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#1 riversco

riversco

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 07:12 AM

I'd like to start a little stock chat thread if you'll oblige.  Today seems as good a day as any.

 

Regarding the 800 point drop in the Dow and the market correction, one of two things will occur:

 

1.  We are heading for an imminent recession

2. This is just a correction and the market will rebound to new highs.

 

The FIRST sign of a recession is a hiring freeze.  Jobs just dry up.  Corporations are smart and they know when the recession is actually coming.  You don't need all the information corporations have, you just need to see how they act.  Corporate America is still on a hiring binge.  That means we will get option 2.  The correct strategy is to buy into panic selling and just sit on it.  I saw this coming ahead of time and sold a lot of stock beforehand.  I'm looking to rebuy lower.  We probably drop more but I have signals in place if not.  Its easy money really.  I can't guarantee we just saw the low or not.  We could easily drop more.  But the point is not picking bottoms, its just buying a deep discount while knowing we'll head back to new highs.  If I bought this morning, and we dropped another 10% before bottoming, I'd be fine with that.  I think it goes lower so I'm going to wait on rebuying in my case.

 

So for example, TNA is at $71.  You could buy around here TODAY as of this posting and (in the short term) it might drop more to $60 or maybe even $50 or $40.  But at some point in the next 6-12 months, it will set a new high.  I think its really pessimistic to say 12 months but I'll throw that in there.  I think there is a very good chance you double your money in 12 months at some point.

 

I might not stop by regularly to respond but I hope that's ok.



#2 riversco

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 03:26 AM

An update of my battle plan this morning:

 

1.  October 11th was the down day with the biggest trading volume which is what we will now base the rest of analysis on.

2.  We often see one more huge drop after a huge down day with huge volume, so I waited on buying.  If we got that, I would have bought.

3.  Instead, we got a bounce.

4.  In almost all cases, price has to retest the low.  So a good bet here is to wait for some sort of retest of the lows of October 11th.  There is a chance the retest never happens though.

5.  The least-likely event is that (1) the down day with huge volume marks the exact low AND (2) the market just rebounds to new highs with no retest.  If THAT occurs, I never rebuy and instead I wind up sitting in cash unfortunately.  (1) has occurred and now we waiting to see if (2) occurs.