Marvin Harrison Jr.

[ICEMAN 44]

I saw a recent picture of Marvin the other day and it looks like he is going the David Boston route. He looks like he put on 20 pounds of muscle. He looked like a TE!

 

ICEMAN

[Maximum Overkill 1,887]

2 hours ago, ICEMAN said:

I saw a recent picture of Marvin the other day and it looks like he is going the David Boston route. He looks like he put on 20 pounds of muscle. He looked like a TE!

 

ICEMAN

I love Marvin Harrison Jr the player. I just don't trust that little sawed off QB that has to throw it to him. 

He'd have 1800 yards with a real QB who can actually see him. 

 

MAXIMUM OVERKILL 

[Showboat 256]

5 hours ago, ICEMAN said:

I saw a recent picture of Marvin the other day and it looks like he is going the David Boston route. He looks like he put on 20 pounds of muscle. He looked like a TE!

Not sure that will work out any better for MHJ than it did for Mr. Boston.

[nobody 2,641]

So the guy that can't separate added weight probably making him even less quick out of breaks.  Awesome.

[Ray_T 752]

6 hours ago, nobody said:

So the guy that can't separate added weight probably making him even less quick out of breaks.  Awesome.

yeah, that was not what he needed to do.

he should have been working on speed and agility training. 

 

unless he actually wanted to be a TE...... 

[GobbleDog 989]

8 hours ago, nobody said:

So the guy that can't separate added weight probably making him even less quick out of breaks.  Awesome.

Playerprofiler.com bears that out: Harrison's 1.03 yds of separation ranked #107.  

It's not like he needs to be top 10... just better. The best-of-the-best:  Chase (36th), Jefferson (38th), St Brown (15th), Nacua (44th), Thomas Jr. (23rd), Lamb (60th), etc.

[Ray_T 752]

his catch radius makes up for a lot.  dont get me wrong.   but if he could gain even a half yard more separation on average, his numbers would improve dramatically

that said, part of his separation issues is because after the week 2 (or was it week 3?) explosion, he was double covered a LOT.

I dont know how this plays into the separation stats, or if they just include cases where it was single coverage.

It would make sense to throw out all the instances where he was double covered so they are comparing apples to apples when putting him up against other WR.   and maybe a second stat for separation when double covered.

to that end, as I dont know exactly how they come up with the metrics, I really dont know how valid this actually is.

[GobbleDog 989]

28 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I really dont know how valid this actually is.

I don't either. Just look for similar properties the best at that position have (other than pure volume).

Harrison had plenty of double coverage compared to mediocre receivers, but that much more than elites?  I know Chase definitely got his share.

[Ray_T 752]

44 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I don't either. Just look for similar properties the best at that position have (other than pure volume).

Harrison had plenty of double coverage compared to mediocre receivers, but that much more than elites?  I know Chase definitely got his share.

bottom line.... until we know how they put the stats together its tough to really get an idea of how this stat is in terms of a stat where we can use it to rank our WR.

I suppose you could take WR who have roughly the same level of double coverage and compare them....

Then again he was a rookie.  whatever these stats are, I have to believe there will be a year 2 improvement here.   provided the weight gain doesnt slow him down.....

[Maximum Overkill 1,887]

Harrison is a Kyler Murray issue. He was wide open all over the field and Kyler didn't see him half of the time or couldn't make the throw. 

Harrison would have 1800 yards easy with a Joe Burrow 

[GobbleDog 989]

Bottom line... are you excited to draft Harrison at Wr 21 or mid-4th rd? 

Last year he finished Wr 42 in avg pt/gm. That's a pretty big leap. I'll let the gamblers draft him.

[Maximum Overkill 1,887]

16 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Bottom line... are you excited to draft Harrison at Wr 21 or mid-4th rd? 

As a WR2 with WR1+ upside. Let's go!! 

[Ray_T 752]

3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Harrison is a Kyler Murray issue. He was wide open all over the field and Kyler didn't see him half of the time or couldn't make the throw. 

Harrison would have 1800 yards easy with a Joe Burrow 

I wouldnt necessarily blame Kyler.  it takes time to develop a trust between a pass catcher and a QB.  in key situations there are likely WR he knows what they will do on a certain play.

thats why WR rarely blow up out of the gate.  it usually takes a year or two.  sometimes up to 3 years for that to happen.

be patient.  eventually it will be fine.

[JagFan 155]

He’s no Brian Thomas Jr, that’s for sure.

JAGFAN

[LaChup 233]

Now is the time for Clayton Tune to shine. Soar eagle!

[nobody 2,641]

Can't blame Kyler for missing Harrison the few times he's open.  Kyler probably just got used to getting him off him early as a read since he's such a JAG.

Kyler out there like, "yep, dude blanketed as usual.  Where's Dortch?  He's always open."

[nobody 2,641]

Turned on NFL live for the first time in a year in a half or so.  MHJ bulking up came up.  Of course, the pundits predicted big things for him because God forbid we call a JAG a JAG.

But then they end with... He had 880 yards receiving last year.  Only Brian Thomas had more as a rookie.  I'm all like, "why y'all lying?" Nabers? Bowers? Ladd? 

And before that Kevin Clark said he's only one of 6 rookie wide receivers who had 880 yards and 8 tds in the last 10 years.  Like yeah, bro, they forced him some tds,   conveniently, Ladd, Thomas and Nabers all had 7.  I clocked what you did... Tacking on the notorious high variance td stat to make him look better than he was.  

Turned that shìt right off.

[wolves111 106]

On 5/23/2025 at 8:44 PM, nobody said:

Turned on NFL live for the first time in a year in a half or so.  MHJ bulking up came up.  Of course, the pundits predicted big things for him because God forbid we call a JAG a JAG.

But then they end with... He had 880 yards receiving last year.  Only Brian Thomas had more as a rookie.  I'm all like, "why y'all lying?" Nabers? Bowers? Ladd? 

And before that Kevin Clark said he's only one of 6 rookie wide receivers who had 880 yards and 8 tds in the last 10 years.  Like yeah, bro, they forced him some tds,   conveniently, Ladd, Thomas and Nabers all had 7.  I clocked what you did... Tacking on the notorious high variance td stat to make him look better than he was.  

Turned that shìt right off.

Stopped watching months ago. Between the liberal DEI hire Mina what’s her name and Ryan Clark, the male version of Joy Reid, just can’t watch it. 

[jrokh 608]

Laura Rutledge is worth the price of admission...

[wolves111 106]

She has quite the body

[Ray_T 752]

12 hours ago, wolves111 said:

She has quite the body

no argument there.  I used to turn into that show and just mute it.    just for the eye candy

 

[polecatt 478]

On 5/23/2025 at 11:43 AM, GobbleDog said:

Playerprofiler.com bears that out: Harrison's 1.03 yds of separation ranked #107.  

It's not like he needs to be top 10... just better. The best-of-the-best:  Chase (36th), Jefferson (38th), St Brown (15th), Nacua (44th), Thomas Jr. (23rd), Lamb (60th), etc.

Out of curiosity, do you know who was in the top 10? A few at least?

[GobbleDog 989]

4 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Out of curiosity, do you know who was in the top 10? A few at least?

Not a subscriber, so I can't see the full ranking list. Just individually look them up.

I know Marvin Mims is #1... though he's got the lowest yds-before-catch in the world at 0.7.  Jayden Reed is #2.

There's a bunch of Te's in the top 10 like Kraft (#4), Gray, Conklin, Likely.... guess they automatic separation just by play-design. 

Khalil Shakir is #7. Zay Flowers is #9. 

There's another website (NFL next gen stats) that has separation stats, but they aren't the same rank and yds of sep for whatever reason. Still, it's close.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

[GobbleDog 989]

Metrics be damned, the no. 1 correlation deciding Wr fantasy success is ... targets. Shocking I know.

5 Wrs had 150+ targets last year... 4 finished top 5.  Wilson odd man out finishing Wr 10.  Chase had the most (175) and... of course finished Wr 1. 

15 Wrs had 125+ targets ... and 12 finished top 15.  DJ Moore finished Wr 16, Meyers Wr 19, and W Robinson Wr 36.

Basically figure out which Wr gets lots of targets and stays healthy, you've pretty much nailed it.

[polecatt 478]

4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Not a subscriber, so I can't see the full ranking list. Just individually look them up.

I know Marvin Mims is #1... though he's got the lowest yds-before-catch in the world at 0.7.  Jayden Reed is #2.

There's a bunch of Te's in the top 10 like Kraft (#4), Gray, Conklin, Likely.... guess they automatic separation just by play-design. 

Khalil Shakir is #7. Zay Flowers is #9. 

There's another website (NFL next gen stats) that has separation stats, but they aren't the same rank and yds of sep for whatever reason. Still, it's close.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

Thanks, just curious as to see how valuable of a stat this is.

Doesn't seem to be worth much. Not for fantasy purposes at least.

 

[polecatt 478]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Metrics be damned, the no. 1 correlation deciding Wr fantasy success is ... targets. Shocking I know.

5 Wrs had 150+ targets last year... 4 finished top 5.  Wilson odd man out finishing Wr 10.  Chase had the most (175) and... of course finished Wr 1. 

15 Wrs had 125+ targets ... and 12 finished top 15.  DJ Moore finished Wr 16, Meyers Wr 19, and W Robinson Wr 36.

Basically figure out which Wr gets lots of targets and stays healthy, you've pretty much nailed it.

Shocker!

Football, real or fantasy, whole, real numbers matter. Can't have much of anything without the targets

[nobody 2,641]

In regards to targets, that's also where MHJ sucked.  His catch % was trash.

He said something to the effect that he added weight for contested catches and YAC.

The YAC part was good.  I know in college anytime he caught a ball and had a defender within 3 yards he dropped down like a baby deer, but even he knows he can't separate.  Dude is planning for contested catches.  So in other words plan for his target share to go down and his catch % to stay horrible.

[GobbleDog 989]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

Doesn't seem to be worth much. Not for fantasy purposes at least.

Yeah, I've looked for correlations top Wrs have aside from pure volume and not much stands out. Though Harrison being #107 in separation is a huge outlier none of the elites have.

Rbs have slightly better correlation. Key categories where most elite Rbs are consistently high (aside from volume):  True yac (discounts 10+ yd runs for more accurate measure), Yds per Touch, Juke Rate, Yds created per Touch (yds beyond what was blocked or juked), Production premium (situational comparison of carries/targets play outcome to league average). 

Even with high rankings in all those categories, it still takes volume. But does show how efficient they are with carries/touches and could indicate increased or decreased volume in the future. The metrics showed Zeke was cooked as burnt toast going into last year... and yeah, he was.

[GobbleDog 989]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

 Dude is planning for contested catches.  So in other words plan for his target share to go down and his catch % to stay horrible.

I guess bulk helps contested catches.... then again might limit jumping.?.

Regardless, his adp is bit rich for my taste. Like I said he finished Wr 42 in avg pts / gm. He'll almost certainly do better than that, but.... Wr 20ish?  At run-first Arizona with Kyler Murray? Maybe, but I ain't willing to gamble on it.

[Ray_T 752]

13 hours ago, nobody said:

In regards to targets, that's also where MHJ sucked.  His catch % was trash.

thats no guarantee that the problem is with MHJ.   if the QB is wildly inaccurate, that will affect the catch %.   and Harrison is known for his wide catch radius so I'm inclined to think that problem may be the QB.      though it could just be that the QB and WR are not on the same page for their reads.   that happens a lot with rookies too.

to that end,  It is possible they fix that this year and we see a substantial turnaround.

This is one of those players who, if he falls too far in the draft he could be a real bargain at WR.

[Maximum Overkill 1,887]

11 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

 if the QB is wildly inaccurate, that will affect the catch %.   and Harrison is known for his wide catch radius so I'm inclined to think that problem may be the QB.

My thoughts exactly.  Nobody can deny the talent, Harrison Jr was drafted BY EVERYONE as the WR1 for a reason, The talent hasn't changed. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,517]

16 hours ago, polecatt said:

Thanks, just curious as to see how valuable of a stat this is.

Doesn't seem to be worth much. Not for fantasy purposes at least.

 

I think if you want fantasy relevant information on this, you might need to pay for it.  Listening to the fantasy sports channel on SiriusXM, the guys from fantasypoints.com (John Hansen), talk about their separation stats a lot.  I went to check out their website, and obviously this stat is behind a pay wall.  No problem with that, but to get that stat, you need to pay $200 for that subscription.  Yeah, ain't happening.

[nobody 2,641]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

thats no guarantee that the problem is with MHJ.   if the QB is wildly inaccurate, that will affect the catch %.   and Harrison is known for his wide catch radius so I'm inclined to think that problem may be the QB.      though it could just be that the QB and WR are not on the same page for their reads.   that happens a lot with rookies too.

to that end,  It is possible they fix that this year and we see a substantial turnaround.

This is one of those players who, if he falls too far in the draft he could be a real bargain at WR.

I don't think Kyler is inaccurate.  It's more likely because Harrison can't run a route, he just ran to open space or was late instead of being where he's supposed to be on time.  That's the other thing no one talks about when scouting receivers.  He got lauded for route running and I think it's because Ohio state had such a good line, the QB could just wait until he found some space and then see him open and then throw.  No anticipation required.

That's another difference in the NFL.  They throw anticipating that a receiver will be where they are supposed to be when they're supposed to be there.  Good route runners find a way to not only create separation, but setup the DB so they create separation and get to where they are supposed to be on time.

I learned that on josh palmer.  I fell in love with his ability to create space.  Then I'd watch herbert hit every other receiver on the team in the numbers on every throw and miss palmer by three yards.  I realized palmer was just creating space by going where the DB wasn't.  That of course isn't good enough.  if you're supposed to run a 10 yard out and the DB has outside leverage, you need to make him give up his leverage in the beginning of the route by selling an inside break.  You can't just turn the 10 yard out into a stop or an inside break which is what I think palmer was doing.

[Ray_T 752]

2 hours ago, nobody said:

I don't think Kyler is inaccurate.  It's more likely because Harrison can't run a route, he just ran to open space or was late instead of being where he's supposed to be on time.  That's the other thing no one talks about when scouting receivers.  He got lauded for route running and I think it's because Ohio state had such a good line, the QB could just wait until he found some space and then see him open and then throw.  No anticipation required.

That's another difference in the NFL.  They throw anticipating that a receiver will be where they are supposed to be when they're supposed to be there.  Good route runners find a way to not only create separation, but setup the DB so they create separation and get to where they are supposed to be on time.

I learned that on josh palmer.  I fell in love with his ability to create space.  Then I'd watch herbert hit every other receiver on the team in the numbers on every throw and miss palmer by three yards.  I realized palmer was just creating space by going where the DB wasn't.  That of course isn't good enough.  if you're supposed to run a 10 yard out and the DB has outside leverage, you need to make him give up his leverage in the beginning of the route by selling an inside break.  You can't just turn the 10 yard out into a stop or an inside break which is what I think palmer was doing.

that is the problem.  we dont know the reason.  not for sure anyways.  but yeah,  I thought Palmer was gonna have a good year, but maybe the issue is that hes not where he needs to be.

when I played QB there was a WR on my team who used to get open a fair bit, but he often did not run the route he was supposed to run.    To that end, he asked why I didnt hit him and the answer was,  you were my second read.   I looked at my first read,  and he wasnt open.   I looked for you and you were not in the place I thought  you were supposed to be.    I have big O linemen in my face at that point and I had to check it down.  I didnt have time to look for you.

then I said, if you want the football, you need to be where you are supposed to be if you want the ball.   if I have to look for you, I'm gonna take a sack.

eventually he started running the routes I wanted, but it took some time for him to make this connection and make it happen on the field.    He eventually became my #1 WR but it did not happen overnight.

[weepaws 3,165]

Love to be able to draft him as my wr2.  

[ICEMAN 44]

15 hours ago, weepaws said:

Love to be able to draft him as my wr2.  

Ditto. I think that round 4/5 is about right for the risk.

ICEMAN

[Ray_T 752]

On 6/4/2025 at 12:17 AM, weepaws said:

Love to be able to draft him as my wr2.  

 

20 hours ago, ICEMAN said:

Ditto. I think that round 4/5 is about right for the risk.

ICEMAN

Look at that I agree too.  Me, Iceman and Weepaws all agree on something.   has this ever happened before?

just kidding mostly, but you guys were saying exactly what I was thinking.

[Maximum Overkill 1,887]

He actually had a really good rookie season despite how it looked. We got spoiled with Nabers, McConkey and Thomas Jr. 885 and 8 TDs isn't quite WR1 numbers but it's damn good for a rookie. I can easily see 1,200 and 10+ this season.  I'd be doing backflips if I got him as my WR2 

[nobody 2,641]

Nah.  His rookie season was trash.  He got lucky that he got a few tds.  It's about catches and yards.  And his catch percentage? Trash.  His separation? Trash.

[JagFan 155]

On 6/5/2025 at 6:51 PM, nobody said:

Nah.  His rookie season was trash.  He got lucky that he got a few tds.  It's about catches and yards.  And his catch percentage? Trash.  His separation? Trash.

Yea, but you’re not considering his name and that’s what matters the most.