Drafting #1 - who ya got?

[MissionCoach 4]

I drew the 1.1 draft slot this year, not sure its such an advantage.  Seems as though Jefferson is the #1 slam dunk pick.  Like the pick, plus he's going into a contact year which is surely an added incentive.  

All the mocks I have done have the top WR's flying off the board in the first 2 rounds.  Sometimes Davonte Smith drops to me at 2.24,, very happy to have him as a 2nd WR....sometimes my top WR choices are Cooper, Metcalf, DJ Moore, McLauren, Higgins, Deebo, London, and Allen.  I'm leaning towards Cooper, thinking Watson got the rust off and he and Cooper are going to connect for a very good year.  But there are arguments to be made for all the other receivers.  Thoughts?

Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Rhamondre Stevenson have also been falling. All with big question marks now due to holdouts, injury, and FA signings (Zeke in NE).  Scary group, could be fools gold?

What are my fellow drafters with the 1st slot looking at draft wise in the 1st  - 3 rounds, hoping yo get some feedback., Good luck all.

 

[weepaws 2,460]

PPR, Half PPR, Non PPR? How many teams, how much did it cost you to join this league? 

[makindollaz 40]

Found out a got the #1 in one of my redrafts.  Full PPR, 12 teams and I’m going Jefferson.  Looking at best WR on the board and maybe Najee on the 2-3 round flip.  Feel like Najee will bounce back and doesn’t have a TD vulture backup like Stevenson or Etienne.

[weepaws 2,460]

I think Harris has a vulture more dangerous then a td vulture, his name his Warren.  

[MissionCoach 4]

Its a 12 team league, 1 ppr, standard scoring, 500 entry

[GobbleDog 816]

Don't know my position yet, so I mock draft everywhere. From the #1 spot I draft Jefferson and after it snakes back whichever Rb and Wr. All is well.

Finally, the 4th/5th rd picks... to me the most difficult decision. Last chance at a semi-elite Qb (Burrow, Herbert, etc.), because after it snakes back 22 picks later, you'll be rolling with Dak, Tua, or Cousins, etc. If you're cool with that, then maybe it won't be difficult. But I ain't cool with it. I'm drafting a Qb here.

Now the hard part - what to do with that other pick? Wr, Te, or Rb? If you don't take a Rb here (and there's decent one's), the chances of landing a reliable #2 Rb in the 6th round are slim. You'll be staring at the board in disbelief as Akers, Conner, White, Mattison, Dobbins, Pacheco... all disappear just before you pick. Occasionally one makes it, but usually not. On the flip side, there's a massive drop in Wr and Te talent between the rounds. After realizing this issue, I've been defaulting to just taking a Rb with the other pick.  Which stinks because at any other position, I know I can rely on getting one of those decent Rbs in the 6th rd.  But not from the 1 spot.

[weepaws 2,460]

Take Jefferson #1.  On the rebound I would go rb, and probably the third also.  I’m a rb drafter. I like to get an elite wr then go rb next two, then wr/wr.  Good luck OP.  500$ buy in, now that’s a real league.  

[polecatt 403]

Most likely I would take Jefferson in PPR.  80%

If not him then it would probably be CMC.   20%

[GobbleDog 816]

7 minutes ago, polecatt said:

If not him then it would probably be CMC.   20%

There's rumblings McCaff might not get the workload everyone expects, as Niners could keep him fresh for an expected playoff push. He's older, with injury history, and lots of millage. Makes sense why they might.

Just what I've heard.

[weepaws 2,460]

21 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Most likely I would take Jefferson in PPR.  80%

If not him then it would probably be CMC.   20%

Jefferson or Ekeler, I would rather go Ekeler over Mccaffery, I think Niners will use more Rbs and rotate more often.  Ekeler has no else on the Chargers to compete for sone of his work load.  Imo.  

[GobbleDog 816]

8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Jefferson or Ekeler, I would rather go Ekeler over Mccaffery, I think Niners will use more Rbs and rotate more often.  Ekeler has no else on the Chargers to compete for sone of his work load.  Imo.  

Me too.  Surprising McCaff is even ranked ahead of Ekeler, considering their situations.

[League Champion 1,593]

Unless it's a 2 QB League you take Jefferson without question. In fact I'm going zero RB till at least the 4th round. There's great value in that range. 

[Gepetto 988]

1.01 Justin Jefferson

[makindollaz 40]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Don't know my position yet, so I mock draft everywhere. From the #1 spot I draft Jefferson and after it snakes back whichever Rb and Wr. All is well.

Finally, the 4th/5th rd picks... to me the most difficult decision. Last chance at a semi-elite Qb (Burrow, Herbert, etc.), because after it snakes back 22 picks later, you'll be rolling with Dak, Tua, or Cousins, etc. If you're cool with that, then maybe it won't be difficult. But I ain't cool with it. I'm drafting a Qb here.

Now the hard part - what to do with that other pick? Wr, Te, or Rb? If you don't take a Rb here (and there's decent one's), the chances of landing a reliable #2 Rb in the 6th round are slim. You'll be staring at the board in disbelief as Akers, Conner, White, Mattison, Dobbins, Pacheco... all disappear just before you pick. Occasionally one makes it, but usually not. On the flip side, there's a massive drop in Wr and Te talent between the rounds. After realizing this issue, I've been defaulting to just taking a Rb with the other pick.  Which stinks because at any other position, I know I can rely on getting one of those decent Rbs in the 6th rd.  But not from the 1 spot.

I like Mattison on the 4/5 flip, along with another WR.  Figure at that point I’ll have Harris & Mattison at RB.  Jefferson, and probably a couple of guys like Olave & DJ Moore.  Rolling the dice someone like Lawrence along with Pitts or Goedert will be there at 6/7.

[weepaws 2,460]

51 minutes ago, League Champion said:

Unless it's a 2 QB League you take Jefferson without question. In fact I'm going zero RB till at least the 4th round. There's great value in that range. 

I think the value isn’t has great has it looks.  

[weepaws 2,460]

22 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

I like Mattison on the 4/5 flip, along with another WR.  Figure at that point I’ll have Harris & Mattison at RB.  Jefferson, and probably a couple of guys like Olave & DJ Moore.  Rolling the dice someone like Lawrence along with Pitts or Goedert will be there at 6/7.

I think Hunt plays for the Vikings this next season.  

[GobbleDog 816]

16 hours ago, makindollaz said:

I like Mattison on the 4/5 flip, along with another WR.  Figure at that point I’ll have Harris & Mattison at RB.  Jefferson, and probably a couple of guys like Olave & DJ Moore.  Rolling the dice someone like Lawrence along with Pitts or Goedert will be there at 6/7.

I'm also a big fan of Lawrence this year and if I thought he'd still be there the end of the 6th, I'd absolutely do it. And based on my mocks he usually is, I'd say 75% of the time. He's usually drafted early-mid round 7. But that's not a gamble I'm willing to take.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

8 hours ago, MissionCoach said:

I drew the 1.1 draft slot this year, not sure its such an advantage.  Seems as though Jefferson is the #1 slam dunk pick.  Like the pick, plus he's going into a contact year which is surely an added incentive.  

All the mocks I have done have the top WR's flying off the board in the first 2 rounds.  Sometimes Davonte Smith drops to me at 2.24,, very happy to have him as a 2nd WR....sometimes my top WR choices are Cooper, Metcalf, DJ Moore, McLauren, Higgins, Deebo, London, and Allen.  I'm leaning towards Cooper, thinking Watson got the rust off and he and Cooper are going to connect for a very good year.  But there are arguments to be made for all the other receivers.  Thoughts?

Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Rhamondre Stevenson have also been falling. All with big question marks now due to holdouts, injury, and FA signings (Zeke in NE).  Scary group, could be fools gold?

What are my fellow drafters with the 1st slot looking at draft wise in the 1st  - 3 rounds, hoping yo get some feedback., Good luck all.

 

God help the man that relies on Amari Cooper. I’d lean towards Higgins

[Ray_T 591]

not considering CMC or Ekeler?

I feel like elite runners are in shorter supply than elite WR this year.

personally I like Ekeler as he has less of an injury history compared to CMC but the upside with CMC is hard to ignore, and San Fran really knows how to run the ball.

[League Champion 1,593]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

not considering CMC or Ekeler?

I feel like elite runners are in shorter supply than elite WR this year.

personally I like Ekeler as he has less of an injury history compared to CMC but the upside with CMC is hard to ignore, and San Fran really knows how to run the ball.

WR is the safer pick though. You're going to hold your breath waiting for CMC to blow a hammy, and chances are he will. Ekeler is a year older in a new offense where the new OC made it clear that they need to diversify and who else is elite in fantasy terms? Maybe Chubb IMO. 

I'd rather get the sure thing at WR (or QB) and wait on a Josh Jacobs, Najee, Mattison, Rhamondre, Monty, Akers, Rashaad White, etc. 

My strategy in every draft so far was to hammer WR/QB early and RB around the 4th or 5th and I love the way my rosters look. 

Zero RB is the play this year IMO. 

 

[Ray_T 591]

4 hours ago, League Champion said:

WR is the safer pick though. You're going to hold your breath waiting for CMC to blow a hammy, and chances are he will. Ekeler is a year older in a new offense where the new OC made it clear that they need to diversify and who else is elite in fantasy terms? Maybe Chubb IMO. 

I'd rather get the sure thing at WR (or QB) and wait on a Josh Jacobs, Najee, Mattison, Rhamondre, Monty, Akers, Rashaad White, etc. 

My strategy in every draft so far was to hammer WR/QB early and RB around the 4th or 5th and I love the way my rosters look. 

Zero RB is the play this year IMO. 

 

tough year to go zero RB.  RB depth is thin this year.   and WR depth has never been this good.

simple supply and demand suggests that this may be one year where you may struggle with this strategy.   I suppose it may depend on your league (and rules) but I get the aversion to CMC due to injury.   I'm not even sure I'd take him if picking #1 overall, but I would think about it.   the fact nobody has mentioned him is what led me to make my previous comment.  I'm a bit surprised is all.

[weepaws 2,460]

I agree, I wouldn’t wait until 4th-5rd for my first rb.   I think it’s thinner then most imo.  

[League Champion 1,593]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

RB depth is thin this year

But that's exactly why you don't overdraft a RB. Outside of 3-4 good running backs, it's thin for everyone. 

[GobbleDog 816]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

tough year to go zero RB.  RB depth is thin this year.

I'm a Wr-Rb-Wr guy, but for fun I've mocked "zero Rb" and I'd be ok with some of my teams. No workhorses obviously, but startable backs to fill two messily spots.

Rd 4) Sanders, Rd 6) Dobbins, Rd 8.) Robinson,  Rd 10) Harris ... < startable

Rd 11) Achane, Rd 12) Ford, Rd 13) Chandler ... < lotto tickets

Could beef it up with more backs in Rds 5 or 7, fewer lotto tickets.

 

[DaBeerz 88]

I actually really hate the #1 overall spot, too damn long to wait between picks for my liking but #1 overall ain't clear cut at all this year. Depends on league/scoring of course. I'd probably play safe and take Ekeler over CMC but that's me. 

 

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

We need to start 3 WR and a flex in one 12t league and zero RB is something I'm seriously considering, dependent on my pick position of course.

Pacheco
Montgomery
Dobbins
Swift
Perine
Charbonnet
Gainwell 

5-6 of those types to fill 2 starting spots with 2 studs and a Ridley/DJ/Aiyuk as WR3 is tempting imho... 

[GobbleDog 816]

31 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

5-6 of those types to fill 2 starting spots with 2 studs and a Ridley/DJ/Aiyuk as WR3 is tempting imho... 

3 Wrs & flex... If my league let me start 4 Wrs, I'd draft them early and often. Still, don't be so stubborn with the strategy you'd let Chubb pass in the 2nd (travesty he falls so far) or another top ten Rb's in 3rd/4th. If no great options appear, then zero rb it is.

I like Ridley & Aiyuk, but somebody should start a Diontae Johnson thread. There's lots of nextgen stats and situational reasons why he's ridiculously overvalued.

[Ray_T 591]

5 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

but somebody should start a Diontae Johnson thread.

I think you just Volunteered. 

state your case, use the appropriate metrics and we will all discuss.  I look forward to the conversation 

[GobbleDog 816]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I think you just Volunteered. 

state your case, use the appropriate metrics and we will all discuss.  I look forward to the conversation 

I start threads to hear opinions or discuss sleepers.  Not to say "this guy sucks."

[Ray_T 591]

Just now, GobbleDog said:

I start threads to hear opinions or discuss sleepers.  Not to say "this guy sucks."

I do that too, but sometimes it degenerates into this guy sucks.

personally I can go to any idiot to get that opinion.   I want to know reasons.

Metrics catch/drop % completion % and so on.    maybe a description of the offense highlighting that this player isnt suited because his skillset is better used in a different offense.

Thats what I want to see 

[GobbleDog 816]

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I want to know reasons.

Metrics catch/drop % completion % and so on.    maybe a description of the offense highlighting that this player isnt suited because his skillset is better used in a different offense.

Thats what I want to see 

I think we found a new volunteer!

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

27 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

3 Wrs & flex... If my league let me start 4 Wrs, I'd draft them early and often. Still, don't be so stubborn with the strategy you'd let Chubb pass in the 2nd (travesty he falls so far) or another top ten Rb's in 3rd/4th. If no great options appear, then zero rb it is.

I like Ridley & Aiyuk, but somebody should start a Diontae Johnson thread. There's lots of nextgen stats and situational reasons why he's ridiculously overvalued.

Over or Under - valued??  I don't like him at his 5th rd ADP at all and likely won't have him anywhere.... Pickens on the other hand 2 rounds later.... 

Other than positive TD regression, what gives ??  

[GobbleDog 816]

5 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Over or Under - valued??  I don't like him at his 5th rd ADP at all and likely won't have him anywhere.... Pickens on the other hand 2 rounds later.... 

Other than positive TD regression, what gives ??  

Another volunteer!

[weepaws 2,460]

D Johnson ADP looks like 7th rd, I think that might be a slightly low, I have him in the 8th 14 teams. 

[GobbleDog 816]

21 minutes ago, weepaws said:

D Johnson ADP looks like 7th rd, I think that might be a slightly low, I have him in the 8th 14 teams. 

Espn Wr 23 - early 5th

Yahoo Wr 24

FFToday Wr 27

FantasyPros Wr 33 - mid 7th

Didn't know there was so much discrepancy.  Usually drafted late-4th to 6th round in my 12-tm mocks.

[weepaws 2,460]

Looking at Yahoo in .5 ppr he’s #91.  8th rd. 

RTSports .5 ppr he’s #79. 7th rd.  Espn doesn’t have any .5 ppr, so I don’t bother with them.  

Thanks.   

[GobbleDog 816]

4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Looking at Yahoo in .5 ppr he’s #91.  8th rd. 

RTSports .5 ppr he’s #79. 7th rd.  Espn doesn’t have any .5 ppr, so I don’t bother with them.  

Thanks.   

I see the problem - I only look at ppr. 

Ok, if Johnson is going 8th round, then my "over-rated" arguments aren't as strong.  I still wouldn't draft him there, but it's the 8th round so who cares.

[Gepetto 988]

Dionte Johnson will be on my team. He's one of the players I'm targeting. Auction league ppr and I don't think he'll go for more than I'm willing to spend. I targeted him last year though and he went for more than I was willing to spend; worked out as I got Tyreek Hill at a good price.

[wolves111 69]

On 8/17/2023 at 1:19 PM, DaBeerz said:

I actually really hate the #1 overall spot, too damn long to wait between picks for my liking but #1 overall ain't clear cut at all this year. Depends on league/scoring of course. I'd probably play safe and take Ekeler over CMC but that's me. 

 

I agree. I have the #1 pick in one of my redraft leagues. PPR, 6 pts for all tds. Thinking about trading it for the 4th or 6th pick. Would rather have 4 and 17 or 6 and 15 than 1 and 20, 21.

[DaBeerz 88]

2 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

I agree. I have the #1 pick in one of my redraft leagues. PPR, 6 pts for all tds. Thinking about trading it for the 4th or 6th pick. Would rather have 4 and 17 or 6 and 15 than 1 and 20, 21.

I think i fare better with mid-round picks than early/late almost every time I've drafted. 4-7 spot is typically just fine by me. You can adjust to runs on position players and typically your starter spots don't get snatched as often.