***Wagering thread***

[mattman7168 39]

20 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Yeah I saw that alt spread in DK, but I didn't go as far as seeing what the odds were for doing that vs a straight teaser.  You would assume they are the same but I'm not sure.  The one I looked at was -140 which seems low.

The odds are slightly better with a straight teaser rather than setting the alternate spread. Not a big difference but a difference nonetheless. I experimented with these last night and discovered the different ways to set up the parlays.

[GutterBoy 2,898]

Just now, mattman7168 said:

The odds are slightly better with a straight teaser rather than setting the alternate spread. Not a big difference but a difference nonetheless. I experimented with these last night and discovered the different ways to set up the parlays.

Cool, thanks for sharing and doing the math for us.

[bostonlager 2,664]

22 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Yeah I saw that alt spread in DK, but I didn't go as far as seeing what the odds were for doing that vs a straight teaser.  You would assume they are the same but I'm not sure.  The one I looked at was -140 which seems low.

Do not play teasers if they are priced -140. Will be almost impossible to churn a profit. 

-120 is the highest I go. 

[GutterBoy 2,898]

2 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Do not play teasers if they are priced -140. Will be almost impossible to churn a profit. 

-120 is the highest I go. 

Yeah, I usually see -120, -140 seems too low.

[bostonlager 2,664]

1 minute ago, GutterBoy said:

Yeah, I usually see -120, -140 seems too low.

FD will allow you to do 5 pointers for -110. It only works for 7.5 and 2.5, but I've been doing those too. 

[Horseman 2,367]

8 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Do not play teasers if they are priced -140. Will be almost impossible to churn a profit. 

-120 is the highest I go. 

Always -110 at sb.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Just now, Horseman said:

Always -110 at sb.

sportsbetting.ag? What are you clicking on to get that? All my teasers there are -120

[Horseman 2,367]

1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

sportsbetting.ag? What are you clicking on to get that? All my teasers there are -120

Sorry, I was wong. 

I tried a bunch of combinations.  Looks like they are making up for the wong.  -115 if it's one team through the 3 and 7 and -120 if it's two teams wonged.

 

[Fireballer 2,639]

Keep an eye on Ravens line.  It’s -3/-105 right now signaling that it may pop to -2.5. Classic pros/Joes.  Everyone is in love with Det who will be missing Montgomery and Goff outdoors in 15 mph winds is suspect. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

2 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Keep an eye on Ravens line.  It’s -3/-105 right now signaling that it may pop to -2.5. Classic pros/Joes.  Everyone is in love with Det who will be missing Montgomery and Goff outdoors in 15 mph winds is suspect. 

I like the Ravens in this one whatever the spread ends up.

[kilroy69 1,216]

 

I like the saints to cover the points and the under of 40.5. Saints defense is 5th against the pass and 10th in rushing while the Jags are 18th against the run and 28th against the pass. One of these things is not like the other and it is the Jags. 

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game is where I get my stats from 

 

My parlay on the game tonight is 

Michael Thomas over 44.5

Alvin Kamara over 45 rushing and 45 receiving. 

Chris olave 60 plus receiving yards 

Christian Kirk over 45 recieving yards 

Saints moneyline 

50 dollars @ +2500 for a payout of 1300 possibly 

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

I went Saints tonight as well.

[mattman7168 39]

Fireballer posted about PIne Sports earlier. Based on their research of past games I went with the following for a parlay:

Kamara o 48.5 rush

Kamara o 31.5 receiving

Ridley over 52.5 receivieng

Ridley over 4.5 recep

M Thomas over 4.5 recep

M Thomas ove 51.5 receiving

[WhiteWonder 2,677]

Sorry I didn’t post these 

Kamara O 3.5 rec

Kamara O 30.5 rec yards

Olave O 4.5 rec

Kirk O 4.5 rec

Kirk O 54.5 rec yards 

some are on their way, let’s see. Should have grabbed ETN anytime TD. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

On 10/18/2023 at 7:36 PM, bostonlager said:

Jacksonville at New Orleans

Alvin Kamara o 30.5 receiving

Alvin Kamara o 4.5 receptions

 

Trevor Lawrence availability focks this game. In Geek Ball league edjr has Alvin Kamara and I play him this week. , so I'm betting on his overs and I still win if he sucks

Winners before halftime.

[mattman7168 39]

1 hour ago, mattman7168 said:

Fireballer posted about PIne Sports earlier. Based on their research of past games I went with the following for a parlay:

Kamara o 48.5 rush

Kamara o 31.5 receiving

Ridley over 52.5 receivieng

Ridley over 4.5 recep

M Thomas over 4.5 recep

M Thomas ove 51.5 receiving

Looks like a bust as Thomas and Ridley have zero catches through the first half.

 

[WhiteWonder 2,677]

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Sorry I didn’t post these 

Kamara O 3.5 rec

Kamara O 30.5 rec yards

Olave O 4.5 rec

Kirk O 4.5 rec

Kirk O 54.5 rec yards 

some are on their way, let’s see. Should have grabbed ETN anytime TD. 

Clean sweep 🧹 in a parlay 

[bostonlager 2,664]

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Clean sweep 🧹 in a parlay 

Nice hit. What were your payout odds? 

[WhiteWonder 2,677]

+675ish. You have to be +400 or longer to qualify for the FanDuel no sweat and the Kamara receptions prop was -180. Usually I can build a qualifying parlay with 3-4 props but this took 5

[Horseman 2,367]

UFC 294 kicks off a power packed final quarter of 2023 of fights.

Machachev -270.  Both arguably the best pound for pound, difference is Machachev has 10 more pounds.

Chimaev by decision. +250  Usman last fight underwhelming.  

Russian Parlay: Ankalaev/Aliskerov/Nurmagomedov  +125

Elliott +340

Peek by TKO/KO +100  8 wins, 8 KOs.

Basharat by decision. -150

Dumas -240

Jubli -280

Naimov +265   Big upset of Jamie Mullarkey last fight.

Dudakova -550  Big number, but, this girl is special.

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

Going to give my picks on the rest of the NFL games this week and the ones with a asterisk symbol are the ones I really like and are going to parlay.

Bucs - 2.5 over the Falcons, also like the under 37 in this one

* Pats + 8.5 over Bills O/U is 40 so will take the points in a low scoring game. Hope Mac Jones don't F me again

* Colts + 3 over Browns - Their at home and money will be on the Browns after beating the 49ers

Bears +2.5 over Raiders - Their at home and O/U is 37 so should be low score & taking the points

* Giants + 2.5 over Washington 

* Seahawks - 8 over Cards - O/U 44.5 Should be enough points for them to cover

Steelers +3 over Rams- Pitt is usually good after the bye week

* Broncos +1 over Packers - who in their right mind would take them with only getting 1 point? I would and they have to win a game at some point, Trap or set up game

* Chiefs -5.5 over Chargers O/U 48  should put up enough points and rebound after their loss

Eagles 2.5 over Miami - Eagles should rebound and more money will be on the Dolphins in this one

Vikes + 7 over 49ers 

[WhiteWonder 2,677]

I'll take a look at player props today, since I have time and see what I like for Sunday. I usually don't look until saturday evening or sunday morning but might not have time this week

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

Oh don't forget to take Penn State and the points, Penn State has covered all season and also like them ML.

[bostonlager 2,664]

6 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

+675ish. You have to be +400 or longer to qualify for the FanDuel no sweat and the Kamara receptions prop was -180. Usually I can build a qualifying parlay with 3-4 props but this took 5

A 5 legger should pay around +2400. Play the props straight up. Glad you hit that, but FD is focking you

[WhiteWonder 2,677]

4 hours ago, bostonlager said:

A 5 legger should pay around +2400. Play the props straight up. Glad you hit that, but FD is focking you

sure, when each leg is -110 or longer odds.  the parlay I built had a bunch of short odds props. 

Kamara over 3.5 receptions for example was -180. Other books likely had it set at 4.5 for longer odds. I also believe the 4.5 reception totals for Kirk and Olave were in the -140 to -150 range.   

I just built a similar 5 legger with similar short odds props and it was +720   versus a 5 legger with all -110 and -105 being +2600

FD isn't focking me, I'm technically focking myself by choosing short odds props. They sre giving correct payouts for the odds that are getting parlayed together. I don't have time to shop around multiple sports books to find the best prop odds. I highly doubt other books were offering Kamara Over 3.5 at -110 or something. More likely they had the total at 4.5

[WhiteWonder 2,677]

Props for Sunday 1PM games

NYG/WSH

Logan Thomas O 25.5 rec yds
Scary Terry O 4.5 receptions
Brian Robinson Anytime TD

BUF/NE

Diggs O 87.5 rec yds    and    O 6.5 receptions
Allen O 1.5 pass TDs
Bourne O 3.5 receptions   and   O 37.5 rec yds

ATL/TB

Bijan O 3.5 receptions
Jonnu Smith O 31.5 re yds

Det/Bal

Goff O 1.5 pass TDs
Amon-Ra O 5.5 receptions

LV/CHI

Mayer O 2.5 receptions   and   O 21.5 rec yds

CLE/IND

Ford O 50.5 rush yds
 

[bostonlager 2,664]

13 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

sure, when each leg is -110 or longer odds.  the parlay I built had a bunch of short odds props. 

Kamara over 3.5 receptions for example was -180. Other books likely had it set at 4.5 for longer odds. I also believe the 4.5 reception totals for Kirk and Olave were in the -140 to -150 range.   

I just built a similar 5 legger with similar short odds props and it was +720   versus a 5 legger with all -110 and -105 being +2600

FD isn't focking me, I'm technically focking myself by choosing short odds props. They sre giving correct payouts for the odds that are getting parlayed together. I don't have time to shop around multiple sports books to find the best prop odds. I highly doubt other books were offering Kamara Over 3.5 at -110 or something. More likely they had the total at 4.5

I got you. I knew they were the off ball on Kamara receptions, but didn’t realize they were short on the others. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

23 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Going to give my picks on the rest of the NFL games this week and the ones with a asterisk symbol are the ones I really like and are going to parlay.

Bucs - 2.5 over the Falcons, also like the under 37 in this one

* Pats + 8.5 over Bills O/U is 40 so will take the points in a low scoring game. Hope Mac Jones don't F me again

* Colts + 3 over Browns - Their at home and money will be on the Browns after beating the 49ers

Bears +2.5 over Raiders - Their at home and O/U is 37 so should be low score & taking the points

* Giants + 2.5 over Washington 

* Seahawks - 8 over Cards - O/U 44.5 Should be enough points for them to cover

Steelers +3 over Rams- Pitt is usually good after the bye week

* Broncos +1 over Packers - who in their right mind would take them with only getting 1 point? I would and they have to win a game at some point, Trap or set up game

* Chiefs -5.5 over Chargers O/U 48  should put up enough points and rebound after their loss

Eagles 2.5 over Miami - Eagles should rebound and more money will be on the Dolphins in this one

Vikes + 7 over 49ers 

I forgot Ravens -3. I parlayed all these for $1 lol pays 1,111

[Fireballer 2,639]

Washington ML -160.  After those two missed PI penalties, it’s obvious the refs want Huskies

Edit:

LMAO….I hit submit as Wash took pick 6 to the house

[GutterBoy 2,898]

Lots of sides I like today

NYG +2.5

TB -2.5

Balt -3.0

LAR -3.0

LAC +5.5

MIA  +2.5

[listen2me 23 1,825]

On 10/20/2023 at 11:27 PM, WhiteWonder said:

Props for Sunday 1PM games

NYG/WSH

Logan Thomas O 25.5 rec yds
Scary Terry O 4.5 receptions
Brian Robinson Anytime TD

BUF/NE

Diggs O 87.5 rec yds    and    O 6.5 receptions
Allen O 1.5 pass TDs
Bourne O 3.5 receptions   and   O 37.5 rec yds

ATL/TB

Bijan O 3.5 receptions
Jonnu Smith O 31.5 re yds

Det/Bal

Goff O 1.5 pass TDs
Amon-Ra O 5.5 receptions

LV/CHI

Mayer O 2.5 receptions   and   O 21.5 rec yds

CLE/IND

Ford O 50.5 rush yds
 

Diggs has been super consistent.   I can see him having another big day.  But Pat's do like to double/shade number 1s.  If they want they can probably almost take him out of the game. 

[Horseman 2,367]

On 10/20/2023 at 9:24 AM, Horseman said:

UFC 294 kicks off a power packed final quarter of 2023 of fights.

Machachev -270.  Both arguably the best pound for pound, difference is Machachev has 10 more pounds.

Chimaev by decision. +250  Usman last fight underwhelming.  

Russian Parlay: Ankalaev/Aliskerov/Nurmagomedov  +125

Elliott +340

Peek by TKO/KO +100  8 wins, 8 KOs.

Basharat by decision. -150

Dumas -240

Jubli -280

Naimov +265   Big upset of Jamie Mullarkey last fight.

Dudakova -550  Big number, but, this girl is special.

6-3-1

A couple really close fights away from another huge day.  

 

[WhiteWonder 2,677]

On 10/20/2023 at 11:27 PM, WhiteWonder said:

Props for Sunday 1PM games

NYG/WSH

Logan Thomas O 25.5 rec yds  
Scary Terry O 4.5 receptions  
Brian Robinson Anytime TD  

BUF/NE

Diggs O 87.5 rec yds and    O 6.5 receptions  
Allen O 1.5 pass TDs  
Bourne O 3.5 receptions  and   O 37.5 rec yds  

ATL/TB

Bijan O 3.5 receptions  
Jonnu Smith O 31.5 re yds  

Det/Bal

Goff O 1.5 pass TDs  
Amon-Ra O 5.5 receptions  

LV/CHI

Mayer O 2.5 receptions and   O 21.5 rec yds  

CLE/IND

Ford O 50.5 rush yds  
 

8-7.  Should have known better with Diggs but the Bijan sickness was out of nowhere and I’m surprised Jonnu and Mayer didn’t ultimately hit. 
 

oh well. Coulda been worse 

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

On 10/20/2023 at 12:58 PM, BeenHereBefore said:

Going to give my picks on the rest of the NFL games this week and the ones with a asterisk symbol are the ones I really like and are going to parlay.

Bucs - 2.5 over the Falcons, also like the under 37 in this one

* Pats + 8.5 over Bills O/U is 40 so will take the points in a low scoring game. Hope Mac Jones don't F me again

* Colts + 3 over Browns - Their at home and money will be on the Browns after beating the 49ers

Bears +2.5 over Raiders - Their at home and O/U is 37 so should be low score & taking the points

* Giants + 2.5 over Washington 

* Seahawks - 8 over Cards - O/U 44.5 Should be enough points for them to cover

Steelers +3 over Rams- Pitt is usually good after the bye week

* Broncos +1 over Packers - who in their right mind would take them with only getting 1 point? I would and they have to win a game at some point, Trap or set up game

* Chiefs -5.5 over Chargers O/U 48  should put up enough points and rebound after their loss

Eagles 2.5 over Miami - Eagles should rebound and more money will be on the Dolphins in this one

Vikes + 7 over 49ers 

Focking Tampa cost me two 3 dollar 6 team parlays, one for $140 something and one for a $150 something..  I did hit a $2  4 leg for $41, have one later games 6 team one going. I been good on these the last 3 weeks and always one game that screws me and it was Tampa this week. UPDATE 9 for 10 so far on the spread and man that Tampa game screwed me!!!!!!!!

[Horseman 2,367]

Up pretty good after UFC and today's wongs and sides.  Dip my toes back into props and see if the luck keeps going. 

Tua o1.5tds

Tua o23.5comp

Hurts o44.5

Smith u5.5

Waddle o4.5

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

10 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Up pretty good after UFC and today's wongs and sides.  Dip my toes back into props and see if the luck keeps going. 

Tua o1.5tds

Tua o23.5att

Hurts o44.5

Smith u5.5

Waddle o4.5

Cool and I should be up more hitting 9 for 10 on the NFL spread, If Eagles cover should win another $100 and some. Will have to take some of your UFC picks next week, prelims since I can watch them on ESPN+.

[Horseman 2,367]

20 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Cool and I should be up more hitting 9 for 10 on the NFL spread, If Eagles cover should win another $100 and some. Will have to take some of your UFC picks next week, prelims since I can watch them on ESPN+.

The whole card will be on ESPN+ next week. It's only the PPV main cards you dont get. 

I just find a stream for the PPV.  ESPN+ used to be a really good deal when it was $60 a year, now theyve jacked their prices I'm going to rethink next year as streams are always available.  

[Fireballer 2,639]

3 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Focking Tampa cost me two 3 dollar 6 team parlays, one for $140 something and one for a $150 something..  I did hit a $2  4 leg for $41, have one later games 6 team one going. I been good on these the last 3 weeks and always one game that screws me and it was Tampa this week. UPDATE 9 for 10 so far on the spread and man that Tampa game screwed me!!!!!!!!

Very nice for NFL ATS, man. 

[Horseman 2,367]

Tua 23.5comp not attempts.  Typo'd that one.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

The whole card will be on ESPN+ next week. It's only the PPV main cards you dont get. 

I just find a stream for the PPV.  ESPN+ used to be a really good deal when it was $60 a year, now theyve jacked their prices I'm going to rethink next year as streams are always available.  

I kept ESPN+ IN cause I bundle it with Hulu and Disney.