CMC

[JagFan 179]

I heard this afternoon on SXM that CMC is battling tendinitis in his Achilles again…same as last year this time.  Not finding any corroborating info online.  You all hearing anything?

[Mike FF Today 733]

Haven't heard anything but positive vibes around McCaffrey.

[JagFan 179]

2 hours ago, Mike FF Today said:

Haven't heard anything but positive vibes around McCaffrey.

Thanks Mike.  It was Jeff Ratcliffe talking about it.

[Ray_T 764]

18 hours ago, JagFan said:

Thanks Mike.  It was Jeff Ratcliffe talking about it.

I remember reading something of this too.  I got no link.  dont remember where I read it.   I couldnt even tell you if it was a reputable source.

it was on my list of things to research as draft day approached. I'm drafting late in nearly all  my keeper leagues so even if hes left unprotected its unlikely he would fall to me.  so for that reason I didn't really follow up on this report to see if there is any merit to it.

[LaChup 234]

McCaffrey's Mom says McCaffrey is her favorite player and she would draft him #1. 

[Ray_T 764]

16 hours ago, LaChup said:

McCaffrey's Mom says McCaffrey is her favorite player and she would draft him #1. 

is your nickname 'Master of the obvious'???

just curious.....

[kutulu 1,688]

CMC and DND are only 1 letter apart

[JagFan 179]

22 hours ago, kutulu said:

CMC and DND are only 1 letter apart

Ok, that’s pretty dang funny!  

[WhiteWonder 2,836]

he's the ultimate league winner, league loser pick right now. If he is 80% of prime CMC, getting him near the end of round 1, start of round 2 is robbery. If the issues crop up, you'll be in a tremendous hole considering the other really good options available in that area. He's going too low for his upside but too high for his risk. The risk alone should have him probably going after JT, Kyren and such.  Of course if you go the CMC route, you can do you best to ensure you draft Guerrendo. 

[Ray_T 764]

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

he's the ultimate league winner, league loser pick right now. If he is 80% of prime CMC, getting him near the end of round 1, start of round 2 is robbery. If the issues crop up, you'll be in a tremendous hole considering the other really good options available in that area. He's going too low for his upside but too high for his risk. The risk alone should have him probably going after JT, Kyren and such.  Of course if you go the CMC route, you can do you best to ensure you draft Guerrendo. 

100%.

if you're a gambler, this is the ultimate fantasy football bet.

but I'd say if there is a player out there that gives you a 30% chance to win the championship.  most people will roll the dice.   Normally I'd give him 50-60%% but there are reports hes nursing some sort of injury.  These health issues lingering dont bode well for a player who already has a bit of a bad injury history.   so I'm dropping that to 30%   I am fully willing to revise if a report comes out confirming he is fully healthy.   but I think this is where he is at.    given risks, he should be a 2nd round pick but He likely goes late in round 1 to someone who maybe doesnt place a lot of weight on injury risk

[weepaws 3,234]

My 14 team non ppr, I have Barkley #1 CMC #2.  Not just my rb rankings , but overall.  

[WhiteWonder 2,836]

8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

My 14 team non ppr, I have Barkley #1 CMC #2.  Not just my rb rankings , but overall.  

doesn't seem prudent.  while CMC could lead even standard scoring leagues in ppg, so much of his value is as a receiver... plus there are backs who can easily produce as much or more than him who don't have his wear and tear (Bijan, Gibbs)

By all means if you pick 2nd and Barkely is gone, pick CMC. He might win you your league.... Just seems like a weird risk when there are younger, fresher, just as productive options available.

[weepaws 3,234]

I have Gibbs third, and Robinson fourth. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,175]

Bijan

Gibbs

Barkley 

Jeanty

Henry

J. Taylor 

Achane 

Hampton 

[Ray_T 764]

On 7/30/2025 at 2:44 PM, WhiteWonder said:

doesn't seem prudent.  while CMC could lead even standard scoring leagues in ppg, so much of his value is as a receiver... plus there are backs who can easily produce as much or more than him who don't have his wear and tear (Bijan, Gibbs)

By all means if you pick 2nd and Barkely is gone, pick CMC. He might win you your league.... Just seems like a weird risk when there are younger, fresher, just as productive options available.

he might.   but he might lose your league too.

if picking on the end of round 1 thats where I'd consider taking him.    Hes probably gone by  that point but I suspect in some formats he will still be on the board at that point.   most likely in standard leagues.

[WhiteWonder 2,836]

8 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

he might.   but he might lose your league too.

if picking on the end of round 1 thats where I'd consider taking him.    Hes probably gone by  that point but I suspect in some formats he will still be on the board at that point.   most likely in standard leagues.

Yes I agree.  The guy is saying CMC is his #2.  That's a big leap of faith (no pun intended)...

I guess the only thing i'll say is if you're drafting 2nd and CMC is the top guy on your personal projections, you won't be getting him in round 2 so you gotta do what you gotta do. There is a little bit of FF where people blindly follow ADP to a fault. Now if ADP says you can get a guy 3 rounds later, then you should hold off. But if ADP says a guy is 8-10 picks later, you have to get your player. 

[nobody 2,739]

On 7/30/2025 at 10:05 AM, WhiteWonder said:

he's the ultimate league winner, league loser pick right now. If he is 80% of prime CMC, getting him near the end of round 1, start of round 2 is robbery. If the issues crop up, you'll be in a tremendous hole considering the other really good options available in that area. He's going too low for his upside but too high for his risk. The risk alone should have him probably going after JT, Kyren and such.  Of course if you go the CMC route, you can do you best to ensure you draft Guerrendo. 

You could easily get guerrendo, so he shouldn't be a league loser. 

You could also get my favorite rookie sleeper Corey Kiner, but mum's the word on that.

[Ray_T 764]

3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Yes I agree.  The guy is saying CMC is his #2.  That's a big leap of faith (no pun intended)...

I guess the only thing i'll say is if you're drafting 2nd and CMC is the top guy on your personal projections, you won't be getting him in round 2 so you gotta do what you gotta do. There is a little bit of FF where people blindly follow ADP to a fault. Now if ADP says you can get a guy 3 rounds later, then you should hold off. But if ADP says a guy is 8-10 picks later, you have to get your player. 

totally.

I never follow ADP to the letter.

I have my own rankings that I work on myself.    I use ADP as a general guideline in terms of when I expect a player to go (plus or minus a few picks)

so when I look at my top 3 or 4 players on the board and if one looks like there is a chance he slides to my next pick that player gets left.   and if he does slide to the next pick I get a steal.

so ADP is useful that way because sometimes at certain points in the draft you can get both of the players you are wanting if things fall the right way.

so In my rankings I have one column for where I rank the player.  one for their most up to date ADP.    then when I find out what draft slot I'm picking out of,  I highlight the players I mostly expect to be on the board for each pick.

on occasion (usually in the mid or later rounds) a player ranked higher will fall significantly.   if it looks too good to be true, If I have my computer handy I do a quick double check to see if there is a reason.

but usually those end up being good picks too.

either way,  no draft list is perfect.  mine isnt, yours isnt, and neither is the draft list provided by any website you can think of.   I do use the fftoday rankings because I usually dont have to do too many modifications to it.   I have found their rankings to usually be reasonably close to my own.    That way when I modify the rankings to suit my own needs I dont have a ton of work to do on it.   

but that is my own preference.   in theory any ranking by any online website will do.     and its better to pick a site whose opinions on players is similar to your own so you dont have to do too many modifications to the rankings.

[weepaws 3,234]

I do have my Rbs ranked 1. Barkley, 2 Mccaffery , right now he’s been going 8th pick and earlier, in my 14 team non ppr league I don’t know when I will draft for another week, but the top eight slots have been selected by the first 10 people that picked.   So it doesn’t look good for me, but if I had the#2 pick and Barkley went first, I would take Mccaffery.  

This is my favorite time of the year for ff, getting prepared for my two drafts.   

[Showboat 258]

5 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I guess the only thing i'll say is if you're drafting 2nd and CMC is the top guy on your personal projections, you won't be getting him in round 2 so you gotta do what you gotta do. There is a little bit of FF where people blindly follow ADP to a fault. Now if ADP says you can get a guy 3 rounds later, then you should hold off. But if ADP says a guy is 8-10 picks later, you have to get your player. 

Sometimes you shouldn't blindly follow your personal projections either.  While CMC certainly has a reasonable shot at being the #1RB, the age and durability risk is what has driven his ADP down to the bottom half of the first round.  Why take on that risk at #2?  Trade down if that's allowed, otherwise taking him at #2 just allows someone else to get better value in the bottom half of round 1.  

[JagFan 179]

1 hour ago, Showboat said:

Sometimes you shouldn't blindly follow your personal projections either.  While CMC certainly has a reasonable shot at being the #1RB, the age and durability risk is what has driven his ADP down to the bottom half of the first round.  Why take on that risk at #2?  Trade down if that's allowed, otherwise taking him at #2 just allows someone else to get better value in the bottom half of round 1.  

This is the age old debate every year about some player.  There’s always an elite talent with red flags.  The sad truth is that any player risks injury every time they step on the field.  Last year the debate was CMC, hence this debate, and D Henry because of his age and wear.  Sometimes the risk pays off like Henry, and sometimes risk was really worse than anyone knew like CMC.  I agree CMC is risky that high, but he could outperform even the #2 pick.  You really just have to go with your gut feeling, and if that’s taking CMC 5-6 spots higher than his ADP I wouldn’t criticize it.  Some could argue that pushing CMC down to the back half of round 1 IS letting someone get a stud that late.  I tend to lean RB over WR and I can tell you the only WR I’d consider over him is Chase.  Chase isn’t going to reproduce last years numbers.  Having him at #1 is chasing last years numbers, and that’s never a good idea.  I personally have them ranked as Bijan, Gibbs, Saquan, CMC, Chase as my top 5.

[WhiteWonder 2,836]

2 hours ago, Showboat said:

Sometimes you shouldn't blindly follow your personal projections either.  While CMC certainly has a reasonable shot at being the #1RB, the age and durability risk is what has driven his ADP down to the bottom half of the first round.  Why take on that risk at #2?  Trade down if that's allowed, otherwise taking him at #2 just allows someone else to get better value in the bottom half of round 1.  

Umm. Yeah

that was pretty much the point of my post and if you read my previous response about CMC second overall I think you’d have a better understanding. I was not agreeing with picking him there, just musing that sometimes holding tight to adp means you will miss out on a player you’re very high on. If we marry ourselves to “value” based on adp we might as well just go on auto draft.

of course if there is an opportunity to trade down and get something in return, that’s great. But if it’s not really an option and you truly value a 10-14 adp player as the best on your board, go for it. 

[WhiteWonder 2,836]

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

This is the age old debate every year about some player.  There’s always an elite talent with red flags.  The sad truth is that any player risks injury every time they step on the field.  Last year the debate was CMC, hence this debate, and D Henry because of his age and wear.  Sometimes the risk pays off like Henry, and sometimes risk was really worse than anyone knew like CMC.  I agree CMC is risky that high, but he could outperform even the #2 pick.  You really just have to go with your gut feeling, and if that’s taking CMC 5-6 spots higher than his ADP I wouldn’t criticize it.  Some could argue that pushing CMC down to the back half of round 1 IS letting someone get a stud that late.  I tend to lean RB over WR and I can tell you the only WR I’d consider over him is Chase.  Chase isn’t going to reproduce last years numbers.  Having him at #1 is chasing last years numbers, and that’s never a good idea.  I personally have them ranked as Bijan, Gibbs, Saquan, CMC, Chase as my top 5.

In PPR I’m probably taking Bijan, Gibbs, Barkley, Chase, Lamb and JJ before I’m considering CMC. St Brown possibly as well.

but cmc is someone to really watch closely because if he is healthy, with the losses of Deebo and Aiyuk for at least a bit of time, CMC could be an absolute beast in ppr. 

[Ray_T 764]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

In PPR I’m probably taking Bijan, Gibbs, Barkley, Chase, Lamb and JJ before I’m considering CMC. St Brown possibly as well.

but cmc is someone to really watch closely because if he is healthy, with the losses of Deebo and Aiyuk for at least a bit of time, CMC could be an absolute beast in ppr. 

true.   I think the big red flag is there has been some reports that he is dinged up already.

Not sure how good the source is.    but if considering him, this is something I would want to research thoroughly.     this is the type of player where doing your research can give you a better idea of whether hes worth the risk.

Personally I find the risks with him to be too high to consider taking him in the early part of round 1.    once we get past pick 8 or 9 hes a guy you at least want to think about.... but I likely dont take him unless I'm drafting at(or near) the turn and hes still on the board.

Thats where I value the guy.      That likely means hes not gonna be on any of my teams this year and if that is the case, I'm ok with that.

[JagFan 179]

Shout out to the Jets fans pimping B Hall as the #2 pick last year based off of 2 outlier games in 23!  The AARON writing was all over the wall of that disaster in the making this time last year.  It’s going to be what it’s going to be, and CMC will define the fate of many teams this year.  Be it from the 2 spot, or the 12 spot.  It’s officially FF season.  Let’s go!!!!

[weepaws 3,234]

I remember going into last seasons draft, I was saying how great J Jacobs was going to be, is ADP was really good, many disagreed, he was better than I thought.  I use my own rankings for a reason, more reliable than using the ADP.   

[GobbleDog 1,002]

Without ever looking at adp... I would've guessed CMC's adp be about mid-3rd rd. Shows what I know. 

Clearly I'm not the gambler. He could fall to the 4th rd and honestly I wouldn't draft him. It's not just the injury risk... does he even still have the juice that once made him great coming off that injury and given his age?  Maybe, but nobody knows. That's a two-fer risky. Not interested. 

[the spanker 28]

21 hours ago, Ray_T said:

true.   I think the big red flag is there has been some reports that he is dinged up already.

Not sure how good the source is.    but if considering him, this is something I would want to research thoroughly.     this is the type of player where doing your research can give you a better idea of whether hes worth the risk.

Personally I find the risks with him to be too high to consider taking him in the early part of round 1.    once we get past pick 8 or 9 hes a guy you at least want to think about.... but I likely dont take him unless I'm drafting at(or near) the turn and hes still on the board.

Thats where I value the guy.      That likely means hes not gonna be on any of my teams this year and if that is the case, I'm ok with that.

Curious to know your reference stating he's already dinged up?  I don't see that anywhere. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,175]

CMC's injuries are degenerative. He's never going to get better, only worse. It's insanity for any fantasy player to put a first round grade on him with so much other talent on the board there. I wouldn't even weigh the risk till the mid second, and even at that price I'm probably out. 

Cuff the nightmare out of him if you do take him, but I wouldn't. 

[makindollaz 51]

So I play in a league where we keep 1 player and I have Chase.  I know CMC’s owner isn’t keeping him so if he’s there with my first pick, I might roll the dice since I have Chase as a safe #1.

[Ray_T 764]

On 8/7/2025 at 11:05 AM, weepaws said:

I remember going into last seasons draft, I was saying how great J Jacobs was going to be, is ADP was really good, many disagreed, he was better than I thought.  I use my own rankings for a reason, more reliable than using the ADP.   

that goes without saying.    going from an offense that was a gong show to one that actually functions seemed like a no brainer.    but it is surprising how many people just looked at his numbers and said 'hes bad'  not taking situation into account.

I was pretty happy to get him in the leagues where I got him.

[Ray_T 764]

12 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

CMC's injuries are degenerative. He's never going to get better, only worse. It's insanity for any fantasy player to put a first round grade on him with so much other talent on the board there. I wouldn't even weigh the risk till the mid second, and even at that price I'm probably out. 

Cuff the nightmare out of him if you do take him, but I wouldn't. 

well, a top 5 pick on him is drafting for his upside without really taking the risks into account.   People do it all the time.   That doesnt mean they should.....  but they do.   Problem with this guy if you look,  the years where he spent significant time injured were basically a writeoff.   Hes not one of those guys who can play while dinged up.  Usually when he gets hurt, hes out for a while.   Not like some RB's who get hurt, miss 2 or 3 games and then return.  over the last few years hes been injured pretty close to 50% of the time.   sure hes played closer to 65% of the games but those years where he played 4 and 7 games he was highly ineffective when trying to play hurt.   Might as well not have played at all.   In fact it would have been better for his fantasy owners if he hadnt played because they put him in the lineup only to see him lay an egg.   so might as well call those injury games and say he was healthy half the time. (or slightly more than half the time)

either way, 4 seasons is a decent size sample so saying hes a 50-50 player is likely reasonably fair.   so there is roughly a 50% chance of health.  50% no health.   so using that as a guideline, the midpoint is around 75%.   to be generous, lets say 80%.    so if you cut his expected production while healthy by 20-25% that is likely a reasonably fair place to value the guy.

so if you expect 19-20 fantasy points per game, this reduction for risk takes him into the 15-16 points per game and places him roughly #6 among players who had a reasonable number of games played.

That puts him around Derek Henry's ADP.   roughly at the turn between round 1 and 2.  Personally I'd rather have Henry who has at least been durable.  Henry's only problem is hes on the wrong side of the age 30.    so he is not without risk.   but he is more likely to stay on the field, so I'd pick that risk ahead of CMC's risk.

either way, thats how I got to my projection.   you dont have to like it.  but at least you know Im not pulling these numbers out of thin air.

for the record, if you wanna go back 5 years instead of 4 the numbers dont actually get better for him.  but he was productive in the 3 games he played that year prior to getting hurt.

Either way, this is just food for your thoughts.

 

[Maximum Overkill 2,175]

13 hours ago, Ray_T said:

That puts him around Derek Henry's ADP.   roughly at the turn between round 1 and 2.  Personally I'd rather have Henry who has at least been durable.  Henry's only problem is hes on the wrong side of the age 30.    so he is not without risk.   but he is more likely to stay on the field, so I'd pick that risk ahead of CMC's risk.

either way, thats how I got to my projection.   you dont have to like it.  but at least you know Im not pulling these numbers out of thin air.

for the record, if you wanna go back 5 years instead of 4 the numbers dont actually get better for him.  but he was productive in the 3 games he played that year prior to getting hurt.

Either way, this is just food for your thoughts.

You're 100% correct. 

Does the risk out weight the reward though? For a first round grade, absolutely. I'd feel better with a Chase Brown on my roster and hammer WR in the first. That's just my thinking, to each his own. 

[Ray_T 764]

On 8/9/2025 at 7:35 AM, Maximum Overkill said:

You're 100% correct. 

Does the risk out weight the reward though? For a first round grade, absolutely. I'd feel better with a Chase Brown on my roster and hammer WR in the first. That's just my thinking, to each his own. 

hey, if you think you can draft an above average team across the board and think this guy in the middle or late part of round 1 could put you over the top, yeah you take the chance.  Even if you think its only a 30-40% chance he performs.   

The upside is there.  but there are also other players who could get you there.   whether you could get them at the point you are picking CMC may be another matter.

hes a boom bust pick.  no doubt about that.   I guess whether you take him really depends on your tolerence for risky picks.

Not saying taking him is bad.   I'm saying I'd take him at the turn of round 1-2.   If you're saying you'd pick him at 7 the difference there isnt huge.  likely comes down to personal preference.

If I knew h'd be fully healthy and play up to his abilities Id take him at #1 or #2 overall.   The reason I wont is because of injury history.   Thats my preference.

Like I said, you know where my numbers come from on this I explained it earlier.   if you think the risks are different than what I've assessed or you are willing to take the risk maybe you do take him at 6 or 7.   That doesnt necessarily mean either of us are wrong.  we just have different risk tolerances.    its not like our projected rankings are 3 round apart lol     its likely less than 6 draft slots.   hes still a premium RB (assuming hes heatlhy)

[nobody 2,739]

If you could guarantee CMC could stay healthy, where would he go?  3rd overall or so?

If that's the case, why not draft him at the end of the first and pair him with Guerrendo who you can get in like the 12th?

 

[Maximum Overkill 2,175]

32 minutes ago, nobody said:

If that's the case, why not draft him at the end of the first and pair him with Guerrendo who you can get in like the 12th?

The problem with that is if they split touches, to an extent, neither will have much stand alone value. 

I would imagine that they'll limit CMCs touches to try and keep him healthy for the playoffs run/playoffs. He'll never be that bell cow again, his body can't do it anymore. 

[nobody 2,739]

When the hell has Kyle shannihan ever split his runningback touches?  He just runs whoever his starter is into the ground.  

[Ray_T 764]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

If you could guarantee CMC could stay healthy, where would he go?  3rd overall or so?

If that's the case, why not draft him at the end of the first and pair him with Guerrendo who you can get in like the 12th?

 

the reason you wouldnt likely do that is because I dont think he drops that far in the majority of drafts.

I'm sure it happens,  but the odds of him being on the board at 11or 12 is likely less than 50%

and if you are drafting at 7 or 8, the real issue is if you dont take him, you wont get him.    Thats where it becomes more difficult.  

in some leagues Im sure the trade back option is there.  but in a lot of leagues there is no trading of draft picks so I'm not sure your option works for most.   in the draft I'm gonna be in next week I do have the ability to trade back.   I just dont know that I will.    I drew the #5 draft slot.   I dont see myself trading back.

[Ray_T 764]

26 minutes ago, nobody said:

When the hell has Kyle shannihan ever split his runningback touches?  He just runs whoever his starter is into the ground.  

100%.

Shanny doesnt typically do this by committee.   whoever is the starter that game gets a lot of work.  its almost never a 50-50 split

[Maximum Overkill 2,175]

48 minutes ago, nobody said:

When the hell has Kyle shannihan ever split his runningback touches?  He just runs whoever his starter is into the ground.  

He will because he has to