S-JAX = OVER-RATED

[RedzoneMonster 102]

Ok, pls someone tell me why it seems every year SJAX is ranked as one of the elite-type RBs, with this year being no exception? Most sites have him ranked around the #7 RB and his current ADP is 1.09!?

 

Here's the way I see it:

 

He's been in the NFL 6 years and only ONCE cracked double digit rushing TDs (13 in 2006). Even with that good year he averages only 6.8 rush TDs per year.

 

Almost garaunteed to miss a couple games to injury (only started all 16 games once in his career)

 

Most importantly - his team STINKS more than ever this year. I can't imagine him NOT having the least amount of red zone opportunities than any other season in his career this year.

 

I understand he IS a talented player. That, combined with his ONE elite season in 2006, tends to make him over-rated IMO to many people. I'm really shocked to see his ADP at 1.09? I would have guessed somewhere around 2.9 - 3.5 would have been more appropriate. There are several RBs ranked behind him that I would not hesitate a second for to take ahead of SJAX (Greene, Charles, Mendenhall, Grant, maybe even Wells/Knowshon/McCoy).

 

Just my 2 cents.

[nobody 2,102]

Well being a redzone monster, I can understand that you value TDs more than yardage, but the guy is a beast between the 20's.

[crowes 1]

He is a beast... way more talent than most. Gets all the carries. Looks great without his shirt on, gotta love the hair. He's from Vegas... and he swims with sharks. Everyone knows that if he were most other places he would pretty much be Walter Payton. But he's not. And you're probably right. I love the guy and hope somehow he is the #1 RB for the next 5 yrs and he wins a superbowl. Somehow i just can't take Ryan Grant or Jon Stewart over him, but in the end I probably should. Go STEVE !!!

[Raider 84 29]

I wouldn't say he is overrated, he just plays for the Rams, who will not have many opportunities to score td's. If they are playing catchup in the second have they might have to abandon the run.

[Gladiators 1,912]

People were really high on him last year...I did some research. I can't remember the stats and don't feel like digging up the thread, but I remember that SJax's best year was 2006...the rams had 2 - 1,000 yard receivers (Holt & Bruce) and Bulger threw for like 4,200 yards and 25 TD's.

 

I can't draft SJax as early as he's going until the Ram's offense shows it can put up some points. I think they had like 17 TD's all of last season. I'm really hoping things start moving in a positive direction this year...It can't get worse, can it?

[Bert 1,109]

People were really high on him last year...I did some research. I can't remember the stats and don't feel like digging up the thread, but I remember that SJax's best year was 2006...the rams had 2 - 1,000 yard receivers (Holt & Bruce) and Bulger threw for like 4,200 yards and 25 TD's.

 

I can't draft SJax as early as he's going until the Ram's offense shows it can put up some points. I think they had like 17 TD's all of last season. I'm really hoping things start moving in a positive direction this year...It can't get worse, can it?

 

I guess every league is differnet. I drafted him with the 12th pick last year and he ended up the 10th ranked RB in our league. Seems to me he is putting up numbers close to his draft position.

[Gladiators 1,912]

I guess every league is differnet. I drafted him with the 12th pick last year and he ended up the 10th ranked RB in our league. Seems to me he is putting up numbers close to his draft position.

 

I think the 12 spot would have been good last year. That's about where I would have been comfortable drafting him. But, up until about mid-August, his ADP was 5. From the middle of August to the end of August, he dropped to around 8. I felt that was still too high for him based on the following facts:

 

1) He had been healthy for a full season only once.

2) He broke 1,100 yards rushing once

3) He had 1 stellar season, and it was the season that the Rams actually had a solid offense (see my previous post with stats).

4) The Rams weren't showing any signs going into the season last year that they were going to put up points.

 

SJax is definitely a RB1 based on talent and the fact that he's running the show, but it's also tough because the entire offense revolves around him. He's going to take a beating week in and week out.

[MDC 5,963]

If SJax fell to my 2nd round pick at 23rd overall I'd have to at least consider taking him. I doubt he'll score more than 5-6 TDs tops but barring major injury he's pretty much a lock for 1,200-1,400 total yards.

 

Honestly, I'd rather someone else take SJax before my second pick so I don't have to think about drafting him at all.

[PATSSOX 22]

Have you ever watched Sjax play??? Probably not since he does play for the Rams but the guy is arguably the best running back in the league but plays on a very bad team and still puts up great numbers.

[Gladiators 1,912]

Have you ever watched Sjax play??? Probably not since he does play for the Rams but the guy is arguably the best running back in the league but plays on a very bad team and still puts up great numbers.

 

Everyone should agree with that. Going into last season it was sort of a tough pill to swallow knowing that he only started 12 and 11 games respectively the previous 2 seasons. I know you can't predict injuries, but given the fact that the entire offense runs through him and he hadn't stayed healthy, it was tough to justify a top 6-8 pick on him. If he's only playing 11 or 12 games, you're either missing production from him needed to get TO the playoffs, or your missing production IN the playoffs. I really hope the Rams get things turned around. When they do, he could consistently approach CJ type stats.

[We Tigers 71]

In addition to being impressed by how talented he is, I just look at the numbers and see solid value. Last year, Jackson had over 100 yards in 11 of 15 games (and he was actually 10/12 in games not started by Keith Null--yech!). The Rams QBs combined for this miserable statline:

 

2970 yds

12 TD

21 INT

57.5% completion

 

I think Sam Bradford will play a bit more efficiently/better than that. Frankly, the Rams have already experienced the worst, and even when you take out the 2006 super-season--call it an outlier, if you want--Jackson has averaged 107 yds/game and .52 TDs/game. Include that season and we're at a remarkable 117 yds and .63 TDs/game. Few players in the league have been so consistent over such a long period.

 

If you really think he's going to get injured, okay, but the guy produces and has only missed 12 games in 6 seasons. Considering that he significantly outscored Forte, Slaton, LT, and Michael Turner last year--all of whom were picked ahead of him--and has such stellar averages even with a completely awful team, I think the only reason you should consider him overrated is if you're truly convinced he's a major injury risk. If he gets through preseason with no indications of problems from that back, I'm not worrying about it.

 

I expect him to put up around 1600-1700 yards and score 7-8 TDs, right in line with what he's done his whole career. My disclaimer: I own him in a keeper league, but the reasons above are why I own him.

[crowes 1]

If SJax fell to my 2nd round pick at 23rd overall I'd have to at least consider taking him. I doubt he'll score more than 5-6 TDs tops but barring major injury he's pretty much a lock for 1,200-1,400 total yards.

 

Honestly, I'd rather someone else take SJax before my second pick so I don't have to think about drafting him at all.

 

 

Am I reading this right?

[nobody 2,102]

Am I reading this right?

 

 

Forgive MDC. He plays in leagues with his neices and nephews for Del Taco money, so a 1400 yard 5 TD back doesn't interest him in the 2nd round.

[MDC 5,963]

Am I reading this right?

 

Yes - I consider him a huge injury risk with a limited ceiling. I hope someone takes him before my 2nd round pick and bumps some players I'd rather draft down my way.

[cavern 70]

i had him last year and feel i got the value i should have expected out of the #10 pick. because i had him i also tracked him and watched him all year. in my opinion, if he does not slow down this year then he is not human. he was dinged up all year long - seemingly always questionable week after week. and yet he played, week after week. and they ran him into the freaking ground. way too much work for someone so dinged up. i'm not predicting injury, but i simply cannot imagine that, once again, he'll be good enough to overcome such a cruddy situation. i'm picking at the end of the first/beginning of the 2nd. he'll only be on my team if he drops to the end of the 3rd

[Matt Mueller 146]

Owning his last year was so frustrating. Every week he was questionable with a back injury.

 

I won't own him this year, even with St. Louis' money schedule.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Uggh...I just took a look at his stats from last season. Pretty damn consistent and he played in 15 games despite the 'injury'

 

His schedule is the 2nd easiest in the league. If his line can stay healthy there might be some upside here. Get 8 tds and not 4 and he could be a great value.

 

Any word on how his back is?

[RedzoneMonster 102]

I wouldn't say he is overrated, he just plays for the Rams, who will not have many opportunities to score td's. If they are playing catchup in the second have they might have to abandon the run.

 

I should have been a bit more clear. He isn't overrrated as a player, but definitely as a FANTASY player he is. No way do you take him in the 1st rd IMO. I'd even take a WR like Moss, etc.. over him and get a guy like Grant/Mendy on the way back. The value just aint there in the 1st rd for a guy who was listed as questionable before almost every game last yr. If he were on almost any other team I'd say ok draft hin in the 1st bc his ceiling is so high, but on STL NO WAY.

[PATSSOX 22]

Yes - I consider him a huge injury risk with a limited ceiling. I hope someone takes him before my 2nd round pick and bumps some players I'd rather draft down my way.

 

 

With limited ceiling???? Every single back is a huge injury risk.

[Bert 1,109]

I'm willing to take a chance on him again at 9-16 because I believe the Rams QB play will be much improved this year. Yes I know they have a rookie starting but that's how pitiful the Rams QBs were last year.

[MDC 5,963]

With limited ceiling???? Every single back is a huge injury risk.

 

That team is so bad that I don't think they'll give SJax the opportunity to get double-digit TDs and he had what? 400 touches last year? Carrying the load like that for an abysmal team year after year is bound to wear him down eventually. The back surgery doesn't make me feel any better about it.

 

I'm looking at this from the perspective of my draft spot - 6 of 14. There's no way I'm touching SJax at 6. I'd have to consider him if he falls to 23 but I hope he doesn't because there are players I'd feel a lot better about drafting in the second round. In all likelihood someone will take a flyer earlier and I'm glad I won't be in a position to even consider him this year.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Finishes in the top 15 in total points every year despite injuries and the team sucking.

Over the past 4 years he's averaging in the top 5 in average points per game...in a PPR league, he's in the top 3 over this span.

 

Can you name another RB that has finished in the top 15 over the past 5 years????

 

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

That team is so bad that I don't think they'll give SJax the opportunity to get double-digit TDs and he had what? 400 touches last year? Carrying the load like that for an abysmal team year after year is bound to wear him down eventually. The back surgery doesn't make me feel any better about it.

 

I'm looking at this from the perspective of my draft spot - 6 of 14. There's no way I'm touching SJax at 6. I'd have to consider him if he falls to 23 but I hope he doesn't because there are players I'd feel a lot better about drafting in the second round. In all likelihood someone will take a flyer earlier and I'm glad I won't be in a position to even consider him this year.

 

 

So you would draft Turner who is now a huge injury risk (missed a few games last year based on SJax arguement) and finished behind SJAX last year in total points?

Turner won't even sniff SJAX's REC yards total.

[MDC 5,963]

So you would draft Turner who is now a huge injury risk (missed a few games last year based on SJax arguement) and finished behind SJAX last year in total points?

Turner won't even sniff SJAX's REC yards total.

 

That's right, I'd take Turner over SJax. Call it a hunch, but I think by the end of this season I'll be right.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

That's right, I'd take Turner over SJax. Call it a hunch, but I think by the end of this season I'll be right.

 

It didn't work out last year, how could you be so certain it will this year?

[madd futher mucker 36]

It could easily be argued that S Jax is one of the greatest, most complete backs ever to play the game for a poor team. Put him on the Vikes, and I'd probably take him ahead of ADP. But ADP is on the Vikes and SJax is on arguably the worst team in the NFL this year.

 

If there is such a thing as 11 in the box to stop S Jax this year, I think you'll see it. Yes, things could get any worse - a lot worse! He's the friggen only weapon the Rams have and with a very bad O-line and a rookie QB as well. Stay away from ALL Rams. Period. End of sentences!

 

MDC had it exactly right when he posted: "Yes - I consider him a huge injury risk with a limited ceiling. I hope someone takes him before my 2nd round pick and bumps some players I'd rather draft down my way."

[Gladiators 1,912]

Finishes in the top 15 in total points every year despite injuries and the team sucking.

Over the past 4 years he's averaging in the top 5 in average points per game...in a PPR league, he's in the top 3 over this span.

 

Can you name another RB that has finished in the top 15 over the past 5 years????

 

 

This has to depend on scoring and whether you're talking just RB's or all positions. You say "total points every year"...not sure if you're saying for RB's or all positions. Either way, his ADP last year was 7 for RB's, and he ended up 12th overall for RB's in both of my main leagues (which have different scoring).

 

In 2008, his ADP was 5 for RB's and he ended up ranked 13th in my leagues. While he may have been in the top 15 for RB's the last 5 years, you need to look at whether you got good VALUE based on his ranking at the end of the season compared to where you got him. If I'm drafting him in the first round, and as my RB1, he BETTER be in the top 15. Obviously it doesn't always happen that your RB1 drafted in the first round ends up in the top 15, but you should be expecting that with your pick or you wouldn't take that player in the first/second round most likely.

 

I think if you can pick him up as a RB1 or RB2 at the 15 spot or later, you'll most likely be getting good value. The hard part for me in drafting him is feeling like I'm taking a player that may be hurting my chances to either make the playoffs, or not be available in the playoffs when I need him. I'm on the side that thinks injury is inevitable...Hopefully the Rams start turning the passing game around over the next few seasons and SJax can stay healthy. WHEN that happens, he's going to be a top 3-5 back. I just hope they get things turned around before he takes too much of a beating or gets too old.

[MDC 5,963]

It didn't work out last year, how could you be so certain it will this year?

 

I'm not - it's just an educated guess. We'll see.

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

if you feel Jackson is overrated thats your problem or the problem of whoever wrote the rankings you use.

 

we all know he plays for a ###### team. The team was god awful last year (wont be worse this year). and we all know he is extremely talented. We also know he is one of the few remaining workhorse backs in the league and this is where his value lies.

 

if healthy, Jackson should produce in yardage and receptions. Just dont expect TD's to come easily on such a craptastic team.

 

In PPR leagues, Jackson is still a first round talent due to his receptions. Despite his poor TD totals in 2009, he was 7th amont RB's in PPR formats due to his 1700 total yards and 50 receptions.

 

I have no problem ranking him after CJ2K, Rice, Peterson, MJD and Gore for PPR formats. Thats as far as RB's are concerned. I would certainly take a few WR's over him.

[da_mane_man 1]

owning him last year was sooo frustrasting. he was always questionable, but after a few weeks, i just trusted that he would start (and he did) so that wasn't much of an issue. what WAS an issue though, was his scoring TD's. the league i was in was PPR, so he helped me a bit there, but following the rams on nfl.com was torture. they're such a BAD team and they never get any red zone opportunities. watching him squeak points out from pounding out yards and a few random catches was really frustrating.

 

if i could trust that bradford would not get injured himself and then play better than the guys they had last year (not too hard of a task), then i don't think i would be that reluctant to take sjax.