be justified.

This guy gets it. They act like he’s a 30 year old on his final deal. He’s Manny. Had he not signed he would be a free agent after his 25 year old season and get at least a 10/300 deal. 

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Paying him has nothing to do with it.  If you have to wait until 2031 to come back and talk about this deal, you're going to be on the wrong side of the argument because if they get 10 great years out of him, then the last 4 are irrelevant.  If he wasn't worth the deal, you'll be able to come back here in 2024... you won't have to wait until 2031.

Cabrera's extention?  Based on what?  Cabrera was 35 when he signed that deal.  That was tragic.  Tatis is only 22 and he'll only be making $24M a year.  Based on the going rates of contracts, Tatis will only need to be a 4 WAR player (yearly), over the length of his contract for it to be justified.

Boom

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2 hours ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Tatis does hit the ball the other way so there you have it. I’ve watched at least 90% of his at bats in his career 

There were always players capable of doing that. We called them batting champs. People act like everyone could do it. The league wasn’t full of Tony Gwynn’s back in the day. Most hitters have always been pull hitters. The great ones weren’t. 

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San Diego has nothing to worry about with this contract, except injury, which I’m sure they are covered. If it doesn’t work out some dopey team like the Yankees, if Cashman is still in charge, or the Dodgers or Boston will take him as a salary dump. See Rodriguez, Alex. 

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4 hours ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

This guy gets it. They act like he’s a 30 year old on his final deal. He’s Manny. Had he not signed he would be a free agent after his 25 year old season and get at least a 10/300 deal. 

NO

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5 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

Yeah, I don't get it either.  What I do get is scouts have all off season to analyze a hitter's weaknesses and pitchers are great enough to hit those spots way more than they miss. 

The general measure of "lucky" hitting is BABIP.  Most guys hover around .300 BABIP.  But they can spend some time well below that. 

Mike Trout, one of the most profilic hitters of our generation, has a lifetime .348 BABIP or so.  That's absolutely ridiculous.

Tatis had a BABIP over .400 in his rookie year.  He WILL NOT hit like that for his career.  He came back down to earth some in year 2.  And likely has further to drop.

The Padres are complete idiots for giving him that deal.  That deal basically assumes he has a lifetime .400 BABIP.

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Eddie Rosario last year had a career-low .248 BABIP.  He is a MUCH better hitter than that.  He was terribly unlucky last year.  You absolutely buy low on him.  But teams are focking stupid.

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7 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

I'll put his out there right now.  Tatis will never come close to the production of his rookie year.

Wow, that's pretty bold. 

Agree with a lot your points and think 143 games is way too small of a sample size to award that big of a contract, but I'm not going anywhere near the limb you just walked out on. 

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51 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

The general measure of "lucky" hitting is BABIP.  Most guys hover around .300 BABIP.  But they can spend some time well below that. 

Mike Trout, one of the most profilic hitters of our generation, has a lifetime .348 BABIP or so.  That's absolutely ridiculous.

Tatis had a BABIP over .400 in his rookie year.  He WILL NOT hit like that for his career.  He came back down to earth some in year 2.  And likely has further to drop.

The Padres are complete idiots for giving him that deal.  That deal basically assumes he has a lifetime .400 BABIP.

Last year prorated he was worth 7+ WAR. That is surplus value of 50+ mil annually. Nobody thinks he will have a babip of 400. With as hard as he hits the ball ie THE HARDEST in baseball a .330 babip is reasonable. That being said it’s 24 mil AAV. Even in years his bat might be down he still produces value as an elite defender with elite speed and elite base running. He’s a second year player who was in the running for MVP. You act like he has no room to improve. All the dude has done is produce. I don’t understand the hate. But you enjoy your Eddie rosarios 

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1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

He is going to get focked in taxes and he owes an investment company $27m right off the bat. :o

He will make that in royalties from merch

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1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

He is going to get focked in taxes and he owes an investment company $27m right off the bat. :o

Yeah that company sure made out on that hedge. 

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On 2/19/2021 at 1:50 PM, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

 You act like he has no room to improve. All the dude has done is produce. I don’t understand the hate. But you enjoy your Eddie rosarios 

The odds of him EVER doing better than his rookie year are very poor. 

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Tatis signed a "cash advance" as a minor leaguer with a company that, in exchange for the instant cash, will forever take a cut of his future earnings.  Unknown is the terms of the deal.

https://sports.yahoo.com/fernando-tatis-jr-padres-340-million-minor-league-deal-mlb-000100819.html

Fernando Tatis Jr. won't be seeing all of that $340 million, thanks to a deal he made as a minor leaguer
Jack Baer
Thu, February 18, 2021, 4:01 PM

Baseball's latest massive payday arrived on Wednesday, this time in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 14-year, $340 million extension with the San Diego Padres.

The deal is the longest in baseball history, the third largest in terms of total money committed and will keep a potential face of MLB in San Diego for the long term. It's a transformative deal for the Padres and the league as a whole. Tatis, however, won't be be able to enjoy as much of it as you would expect.

The reason: a deal he made as a 19-year-old, more than a year before his MLB debut.

What is Big League Advance, and why is it getting part of Fernando Tatis' contract?

As The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal noted Thursday, a portion of Tatis' deal with the Padres will be going to Big League Advance, a company with a very specific, and some would say predatory, business model.

Essentially, Big League Advance is an investment company, but instead of investing in businesses and properties, it invests in players. The company approaches minor leaguers and offers them a one-time payment in exchange for a small but significant cut of their earnings as an MLB player.

If the minor leaguer's career doesn't pan out and he never makes it to MLB's lucrative free agency, it's a good deal for the player. However, if that player, say, becomes an MVP candidate and signs one of the largest contracts in baseball history, it's a bonanza for Big League Advance.

The latter case is exactly what will happen in the case of Tatis, who reportedly signed a deal with Big League Advance during the 2017-18 offseason. The exact amount Tatis will be handing over to Big League Advance is unknown, but the company's website offers the following pay structure as an example:

For example, Big League Advance may offer a player $50,000 for every 1% of his future professional earnings. If a player wanted to sign a deal for 5%, he would receive $250,000, or if he wanted to sign a deal for 10%, he would receive $500,000. While our offer amounts are non-negotiable, the percentage the player would like to give up is up to the player.

So if Tatis took the largest payment, he would be set to pay Big League Advance $34 million over the course of 14 years. Not every player Big League Advance buys into will make the majors, but the possibility of landing a breakout player like Tatis seems to make it all worth it.

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1 hour ago, JustinCharge said:

Tatis signed a "cash advance" as a minor leaguer with a company that, in exchange for the instant cash, will forever take a cut of his future earnings.  Unknown is the terms of the deal.

https://sports.yahoo.com/fernando-tatis-jr-padres-340-million-minor-league-deal-mlb-000100819.html

Fernando Tatis Jr. won't be seeing all of that $340 million, thanks to a deal he made as a minor leaguer
Jack Baer
Thu, February 18, 2021, 4:01 PM

Baseball's latest massive payday arrived on Wednesday, this time in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 14-year, $340 million extension with the San Diego Padres.

The deal is the longest in baseball history, the third largest in terms of total money committed and will keep a potential face of MLB in San Diego for the long term. It's a transformative deal for the Padres and the league as a whole. Tatis, however, won't be be able to enjoy as much of it as you would expect.

The reason: a deal he made as a 19-year-old, more than a year before his MLB debut.

What is Big League Advance, and why is it getting part of Fernando Tatis' contract?

As The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal noted Thursday, a portion of Tatis' deal with the Padres will be going to Big League Advance, a company with a very specific, and some would say predatory, business model.

Essentially, Big League Advance is an investment company, but instead of investing in businesses and properties, it invests in players. The company approaches minor leaguers and offers them a one-time payment in exchange for a small but significant cut of their earnings as an MLB player.

If the minor leaguer's career doesn't pan out and he never makes it to MLB's lucrative free agency, it's a good deal for the player. However, if that player, say, becomes an MVP candidate and signs one of the largest contracts in baseball history, it's a bonanza for Big League Advance.

The latter case is exactly what will happen in the case of Tatis, who reportedly signed a deal with Big League Advance during the 2017-18 offseason. The exact amount Tatis will be handing over to Big League Advance is unknown, but the company's website offers the following pay structure as an example:

For example, Big League Advance may offer a player $50,000 for every 1% of his future professional earnings. If a player wanted to sign a deal for 5%, he would receive $250,000, or if he wanted to sign a deal for 10%, he would receive $500,000. While our offer amounts are non-negotiable, the percentage the player would like to give up is up to the player.

So if Tatis took the largest payment, he would be set to pay Big League Advance $34 million over the course of 14 years. Not every player Big League Advance buys into will make the majors, but the possibility of landing a breakout player like Tatis seems to make it all worth it.

On the moon - we already alluded to this Justin 

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2 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

The odds of him EVER doing better than his rookie year are very poor. 

and the odds of him not being worth 5 WAR annually are very poor as well

 

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9 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

and the odds of him not being worth 5 WAR annually are very poor as well

 

And the odds of him being traded to a big market team down the road are near certain. 

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1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

And the odds of him being traded to a big market team down the road are near certain. 

I doubt that, the Padres are going to be one of the biggest markets going forward

top 10 as long as Seidler is alive

 

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11 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

I doubt that, the Padres are going to be one of the biggest markets going forward

top 10 as long as Seidler is alive

 

So was Texas. 

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5 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Texas didnt have the farm system to sustain it though

 

They did in the beginning. That’s why A Rod signed there. 

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1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

They did in the beginning. That’s why A Rod signed there. 

guess id have to look back, Padres just moved over 30 prospects and still have the most top 100 prospects including two top 10

I am trying to remember any prospects that Texas produced back then

 

 

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15 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

guess id have to look back, Padres just moved over 30 prospects and still have the most top 100 prospects including two top 10

I am trying to remember any prospects that Texas produced back then

 

 

It doesn’t matter if they did. It’s what they were telling him. Farm systems don’t stay at the top for long. You start winning and getting worse picks if it works out. 

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3 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It doesn’t matter if they did. It’s what they were telling him. Farm systems don’t stay at the top for long. You start winning and getting worse picks if it works out. 

outside of Gore, none of the Padres top prospects are draft picks, they are always top 3 international signing

 

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On 2/20/2021 at 5:48 PM, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

guess id have to look back, Padres just moved over 30 prospects and still have the most top 100 prospects including two top 10

I am trying to remember any prospects that Texas produced back then

 

 

rays have the most top 100 prospects.  they have 1, 19, 34, 50, 72, 84, 85, 90. padres have the 6, 8, 45, 62.

but yah the rays can trade snell because they have young arms coming up.

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indians have a chain of trades going on.  the indians signed bartolo colon in 1993.  they traded colon in 02 and in return got back cliff lee.  in 2009, they traded lee and in return got carlos carassco and jason donald.  

the carlos carassco branch just got sent away in 2021 in a package for isaiah greene, josh wolf, andres gimenez, and ahmed rosario.

the jason donald branch was traded in 2012 along with OF shin-soo choo, lars anderson and tony sipp in a 3 team trade in return for travor bauer.  bauer was traded in another 3 team trade for logan allen and franmil reyes.

this chain has so far involved 3 Cy Young award winners (colon, lee, bauer) for the moment it is up to logan allen to win a cy young.  another oddity is that the indians drafted another logan allen last year.  both logan allens are lefty pitchers.

 

you can win via the draft, via top international signings, or by trading for prospects.

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I know the chargers are in LA now, but is San Diego the only place with a baseball and a football team that never won a championship in either? 

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47 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I know the chargers are in LA now, but is San Diego the only place with a baseball and a football team that never won a championship in either? 

Yes.

Although in modern times, you might better ask about Super Bowls / World Series.  Even then, you are only adding Cleveland.
 

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12 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I know the chargers are in LA now, but is San Diego the only place with a baseball and a football team that never won a championship in either? 

you can add basketball too

ironically they also have the winningest franchise in professional sports history

The San Diego Sockers won 13 championships in 16 seasons of Indoor Soccer

 

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There are 4 teams that have never won the Lamar Hunt AFC trophy:  The Browns, Texans, Jaguars, and Jets.  The Jets went to the Super Bowl before the Lamar Hunt trophy existed.

Only 1 team has never won the George Halas NFC trophy:  The Lions.

The last team to win their first conference trophy was the Chiefs 2 years ago.  And the trophy is named after a Chief.

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Who holds the all time home run record for the Padres? 

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21 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Who holds the all time home run record for the Padres? 

Tony Gwynn

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