Stock Market bubble - will crash

[jbycho 577]

58 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

I already went all cash in my 401k.

[thegeneral 2,877]

VIX at 2008 levels. Those were good times!

Nice work Donald.

[Beaker15 233]

1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

This isn’t a Dems only thing. For focks sake

You all live in some fantasy world.

We can all agree the last couple of days sucked.  I am a Certified Financial Planner and manage over $200 million in assets.  Most of my clients have been through many economic cycles so very few selling the past few weeks.  We did trim some stocks early February after the nice start to the year though.  

The only clients that have liquidated their stock positions, and it isn't many, has been left leaning clients.  I believe the media has been so negative (anti-Trump) and that has helped investor sentiment be the lowest is has been in a long time.

Guys like Physic Observer saying they went all cash are panicking.  I would guess the huge majority of people who went all cash this week are liberals.  If that is the case then yes you kind of can blame the Dems for this sell off.

[thegeneral 2,877]

20 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

We can all agree the last couple of days sucked.  I am a Certified Financial Planner and manage over $200 million in assets.  Most of my clients have been through many economic cycles so very few selling the past few weeks.  We did trim some stocks early February after the nice start to the year though.  

The only clients that have liquidated their stock positions, and it isn't many, has been left leaning clients.  I believe the media has been so negative (anti-Trump) and that has helped investor sentiment be the lowest is has been in a long time.

Guys like Physic Observer saying they went all cash are panicking.  I would guess the huge majority of people who went all cash this week are liberals.  If that is the case then yes you kind of can blame the Dems for this sell off.

With all due respect this is the definition of anecdotal. PO has been saying he’s all cash for some time for whatever that’s worth.

Republicans are shitting their pants about this. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, many more have questioned this to varying degrees publicly which for these ball less people (Rand has a bit of sack at times) is about as wild as they will get.

As with all Trump stuff it’s chaotic, been haphazardly done and his biggest fans twist themselves up to defend it. It’s baffling to me.

[Beaker15 233]

24 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

With all due respect this is the definition of anecdotal. PO has been saying he’s all cash for some time for whatever that’s worth.

Republicans are shitting their pants about this. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, many more have questioned this to varying degrees publicly which for these ball less people (Rand has a bit of sack at times) is about as wild as they will get.

As with all Trump stuff it’s chaotic, been haphazardly done and his biggest fans twist themselves up to defend it. It’s baffling to me.

You are right there are Republicans panicking too.  I was trying to give my personal experience with clients.  It goes both ways, I had conservative clients go all cash scared of Biden and lost a ton of equity on the sidelines

[thegeneral 2,877]

1 minute ago, Beaker15 said:

You are right there are Republicans panicking too.  I was trying to give my personal experience with clients.  It goes both ways, I had conservative clients go all cash scared of Biden and lost a ton of equity on the sidelines

Fair enough. This has been a very bad week. Unforced so it’s maddening. Hopefully this all gets unwound very quickly with some “wins”.

An interesting point I heard this morning is that US companies sell some huge amount more overseas than they export. Like 8 times if I heard correctly (was early and I was preoccupied). Meaning they set up shop and sell in those countries. How much does this crazy shet tarnish our brands and our country in the eyes of those customers. Maybe nothing at all, but maybe this all does start to have impact there.

[Beaker15 233]

8 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Fair enough. This has been a very bad week. Unforced so it’s maddening. Hopefully this all gets unwound very quickly with some “wins”.

An interesting point I heard this morning is that US companies sell some huge amount more overseas than they export. Like 8 times if I heard correctly (was early and I was preoccupied). Meaning they set up shop and sell in those countries. How much does this crazy shet tarnish our brands and our country in the eyes of those customers. Maybe nothing at all, but maybe this all does start to have impact there.

I do expect many countries to come to an agreement short term.  We will see.

[Horseman 2,352]

7 hours ago, Gepetto said:

My bonds keep going up every day!  

Yep.  Weaklings don't understand diversification.  

[Horseman 2,352]

2 hours ago, Beaker15 said:

We can all agree the last couple of days sucked.  I am a Certified Financial Planner and manage over $200 million in assets.  Most of my clients have been through many economic cycles so very few selling the past few weeks.  We did trim some stocks early February after the nice start to the year though.  

The only clients that have liquidated their stock positions, and it isn't many, has been left leaning clients.  I believe the media has been so negative (anti-Trump) and that has helped investor sentiment be the lowest is has been in a long time.

Guys like Physic Observer saying they went all cash are panicking.  I would guess the huge majority of people who went all cash this week are liberals.  If that is the case then yes you kind of can blame the Dems for this sell off.

Time to double down. Not sit it out like a loser.  Life Losing is contagious.   It's a stock firesale, load up.  

[Horseman 2,352]

 

5 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Cramer predicted the same thing on CNBC this morning. Gird your loins in case it happens. But don't, repeat don't be that guy who sells. The powers to be want to buy your shares on the cheap, & if you didn't sell when the markets were hitting new highs, why sell now ?

 

3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You don't sell. This is where smart investors double down. Dems assume this is the way it is and will stay this way. Panicking and selling off is about the word thing you can do right now. 

  Ive got a bunch of cash still, why not getting 4%+, push chips in.  Don't run and hide. Weaklings run and hide. 

 

7 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Time to double down. Not sit it out like a loser.  Life Losing is contagious.   It's a stock firesale, load up.  

 

[Horseman 2,352]

It's too easy to pick out the smart investors.  One word: OPPORTUNITY 

GOOG's PE ratio is 18 for fok sake. 18!!!!!!!!

[Mark Davis 338]

2 hours ago, Beaker15 said:

You are right there are Republicans panicking too.  I was trying to give my personal experience with clients.  It goes both ways, I had conservative clients go all cash scared of Biden and lost a ton of equity on the sidelines

What I try to tell people is the mistake I admit I made in 2008.  I went cash on some 401K funds, and I kept making money as the market dropped, well, until then it didn't.  You always think in bad times it's going lower, and momentum wise says most days you are right.  The problem is the downside of not being able to buy back in is greater than waiting for the adjustment to work it's way through the market.  I used to have a spreadsheet that told me how much that cost me (it's exponential as time goes on because you are rebuying fewer shares if you have to re-enter higher) but that isn't great for the mental health.  I just used it as a lesson to not repeat.  I've had grad school level finance too, but just like gambling on sports, you sometimes think you know better.

[lickin_starfish 1,888]

My concern is that the markets will turn around and won't continue to crash. Let's wreck this schit so we can rise anew.

[The Psychic Observer 495]

3 minutes ago, lickin_starfish said:

My concern is that the markets will turn around and won't continue to crash. Let's wreck this schit so we can rise anew.

What is the benefit of large scale economic catastrophe?

[Gepetto 1,285]

It's all part of Trump's plan. He wants the market to go down so that people will sell stocks and use that money to purchase US Treasuries. DOJ goal to cut a trillion dollars in spending, tariffs to bring in revenue to the US Govt. Then more jobs in the USA for people in the middle class, all will result in prosperity in a year or so from now. 

[Gepetto 1,285]

I see the laughing emoji on my post one above. What I wrote is not from me, it's from a financial advisor who speaks on the radio once a week, who has looked into this. He said this on Wednesday of this week on the radio.

[Cdub100 3,824]

I'm one of the most far-right posters here. I started DCAing OUT last October. Other than crypto and some of my daily TSLA / STRK spot buys, I am 100% out of the market.

This dip has nothing to do with Right vs Left. If Kamala had been president, the market would have dropped. And the conservatives would be blaming her.

When the Fed pivots, the market will drop more.  Expect continued lower highs and lower lows.

ETA - I have a 5% large cap buy money. So Monday I'll be 95% OUT

[Gepetto 1,285]

My Roth 401K went UP  1/2% this week (March 31st to April 4th) and that does not include adding any money to it from my paycheck. I have all of my retirement Roth 401K in two bonds. Just one week, that's a pretty good increase, all while mutual funds and stocks went down over 10%. 

I have nothing in the stock market. I got out a few months ago where I had a few mutual funds before. So I did get the huge gains when the market was skyrocketing up,

I still don't have as much as I'd like in retirement because I was only putting in 10% of my income in it for several years from when I started my career.

[Strike 5,181]

35 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

I still don't have as much as I'd like in retirement because I was only putting in 10% of my income in it for several years from when I started my career.

Don't know how old you are but if you started putting in 10% when you started your career you should be fine long term, moreso if your company has a match.  You probably know this as you sound financially astute.  The biggest mistake people make is waiting too long to START saving and missing out on the benefits of compounding.

[Grace Under Pressure 69]

18 hours ago, The Psychic Observer said:

I already went all cash in my 401k.

This isn’t the move 

[The Psychic Observer 495]

2 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

This isn’t the move 

The market hasn't fully priced in the "reciprocal' tariffs yet as there is still a chance he will negotiate them away this weekend.  I don't believe that happens and there will be another leg down Monday.  If I'm right I save 20%.  If I'm wrong I lose 2%.  I'll trust my gut.

[Grace Under Pressure 69]

4 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

The market hasn't fully priced in the "reciprocal' tariffs yet as there is still a chance he will negotiate them away this weekend.  I don't believe that happens and there will be another leg down Monday.  If I'm right I save 20%.  If I'm wrong I lose 2%.  I'll trust my gut.

The problem is you have to be right twice. You also need to correctly time when to get back in. The market usually has like 10-20 really high upswing days a year. If you’re out during those, it’s too late.

I understand where you’re coming from, but sitting tight is the correct move imo. Everyone has unique circumstances and risk tolerance. I do hope for the best for you here.

[thegeneral 2,877]

23 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

The market hasn't fully priced in the "reciprocal' tariffs yet as there is still a chance he will negotiate them away this weekend.  I don't believe that happens and there will be another leg down Monday.  If I'm right I save 20%.  If I'm wrong I lose 2%.  I'll trust my gut.

I mean everyone had advice so I’ll give mine too (it’s worth how much you are paying ).

A large chunk of your 401k is long term…you have already seen a 10% plus drop. Perhaps take a percentage of your holdings and reenter now at this discount.

[iam90sbaby 2,472]

So when the market goes back up then what lefties? Do you have your marching orders ready to go yet?

[The Real timschochet 6,388]

9 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

So when the market goes back up then what lefties? Do you have your marching orders ready to go yet?

I will cheer. I hope it happens soon .

[iam90sbaby 2,472]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I will cheer. I hope it happens soon .

No you won’t, you’ll pivot and move onto the next thing that makes trump the worst ever

[The Real timschochet 6,388]

1 minute ago, iam90sbaby said:

No you won’t, you’ll pivot and move onto the next thing that makes trump the worst ever

I really don’t need to do that. Nothing I write will change his status. 
 

ETA- but I really did lose a lot of money the last few days (on paper). So I would like to get that back, please. 

[iam90sbaby 2,472]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

I really don’t need to do that. Nothing I write will change his status. 

[thegeneral 2,877]

35 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

So when the market goes back up then what lefties? Do you have your marching orders ready to go yet?

This is going really smooth

Bang up job.

[Maximum Overkill 1,738]

5 hours ago, The Psychic Observer said:

What is the benefit of large scale economic catastrophe?

Because smart investors will make a gazillion dollars at the bounce. You don't see an opportunity here? 

Hang in there Sunshine, we've seen this all before. We'll survive richer than ever. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,738]

Anyone remember the 2008 Housing Market Crash?? I do because I was able to retire from the investments that I made during that time. 

Smart investors knew when to get in, fools panicked. 

[easilyscan 855]

35 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Anyone remember the 2008 Housing Market Crash?? I do because I was able to retire from the investments that I made during that time. 

I remember it all too well. Had started accumulating Bank Of America 2 or 3 years earlier. Had dollar cost averaged my way into a 25K loss around the time the market bottomed.

I didn't even like to log into my account during that time. I said what the F and bought another 700 shares @ around $8

This brought my average cost down to $24 and change. Not sure how long it took to get back to that point, but I sold when it reached that level & never looked back.

 

I also remember how the markets reacted to 9/11 The company I worked at for almost 30 years, was is in deep trouble in 2001. A packaging/container Co. & the CEO oversaw a horrendous acquisition of a large French company in the same sector sometime in 1997. He wanted to be the biggest at any cost. Another problem for the company was the fact that we had to pay millions into an asbestos fund annually. In 1962, they acquired a small company. The only part of the company they wanted, was the division that made caps for beer bottles.

Less than 90 days later, they sold the other part of the company, which made insulation. So 40 years later, even though we held the insulation part of the business less than 90 days, we were the last man standing so to speak, and to this day, still have to pay out millions every year.

On the first day the markets opened after 911, I bought 1600 shares at $2.00 I also had 2500 shares purchased through the ESPP @ an average cost of around $20 it's trading in the mid 80s today & the dividend that was eliminated in the late 90s, was brought back about 10 years ago. I still can't remember why, but I also purchased 400 shares of Eli Lilly in the mid-30s sometime in 2011. That, along with Apple, American water works, & eTFs/funds helped me to retire early.

If this sounds like I'm bragging, trust me, I've made many mistakes along the way, but I learned to let my winners ride & when I buy something that turns out to be a dud, I don't try to dollar cost average my way back to even. That's the biggest mistake I see with investors on yahoo finance, which has been my homepage since 1998.

 

The only thing that concerns me in this thread, is that many (myself included) assume that it's going to be a short term bear, and will bounce back relatively quickly. I wasn't around for a good portion of it, & wasn't investing at the time, but I've researched the bear market that lasted for 15 years (1965-1980)

If you watch CNBC, you probably know who Joe Kernan is. Around 1980, he was just starting out at a small investment firm. Many years ago, he recalled what it was like back then.

"no one was buying stocks, no one was selling stocks, no one even wanted to talk about stocks or the markets"

Compare that to today. The word stagflation has been showing up quite often recently. That's what existed during that bear market.

I'm not suggesting/predicting anything, just saying that it would be a rude awakening for investors like myself & others who've never lived through an extended bear market.

[Horseman 2,352]

21 hours ago, The Psychic Observer said:

The market hasn't fully priced in the "reciprocal' tariffs yet as there is still a chance he will negotiate them away this weekend.  I don't believe that happens and there will be another leg down Monday.  If I'm right I save 20%.  If I'm wrong I lose 2%.  I'll trust my gut.

The fundamentals of investing don't require any guesswork.  Saying things like I'll trust my gut tells everyone you really don't know what you are doing.  

[thegeneral 2,877]

Nice of Donald to create these “opportunities” that have people alluding to the 2008 financial crisis

Good grief.

[Horseman 2,352]

8 hours ago, thegeneral said:

Nice of Donald to create these “opportunities” that have people alluding to the 2008 financial crisis

Good grief.

A - If it's not an opportunity why are you buying and advising others to buy. 

B - Other than a Gepetto conspiracy post you're the only one who has mentioned Trump on this page. You should get that TDS checked out.  

[The Psychic Observer 495]

Crypto has been down all day.  Futures open in 2 hours.  Not looking good.

[easilyscan 855]

I'm pretty much out of ammo. Will be looking to sell short term out of the money calls on 10 positions if/when we get a (dead cat) bounce.

 

 

 

 

[Cdub100 3,824]

20 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Crypto has been down all day.  Futures open in 2 hours.  Not looking good.

Bigly Red.

[easilyscan 855]

https://babylonbee.com/news/financial-advisor-announces-its-time-to-panic-urges-clients-to-make-hasty-emotional-decisions

ATTN Cdub100

R U bigly into technical analysis ?

 

[Cdub100 3,824]

22 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

https://babylonbee.com/news/financial-advisor-announces-its-time-to-panic-urges-clients-to-make-hasty-emotional-decisions

ATTN Cdub100

R U bigly into technical analysis ?

 

The best thing to do is trade on emotion, clearly