Derrick Henry

[gcmmidwest 99]

Anybody think he comes out banging in Baltimore or is he on a downward spiral...which tends to happen when rb's hit 30

[polecatt 405]

It will be interesting to see. I think he will be pretty good this season but probably not his peak level.

Lamar Jackson is sure to take away some numbers.

[weepaws 2,516]

He’s going to fall into the end zone at least a dozen times.  He’s not what he once was, But he’s on a team that will help him with positive production.  I’m ranking him inside my top ten 14 team non ppr.  Thanks. 

[IGotWorms 3,431]

He’s still been pretty darn good the last few years. Not quite like the peak of his heyday but also not in precipitous decline.

I like him if you don’t have to pay a premium. RB15 or so sounds good for most leagues 

[weepaws 2,516]

21 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

He’s still been pretty darn good the last few years. Not quite like the peak of his heyday but also not in precipitous decline.

I like him if you don’t have to pay a premium. RB15 or so sounds good for most leagues 

I don’t know why you would knock him down from last season, why? 

He was #7 non ppr on a horrible team, now he’s on a much more explosive offense, he’s going to be a top ten rb easy.  

But I'm still wondering why you seem being lower than he was last season.  Thanks. 

[IGotWorms 3,431]

49 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I don’t know why you would knock him down from last season, why? 

He was #7 non ppr on a horrible team, now he’s on a much more explosive offense, he’s going to be a top ten rb easy.  

But I'm still wondering why you seem being lower than he was last season.  Thanks. 

He’s a year older but also I was talking more PPR or .5ppr

[weepaws 2,516]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

He’s a year older but also I was talking more PPR or .5ppr

He was #10 ppr, #8 half ppr.  Now he’s going to a much better offense.    Thanks. 

[IGotWorms 3,431]

17 minutes ago, weepaws said:

He was #10 ppr, #8 half ppr.  Now he’s going to a much better offense.    Thanks. 

Yeah but he’s got a QB that may snake some yards and especially TDs and he’s a year older. Thanks

[weepaws 2,516]

41 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Yeah but he’s got a QB that may snake some yards and especially TDs and he’s a year older. Thanks

Edwards had 13 rushing tds with the same snake.  Henry will at least match last season numbers.  1100 plus rush yards, 12 plus rushing tds, 25 plus rec.  He’s a top ten rb.   

Anyway just wondering your thoughts, you answered them.  Thanks. 

[Ray_T 603]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

He was #10 ppr, #8 half ppr.  Now he’s going to a much better offense.    Thanks. 

I agree.  he is in a far better offense.

and a better team.

but he is a year older.   but the two will roughly offset each other.

I think he does about what he did last year.  maybe slightly better because the caliber of the team is that much higher than the one he departed from. 

I do think this is likely the last or second last year for Henry as a premium back but I do think hes draftable.   just dont overpay.   when RB's are at his age you do not overpay.

[weepaws 2,516]

I think Henry knows he’s near the end , And so do the Ravens, Great placement for both parties, going out with a Super Bowl.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,202]

Baltimore's offense is substantially more efficient and productive than Tennessee's, so I can see Henry getting about 60 to 70 yards rushing a game, with at least (yes, at least), 1 rushing TD a game.  I think there's a legit shot that he has about 1100 yards (1200 ceiling), but well over 20 TD's (yup... like 24).  I think they get into the green zone a lot and use Henry a lot, to keep Jackson from doing it.  I think the addition of Henry hurts Jackson a touch.  Jackson, per 17 games played, averages just over 1,000 yards rushing and 6 TD's.  I think with Henry, that drops to about 600 and 3.

[TBayXXXVII 2,202]

9 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Yeah but he’s got a QB that may snake some yards and especially TDs and he’s a year older. Thanks

I think the opposite happens.  I think they added Henry to not just replace Gus Edwards, but a slight uptick in production.  Edwards can't handle the workload and get the production that Henry can.  Edwards is best at 10 carries per game, Henry can get 15.  Plus, they still have Justice Hill and I think they still bring in someone else to tally a handful of touches a game.  I think the addition of Henry is to reduce the rushing workload of Jackson.

[Showboat 146]

It all makes sense to project that Henry should have a good season and score a lot of TDs, but the cliff usually comes up abruptly for 30+ year old RBs.  I'm really torn of on if he will have a season pushing 20 TDs or just be ineffective or spend most of his time in the training room.

[TBayXXXVII 2,202]

44 minutes ago, Showboat said:

It all makes sense to project that Henry should have a good season and score a lot of TDs, but the cliff usually comes up abruptly for 30+ year old RBs.  I'm really torn of on if he will have a season pushing 20 TDs or just be ineffective or spend most of his time in the training room.

I don't disagree really.  Henry is a different kind of player and going from a crap team to a Super Bowl contender and that usually can invigorate a player.  I think that even though he'll be 30, he still averaged over 4 ypc and still rushed for over 1100 yards and 12 td's on a team where he was the only weapon.  Also, it was the least amount of touches he had in the last 4 seasons where he played a full season.  He averaged 16.5 carries per game last year.  Even if he drops to 12, I think with that team and OLine, he could average over 4.5 ypc.  I think 13.5 for 4.7 is reasonable.  The lighter workload will still yield him similar production and fresher legs.  I think they all but eliminate his usage in the passing game for that reason.  I don't think he gets many breakaway TD's, like he's done in the past, but I think he could quite literally have a dozen td runs of 5 yards and less.

Now, in 2025?  That may be a completely different story... but this year, if people are allowing him to fall, I have no problems in taking him.

 

[gridiron whirlwinds 2]

IMO Henry is gold in Baltimore

[weepaws 2,516]

Ravens bought Henry for this season only, This is there run for the title.  Henry isn’t going to be what he once was, but he’ll be a top ten rb for this season.  I think he has one more 1000 plus and a bunch of tds.  He’s a steal in the second.  In my non ppr 14 team I would gladly make him my first rb if the others studs are taking before my pick.  

[IGotWorms 3,431]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the opposite happens.  I think they added Henry to not just replace Gus Edwards, but a slight uptick in production.  Edwards can't handle the workload and get the production that Henry can.  Edwards is best at 10 carries per game, Henry can get 15.  Plus, they still have Justice Hill and I think they still bring in someone else to tally a handful of touches a game.  I think the addition of Henry is to reduce the rushing workload of Jackson.

I’m sure that’s the idea in theory, but when you’re four yards out and Jackson is basically guaranteed to score on an option run vs having Henry jam it up the middle for one yard or no gain… it’s still gonna be Jackson.

Don’t get me wrong, like Henry as a pick especially in non PPR leagues, but when the rubber meets the road Jackson is still getting his 

[TBayXXXVII 2,202]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’m sure that’s the idea in theory, but when you’re four yards out and Jackson is basically guaranteed to score on an option run vs having Henry jam it up the middle for one yard or no gain… it’s still gonna be Jackson.

Don’t get me wrong, like Henry as a pick especially in non PPR leagues, but when the rubber meets the road Jackson is still getting his 

I do think that's possible, and likely at some point... but I think the hand off to Henry is 'Plan A' and possibly 'Plan B', and the contingency plan will be to go with Jackson.

With Jackson's new deal, I think preserving him is Baltimore's main objective.  I think that's why they brought Henry in.  I think they call more run plays (hand offs), to limit Jackson's adlibbing to the run and at the goal line is where I think a lot of that will take place.

Last year Jackson had only 1 rushing TD from inside 7 yards and 1 the year before.  I think that remains the plan in place.

[Ray_T 603]

5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

but I think he could quite literally have a dozen td runs of 5 yards and less.

yeah, I think the value in Henry goes up in terms of TD.    likely declines elsewhere.

but TD's are where the fantasy points are.

[TBayXXXVII 2,202]

26 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah, I think the value in Henry goes up in terms of TD.    likely declines elsewhere.

but TD's are where the fantasy points are.

Yup.

[kilroy69 1,026]

I am betting heavy on him this  year. I think he could put up 18-20 tds. Once they are near the goal line they are going to use him like a battering ram. Why risk Jackson when you have a fuckingg giant in the backfield who no one is bringing down with that line from within the 5. The ravens had 35 rushes from within the 5 yard line last year. All but 7 were handled by the rbs. Stretch it out to within the 10 and you have 60 carries up for grabs  for him between rbs and the qbs. You give him 60 carries within the 10 and he is going to crush it 

[Ray_T 603]

On 4/28/2024 at 2:45 PM, weepaws said:

He’s going to fall into the end zone at least a dozen times.  He’s not what he once was, But he’s on a team that will help him with positive production.  I’m ranking him inside my top ten 14 team non ppr.  Thanks. 

this.

he will still get a lot of TD's and that will make up for any loss in production in yards on his part

hes also running behind a far better line than he ran behind last season so its not a given his production will decline.   he is more of a power back so if hes a bit slower than last year I dont see that hurting his production in a huge way.   but I do think as the year wears on his numbers will start to fade a bit late in the season.

for the record, this is the last year he will be draftable in my opinion.    and I'd draft him as my RB2.

 

[Gepetto 1,007]

Gus Edwards had 13 touchdowns THIRTEEN!  I think D. Henry is going to get in the endzone a lot this year.

[Ray_T 603]

6 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Gus Edwards had 13 touchdowns THIRTEEN!  I think D. Henry is going to get in the endzone a lot this year.

certainly possible.

honestly the bigger risk is injury (as it often is with backs this age)

I do think if he stays healthy he produces well enough in this offense.

[weepaws 2,516]

He’s going to be a rb1.  And should be drafted as a rb1.  Right now is ADP is a second rd pick, that won’t last long. 

[Ray_T 603]

12 hours ago, weepaws said:

He’s going to be a rb1.  And should be drafted as a rb1.  Right now is ADP is a second rd pick, that won’t last long. 

it might last.   There is an awful lot of bias against RB's once they get close to the age of 30.   Granted that bias exists for good reason.   and the wheels have been known to fall off anywhere between the age of 29 and 31 with 30 being the most usual place where it happens.

for that reason, I dont take him in the first round.   but if he falls to me in round 2 I'd probably take him.

[weepaws 2,516]

In a 14 team non ppr he’s going to be a first rd pick.   This is going to be Henry’s last big chance season imo.  He’s on a super bowl contender.  

[Ray_T 603]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

In a 14 team non ppr he’s going to be a first rd pick.   This is going to be Henry’s last big chance season imo.  He’s on a super bowl contender.  

ok I'm talking 10 to 12 team leagues.   Most people dont play 14 teamers.

even so, hes on the cusp.    probably a 2nd round pick today but his ADP may rise.    it probably will if he has a good camp.

for me it would depend on who is available.  at that point in the draft there are often at least one or two players who I felt should have gone earlier who are still on the board.   so depending on your draft format you may or may not take Henry at that point.

personally I cant ignore the age thing.  I did it once with LT back in the day and regretted it a bit.   and I was quite sure he had one more year left in him.  turns out I was right as he had a resurgence in his age 31 season.    but thats another story.

bottom line, the risk of the pick going down the toilet is higher than youd like when you are dealing with a 30 year old RB.   I'd take him with a 2nd round pick.  but I wouldnt do a first.   dont get me wrong, I dont blame you for taking him late in round 1.   I just wouldnt do it myself.    and I love Henry as a player.   Nothing used to make me happier than watching one of his patented goal line runs where hed stiff arm someone and then carry 2 or 3 guys trying to tackle him across the goalline with the ball and score a TD.

but when the wheels fall off a RB at this age it tends to happen quickly.

while I agree he probably has one more year in him.  I'm not willing to gamble a first rounder on that.

[weepaws 2,516]

I’m thinking about a comparison to R Mostert , Who was 31 last season, and finished rb2 in total points in non ppr .  Only McCaffrey someone had more.  

[Maximum Overkill 809]

12 hours ago, weepaws said:

In a 14 team non ppr he’s going to be a first rd pick.   This is going to be Henry’s last big chance season imo.  He’s on a super bowl contender.  

For Superflex, he's a strong buy if you're a contender and a must sell if you're not. 

And you're right. We've seen how fast the wheels fall off of bigger older running backs, it's literally overnight. 

[LaChup 158]

I think Butker's jersey outsells all other jersey's this season. Let me know if this needs to be in another forum because free speech hurts your feelings.

[Maximum Overkill 809]

1 hour ago, LaChup said:

I think Butker's jersey outsells all other jersey's this season. Let me know if this needs to be in another forum because free speech hurts your feelings.

It will certainly be a big seller but I'd be shocked if it even outsold Mahomes jerseys locally. 

Non Chief fans aren't spending that type of money on another teams jersey. It would be great to see though. 

[IGotWorms 3,431]

7 hours ago, LaChup said:

I think Butker's jersey outsells all other jersey's this season. Let me know if this needs to be in another forum because free speech hurts your feelings.

That’s fine, it’s useful for the bigots to identify themselves. Kinda like with the white nationalist flags

[LaChup 158]

You should buy that Lions "0" jersey, because they ain't no one like you.

 

When Bill Maher says he doesn't understand what the crime is about Butker, you know the true libtards are fishing for a story.

"I can't express how much this guy is not like me," Maher said during a panel discussion Friday. "He's religious. He loves marriage. He loves kids… And he's now history's greatest monster."

"Again, I don't agree with much with this guy, but I don't get the thing. He said… ‘Some of you may go on to lead successful careers in the world.' Ok, that seems fairly, like, modern. ‘But I would venture to guess that the majority of you are most excited about your marriage and the children you will bring into this world.’ I don't see what the big crime is. I really don't." 

 

[LaChup 158]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

That’s fine, it’s useful for the bigots to identify themselves. Kinda like with the white nationalist flags

Does your red jersey have a hammer and sickle on it? If not, you should order one with a "0" on it.

[Super Cubs 133]

He was a product of the system . Look at his early years he was  just ok.  Once he picked up the system that's when he took off.  

[weepaws 2,516]

He’s going to produce as a rb1 n his current system. 

[Maximum Overkill 809]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

He’s going to produce as a rb1 n his current system. 

I think he will as well but unfortunately he's going to hit the wall soon. There's a lot of carries on his body, hopefully not this season for Henry owners. 

[weepaws 2,516]

In keeper leagues one should trade him now, in a redraft league, I’m going to seek Henry out in the first rd.  His ADP will be first rd in August.