Who will be this years Matt Forte?

[tanatastic 2,061]

Its almost a guarantee that any talk of a consensus top rb being a bust will earn flames and laughs all around. But deep down we all know that any rb can be a bust and even without injury, just suck and kill ur team. Peopel I talk to would bet their life that Chris Johnson posts top 3 stats barring injury but thats far from a good bet. Any forte owners remember how happy they were to land him a pick or 2 later than expected? So heres the question...who will be this years forte? Here are my 2 prime suspects.

 

1. CJ- Sorry guys, vets kno that in the nfl anything can happen. Mad about contract? Woman problems? GOT his contract and loses the killer instinct to run wild? Pick your excuse, no such thing as a sure thing rb in this game and if he posts 1050 yds and 5 tds, I wouldnt say that the sky was falling.

 

2. Ray rice- He didnt even score many tds last year altho I usually say that tds are fluky and streaky and that tough yards are more of a tell for skill and potential. But still, we are all high on him this year but most years are only a broken tackle or a goal line play away from looking much worse on paper.

 

CJ is my pick. I like ADP followed by MJD THEN CJ.

[Shock6822 0]

I don't know that any of the top 5 will be true busts, but I won't be surprised if Steven Jackson and Mendenhall don't perform up to ADP (6th and 9th or so)

[Riddlen 1]

AP wont bust but he will perform to RB11-15 levels

[RosterDoc 0]

Its a really good question...

 

I think Maurice Jones-Drew is a candidate for a Forte like season. The Jaguars didnt do annnnnything in the off season to help their offense out. Defenses will be stacking up against the run, and Jones-Drew wore down at the end of last season. I think the Jags are a sinking ship and Jones-Drew could go down with them.

 

I could see Chris Johnson coming back to reality but I cant see less than 10 TDs.

 

ADP - He's the safest pick in fantasy. No way he doesnt end the season with top 5 numbers.

 

Ray Rice - Willis McGahee stole 11 TDs last year. Now that Rice will get more PT, that number will shift. Plus in PPR leagues Rice is a sure thing.

 

 

 

Its almost a guarantee that any talk of a consensus top rb being a bust will earn flames and laughs all around. But deep down we all know that any rb can be a bust and even without injury, just suck and kill ur team. Peopel I talk to would bet their life that Chris Johnson posts top 3 stats barring injury but thats far from a good bet. Any forte owners remember how happy they were to land him a pick or 2 later than expected? So heres the question...who will be this years forte? Here are my 2 prime suspects.

 

1. CJ- Sorry guys, vets kno that in the nfl anything can happen. Mad about contract? Woman problems? GOT his contract and loses the killer instinct to run wild? Pick your excuse, no such thing as a sure thing rb in this game and if he posts 1050 yds and 5 tds, I wouldnt say that the sky was falling.

 

2. Ray rice- He didnt even score many tds last year altho I usually say that tds are fluky and streaky and that tough yards are more of a tell for skill and potential. But still, we are all high on him this year but most years are only a broken tackle or a goal line play away from looking much worse on paper.

 

CJ is my pick. I like ADP followed by MJD THEN CJ.

 

 

 

[kmbryant09 1]

Its a really good question...

 

I think Maurice Jones-Drew is a candidate for a Forte like season. The Jaguars didnt do annnnnything in the off season to help their offense out. Defenses will be stacking up against the run, and Jones-Drew wore down at the end of last season. I think the Jags are a sinking ship and Jones-Drew could go down with them.

 

I could see Chris Johnson coming back to reality but I cant see less than 10 TDs.

 

ADP - He's the safest pick in fantasy. No way he doesnt end the season with top 5 numbers.

 

Ray Rice - Willis McGahee stole 11 TDs last year. Now that Rice will get more PT, that number will shift. Plus in PPR leagues Rice is a sure thing.

I think this is a very good answer. I wouldn't even put AP at 100%, but he's probably the "safe" pick.

 

I think Ray Rice has too much talent, and is still too young to experience a severe drop in play, especially in an up-and-coming offense. Even WITH McGahee vulturing 11 TD's, he was top3 in PPR...and he didn't even play much the first few weeks. If McGahee (who is old and injury prone), isn't as much of a factor this year, I actually think Ray Rice could be HUGE...Like 1,400/12 and 65/550/4 HUGE.

[lexdizzle 1]

Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, LT.... they were all ranked pretty high last year especially in PPR. There is no way to really tell, but if i had to guess i would pick CJ. I just dont see how he could live up to last year. He had 358 carries and 50 receptions, thats gotta take a toll on his body, plus I dont' see them feeding the ball as much as last year. Ray Rice might be a candidate granted he had a really good year whose to say they dont brink back Mcgahee in the mix? Put the top ten RB on a dart board and throw....

[kmbryant09 1]

Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, LT.... they were all ranked pretty high last year especially in PPR. There is no way to really tell, but if i had to guess i would pick CJ. I just dont see how he could live up to last year. He had 358 carries and 50 receptions, thats gotta take a toll on his body, plus I dont' see them feeding the ball as much as last year. Ray Rice might be a candidate granted he had a really good year whose to say they dont brink back Mcgahee in the mix? Put the top ten RB on a dart board and throw....

I think the consensus surrounding Baltimore is that McGahee played a HUGE role last season. He had 125 touches (not all that many), but had 14 TOUCHDOWNS!!!!! Many of which (probably 9 or more), were vultured from Ray Rice. I could see Mcgahee with another 100-125 touches this season, but I doubt the TD's are split 14/8 in favor of Mcgahee.

 

Despite all that, Rice was a top3 RB in PPR leagues. If Mcgahee gets injured, or doesn't play quite the role near the goalline, Ray Rice could finish as the #1 RB this season.

[soopacee 0]

jamaal charles

 

 

everyone is high on this guy, i just see him falling on his face

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

there were way too many great rookie RB's in 2008 that we were bound to see some of them fall off in 2009. I avoided all of them.

 

Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton...

 

obviously CJ2K played nuts and J-Stew played very well but I just felt avoiding those sophomore backs was the way to go.

 

This isn't really the case this year. I don't see much reason to avoid Moreno.

 

As far as guys being predicted in the top 4-5, I dont think we have a Forte. You have to remember Forte was a sophomore coming off a very good rookie season. We didn't see him build up to his status, it just sort of happened all at once.

 

As much as it pains me to say it, I think Shonn Greene could be the disappointment. he is going very high based on a very small sample size and his offensive line.

[famousb 11]

only 1 RB in history has had back to back 1800+ rushing yd seasons.

take from that what you will, but I wouldn't spend a top3 pick on CJ w/o plans on trading him asap...

 

also, Forte was merely a victim of the overhyped 2nd year RB syndrome, and was stuck on a bad offense. Those are two other key indicators to look for when trying to decide which top5-10 RBs won't live up to their ADP.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

only 1 RB in history has had back to back 1800+ rushing yd seasons.

take from that what you will, but I wouldn't spend a top3 pick on CJ w/o plans on trading him asap...

 

 

How many RBs have had one 1,800+ season?

 

I don't think Johnson would need the repeat last season's ridiculous stats (or really come all that close) to finish as a top 3 RB.

 

There have only been 18 other seasons where some one has eclipsed 1,800 yards:

 

1 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 2,105 1984

2 Jamal Lewis Baltimore Ravens 2,066 2003

3 Barry Sanders Detroit Lions 2,053 1997

4 Terrell Davis Denver Broncos 2,008 1998

5 O.J. Simpson Buffalo Bills 2,003 1973

6 Earl Campbell Houston Oilers 1,934 1980

T7 Ahman Green Green Bay Packers 1,883 2003

T7 Barry Sanders Detroit Lions 1,883 1994

9 Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks 1,880 2005

10 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns 1,863 1963

11 Tiki Barber New York Giants 1,860 2005

12 Ricky Williams Miami Dolphins 1,853 2002

13 Walter Payton Chicago Bears 1,852 1977

14 Jamal Anderson Atlanta Falcons 1,846 1998

15 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 1,821 1986

16 O.J. Simpson Buffalo Bills 1,817 1975

17 LaDainian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers 1,815 2006

18 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 1,808 1983

 

Dickerson has done it 3 times and OJ twice - which means only 16 backs (if you include Johnson) have ever reached that threshold. So why would it matter if Johnson failed to have back to back 1,800 yard seasons. Odds are that no back is going to break 1,800 yards next year.

[mobb_deep 919]

Matt Forte again.

[stonewall 647]

I don't know.......ask Cara

[greggorymac 0]

there were way too many great rookie RB's in 2008 that we were bound to see some of them fall off in 2009. I avoided all of them.

 

Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton...

 

obviously CJ2K played nuts and J-Stew played very well but I just felt avoiding those sophomore backs was the way to go.

 

This isn't really the case this year. I don't see much reason to avoid Moreno.

 

As far as guys being predicted in the top 4-5, I dont think we have a Forte. You have to remember Forte was a sophomore coming off a very good rookie season. We didn't see him build up to his status, it just sort of happened all at once.

 

As much as it pains me to say it, I think Shonn Greene could be the disappointment. he is going very high based on a very small sample size and his offensive line.

 

The only way Shonn Greene will not perform is if he suffers an injury that sidelines him.

 

I like the Jamal Charles call, as well as Knowshon.

[famousb 11]

How many RBs have had one 1,800+ season?

 

I don't think Johnson would need the repeat last season's ridiculous stats (or really come all that close) to finish as a top 3 RB.

 

There have only been 18 other seasons where some one has eclipsed 1,800 yards:

 

1 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 2,105 1984

2 Jamal Lewis Baltimore Ravens 2,066 2003

3 Barry Sanders Detroit Lions 2,053 1997

4 Terrell Davis Denver Broncos 2,008 1998

5 O.J. Simpson Buffalo Bills 2,003 1973

6 Earl Campbell Houston Oilers 1,934 1980

T7 Ahman Green Green Bay Packers 1,883 2003

T7 Barry Sanders Detroit Lions 1,883 1994

9 Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks 1,880 2005

10 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns 1,863 1963

11 Tiki Barber New York Giants 1,860 2005

12 Ricky Williams Miami Dolphins 1,853 2002

13 Walter Payton Chicago Bears 1,852 1977

14 Jamal Anderson Atlanta Falcons 1,846 1998

15 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 1,821 1986

16 O.J. Simpson Buffalo Bills 1,817 1975

17 LaDainian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers 1,815 2006

18 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 1,808 1983

 

Dickerson has done it 3 times and OJ twice - which means only 16 backs (if you include Johnson) have ever reached that threshold. So why would it matter if Johnson failed to have back to back 1,800 yard seasons. Odds are that no back is going to break 1,800 yards next year.

Doc, part of my point was by default, CJ is going to "disappoint". So many people are going to expect him to put up 2500 combined and 16 TDs that if he "only" finishes in the top3 that they are going to feel like he was a bust.

I think it's fair to project CJ at 1800 combined and maybe 10-12 tds, which is still pretty dang good - but that'll be pretty much like Matt Forte from '08 to '09. Still top12 in PPR, but not top3 like expected.

[Cara 0]

I don't know.......ask Cara

 

 

I will be posting my positional busts soon, maybe in the next 3 weeks. I posted some on a message board in a league I am in and was nearly laughed out of the league..... We shall see.

[stonewall 647]

I will be posting my positional busts soon, maybe in the next 3 weeks.

 

 

Looking forward to it..........

[RosterDoc 0]

Charles is the biggest question mark. Lots of talent but his own team screwed him. Thomas Jones will vulture a ton of TDs, and Dexter McCluster will be a jack of all trades taking away some more touches.

 

KC plays such an easy schedule this year and should be a lot better on offense. Charles will be valuable yardage wise, but I don't see him getting a lot of TDs.

 

Should Charles ever wind up a 25 touch per game type guy his value goes through the roof.

 

Looking forward to it..........

 

 

 

[Houston Texans 10]

 

I think Maurice Jones-Drew is a candidate for a Forte like season. The Jaguars didnt do annnnnything in the off season to help their offense out. Defenses will be stacking up against the run, and Jones-Drew wore down at the end of last season. I think the Jags are a sinking ship and Jones-Drew could go down with them.

You don't think defenses stacked against the run last year? I'm not sure how you can say MJD "wore down" at the end of last year. In the last 4 games, he had 90 touches (79 rush/11 rec) for 409 total yards (314 rush/95 rec) and 3 TDs. That would equate to 360 touches (316 rush/44 rec) for 1636 total yards (1256 rush/380 rec) and 12 TDs over a full season. That would have made him the #5 FF RB last year, instead of #3. I don't think I'd call that "wearing down."

 

I could see Chris Johnson coming back to reality but I cant see less than 10 TDs.

 

Here's your answer, kind of. Johnson's numbers HAVE to drop. Johnson had 408 touches last year (358 rush/50 rec). It would be almost impossible for him to get close to that number of touches again. Also, he scored 16 TDs last year. Half of them were from 50+ yards out!!! (with 2 more coming from 25+ yards out). While Johnson's big play ability is part of what makes him dangerous and valuable in FF, to expect him to duplicate that many long TDs is crazy. Finally, Johnson had incredibly high YPC average and YPR average (5.6 & 10.1, respectively). If you drop those to more reasonable numbers, say 5.0 YPC and 8.0 YPR, his FF numbers will drop.

 

So, if you drop his touches to a more reasonable number (say 352-310 rush, 42 rec) with a more reasonable YPC (5.0) and YPR (8.0), you get 1886 total yards (623 less than last year). If you drop his long TDs (25+ yards) from 10 to 5, you have him with 11 total TDs. So, 1886 yards and 11 TDs would have made him the 4th FF RB in 2009, which is still quite good, but not the run-away #1 RB that he is being ranked/projected as. You will probably get comparable production from RBs like ADP, MJD, Rice, Gore, and maybe SJax (if he can score a few more TDs).

[We Tigers 71]

Steven Jackson's back surgery makes him the biggest first round risk, and I say this as a Jackson owner. I've tempered my concerns a bit because it looks like the Rams have done the same, doing absolutely nothing to get him a decent backup in the draft or free agency. Still worries me a bit, though.

 

Of the top 4 backs, I don't really see a Forte--all have good YPC and are on teams with decent or improving offensive lines (I'd say only Minnesota's is subpar, and Peterson doesn't need more than subpar). In hindsight, Forte's 3.9 ypc and the Bears' degrading o-line should have been warning signs. If I have to pick on, I'd say Rice is the biggest risk because of his lack of track record, the potential changes to the Ravens offense with the addition of Boldin, and his low TDs. If there's not a shift away from McGahee, Rice may still be in the position of having half the scores of Peterson, MJD, or CJ, which puts him a little more at risk if for some reason the yardage isn't there on a given week. I still think he'll have a great season, but each of the other guys has multiple years of success, double-digit scores, and career YPC averages over 4.7, so Rice gets the short straw almost by default.

[BRANDON ROSS 0]

I think Mendenhall could be a disappointment this year. The Steelers o-line isn't great, and without Rothlisberger available early on defense will focus on stopping the run. I own him in my dynasty league so I hope this isn't the case, but I remain skeptical.

[RosterDoc 0]

MJD?? What guy were you watching?? Lets break down the stats when it counts...the fantasy playoffs weeks 11-16

 

Week 11 - Buffalo 25 rushes - 66 yards

Week 12 - @ San Fran 15 rushes - 75 yards

Week 13 - Houston 24 rushes - 76 yards

Week 14 - Miami 18 rushes - 59 yards

Week 15 - Indy 27 rushes - 110 yards

Week 16 - @ NE 18 rushes - 63 yards

 

Youre telling me thats a guy that didnt wear down? MJD had a whopping 3.5 yards per carry during the 6 most crucial weeks of the year. Receptions you say? in those 6 weeks he totaled 20 receptions for 148 yards

 

Jacksonville didnt do jack to help out the offense in the off season which means you can expect more of the same at the end of this season. They have the most predictable offense in sports.... MJD run....MJD screen....Sims-Walker drop....

 

MJD is a definite candidate for the Matt Forte of 2010.

 

quote name='Houston Texans' date='25 June 2010 - 07:34 PM' timestamp='1277523140' post='4249862']

You don't think defenses stacked against the run last year? I'm not sure how you can say MJD "wore down" at the end of last year. In the last 4 games, he had 90 touches (79 rush/11 rec) for 409 total yards (314 rush/95 rec) and 3 TDs. That would equate to 360 touches (316 rush/44 rec) for 1636 total yards (1256 rush/380 rec) and 12 TDs over a full season. That would have made him the #5 FF RB last year, instead of #3. I don't think I'd call that "wearing down."

 

 

 

[Gepetto 1,001]

Last 5 weeks of 2009 RB Points per Game Statistics PPR

 

 1. Chris Johnson TEN 5 5 141 610 5 25 17 209 1 134.9 27.0 
2. Jerome Harrison CLE 5 5 123 605 5 19 13 104 2 125.9 25.2 
3. Jamaal Charles KC 5 5 112 714 5 20 14 82 0 123.6 24.7 
4. Frank Gore SF 5 5 101 477 4 26 16 172 0 104.9 21.0 
5. Adrian Peterson MIN 5 5 84 299 6 23 16 203 0 102.2 20.4 
6. Jonathan Stewart CAR 5 3 102 589 4 8 5 36 1 97.5 19.5 
7. Ray Rice BAL 5 5 87 518 1 27 17 120 0 86.8 17.4 
8. Knowshon Moreno DEN 5 3 86 259 4 17 12 117 1 79.6 15.9 
9. Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 5 5 103 390 2 14 12 101 1 79.1 15.8 
10. Fred Jackson BUF 5 5 94 461 0 17 14 108 1 76.9 15.4 
11. Joseph Addai IND 4 4 59 245 3 14 11 80 0 61.5 15.4 
12. Thomas Jones NYJ 5 5 116 443 5 2 1 -2 0 75.1 15.0 
13. Ryan Grant GB 5 5 73 363 6 2 2 7 0 75.0 15.0 
14. Kevin Smith DET 2 2 37 144 1 5 4 48 0 29.2 14.6 
15. Rashard Mendenhall PIT 5 4 84 324 3 14 9 120 0 71.4 14.3 
16. Pierre Thomas NO 4 3 31 145 1 21 19 167 0 56.2 14.1 

[#1LionFan 0]

How many RBs have had one 1,800+ season?

 

I don't think Johnson would need the repeat last season's ridiculous stats (or really come all that close) to finish as a top 3 RB.

 

There have only been 18 other seasons where some one has eclipsed 1,800 yards:

 

1 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 2,105 1984

2 Jamal Lewis Baltimore Ravens 2,066 2003

3 Barry Sanders Detroit Lions 2,053 1997

4 Terrell Davis Denver Broncos 2,008 1998

5 O.J. Simpson Buffalo Bills 2,003 1973

6 Earl Campbell Houston Oilers 1,934 1980

T7 Ahman Green Green Bay Packers 1,883 2003

T7 Barry Sanders Detroit Lions 1,883 1994

9 Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks 1,880 2005

10 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns 1,863 1963

11 Tiki Barber New York Giants 1,860 2005

12 Ricky Williams Miami Dolphins 1,853 2002

13 Walter Payton Chicago Bears 1,852 1977

14 Jamal Anderson Atlanta Falcons 1,846 1998

15 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 1,821 1986

16 O.J. Simpson Buffalo Bills 1,817 1975

17 LaDainian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers 1,815 2006

18 Eric Dickerson Los Angeles Rams 1,808 1983

 

Dickerson has done it 3 times and OJ twice - which means only 16 backs (if you include Johnson) have ever reached that threshold. So why would it matter if Johnson failed to have back to back 1,800 yard seasons. Odds are that no back is going to break 1,800 yards next year.

 

 

Dont forget Barry...he did it twice too!! So make that 15 backs that did it. But my fall on his face candidate is Cedric Benson. not touching him for as high a price as you will have to pay. I see owners taking him at the 9, 10, 11 spot - insane!

[stonewall 647]

But my fall on his face candidate is Cedric Benson. not touching him for as high a price as you will have to pay. I see owners taking him at the 9, 10, 11 spot - insane!

 

OK, but would you take Best before him? If so, you are indeed the #1 Lion Fan.

[jdon 28]

I like the mendenhall and benson picks best...

 

and I will say that all the Ray Rice lovers need to remember two things: 1. McGahee = still here 2. Boldin = change in offensive possibilities.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I've changed my mind on ray rice. I thought he would be a bust but now I think he could be top 3. Check it out...rice is a mirror image of last preseason c Johnson. Middle first round pick, fast and bersitile, made some plays the previous year and had a TD vulture scaring owners. Same situation. willis could be like lendale and set up ray for a monster season! Cj however I think will be a bust...too much contract negativity. He will be disgruntled or get paid and not try as hard.

[Houston Texans 10]

MJD?? What guy were you watching?? Lets break down the stats when it counts...the fantasy playoffs weeks 11-16

Who the hell has playoffs for 6 weeks? You have a 10 week season, and then 6 weeks for playoffs? That's retarded.

 

Week 11 - Buffalo 25 rushes - 66 yards

Week 12 - @ San Fran 15 rushes - 75 yards

Week 13 - Houston 24 rushes - 76 yards

Week 14 - Miami 18 rushes - 59 yards

Week 15 - Indy 27 rushes - 110 yards

Week 16 - @ NE 18 rushes - 63 yards

 

Youre telling me thats a guy that didnt wear down? MJD had a whopping 3.5 yards per carry during the 6 most crucial weeks of the year. Receptions you say? in those 6 weeks he totaled 20 receptions for 148 yards

 

Yes, I'm telling you he didn't wear down.

1197 rush yards, 395 receiving yards, 11 total TDs. That would have been MJD's stats in a 16 game season, if you take his averages from those 6 games where he "wore down" and adjust them for 16 games. HE STILL WOULD HAVE BEEN THE #7 FF RB IN 2009 WITH THOSE NUMBERS!

You call a top 7 RB "worn down?"

[RosterDoc 0]

Most of the big tournaments..RotoBowl...Wcoff etc. start playoffs in week 11 or 12 they go for longer.

 

How can you say that a guy who averaged 3.5 yards per carry and only topped 76 yards in 1 game down the stretch is a monster. I'm not saying MJD is a bad fantasy RB...he's an awesome RB.....Im simply saying.....

 

1. His body wore down at the end of last season. all those touches equaling 3.5 yards per carry is not good.

2. Jacksonville sucks horribly. David Garrard hasnt proved he can move the offense, meaning every single inch MJD gains will be tough.

3. Sims-Walker is the only "threat" through the air. MJD will draw the attention of every defender.

4. When your body is getting pounded like that year after year you are way more likely to get injured or lose a step.

 

There's definitely a chance that he lets fantasy owners down last year. I'm not crazy....he'll still end the year with good numbers and I wouldnt let him past 5th in a fantasy draft.....but I think his season will be some monster games where he gets 150 total yards and 3 TDs....mixed in with some of those 75 yard games that ended last year. Its not MJDs fault...his team blows and did nothing to help themselves.

 

 

Who the hell has playoffs for 6 weeks? You have a 10 week season, and then 6 weeks for playoffs? That's retarded.

 

 

 

Yes, I'm telling you he didn't wear down.

1197 rush yards, 395 receiving yards, 11 total TDs. That would have been MJD's stats in a 16 game season, if you take his averages from those 6 games where he "wore down" and adjust them for 16 games. HE STILL WOULD HAVE BEEN THE #7 FF RB IN 2009 WITH THOSE NUMBERS!

You call a top 7 RB "worn down?"

 

 

 

[Houston Texans 10]

Most of the big tournaments..RotoBowl...Wcoff etc. start playoffs in week 11 or 12 they go for longer.

Most??? I know that some of the WCOFF leagues start the playoffs in week 12, but Rotobowl starts theirs in week 14. I also think it's safe to say that most FF leagues are the more traditional type that use weeks 14-16, 15-16, or 15-17 for their playoffs.

 

How can you say that a guy who averaged 3.5 yards per carry and only topped 76 yards in 1 game down the stretch is a monster.

When did I say this?

 

This thread is about "Who will be this years Matt Forte?" MJD ain't it. Even during his "down weeks" 11-16 that you cherry picked to try to make your point, he still put up stats that would have made him the #7RB in 2009. That isn't "this years Matt Forte."

 

1. His body wore down at the end of last season. all those touches equaling 3.5 yards per carry is not good.

No, his body didn't wear down, he averaged 22 carries/game. A "worn down" RB doesn't average 22 carries/game. His YPC was down because his O-line was beat-up, and the offense & defense were bad last year.

 

2. Jacksonville sucks horribly. David Garrard hasnt proved he can move the offense, meaning every single inch MJD gains will be tough

Yes, he has. The Jags haven't been good, but Garrard isn't the only reason. Look at his stats: In the 3 years he's been a starter, he's averaged 221 passing yards/game, completed 63% of his passes, averages 7.1 YPA, throws for a little over 1 TD/game, will throw (on average) about 1 INT every 2 games, will usually kick in about 20 rushing yards/game, with a rushing TD every few games. Take his stats since he became the starter in Jax, and he has (for a 16 game season) averaged:

3536 passing yards, 17 TDs, 9 INT, 63% completion, 7.1 YPA, 300 rushing yards, 2 rush TDs

 

Let's compare them with Troy Aikman's averages, who is a Hall of Famer, and considered to be a QB who could "move the offense:"

3200 passing yards, 16 TDs, 14 INT, 62% completion, 7.0 YPA, 99 rushing yards, 1 rush TDs

 

Garrard is perfectly capable of being a good enough QB to allow MJD to continue to be the stud RB he is.

 

3. Sims-Walker is the only "threat" through the air. MJD will draw the attention of every defender.

What threats through the air does Chris Johnson have to draw the attention of defenders? What threats did Frank Gore have before last year? Passing threats aren't necessary for a RB to be great.

 

4. When your body is getting pounded like that year after year you are way more likely to get injured or lose a step.

So, we should downgrade ADP as well? He has had 240 more carries than MJD the last 3 years, and DURING WEEKS 11-16 LAST YEAR, HIS YPC WAS ONLY 3.3.

 

There's definitely a chance that he lets fantasy owners down last year.

There's a chance of that with every RB, but MJD is less likely than others, IMO.

 

I'm not crazy....he'll still end the year with good numbers and I wouldnt let him past 5th in a fantasy draft.....but I think his season will be some monster games where he gets 150 total yards and 3 TDs....mixed in with some of those 75 yard games that ended last year. Its not MJDs fault...his team blows and did nothing to help themselves.

What RB doesn't do this????

[famousb 11]

What RB doesn't do this????

 

Stephen Davis. That's why you NEVAH BENCH STEPHEN DAVIS!

[RosterDoc 0]

Rotobowl league playoffs are weeks 12-14.

 

When has Garrard moved the Jags. And why are you on the Jags bandwagon?? They stink! They did nothing to improve on offense, they still have that same crappy O-line and MJD will be fighting hard for every inch he gains.

 

All I'm saying is I think he is a candidate to flop this year.

 

[MDC 5,942]

There's risk involved in every pick, but I don't see a first round back who's going to bust like Forte did last year. Looking at the Top 4 (AP, CJ, MJD, Rice), I'd say Peterson is the safest pick and the other three all catch enough balls that there isn't much risk. I won't be shocked if any of these RBs come down from last year's stats but barring injury, I think all four of them are worthy of a first round pick.

 

I'm leary of Stephen Jackson because of his back surgery and the fact that he's handled a massive workload for a very one-diminsional offense. Mendenhall is a bit of a risk; I think Ben Roethlisberger's suspension hurts him more than anything. Those are the one two legit first rounders who I'd avoid. If I'm picking 7-8 in a 10-12 team league, I'd certainly go with Andre Johnson or Aaron Rodgers over either of those two.

 

Slightly outside the first round, I'm really on the fence about Jamaal Charles. He had such a huge season but Thomas Jones hurts his stock. I know some Jets fans who say Jones really wasn't that good last year and he was a function of the offensive line, but still ... the guy had 1,400 rushing yards last year. I think Charles could be huge but he has the potential to seriously disappoint.

 

I think Shonne Greene is among the safest picks and I'd be very happy to draft him in the late first or early 2nd. He's the featured back on a team with a great defense and dominating offensive line, and Tomlinson is thoroughly washed up. Greene should easily be good for 1,200 rushing and double-digit touchdowns, and that's the floor.

[Houston Texans 10]

When has Garrard moved the Jags. And why are you on the Jags bandwagon?? They stink! They did nothing to improve on offense, they still have that same crappy O-line and MJD will be fighting hard for every inch he gains.

 

All I'm saying is I think he is a candidate to flop this year.

I'm not on the Jags bandwagon, I just use facts, stats, and REALITY to support my beliefs and opinions. You, on the other hand, seem to think that if you just keep repeating something over and over again, that makes it true.

 

Fine, let's look at it this way: you say Garrard sucks, the Jags suck, they didn't improve their O-line, etc. Well, MJD has been a top-10 FF RB for the last two years with that same situation, so what LOGICAL reason is there to assume he'll flop?

 

Again, based on your logic (situation hasn't improved, lot of work, bad 6 week stretch between weeks 11-16), we should expect ADP to flop. His situation hasn't improved: same QB, same WRs, same O-line, etc AND he was worse than MJD during weeks 11-16 last year (3.3 YPC for ADP to 3.5 for MJD).

 

Sounds really STUPID when you look at it logically, doesn't it?

[RosterDoc 0]

Damn dude this post is about candidates to flop. I have a gut feeling that MJD could let fantasy owners down come playoff time.

 

You can pull out any stats you want, the fact is that MJD did not perform like a top 3 fantasy draft pick the most important 6 weeks of the season and I have a gut feeling owners may have the same result this year.

 

 

 

[#1LionFan 0]

OK, but would you take Best before him? If so, you are indeed the #1 Lion Fan.

 

I never said anything about taking Best over Benson, did I? But now that you mention it...although Benson will score more TDs, I could easily see Best having more total yards this year than Benson. Best's concern is injuries, but Benson is not a model of health or an ironman either. Would I rather take Benson at end of 1st/early 2nd OR Best in 4th or 5th?....ummm, I'll take Best, every draft of the week....Lion homer or not!

[#1LionFan 0]

I think Shonne Greene is among the safest picks and I'd be very happy to draft him in the late first or early 2nd. He's the featured back on a team with a great defense and dominating offensive line, and Tomlinson is thoroughly washed up. Greene should easily be good for 1,200 rushing and double-digit touchdowns, and that's the floor.

 

Well said and i agree totally. In non-ppr leagues he could end up a top 3-5 RB and you will get him much cheaper than that.

[kmbryant09 1]

Who the hell has playoffs for 6 weeks? You have a 10 week season, and then 6 weeks for playoffs? That's retarded.

 

 

 

Yes, I'm telling you he didn't wear down.

1197 rush yards, 395 receiving yards, 11 total TDs. That would have been MJD's stats in a 16 game season, if you take his averages from those 6 games where he "wore down" and adjust them for 16 games. HE STILL WOULD HAVE BEEN THE #7 FF RB IN 2009 WITH THOSE NUMBERS!

You call a top 7 RB "worn down?"

There's a big difference between "wearing down" and being a bust". Just because he would have been #7 overall with those extrapolated numbers, that's not a reflection of his entire season...Example: If player A rushes for 200 yards per game for the first 10 weeks (with a 6.0 ypc), and then rushes for 100 yards per game over the final 6 weeks (3.5 ypc) - it's safe to say that he wore down. Or at least there was a combination of wear & tear and the opposing DEF's concentrating more on the run.

 

MJD started off very strong, and even his "wearing down" numbers aren't all that bad. But he produced like a low #2 RB over the final 6 weeks. For someone who's drafted as a top3 pick - that's EXTREMELY disappointing.

 

 

And seriously - cut the crap off about Garrard being a good QB. He's a slightly more accurate, less-athletic version of Vince Young.

[Houston Texans 10]

There's a big difference between "wearing down" and being a bust". Just because he would have been #7 overall with those extrapolated numbers, that's not a reflection of his entire season...Example: If player A rushes for 200 yards per game for the first 10 weeks (with a 6.0 ypc), and then rushes for 100 yards per game over the final 6 weeks (3.5 ypc) - it's safe to say that he wore down. Or at least there was a combination of wear & tear and the opposing DEF's concentrating more on the run.

 

MJD started off very strong, and even his "wearing down" numbers aren't all that bad. But he produced like a low #2 RB over the final 6 weeks. For someone who's drafted as a top3 pick - that's EXTREMELY disappointing.

Then you have to say ADP "wore down" too. His numbers down the stretch were worse than MJDs (3.3 YPC). But if anyone were to predict ADP to flop, he would (rightfully so) get scoffed at.

 

 

And seriously - cut the crap off about Garrard being a good QB. He's a slightly more accurate, less-athletic version of Vince Young.

Show me, please, where I said Garrard is a good QB. I merely showed how another poster's assertion that Garrard "couldn't move the offense" was wrong, and it was. Garrard is an average QB, who can run Jax's offense. He is asked to keep drives moving and manage the game. He is successful at that, he had a bad year last year, that's all.

[kmbryant09 1]

Then you have to say ADP "wore down" too. His numbers down the stretch were worse than MJDs (3.3 YPC). But if anyone were to predict ADP to flop, he would (rightfully so) get scoffed at.

It's been well documented that the Vikings' OLine struggled to create any holes for most of the season. Also - it was well documented that AP started hesitating, possibly because of the poor OLine, or his fumbling problems. But none-the-less, his production did drop off as well, like MJD's. Maybe we just haven't heard much about MJD's situation, but it sounds like AP's problems weren't about him physically wearing down.

 

Also, from a FANTASY standpoint, AP didn't really fall of. His ypc were awful, but he scored 6 TD's over his final 4 games. A lot of that has to do with the effectiveness of the Vikings offense compared to Jacksonville's...Which is a MAJOR reason to trust AP this coming season over MJD.

 

I just think it's a lot more likely for MJD, and NOT AP, to physically wear down a little (misses a few games, plays a few games at 75%), and to also suffer because of his team's offensive inabilities.