Mid & late Rb ideas

[GobbleDog 985]

I'm Wr guy which burned me last year, but I am what I yam. Draft early Wrs, scout Rbs later. So I'm hunting through the rankings today, doing my first bit of research and a few names stood out.

(Rb 12) Breece Hall - how the mighty have fallen considering where he ranked last year (3rd). Only missed one game and finished Rb 16. Everything was down - yds, tds and rec (though still a respectable 57 rec). In '23, Hall finished Rb 4 despite a bad Jets offense. Rodgers is gone replaced by Fields - no Rb competition added. Jets invested a first rd pick on o-line and signed a couple backups (might increase last year's lowly 2.1 Yds-Before-Contact). If he repeats last year he'll be slightly poor value, and if he reverts to '23... tremendous. The truth is probably in the middle. Still young, talented, and probably the focal point of the offense with Fields under center.

(Rb 14) James Cook - despite missing a game he slightly out performed Adp and finished Rb 9. Similar to '23 when he finished Rb 11. No major changes in Buffalo. Interestingly, the Bills had the most rushing Tds last year with Cook getting a whopping 16, though his receptions declined to 32. No Rb competition added. The Bills are a high scoring offense and he's a beneficiary. Entering 4th year, only missed two total games. Feels like a safe pick in this range.

(Rb 21) Aaron Jones - old man still doing it. Finished Rb 14 last year without missing a game. The big change is McCarthy at Qb and the Vikings also signed Rb Jordan Mason to a sizable contract so Jones might not see another 255 carries. But he was productive with his carries at 4.5 ypc and added 51 rec. Vikes invested a 1st rd pick on o-line and signed two decent free agents.  Might be tough to replicate last year with Mason in the fold (never know), but Rb 21 seems like the floor if healthy again.

(Rb 27) RJ Harvey - Bronco's 2nd rd pick. Scouts say he can run like hell and most importantly - he can catch.  Lord knows Shanahan edit: Sean Payton loves that. Minimal Rb competition. Considering the draft capital invested, probably steps in as the lead back who could be staring at least 50+ receptions (J Williams had 52).  Rb 27 seems like a gift.

(Rb 29) Quinshon Judkins - Brown's 2nd rd pick. Supposedly Chubb's replacement. Probably not quite as good, but scouts love him - "homerun ability" - whatever. Likely doesn't get tons of receptions as Ford is still there. The Browns do two things well - play defense and pound the rock, it's in their DNA. This is the new rock totter. Maybe it's early and the hype train hasn't left the station, but this feels too low for a guy who might easily get 200+ carries.

(Rb 31) Brian Robinson Jr. - finished Rb 29 last year, due to missing 3 games and left early in a couple. Still had 187 carries, (4.3 ypc) 8 Tds, 25 rec. Redskins had 4th most rushing Tds last year, mainly due to Daniels but shows commitment. Robinson has missed a few games each of his three years, but he's still the lead back as old man Ekeler didn't show much. Redskins invested a 1st rd pick on o-line. Can't imagine Robinson breaking top 10-15 with Daniels vulturing so many carries and Tds, but should easily out-perform this lowly adp.

 (Rb 35) Javonte Williams - ok scraping the barrel, but what the hell is wrong with Jerry Jones? Upgraded Zeke and Dowdle with Williams and Miles Sanders? Seriously? Cowboys spent 5th and 7th round picks on Rbs, but they don't appear to be the main starters (make league-min money). No guarantee Williams does anything with his new starting gig despite lack of competition but we're talking about a 10th rd fantasy pick here and the Cowboys have a decent offense. Feels like a decent dart throw.

Thoughts?  Which mid to late Rbs are yall eyeballing? 

[LaChup 229]

Skattebo. Alstott Part Deux

 

4 touches, 4 yards, 4 tds per game.

[RareN64Dream 21]

5 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I'm Wr guy which burned me last year, but I am what I yam. Draft early Wrs, scout Rbs later. So I'm hunting through the rankings today, doing my first bit of research and a few names stood out.

(Rb 12) Breece Hall - how the mighty have fallen considering where he ranked last year (3rd). Only missed one game and finished Rb 16. Everything was down - yds, tds and rec (though still a respectable 57 rec). In '23, Hall finished Rb 4 despite a bad Jets offense. Rodgers is gone replaced by Fields - no Rb competition added. Jets invested a first rd pick on o-line and signed a couple backups (might increase last year's lowly 2.1 Yds-Before-Contact). If he repeats last year he'll be slightly poor value, and if he reverts to '23... tremendous. The truth is probably in the middle. Still young, talented, and probably the focal point of the offense with Fields under center.

(Rb 14) James Cook - despite missing a game he slightly out performed Adp and finished Rb 9. Similar to '23 when he finished Rb 11. No major changes in Buffalo. Interestingly, the Bills had the most rushing Tds last year with Cook getting a whopping 16, though his receptions declined to 32. No Rb competition added. The Bills are a high scoring offense and he's a beneficiary. Entering 4th year, only missed two total games. Feels like a safe pick in this range.

(Rb 21) Aaron Jones - old man still doing it. Finished Rb 14 last year without missing a game. The big change is McCarthy at Qb and the Vikings also signed Rb Jordan Mason to a sizable contract so Jones might not see another 255 carries. But he was productive with his carries at 4.5 ypc and added 51 rec. Vikes invested a 1st rd pick on o-line and signed two decent free agents.  Might be tough to replicate last year with Mason in the fold (never know), but Rb 21 seems like the floor if healthy again.

(Rb 27) RJ Harvey - Bronco's 2nd rd pick. Scouts say he can run like hell and most importantly - he can catch.  Lord knows Shanahan loves that. Minimal Rb competition. Considering the draft capital invested, probably steps in as the lead back who could be staring at least 50+ receptions (J Williams had 52).  Rb 27 seems like a gift.

(Rb 29) Quinshon Judkins - Brown's 2nd rd pick. Supposedly Chubb's replacement. Probably not quite as good, but scouts love him - "homerun ability" - whatever. Likely doesn't get tons of receptions as Ford is still there. The Browns do two things well - play defense and pound the rock, it's in their DNA. This is the new rock totter. Maybe it's early and the hype train hasn't left the station, but this feels too low for a guy who might easily get 200+ carries.

(Rb 31) Brian Robinson Jr. - finished Rb 29 last year, due to missing 3 games and left early in a couple. Still had 187 carries, (4.3 ypc) 8 Tds, 25 rec. Redskins had 4th most rushing Tds last year, mainly due to Daniels but shows commitment. Robinson has missed a few games each of his three years, but he's still the lead back as old man Ekeler didn't show much. Redskins invested a 1st rd pick on o-line. Can't imagine Robinson breaking top 10-15 with Daniels vulturing so many carries and Tds, but should easily out-perform this lowly adp.

 (Rb 35) Javonte Williams - ok scraping the barrel, but what the hell is wrong with Jerry Jones? Upgraded Zeke and Dowdle with Williams and Miles Sanders? Seriously? Cowboys spent 5th and 7th round picks on Rbs, but they don't appear to be the main starters (make league-min money). No guarantee Williams does anything with his new starting gig despite lack of competition but we're talking about a 10th rd fantasy pick here and the Cowboys have a decent offense. Feels like a decent dart throw.

Thoughts?  Which mid to late Rbs are yall eyeballing? 

I saw a report that Brian Robinson Jr. might get traded, just FYI.

[JagFan 149]

I know this has become the trend, but I still prefer an anchor RB in the 1st or 2nd round.  The NFL is so pass happy that it’s easier to find pass catchers in the mid-late rounds than RBs.  If you do take an anchor RB, avoid outliers like Hall last year.  There was zero reason for him to be ranked as high as he was.  He was on one of the worst teams in the NFL, behind a horrible QB, and did most of his damage in 2023 in a couple of blowup games.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

RJ Harvey..... 

I like Harvey, for the purposes of this thread he should be a nice target.  Not sure what Shanny has to do with this pick but Sean Payton does "love that" too.  

[GobbleDog 985]

15 hours ago, RareN64Dream said:

I saw a report that Brian Robinson Jr. might get traded, just FYI.

Dang... apparently so. Here's a couple articles - first about how high Redskins are about their 7th Round pick (jeesh). The other about a possible Robinson to Chicago trade.

Quote

The Commanders took Jacory Croskey-Merritt with their 7rd rd pick. Only played one game last season due to eligibility issues, but Washington is confident he avoids further issues and returns to 2023 form, where he was nothing short of sensational for New Mexico. Merritt went relatively under the radar, but the Commanders had interest during the assessment process.

What this means by others in the running back room is anyone's guess. The Commanders kept faith with their four contributors from last season, but all of them are in the final year of their respective deals.

 

Quote

Chicago has been tied to free agent Rbs such as Nick Chubb and JK Dobbins. Both offer potential, but they each come with significant injury histories. Instead, the Bears could turn to the trade market. That includes Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr, who Ben Standig of The Athletic thinks could make for a Bears trade target.

Seems strange to me. Trading a productive commodity in Robinson and banking on a 7th rounder. Guess we'll see what happens over the next few months.

[GobbleDog 985]

12 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

RJ Harvey..... 

I like Harvey, for the purposes of this thread he should be a nice target.  Not sure what Shanny has to do with this pick but Sean Payton does "love that" too.  

Yes... "Sean Payton."   I'm old, and it's still early in the season. Cut me some slack.

[GobbleDog 985]

11 hours ago, LaChup said:

Skattebo. Alstott Part Deux

4 touches, 4 yards, 4 tds per game.

Giants 4th rd pick... Cameron Skattebo (currently Rb 41).  From what scouts say - "tough, gritty, bruiser" does sound like Alstott. Probably gets goal line and short yardage work.  Gotta worry how many total carries he gets with Tracy and Singletary still in town. Might be boom or bust each week with goal line Tds.

[GobbleDog 985]

8 hours ago, JagFan said:

If you do take an anchor RB, avoid outliers like Hall last year.  ... and did most of his damage in 2023 in a couple of blowup games.

More than a couple. In '23 Hall had six games with 20+ fantasy points (ppr). Only McCaff had more.

Regardless, which anchor Rb do you recommend avoiding this year?  Just for discussion sake - doesn't matter to me... I'm Wr guy.

1. Bijan 2. Barkley 3. Gibbs 4. Achane 5. Jeanty  6. McCaff 7. Henry 

[Showboat 252]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

More than a couple. In '23 Hall had six games with 20+ fantasy points (ppr). Only McCaff had more.

Regardless, which anchor Rb do you recommend avoiding this year?  Just for discussion sake - doesn't matter to me... I'm Wr guy.

1. Bijan 2. Barkley 3. Gibbs 4. Achane 5. Jeanty  6. McCaff 7. Henry 

Okay, I'll play.  Barkley will disappoint - last season was extraordinary and RBs almost never have consecutive extraordinary seasons.  From that list, I'd consider Gibbs and Jeanty to be the "safest" and I like McCaffrey to bounce back (and potentially finish as the #1 RB).  

[GobbleDog 985]

3 hours ago, Showboat said:

Barkley will disappoint - last season was extraordinary and RBs almost never have consecutive extraordinary seasons.

Of all the players I was wrong about last year... I was DEAD WRONG about Barkley. Metrics were on the decline, didn't expect the volume, and a bunch of other stuff that sounds ridiculous now.  The one thing I ignored that everyone kept saying "yeah, but that o-line will make him great." Turns out they were right - more than they even realized.

Quickly became evident - Barkley popped through the line (showed more agility/speed than I expected) and ran for first downs/Tds completely untouched. It was too easy.  Most Rbs finished the season with about 2.4 Yards-Before-Contact-Per-Attempt. But Barkley... led all Rbs at 3.8. Next closest was Gibbs at 3.3.

As much as I'd love to join your bandwagon and call Barkley a potential disappointment, I've lost all credibility on that subject. And considering that o-line I wouldn't dare try.

[JagFan 149]

12 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

More than a couple. In '23 Hall had six games with 20+ fantasy points (ppr). Only McCaff had more.

Regardless, which anchor Rb do you recommend avoiding this year?  Just for discussion sake - doesn't matter to me... I'm Wr guy.

1. Bijan 2. Barkley 3. Gibbs 4. Achane 5. Jeanty  6. McCaff 7. Henry 

I agree that Barkley will regress, but I still think he finishes in that top 7.  The one to avoid this year for me is Henry.   396 touches last year, and he’s 31 y/o.

[GobbleDog 985]

4 hours ago, JagFan said:

The one to avoid this year for me is Henry.   396 touches last year, and he’s 31 y/o.

I've been saying that about Henry the past three years, and yeah. I give up... he's inhuman.  Also another Rb who benefited from a great run blocking o-line with a Yards-Before-Contact per attempt rate of 3.1, third place only to Barkley and Gibbs.

From that list of top 7 ranked Rbs... I'd be most nervous about McCaffrey. Missed significant time in 5 of the last 6 years. Now entering his 10th season and about to turn 29. Mid-2nd round isn't nearly enough discount.

Regardless, I won't be drafting any of them. '24 adp -vs- actual finish... the top Rbs correlated much better than the top Wrs. That almost never happens. Lighting might strike twice, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Ray_T 740]

On 5/7/2025 at 9:50 PM, GobbleDog said:

I'm Wr guy which burned me last year, but I am what I yam. Draft early Wrs, scout Rbs later. So I'm hunting through the rankings today, doing my first bit of research and a few names stood out.

(Rb 12) Breece Hall - how the mighty have fallen considering where he ranked last year (3rd). Only missed one game and finished Rb 16. Everything was down - yds, tds and rec (though still a respectable 57 rec). In '23, Hall finished Rb 4 despite a bad Jets offense. Rodgers is gone replaced by Fields - no Rb competition added. Jets invested a first rd pick on o-line and signed a couple backups (might increase last year's lowly 2.1 Yds-Before-Contact). If he repeats last year he'll be slightly poor value, and if he reverts to '23... tremendous. The truth is probably in the middle. Still young, talented, and probably the focal point of the offense with Fields under center.

(Rb 14) James Cook - despite missing a game he slightly out performed Adp and finished Rb 9. Similar to '23 when he finished Rb 11. No major changes in Buffalo. Interestingly, the Bills had the most rushing Tds last year with Cook getting a whopping 16, though his receptions declined to 32. No Rb competition added. The Bills are a high scoring offense and he's a beneficiary. Entering 4th year, only missed two total games. Feels like a safe pick in this range.

(Rb 21) Aaron Jones - old man still doing it. Finished Rb 14 last year without missing a game. The big change is McCarthy at Qb and the Vikings also signed Rb Jordan Mason to a sizable contract so Jones might not see another 255 carries. But he was productive with his carries at 4.5 ypc and added 51 rec. Vikes invested a 1st rd pick on o-line and signed two decent free agents.  Might be tough to replicate last year with Mason in the fold (never know), but Rb 21 seems like the floor if healthy again.

(Rb 27) RJ Harvey - Bronco's 2nd rd pick. Scouts say he can run like hell and most importantly - he can catch.  Lord knows Shanahan edit: Sean Payton loves that. Minimal Rb competition. Considering the draft capital invested, probably steps in as the lead back who could be staring at least 50+ receptions (J Williams had 52).  Rb 27 seems like a gift.

(Rb 29) Quinshon Judkins - Brown's 2nd rd pick. Supposedly Chubb's replacement. Probably not quite as good, but scouts love him - "homerun ability" - whatever. Likely doesn't get tons of receptions as Ford is still there. The Browns do two things well - play defense and pound the rock, it's in their DNA. This is the new rock totter. Maybe it's early and the hype train hasn't left the station, but this feels too low for a guy who might easily get 200+ carries.

(Rb 31) Brian Robinson Jr. - finished Rb 29 last year, due to missing 3 games and left early in a couple. Still had 187 carries, (4.3 ypc) 8 Tds, 25 rec. Redskins had 4th most rushing Tds last year, mainly due to Daniels but shows commitment. Robinson has missed a few games each of his three years, but he's still the lead back as old man Ekeler didn't show much. Redskins invested a 1st rd pick on o-line. Can't imagine Robinson breaking top 10-15 with Daniels vulturing so many carries and Tds, but should easily out-perform this lowly adp.

 (Rb 35) Javonte Williams - ok scraping the barrel, but what the hell is wrong with Jerry Jones? Upgraded Zeke and Dowdle with Williams and Miles Sanders? Seriously? Cowboys spent 5th and 7th round picks on Rbs, but they don't appear to be the main starters (make league-min money). No guarantee Williams does anything with his new starting gig despite lack of competition but we're talking about a 10th rd fantasy pick here and the Cowboys have a decent offense. Feels like a decent dart throw.

Thoughts?  Which mid to late Rbs are yall eyeballing? 

good post by the way.

I like hall and cook if these are their ADP on draft day.   I like Cook more than Hall.    there is some risk associated with the change at QB but I also acknowledge they may be running the ball more to some extent that will even out but I still think the net will be a decrease in numbers.

Jones also has significant risk as they likely are going with JJ as starter in Minny.   

I really like Harvey as an RB3 if you can get him for that price.   ditto for Judkins

Robinson is solid at RB31.   there is very significant upside if Ekeler goes down and he has to play a full load.

Javonte I also dont mind at the RB35.   hes a guy who I'd take as one of the first RB4 off the board (I usually take my RB4 earlier than most)   There is upside and he showed flashes last year but just not consistent enough.   maybe hes done.  but maybe he just needed more time to get his game back.  at this price hes practically free.  why not take the risk and see if you can capture that upside if he shows it.

 

 

[GobbleDog 985]

47 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Jones also has significant risk as they likely are going with JJ as starter in Minny.  

Not "likely" - they're definitely going with JJ.  But I get the sense the Vikes coach is bit of a Qb whisperer - much like Andy Reid.  Doesn't seem to matter who he's got, they all succeed. Don't expect much offensive drop-off from that. Jones main issue is staying healthy, though he finally did it last year and showed he can still be very productive.

Aside from health, the other concern is Jordan Mason signing - 2 years $10.5 mill. Vikes are gonna want some return on that and it probably cuts into Jones touches. Also might help keep him healthy, so perhaps a trade-off.  Still Jones at Rb 21 put him around mid-6th round. A fair price in my mind.

[Ray_T 740]

54 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Not "likely" - they're definitely going with JJ.  But I get the sense the Vikes coach is bit of a Qb whisperer - much like Andy Reid.  Doesn't seem to matter who he's got, they all succeed. Don't expect much offensive drop-off from that. Jones main issue is staying healthy, though he finally did it last year and showed he can still be very productive.

Aside from health, the other concern is Jordan Mason signing - 2 years $10.5 mill. Vikes are gonna want some return on that and it probably cuts into Jones touches. Also might help keep him healthy, so perhaps a trade-off.  Still Jones at Rb 21 put him around mid-6th round. A fair price in my mind.

I know thats the plan, but there is always the possibility something unforseen happens.    as a rookie he could flop in camp and lose his job, he could get hurt, etc.

there are no guarantees here.  but I get where you are coming from.

either way at that point in the draft I dont mind Jones.   but hes not a RB I'd reach for given his age and situation.

[WhiteWonder 2,681]

Harvey and Javonte are two you mentioned that I like as later targets if the draft unfolds where I wind up going WR heavy. Depending on where Hall's adp winds up in August, I would consider him as well but the new offense scares me. They continued to upgrade the line and are going with a starting QB who they know is inaccurate but can run. I envision a decent amount of running from Fields and a decent role for Braelon Allen. At the same time, I do not think the offense as a whole will be good enough to replicate a Gibbs/Montgomery situation. 

As someone else mentioned, I also tend to like taking an anchor RB because there are always more productive WR's to be found in the mid rounds. 

That said, The consensus top backs are a group I do not feel as comfortable with as in years past. CMC and his injury history?, Jeanty as a rookie? Henry and the mileage? I actually feel okay about Barkley. I think he just needed to get on a team with an offensive line.

[Ray_T 740]

34 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

As someone else mentioned, I also tend to like taking an anchor RB because there are always more productive WR's to be found in the mid rounds. 

I have found there are 2 things you NEED to get if you get a good shot at it.

1) Elite (top 6) RB

2) Elite (top 6)WR

#2 and #3 WR are replaceable and if you are astute, you can get one in later rounds.    but Elite WR and RB are irreplacable gamebreakers.    when you get a shot at one, you take it.

Admittedly it is rare to get more than one of the above on your roster, but it does happen.  In the July Mock I got both Henry and Sequon at the turn in round 1.  but the sacrafice was that I couldnt get an elite #1 WR.    Though the way the draft fell, there wasnt (in my opinion) an Elite #1 WR available at that time(I was drafting at the turn) so I went Barkley and Henry.    a Strategy that(last year at least) likely only would only work if drafting out of my slot.  number 10 or 11 slot might have worked but I had my doubts either would last any longer if I didnt pick them then and there.

I've also found that trading for RB once the season starts is very difficult.   people are more willing to part with a WR than a RB.    so to me that means I overvalue the RB position slightly.

[GobbleDog 985]

Learned a little more about the Aaron Jones situation. The Vikes didn't just get Jordan Mason out of free-agency...  they traded a 5th rd pick in '25 & 6th rd pick in '26 with the Niners, before signing him to the 2-year deal with $7 mill guaranteed and a max value of $12 mill.

Aaron Jones had a good fantasy season with lots of receptions and a healthy 4.5 ypc. But inside the five yd line... 13 carries for NEGATIVE 2 yds, and just 3 Tds - awful. This is reportedly one of the big reasons the Vikes aggressively pursued Mason - he's gonna get most if not all the goal-line carries and short yardage situations. Even Jones himself recently told reporters his role is going to change yielding to Mason. He's 20 lbs heavier, a great interior runner, and after three seasons has a carrier average of 5.3 ypc.

Given the situation, Jones could finish with a meager 4+- Tds this year. He'll still be the pass catcher, but he's 30 years old with a history of getting dinged up, and last year's full work load could work against him. Some speculate that as the season the progresses, it's quite possible that Jones and Mason's roles reverse and Mason becomes the lead back with Jones as the change of pace.

Given all that ... Jones Rb 21 adp suddenly doesn't look so great.  Food for thought.

[Super Cubs 153]

I like Pollard the titians did not add any one significant in the draft and Spears is his back up. I guess the big thing will be if their rookie QB can get the passing game going but can it really get worse than last year. Overall I expect more of the same from Pollard. 

 

[GobbleDog 985]

1 hour ago, Super Cubs said:

I like Pollard the titians did not add any one significant in the draft and Spears is his back up. I guess the big thing will be if their rookie QB can get the passing game going but can it really get worse than last year. Overall I expect more of the same from Pollard.

(Rb 23) Pollard - missed a game and finished Rb 21. 260 carries (4.2 ypc) and 41 receptions. That volume usually results in a top 15+ finish, but only 6 total Tds held him back - though entire team only had 8. Problem was the offense was terrible, defense abysmal (allowed most points), and the o-line ranked near the bottom. Game script wasn't good for Pollard as they were usually losing by half time and defenses had nothing fear from the passing game. Impressive Pollard even managed 4.2 ypc in that mess.

Enter Qb Cam Ward who's mobile, but not necessarily a running Qb. The Titans signed a big name o-lineman from Detroit, but he's 35 and not much else changed to fix the o-line. Spears missed 5 games last year which helped inflate Pollard's volume some, but even when healthy Spears didn't impress. Titans drafted a Rb the late 6th, but he's a short-yardage guy and at best a change of pace. Doubtful he steals much, if any, goal line work.

Bottom line...  Pollard's durability probably means another year of big volume which means low-floor - at worst another Rb 21 finish. But the team's sad state of affairs probably means the best one could hope for Rb 15+-.  So relatively safe in that respect and reasonable for a late-6th pick.

[Ray_T 740]

4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Learned a little more about the Aaron Jones situation. The Vikes didn't just get Jordan Mason out of free-agency...  they traded a 5th rd pick in '25 & 6th rd pick in '26 with the Niners, before signing him to the 2-year deal with $7 mill guaranteed and a max value of $12 mill.

Aaron Jones had a good fantasy season with lots of receptions and a healthy 4.5 ypc. But inside the five yd line... 13 carries for NEGATIVE 2 yds, and just 3 Tds - awful. This is reportedly one of the big reasons the Vikes aggressively pursued Mason - he's gonna get most if not all the goal-line carries and short yardage situations. Even Jones himself recently told reporters his role is going to change yielding to Mason. He's 20 lbs heavier, a great interior runner, and after three seasons has a carrier average of 5.3 ypc.

Given the situation, Jones could finish with a meager 4+- Tds this year. He'll still be the pass catcher, but he's 30 years old with a history of getting dinged up, and last year's full work load could work against him. Some speculate that as the season the progresses, it's quite possible that Jones and Mason's roles reverse and Mason becomes the lead back with Jones as the change of pace.

Given all that ... Jones Rb 21 adp suddenly doesn't look so great.  Food for thought.

this has been the case his whole career.  though maybe not to the degree we saw this last year.   hes not a great short yardage guy.  In real football (not fantasy) you need to pair him up with a short yardage specialist.   for fantasy that means his TD numbers will be underwhelming but his yardage will be ok.