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Fumbleweed

**Round Eleven-Sixteen Commentary**

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9 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Ray ran into unexpected travel this week and has asked me to make his remaining picks for him. I will attempt to look at past drafts and pick a player or two (or defense) that he has liked in the past. This should allow us to make more progress today. 

Would love to see us finish today

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4 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Agree. Worth a flier here for me, though. Should Smith get hurt or miss time, Henry could be a borderline TE1. 

I'll go a step further.

This is why I questioned the Jonnu Smith pick.  Make no mistake, New England isn't a great offense, and they're hindered under center.

Belichick has coveted Henry for over a year, and he threw $37 million at him for 3 years.  There might not be a great target in New England, but if there is, Hunter Henry is it.  None of last year's top receivers encouraged Bill enough to not go out and replace them all.

It's all flyers and hopefuls and prospects at this point, but Henry is the upside, and a potential steal, in my opinion.

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Someone text me after Wonder picks.

I'm napping.

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Sometimes you gotta say, "what the fock?"

I kept missing out on my QB2 targets. If Mahomes goes down, I'm probably boned anyway. This late, they're all fliers anyway, might as well take the biggest upside.

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I was really close to taking Watson instead of Big Ben, had been thinking about it for a couple rounds actually.  If I had waited longer for a QB1 I probably would have pulled the trigger, then added a 3rd QB just in case.  There's just so much unknown surrounding him right now.

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I figured it was a good time to grab my DST before there's a run on them.  The Colts were solid last year and should be able to continue that again this year.

My next pick was Cohen and it was a just for the hell of it pick.  I'm a Bears fan and I've seen the explosive plays he can make.

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3 minutes ago, worm said:

I was really close to taking Watson instead of Big Ben, had been thinking about it for a couple rounds actually.  If I had waited longer for a QB1 I probably would have pulled the trigger, then added a 3rd QB just in case.  There's just so much unknown surrounding him right now.

Would you seriously draft three QBs in a regular draft?  I rarely ever even draft a second QB in my leagues.

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So, was my selection of a defense at 13.09 about right then, given that 3 more were taken by 14.12? Just not sure when to start taking a defense, my preference is before a kicker. Just curious on everyone's thoughts?

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Would you seriously draft three QBs in a regular draft?  I rarely ever even draft a second QB in my leagues.

I have.

I've done it in the IBL, even.  Sometimes it just makes sense.

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1 minute ago, Dan said:

I have.

I've done it in the IBL, even.  Sometimes it just makes sense.

In a league where you can only start one QB and you get to pick up waivers it doesn't make much sense to me.

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I drafted three QBs in this draft already. My first was a safe, but uninspiring pick (Matt Ryan). My second was a rookie (Trevor Lawrence). I needed a third with some upside and relative stability (Fitzpatrick). I would likely keep all three in September and then try to cut it down to two by October. I'm not comfortable with the position as a whole, so I needed options. 

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Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

In a league where you can only start one QB and you get to pick up waivers it doesn't make much sense to me.

I hear that.  But everyone has access to the waivers.  And if you don't pick up a clear top tier, taking multiples hedges the bet, and allows you to find the one that's going to be the hot hand.

But let's compare to, say, the 5th RB or WR on many teams here.  What's their intrinsic value?  You're hoping that there's a gem, and that he does more than a 13th/14th rounder should.  Discluding QBs from that thought process doesn't make sense.

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

In a league where you can only start one QB and you get to pick up waivers it doesn't make much sense to me.

It does when you are uncomfortable with the two you have chosen. I felt much better about my group overall by adding Fitzpatrick to the mix. 

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7 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Would you seriously draft three QBs in a regular draft?  I rarely ever even draft a second QB in my leagues.

In a regular draft, probably not.  I would have picked him and waited then made moves as necessary.  The 3 QB thought was best ball strategy making an appearance.

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Just now, Fumbleweed said:

It does when you are uncomfortable with the two you have chosen. I felt much better about my group overall by adding Fitzpatrick to the mix. 

Are you thinking in terms of a best ball league or standard league?  In best ball it makes sense but I don't think it makes as much sense in standard.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Are you thinking in terms of a best ball league or standard league?  In best ball it makes sense but I don't think it makes as much sense in standard.

I don't factor best ball into my decisions for this mock all that much. To do so defeats the spirit of trying to make it a mock that is true to a draft for a regular league. I am a big believer that you can't win in fantasy football with a subpar QB. You don't have to have a top-3 option, even a top-5 option... but you need a guy that can be counted on for top 6-8 production week in and week out. If you don't have that guy most likely, you can increase your chances of getting that guy by adding a third option provided that option has some upside. Fitzpatrick fit that bill for me. 

I have made my feelings about QB well known over the years in this draft. I think the position is generally undervalued and I don't want to be left with looking to choose between Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater off the waiver wire when I want to add one. 

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13 minutes ago, remote controller said:

Nothing like the feeling of getting your Def sniped in the 15th round. 

:ninja:

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33 minutes ago, robb said:

So, was my selection of a defense at 13.09 about right then, given that 3 more were taken by 14.12? Just not sure when to start taking a defense, my preference is before a kicker. Just curious on everyone's thoughts?

It's certainly better to start a run rather than end one. If there's no position players that stand out, you can grab one before the run starts and see what falls back to you later.

But kicker and D/ST are so unpredictable year to year, it's complete guess work.

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Booker - I think the Giants brought him in to be an every down back if they need him (i.e if my first round pick isn't ready or goes down again). There is still one RB out there that I expect the be the starting RB for their NFL team for at least the first half of the season. Wondering if/when he gets picked. 

 

DST - I've always waited based on the scoring system but admittedly that may have been updated to give DST more value and I always forget.

 

3 QB's - Not something I've ever done in a regular league or a BB format so my personal opinion isn't swayed by BB but I don't see the benefit in BB either. Well, let me rephrase that. I guess if you're worried that one or both of your QB's could lose their job or get injured, having a 3rd certainly helps, but when we only draft 16 rounds and must draft a DST and Kicker and draft based on starting 2RB and 3WR, I would much rather use that roster spot on a RB or WR and have a roster with either 4RB/6WR or 5/5. I'd be much more concerned with injuries to those positions.

Im probably more likely to draft a 3rd QB in a redraft where I dont HAVE to draft a kicker. Maybe i'd rather take a chance on a certain rookie QB who can run a little and see how they are progressing throughout the pre season. Maybe I catch lightning in a bottle. 

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Boy, it's almost like I predicted it. . .

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Ray needs a handcuff for Jonathan Taylor. Hines or Mack? 

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Hines.

ICEMAN

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1 minute ago, ICEMAN said:

Hines.

ICEMAN

Roger that. Onward. 

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1 minute ago, Matts Eagles said:

In meetings all afternoon, can you pick best d/ST in round 15 and k in round 16, please

Sure. Best according to what? 

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SF or NE maybe.

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2 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Will combine both for the ultimate selections! :wub:

Thanks Fumble. It’s his pick now and I am certain he will be pleased with whoever you take for him.

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18 minutes ago, robb said:

Thanks Fumble. It’s his pick now and I am certain he will be pleased with whoever you take for him.

Almost his pick. Shovel must pick first. 

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Yeeesh. Those last two picks hurt to make.

ICEMAN

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Well done on this draft guys. Fastest one yet. Let the bashing begin!

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WhiteWonder

"There is still one RB out there that I expect the be the starting RB for their NFL team for at least the first half of the season. Wondering if/when he gets picked."

I know who you are talking about here and I almost took him. But, I wanted my 6th WR over a 5th RB otherwise I wanted him! Let's compare notes on WHO after the draft.

 

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25 minutes ago, robb said:

WhiteWonder

"There is still one RB out there that I expect the be the starting RB for their NFL team for at least the first half of the season. Wondering if/when he gets picked."

I know who you are talking about here and I almost took him. But, I wanted my 6th WR over a 5th RB otherwise I wanted him! Let's compare notes on WHO after the draft.

 

I think I know who it is, and I almost picked him too.  Since these last three picks have to be kickers anyway, was it Tevin Coleman?

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Mr. Irrelevant of the 2021 Mock Draft is, Wil Lutz.  He didn't have a great season last year and who knows what their offense is going to be like now, but Lutz is a good kicker and gets to kick inside for at least half his games.  Regardless, it's just a kicker and that's why I drafted him last. 

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42 minutes ago, worm said:

I think I know who it is, and I almost picked him too.  Since these last three picks have to be kickers anyway, was it Tevin Coleman?

Tevin Coleman was my guess. Why wasn't he selected?????

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