Chiefs Trade Tyreek Hill to Miami

[cmh6476 1,019]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Having the ability to run routes, then catch ball is way more important than speed.  If this guy couldn't put up big numbers in GB, he's certainly not going to in KC.  Northing wrong with the signing, but as I said above, I don't think he improves the team... he's just another random WR that they already have 2 or 3 of (Pringle, Hardman, Robinson).

Pringle is with the bears and Robinson out meeting with teams currently. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,499]

Just now, cmh6476 said:

Pringle is with the bears and Robinson out meeting with teams currently. 

Ok, then they're replacing JAG's.  Nothing wrong with that.  I think they draft 2 WR's with their first 5 picks (1 of which in the 1st round).

[weepaws 3,158]

6 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Having the ability to run routes, then catch ball is way more important than speed.  If this guy couldn't put up big numbers in GB, he's certainly not going to in KC.  Northing wrong with the signing, but as I said above, I don't think he improves the team... he's just another random WR that they already have 2 or 3 of (Pringle, Hardman, Robinson).

Pringle and Robinson no longer on board.  

[weepaws 3,158]

1 hour ago, cmh6476 said:

The chargers are picked to win the division every year and never do.   Raiders gonna raider.  And fock the donks.

 

24 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

There's always someone out there riding their coattails heading into the season.  They're usually stacked and then deal with injuries through camp for some reason.

These two don’t match.  

Try again. 

[weepaws 3,158]

21 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

 

59 games played mostly with A Rodgers, he averaged 2 rec per game, The other afc west teams are laughing  

[weepaws 3,158]

Toughest part about this trade pertaining to ff, is how to rank the Dolphins players.  

Not easy this moment.  

[cmh6476 1,019]

First one I Google d

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-odds-afc-west-predictions-best-bets-top-model-fading-chargers/

[Phil Simms 11 133]

4 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

First one I Google d

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-odds-afc-west-predictions-best-bets-top-model-fading-chargers/

That article said Chiefs are favored and Chargers the worst, I think?

[weepaws 3,158]

It doesn’t say anything about the Chargers winning their division, it’s showes them finishing last lead by Qb T Taylor.  

Oh boy.  

[Ray_T 743]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

59 games played mostly with A Rodgers, he averaged 2 rec per game, The other afc west teams are laughing  

well, he is basically a Tyreek Hill who cannot catch the ball.

catches less than 50% of his passes over the course of his career.

Maybe Andy Reid thinks he can teach him how to catch.

I say that in jest.   Reid has a history of doing well with some of his rehab projects.   Hes an astute football guy.   but I'll be honest, this move has me a bit confused.

[IGotWorms 4,057]

MVS is nothing special at all. Shouldn’t have even bothered with that signing

[AxeElf 787]

MVS and Hardman are just the deep decoys.  They don't have to be able to catch.  The Chiefs will be 6 yarding everyone to death with Kelce and Juju and the RBs underneath.

[Phil Simms 11 133]

MVS? Never saw him getting that deal. Sure he is fast, plenty of fast guys didn’t do anything in the league. 
 

Bad signing 

[cmh6476 1,019]

13 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, he is basically a Tyreek Hill who cannot catch the ball.

catches less than 50% of his passes over the course of his career.

Maybe Andy Reid thinks he can teach him how to catch.

I say that in jest.   Reid has a history of doing well with some of his rehab projects.   Hes an astute football guy.   but I'll be honest, this move has me a bit confused.

0 drops last year. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,499]

2 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

0 drops last year. 

Caught 47.3% of the passes thrown his way last year.  That's his point about him not being able to catch.  I think he's really bad at adjusting to the ball.  It's not counted as a "drop", unless he makes contact with it or if it went between his hands.  If he never makes a play on it because he turned the wrong way, couldn't get position, or ran the wrong route... those aren't drops.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Caught 47.3% of the passes thrown his way last year.

Considering that the overall completion rate for passes 18 yards deep in the NFL last year was about 46%, MVS would be ahead of the curve, with his average depth of target being 18.2.

(Tyreek Hill's average depth of target last year was 10.4.)

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

On 3/23/2022 at 5:35 PM, cmh6476 said:

I think we may also be underscoring the boost this could give to Hardman.  He should be coming into his own in his third season.   Kelce, juju, Hardman, add a value FA and draft a young receiver and this offense may not miss a beat. 

 

Small boost to Mecole....last season was his 3rd (supposed to be) breakout season....he'll be on the 4th come week 1.  

MVS would qualify as a "value FA" and definitely need to take a young one..... Williams, Watson or Pickens 

[TBayXXXVII 2,499]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Considering that the overall completion rate for passes 18 yards deep in the NFL last year was about 46%, MVS would be ahead of the curve, with his average depth of target being 18.2.

(Tyreek Hill's average depth of target last year was 10.4.)

That's why I didn't just refer to his catch % and why I added more.

His aDOT started out at 12.5 his rookie season , then went up to 15 his second season.  The last 2 years he was around 17.5.  The main reason for the increase is because he was a below average route runner and he couldn't get separation on the shorter routes.  So, the Packers felt that they needed to deepen his routes for him to use his speed to create the separation.  He's a 1-trick pony.  There's nothing wrong with that.  There's nothing wrong with having a WR who can really stretch the field... but, that kind of player is not someone you build your offense around, nor have a regular gameday role.  He's situational.  I don't think he does any better in KC than he did in GB.  From an NFL perspective, he's a WR3... 4 if you have 3 better options.  He's replacing Pringle.  It's a good move from that perspective.  They'll still have to replace Hill with a legitimate option.

[AxeElf 787]

26 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

They'll still have to replace Hill with a legitimate option.

They already have; but the options are more suited to their new short-yardage, controlled-possession offense in which Hill had become obsolete.

No point in paying your deep decoy a hundred billion dollars when you can pay MVS to be a deep decoy for WalMart prices.

[Ray_T 743]

8 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Caught 47.3% of the passes thrown his way last year.  That's his point about him not being able to catch.  I think he's really bad at adjusting to the ball.  It's not counted as a "drop", unless he makes contact with it or if it went between his hands.  If he never makes a play on it because he turned the wrong way, couldn't get position, or ran the wrong route... those aren't drops.

Bingo.

poor route runner.

I'm gonna quote Tony Romo.  a number of years ago a WR on his roster sort of put him on the spot in front of a reporter and asked why he doesnt throw to him more often.

the answer:

I have a bunch of huge people trying to kill me back there.  If I look at where you are supposed to be and you are not there, I go to the next read.  I dont have time to figure out where you went and try to find you.

I think this generally explains why some apparently talented Receivers dont have the # of targets they should have.

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's why I didn't just refer to his catch % and why I added more.

His aDOT started out at 12.5 his rookie season , then went up to 15 his second season.  The last 2 years he was around 17.5.  The main reason for the increase is because he was a below average route runner and he couldn't get separation on the shorter routes.  So, the Packers felt that they needed to deepen his routes for him to use his speed to create the separation.  He's a 1-trick pony.  There's nothing wrong with that.  There's nothing wrong with having a WR who can really stretch the field... but, that kind of player is not someone you build your offense around, nor have a regular gameday role.  He's situational.  I don't think he does any better in KC than he did in GB.  From an NFL perspective, he's a WR3... 4 if you have 3 better options.  He's replacing Pringle.  It's a good move from that perspective.  They'll still have to replace Hill with a legitimate option.

as noted, the bolded part of your statement says it all.

That said, Reid is a good coach.  maybe he thinks he can work with the guy.   but at the end of the day if you are not open you are not getting the ball thrown your way.

Rodgers is among the best QB's in the NFL.  if you cant make it work with him, you need to step up your game.

now hes with Mahomes.   similar style player, but i think he does like to go deep a bit more than Rodgers does (though I havnt run the numbers to confirm it.... it feels like he likes going deep more)   so to that end, maybe he will do a bit better here.

but if as noted hes a situational guy, KC has other players with the same skillset.   so I am still puzzled by the signing.

[weepaws 3,158]

Don’t know if Reid can coach him up, he didn’t make any difference with Watkins, and still waiting on Hardman.  

[Ray_T 743]

12 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Don’t know if Reid can coach him up, he didn’t make any difference with Watkins, and still waiting on Hardman.  

it is a deep draft at WR.

maybe hes a placeholder and they are drafting one or two WR's in this years draft.   It may take a year or two for those WR's to be ready to put up big numbers but waiting for them to arrive is likely better than overpaying for a WR who will hamstring your cap numbers for 6 or 7 years.

[weepaws 3,158]

I agree, they will draft one or two imo.  Hamstring your cap numbers if you think you can win now.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,499]

On 3/25/2022 at 5:48 PM, AxeElf said:

They already have; but the options are more suited to their new short-yardage, controlled-possession offense in which Hill had become obsolete.

No point in paying your deep decoy a hundred billion dollars when you can pay MVS to be a deep decoy for WalMart prices.

LOL, "decoy".

[Ray_T 743]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

LOL, "decoy".

not totally.   MVS and Hardman should put up over 1000 yards combined.   This should be enough to keep defenses from crowding the line or stacking the box.

but yeah, they may not be the primary targets.

the other possibility (and one I hadnt considered until about 5 minutes ago....) maybe Reid thinks Hardman is ready to be a #1.   is it possible that he just didnt get the targets because Kelce and Hill hogged all the targets?

I acknowledge, this is out of left field and could be a lot of nonsense.  but I thought I'd post the question anyways to see what some of you think about this.   Is it possible?

[weepaws 3,158]

I don’t think Hardman is that good, and that’s why the lack of targets.  

[Ray_T 743]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I don’t think Hardman is that good, and that’s why the lack of targets.  

even if he was good, you are not playing him ahead of Tyreek.   and you are not taking touches from Kelce for him either.

Thats my point.  how much if this is due to the talent on the team?  and how much due to his individual performance?

just food for thought.  

[weepaws 3,158]

1/2 ppr in three seasons Hardman as avg 6.5 points per game, I think that’s what he is. 

He’s clearly not wr1 good in ff or on KC.  

 

[weepaws 3,158]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

even if he was good, you are not playing him ahead of Tyreek.   and you are not taking touches from Kelce for him either.

Thats my point.  how much if this is due to the talent on the team?  and how much due to his individual performance?

just food for thought.  

If he was better then he would have more targets, I think that’s pretty easy to say.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,499]

16 hours ago, Ray_T said:

not totally.   MVS and Hardman should put up over 1000 yards combined.   This should be enough to keep defenses from crowding the line or stacking the box.

but yeah, they may not be the primary targets.

the other possibility (and one I hadnt considered until about 5 minutes ago....) maybe Reid thinks Hardman is ready to be a #1.   is it possible that he just didnt get the targets because Kelce and Hill hogged all the targets?

I acknowledge, this is out of left field and could be a lot of nonsense.  but I thought I'd post the question anyways to see what some of you think about this.   Is it possible?

I'm mocking his reference to calling Hill a decoy.  Decoy's don't get 100+ targets a year... or 8 per game.

[jrokh 608]

18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm mocking his reference to calling Hill a decoy.  Decoy's don't get 100+ targets a year... or 8 per game.

The rationalization by chiefs’ fans that losing the most explosive WR in the NFL won’t really hurt them, has been highly amusing…

[TBayXXXVII 2,499]

6 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The rationalization by chiefs’ fans that losing the most explosive WR in the NFL won’t really hurt them, has been highly amusing…

They might be right, IF the Chiefs are able to grab a WR in the draft who can be just like Jefferson and Chase, but they don't seem to go there.  Yeah, for some reason they think that Juju, MVS, and Co, will be enough.  

[cmh6476 1,019]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

The rationalization by chiefs’ fans that losing the most explosive WR in the NFL won’t really hurt them, has been highly amusing…

I'm not saying it won't hurt.   But in terms of our offense scoring more than the defense allows opponents to score I think we are still in great shape. 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

The rationalization by chiefs’ fans that losing the most explosive WR in the NFL won’t really hurt them, has been highly amusing…

Well in their defense, when has a team ever won a title because they had a great receiver? Even a team like the Rams, great receivers but it took the QB to bring it together

[jrokh 608]

27 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Well in their defense, when has a team ever won a title because they had a great receiver? Even a team like the Rams, great receivers but it took the QB to bring it together

Last 3 years: The Rams had Cooper Kupp and OBJ, Bucs had Evans/Godwin/AB, and the Chiefs had Tyreek Hill. Obviously the QB is the most important position, kind of self-evident. Most teams need an elite or at least very good passing game to compete. Elite WR's make that possible. If you lose an elite WR and replace him with a bunch of JAG's, you're passing game got worse. Case closed...

[Ray_T 743]

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

The rationalization by chiefs’ fans that losing the most explosive WR in the NFL won’t really hurt them, has been highly amusing…

no thats silly.  you dont lose a guy like that and think your offense wont take a hit.  it will

the question is how big a hit does it take.

[Ray_T 743]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

They might be right, IF the Chiefs are able to grab a WR in the draft who can be just like Jefferson and Chase, but they don't seem to go there.  Yeah, for some reason they think that Juju, MVS, and Co, will be enough.  

even if the plan is to draft a WR, you still need to bring someone in.   not all WR's are ready to step into a starting role day one of their rookie season.

to that end, these moves are necessary even if the plan was to draft someone all along.

[Ray_T 743]

40 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Well in their defense, when has a team ever won a title because they had a great receiver? Even a team like the Rams, great receivers but it took the QB to bring it together

true.  doesnt matter how good the WR is.  if the QB cant hit him when hes open, the talent becomes wasted talent.

but there are cases where the #1 WR makes a QB better and cases where the QB makes the WR better.

with Mahomes, its tough to say which is which because kelce and Tyreek have always been there.

sure you had a look when hill got hurt and missed a game or two but thats too small a sample size to tell us the answer.

I think the offense is still very good, but not at the level it was before.   Thats my prediction.  Mahomes is still a QB1 but not an elite one. (elite being top 3 or top 4 QB for fantasy)

team will still be good, and should make the playoffs.  but likely no longer the team to beat in their conference.  

of course that could change if they hit on a top WR at the draft table.  but you cant count on THAT.

[weepaws 3,158]

55 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Well in their defense, when has a team ever won a title because they had a great receiver? Even a team like the Rams, great receivers but it took the QB to bring it together

I don’t think the Rams wr were so great before last season. 

It took the Qb to rise their game up, Kupps best 1/2 point ppr ff season was 14 points per game before last season.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,499]

21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

even if the plan is to draft a WR, you still need to bring someone in.   not all WR's are ready to step into a starting role day one of their rookie season.

to that end, these moves are necessary even if the plan was to draft someone all along.

Agreed.  These GM's and coaches do have big ego's though.  I'm willing to bet that all of them think that, to some extent, their first pick is going to be a home run from day 1.