Is 3rd round to early for Dameon Pierce?

[jtztdm 2]

Seeing how most good rb's will be gone by round 2, is spending a 3rd pick in a 12 man ppr league to early? I will be picking #32 in the 3rd round.

[weepaws 2,460]

I don’t see him having a lot of value in a ppr, the passing game belongs to Burkhead. 

[Ray_T 591]

depends where you value him.

on this site hes listed as a Low end RB2.  if you believe in those projections he is likely to be the 22-25th RB off the board.

His ADP appears to be at #73 which would make him a late 6th round pick.   but some people are high on him, I think his ADP is rising, so if you want him you should probably take him in round 5.

If you value him a lot more than the projections I see you may want to take him as early as round 4 but I do think thats a bit of a reach.   Round 3 is most definitely too early given what the projections tell us.

[AxeElf 787]

Not if you're in a 24 team draft.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

I'm "ok" with him in 5th round, but prefer the 6th or 7th.  The 3rd?  No way!

[rallo 132]

For my blood, yes. Zeke, JC, and Etienne all look better in the 3rd to me, but go for it if he's your guy.

[Ray_T 591]

24 minutes ago, rallo said:

For my blood, yes. Zeke, JC, and Etienne all look better in the 3rd to me, but go for it if he's your guy.

I agree to go for it if hes your guy. 

but why pay full price.  hes gonna be there for sure in round 4, so why buy in round 3?

most people probably start looking at him in the 6th, some who really like him will look at him in round 5 and I'd suggest thats where you take him if he's 'your guy'

round 4 at the very earliest and only if picking late in round 4.

no point paying the price of a cadillac when you can get him for the price of a Honda Civic.   Thats not how you win drafts.

[skinsrule05 30]

4 hours ago, jtztdm said:

Seeing how most good rb's will be gone by round 2, is spending a 3rd pick in a 12 man ppr league to early? I will be picking #32 in the 3rd round.

Way too early.  He used to be a value when he was going 9/10.  That is why people got so high on him.  Now that he is going in the 6th I feel the value is gone.  3rd just forget about it.  Ignore the name, how much would you pay for an RB on a bottom-tier offense that won't be a big part of the passing game?  Oh, and he is a rookie RB drafted in the 4th round that maxed out at 108 carries a season.

If for some reason you still like his potential at least wait until the 5th to take him.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

depends where you value him.

on this site hes listed as a Low end RB2.  if you believe in those projections he is likely to be the 22-25th RB off the board.

His ADP appears to be at #73 which would make him a late 6th round pick.   but some people are high on him, I think his ADP is rising, so if you want him you should probably take him in round 5.

If you value him a lot more than the projections I see you may want to take him as early as round 4 but I do think thats a bit of a reach.   Round 3 is most definitely too early given what the projections tell us.

Yup. Round 3 was a "Kareem Hunt named starter in KC as a rookie" drafting situation. Houston offense is definitely not the KC offense.

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, ZeroTolerance said:

Yup. Round 3 was a "Kareem Hunt named starter in KC as a rookie" drafting situation. Houston offense is definitely not the KC offense.

not anywhere close.

historically RB's on losing teams dont do exceptionally well unless they are pass catchers.  even then, the negative gamescript usually is enough to turf a rookie unless hes a workhorse back coming out on day 1.   I dont know that I see that here.

hes draftable but not this early.

[Super Cubs 132]

If you want him and feel that is where you need to take him to get him, go for it.  Someone else might be thinking the same way and take him before your next pick. 

[kutulu 1,548]

Got him in the late 5th just over a week ago

[AxeElf 787]

27 minutes ago, kutulu said:

Got him in the late 5th just over a week ago

You sound way too proud of that.

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

18 hours ago, weepaws said:

I don’t see him having a lot of value in a ppr, the passing game belongs to Burkhead. 

Not sure people agree. On FantasyPros he goes from #68 overall to #70 overall going from standard to PPR. Yahoo has him 43rd in a Half PPR. And ESPN has him as the #31 running back in a standard and #26 in a PPR. He looks to be going between 37 and 45 at the position. Also, the Texans did not have a ton of passing targets to the running backs last year (42 to David Johnson, 32 to Rex Burkhead)

 

To the OP- this stuff is always fluid and you need to see where your draft is and how it is flowing. In one 12 team draft I was able to grab Zeke Elliott as my 3rd running back at the #25 spot in the 3rd round. In another I had to go Pierce. In another I was able to grab Fournette. I wouldn't necessarily jump Pierce in the 3rd round but if all the other running backs are gone and you feel it is important to lock down that RB3 spot he is a good pickup. But I'd say he is an RB3 for now. His work load was light at Florida so his ADP right now is solely based on potential and not necessarily on production that people have seen. That is a little risky. 

 

 

[kutulu 1,548]

7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

You sound way too proud of that.

Ain't too proud to beg 

[Ray_T 591]

3 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Not sure people agree. On FantasyPros he goes from #68 overall to #70 overall going from standard to PPR. Yahoo has him 43rd in a Half PPR. And ESPN has him as the #31 running back in a standard and #26 in a PPR. He looks to be going between 37 and 45 at the position. Also, the Texans did not have a ton of passing targets to the running backs last year (42 to David Johnson, 32 to Rex Burkhead)

the one thing I will say, Yahoo rankings are crap.  not worth even paying attention to.

Fantasy pros has him pretty close to where I expect his ADP is.  no surprise there.

At the #31 ranked RB for ESPN.... thats a bit low.  but he got annointed the starter pretty late in pre season.  so its possible his proper ranking never had a chance to probably shake out.

when you see this you just have to acknowledge hes probably a low floor, high ceiling player and take that into account when you draft.

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

the one thing I will say, Yahoo rankings are crap.  not worth even paying attention to.

Fantasy pros has him pretty close to where I expect his ADP is.  no surprise there.

At the #31 ranked RB for ESPN.... thats a bit low.  but he got annointed the starter pretty late in pre season.  so its possible his proper ranking never had a chance to probably shake out.

when you see this you just have to acknowledge hes probably a low floor, high ceiling player and take that into account when you draft.

Yeah of the major places I think Yahoo's rankings are the most bullish on people usually. It's a shame because I think their drafting platforms are the most clean looking and the most helpful in the course of a draft.

Like I said- Pierce is probably a RB3. I would draft him at that spot. As far as "3rd round"- it probably depends on your pick. Are you early in the third round (of a 12 team) so like pick 25-28 or are you later like pick 33-36. In a 10 team draft I would say like 5th round at the very earliest. 

 

[Ray_T 591]

5 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Yeah of the major places I think Yahoo's rankings are the most bullish on people usually. It's a shame because I think their drafting platforms are the most clean looking and the most helpful in the course of a draft.

Like I said- Pierce is probably a RB3. I would draft him at that spot. As far as "3rd round"- it probably depends on your pick. Are you early in the third round (of a 12 team) so like pick 25-28 or are you later like pick 33-36. In a 10 team draft I would say like 5th round at the very earliest. 

 

I think hes an RB2 but a low end RB2.    not a huge difference between a low end RB2 and a high end RB3.   but the hype on him got a bit out of control.  he still plays for a bad team and that hurts RB Stats.  Love the player, but hes still a rookie and will have his growing pains on a  bad team.    

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

29 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I think hes an RB2 but a low end RB2.    not a huge difference between a low end RB2 and a high end RB3.   but the hype on him got a bit out of control.  he still plays for a bad team and that hurts RB Stats.  Love the player, but hes still a rookie and will have his growing pains on a  bad team.    

And as I said- he didn't really play all that much at Florida. So he is basically he is more potential than production based drafting at this point. 

[Ray_T 591]

1 minute ago, Sean Mooney said:

And as I said- he didn't really play all that much at Florida. So he is basically he is more potential than production based drafting at this point. 

true.  we are basically drafting a guy who is largely unknown.  

he wasnt good enough to start in college and suddenly hes good enough to start in the NFL?    I suppose its possible he had a dummy for a coach who didnt recognize his talent.  that does happen from time to time, but its a bit of meteoric rise for a player who was largely unknown until recently.

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

when you see this you just have to acknowledge hes probably a low floor, high low ceiling player and take that into account when you draft.

FTFY

The lead RB for the Texans hasn't been a high-ceiling position since Arian Foster.  Only Carlos Hyde has cracked 1,000 yards since 2016.  David Johnson and Rex Burkhead were the Texans' leading rushers for the past two seasons, and they combined for 1,119 total rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs across both years.

Heck, even when it looked like two-time 1000 yard rusher Marlon Mack would be the lead RB, he was still a last-round kind of pick.  Now it's Pierce and he's a third-rounder?  Yeah, that should work out...

[Gepetto 988]

This ranking of #23 RB seems appropriate https://www.fftoday.com/rankings/playerrank.php?o=1&RankType=redraft&Scoring=3&PosID=20&LeagueID=1 

 

#16 RB ranking for week 1  https://www.fftoday.com/rankings/playerwkrank.php

[weepaws 2,460]

If their Qb comes through with a good season , I think Pierce is a high rb3-low rb2 at times half ppr   

Rb3 - high rb4 Ppr. 

FYI Mack only rushed for 1000 yards once.