2023 Draft - Best Players to draft early. Who is a lock?

[justforbeer 39]

It is what drives me crazy every year....Last year J. Taylor killed me, years prior McCaffery.  Seems like RB is the most notorious.

Who should I draft in the first 2 rounds.

You can't usually win a championship in the first 2 rounds, but you can certainly lose it! 

Lock players

Mahomes, Josh Allen, Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce, N. Chubb, Tyreek & Diggs.

[weepaws 2,460]

3 to many qbs, and one to many TEs on that list.  

[polecatt 403]

Draft the best 2 available WRs.

If you can get a duo like Jefferson/Diggs, or Chase/Hill or something similar to that, it would be the way to go IMO.

 

[justforbeer 39]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

3 to many qbs, and one to many TEs on that list.  

Yes, but I have seen a really solid team that gets Jefferson as the 2nd pick and then turns around with Allen/Mahomes in a 12 or 14 team.  It looks pretty good.

Also Kelce/Diggs looks strong too.  Again, RB's almost always bust so the wr/wr or wr/kelce seems like the best bet.

[makindollaz 40]

Kelce is basically a higher end WR1.

Only Jefferson & Chase are higher, and maybe Kupp depending on his hamstring.  Right there with Hill, Adams, Diggs in that next tier, but drafted earlier because of the TE advantage he creates.

[League Champion 1,593]

It's an odd year. There's no value at RB until the first wave are all gone. I'm heavy on WR and QB early this year, which I never was in the past. 

[weepaws 2,460]

I’m leaning on sticking with a first rd rb in both of my 14 team leagues, .5 ppr, full ppr.  

[IGotWorms 3,315]

16 hours ago, polecatt said:

Draft the best 2 available WRs.

If you can get a duo like Jefferson/Diggs, or Chase/Hill or something similar to that, it would be the way to go IMO.

 

This.

Lots of decent middle tier RBs, but there’s a significant difference between the top WRs and the rest.

No reason to go QB early unless it’s super flex. Do bump them up though for 6 pts passing TD scoring systems.

No TE should go in the first four rounds other than Kelce. But he IS worth taking early because he was better than even most WR1s last year. You could actually make a decent case for Kelce as #1 pick

[weepaws 2,460]

No, you get rd one rb,lots of depth at wr, a lot more depth at wr then at rb.  

[justforbeer 39]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

No, you get rd one rb,lots of depth at wr, a lot more depth at wr then at rb.  

I really think you are missing the question here.....

I believe, last year 8 of the top 10 rb's from the previous year sucked.

The argument is, is it worth more to get a top player that has less chance of collapsing and costing your team dearly or not.

You spend your 1st pick on a rb last year and 80% chance they are a dud. 

[weepaws 2,460]

38 minutes ago, justforbeer said:

I really think you are missing the question here.....

I believe, last year 8 of the top 10 rb's from the previous year sucked.

The argument is, is it worth more to get a top player that has less chance of collapsing and costing your team dearly or not.

You spend your 1st pick on a rb last year and 80% chance they are a dud. 

I’m communicating with the other posters. 

I already answered your original question, I think you have 3 to many qbs and 1 to many TEs listed. 

First rd should always be a rb or a wr.  

Based on per game avg from 2021-2022 5 ppr I see 7 Rbs that finished in the top 12 both of those seasons.  

I see 7 WRs that did the same.  

Good luck.  

[justforbeer 39]

21 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m communicating with the other posters. 

I already answered your original question, I think you have 3 to many qbs and 1 to many TEs listed. 

First rd should always be a rb or a wr.  

Based on per game avg from 2021-2022 5 ppr I see 7 Rbs that finished in the top 12 both of those seasons.  

I see 7 WRs that did the same.  

Good luck.  

I understand the QB thinking.  No way in the 1st round for sure.  Kelce in the 1st round is an easy choice.

Question on your stats.  How many of those 7 Rbs that were a top 12 finish were picked in the 1st or 2nd round?

Willing to bet most of them were drafted much later....

[GobbleDog 816]

The "safest first round pick" can't be a Rb for obvious reasons. A few receivers I'd eliminate from the list...

Chase   Injury history

Kupp    Injury history

Hill    Iffy Qb situation (one concussion and gone)

Kelce   turns 34 mid-season with big millage

.................................................................................... That leaves

Jefferson

Lamb

Brown

Diggs

I consider A.J. Brown the "safest" out of those, being just 26 on a high scoring Eagles team, with minimal injury history. Even if his qb goes down, Brown put up big stats with talent-less Tannehill. Clearly doesn't have the upside of Jefferson, but safest in my mind.

 

[weepaws 2,460]

I like A J Brown a lot going into this next season.  

[weepaws 2,460]

22 minutes ago, justforbeer said:

I understand the QB thinking.  No way in the 1st round for sure.  Kelce in the 1st round is an easy choice.

Question on your stats.  How many of those 7 Rbs that were a top 12 finish were picked in the 1st or 2nd round?

Willing to bet most of them were drafted much later....

My list from my .5 ppr league.  These are the names of those seven Rbs   

Henry

Ekeler 

Mixon

Conner

Mccaffery

The Chubb

D Cook

i would say all seven of them where drafted in the first 2 rds   

The WRs would be.  

Kupp

Adams

Jefferson

Chase

Hill

Diggs

Higgins

I would say 6/7 in most probably Higgins in some, so 7/7 in some.  

[justforbeer 39]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

My list from my .5 ppr league.  These are the names of those seven Rbs   

Henry

Ekeler 

Mixon

Conner

Mccaffery

The Chubb

D Cook

i would say all seven of them where drafted in the first 2 rds   

The WRs would be.  

Kupp

Adams

Jefferson

Chase

Hill

Diggs

Higgins

I would say 6/7 in most probably Higgins in some, so 7/7 in some.  

Hold on a second.  Here was the top 10 rbs in scoring last year.

How many were drafted in the first 2 rounds?

1. Josh Jacobs	LV	17	340	1,653	12	64	53	400	0	277.3	16.3
2. Austin Ekeler	LAC	17	204	915	13	127	107	722	5	271.7	16.0
3. Derrick Henry	TEN	16	349	1,538	13	41	33	398	0	271.6	17.0
4. Christian McCaffrey	CAR	17	244	1,139	8	108	85	741	5	266.0	15.6
5. Nick Chubb	CLE	17	302	1,525	12	37	27	239	1	254.4	15.0
6. Saquon Barkley	NYG	16	295	1,312	10	76	57	338	0	225.0	14.1
7. Jamaal Williams	DET	17	262	1,066	17	16	12	73	0	215.9	12.7
8. Tony Pollard	DAL	16	193	1,007	9	55	39	371	3	209.8	13.1
9. Dalvin Cook	MIN	17	264	1,173	8	56	39	295	2	206.8	12.2
10. Miles Sanders	PHI	17	259	1,269	11	26	20	78	0	200.7	11.8

Only 4 top 10 RB's out of 13 Drafted in the first 2 rounds. 4 out of 13 is not good odds.

BUSTS were, Taylor, Harris, Kamara, Mixon, Swift, Fournette, Jones, Williams & Connor.  All drafted in first 2 rounds.

 

1. Jonathan Taylor	IND	17	332	1,811	18	53	40	360	2	337.1	19.8
2. Austin Ekeler	LAC	16	206	911	12	94	70	647	8	275.8	17.2
3. Joe Mixon	CIN	16	292	1,205	13	48	42	314	3	247.9	15.5
4. Najee Harris	PIT	17	307	1,200	7	94	74	467	3	226.7	13.3
5. James Conner	ARI	15	202	752	15	39	37	375	3	220.7	14.7
6. Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	17	237	1,002	10	65	47	287	2	200.9	11.8
7. Nick Chubb	CLE	14	228	1,259	8	25	20	174	1	197.3	14.1
8. Damien Harris	NE	15	202	929	15	20	18	132	0	196.1	13.1
9. Antonio Gibson	WAS	16	258	1,037	7	52	42	294	3	193.1	12.1
10. Alvin Kamara	NO	13	240	898	4	67	47	439	5	187.7	14.4

 

Then the year before, here is the top 10 scoring RB's.

First RD, 9 RB's drafted. - 4 in top 10.

2nd RD, 5 RB's drafted. - 4 in top 10.

So 8 out of 14 make the top 10 is okay.

The total from the last 2 years is 12 out of 27 RB's drafted in the first 2 rounds are in the top 10 in scoring. 45% success rate is not a very good strategy.

[weepaws 2,460]

1. I said based on per game avg, .5 ppr.   

2 that would make it 58%, not great but not bad , same for WRs.  

[IGotWorms 3,315]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

The "safest first round pick" can't be a Rb for obvious reasons. A few receivers I'd eliminate from the list...

Chase   Injury history

Kupp    Injury history

Hill    Iffy Qb situation (one concussion and gone)

Kelce   turns 34 mid-season with big millage

.................................................................................... That leaves

Jefferson

Lamb

Brown

Diggs

I consider A.J. Brown is the "safest" out of those, being just 26 on a high scoring Eagles team, with minimal injury history. Even if his qb goes down, Brown put up big stats with talent-less Tannehill. Clearly doesn't have the upside of Jefferson, but safest in my mind.

 

Brown has Devonta Smith to compete with.

Jefferson’s got no real competition for targets at WR. Yeah there’s Hockenson at TE, but still

[weepaws 2,460]

Even with D Smith , AJ Brown avg only two points less per game .5 ppr, last seven games Jefferson produced 122 .5 points, A J Brown produced 117, and two of those games where without Hurts.  

I think Addison is going to be an upgrade over Thielen.  

[GobbleDog 816]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Brown has Devonta Smith to compete with.

Jefferson’s got no real competition for targets at WR. Yeah there’s Hockenson at TE, but still

I actually think Smith is the one who's going to disappoint.  Too many mouths to feed between Brown, Goedert, Swift (and all the other good Rbs), not to mention Hurts running Tds.  Smith is also a bit scrawny at 6' tall and 170 lbs.  Smith had 95 rec, 1,200 yds, and 7 Tds last year...  impressive, but I doubt he replicates it.  I expect Brown's sheer talent to keep him as a reliable cog in that offense.

I can't argue with ya about Jefferson... you're right, little competition. They feed him til he can't eat no more. Just something about Cousins taking so many hits and the offense getting so many new players... makes me nervous.

[Ray_T 591]

On 8/2/2023 at 3:16 PM, justforbeer said:

It is what drives me crazy every year....Last year J. Taylor killed me, years prior McCaffery.  Seems like RB is the most notorious.

Who should I draft in the first 2 rounds.

You can't usually win a championship in the first 2 rounds, but you can certainly lose it! 

Lock players

Mahomes, Josh Allen, Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce, N. Chubb, Tyreek & Diggs.

what format/rules are you drafting for?   depending on the rules your draft rankings can vary widely.

I'll be honest, true locks dont exist.  any player can get injured and that means nobody is truly a lock.

but you can adjust for certain risks and try to find value when you can.   in the first 2 rounds you want players who are consistent and have a history of not getting injured (for the most part)

the july mock was actually a pretty good indicator of who should be going where under PPR rules.

Weepaws is pretty adamant that QBs should not be taken early and to a degree he is correct.  I dont know that any one QB should be taken in round 1 this year but after that QB's are fair game if you want to go for it.  but it is worth noting the projected dropoff at other positions is higher than the dropoff at QB in the early picks of the draft.    In the july Mock, no QB's went in round 1.   but in a superflex format, lots of QB's will go in round 1 and 2.   

so rules matter.

what I do is I break each position out.   I rank my RB by RB2, RB1 and elite (or Game breaking) RB1.    I do the same for WR and QB.

when I define game breaking players I mean players who are consistently good and can win games for you by themselves if they get hot.    These players are irreplaceable and I try to get as many of them on my roster as I can.

the first 2 rounds is where you  will usually get this type of player.   

after that they are hard to find.

good luck

I wont give you all my secrets, but i have given you a place to start.

[justforbeer 39]

Without giving away all your secrets how about in a standard 12 team PPR league. Name 2 to 3 players you think are the safest bet on having a solid if not great year.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

1 hour ago, justforbeer said:

Without giving away all your secrets how about in a standard 12 team PPR league. Name 2 to 3 players you think are the safest bet on having a solid if not great year.

There’s no secrets. Sorry to whoever said that.

1. Justin Jefferson

2. Jamar Chase

3. Travis Kelce 

Injuries not such a big deal among the passing game people anymore, but that’s the question. If those guys stay healthy, and there’s little indication they won’t, that’s the answer.

Time was it was RBs, because they’re less dependent on their QBs. But even a serviceable QB is find these days since you can’t nail a receiver laid out for a slightly ill thrown ball. Conversely those RBs still get beat to sh1t because those are rarely high velocity hits, the sort where we gotta take a TV timeout.

[JagFan 97]

On 8/3/2023 at 2:02 PM, justforbeer said:

I really think you are missing the question here.....

I believe, last year 8 of the top 10 rb's from the previous year sucked.

The argument is, is it worth more to get a top player that has less chance of collapsing and costing your team dearly or not.

You spend your 1st pick on a rb last year and 80% chance they are a dud. 

I really think you’re missing his answer, and he’s correct.   I guess the whole concept of VBD has gone out the window.

You need one of the few difference makers at RB.  Yes, you could get lucky later in the draft but good luck.  You really have to pay attention to a RBs workload from the previous year, and the teams QB for the current year.  I’ll just throw out one easy example for this year…Jacobs will sink a lot of teams this year, and Chubb will finally finish as the RB1.  The writing is on the wall for both.  That simple.

[FrancieFootball 65]

I'm high this year on Lamb and Chubb.

We get to keep one, an I've both those guys.

The guy who has Ekeler also has Chase.

I have the No. 2 pick, so I'll keep Chubb in hopes that I might get Chase with my first pick. If he gets the No. 1 pick, I'll just go with Lamb and go RB-WR in rounds 2 and 3 unless a top-tier QB is available.

 

[xenon 2]

On 8/2/2023 at 5:10 PM, polecatt said:

Draft the best 2 available WRs.

If you can get a duo like Jefferson/Diggs, or Chase/Hill or something similar to that, it would be the way to go IMO.

 

This is not possible in any draft...unless it's w/ a bunch of morons

[weepaws 2,460]

52 minutes ago, xenon said:

This is not possible in any draft...unless it's w/ a bunch of morons

Agreed. 

[polecatt 403]

59 minutes ago, xenon said:

This is not possible in any draft...unless it's w/ a bunch of morons

That is a bit off, one of those guys with some body like CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, AJ Brown perhaps

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

That is a bit off, one of those guys with some body like CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, AJ Brown perhaps

yeah, the second WR would be a cut below this level or at this level with some baggage or something that is making people move them down their own draft boards.

arguably thats the way it always is in a draft......its a series of tradeoffs.  sometimes simple tradeoffs sometimes more complicated.   

Hopkins went 5th round in the July mock and he is a guy who could be a difference maker at that point in the draft.

the PFF review suggests he is still getting open on a high percentage of his routes but that he suffered from bad QB play after Kyler Murray got hurt.    I feel he still put up solid numbers considering all of this.

I think Carr is a good step above the QB play he had most of last year so I think he will be fine.   even if he performs on a per game basis similar to last year hes still a 1000 yard WR.   but in picking him late (I think the 5th round) I felt there was value there as his floor is reasonable and if he fully bounces back he could be a steal.

[weepaws 2,460]

I think Olave will produce pretty good with Carr. Hopkins might benefit with Tannehill over Murray, I’m not so sure yet that will be the case.  

[GobbleDog 816]

11 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think Olave will produce pretty good with Carr.

Like everyone I assumed Carr would be a big upgrade over Dalton, but I've recently heard analyses comparing them and surprisingly Carr hasn't been much better in recent years (and in some metrics slightly worse). Carr helped Adams have a monster season, but Adams is a proven superstar and it was a totally different system.  

Olave adp is currently WR 14.  That's probably about right. I just worry his ceiling ain't much higher.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

Need to check Olave aDOT last season with those NOLA qbs vs Carr’s aDOT and that of Adam’s with him in LV.  
Just something I’d like to see before making any call on Olave with a risk averse QB like Carr.  

[GobbleDog 816]

12 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Need to check Olave aDOT last season with those NOLA qbs vs Carr’s aDOT and that of Adam’s with him in LV.  
Just something I’d like to see before making any call on Olave with a risk averse QB like Carr.  

2022 aDots-   Olave 14.0, Adams 11.8

But there's a lot of moving parts. Raiders made teams respect the run... big time, which certainly helped Carr and Adams. Doubt the Saints do that.  Carr's metrics are weird - solid arm strength and deep ball accuracy, but he's just so badly inefficient with low completion rate, yards per attempt, etc.

Just look at Carr's stats over the past 5+ years. How in the modern-day NFL can a seasoned vet consistently throw so few yards and Tds.?. It's not like he runs much. Clearly there's a talent issue. Not terrible, just extremely pedestrian.

[weepaws 2,460]

Like I said , I think Olave will produce pretty good with Carr.  Last season Olave per game in half ppr was 22nd, I know Carr isn’t great, but he’s going to be better then what the Saints had last season, and should had more consistency for Olave owners.  

[kutulu 1,548]

On 8/6/2023 at 6:38 PM, xenon said:

This is not possible in any draft...unless it's w/ a bunch of morons

We have a waiting list. 

[Ray_T 591]

ok to add to the conversation, I'm looking at how drafts are going.     It does seem we are seeing more WR going earlier than in past years.

whether you should jump depends on the rules of your league (once again)  

I did an analysis.   from what I can tell if you are not getting one of the top 5 WR on the fftoday board in round 1(PPR only), you shouldnt bother with a WR in round 1.  (top 3 in standard leagues)

#4 and #5 are dicey in standard leagues but there is still a case to be made.for PPR.  but after this point, the dropoff in production levels off some.  so by waiting a round to select another different WR, you are not losing a lot

If you have a flex spot in your league, there is an advantage to going RB-RB in your first 2 rounds with a third RB drafted before round 5.   This is because at WR5 (Kupp projected 187.7 points) the projection is the same as it is for RB 13.   in the july mock I was able to get the RB14 on the board in round 4.   there is no way you will find a WR at that point in the draft who puts up that point level so in a league where you have flex spots, this is an important distinction and you should still draft RB early.  (at least if you think the fftoday rankings are reasonable)

another advantage to this is that RB tends to thin out in a pretty big way once you get past #15 or #16 on the list.   it gets pretty sparse after that.   but if you look at WR you are still getting solid WR at WR30.  (Marquise brown taken at 30  DJ moore at 29 in the july mock.... still solid players)

to that end I see two strategies working well in this draft year:

1)  get a top 5 WR in round 1 and going hard on RB the next 3-4 rounds then flip the switch and go back to WR or grab a QB

2) go RB hard early and then come back and take WR later as solid players will still be there.

 

I actually wanted to do option 1 in the july mock, but too many WR went early so I had to pivot and go with strategy #2.    an interesting strategy was played in the June Mock with White Wonder taking RB in each of the first 4 rounds and WR thereafter.   he actually had a pretty solid team from what I could see.   so that strategy can still work.

either way, I think these are the best options.

 

good luck

[justforbeer 39]

42 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

ok to add to the conversation, I'm looking at how drafts are going.     It does seem we are seeing more WR going earlier than in past years.

whether you should jump depends on the rules of your league (once again)  

I did an analysis.   from what I can tell if you are not getting one of the top 5 WR on the fftoday board in round 1(PPR only), you shouldnt bother with a WR in round 1.  (top 3 in standard leagues)

#4 and #5 are dicey in standard leagues but there is still a case to be made.for PPR.  but after this point, the dropoff in production levels off some.  so by waiting a round to select another different WR, you are not losing a lot

If you have a flex spot in your league, there is an advantage to going RB-RB in your first 2 rounds with a third RB drafted before round 5.   This is because at WR5 (Kupp projected 187.7 points) the projection is the same as it is for RB 13.   in the july mock I was able to get the RB14 on the board in round 4.   there is no way you will find a WR at that point in the draft who puts up that point level so in a league where you have flex spots, this is an important distinction and you should still draft RB early.  (at least if you think the fftoday rankings are reasonable)

another advantage to this is that RB tends to thin out in a pretty big way once you get past #15 or #16 on the list.   it gets pretty sparse after that.   but if you look at WR you are still getting solid WR at WR30.  (Marquise brown taken at 30  DJ moore at 29 in the july mock.... still solid players)

to that end I see two strategies working well in this draft year:

1)  get a top 5 WR in round 1 and going hard on RB the next 3-4 rounds then flip the switch and go back to WR or grab a QB

2) go RB hard early and then come back and take WR later as solid players will still be there.

 

I actually wanted to do option 1 in the july mock, but too many WR went early so I had to pivot and go with strategy #2.    an interesting strategy was played in the June Mock with White Wonder taking RB in each of the first 4 rounds and WR thereafter.   he actually had a pretty solid team from what I could see.   so that strategy can still work.

either way, I think these are the best options.

 

good luck

Nice response.  Thanks

[weepaws 2,460]

Been able to grap the Chubb is a lot of my mock drafts ppr, then I hit WRs next three, then back to Rbs.  

In the second rd I’ve been able to land AJ Brown as my anchor at wr.  

[GobbleDog 816]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

RB tends to thin out in a pretty big way once you get past #15 or #16 on the list.   it gets pretty sparse after that. 

It ain't as thin as it used to be. I used to draft Rbs early and often - starting one in flex like you said, but I've changed my ways. Partly because they're so hard to predict with injuries and under-performance. Plus with few "bell cows" in today's NFL and more committees, there's opportunities. My strategy: draft a stud, then shotgun the middle/late. Me last year:

Rd 2) Jav Williams ... ok I got screwed, but on pace for top 5

-----------------------------------------------

Rd 6) Clyde Edwards ... decent til he stunk

Rd 7) Miles Sanders ... found my #2

Rd 8.) Dev Singletary ... bye-week filler

Rd 9) Henderson ... didn't pan out

Rd 12) Jam Williams...  lotto winner!

Throw in waiver pickups and no problem filling Rb spots, even after Williams injury.  Meanwhile my three early round Wrs stayed healthy all year and finished close to projections (as Wrs tend to do). The strategy even allowed me to waste a 5th on a good Qb (burrow). That draft style wouldn't have worked in the "bell cow" era with no reliable Rbs after round 4-5, but does today. Of course any strategy can win, as long as ya nail the picks.

[GobbleDog 816]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Been able to grap the Chubb is a lot of my mock drafts ppr, then I hit WRs next three, then back to Rbs.  

In the second rd I’ve been able to land AJ Brown as my anchor at wr.  

IMO, the two safest players at their positions.  Nice.