The Brady/Moss draft strategy!

[dschddny 0]

Ok, remember 2 years ago at the end of the year how Brady and Moss were so dominant and any fantasy team fortunate enough to have both of them was pretty much considered unbeatable? Almost all of us would have gladly traded our top 2 guys for Brady and Moss at that point.

 

Last year there was practically no way to draft both, Brady was a first round lock usually early first, and Moss was often taken in the first as well and generally early 2nd at the latest. Of course Brady got injured and Moss then didn't do nearly as well, but.........

 

Now that Brady is considered to be healthy, and possibly undervalued after being hurt last year, I'm actually thinking of trying to draft Brady and Moss in my 10 team redraft. Let's say I get a late pick, say 9th or 10th, why not take Brady in the first and then take Moss in the 2nd? If they can do what they did 2 years ago (not necessarily so farfetched as neither of these guys were just one-hit-wonders), I could be in great shape having both.

 

Then in the 3rd and 4th I go RB, likely getting the 19th and 20th best RB's, which would be decent.

 

Thoughts?

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

my thought is, check out some mocks of your sized league. Look at late draft slots. Make 2 scenarios.

 

in scenario A, you draft Brady and Moss and RB's in rounds 3 and 4

in scenario B, you draft best available

 

see which 4some you would rather have.

 

altho my gut tells me you can get Brady in the 3rd round of 10 team leagues. I think you might be able to go RB, Moss, Brady, RB.

[kmbryant09 1]

I don't really like the strategy - too many question marks:

 

- Moss is a year older (I know he isn't on a sharp decline), but he is 32 years old...If he loses a step or even half a step, don't expect '07 numbers.

- Brady's injury...I don't mean that Brady won't be healthy, or that he'll miss time, but as we saw with Manning this past year, getting back into game shape really does take some time for QBs. In addition, I don't think the Pats will pass as much as they did in '07 because they should realize now how valuable Brady is, and they should minimize his unnecessary exposure to injury via sacks/hits.

- Let's not forget how "unsportsmanlike" the Pats were in 2007, running up scores with Brady throwing ridiculous amounts WELL into the 4th quarter of blowout games. I heard a stat somewhere (no link), and I don't remember exactly what it was, but Brady threw something like 11 TDs in the 4th quarter of a game in which the Patriots were up by 3 TDs already. That is just ridiculous, and to me it showed no class (mostly from Belichick)...Even IF the Pats offense repeats the success it had in 2007, I would expect better from a franchise like the Patriots.

- New Offensive Coordinator. With McDaniels gone, who knows what this offense will be. I'm not saying they will turn into a struggling offense, but maybe they focus more on the run, who knows? They brought in Fred Taylor, and have a number of capable RBs and a solid OLine.

 

All things considered, I don't think itd be smart to target these 2 together, especially in the first 2 rounds of a 10 team draft...That's early for both picks.

[gram 0]

if you got them in 2nd and 3rd pick it would be a better scenario...not 1st and 2nd though. i would do it myself for 2nd and 3rd rd.

[Super Cubs 154]

They would be a nice combo to have but that high you might have to many eggs in one basket.

[jerryskids 6,792]

I can't believe Brady would go that high coming off of his injury, seems like a reach to me. Moss, maybe 2nd round, but there several WRs I'd rather have.

[remote controller 143]

They would be a nice combo to have but that high you might have to many eggs in one basket.

How well did it work for those who tried it last year? I quoted this post because eggs and baskets came to my mind right away too.

[frank 2,305]

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[uwilose123 2]

Everybody is going to talk you out of that strategy, and it will be the same guys that made the same argument two years ago (albeit they both never went that high two years ago). I think the best spot to take that risk will be if you had a top three overall pick and took Brady in the 2nd and Moss in the early 3rd or vice versa. Picking Turner, AP, or Jones Drew locked up with Brady and Moss could be lethal if it pans out. This is all considering their current draft position with Brady borderline top five overall QB and Moss as a top five overall WR. One long bomb in the preaseason from these two will have them shooting up everyones draft board so it may not be feasible that they will even fall that far....

[uwilose123 2]

Everybody is going to talk you out of that strategy, and it will be the same guys that made the same argument two years ago (albeit they both never went that high two years ago). I think the best spot to take that risk will be if you had a top three overall pick and took Brady in the 2nd and Moss in the early 3rd or vice versa. Picking Turner, AP, or Jones Drew locked up with Brady and Moss could be lethal if it pans out. This is all considering their current draft position with Brady borderline top five overall QB and Moss as a top five overall WR. One long bomb in the preaseason from these two will have them shooting up everyones draft board so it may not be feasible that they will even fall that far....

 

Peyton and Brees will probably be taken over Brady in most drafts and the injury risk may scare some to let him fall even further...

[Yippie Skippy 0]

Brady/Moss two years ago was the exception and not the rule. I had Moss/Culpepper when they were at their peak. They led me to win my division. I got a bye. In the second round of my playoffs, the Vikings played a team where the gameplan was to run the ball (Robert Smith). Both Moss and Culpepper had below average games and I lost.

 

I have not had a QB/WR combo since. I don't count on both having good games for three games in a row during my playoffs.

 

Weeks 14-16 NE plays CAR, @BUFFALO, JAX. So add in the weather factor playing in Buffalo during December.

[We Tigers 71]

I think the best spot to take that risk will be if you had a top three overall pick and took Brady in the 2nd and Moss in the early 3rd or vice versa.

This might be doable in a 10-team league, but still might be unlikely. Moss is looking like the 4th or 5th receiver off the board in most drafts, depending on perceptions of Reggie Wayne. You'd definitely have to take Moss in the 2nd cause I don't think there's any way he'd float around to the 3rd.

 

Either way, I wouldn't do it, partly because I'm staying away from the earliest QBs this year. I think Rivers, Rodgers, and Warner give you equal or better production to Peyton and Brady this year, and can be had 1-3 rounds later. Actually, even if Moss fell to you in the second round, I'd much rather grab a Boldin, Jennings, or Colston a few picks later than Brady, or maybe take an RB in Moss's place if someone like Barber or Jacobs is still on the board.

[FantasyBowl33 0]

- I heard a stat somewhere (no link), and I don't remember exactly what it was, but Brady threw something like 11 TDs in the 4th quarter of a game in which the Patriots were up by 3 TDs already. That is just ridiculous, and to me it showed no class (mostly from Belichick)...

This stat is wrong. Brady threw only 10 4th qtr TD's total in 2007. I think he threw maybe 3 that were thrown up 21+ and those 3 were thrown with more then 8 minutes to go in the game.

[kmbryant09 1]

This stat is wrong. Brady threw only 10 4th qtr TD's total in 2007. I think he threw maybe 3 that were thrown up 21+ and those 3 were thrown with more then 8 minutes to go in the game.

 

Link?? Like I said, I don't remember the EXACT stat, but I promise it was disturbing how much the Pats ran up the score last year. How about when the Pats were up like 28 against the Dolphins, pulled Brady, Cassel comes in and throws a pick 6 with like 6:30 to play, and they put Brady back in...Not only that, but they throw the ball like 8 straight times down the field and he throws a TD

[FantasyBowl33 0]

Link?? Like I said, I don't remember the EXACT stat, but I promise it was disturbing how much the Pats ran up the score last year. How about when the Pats were up like 28 against the Dolphins, pulled Brady, Cassel comes in and throws a pick 6 with like 6:30 to play, and they put Brady back in...Not only that, but they throw the ball like 8 straight times down the field and he throws a TD

Is it really that hard to look it up. Go to NFL.com, there's your link. Why make the stuff up. I know for a fact Brady only threw 10 4th qtr TD's, and I highly doubt he threw all 10TD's up 21+.

 

As for the Miami game you didn't get one thing right.... At the start of the 4th qtr. the score was 42 -14. Brady was out of the game. Fin's scored on next series. making it 42 - 21. Cassel comes in and throws a pick 6 at the 10:30 mark making it 42-28 (14 pt lead to me, no where near 28 plus there is still 10:30 to go wth fins having momentum on their homefield) so rather then have a Cassel go out there Belichick puts in Brady who drives the Pats down in 2 minutes 19 seconds ( 5 plays , 2 pass , 2 run and 1 penalty ) and scores a TD. Brady comes out with a 21 point lead and 8+ minutes to go - oh the horror, Pats end up winning by 14.

 

I love how some people remember things.

[Jesus Christ 0]

Is it really that hard to look it up. Go to NFL.com, there's your link. Why make the stuff up. I know for a fact Brady only threw 10 4th qtr TD's, and I highly doubt he threw all 10TD's up 21+.

 

As for the Miami game you didn't get one thing right.... At the start of the 4th qtr. the score was 42 -14. Brady was out of the game. Fin's scored on next series. making it 42 - 21. Cassel comes in and throws a pick 6 at the 10:30 mark making it 42-28 (14 pt lead to me, no where near 28 plus there is still 10:30 to go wth fins having momentum on their homefield) so rather then have a Cassel go out there Belichick puts in Brady who drives the Pats down in 2 minutes 19 seconds ( 5 plays , 2 pass , 2 run and 1 penalty ) and scores a TD. Brady comes out with a 21 point lead and 8+ minutes to go - oh the horror, Pats end up winning by 14.

I love how some people remember things.

 

[edjr 6,580]

They would be a nice combo to have but that high you might have to many eggs in one basket.

 

I had Brady/Moss in 2007 and I dominated my league until the bad weather rolled in

 

I lost my undefeated season and got knocked out in the Semi finals.

[edjr 6,580]

Is it really that hard to look it up. Go to NFL.com, there's your link. Why make the stuff up. I know for a fact Brady only threw 10 4th qtr TD's, and I highly doubt he threw all 10TD's up 21+.

 

As for the Miami game you didn't get one thing right.... At the start of the 4th qtr. the score was 42 -14. Brady was out of the game. Fin's scored on next series. making it 42 - 21. Cassel comes in and throws a pick 6 at the 10:30 mark making it 42-28 (14 pt lead to me, no where near 28 plus there is still 10:30 to go wth fins having momentum on their homefield) so rather then have a Cassel go out there Belichick puts in Brady who drives the Pats down in 2 minutes 19 seconds ( 5 plays , 2 pass , 2 run and 1 penalty ) and scores a TD. Brady comes out with a 21 point lead and 8+ minutes to go - oh the horror, Pats end up winning by 14.

 

I love how some people remember things.

 

I smell toast!

[KSB2424 3,148]

I hate strategies like this, period. I hate person A/B/C strategy. I hate WR/RB/RB/QB (or whatever) strategy. It puts to many confinments on a draft.

 

You created your cheatsheet via projections as a guide. You tier it up so you can get max value. When it is your pick you take the best guy in the top tier at a position you need. It really is that simple.

 

Making up stratagies like this only paints yourself into a corner.

 

Keep It Simple Stupid

[stonewall 647]

You would be better off with Warner/Fitz......

 

BTW, as someone mentioned above, always beware of reaching for QB's coming off MAJOR knee surgury....ie Palmer, Manning. They nearly always struggle.

[Jesus Christ 0]

I smell toast!

 

actually smells more like burnt toast!

[kmbryant09 1]

Is it really that hard to look it up. Go to NFL.com, there's your link. Why make the stuff up. I know for a fact Brady only threw 10 4th qtr TD's, and I highly doubt he threw all 10TD's up 21+.

 

As for the Miami game you didn't get one thing right.... At the start of the 4th qtr. the score was 42 -14. Brady was out of the game. Fin's scored on next series. making it 42 - 21. Cassel comes in and throws a pick 6 at the 10:30 mark making it 42-28 (14 pt lead to me, no where near 28 plus there is still 10:30 to go wth fins having momentum on their homefield) so rather then have a Cassel go out there Belichick puts in Brady who drives the Pats down in 2 minutes 19 seconds ( 5 plays , 2 pass , 2 run and 1 penalty ) and scores a TD. Brady comes out with a 21 point lead and 8+ minutes to go - oh the horror, Pats end up winning by 14.

 

I love how some people remember things.

 

 

Uhhhhh - Brady finally came out when they were up 42-7, not 42-14, the INT returned made the score 42-21 with 10 minutes...21 point lead in the 4th quarter means you have to put ur starting QB back in the game? AND you have the ball?? AND you need to throw the ball down the field instead of taking time off the clock??

 

As for the stat that I threw out there, if you read my post you'd see I forewarned everyone that I did not know the EXACT stat, nor did I have the link, but it was something like what I said. I did some research, and Brady threw 10 TDs in the 4th quarter like you said, and 5 of which the Pats had a 3 TD lead, including scores of 31-7, 37-13, 42-21, and 35-0. The stat that I think I was referring to was the # of TDs (in general, not the 4th quarter), that Brady threw up by more than 14 or 17+ points. I didn't count, but Brady threw like 10-12 TDs in the 3rd quarter, including approx 5-6 in the last few minutes with more than a 2 TD lead. That'd be the 10 or 11 TDs that I was talking about in the original post. Sorry you took it so literally, but I thought I was clear that I wasn't exactly sure of the statistic.

 

Back to the point though, that was a miracle season for the Pats...I'm not taking anything away from Brady or the Pats, cause they kicked ass that year, but if anyone is counting on Brady to throw 40-50 TDs again with Moss catching 20 again, and they draft them accordingly, I think they are going to be severely dissapointed....Just my $.02

[Jesus Christ 0]

Uhhhhh - Brady finally came out when they were up 42-7, not 42-14, the INT returned made the score 42-21 with 10 minutes...21 point lead in the 4th quarter means you have to put ur starting QB back in the game? AND you have the ball?? AND you need to throw the ball down the field instead of taking time off the clock??

 

21 points with 10 minutes to go in the NFL could be turned around in no time. Plus your acting as though they came out and threw the ball 15 straight times. As the FB33 said, that drive consisted of 2 pass plays and 2 runs. Regardless, I'm glad as heck that the team I root for has a coach that goes for the jugular.

 

 

As for your main point. I don't think anyone is expecting 40 -50 TD's again, that's just absurd for anyone to think Moss or Brady will equal those 2007 totals. With that said, I don't think hoping for 30 pass Tds from Brady and 15 TD's from Moss is absurd. I'd be happy with those possible numbers with my Fantasy QB and WR.

[kmbryant09 1]

21 points with 10 minutes to go in the NFL could be turned around in no time. Plus your acting as though they came out and threw the ball 15 straight times. As the FB33 said, that drive consisted of 2 pass plays and 2 runs. Regardless, I'm glad as heck that the team I root for has a coach that goes for the jugular.

As for your main point. I don't think anyone is expecting 40 -50 TD's again, that's just absurd for anyone to think Moss or Brady will equal those 2007 totals. With that said, I don't think hoping for 30 pass Tds from Brady and 15 TD's from Moss is absurd. I'd be happy with those possible numbers with my Fantasy QB and WR.

 

Oh c'mon, don't try and cover up that team by saying they "went for the jugular". You and I both know they ran up the score on multiple occasions. And I never ever ever root for a player to get injured, and I have nothing against Tom Brady (even as a Colts fan I have a ton of respect for him), but for the first time in my life I was glad to see Brady go down for the year. It's unfortunate it had to happen to him, but Bill Bellichick had it coming...There's something called integrity and respect in this league, and he just simply doesn't have it. Karma anyone?

 

As for the Brady/Moss draft strategy - 30 TDs from Brady is very reasonable, 15 from Moss is optimistic but definitely reasonable as well...But what happens if they don't put up those #'s, if the Pats offense isn't one of the best, there's SOOO many questionmarks. In addition, nearly every team that owened both of them 2 years ago (when they were even more unstoppable), still lost their league because of 1 or 2 bad weeks. NE plays @ Buffalo in Week 15, on Dec. 20th...Sounds like a matchup to avoid, member Eli Manning throwing there this past year or the year before (I forget). He went like 8-25 because of the wind and snow. Thats not something I want BOTH of my first 2 picks experiencing come playoff time.

 

Why not take Fitz or Calvin and hope for 13-15 TDs from one of them, or draft Manning or Warner and expect 30 TDs from them? That way you minimize the risk.

[FantasyBowl33 0]

Oh c'mon, don't try and cover up that team by saying they "went for the jugular". You and I both know they ran up the score on multiple occasions. And I never ever ever root for a player to get injured, and I have nothing against Tom Brady (even as a Colts fan I have a ton of respect for him), but for the first time in my life I was glad to see Brady go down for the year. It's unfortunate it had to happen to him, but Bill Bellichick had it coming...There's something called integrity and respect in this league, and he just simply doesn't have it. Karma anyone?

 

As for the Brady/Moss draft strategy - 30 TDs from Brady is very reasonable, 15 from Moss is optimistic but definitely reasonable as well...But what happens if they don't put up those #'s, if the Pats offense isn't one of the best, there's SOOO many questionmarks. In addition, nearly every team that owened both of them 2 years ago (when they were even more unstoppable), still lost their league because of 1 or 2 bad weeks. NE plays @ Buffalo in Week 15, on Dec. 20th...Sounds like a matchup to avoid, member Eli Manning throwing there this past year or the year before (I forget). He went like 8-25 because of the wind and snow. Thats not something I want BOTH of my first 2 picks experiencing come playoff time.

 

Why not take Fitz or Calvin and hope for 13-15 TDs from one of them, or draft Manning or Warner and expect 30 TDs from them? That way you minimize the risk.

I don't see throwing a pass with 10 minutes left as running the score up. 21 pts has been made up many a times. As a Colt fan you should know that. I know Cleo Lemon isn't Peyton Manning but nonetheless, after the come from behind win the Colts gave the Pats in the AFCC game the year prior the motto was 60 minutes, they were playing gung ho all year in 2007. The only game I had a real issue with was teh Redskins game. Other then that, i had no issue with howBB/McDaniels called those games in 2007.

 

As far as fantasy and as a Patriot fan, I would never take that combo of Brady/Moss, too many eggs/one basket. A bad week for Brady/Moss woud not only mean a bad fantasy week but my Pats may take a loss to. I have Manning in my keeper league, i'm hoping to swing a WR who can grab 12-15.

[kmbryant09 1]

I don't see throwing a pass with 10 minutes left as running the score up. 21 pts has been made up many a times. As a Colt fan you should know that. I know Cleo Lemon isn't Peyton Manning but nonetheless, after the come from behind win the Colts gave the Pats in the AFCC game the year prior the motto was 60 minutes, they were playing gung ho all year in 2007. The only game I had a real issue with was teh Redskins game. Other then that, i had no issue with howBB/McDaniels called those games in 2007.

 

As far as fantasy and as a Patriot fan, I would never take that combo of Brady/Moss, too many eggs/one basket. A bad week for Brady/Moss woud not only mean a bad fantasy week but my Pats may take a loss to. I have Manning in my keeper league, i'm hoping to swing a WR who can grab 12-15.

I know we can sit here and argue forever, but at least we agree on the Brady/Moss strategy being very risky.

 

The point is: Most Patriot fans saw what the '07 Pats did as fair, had no problem with it, and really enjoyed it (I've actually talked to some die-hard Pats fans who mentioned how disrespectful it was to run up the score like that).

 

Non-Patriot fans saw what they were doing as disrespectful, especially because of the reputation BB has. The SpyGate thing or w/e (varied opinions, I know) puts a bad taint on their franchise, and lets not forget how BB snubbed Mangini after the Jets beat the Pats (very disrespectful), then later when the Pats beat the Jets BB was all friendly shaking hands. He also pretty much ignored Tony Dungy in one of the Colts/Pats matchups (forget which one)...Bottom line is regardless of how you may feel about running up the score 2 years ago, BB is just not a respectful guy when it comes to the rest of the league

[kutulu 1,676]

As a Brady/Welker owner in one league and just a Wes owner in another, I likes the bold talk coming from Moss and Wes about the offense this year.

[Dragan187 7]

for whatever it's worth...here's a 12 team mock i just got doing using this draft strategy. I was the 12th team, drafted Moss and Brady back to back. Standard scoring and mandatory tight end got me this... (keep in mind, I wasn't paying attention to bye weeks, just skilled players by position)

 

 

QB Brady, Big Ben

RB Reggie Bush, LJ, and knowshon moreno

WR Moss, Anthony Gonzalez, Cotchery

TE Owen Daniels

K who cares?

D Minnesota

[fanfootballtn 33]

After the comments from Brady and his DR, now what?

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/footbal..._Doctor_s_note/

[jgcrawfish 232]

two years ago the worst ff owner in my league (who happens to be the commish) fockin lucked his way into a championship on the backs of Brady/Moss. Last year I was so hell bent on him not getting that same combo that I had convinced myself that if both Moss and Brady were available when I was drafting at 8th (he was drafting 10th in 10 teamer) I would take one even though I didn't really want either of them at that spot just to keep him from possibly getting both. Luckily Brady went the pick before me and sure enough he took Moss at 10th, followed by Romo on the comeback pick. He damned sure would have taken both if they were left there.

 

Normally, that's not a strategy I like to employ, QB+WR on same team. However, last year, it worked out for me like that as well, with Cutler and Marshall. There's risk if they go cold, but there's definite reward if they're on. With that in mind, there's only a couple of combo's I'd try it with, Brady/Moss and Manning/Wayne come to mind, and this year Brady/Moss will probably be available at the right price to try it. Somebody is going to come out with a high pick (1,2 or 3 maybe) combo of something like ADP/Brady/Moss or MJD/Brady/Moss and possibly have an off-the-charts team.

[nordwave 2]

combo of something like ADP/Brady/Moss

 

I think Moss will tend to go in the early part of the 2nd round, so I don't see too many people getting this triple threat. I prefer to spread my risk around. Take Moss if you can, and if you have him, scoop up other talent in rounds 3 and 4 then take any QB named Matt* in 5 or 6.

 

*exception: Leinhart

[jgcrawfish 232]

I think Moss will tend to go in the early part of the 2nd round, so I don't see too many people getting this triple threat. I prefer to spread my risk around. Take Moss if you can, and if you have him, scoop up other talent in rounds 3 and 4 then take any QB named Matt* in 5 or 6.

 

*exception: Leinhart

 

i think there's still going to be people scared off by last year and by Brady's injury. It was clear that Moss wasn't nearly the threat with Cassel that he was with Brady.

 

Oh:

Matt Cassel

Matt Ryan

Matt Hasselbeck

Matt Stafford

Matt Schaub

*Matt Leinhart

 

That's a whole lot of Matt choices for rounds 5-6. Fock, i didn't realize that >15% of NFL starting QB's are named Matt!!!

[frank 2,305]

Somebody is going to come out with a high pick (1,2 or 3 maybe) combo of something like ADP/Brady/Moss or MJD/Brady/Moss and possibly have an off-the-charts team.

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[fanfootballtn 33]

Somebody is going to come out with a high pick (1,2 or 3 maybe) combo of something like ADP/Brady/Moss or MJD/Brady/Moss and possibly have an off-the-charts team.

 

This is exactly what I am hoping for. I have the last pick of the draft and my keeper is MJD. Can you say ?

[American Bad Ass 0]

I agree that pair are risky, but the point that's being missed is that we are talking about a pair from NE. Weather for FF Playoffs is cold, windy, and downright nasty at times. Couple that with the likely possibility of playing at Pitt (not any nicer weather). I think if we were talking about a dome team or CA/FL pair the risks could be lower. Pairs can be okay, but not when you are looking at drafting them in the first few rounds of you draft. Impose more strategy and try and hit on a pair later in the draft

[nordwave 2]

I agree that pair are risky, but the point that's being missed is that we are talking about a pair from NE. Weather for FF Playoffs is cold, windy, and downright nasty at times.

 

Right. People remember the crazy stats that Brady/Moss owners put up in 2007, but they forget that a LOT of those owners were knocked out of the FF playoffs when Brady/Moss had a bad week.

 

If Brady has a bad week, it follows that Moss will have a bad week too. They are tied together. But you could possibly have offset Brady's bad week by owning Andre Johnson instead of Moss.

 

Sure, Brady and AJ could have bad weeks at the same time - but it is statistically less likely to happen in the exact same week since they are not dependent upon one another.