How comfortable are you with Toby G as a RB2?

[BigMilk 40]

In the 12-14 team mocks I've done he's been going as early as the 4th and as late as the 7th, and in 10-teamers even later. Maybe that doesn't seem like such a huge disparity, but for someone who is ostensibly a starting, bellcow RB and given this year's crop of backs, it seems to reflect quite a divergence of opinion. I don't really know much about the guy, but he seems to have the stars aligned for a solid, possibly top-10 fantasy year in any format (good measurables; no real injury history; good speed and one-cut, power running style; a committed coaching staff, favorable system, and no real competition for carries). He may not be much a receiver, and their passing game may mean a lot of stacked boxes, but the positives seem to clearly outweigh the negatives on paper. Yet people seem to prefer CJ0K, Tate, Joique Bell, Vereen, SJax, Sankey - to name a few - over Toby, despite apparently more question marks and less upside.

 

I'd like to think we'd get a better feel for him during camp, but the coaching staff is so far up Toby's arse that I'm assuming most of the reporting is going to be teamspeak propaganda and largely useless.

 

He is one of the few guys I really don't have a good read on. Can he be a legit RB2 in any format? Is he a value pick or a reach in round 5? Who do you think is comparable to him in terms of weekly consistency/overall value at RB?

 

[IGotWorms 3,315]

In a 12 team league I'd say he is definitely a value pick in the fifth round. Based on the number of touches he should get alone, he will be worth that draft slot. If he's actually any good then he'll be worth a whole lot more.

 

Which is not to say that I am very high on him. Personally I don't think he has the talent to be a star as an every-down back. But again, you can't argue with the number of expected touches.

[weepaws 2,460]

In the 12-14 team mocks I've done he's been going as early as the 4th and as late as the 7th, and in 10-teamers even later. Maybe that doesn't seem like such a huge disparity, but for someone who is ostensibly a starting, bellcow RB and given this year's crop of backs, it seems to reflect quite a divergence of opinion. I don't really know much about the guy, but he seems to have the stars aligned for a solid, possibly top-10 fantasy year in any format (good measurables; no real injury history; good speed and one-cut, power running style; a committed coaching staff, favorable system, and no real competition for carries). He may not be much a receiver, and their passing game may mean a lot of stacked boxes, but the positives seem to clearly outweigh the negatives on paper. Yet people seem to prefer CJ0K, Tate, Joique Bell, Vereen, SJax, Sankey - to name a few - over Toby, despite apparently more question marks and less upside.

 

I'd like to think we'd get a better feel for him during camp, but the coaching staff is so far up Toby's arse that I'm assuming most of the reporting is going to be teamspeak propaganda and largely useless.

 

He is one of the few guys I really don't have a good read on. Can he be a legit RB2 in any format? Is he a value pick or a reach in round 5? Who do you think is comparable to him in terms of weekly consistency/overall value at RB?

 

I like him a lot more then the other rb that you talked about . Just the fact that he is going to get almost all the work . Unlike CJ or Tate or J Bell Vereen or SJax . Sankey is another rb who will get almost all the work . Yeah i see T Gerhart just because of the work he will get as a very good # 2 rb .

[dave32 14]

I feel shaky about it, especially because if he is your RB2 who is your RB behind him? I feel great about him as an RB3 though.

[Super Cubs 132]

I would have no problem drafting him to be my #2 RB

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Looking on ffc gerhart has an adp of 4.03 in a 12 team draft and his low is listed at 5.07.

 

Opportunity is the biggest factor when considering a rbs value. He is a solid back with a ton of opportunity and hasnt been injury prone. I dont see many safer options as a rb2.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I may be in the minority but I don't feel especially sold on him at this point.

 

I know he's had some nice games filling in for AP but I just don't really trust Jax's offense or defense.

 

 

Jax was 31st in the league in total rushing last year.

Jax was 31st in the league in total offense last year.

Jax was 27th in the league in total defense last year.

 

Running back success can often be very dependent upon the team and Jax doesn't inspire a lot of coincidence to me.

 

MJD squeezed out RB 20 of the situation last year though and he didn't have much to give so maybe I'm off base and I'll miss out.

[giraldi02 470]

It all depends on their quarterback situation honestly. I sold Gerhart prior to the draft...but if Bortles performs how I think he's capable of, Toby could be a steal in redrafts...especially if there was anywhere I could get him in the 5th (WR/WR anybody?)

[Matt Mueller 146]

I guess my view on him is that I'd be stoked to have him on a dynasty team. I'd feel like I'd struck gold.

 

But in redraft right now I just have just been drafting other players at his adp.

 

The current PPR rankings have him 4.03 in front of Welker, Harvin, AJ, Roddy and Fitz.

 

http://www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=ppr&year=2014&teams=12&view=graph&pos=all

[thePRO 78]

No way. Jacksonville offense? Serious? Staying far away from there.

[browndelivers 7]

I may be in the minority but I don't feel especially sold on him at this point.

 

I know he's had some nice games filling in for AP but I just don't really trust Jax's offense or defense.

 

 

Jax was 31st in the league in total rushing last year.

Jax was 31st in the league in total offense last year.

Jax was 27th in the league in total defense last year.

 

Running back success can often be very dependent upon the team and Jax doesn't inspire a lot of coincidence to me.

 

MJD squeezed out RB 20 of the situation last year though and he didn't have much to give so maybe I'm off base and I'll miss out.

 

This is where I come down, too. Without a solid O line, without a settled QB situation, without a track record of handling a full workload for a season, Gerhart just isn't in a solid enough RB2 position for me. If you were a D coordinator scheming against JAX, why wouldn't you stack the box every single game until Henne/Bortles whoever proved they could beat you in the air?

 

I'd probably even take Sankey over him if only because of the situation (he'll probably beat out Greene and TEN's O line is reportedly strong).

[weepaws 2,460]

Gerhart will be a good rb # 2 . He is going to get almost all the work and i would think he will do better then MJD 3.4 ypc last season . Even yes with all the oline problems and qb problems

[BigMilk 40]

 

This is where I come down, too. Without a solid O line, without a settled QB situation, without a track record of handling a full workload for a season, Gerhart just isn't in a solid enough RB2 position for me. If you were a D coordinator scheming against JAX, why wouldn't you stack the box every single game until Henne/Bortles whoever proved they could beat you in the air?

 

I'd probably even take Sankey over him if only because of the situation (he'll probably beat out Greene and TEN's O line is reportedly strong).

 

Point taken, and I agree to a large extent. But if you took the plunge on Michael Turner a few years ago when he went from a backup in San Diego to starter in Atlanta, you were rewarded. Couldn't this be a similar situation? In some ways it feels like it. Except that Toby had tremendous pedigree coming into the NFL.

 

Again, I'm not saying I like the dude, but if I'm in the 4th round with 1 RB and Toby is there - and the remaining RB options are CJ0K, Tate, Joique Bell, Vereen, SJax, Jennings - doesn't he warrant a pick? Even in PPR? Isn't he safer in most ways?

[Maroon Bells 18]

Watched every game he played in and I consider him a very good RB3 or a very low end RB2

 

What I like:

• Gerhart can pick up yards in big chunks when the holes are there

• He should be the bellcow, 3rd down and goal line back. Plus, he's a good receiving back. Not many backs get that kind of work

 

What I don't like:

• He gets very little on his own. He can't breakout against 8 and 9 in the box. Will his QB be good enough to avoid that?

• Jacksonville is not a great team. They'll be playing from behind a lot. So you could see a lot of 12-carry games for Gerhart

[ralphster 274]

It is my belief that JAX is building a very solid young core with talent and will be a lot better than most think. Sooner than they think too. I'm all over the Toby train in dynasty and redraft this year.

[ffgiant 10]

I won't take him as RB2. If you do take him as RB2, you might want to pair him with another capable RB to play RBBC instead for your RB2 position.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

He's on my DND list.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

I feel shaky about it, especially because if he is your RB2 who is your RB behind him? I feel great about him as an RB3 though.

 

This is how I feel about him too. I always draft RB heavy over the first 4 rounds, especially in leagues with a Flex position. I've been taking him as my 3rd and 4th RB off the board, but he has been going in the 4th rounds of my 12 team ppr redrafts. I haven't seen him fall to anywhere close to the 7th. Each draft his stock seemingly rises. I took him at the 4.01 in my most recent draft. Not because I wanted him there, but because I was stuck with the 1.12 and by the time the 3.12/4.01 picks came up, the RB's were flat out gone. He is my 3rd RB in that league, so if he puts up 1,300 total yards, I'd be more than satisfied. He was a flat out stud in college and he filled in great for AP. He's in a division that doesn't have the best run stopping defenses, although Indy and Houston should be better this year..... I think he can be a low end RB2, but I'll keep him as my RB3 for as long as I can get him in that slot. The biggest upside is he has no competition. Storm Johnson is nothing more than bench fodder and they have no intentions of trying Robinson as a starter. Provided he doesn't get injured, he's safe for 300 total touches.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

Watched every game he played in and I consider him a very good RB3 or a very low end RB2

 

What I like:

• Gerhart can pick up yards in big chunks when the holes are there

• He should be the bellcow, 3rd down and goal line back. Plus, he's a good receiving back. Not many backs get that kind of work

 

What I don't like:

• He gets very little on his own. He can't breakout against 8 and 9 in the box. Will his QB be good enough to avoid that?

• Jacksonville is not a great team. They'll be playing from behind a lot. So you could see a lot of 12-carry games for Gerhart

Great analysis, however, the one part I disagree with is them playing from behind a lot. The defense is better than last season and they have some very high quality young guys on that squad. I think they are in a lot of close games this season. They may still lose them all, but I can see them competing. They are slightly better than an average defense, in my opinion, this season.

On offense, they are very deep at WR now. Last season, with Shorts hurt a lot and Blackmon suspended, they didn't have a chance. Players like Ace Sanders couldn't make most teams as he goes down on the first hit. Allen Robinson and Lee will fix that. Shorts is healthy as well. The line will be upgraded with their LT back from injury and they brought in a new Guard/Center. Small moves, but moves that could make a huge impact. I think his downside is that of a RB3. His upside is that of a high RB2. Take him as your Flex or third RB and you should be just fine. It would be one hell of a bonus to have a Flex player put up high end RB2 numbers.

[browndelivers 7]

 

Point taken, and I agree to a large extent. But if you took the plunge on Michael Turner a few years ago when he went from a backup in San Diego to starter in Atlanta, you were rewarded. Couldn't this be a similar situation? In some ways it feels like it. Except that Toby had tremendous pedigree coming into the NFL.

 

Again, I'm not saying I like the dude, but if I'm in the 4th round with 1 RB and Toby is there - and the remaining RB options are CJ0K, Tate, Joique Bell, Vereen, SJax, Jennings - doesn't he warrant a pick? Even in PPR? Isn't he safer in most ways?

Good point on Turner, although Atlanta obviously had much better offense then compared to Jacksonville now (although JAX is getting better).

 

Your point on taking him in the 4th is a good one. If the choice is between him and some others you mentioned, esp. CJ0K, Tate, and SJax, I guess I'd take the risk with Gerhart. It's all a question of risk/floor with these guys, and I'd agree that Gerhart's risk is relatively low, although I think his floor and ceiling are low too.

 

Anyway, and I know this may sound like it contradicts everything I've already said, but in a PPR I've been thinking about going with a strategy of WR/TE for the first 3-4 rounds, and starting with a lottery-ticket RB strategy with people like Gerhart the rest of the way. The theory being that RB is so iffy beyond the first 3-5 picks, and in PPR WR/TE is so disproportionately important in a pass-first era that it might be better to maximize pass catcher value and roll the dice on RBs, IF and only if you are picking beyond, say, slot 4-5 (you're not going to ignore Charles or AP). My drafts look something like this, which is a 10-team mock I did the other day from the 8 slot.

 

1.08 Megatron

2.03 Dez

3.08 Cobb

4.03 Gronk

5.08 Rashad Jennings

6.03 Sankey

7.08 Gerhart [Now, this seems pretty late to have Gerhart available, but ESPN is currently ranking him 80th overall, so it's not out of the question.]

8.03 Pierce

9.08 G. Tate

10.03 Brady

11.08 L. Miller

12.03 Cutler

13.08 R. Randle

14.03 T. West

15/16: D/ST and K

 

So in this situation, I'm throwing Gerhart into the mix of possible RBs, recognizing that I'm probably only going to play 2 RBs in any week. If any two of Jennings, Sankey, Gerhart, Pierce, Miller, or West "hit" (not LeSean territory but serviceable), I'm fine, even if none of them are really classified as RB1 or even RB2. It's a big risk, obviously. But so is going RB early from a late-round slot. I've found in mocks when I have a late-round pick and go with the RB-early strategy is that I have to reconcile myself with RBs like Foster when there are solid options like Demaryius, Dez, and Marshall on the table, and then I also end up with WR1s like Cobb and Garcon. Not horrible, but not great either.

[BigMilk 40]

 

So in this situation, I'm throwing Gerhart into the mix of possible RBs, recognizing that I'm probably only going to play 2 RBs in any week. If any two of Jennings, Sankey, Gerhart, Pierce, Miller, or West "hit" (not LeSean territory but serviceable), I'm fine, even if none of them are really classified as RB1 or even RB2. It's a big risk, obviously. But so is going RB early from a late-round slot. I've found in mocks when I have a late-round pick and go with the RB-early strategy is that I have to reconcile myself with RBs like Foster when there are solid options like Demaryius, Dez, and Marshall on the table, and then I also end up with WR1s like Cobb and Garcon. Not horrible, but not great either.

 

I'm coming around to this strategy too. If drafting late in the first round means having to take a Montee Ball and then a Gio Bernard at the turn, I'd rather go stud WR-WR and then load up on RBs in the middle rounds and hope one of the guys you mention hits. It sucks having to settle for RB mediocrity with your first two picks, especially in a PPR.

[BoxFullofJoel 3]

I actually think that the rookie Storm Johnson will be the starter by the end of the year. I like what I've seen from him. And Toby is not that talented IMO.

 

Big , shifty and can catch out of the backfield.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3s0whU5E9s

[BigMilk 40]

I actually think that the rookie Storm Johnson will be the starter by the end of the year. I like what I've seen from him. And Toby is not that talented IMO.

 

Storm Johnson sounds like a porn star, not an NFL-caliver RB. DND, unless your league allows you to flex wieners.

[BoxFullofJoel 3]

 

Storm Johnson sounds like a porn star, not an NFL-caliver RB. DND, unless your league allows you to flex wieners.

 

My bad I thought you wanted to win championships, carry on

[BigMilk 40]

 

My bad I thought you wanted to win championships, carry on

 

I was kidding. But in all seriousness, if you draft Storm Johnson, you'd be wise to pair him with Reggie Bush and handcuff him with Miles Long. Unfortunately, QB Richard Earl "D!ck" Shiner has been retired since 1974, otherwise you could really build an all-porn team.

[dave32 14]

I actually think that the rookie Storm Johnson will be the starter by the end of the year. I like what I've seen from him. And Toby is not that talented IMO.

 

 

Their 7th round pick? How about he makes their roster first. I'm all for sleepers but that dude is straight hibernating.

[tanatastic 2,061]

RB2? No way. Id love him as an RB4 tho.

 

Checklist for a DND RB (to be an rb2 anyway)

 

Never done squat before? check.

 

On a crap offense with a terrible QB situation and a team that just doesnt know how to win? Check.

 

White? Check. (Really the discussion begins and ends here.)

[rholio 339]

Checklist:

 

Decent job as a back-up? Check

 

Full time starter? Check

 

Good receiver out of the backfield? Check

 

QB situation same or better than before? Check

 

Solid O-line? Check

 

Should easily be in the top 30 RBs, I'd be much happier if he was my #3 than #2.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Checklist:

 

Decent job as a back-up? Check ZERO POINTS FOR THIS.

 

Full time starter? Check SURE, SO ARE A LOT OF BUMS, BUT OK.

 

Good receiver out of the backfield? Check HES A PRO, THE LEAST HE CAN DO IS BE ABLE TO CATCH. BUT OK ILL GIVE IT.

 

QB situation same or better than before? Check SAME OR BETTER AS DOGSHIT IS STILL DOGSHIT.

 

Solid O-line? Check PUT BUMS IN FRONT OF PEYTON AND HE WILL MAKE PRO BOWLERS OUT OF THEM. BAD QBS MAKE OLINES LOOK BAD. JUST LIKE A GOOD DLINE MAKES PRO BOWL DB'S.

 

Should easily be in the top 30 RBs, I'd be much happier if he was my #3 than #2. DEF A BETTER 3.

Being a top 30 rb is like being the 9th most retarded kid in a 10 kid special ed class. Of course he will be a top 30 rb. But people think too abstractly about player position on the fantasy end of year list. They look at the 24th ranked rb and say "hey 12 teams, so the 24th rb is a bonafide rb2!". Ok yea but its not the guys that have the 24th ranked rb that win, its the guys who get lucky and have 2 or 3 of the top 10-15 rbs that win. You dont want your rb2 to play like an rb2, you want him top play like an rb1. In fact I dont draft anyone to start unless I feel they can be top 12 at their position. You dont want the guy that finished 24th among rbs on your team.

[remote controller 133]

Very comfortable! I see top 8 to 10 possibilities.

[JT 137]

Wouldn't be afraid of him as a mid-2 simply because he can play every/any down for them, catches the ball well, pass protects, all the things that keep a guy on the field in the NFL.

 

I would actually be more surprised if he was a dud then if he ended up being a Top 20 ff RB.

[rholio 339]

I've seen him ranked as high as 18th, personally have him around 21-22.

[ST_Pete 3]

I think Gerhardt is unfortunately labeled as a Great White Hope. The reality is, he has very favorable measurables. In fact, he was pretty comparable to ADP in combine stats. The guy ran a 4.5 for crying out loud.

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/toby-gerhart?id=497176

 

Obviously, there is a ton of risk there with the offense in its current situation. However, look at the other guys that are being drafted around him - they all have question marks.

[browndelivers 7]

 

I'm coming around to this strategy too. If drafting late in the first round means having to take a Montee Ball and then a Gio Bernard at the turn, I'd rather go stud WR-WR and then load up on RBs in the middle rounds and hope one of the guys you mention hits. It sucks having to settle for RB mediocrity with your first two picks, especially in a PPR.

 

See below..looks like other folks have the same idea (sorry, can't paste images). Hope it doesn't catch on, because after a few more mocks, I'm typically getting a WR corps of Marshall/Cobb/Cruz/White, plus a few late-round fliers like Randle and Cooks. That only happens if other folks are focusing mainly on RB and a few QBs.

 

https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/484329475254280192

 

https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/484329676136259584

 

https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/484330024456454144

 

https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/484330127497904130

 

https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/484330880325124096

 

https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/484331423533637632

 

Upshot:

JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB

· 1h

So if you're really trying to find a consistent, bust-free pick at a scarce position, WR is where you should look.

[Super Cubs 132]

I've seen him ranked as high as 18th, personally have him around 21-22.

 

as of 6/26/14 FFToday has him ranked 6th in projection, 10th in rankings, and 10th on their cheatsheet

[rholio 339]

 

as of 6/26/14 FFToday has him ranked 6th in projection, 10th in rankings, and 10th on their cheatsheet

 

Yeah, won't be on my team then. Good to know, thanks!

[BigMilk 40]

Silva at Rotoworld has Gerhart at 32 overall and ahead of Gio, Sankey and Alf Morris:

 

32. Toby Gerhart -- Although the Jaguars are commonly billed as Seahawks imitators, I think their offensive blueprint is Thomas Dimitroff's Falcons. They'll be a run-based team (Gerhart, Michael Turner) that transitions to building around talented young receivers Allen Robinson (Julio Jones) and Marqise Lee (Roddy White). Jags GMDave Caldwell hails from Atlanta, where Dimitroff's first order of business was to sign Turner and provide young quarterback Matt Ryan with a sustaining, foundation run game. The Jags hope to sit their young QB (Blake Bortles) for most of 2014, but I still think they want to pound the rock. In his first Falcons season, Turner handled a league-high 376 carries. Think what you want about Gerhart's talent; he's got volume steadfastly on his side.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

If you were certain gerhart would get 300 carries, isnt that as safe as it gets for a rb2? Actually i dont want his adp jumping so everyone please stop drafting him on ffc.

[Boilermaker04 11]

I like him a lot more in ppr; a whole lot more.

 

Lots if people hoping for another Hillis, I'm thinking more of a solid flex with pretty limited upside because of a lack of scoring.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I hate to do this but as a 'white-boy' playing in a skill position, i see some 'injuries' that will derail his season.

There's no mathematical formula or analytical backing of this statement. It's nothing but a pure @ss hunch.

 

I would avoid…his backup..now that's a different story. Keeping that story close to my vest.