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jrokh

Who will be the biggest bust in 2022?

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On 9/2/2022 at 1:04 PM, justforbeer said:

Bust candidates.....hmmm. Davante Adams will be pedestrian.

Last big name WR that went to the Raiders....how did he do?  Maybe we should ask Randy Moss?

2003 1,600 yards 17 tds. 

skip 04 season (not playing, injured etc)

2005 with the Raiders, 1000yds and 8 tds.  

2007 with Pats, 1,500yds and 23 TDS. 

Next

I do not like Jalen Hurtz.  He is one that I think will be a mess by the end of the year. (Trey Lance gets runner up)

RB

Akers & Dobbins will both be disappointing but the #1 guy I think this year is D. Henry.

Of the top 15, this is a bit of a wild one. I like him, but no man can handle 30 carries a game forever. Last year was the signal that may be the reality. 

I am going to scare you with these numbers, but they are the facts.

D. Henry last 3 games (includes cincy playoff game)

20 att - 62 yds - 1td - no catches (Cincy)

28 att - 68 yds - 0td - no catches and a fumble. (Indy) Before injury.

29 att - 86 yds - 0td - 2 catches 16 yds. (KC)

So you heard it from me first. D. Henry in his last 3 games was HORRIBLE! 77 att for 216 yds (that is 2.8yds a carry!) 1 TD.

Not bad so far.  
Right on all 3 rbs so far. 
Adams game 2 no good.

T Lance already out for season because of a run. 
Hurts is going to get hurt just like that. 

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Congrats 

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After 2 weeks, I'd say our current leaders of Bust of the Year are Derrick Henry, Ceedee Lamb, and Dalvin Cook - in that order.

Henry has some easy matchups next few games and with volume should be able to climb out of the funk. Same for Cook.

Ceedee... no Dak for another month or so. Might be rough.

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Of those three, with Gallup who will be the Cowboys best wr this season, Lamb will stay on that list.  

The other two have room for improvement. Lamb was awful the seasons half of last season even with the Dak. 

Lambs last seven games last season in half ppr he avg 8 points per game.  

 

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7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Lamb was awful the seasons half of last season even with the Dak. 

Lambs last seven games last season in half ppr he avg 8 points per game. 

A fantasy podcast a month or so ago made an interesting point... the most targets any WR has ever had in Dak's entire career was 132 with Dez Bryant in 2017.  Cooper consistently got 120+-.

All the people who projected "even if Lamb only gets 150 targets, we can't lose!"  Well, that was a stretch to begin with - not how Dak plays QB. And then there's the possibility that Lamb just isn't a superstar, as some scouts were saying before the 2020 draft. "But Lamb blew up against bad defenses in the Big 12." Ok.

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2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

A fantasy podcast a month or so ago made an interesting point... the most targets any WR has ever had in Dak's entire career was 132 with Dez Bryant in 2017.  Cooper consistently got 120+-.

All the people who projected "even if Lamb only gets 150 targets, we can't lose!"  Well, that was a stretch to begin with - not how Dak plays QB. And then there's the possibility that Lamb just isn't a superstar, as some scouts were saying before the 2020 draft. "But Lamb blew up against bad defenses in the Big 12." Ok.

Problem with Dak is he only throws to open receivers.  Ceedee doesn't get open.

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N Harris is now on pace to produce in half ppr about 80 points less then last season, he’s now a mid rb2,  is adp was first round in the top six.  

It’s not going to get any better.  

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13 hours ago, nobody said:

Problem with Dak is he only throws to open receivers.  Ceedee doesn't get open.

This is a very good point.  Though, Lamb gets "NFL open"... that's not good enough for Dak.  He wants "Open".

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Najee is getting looks and touches. He badly needs the playcalling to open up some more or for them to just switch to Pickett and get it over with. 

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45 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

This is a very good point.  Though, Lamb gets "NFL open"... that's not good enough for Dak.  He wants "Open".

We call that "Dak Open"!

Is it because he can't throw a ball into tight windows like Rodgers and Mahomes?  The receiver literally has to have 5 yards between him and the defender just in case?

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Just now, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

We call that "Dak Open"!

Is it because he can't throw a ball into a tight windows like Rodgers and Mahomes?

:cheers:

Ah, I never heard that one.  Nice!

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Right now N Harris is avg 6 less rush att/ targets per game.  

Last season his half ppr per game avg was 15, this season it’s 11.  

 

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So interesting. What is Henry and D. Cook’s averages right now compared to last year? Not sure why you are willing to die on this hill, but it will be amusing to watch at least…

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20 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Right now N Harris is avg 6 less rush att/ targets per game.  

Last season his half ppr per game avg was 15, this season it’s 11.  

 

Literally none of that is correct, other than the general concept that his numbers are lower. 

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

So interesting. What is Henry and D. Cook’s averages right now compared to last year? Not sure why you are willing to die on this hill, but it will be amusing to watch at least…

Last year Henry had 61 touches through 2 games. This year it is 35 through 2...So average was 30 last year, this year it is 18. And Henry is the guy weepaws and AxeElf were so determined to mock people for passing over early thinking of course he would duplicate his 2021 numbers.

Cook last year had 50 through 2 games. This year it is 37 through 2. So 25 per game down to 19.

Ekeler last year had 33 touches through 2 games. This year it is 32.

Jonathan Taylor last year had 39. This year 45

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15 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Last year Henry had 61 touches through 2 games. This year it is 35 through 2...So average was 30 last year, this year it is 18. And Henry is the guy weepaws and AxeElf were so determined to mock people for passing over early thinking of course he would duplicate his 2021 numbers.

Cook last year had 50 through 2 games. This year it is 37 through 2. So 25 per game down to 19.

Ekeler last year had 33 touches through 2 games. This year it is 32.

Jonathan Taylor last year had 39. This year 45

Nice work, i was too lazy to look it up myself. Regardless, this cherry picking of small sample sizes isn't really that useful. especially from one year to the next. As for Najee, it is unlikely he will be as good in fantasy as last year, due mostly to Pitt having a bland O-coordinator, and mitchy mostly sucks, maybe if Pickett gets in there it will change the equation. Still, he is a true bell-cow, and those will always be valuable in fantasy.

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No hill to die on, N Harris is a bust to this point without question, and he’s going to be. 

No way anyone that drafted him in the first round , top six is happy with what they are getting from him.  

Its a righteous hill. 

Others have picked Henry and D Cook, and I would agree they have been also. 

But my pick Is N Harris and he is a bust , and I think it going to get worst.  

Thanks. 

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6 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Nice work, i was too lazy to look it up myself. Regardless, this cherry picking of small sample sizes isn't really that useful. especially from one year to the next. As for Najee, it is unlikely he will be as good in fantasy as last year, due mostly to Pitt having a bland O-coordinator, and mitchy mostly sucks, maybe if Pickett gets in there it will change the equation. Still, he is a true bell-cow, and those will always be valuable in fantasy.

Exactly. The whole concept of declaring someone a bust after 2 weeks is weird to me. And it is weird weepaws has decided this is going to be his Waterloo. 

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2 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Exactly. The whole concept of declaring someone a bust after 2 weeks is weird to me. And it is weird weepaws has decided this is going to be his Waterloo. 

No no no, I said he would be the biggest bust this past summer, not just after three games, let’s get your story straight.  

And so far I’ve been right.  

Is he worth a top six first round pick to date, nope.  

Thanks. 

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3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No no no, I said he would be the biggest bust this past summer, not just after three games, let’s get your story straight.  

And so far I’ve been right.  

Is he worth a top six first round pick to date, nope.  

Thanks. 

Yes and we know you said Derrick Henry was the man to have because he had 8 solid games last year even though the gap was closing rapidly. Maybe you only play in leagues that are half a season long?

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Just now, Sean Mooney said:

Yes and we know you said Derrick Henry was the man to have because he had 8 solid games last year even though the gap was closing rapidly. Maybe you only play in leagues that are half a season long?

So far Henry as been a bust no question, and so has D Cook no question.  I don’t deny that.  And so has N Harris all based on adp.

 

Thanks 

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weepaws- do you want to predict now that Najee pointswise will finish behind:

 

Kareem Hunt

James Robinson

Antonio Gibson

Corrdarrelle Patterson

AJ Dillon

Damien Harris

Jamaal Williams

David Montgomery

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4 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

weepaws- do you want to predict now that Najee pointswise will finish behind:

 

Kareem Hunt

James Robinson

Antonio Gibson

Corrdarrelle Patterson

AJ Dillon

Damien Harris

Jamaal Williams

David Montgomery

Nope I predict he will be a bust.  

Thanks. 

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2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Nope I predict he will be a bust.  

Thanks. 

Define bust to you? Doesn't finish as a top 6 running back, doesn't finish top 7 overall?

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N Harris in half point ppr won’t finsh in the top 12, so a first round pick, adp top six , he won’t finish as a rb1. 

Thanks for asking.  

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1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

Last year Henry had 61 touches through 2 games. This year it is 35 through 2...So average was 30 last year, this year it is 18. And Henry is the guy weepaws and AxeElf were so determined to mock people for passing over early thinking of course he would duplicate his 2021 numbers.

Cook last year had 50 through 2 games. This year it is 37 through 2. So 25 per game down to 19.

Ekeler last year had 33 touches through 2 games. This year it is 32.

Jonathan Taylor last year had 39. This year 45

as mentioned earlier.  nice work.  you did your research.

I looked at this by game.  game 1 was okay.  he played the giants.  put up decent numbers but not spectacular ones.  his team lost by one point so there were no garbage time carries.

week 2 vs buffalo, was terrible. but I also suspect a lot of RB's will be shut down by that defense.   The bills D is Dynamite.

so I'd say the sample size at this point is too small.

I think he will bounce back but as I have been beating the drum earlier, I dont think he will be elite.   Not with that line.   A good RB can do things behind a poor line but not all the time.

given his ADP I think he will bust, but at the same time I still think he will be a RB1 by year end in terms of stats and fantasy points.   just dont expect him to be finishing top 3 or 4.  I dont think thats gonna happen.

where he finishes, likely means he should have been drafted late first or early second round.

but like I said earlier, its still too early to tell for absolute sure.   I had hoped hed do better against New York but I am not entirely surprised by the Buffalo game based on the quality of the defense he was up against.  I think Buffalo will be a fantasy wasteland for a lot of opposing RB this season.

 

 

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33 minutes ago, weepaws said:

N Harris in half point ppr won’t finsh in the top 12, so a first round pick, adp top six , he won’t finish as a rb1. 

Thanks for asking.  

I'm adding this to the predictions thread. 

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7 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

as mentioned earlier.  nice work.  you did your research.

I looked at this by game.  game 1 was okay.  he played the giants.  put up decent numbers but not spectacular ones.  his team lost by one point so there were no garbage time carries.

week 2 vs buffalo, was terrible. but I also suspect a lot of RB's will be shut down by that defense.   The bills D is Dynamite.

so I'd say the sample size at this point is too small.

I think he will bounce back but as I have been beating the drum earlier, I dont think he will be elite.   Not with that line.   A good RB can do things behind a poor line but not all the time.

given his ADP I think he will bust, but at the same time I still think he will be a RB1 by year end in terms of stats and fantasy points.   just dont expect him to be finishing top 3 or 4.  I dont think thats gonna happen.

where he finishes, likely means he should have been drafted late first or early second round.

but like I said earlier, its still too early to tell for absolute sure.   I had hoped hed do better against New York but I am not entirely surprised by the Buffalo game based on the quality of the defense he was up against.  I think Buffalo will be a fantasy wasteland for a lot of opposing RB this season.

 

 

Oh it's definitely small sample size. That is why we were saying the same thing about Harris in regards to weepaws argument. 

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18 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Oh it's definitely small sample size. That is why we were saying the same thing about Harris in regards to weepaws argument. 

the real concern with henry, the line was weaker than last year, and if I'm not mistaken they've now got injuries to deal with there too.

it is possible he drops into RB2 territory but Im not predicting it until he faces some more teams with a normal D as compared to the beast of a Defense the Bills have.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, weepaws said:

N Harris in half point ppr won’t finsh in the top 12, so a first round pick, adp top six , he won’t finish as a rb1. 

Thanks for asking.  

I drafted Najee in the 2nd round at pick 15. What would he need to finish as to avoid being a bust for me? I don't have the weepaws 'special needs' conversion chart so I would appreciate your 'expertise'.

Thanks.

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30 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I drafted Najee in the 2nd round at pick 15. What would he need to finish as to avoid being a bust for me? I don't have the weepaws 'special needs' conversion chart so I would appreciate your 'expertise'.

Thanks.

haha,  Naj has different issues.  the line is actually (in my opinion) a bit better than last year but good enough.  The problem is QB play hasnt been great.   you are not gonna scare anybody with a QB throwing for 200 yards a game, and i suspect teams are playing to take the run game away and forcing him to throw.  at some point Trubisky will be shown the bench and told to take a seat.   at that point, things will get better but If I owned him I'd be quite worried.

for the record, Naj has looked good on some of the runs I watched last night.   so I dont think the issue there is with HIM.   I think its more game plan and poor QB play that has hindered him.

obviously the lack of garbage time carries compared to last year also hurts him and I'm sure that accounted for a fair bit of his production in games where they have a lead in the 4th quarter.

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4 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

so I dont think the issue there is with HIM

The issue that IS with him is that he can't seem to decide if his foot hurts or not.

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26 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

haha,  Naj has different issues.  the line is actually (in my opinion) a bit better than last year but good enough.  The problem is QB play hasnt been great.   you are not gonna scare anybody with a QB throwing for 200 yards a game, and i suspect teams are playing to take the run game away and forcing him to throw.  at some point Trubisky will be shown the bench and told to take a seat.   at that point, things will get better but If I owned him I'd be quite worried.

for the record, Naj has looked good on some of the runs I watched last night.   so I dont think the issue there is with HIM.   I think its more game plan and poor QB play that has hindered him.

obviously the lack of garbage time carries compared to last year also hurts him and I'm sure that accounted for a fair bit of his production in games where they have a lead in the 4th quarter.

I’m not worried. He’s still getting a ton of touches. If he starts losing those then maybe I’ll start being concerned. There are only a handful of backs who are true bell-cows, and he is one. Pitt will figure things out eventually.

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1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

I'm adding this to the predictions thread. 

I’m 90% sure it’s on there , but if not please do.  

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1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

Oh it's definitely small sample size. That is why we were saying the same thing about Harris in regards to weepaws argument. 

What argument, I’m not in a argument, I just simply made a judgment about a player, who’s adp was a mid first round pick, and he won’t be a rb1 this season, that means top 12.  I don’t play in anything smaller then a 12 team league.  

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

N Harris in half point ppr won’t finsh in the top 12, so a first round pick, adp top six , he won’t finish as a rb1. 

Thanks for asking.  

 

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

I drafted Najee in the 2nd round at pick 15. What would he need to finish as to avoid being a bust for me? I don't have the weepaws 'special needs' conversion chart so I would appreciate your 'expertise'.

Thanks.

I already gave my response to your question, he won’t finish in the top 12 half ppr, I can’t make it any more clear for you.  

Ive never been in a 8 team league, some really great value.  

Thanks. J

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11 minutes ago, weepaws said:

 

I already gave my response to your question, he won’t finish in the top 12 half ppr, I can’t make it any more clear for you.  

Ive never been in a 8 team league, some really great value.  

Thanks. J

What’s not clear is what you consider a bust to be. For example if Najee was drafted as the RB 10 and finished as the RB 13, would that be considered a bust in the Weepaws‘ Special Needs’  conversion chart? TIA

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

So far Henry as been a bust no question, and so has D Cook no question.  I don’t deny that.  And so has N Harris all based on adp.

 

Thanks 

At least the leading fantasy scoring runningback for the Titans is on track to return this week.  Maybe that will help free up space for Henry.

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Yes he can wipe of Henry forehead from all the yards and tds Henry will be getting this next game. 

That is good news.  

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