Late round Tight Ends

[GobbleDog 816]

Some draft a TE early; some wait til middle rounds. Then there's us stubborn morons who wait til double-digit rounds.  With backup Te's going before our first selection, there ain't much left by round 12.  But we did this to ourselves, so let's dig our way out.

Te 16 Chigoziem Okonkwo - Titans 2022 4th rd pick, finished Te 23 with only 8 starts. His adp crept up in recent months becoming a popular "Te sleeper."  After a slow rookie start - finished Te 7 from Weeks 12-18. His metrics were very impressive - efficiency, avoided tackles, etc. His YAC per reception (7.9) ranked #1 among all Te's with 30+ receptions. Clearly a gifted athlete who can get open, break tackles, and make big plays. So what's not to like?  Oh yeah it's the Titans.. see Henry run... watch Tannehill suck... and now Hopkins is in town. Still the kid's a great talent which coaches must to want to utilize, and the Titans probably won't run 29 yo Henry every single play again. Oko's adp ranks 142nd overall or late-12th round. 

Te 17 Gerald Everett - finished Te 13 last year despite missing a game (injured early in another). The 29 yo had a career high in targets (87), partly due to Wr injuries, but only 4 Tds. Now there's a another receiver in LA (Quentin), so a repeat of targets is questionable. His metrics are decent (most YAC on team after Ekler), though too many drops. Based on all that, the current rank below last year's finish is understandable. However, the Chargers have a new OC in Kellen Moore. In Dallas, Moore helped Dak reach career passing highs and made Shultz a top 5 TE. Herbert threw 4,700+ yds last year despite many injuries, so a healthy Herbert should push 5,000+ again.  Everette's adp ranks 151st overall or mid-13th round. 

Te 18 Juwan Johnson - finished Te 16 last year (mainly due to 7 Tds, all scored late in season). He turns 27 soon which is typically when Te's peak. Interestingly started career as an undrafted Wr, but switched to Te. Had his best season last year (average metrics) with Dalton at qb. Now Carr takes over, who made Waller a star in Vegas.  He'll have to share with Te Hill, but if Michael Thomas gets injured again (guaranteed), it'll open up more opportunities. Johnson's adp ranks as the 163rd overall or mid-14th round. 

So, who are my fellow stubborn drafters scouting? 

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

Good suggestions… couple more…

Ferguson - Pokes

Dulcich - Mile High 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

All the rookie TEs, all those late TEs will good streamers.  I don’t even look at TEs until the day off or the day before I draft. I always draft them third to last.  

 

[Vikings4ever 496]

I've been targeting Taysom Hill. He probably won't repeat his TD numbers, but he'll get his chances to score. Which is about as much as you can ask for from a TE that late.

[GobbleDog 816]

On 8/7/2023 at 4:00 PM, Vikings4ever said:

I've been targeting Taysom Hill. He probably won't repeat his TD numbers, but he'll get his chances to score. Which is about as much as you can ask for from a TE that late.

Taysom Hill - the enigma who won't go away. Five years in the NFL - a CAREER total of 43 receptions..........  and 42 Tds    

Turns 33 this month, but doesn't seem to have slowed. 14 Tds last year, up from 9 and 10 years prior.  Averaged 6.0 yds per carry last year on 96 carries. Incredible considering goal line attempts included. 

Te 22, so he's basically free. Ultimate boom or bust, but most Te's are that late in the draft.

[weepaws 2,460]

To much bust not enough boom to stream Hill.  I’ll let other suffer him, and most of the time they do. 

[polecatt 403]

I think if you're to the late teens or 20s in the TE rankings then Taysom Hill should be the choice.

A lot of weeks he's not gonna get much of anything at all. However, 2-3 games he's gonna blow up, a whole lot more than a TE that low in the ranks.

The weeks he doesn't blow up, you're likely only out a couple of points any way

[weepaws 2,460]

Most weeks he’s not worth a streamer.  

[GobbleDog 816]

19 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Most weeks he’s not worth a streamer.  

It's true. Closer look at Hill last season: 5 out 16 games played... less than 5 fantasy points. 9 games... less than 10 points. Only broke 15 points twice... 15.3 and 36.4.  And that's with a phenomenal 14 total tds which likely won't happen again. Now he's pushing 33 yo. Last year may have been his swan song.

[Vikings4ever 496]

4 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

It's true. Closer look at Hill last season: 5 out 16 games played... less than 5 fantasy points. 9 games... less than 10 points. Only broke 15 points twice... 15.3 and 36.4.  And that's with a phenomenal 14 total tds which likely won't happen again. Now he's pushing 33 yo. Last year may have been his swan song.

I'll point out that scoring system matters with him. Non-PPR, he was MUCH more valuable.

Hill: 1 game >15 points, 6 sub 5 point games, 10 sub 10 point games
Kittle: 4 games > 15 points, 7 sub 5 point games, 10 sub 10 point games
Hockenson: 2 games> 15 points, 7 sub 5 point games, 13 sub 10 point games
Andrews: 3 games > 15 points, 6 sub 5 point games, 10 sub 10 point games
Engram: 1 game >15 points, 10 sub 5 point games, 14 sub 10 point games

So, non-PPR, all the TEs outside of Kelce were inconsistent. Is he a guy you draft as a starter? No. Is he a guy that (with a deep enough roster) you grab as a TE2 and hold for a starter injury/bye week? There's much worse options, IMHO.

[League Champion 1,593]

I'm all over Higby, anywhere that I can get him. He's so undervalued right now. 

[JagFan 97]

9 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

It's true. Closer look at Hill last season: 5 out 16 games played... less than 5 fantasy points. 9 games... less than 10 points. Only broke 15 points twice... 15.3 and 36.4.  And that's with a phenomenal 14 total tds which likely won't happen again. Now he's pushing 33 yo. Last year may have been his swan song.

His swan song will come in Denver in the next couple of years.

[polecatt 403]

13 hours ago, Vikings4ever said:

I'll point out that scoring system matters with him. Non-PPR, he was MUCH more valuable.

Hill: 1 game >15 points, 6 sub 5 point games, 10 sub 10 point games
Kittle: 4 games > 15 points, 7 sub 5 point games, 10 sub 10 point games
Hockenson: 2 games> 15 points, 7 sub 5 point games, 13 sub 10 point games
Andrews: 3 games > 15 points, 6 sub 5 point games, 10 sub 10 point games
Engram: 1 game >15 points, 10 sub 5 point games, 14 sub 10 point games

So, non-PPR, all the TEs outside of Kelce were inconsistent. Is he a guy you draft as a starter? No. Is he a guy that (with a deep enough roster) you grab as a TE2 and hold for a starter injury/bye week? There's much worse options, IMHO.

Those are all top TE1s. Of course those guys should be taken over Taysom Hill. Even with those guys, There's still several games to where their production is quite minimal.

When you get to low end TE2/waiver wire TEs. The kind of TE you're happy if they catch 3 passes for 45 yards in a game. Maybe two or three times a season they catch a TD.

Taysom Hill offers an off chance of a huge game that those others just don't

 

[nobody 2,043]

I don't know where Cade Otton is on people's rankings, but he might be worth a look.  Trask has been rumored to be overtaking Baker.  TB will be down a lot, and they finally got Cameron Brate out of the way, so Otton should be the primary option from the TE position given that Kieft is blocker.

Chig is my guy, but if it wasn't for the poor QB situation in TB, I think Otton would be getting more love.

[weepaws 2,460]

Another streamer. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

On 8/7/2023 at 1:42 PM, GobbleDog said:

Te 18 Juwan Johnson - finished Te 16 last year (mainly due to 7 Tds, all scored late in season). He turns 27 soon which is typically when Te's peak. Interestingly started career as an undrafted Wr, but switched to Te. Had his best season last year (average metrics) with Dalton at qb. Now Carr takes over, who made Waller a star in Vegas.  He'll have to share with Te Hill, but if Michael Thomas gets injured again (guaranteed), it'll open up more opportunities. Johnson's adp ranks as the 163rd overall or mid-14th round. 

Right here. Hill is just a gimmick. His scoring last year came almost entirely from rushing and one big game. Trautman is gone. Derek Carr is a big upgrade from last years QB play and we know he utilized Waller. 

I don't even think there needs to be an injury to Thomas for Johnson to have a solid season as a later picked TE

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

17 hours ago, League Champion said:

I'm all over Higby, anywhere that I can get him. He's so undervalued right now. 

Taylor Higby all the way 

[League Champion 1,593]

1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

Taylor Higby all the way 

Him to 

[Swim54 4]

The "free" guy i'm liking is Juwan Johnson. He looks the part and has the potential to be a red zone monster. Will he be, idk but you are drafting for upside knowing you likely need to stream at that point anyhow. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Johnson is probably my top target for double digit round TEs.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

16 hours ago, weepaws said:

Johnson is probably my top target for double digit round TEs.  

winner ^ 

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

On 8/7/2023 at 2:05 PM, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Good suggestions… couple more…

Ferguson - Pokes

Dulcich - Mile High 

 

Ferguson - still a good target

Dulcich - no longer a good target (see Sean Payton) 

[GobbleDog 816]

19 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Ferguson - still a good target

One of the most baffling off-season moves... Jerry Jones firing of OC Kellen Moore. Apparently they were scoring too many points. Dak had his best years under Moore, as did Te Shultz.  If he was still OC I'd be more optimistic about 2nd year Ferguson (even though Fergy had minimal stats from last year to analyze)

So who did Dallas replace Moore with? Brian Schottenheimer last hired by Urban Meyer as a passing coordinator, but fired at the end of the year.  Schott did have a couple decent years as OC in Seattle - Seahawks led rushing his first year, but was fired after 2020.

Jerry Jones considers him an upgrade over Moore.?.  It's insane.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

One of the most baffling off-season moves... Jerry Jones firing of OC Kellen Moore. Apparently they were scoring too many points. Dak had his best years under Moore, as did Te Shultz.  If he was still OC I'd be more optimistic about 2nd year Ferguson (even though Fergy had minimal stats from last year to analyze)

So who did Dallas replace Moore with? Brian Schottenheimer last hired by Urban Meyer as a passing coordinator, but fired at the end of the year.  Schott did have a couple decent years as OC in Seattle - Seahawks led rushing his first year, but was fired after 2020.

Jerry Jones considers him an upgrade over Moore.?.  It's insane.

100% 

[nobody 2,043]

I have a hot take for you gentlemen.

1. Fact - Runningbacks are devalued under the current system in which the rules allow for passing game efficiency
2. Fact - Increased passing rates has driven the market value of wide receivers higher.  
3. Fact - NFL team building is an exercise in resource management and getting ROI on contracts

Conclusion - Market forces should drive teams to utilize tightends in the offense to a greater degree given the inflation we are seeing in wide receiver contracts only partially offset by deflation in riunningback contracts.

I expect there to be an overall rise in production coming from the TE position over the next few years.  This will have the effect of reducing the advantage of the top TEs as the supply of higher scoring TEs increases.

[GobbleDog 816]

26 minutes ago, nobody said:

Conclusion - Market forces should drive teams to utilize tightends in the offense to a greater degree given the inflation we are seeing in wide receiver contracts only partially offset by deflation in riunningback contracts.

I expect there to be an overall rise in production coming from the TE position over the next few years.  This will have the effect of reducing the advantage of the top TEs as the supply of higher scoring TEs increases.

Makes sense. Every season for the past decade Te's keep getting more involved so the trend will probably continue.

My problem with drafting Te early is there's the top 5 (cost 1st to 5th rd picks), then the rest. Last year Te 6 (Higbee) scored 152 points while Te 15 (Johnson) scored 135 points. The difference was less than 0.9 points per game. How can ya justify a 5th, 6th, 7th, etc. rounder knowing that? 

Even if you invest a 2nd round pick and luck out with him actually finishing Te 2 like Hockenson last year who scored 215 points, the point difference between Te 15 equated to only 4.4 points per game. So even if you nail the pick, the advantage still doesn't amount to much. Other than Kelce, there just isn't enough point discrepancy for me to pull the trigger.

[League Champion 1,593]

8 hours ago, nobody said:

expect there to be an overall rise in production coming from the TE position over the next few years.  This will have the effect of reducing the advantage of the top TEs as the supply of higher scoring TEs increases.

I don't disagree but the value still isn't there yet, only if it's a TE Premium League. Target shares will dictate that. 

You're right, we'll eventually see more of the Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts type, etc. Who aren't going to be in on 3rd down pass pro but lined up nonetheless. In essence they aren't really TEs anymore but more of a second slot, and the markets will adjust accordingly and eventually. 

Sam LaPorta is the next superstar TE in my opinion. I'm all in for dynasty. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Streamers.  

[League Champion 1,593]

What is the word on Mayer? I'm not hearing much buzz. 

[GobbleDog 816]

3 hours ago, League Champion said:

What is the word on Mayer? I'm not hearing much buzz. 

Te 26 Michael Mayer - Vegas early-2nd rd pick from Notre Dame. That's all I got.

Rookie Te on a bad team - that usually doesn't end well. A team that might secretly be in tank mode for picks and rebuild.

[League Champion 1,593]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Te 26 Michael Mayer - Vegas early-2nd rd pick from Notre Dame. That's all I got.

Rookie Te on a bad team - that usually doesn't end well. A team that might secretly be in tank mode for picks and rebuild.

Same. I'm not hearing great stuff out of camp. 

[nobody 2,043]

I've been sitting on Luke Musgrave, but now that he's getting hype, I'm kind of bummed.  That means he's going to have a torn ACL by week 2

[League Champion 1,593]

6 hours ago, nobody said:

I've been sitting on Luke Musgrave, but now that he's getting hype, I'm kind of bummed.  That means he's going to have a torn ACL by week 2

Haha, for sure. I love Musgrave, maybe not this year but IMO he's a must roster in Dynasty. 

[thegeneral 1,414]

LaPorta on Detroit getting some buzz.

Waited on TE this year and am now deciding between him and Okonkwo.

[kilroy69 994]

20 hours ago, thegeneral said:

LaPorta on Detroit getting some buzz.

Waited on TE this year and am now deciding between him and Okonkwo.

I was literally coming here to talk about him. I took Kittle early and plan on using him but LaPorta was there late and I took him too. He is arriving at the perfect time for a TE to score 6-8 tds in what looks to be a high scoring offense. 

[thegeneral 1,414]

20 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I was literally coming here to talk about him. I took Kittle early and plan on using him but LaPorta was there late and I took him too. He is arriving at the perfect time for a TE to score 6-8 tds in what looks to be a high scoring offense. 

He’s in a good spot to thrive.

Personally deciding to stick with Okonkwo who is in a similar good spot but is a coin flip right now.

Can’t carry two TEs on a shallow bench but am definitely watching closely. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Never a need two draft two TEs.  Ewwwwww 

[Phil Simms 11 127]

Took Higbee and Schultz late, hoping one is decent 

[GobbleDog 816]

On 8/29/2023 at 8:48 AM, Phil Simms 11 said:

Took Higbee and Schultz late, hoping one is decent 

Higbee was the 4th most targeted Te last year (108). Impressive. No so impressive his painfully low 8.6 yd rec average and just 3 Tds. Despite a long career, the most Tds he's ever had was 5. Still Td's are fluky and if I thought he'd get all those targets again I'd like him more. But the Rams traded with Miami for Te Hunter Long who they probably hope can improve their Te production.

Schultz a gifted athlete at the prime-time Te age of 27. Finished Te 10 last year despite missing two games and Dak not looking his best. The year prior he was Te 3 - incredible. The only knock is he's in a new system (likely slower paced than Cowboys), new coaches, rookie Qb... so nobody knows how much he'll be utilized. But how could they not want to put the ball in his hands? Look at his stats. I bet Schultz is the one that hits for you.

[nobody 2,043]

On 8/16/2023 at 6:13 PM, nobody said:

I have a hot take for you gentlemen.

1. Fact - Runningbacks are devalued under the current system in which the rules allow for passing game efficiency
2. Fact - Increased passing rates has driven the market value of wide receivers higher.  
3. Fact - NFL team building is an exercise in resource management and getting ROI on contracts

Conclusion - Market forces should drive teams to utilize tightends in the offense to a greater degree given the inflation we are seeing in wide receiver contracts only partially offset by deflation in runningback contracts.

I expect there to be an overall rise in production coming from the TE position over the next few years.  This will have the effect of reducing the advantage of the top TEs as the supply of higher scoring TEs increases.

Market is shifting