Rams at Buccaneers: Divisional Round Discussion

[Mike FF Today 608]

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

The only thing that Fournette's status impacts is how many points the Bucs win by.  I'm thinking the Bucs win 27-24 without Fournette, but 31-20 with Fournette.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,659]

So if Evans gets the Ramsey treatment where does Brady go besides Gronk? 

[Mike FF Today 608]

21 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

So if Evans gets the Ramsey treatment where does Brady go besides Gronk? 

Ramsey doesn't typically shadow. He'll probably be on Evans roughly 50% of the time. Next in line are Breshad Perriman and Tyler Johnson.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

34 minutes ago, Mike FF Today said:

Ramsey doesn't typically shadow. He'll probably be on Evans roughly 50% of the time. Next in line are Breshad Perriman and Tyler Johnson.

...and Cameron Brate, OJ Howard, Scotty Miller, Cyril Grayson (if he's ready), Justin Watson, and Jalen Darden.

I'm willing to bet that Evans lines up in the slot when he's on Ramsey's side with Scotty Miller or Perriman out wide a large part of the time.  When he's out wide, I expect him to be on the other side.  Ramsey's easy to game plan against if you have versatile receivers.

When they put Evans out wide on Ramsey's side, expect Evans to run an inside route with Miller or Perriman under cutting and running deep down the outside to force a slower DB to cover them.  If Ramsey switches off, then a lesser caliber DB will have to stop Evans over the middle.  Brady can get the right guy the ball.

[Mike FF Today 608]

 

[AxeElf 787]

I'm not sure that any team--and certainly not a Super Bowl winning team--has ever had an easier schedule than the Buccaneers in 2021.  The only other half-way decent team in their division swept the Bucs during the regular season, but couldn't make the playoffs themselves.  The Bucs also lost to Washington, and to the Rams (their divisional playoff opponent) in Week 3 by 10 pts.  Outside of their division, the Bucs played the AFC East and the NFC East, with two other non-playoff teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) thrown in for good measure, which means the only playoff teams the Bucs beat during the regular season were the Eagles (by 6), the Cowboys (by 2), the Patriots (by 2) and the Bills (in OT).  They got the Eagles again in the first round, but it will be interesting to see what they can do against some real teams now.

The Titans, Packers and Bills also kind of benefitted from playing in weak divisions, while the Bengals, 49ers, Rams and Chiefs were challenged by stronger divisions.  We'll see if that makes them better prepared for the playoffs or not.

[nobody 2,044]

I don't think any team has a great record against playoff teams except maybe Tennessee.  Rams were 2-5 against playoff teams in the regular season.

[weepaws 2,461]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I'm not sure that any team--and certainly not a Super Bowl winning team--has ever had an easier schedule than the Buccaneers in 2021.  The only other half-way decent team in their division swept the Bucs during the regular season, but couldn't make the playoffs themselves.  The Bucs also lost to Washington, and to the Rams (their divisional playoff opponent) in Week 3 by 10 pts.  Outside of their division, the Bucs played the AFC East and the NFC East, with two other non-playoff teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) thrown in for good measure, which means the only playoff teams the Bucs beat during the regular season were the Eagles (by 6), the Cowboys (by 2), the Patriots (by 2) and the Bills (in OT).  They got the Eagles again in the first round, but it will be interesting to see what they can do against some real teams now.

The Titans, Packers and Bills also kind of benefitted from playing in weak divisions, while the Bengals, 49ers, Rams and Chiefs were challenged by stronger divisions.  We'll see if that makes them better prepared for the playoffs or not.

Darn it anyway, they still might make it t the Super Bowl and win it.   

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

2 hours ago, nobody said:

I don't think any team has a great record against playoff teams except maybe Tennessee.  Rams were 2-5 against playoff teams in the regular season.

Tampa did have an easy schedule... I even noted it before the season started as justification as to why I was saying Tampa players should have a good fantasy season.  To note, I was right on that.  I did project Brady at 5k and 50... he did finish with over 5200 yards, but only 43 TD... though, he lead the league in both categories and finished top 3 in fantasy.  I also said that two of their three WR's could be top 10 if one of them misses significant time.  At the time of Godwin's injury, he was WR6 and Evans was WR9.  That said, the Bucs finished 30th in strength of schedule this year, but Buffalo... whom a lot of people think is the team to beat in the AFC, finished 31st.  Also, Cincinnati isn't too far away at 29 and neither is Tennessee at 26.  

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Buffalo... whom a lot of people think is the team to beat in the AFC, finished 31st.  Also, Cincinnati isn't too far away at 29 and neither is Tennessee at 26.  

That's interesting.  I would not have thought that the Bills and Cincinnati would be that low... but hey, the Chiefs road to the SuperBowl now runs through #31 and then either #26 or #29, so whatever scrub team survives in the NFC can probably start preparing for the Chiefs now...

[Ray_T 591]

10 hours ago, Mike FF Today said:

Ramsey doesn't typically shadow. He'll probably be on Evans roughly 50% of the time. Next in line are Breshad Perriman and Tyler Johnson.

that may be true, but there may make an exception here.   

Lots of times a team that fully expects to make the playoffs wont tip their hand on certain things until playoff time arrives. 

As Evans and Gronk may be the biggest threats, it may make sense to have Ramsey on Evans.     I'd assume hes able to move around the defense to make this happen.

either way  it will be interesting to see what they do on this.

[Ray_T 591]

6 hours ago, nobody said:

I don't think any team has a great record against playoff teams except maybe Tennessee.  Rams were 2-5 against playoff teams in the regular season.

yeah, the rams also play in the best division in pro football.   3 of the 4 teams made the playoffs.  fourth (seahawks) wasnt THAT bad.

Tampa has only one more win and far easier competition.

I also think the rams matchup well against Brady.     Historically if you can get pressure on Brady without blitzing too much, you can have some success against him.   Rams have that ability.   their D is on par with the Saints D.   I think it is not a given that the Bucs go to the superbowl, and this may actually be their toughest test.  not sure what the betting line is on this but if its more than a TD and the bucs are the favourite, i'd probably take the points and bet on the rams

Edited January 21, 2022 by Ray_T
clarification of last statement

[AxeElf 787]

30 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I also think the rams matchup well against Brady.     Historically if you can get pressure on Brady without blitzing too much, you can have some success against him.   Rams have that ability.   their D is on par with the Saints D.   I think it is not a given that the Bucs go to the superbowl, and this may actually be their toughest test.  not sure what the betting line is on this but if its more than a TD and the bucs are the favourite, i'd probably take the points and bet on the rams

I would just like to take this opportunity to recognize and congratulate Ray for writing a paragraph spanning more than one line of text!  His posts usually look like a bar code.

[njacinto 4]

11 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

...and Cameron Brate, OJ Howard, Scotty Miller, Cyril Grayson (if he's ready), Justin Watson, and Jalen Darden.

I'm willing to bet that Evans lines up in the slot when he's on Ramsey's side with Scotty Miller or Perriman out wide a large part of the time.  When he's out wide, I expect him to be on the other side.  Ramsey's easy to game plan against if you have versatile receivers.

When they put Evans out wide on Ramsey's side, expect Evans to run an inside route with Miller or Perriman under cutting and running deep down the outside to force a slower DB to cover them.  If Ramsey switches off, then a lesser caliber DB will have to stop Evans over the middle.  Brady can get the right guy the ball.

Uh... Scotty Miller, Cyril Grayson, Justin Watson, Jalen Darden, Perriman... Iʻm having a hard time visualizing how the Bucs are going to outscore the Rams with this group of receivers without Fournette or Jones... Not your typical group of household names... Iʻve been trying, their stats donʻt impress me either.  My eyes tell me that Aaron Donald and his friends are way more formidable than the Eagles defense, so Iʻm taking the -3 points.

[weepaws 2,461]

Rams money line.  

[nobody 2,044]

Rams' opponents win loss record (counting division opponents twice) 139-150 (.480)

Tampa Bay opponents win loss record (counting division opponents twice) 135-154 (.467)

These strengths of schedules aren't that different.

 

Here's the record of the teams they beat

Rams - 83-121 (.406)

TB - 98-123 (.443)

[nobody 2,044]

2 hours ago, njacinto said:

Uh... Scotty Miller, Cyril Grayson, Justin Watson, Jalen Darden, Perriman... Iʻm having a hard time visualizing how the Bucs are going to outscore the Rams with this group of receivers without Fournette or Jones... Not your typical group of household names... Iʻve been trying, their stats donʻt impress me either.  My eyes tell me that Aaron Donald and his friends are way more formidable than the Eagles defense, so Iʻm taking the -3 points.

Don't forget Tyler Johnson.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

7 hours ago, nobody said:

Don't forget Tyler Johnson.

Mike mentioned him earlier, that's why I didn't include him and why @njacinto didn't eirther.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

9 hours ago, njacinto said:

Uh... Scotty Miller, Cyril Grayson, Justin Watson, Jalen Darden, Perriman... Iʻm having a hard time visualizing how the Bucs are going to outscore the Rams with this group of receivers without Fournette or Jones... Not your typical group of household names... Iʻve been trying, their stats donʻt impress me either.  My eyes tell me that Aaron Donald and his friends are way more formidable than the Eagles defense, so Iʻm taking the -3 points.

Well, when a team has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate... I don't think backup WR's would be well heard of around the league.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

11 hours ago, Ray_T said:

yeah, the rams also play in the best division in pro football.   3 of the 4 teams made the playoffs.  fourth (seahawks) wasnt THAT bad.

Tampa has only one more win and far easier competition.

I also think the rams matchup well against Brady.     Historically if you can get pressure on Brady without blitzing too much, you can have some success against him.   Rams have that ability.   their D is on par with the Saints D.   I think it is not a given that the Bucs go to the superbowl, and this may actually be their toughest test.  not sure what the betting line is on this but if its more than a TD and the bucs are the favourite, i'd probably take the points and bet on the rams

I think you may want to look a little more critically at the Rams' schedule.  They started off with the Bears (stunk), then the Colts who started out 1-5 I believe (and they barely beat them), then the beat Tampa.  I think that was their Super Bowl really.   They followed that up with a loss to the Cardinals... then wins against Seattle (not good), Giants (stunk), Lions (stunk), and the Texans (stunk).  They then lost 3 games in a row vs Tennessee, San Fran, and Green Bay before beating the Jags (stunk), Arizona, Seattle, Minnesota, and Baltimore (without Jackson)... and almost lost, and in a game where would lock up a #2 in a HOME game, lost in overtime to the 49ers.

The Rams only have 2 wins vs playoffs teams... Tampa and 1 vs Arizona.  They lost to San Fran twice, Arizona, Green Bay, and Tennessee.  Tampa lost to the Rams.  They beat New England, Buffalo, Philly, and Dallas.  The only difference in their opponents win/loss record boils down to the fact that Seattle had 7 wins and Carolina had 5.

Interestingly enough, had Garoppolo not missed the game against Arizona, the 49ers would've been the 5-seed and played the Rams last week and AZ would've been the 6-seed and played Dallas.

[nobody 2,044]

I always enjoy when I make a post and another poster repackages what I say like it was their idea.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Sounds like Perriman is going to be Inactive...

 

[weepaws 2,461]

Rams oline took a big hit today.  

[Ray_T 591]

14 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think you may want to look a little more critically at the Rams' schedule.  They started off with the Bears (stunk), then the Colts who started out 1-5 I believe (and they barely beat them), then the beat Tampa.  I think that was their Super Bowl really.   They followed that up with a loss to the Cardinals... then wins against Seattle (not good), Giants (stunk), Lions (stunk), and the Texans (stunk).  They then lost 3 games in a row vs Tennessee, San Fran, and Green Bay before beating the Jags (stunk), Arizona, Seattle, Minnesota, and Baltimore (without Jackson)... and almost lost, and in a game where would lock up a #2 in a HOME game, lost in overtime to the 49ers.

The Rams only have 2 wins vs playoffs teams... Tampa and 1 vs Arizona.  They lost to San Fran twice, Arizona, Green Bay, and Tennessee.  Tampa lost to the Rams.  They beat New England, Buffalo, Philly, and Dallas.  The only difference in their opponents win/loss record boils down to the fact that Seattle had 7 wins and Carolina had 5.

Interestingly enough, had Garoppolo not missed the game against Arizona, the 49ers would've been the 5-seed and played the Rams last week and AZ would've been the 6-seed and played Dallas.

ok.

I never went into that kind of analysis really.

I looked at the NFC west and saw when you filtered out the divisional games,  that division had the best record in non divisional games among all NFC divisions.   To that end, I determined that a divisional win there is worth more than one in any other division if trying to determine strength of teams.

NFC west went 14-10 against teams out of division but still within the conference and went 14-6 in non conference games.

NFC south teams interestingly enough went a combined 10-14 vs conference opponents outside of the division but 12-8 in non conference games.   removing tampas 5 non conference games (all wins)  the division would have been 7-8 vs non conference. 

to me the stats show a few things:

1) Tampa really is a whole lot better than the other teams in their division.  (and  considering some of their late season losses to divisional oppoents were with injury issues. I guess they get a pass to some degree on the weaker record within the division)

2) seattle went 1-5 vs teams outside of division but also had significant injury for parts of the season.   I think this is a better team than the record showed.

3) I think NFC west is the best division in the conference.  possibly in all of pro football.

4) interestingly enough, The NFC east (who I considered pretty weak) actually did well in conference games outside of the division going a combined 14-10 like the NFC west, but unlike the NFC west they did very poorly in out of conference games going 6-14 (worst in the conference)  its weird how this one went,.  tied for best in conference games, but worst in non conference games. 

I thought these guys were the worst division in football, but clearly this shows they are better than I thought and may actually have some teams on the rise.  I'd expect next year, the teams here may actually show better next year(provided they have a solid off season)

either way, thats where my rationale came from.

I am not saying this means anyone will win or lose, but I am inclined to think the Rams and Tampa are closer to a tossup in terms of comparability.  Tampa has one more win, but the rams (I believe) play in a tougher division and the two roughly offset.

I'd rate this game as a pick 'em.  I wouldnt give points away on either side, but I'd take them if they were offered to me.

 

 

 

[AxeElf 787]

On 1/20/2022 at 11:56 AM, AxeElf said:

I'm not sure that any team--and certainly not a Super Bowl winning team--has ever had an easier schedule than the Buccaneers in 2021.  The only other half-way decent team in their division swept the Bucs during the regular season, but couldn't make the playoffs themselves.  The Bucs also lost to Washington, and to the Rams (their divisional playoff opponent) in Week 3 by 10 pts.  Outside of their division, the Bucs played the AFC East and the NFC East, with two other non-playoff teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) thrown in for good measure, which means the only playoff teams the Bucs beat during the regular season were the Eagles (by 6), the Cowboys (by 2), the Patriots (by 2) and the Bills (in OT).  They got the Eagles again in the first round, but it will be interesting to see what they can do against some real teams now.

The Titans, Packers and Bills also kind of benefitted from playing in weak divisions, while the Bengals, 49ers, Rams and Chiefs were challenged by stronger divisions.  We'll see if that makes them better prepared for the playoffs or not.

Through two games, the "Just Because You Won a Crappy Division Doesn't Mean You're Going to Beat a Team from a Better Division in the Playoffs" theory is holding serve.

Can the Rams and Chiefs make it a sweep?

[Mike FF Today 608]

Inactives

Rams: QB Bryce Perkins, S Taylor Rapp, RB Buddy Howell, OLB Chris Garrett, OLB Terrell Lewis, OL Tremayne Anchrum Jr., OL Andrew Whitworth

Buccaneers: QB Kyle Trask, QB Ryan Griffin, WR Cyril Grayson, WR Breshad Perriman, RB Ronald Jones, CB Pierre Desir, OT Tristan Wirfs

[Fumbleweed 426]

Laughing at Suh complaining about being intentionally kicked. Quite the turd. 

[jrokh 569]

Tampa, you might want to cover that #10 dude. I hear he is pretty good…

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Nobody makes Tom bleed his own blood!

[Fumbleweed 426]

Rams just look like the much better team in this game. Better in all facets in fact. 

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Akers might cost them a chance at a kill shot though.

[cmh6476 757]

Last year had to play the bucs in Tampa, this year looks like it'll be the rams at sofi  

[Ray_T 591]

23 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Rams just look like the much better team in this game. Better in all facets in fact. 

well, with people missing in the offense, I figured TB would be less productive.

What I am surprised about is just how easily the rams moved the ball against the TB defense.   I thought that the defense would be better.  not taking anything away from Stafford, hes playing really well, but I did expect more from the Tampa D.

[Fumbleweed 426]

9 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, with people missing in the offense, I figured TB would be less productive.

What I am surprised about is just how easily the rams moved the ball against the TB defense.   I thought that the defense would be better.  not taking anything away from Stafford, hes playing really well, but I did expect more from the Tampa D.

Tampa’s defense is terrific against the run, but is otherwise a bit overrated. 

[Fumbleweed 426]

It almost feels like this game is being played with no fans. Stadium is completely quiet.

[Utilit99 4,099]

17 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

Last year had to play the bucs in Tampa, this year looks like it'll be the rams at sofi  

Didn't realize you represented the Bills. Good deal.  

The chiefs can get some rest after tonight. 

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Here we go again... 

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Jesus, Rams trying to choke harder than the Falcons. 

[nobody 2,044]

I guess the Rams just don't want to win.  Sphincters so tight they could turn coal into diamonds.