Are human drivers as an occupation going to go extinct?

[nobody 2,294]

If I knew someone who drives for a living and isn't retiring in the next 10 years, I'd encourage them to learn a new skill.  

In LA, I'm starting to see more and more self-driving commercial vehicles.  As they accumulate miles with less and less incidents, I think the human element is going to be removed.

[HellToupee 1,050]

I think it was Yang who said by 2030 all OTR drivers  would be self driving. Problem is in 10 years a lot of different jobs are going away

[HellToupee 1,050]

11 minutes ago, nobody said:

In LA, I'm starting to see more and more self-driving commercial vehicles

That’s interesting. I haven’t seen any in my travels up and down the East coast 

[nobody 2,294]

35 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

That’s interesting. I haven’t seen any in my travels up and down the East coast 

They're piloting in Phoenix, LA, and SF from what I understand.

[nobody 2,294]

You can order a waymo out here and it's maybe 30% cheaper than Uber.

[thegeneral 2,118]

When one of them mows down a bunch of pedestrians will probably slow the roll out but yeah it’s coming. Rode in a Waymo one in SF this summer and drove as well as any human. 

Maybe a large chunk of driving like this done by Bots in say a decade seems reasonable. Perhaps some trucking too. 

[HellToupee 1,050]

50 minutes ago, nobody said:

You can order a waymo out here and it's maybe 30% cheaper than Uber.

I’m surprised it’s discounted and they do t try to capture the extra profit. 
Im ready for full self driving 

[nobody 2,294]

Going the way of newspaper journalism once the avalanche gets going.

Rusty, what did the journalists do?  Insurance and what else?

[jerryskids 5,797]

1 minute ago, nobody said:

Going the way of newspaper journalism once the avalanche gets going.

Rusty, what did the journalists do?  Insurance and what else?

Cat fostering? 

 

[jerryskids 5,797]

For things like ride sharing/human transportation... yeah, the writing is on the wall.  Deliveries have that pesky "last mile" problem of getting the package from the road to your door, but I expect that it is solvable, it'll just take a while longer.

[Mookz 1,301]

8 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

For things like ride sharing/human transportation... yeah, the writing is on the wall.  Deliveries have that pesky "last mile" problem of getting the package from the road to your door, but I expect that it is solvable, it'll just take a while longer.

Well fock, my driveway ain't nearly that long. 

[nobody 2,294]

2 minutes ago, Mookz said:

Well fock, my driveway ain't nearly that long. 

You need that Geek Club driveway!  

[jerryskids 5,797]

1 minute ago, Mookz said:

Well fock, my driveway ain't nearly that long. 

I see what you did there.   

The "last mile" is something I've dealt with in my work life when the discussion of fiber-optic home internet began 30+ years ago.  Getting fiber to a distribution point near your home was relatively straightforward; getting it that final amount TO your house was a major PITA. 

I think the analogy generally rings true for this situation.  The vehicle can get to your house but... what to do with the package?

Ima think Amazon has some smart people working on this.

[jerryskids 5,797]

Also, the shape of my lot leads to a lot of driveway room.  The previous owners did a remodel where they extended the house, and with it the garage.  Without the extra rooms/space from that remodel, we wouldn't have bought it.  But the garage is sadly short in depth -- a lot more feet could have been added, and the per square foot price for garage space would IMO have been minimal.  As it is, I can't fit any truck other than a Maverick-class in it. 

[cmh6476 846]

i don't know but I like your avatar 

[squistion 1,397]

Since rickshaw drivers still exist in some parts of the world, I would say that no, human drivers as an occupation probably won't go extinct. 

[frank 2,215]

Who made who?

[nobody 2,294]

8 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

i don't know but I like your avatar 

I like yours too.  By the way, hit me up with Deneric Prince vs CEH love on the mainboard.

[frank 2,215]

6 minutes ago, squistion said:

Since rickshaw drivers still exist in some parts of the world, I would say that no, human drivers as an occupation probably won't go extinct. 

Potato salad! 

[squistion 1,397]

Just now, frank said:

Potato salad! 

German or French? 

[frank 2,215]

2 minutes ago, squistion said:

German or French? 

The government!

 

[IGotWorms 3,792]

Yes there will be a tipping point where human drivers may be essentially disallowed. If automated drivers are much safer on the whole then companies won’t be able to employ human drivers (too much liability) and insurers won’t insure them. It may be that you can’t even drive in your own personal life, though I expect we’ll at least initially see laws put in place to protect that. 

[posty 2,412]

Nope

[Engorgeous George 1,600]

1 hour ago, jerryskids said:

I see what you did there.   

The "last mile" is something I've dealt with in my work life when the discussion of fiber-optic home internet began 30+ years ago.  Getting fiber to a distribution point near your home was relatively straightforward; getting it that final amount TO your house was a major PITA. 

I think the analogy generally rings true for this situation.  The vehicle can get to your house but... what to do with the package?

Ima think Amazon has some smart people working on this.

Well trained monkeys which have had their full spectrum of rabies shots.

[seafoam1 2,358]

1 hour ago, jerryskids said:

I see what you did there.   

The "last mile" is something I've dealt with in my work life when the discussion of fiber-optic home internet began 30+ years ago.  Getting fiber to a distribution point near your home was relatively straightforward; getting it that final amount TO your house was a major PITA. 

I think the analogy generally rings true for this situation.  The vehicle can get to your house but... what to do with the package?

Ima think Amazon has some smart people working on this.

No chance. Same for USPS. 

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

13 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Yes there will be a tipping point where human drivers may be essentially disallowed. If automated drivers are much safer on the whole then companies won’t be able to employ human drivers (too much liability) and insurers won’t insure them. It may be that you can’t even drive in your own personal life, though I expect we’ll at least initially see laws put in place to protect that. 

 

I agree, but that is a long way in the future. You have to get to the point where automated driving vehicles are the majority of vehicles and then wait 20 years for all of the regular driving cars to wear out and be replaced.

What you are forecasting is at least 30 years out it sounds like.

[IGotWorms 3,792]

28 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

I agree, but that is a long way in the future. You have to get to the point where automated driving vehicles are the majority of vehicles and then wait 20 years for all of the regular driving cars to wear out and be replaced.

What you are forecasting is at least 30 years out it sounds like.

Agreed. More of an issue for our kids and especially grandkids. They should probably be taking the keys away from us before we have to worry about it