Thoughts of Justin Jefferson this year

[jtztdm 2]

I know most analysts have hill and lamb ranked one and two projected wrs. Would anyone put Jefferson over either one of them?  

 

Is there another wr in your opinion that is better then Jefferson and should be ranked ahead of him. 

 

[weepaws 3,157]

I have in my 6-10 tier, based on Qb situation, Guy is a stud, probably the best wr in the nfl, and should still have a high volume.  

[kilroy69 1,216]

There is zero chance he outperforms hill or lamb outside of one of them getting hurt. If he were playing with Tua or Dak he would be in the mix for  number one wr. With his QB situation I would take Hill, Lamb, Chase, Brown, and Saint-Brown over him. He has the skills to be the number one. He just can not throw the ball to himself. 

[wolves111 104]

1 hour ago, kilroy69 said:

There is zero chance he outperforms hill or lamb outside of one of them getting hurt. If he were playing with Tua or Dak he would be in the mix for  number one wr. With his QB situation I would take Hill, Lamb, Chase, Brown, and Saint-Brown over him. He has the skills to be the number one. He just can not throw the ball to himself. 

Agree with everyone but A.J. Brown. As a Philly resident I have watched Hurts regress. The offense struggled the second half of last year and it's unknown if things have been corrected. Hurts still feels the rush and takes off to the right. He'll either run the ball or chuck it out of bounds. The suspicion in Philly is that defenses have figured him out (blitz up the middle), he still has difficulty reading a defense and has poisoned his relationship with the head coach. And his lifelong friend got fired who was his offensive coordinator.

Long winded way of saying I'd still take JJ over him.

[JagFan 149]

The QB situation in Minny concerns me as well.  In addition to Hill and Lamb, I’d also put Chase ahead of him.  I’m a bit surprised that more folks don’t have Chase higher.  Finally, if Discount Double Douche is healthy I’d put Wilson ahead of JJ.  Buyer be ware with anything Minny this year IMO.

[GobbleDog 984]

2 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

There is zero chance he outperforms hill or lamb outside of one of them getting hurt. If he were playing with Tua or Dak he would be in the mix for  number one wr. With his QB situation I would take Hill, Lamb, Chase, Brown, and Saint-Brown over him. He has the skills to be the number one. He just can not throw the ball to himself. 

I rank JJ lower because of the unknown Qb play and last year's hammy issue. But c'mon... "zero chance?" Might be overstating it. Projected to 170 targets over a full season last year which includes games he got hurt and lightly used upon return. Had 184 targets the year prior.  We know he's going to get volume regardless of who's qb. Probably 180+ targets.

His final four games last year - with Nick Mullens at qb, JJ was 3rd in points per game. So whether it's Darnold or McCarthy, he certainly has a chance to finish higher than Hill and Lamb. He's the most talented Wr in the league and gets sick volume. Nobody would be surprised if JJ finished #1.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

I said this in another thread, that I don't think Jefferson gets 10+ targets a game.  The QB situation is the main reason, plus they have other competent weapons like Addison, Tonyan (Hock, when he's healthy), and added Aaron Jones.  It's no so much that they're great options, it's that Darnold isn't going to complete 20 passes per game, where Jefferson gets like 7 and the others get 13.  I'm pretty sure Darnold is in place only until they feel McCarthy is ready.  This isn't a team who's going to throw 35+ times a game and complete 25+ passes, nor score a lot of TD's.

For his career as a starter (65 starts), Darnold's average game (approximates), is 19-31 (60%), for 210 yards, with 1 TD and 1 Int.  In order for Jefferson to be a top half WR1 (top 6), he'd need to score about 18 fantasy points per week.  Darnold generates 44 points for his pass catcher, meaning Jefferson would need to account for about 41% of what Darnold produces.  For reference, Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 20.7 fpg last year and he accounted for 35.6% of what Goff produced (58 points).  Let's look back to Jefferson's 2022 (128/1809/8), season where he averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game.  Vikings QB's accounted for, get this, 58 points per game, just like Goff last year (just so we're clear, Goff threw 605 of the teams 606 passes last year).  So, St. Brown last year was pretty much Jefferson 2022.  If Jefferson gets 36% (which is 2% better than 2022), of the points that Darnold generates, that's 15.84 fantasy points per game... 13 WR's did better than that last year (12 if you don't count Mike Williams who only played 3 games).

All that to show, Darnold isn't good enough to make Jefferson a fantasy WR1.

How long until McCarthy plays?  I don't know.  Will he be better?  I don't know... my guess though is, doesn't he have to be?  Me, I'd say that Jefferson's talent is good enough to keep him in the WR1 tier, but I wouldn't take him.  He's on my DND list.  He'll go in the first round and I'm not spending that on a guy who's QB doesn't even have the ability to make him a WR1.

 

In 17 games with Sam Darnold as a starter, DJ Moore averaged 8.35 targets, 4.94 receptions, 69.35 yards, and 0.41 td's per game, good for 14.35 fpg.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

I too said this in another thread....

JJ got at least 10 targets per game with Nick Mullens at QB...

"10, 10, 10, 14.  

Jefferson's targets post injury comeback with Nick Mullens as QB.  

KOC is still the head coach.   This is still the Cooper Kupp X role in a Shannahan / McVay offense.  They move him all over the field.  They just paid him over $100 mill guaranteed.  

Why would "their inclination" be "not to throw him the ball 10 plus times a game" ??  

 

Sammy boy will be directed by KOC to feed him the rock.... the offense funnels through Jefferson.  Completely fine having JJ as my WR1 and pairing him with a Deebo or DK in rd 3.  

Definitely not ahead of Cedee / Tyreek though.  Overall WR5/6 is realistic expectation.  
 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

2 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

I too said this in another thread....

JJ got at least 10 targets per game with Nick Mullens at QB...

"10, 10, 10, 14.  

Jefferson's targets post injury comeback with Nick Mullens as QB.  

KOC is still the head coach.   This is still the Cooper Kupp X role in a Shannahan / McVay offense.  They move him all over the field.  They just paid him over $100 mill guaranteed.  

Why would "their inclination" be "not to throw him the ball 10 plus times a game" ??  

 

Sammy boy will be directed by KOC to feed him the rock.... the offense funnels through Jefferson.  Completely fine having JJ as my WR1 and pairing him with a Deebo or DK in rd 3.  

Definitely not ahead of Cedee / Tyreek though.  Overall WR5/6 is realistic expectation.  
 

 

Sam Darnold isn't as good as Nick Mullens.  Their inclination is that Darnold isn't good enough to throw it to him 10 times a game.  This is a fact you apparently CHOOSE to over look.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Sam Darnold isn't as good as Nick Mullens.  Their inclination is that Darnold isn't good enough to throw it to him 10 times a game.  This is a fact you apparently CHOOSE to over look.

OK.... you must have KOC on speed dial then.....  how do you "know" what their inclination is ??  Seriously, where did you get this information ??  I'm not looking over anything coming out of Vikings camp, only questioning how YOU "know" what their inclination is....  

OR are you basing this off YOUR evaluation of Sam Darnold's history in the league ?  Where is your evaluation of Darnold within a McVay / KOC style offense ?   You literally are using statistical analysis of a moot QB situation to project future outcomes.  

Lots can happen in an NFL season, too many variables to hang one (Darnold) on the outcome of a player (Jefferson).  Baring injury, I would be STUNNED if he doesn't finish as a Top 12 WR.  Personally, I would be more worried about his hammy this season as the main reason he doesn't make a WR1 finish than ANY other variable.  

[GobbleDog 984]

41 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

YOUR evaluation of Sam Darnold's history in the league ?

"Ah Darnold sucks"... everyone's first reaction. But if ya look at his situation, might cut him some slack. Entered league as the youngest Qb to ever start - for the lowly Jets no less. His coach the next two years - Adam Gase, among the worst head coaches of all time. The Jets supporting cast was terrible. Goes to Carolina which is of course another cluster. In '22 Darnold starts the final 6 games - under the interim coach. His last game was a disaster throwing two picks early and gets benched. But the prior five... 7 Td / 3 Int 1,100 yds. Topped 103 passer rating in 4 of the 5 with a high of 121.4.  Last year he barely saw the field as back-up in San Fran.

Darnold has been to hell and back. Now finds himself in the best situation of his career with a great supporting cast and stable coaching regime. Don't expect him to be a pro-bowler, but I bet he's a lot better than many expect. Unfortunately, the Vikings have a brutal schedule to start the season. Be interesting if he hangs on to the job after their Week 6 bye.

[JagFan 149]

1 hour ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

OK.... you must have KOC on speed dial then.....  how do you "know" what their inclination is ??  Seriously, where did you get this information ??  I'm not looking over anything coming out of Vikings camp, only questioning how YOU "know" what their inclination is....  

OR are you basing this off YOUR evaluation of Sam Darnold's history in the league ?  Where is your evaluation of Darnold within a McVay / KOC style offense ?   You literally are using statistical analysis of a moot QB situation to project future outcomes.  

Lots can happen in an NFL season, too many variables to hang one (Darnold) on the outcome of a player (Jefferson).  Baring injury, I would be STUNNED if he doesn't finish as a Top 12 WR.  Personally, I would be more worried about his hammy this season as the main reason he doesn't make a WR1 finish than ANY other variable.  

59.7 is Darnold’s career completion average.

65.7 is the NFL league average.

This spells out stalled drives, and uncatchable balls.  Even if they do target JJ 10+times that equates to no good enough for the draft capitol it will take to get him.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

1 hour ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

OK.... you must have KOC on speed dial then.....  how do you "know" what their inclination is ??  Seriously, where did you get this information ??  I'm not looking over anything coming out of Vikings camp, only questioning how YOU "know" what their inclination is....  

OR are you basing this off YOUR evaluation of Sam Darnold's history in the league ?  Where is your evaluation of Darnold within a McVay / KOC style offense ?   You literally are using statistical analysis of a moot QB situation to project future outcomes.  

Lots can happen in an NFL season, too many variables to hang one (Darnold) on the outcome of a player (Jefferson).  Baring injury, I would be STUNNED if he doesn't finish as a Top 12 WR.  Personally, I would be more worried about his hammy this season as the main reason he doesn't make a WR1 finish than ANY other variable.  

 

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

"Ah Darnold sucks"... everyone's first reaction. But if ya look at his situation, might cut him some slack. Entered league as the youngest Qb to ever start - for the lowly Jets no less. His coach the next two years - Adam Gase, among the worst head coaches of all time. The Jets supporting cast was terrible. Goes to Carolina which is of course another cluster. In '22 Darnold starts the final 6 games - under the interim coach. His last game was a disaster throwing two picks early and gets benched. But the prior five... 7 Td / 3 Int 1,100 yds. Topped 103 passer rating in 4 of the 5 with a high of 121.4.  Last year he barely saw the field as back-up in San Fran.

Darnold has been to hell and back. Now finds himself in the best situation of his career with a great supporting cast and stable coaching regime. Don't expect him to be a pro-bowler, but I bet he's a lot better than many expect. Unfortunately, the Vikings have a brutal schedule to start the season. Be interesting if he hangs on to the job after their Week 6 bye.

Hey, if you guys want to pretend that Darnold doesn't stink... his contract and situation should lead you to believe that the Vikings think that too (he has a 1 year deal worth $10M and they spent the #10 pick overall on his replacement), then go right ahead.  I think Jefferson is an elite talent that should lead people to believe that he'll put up WR1 numbers, and he might.  I'm not banking on it.  I'm not putting any faith in Darnold.  McCarthy?  Maybe.  I'm not out on him, I just don't know enough about him.  If he ends up being the starter Day 1, I'm more likely to buy Jefferson in the first round than if it's Darnold.  And yes, he does stink.  He's proved it over and over and over and over again.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

4 minutes ago, JagFan said:

59.7 is Darnold’s career completion average.

65.7 is the NFL league average.

This spells out stalled drives, and uncatchable balls.  Even if they do target JJ 10+times that equates to no good enough for the draft capitol it will take to get him.

 

No issue here.... "draft capital" as in taking him with a top 5 pick is NOT what I am advocating.  My issue is the method of evaluation some here are using to say the guy "won't finish top 12 in WR scoring".  

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

3 minutes ago, JagFan said:

59.7 is Darnold’s career completion average.

65.7 is the NFL league average.

This spells out stalled drives, and uncatchable balls.  Even if they do target JJ 10+times that equates to no good enough for the draft capitol it will take to get him.

 

Your stats don't matter, only his feeling do.  Also, Sean McVay and O'Connell are great, they can make him better (even though Goff is better in Detroit than in LA), shhhhh.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

Per "draft capital".... JJ as #5 overall is overvalued.  

I'm taking Bijan and Breece over him in the 3-6th draft slot.... later/equal than that I'm taking Jamar, ASB and possible Garrett Wilson over JJ.  

So basically Jefferson would need to fall to me in the 11/12th spot to be on one of my redraft teams.  

In my dynasty squad I'd be happy to see him finish the season anywhere in the top 15.  Anything past that will be a disappointment on some level.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

5 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

No issue here.... "draft capital" as in taking him with a top 5 pick is NOT what I am advocating.  My issue is the method of evaluation some here are using to say the guy "won't finish top 12 in WR scoring".  

Where did I say that Jefferson "won't finish top 12 in WR scoring".  See, the reason I ask is because I had to copy/paste your post because I didn't find it in mine?

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Where did I say that Jefferson "won't finish top 12 in WR scoring".  See, the reason I ask is because I had to copy/paste your post because I didn't find it in mine?

Strange, this was included in your breakdown above:

If Jefferson gets 36% (which is 2% better than 2022), of the points that Darnold generates, that's 15.84 fantasy points per game... 13 WR's did better than that last year (12 if you don't count Mike Williams who only played 3 games).

All that to show, Darnold isn't good enough to make Jefferson a fantasy WR1.

 

You literally say "Darnold isn't good enough to make Jefferson a fantasy WR1."

WR1 = Top 12 WR scoring in everyone's average 12 teamer.  

Peace.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

1 minute ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Per "draft capital".... JJ as #5 overall is overvalued.  

I'm taking Bijan and Breece over him in the 3-6th draft slot.... later/equal than that I'm taking Jamar, ASB and possible Garrett Wilson over JJ.  

So basically Jefferson would need to fall to me in the 11/12th spot to be on one of my redraft teams.  

In my dynasty squad I'd be happy to see him finish the season anywhere in the top 15.  Anything past that will be a disappointment on some level.

So let me get this straight, this is the second thread you've debated me on Jefferson and this post right here agrees with what I said in both threads.  In the other thread, I said (and I quote: "I think he's a top 7 guy, but unlikely to be top 3... a shot at top 5".  You think he's needs to fall to 11 or 12, for you to take him.  Right now, ADP shows that WR6 is going off the board at pick 9, meaning that if you took Jefferson at #11, he'd be WR7... which is exactly what I said.

In this thread, I said that Darnold isn't good enough to make him a WR1.  I don't think Darnold is the QB all season, do you?  I also said in my summation that Jefferson is too good for that.  I said I wouldn't take him in the 1st round.  Right now, ADP shows that WR7 is going at pick #13.  In most leagues, Pick #13 is not in the first round.  So, where do we differ?

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

5 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Strange, this was included in your breakdown above:

If Jefferson gets 36% (which is 2% better than 2022), of the points that Darnold generates, that's 15.84 fantasy points per game... 13 WR's did better than that last year (12 if you don't count Mike Williams who only played 3 games).

All that to show, Darnold isn't good enough to make Jefferson a fantasy WR1.

 

You literally say "Darnold isn't good enough to make Jefferson a fantasy WR1."

WR1 = Top 12 WR scoring in everyone's average 12 teamer.  

Peace.  

Looks to me like you're arguing just to argue.  Seems like we think the same about him.  See my above post.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Looks to me like you're arguing just to argue.  Seems like we think the same about him.  See my above post.

I'll say no more.... 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

Jefferson, to me, is last in terms of the tier I WRs AND RBs. I really hope I don’t have to take him. This year just screams stay away to me

[pooleman 0]

I haven't read all the responses yet but would agree Lamb, Hill and Chase probably deserve to be ahead, but with Darnold, there is a chance of inconsistency, and their defense will keep them  in games enough to where they may be forced to throw the ball more often helping to prop his #'s to #4 overall. 

[polecatt 474]

Year to year, his rankings may fluctuate a little among the top 5 or so.

Year in year out though, he's arguably the best asset there is in fantasy football. You could certainly say he's as good as any other asset.

I have him and Ceedee on my dynasty team. I would consider JJ my WR1 and top player on my team overall.

 

[listen2me 23 1,827]

20 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I said this in another thread, that I don't think Jefferson gets 10+ targets a game.  The QB situation is the main reason, plus they have other competent weapons like Addison, Tonyan (Hock, when he's healthy), and added Aaron Jones.  It's no so much that they're great options, it's that Darnold isn't going to complete 20 passes per game, where Jefferson gets like 7 and the others get 13.  I'm pretty sure Darnold is in place only until they feel McCarthy is ready.  This isn't a team who's going to throw 35+ times a game and complete 25+ passes, nor score a lot of TD's.

For his career as a starter (65 starts), Darnold's average game (approximates), is 19-31 (60%), for 210 yards, with 1 TD and 1 Int.  In order for Jefferson to be a top half WR1 (top 6), he'd need to score about 18 fantasy points per week.  Darnold generates 44 points for his pass catcher, meaning Jefferson would need to account for about 41% of what Darnold produces.  For reference, Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 20.7 fpg last year and he accounted for 35.6% of what Goff produced (58 points).  Let's look back to Jefferson's 2022 (128/1809/8), season where he averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game.  Vikings QB's accounted for, get this, 58 points per game, just like Goff last year (just so we're clear, Goff threw 605 of the teams 606 passes last year).  So, St. Brown last year was pretty much Jefferson 2022.  If Jefferson gets 36% (which is 2% better than 2022), of the points that Darnold generates, that's 15.84 fantasy points per game... 13 WR's did better than that last year (12 if you don't count Mike Williams who only played 3 games).

All that to show, Darnold isn't good enough to make Jefferson a fantasy WR1.

How long until McCarthy plays?  I don't know.  Will he be better?  I don't know... my guess though is, doesn't he have to be?  Me, I'd say that Jefferson's talent is good enough to keep him in the WR1 tier, but I wouldn't take him.  He's on my DND list.  He'll go in the first round and I'm not spending that on a guy who's QB doesn't even have the ability to make him a WR1.

 

In 17 games with Sam Darnold as a starter, DJ Moore averaged 8.35 targets, 4.94 receptions, 69.35 yards, and 0.41 td's per game, good for 14.35 fpg.

I agree with this.  I think Jefferson has a small window to hit in order to threaten top WR pts.  His ceiling and floor has to be lower than many of those at thr very top.  If he gets normal volume he could threaten it.  If things fall right.  But like you said, it would be a massive share of Darnolds stats.  Because there wont be as many as normal to go around.   We could see some 150 yard games out of Darnold.  And if JJ comes in thr same.  JJ may not even be quite ready but will get thrust in at some point to finish out the season.  That would be a total wildcard.  

Jefferson needs to find normal volume without Kirk Cousins.  Then find a massive chunk of the QB production. 

He would be a fine player to draft for consistency and just talent.  But hes going too high for me to consider.  

If the Vikings had more of a gunslinger stop gap QB he would have higher upside.  I see Minny as a 7 win team that isnt in these wild shootouts.  Sometimes you can get a lesser team with gun slinger QBs and bad defenses in these barn burners.  I dont quite see that for Minny.  Jones will be used.  If JJ comes in they will lean on Jones and check downs.