Sam Darnold is losing millions of dollars!

[Law 241]

He had made a lot this season towards his next contract, but, so far this game, it's all unraveling!

 

[jpcdds 26]

I was just telling some buddies he went from a 5 year 200M deal in 17 games to a 2 year 12M dollar deal the last 6 quarters. 

[Vikings4ever 538]

He is who we thought he was.

[Law 241]

Eventually, the stage couch was gonna turn back into a pumpkin.

[gcmmidwest 149]

Burns me up... Kept telling myself records don't lie ..after knowing in my heart the rams were the better team .... Blew a 3 team parlay on this ... Ball holding..,non scrambler , unpercise ball thrower of a bum qb

[cmh6476 1,009]

and made it a lot easier for the vikes to walk away and head into the JJ era

[JagFan 149]

You really can’t blame Darnold.  He’s the fourth 1st round QB the Jets have ruined in the 2000’s.  Let’s all be thankful they helped cry baby, look at me Rodgers flame out his career this year.

[Maximum Overkill 1,738]

Back to obscurity 

[gcmmidwest 149]

No excuse getting sacked 9 times 

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

He's the main reason I didn't take Justin Jefferson in my playoff fantasy league.  Figured they'd be a 1 and done and a bad one at that.

[nobody 2,555]

It was only a matter of time.  

[DocNiner 67]

Yeah, his last couple of games were like shades of the past when he was with the Jets and Panthers. Not a great start for his career on those two teams. Didn't play much at San Fran but I think he learned quite a bit about football and himself which helped him when he went to the Vikes. He played pretty darn good for most of the season and was.setting himself up for a nice payday next year. Now any yeam interested in him will probably think a little more serious about his worth. Having the weapons he's had in Minnesota certainly helped his game but after the last 2 games you gotta wonder is he regressing back to his old self when with the Jets and Panthers. I'm thinking the pressure to succeed the last 2 games has shaken his confidence. I hope not. He does have some talent but if the game is affecting him between the ears.I don't think his future will be all that good. We'll see but a lot of playing good at QB is mental and I wonder if he'll be able to get a grasp on it.

 

 

 

[Ray_T 739]

On 1/15/2025 at 9:44 AM, DocNiner said:

Yeah, his last couple of games were like shades of the past when he was with the Jets and Panthers. Not a great start for his career on those two teams. Didn't play much at San Fran but I think he learned quite a bit about football and himself which helped him when he went to the Vikes. He played pretty darn good for most of the season and was.setting himself up for a nice payday next year. Now any yeam interested in him will probably think a little more serious about his worth. Having the weapons he's had in Minnesota certainly helped his game but after the last 2 games you gotta wonder is he regressing back to his old self when with the Jets and Panthers. I'm thinking the pressure to succeed the last 2 games has shaken his confidence. I hope not. He does have some talent but if the game is affecting him between the ears.I don't think his future will be all that good. We'll see but a lot of playing good at QB is mental and I wonder if he'll be able to get a grasp on it.

 

 

 

well, you are also looking at a higher level of competition in those games. 

some of the blitzes the Rams did were an awfully creative way to blitz.    in one case it looked like it was coming from one direction and the guy backed into coverage, but darnold didnt see the corner come from the other side until it was too late.

the first thing I'll say is that less than half the defenses out there are capable of playing that style of defense.    but I think it still showed some of his limitiations.   Hes young enough to learn from this still.    the jump from regular season football to playoff football is almost as large as the jump from college to the NFL.    

He is definitely not getting the money he thought he would get, but I think he showed he can play in this league in the right situation.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

Darnold's 2024 season was better than Mayfield's 2023 season.  I'm not sure what people thought he was going to get 3 weeks ago, but my guess is that his deal will be about the same as Mayfield's, if not slightly better.  Of course, it's all about need and options.

I have no idea of what Vikings are even considering with the QB position.  They drafted McCarthy in the first round last year and I doubt their evaluation of him changed.  The only evaluation that probably changed, was of Darnold.  To that point, how much changed in the last 3 weeks though?  I have no idea.  I think there's a real possible chance that the Vikes tag Darnold to make sure they have someone in place to start the season as to not push their first round pick to rush back from injury.

If they re-sign him or someone else signs him, as I said above, I can see him getting a deal similar to Mayfield... 3 for $100M.  I think the wise move would be to re-sign him and structure the deal so that Darnold gets $30M in signing bonus with a $5M base in 2025.  I'd structure the deal to be $70M over 3 years where Y1 has a $5M base, Y2 with $30M, and Y3 with $35M.  Spread out the $30M bonus money over 3 years at $10M per.  That way, in 2025, Darnold's cap hit is $15M.  In 2026, it'll be $40M and $45M in 2027.  The reason for that is so that after the 2025 season, the Vikings can either release or trade Darnold and only have a $20M dead cap hit for 2026.  It guarantees them one more season with a QB that than ran it well in 2024 and a safety net in case there are any setbacks with McCarthy.

The added advantage to this type of deal is that it makes him reasonably easy to trade and get value.  If Darnold regresses back to what he was in NY and Carolina, then they can just release him with a small cap hit... but if he plays well, a team probably wouldn't be opposed with parting with a 2nd round pick for a decent QB who will only cost $30M one year and $35M the next with no long term handcuffs.  It also makes for an easy restructure if he plays well.

[weepaws 3,148]

Don’t see the Mayfield comparison, when Mayfield played with the Browns, he had 20 plus passing tds his first three nfl seasons.  

Darnold has been a bust.   Until this season, he played with two very good WRs.  

Darnold will end up getting a good pay day, The nfl tosses money around like they make their own.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

13 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Don’t see the Mayfield comparison, when Mayfield played with the Browns, he had 20 plus passing tds his first three nfl seasons.  

Darnold has been a bust.   Until this season, he played with two very good WRs.  

Darnold will end up getting a good pay day, The nfl tosses money around like they make their own.  

None of that matters.  In 2022 Mayfield, with his 20+ td season in 2020 only got a 1 year $8.5M deal.  Darnold's was actually slightly better at $10M.

In 2023, Mayfield barely broke 4k yards and had 28 TD's.  He also had a passer rating of 94.6 and QBR of 54.3... both of those were worse than 2020.  This season, Darnold threw for 300 more yards and 7 more TD's than Mayfield did and his passer rating and QBR were both higher. 

Darnold played with more inferior talent than Mayfield did when he was in Cleveland.  When they were both in Carolina, Darnold was better.

[weepaws 3,148]

Exactly, Darnold will get paid, nfl tosses money around like it has no meaning.  But you can’t sell me that Darnold is better , Mayfield has been better, and is better.   When were they both in Carolina? 

[Ray_T 739]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Darnold's 2024 season was better than Mayfield's 2023 season.  I'm not sure what people thought he was going to get 3 weeks ago, but my guess is that his deal will be about the same as Mayfield's, if not slightly better.  Of course, it's all about need and options.

I have no idea of what Vikings are even considering with the QB position.  They drafted McCarthy in the first round last year and I doubt their evaluation of him changed.  The only evaluation that probably changed, was of Darnold.  To that point, how much changed in the last 3 weeks though?  I have no idea.  I think there's a real possible chance that the Vikes tag Darnold to make sure they have someone in place to start the season as to not push their first round pick to rush back from injury.

If they re-sign him or someone else signs him, as I said above, I can see him getting a deal similar to Mayfield... 3 for $100M.  I think the wise move would be to re-sign him and structure the deal so that Darnold gets $30M in signing bonus with a $5M base in 2025.  I'd structure the deal to be $70M over 3 years where Y1 has a $5M base, Y2 with $30M, and Y3 with $35M.  Spread out the $30M bonus money over 3 years at $10M per.  That way, in 2025, Darnold's cap hit is $15M.  In 2026, it'll be $40M and $45M in 2027.  The reason for that is so that after the 2025 season, the Vikings can either release or trade Darnold and only have a $20M dead cap hit for 2026.  It guarantees them one more season with a QB that than ran it well in 2024 and a safety net in case there are any setbacks with McCarthy.

The added advantage to this type of deal is that it makes him reasonably easy to trade and get value.  If Darnold regresses back to what he was in NY and Carolina, then they can just release him with a small cap hit... but if he plays well, a team probably wouldn't be opposed with parting with a 2nd round pick for a decent QB who will only cost $30M one year and $35M the next with no long term handcuffs.  It also makes for an easy restructure if he plays well.

agreed.

and I think Minny likely re signs him

I seem to recall (someone correct me if I'm wrong as I am going from memory) that McCarthy wasnt particularly impressive in pre season and that Darnold was out playing him at that time.   which people were freaking about, but given the kind of season Darnold had, maybe not so surprising.

so from the sound of it Darnold was likely to be the day 1 starter either way.    Thats not to say that JJ cant take the starting job from him, but I dont think his stock has gone up since draft day. (partly due to injury)

so I think if he signs a reasonably team friendly 2 or 3 year deal (maybe 2 with a team option for year 3)  Then if he gets beat out for the job they will be able to move him and that cap hit out.    I also think there is a fair chance that he wont be able to perform in another offense as he had some pretty high end WR to throw to.    Likely this and a better offensive scheme is the reason he was better.  His previous stops didnt have anywhere near that level of talent at WR.

but in the end what it comes down to is expectations.

If Darnold expects to get PAID, he may struggle to get a contract.    Personally I think a 2 -3year team friendly deal should be Darnolds priority.   He is in an offense that he seems to be able to perform in.   he likely knows the alternative is to go to a less talented team and he may go back to his old ways in that situation.

I'd suggest year 1-2 should be team friendly.  Year 3 could be a team option at a higher rate(player friendly) so they can walk from it if hes not performing or lock it in if he is.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Exactly, Darnold will get paid, nfl tosses money around like it has no meaning.  But you can’t sell me that Darnold is better , Mayfield has been better, and is better.   When were they both in Carolina? 

I never argued that he was getting paid, I simply said that Darnold this year was better than Mayfield last year, and why I used the numbers I did.  What can you point to where Mayfield last year was better than Darnold this year?

[weepaws 3,148]

Darnold was better this year than Mayfield was last year, but Mayfield was better this year than Darnold, will less talent imo.  I don’t think Darnold should get paid what Mayfield makes, Mayfield even before his last two seasons was and has been a much better player than Darnold.  

[Ray_T 739]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Darnold was better this year than Mayfield was last year, but Mayfield was better this year than Darnold, will less talent imo.  I don’t think Darnold should get paid what Mayfield makes, Mayfield even before his last two seasons was and has been a much better player than Darnold.  

I think its a reasonable comparison.

neither QB is considered to be elite but they are likely in that category that people would label as guys who can be Decent starters if they have the talent around them and a decent coach/scheme.

you can poo poo the numbers but I think they are close enough to figure out the range of value there.   I think a Mayfield type contract is likely close to where he should land.

obviously if Darnold wants to chase the money, he might do better in free agency, but its also possible he might not.    The team has a guy who could potentially be a replacement for him on the roster, so I dont see any reason for the vikings to overpay for Darnold.   I wouldnt  be inclined to tag him, thats for sure.

but like I said in a prior post, this is an offense that Darnold seems to be able to perform in.   I dont know why he would want to leave the situation.   So a somewhat team friendly deal makes sense from both sides.   obviously you still have to pay him in the range of what a starting QB in the NFL makes.   but you do not need to max that out with a franchise tag.   That makes no sense at all.

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

On 1/17/2025 at 6:50 PM, Ray_T said:

but like I said in a prior post, this is an offense that Darnold seems to be able to perform in.   I dont know why he would want to leave the situation.   So a somewhat team friendly deal makes sense from both sides.   obviously you still have to pay him in the range of what a starting QB in the NFL makes.   but you do not need to max that out with a franchise tag.   That makes no sense at all.

Yeah, I think the wise move for the Vikings is to give him a deal that they can either move from (via release or trade), but also one the can extend, like Mayfield's (as long as they don't do something stupid like Tampa did and add voidable years to the deal).  Play him next year and re-evaluate both him and McCarthy after the 2025 season.  If Darnold has another good season, maybe they choose to trade McCarthy.  If there's a team who had a high grade on McCarthy who missed out on him in the 2024 draft and needs a QB for the 2026, they will part with a 1st round pick.  Seattle is actually a team that comes to mind.  Geno Smith is about to enter the last year of his contract. 

 

[Ray_T 739]

10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, I think the wise move for the Vikings is to give him a deal that they can either move from (via release or trade), but also one the can extend, like Mayfield's (as long as they don't do something stupid like Tampa did and add voidable years to the deal).  Play him next year and re-evaluate both him and McCarthy after the 2025 season.  If Darnold has another good season, maybe they choose to trade McCarthy.  If there's a team who had a high grade on McCarthy who missed out on him in the 2024 draft and needs a QB for the 2026, they will part with a 1st round pick.  Seattle is actually a team that comes to mind.  Geno Smith is about to enter the last year of his contract. 

 

and I would argue JJ might actually be a good fit in Seattle

[nobody 2,555]

I think people probably overestimated how many millions Darnold lost.  I think some dumb team will pay him $35M a year.

[jrokh 608]

3 minutes ago, nobody said:

I think people probably overestimated how many millions Darnold lost.  I think some dumb team will pay him $35M a year.

35 Million would only have made Darnold the 18th highest paid QB in 2024, so below average. That would be the going rate for an average starter...

[nobody 2,555]

I don't think he would've made much more than that either way.

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

Spotrac.com projects his market value to be at $40M AAV.

The fact that a team would pay that, is mind boggling.