What percent luck is fantasy football?

[DickThuy 0]

What % luck would you say fantasy football is? In comparison, I think that poker (long run) is 80% skill and 20% luck. How about fantasy football?

[Mike Nice 40]

What % luck would you say fantasy football is? In comparison, I think that poker (long run) is 80% skill and 20% luck. How about fantasy football?

 

 

In my case 100% skill 0 % luck

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,668]

90% skill 10% luck the only factor in luck is opponent

[PackYourNut 47]

In my case 100% skill 0 % luck

 

Clearly.. seeing how you have Kolb as your QB!

[Dr Hook 6]

Closer to 65 35. 65% skill as you do quite a but of research but you do not have any say over what plays are run, when to go for it etc. You do have the ability in most leagues to trade and pick up players which also adds to the skill part of the game but over time many players get hurt or sit for the ff playoffs etc and you have no control over that. My .02

[roroco 75]

It depends if you are doing well or poorly.

[Mike Nice 40]

Clearly.. seeing how you have Kolb as your QB!

 

 

Picked up Vick and i am now 2-0

 

SKILL

[Vipers82 0]

I say its closer to 70-80%. I don't know if there is such a thing as an unknown player anymore which has taken most of the skill out of playing. It's mostly luck in my mind because of drafting. You probably identify a few guys at every position you want and will only get 1-2 of them and for me it seems like the guy I didn't get blows up and the guy I got does nothing. Also I am probably the wrong person to comment on this as I have had some pretty horrific fantasy luck the last couple of years and it's causing me to seriously contemplate quitting altogether.

[WhiteWonder 2,235]

50% Skill 50% Luck and that may be generous on the skill end.

 

I'm sure that will ruffle some feathers amongst the guys who like to think they are elite at FF and spend lots of time producing long winded ranking posts.... but luck shows its face in so many ways in FF. Player injuries, your weekly opponent, gameday weather, the score and flow of the game that might dictate how your players are used.

 

There is definately skill involved. You should have been able to see the writing on the wall regarding Arian Foster... or Ray Rice last year. Drafting them wasn't luck, it was being prepared and knowledgeable. The same goes for managing bye weeks and making in-season trades to aquire players with nice playoff matchups... stuff like that. Another overlooked skill is reading and reacting to your draft. Knowing when to pass on a QB because all the teams after you have 1 already.

 

 

I played poker alot for a few years and i always laughed at the people who put such a high % on skill. When they win, its skill. When they lose, its a bad beat on a lucky draw... You have to be skilled in how you play your cards, but the cards are still the cards and luck of the draw is a huge factor.

[KSB2424 3,087]

It depends if you are doing well or poorly.

This has always been the answer. If you win it's skill. If you lose it's all luck.

 

The answer, like most things, is somwhere in the middle. Therefore I just always answer this question with 50/50.

[IndyFan 2]

50% Skill 50% Luck and that may be generous on the skill end.

 

I'm sure that will ruffle some feathers amongst the guys who like to think they are elite at FF and spend lots of time producing long winded ranking posts.... but luck shows its face in so many ways in FF. Player injuries, your weekly opponent, gameday weather, the score and flow of the game that might dictate how your players are used.

 

There is definately skill involved. You should have been able to see the writing on the wall regarding Arian Foster... or Ray Rice last year. Drafting them wasn't luck, it was being prepared and knowledgeable. The same goes for managing bye weeks and making in-season trades to aquire players with nice playoff matchups... stuff like that. Another overlooked skill is reading and reacting to your draft. Knowing when to pass on a QB because all the teams after you have 1 already.

 

 

I played poker alot for a few years and i always laughed at the people who put such a high % on skill. When they win, its skill. When they lose, its a bad beat on a lucky draw... You have to be skilled in how you play your cards, but the cards are still the cards and luck of the draw is a huge factor.

 

I agree with this post. I dominated when it was magazines and independent knowledge of the game. Now everyone has computer programs and drafting aids. No longer can you pick up an Arian Foster in the 6th or 7th round. The skill part is at an all time low

[Phurfur 70]

H2H is at least 50% luck, a total points league is about 15% luck.

[edjr 5,739]

This has always been the answer. If you win it's skill. If you lose it's all luck.

 

The answer, like most things, is somwhere in the middle. Therefore I just always answer this question with 50/50.

 

X

 

Whether I win or lose, I say that 80% is luck.

 

Fantasy Schedule

Injuries

opponent of player

Weather

score of game

situation of game

coaching

 

none of that can be controlled, none of that is skill.

[kmbryant09 1]

I actually read a very insightful article on this subject last season. Unfortunately I didn't save it, so I don't have a link.

 

But it broke down the variation of fantasy football, and compared them to the likes of chess, poker, etc.

 

Chess was pretty much 100% skill, since every factor is in your control. Poker was something like 80/20, since teh cards still have to fall your way. I believe fantasy football was in that range...Something like 65/35 or 70/30. Obviously not a definitive answer, but it was a very cool read. If someone could find it, that'd be awesome

[KSB2424 3,087]

X

 

Whether I win or lose, I say that 80% is luck.

 

Fantasy Schedule

Injuries

opponent of player

Weather

score of game

situation of game

coaching

 

none of that can be controlled, none of that is skill.

I can agree with 80/20 luck. I just say 50/50 cause it's easy. There is at least a some skill and some luck involved, and neither you or I can put a definitive "number" on which part. HTH

[BunnysBastatrds 1,958]

75Luck/25 Skill 10% Draft 10% Waiver Wire 5% Roster Selection

 

There are too many variables that go into playing Fantasy Football. Where you pick in the draft is a big one. If you play head to head, what division you are in. How your waiver wire system works. Injuries. Weather. Arrest. Suspensions. How your play-off system works. And parity in the NFL is the biggest one. Anyone can grab an updated cheat sheet and put a good team together if you know the basics. How many times have you left your draft knowing you had a great team? In week two your #1 RB is out three to six weeks. Your #2 WR's QB get's a concusion in the first quarter and sits the rest of the game. You play the worst team in your league and score 121 points only to see his sh!t team go off and score 150.

 

I went to an all womans league draft a few weeks ago and was amazed at some of the teams these chicks put together. Two or three had pretty good teams. Another three had average to above average teams and the rest picked players based on their uniforms and what tight end had a cute butt. They followed their cheat sheets for the most part and their draft didn't look much different from a mock draft at fantasyfootballcalculaor.

 

I keep hearing people use Ray Rice last year as an example that there is more skill than luck. If you picked Ray Rice, you probably went to the championship. I was in the ten spot in my 12 Team re-draft. I picked him in the fourth round. Every owner behind me moaned when I called him out, "I was going to take him with my next pick!" Every publication you read said he was going to be the pick of the year and I was LUCKY enough to get hin in the fourth. Went to the championship and lost. Everyone wanted him, I was just lucky enough to pull the trigger early. 75/25

[Frank M 181]

Depends on who you are playing with. If you are playing with a bunch of saavy owners, it's more luck because guys have done their research, know how to draft well and know who to target on the waiver wire. If you're playing witha bunch of dopes, your skill will win it even if you have a run of bad luck.

 

I'll say 70/30 skill to luck.

[edjr 5,739]

I can agree with 80/20 luck. I just say 50/50 cause it's easy. There is at least a some skill and some luck involved, and neither you or I can put a definitive "number" on which part. HTH

 

I get what you're saying, but no one in the world can predict accurately what a player is going to do, especially in football. Where does the skill come in?

 

I think we need to come up with a different word. Skill is just silly, we're not actually playing are we? How about 80% luck 20% knowledge?

[thePRO 78]

X

 

Whether I win or lose, I say that 80% is luck.

 

Fantasy Schedule

Injuries

opponent of player

Weather

score of game

situation of game

coaching

 

none of that can be controlled, none of that is skill.

 

Ding, ding, ding!! This is what I was going to say! It's mostly luck! How many times have we scored the 2nd highest in the week to only be facing the only person with more points than you?

 

Last week I looked like I was going to pull out a weak game, but my opponents players all got behind early and his WRs and RBs scored big in the 4th quarter.

 

Coaching sucks for owners of Charles and MJD as of now...and everything else etc...

[WhiteWonder 2,235]

 

I keep hearing people use Ray Rice last year as an example that there is more skill than luck. If you picked Ray Rice, you probably went to the championship. I was in the ten spot in my 12 Team re-draft. I picked him in the fourth round. Every owner behind me moaned when I called him out, "I was going to take him with my next pick!" Every publication you read said he was going to be the pick of the year and I was LUCKY enough to get hin in the fourth. Went to the championship and lost. Everyone wanted him, I was just lucky enough to pull the trigger early. 75/25

 

not at all.

 

YOU decided when to pick him. It was YOUR choice to pull the trigger early. There was no luck at all. I would argue that it was skill/informed decision for you to select him a tad early to make sure he was on your team.

 

luck would have been timing out and being given rice by default. Or feeling like he went under the radar or other owners forgot about him and let him slide really far to you.

[FeelingMN 273]

I had the New England defense queued up for this past weekend. I also had the Oakland defense. Both were claimed before my claim was processed. So I "settled" for San Diego.

 

My opponent was able to claim BJax....who he started in front of Hightower.

 

I also started Schaub. There was a bunch of weird things that happened in the 4th quarter of that game that allowed Schaub grab a few more points for my team.

 

Because of these strange twists of fate, I won this week by 3 points.

 

Fantasy is at least 50% luck.

[footballfanatic2 0]

I agree with this post. I dominated when it was magazines and independent knowledge of the game. Now everyone has computer programs and drafting aids. No longer can you pick up an Arian Foster in the 6th or 7th round. The skill part is at an all time low

 

 

Double agree on skill factor being eroded with internet sites/programs spoon feeding information to all, negating individual independent research and football knowledge .

 

Been playing with the same group for 16 years. 50% Total points and 50 % HTH

The first 12 years I came in 1st or 2nd place in ttl points 9 times. Haven't been above 4th

the last 4 years, maybe I'm getting stupid as I get older.

 

Here's a couple golden oldie as an example -

Remember drafting Jake Reed very late (WR Minn) in one of my first drafts just because of seeing a one line quote from Warren Moon in Pro Football Weekly saying Reed reminded him of Haywood Jeffries. I received blank stares from almost every owner not knowing who Reed was. Turned into a very productive #2 WR.

Did the same thing with Ben Coates (A.Gates clone) in my very first draft. Saw his potential in limited time the previous year and got him in the last round for his breakout season.

 

Now every FF internet site touts these type of guys to everyone.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Since I play both poker and fantasy football, I'm going to say that the skill component of fantasy football is greater than in no-limit hold-em (the only kind of poker i play regularly).

 

I believe that in competitive $100 12 team re-draft and auction leagues, I make the playoffs right around 80% of the time and win the championship about 25% of the time.

In (18-27 player) 3-table $100 buy-in poker tournaments (I don't have the time to enter big tournaments either live or on-line), I place in the money (top 4 or 5) about 25% of the time and win about 10% of the time (I have a very good 'short-table' and 1 on 1 game).

 

Fantasy football is easier for me to win at than poker. So if fantasy football is 50% luck, then I am one lucky son of a b1tch!

 

But in my opinion that you can't assign any 75%/25% type percentages to either, because in both poker and in fantasy football, over the long haul skill always wins out.

[stonewall 647]

X

 

Whether I win or lose, I say that 80% is luck.

 

Fantasy Schedule

Injuries

opponent of player

Weather

score of game

situation of game

coaching

 

none of that can be controlled, none of that is skill.

 

 

I gotta disagree here.

 

Fantasy Schedule - Serious fantasy drafters/traders/waiver wire workers always take playoff schedules into consideration.

Injuries - Only if it occurs during the game. Otherwise, owners are informed/aware and adjust roster accordingly.

opponent of player - There are a few guys who never sit. Otherwise, asute owners analyse difficult/cake matchups when deciding lineups.

Weather - Seriously overrated. Perhaps with a kicker. We have all seen fantasy bonanzas (including QB's) on crappy days.

score of game - True, but serious NFL followers can often foresee potential blowout/defensive struggle schenarios.

situation of game - See comment above.

coaching - Perennial playoff contenders try to understand and account for coaching philosophies, as it relates to his/her player.

 

 

Basically, the above schenarios are what seperates the men from the boys in fantasy football. I think that your argument actually solidifies the skill reasoning. We all know that a certain amount of luck is involved. However, you will also notice that some owners are never in the playoffs, while others rarely miss a year.......the latter being the owners who never leave a stone unturned and, as a result, gain that one degree of seperation required to claim the trophy.

 

My take: 65% skill and 35% luck.

[stonewall 647]

in fantasy football, over the long haul skill always wins out.

 

 

 

This

 

Well said Madd.

[rdrs4life 0]

What % luck would you say fantasy football is? In comparison, I think that poker (long run) is 80% skill and 20% luck. How about fantasy football?

 

I have no idea regarding football, but I am incredibly confident it has much more luck involved than poker (long term). Having played poker for most of my life and made a living off of it for a chunk of that time, I can tell you without question that over a large enough sample size poker is almost entirely based upon skill. Keep in mind this is over a long enough sample size. Say, millions of hands. If you play millions of hands against an opponent, or opponents, who you have a skill advantage over, you are virtually guaranteed to be a net winner at the end of that number of hands. I use the term virtually guaranteed like I would if I were to say the phrase, it can be virtually guaranteed that if you are to run towards a wall at full speed you will hit it rather than pass through it unharmed (as, technically, it is theoretically possible for the molecules of your body to pass through the open space between the molecules of the wall without you being damaged).

 

But back to topic, yes FF is very luck based imo. I guess if I were hard pressed to throw a number at it I would say 90% luck any given sunday, 60% luck any given season. And continues to go down as the length of time increases, obviously.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

If Michael Crabtree gets 2 touchdowns and 60 yards receiving tonight or 1 touchdown and 120 yards receiving, then it's skill for me. I'm calling this. That makes me a skilled expert. You could call me a guru of sorts.

 

If Crabtree gets less than that, I'm just mere mortal, an ordinary bloke.

 

So, let's here it for Crabtree

[Me_2006 14]

At least 75% luck. If it weren't mostly luck, the most well-informed and well-prepared owner would win every year. We all know that isn't the case. Auction drafts reduce this some, but it's still well more than 50%. I know 'serious' fantasy players like us don't like to admit that, but it's the truth.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Picked up Vick and i am now 2-0

 

SKILL

Getting Mendenhall, Wayne, and Johnson in a PPR league you are clearly playing with morons

[WhiteWonder 2,235]

Since I play both poker and fantasy football, I'm going to say that the skill component of fantasy football is greater than in no-limit hold-em (the only kind of poker i play regularly).

 

I believe that in competitive $100 12 team re-draft and auction leagues, I make the playoffs right around 80% of the time and win the championship about 25% of the time.

In (18-27 player) 3-table $100 buy-in poker tournaments (I don't have the time to enter big tournaments either live or on-line), I place in the money (top 4 or 5) about 25% of the time and win about 10% of the time (I have a very good 'short-table' and 1 on 1 game).

 

Fantasy football is easier for me to win at than poker. So if fantasy football is 50% luck, then I am one lucky son of a b1tch!

 

But in my opinion that you can't assign any 75%/25% type percentages to either, because in both poker and in fantasy football, over the long haul skill always wins out.

 

dont take this the wrong way but i had a feeling you would say FF was more skill than luck .

 

as a long time FF and poker player (both 11+ yrs altho not much poker lately) I would probably say Poker has more skill involved, especially with how you can influence your opponents. But both are much more luck than people want to believe.

[mgs316 14]

#1 in points week one

#2 in points week two

 

1-1

[ppierce 2]

People putting the "skill" number at 70-80% are giving themselves way too much credit. There is a lot of luck in fantasy football. Probably around 75%. Its the other 25% that involves staying on top of things, being informed and having a passion for it, making trades etc. Thats what separates good owners from bad.

[jrbdmb 28]

Over the long haul skill always wins out.

Like two years ago when I led my 12-team HTH league in points (and I was well ahead of the 2nd place team) but missed the playoffs. I just hit too many teams on their hot week. Meanwhile this week I had CJ, Jamaal Charles, and Hines Ward put up stinkers - but will still win since my opponent has the low score of the week - but would have lost if he had started Cutler instead of Favre.

 

Perhaps 60% skill - 40% luck for a pure points league, but has to be 30% skill - 70% luck for a HTH league.

[Dsausage 36]

50% Skill 50% Luck and that may be generous on the skill end.

 

I'm sure that will ruffle some feathers amongst the guys who like to think they are elite at FF and spend lots of time producing long winded ranking posts.... but luck shows its face in so many ways in FF. Player injuries, your weekly opponent, gameday weather, the score and flow of the game that might dictate how your players are used.

 

There is definately skill involved. You should have been able to see the writing on the wall regarding Arian Foster... or Ray Rice last year. Drafting them wasn't luck, it was being prepared and knowledgeable. The same goes for managing bye weeks and making in-season trades to aquire players with nice playoff matchups... stuff like that. Another overlooked skill is reading and reacting to your draft. Knowing when to pass on a QB because all the teams after you have 1 already.

 

 

I played poker alot for a few years and i always laughed at the people who put such a high % on skill. When they win, its skill. When they lose, its a bad beat on a lucky draw... You have to be skilled in how you play your cards, but the cards are still the cards and luck of the draw is a huge factor.

I am on board with this because on major x factor is not your team its the team you are playing that week and the draws you get each week and how their particular players perform in that particular week. No one in the world is good enough to know that their top draft pick will be injured in week 2.

[dreadlocks34 0]

Being that in a 12 team league, 11 teams have a chance of winning every week no matter what I'd say luck matters as much as just about anything else. In theory you could be the eleventh highest scoring team every single week and go undefeated or could be the second highest scoring every week and go winless. Your players matter but the draw of the schedule trumps just about everything else

[belichick's hoody 0]

I think it really varies from league to league. In a league with comparatively standard rules where everyone has a pretty solid grasp on what they are doing, you're going to need some degree of luck to make the playoffs. Think about it- unless people are just making foolish picks and you get good players crazy late, your first 5 or 6 draft picks account for the vast majority of your team's value. So a couple of injuries to those guys and your team is going to look a lot worse.

 

After that, you really don't know exactly what to expect from anyone. I liked McCoy, Forte, and Best all as solid round 4 values, but liked Jamaal Charles in round 3 even more. After two weeks, the other three guys were all looking a bit better. Also, in one draft I was all set to grab Megatron until he was snagged ahead of me and I took Miles Austin instead...that team is 2-0, but would be 0-2 with Megatron: this is luck.

 

Then every Sunday half of the game (pts allowed) is entirely out of your control. And you can build the best team ever and with a couple of off days in the playoffs go out in round 1.

 

So I would say that assuming that the rest of your league is competent, it's about 75% luck 25% skill. If you're surrounded by guys who are making horrible picks, a skillful owner can build a totally stacked team that leaves everything a lot less up to luck...in which case I would say it's 90% luck and 10% skill cause you're lucky to be surrounded by 'tards.

[Quickolas1 80]

Hard to break it down by a straight % as the "skill" is the first part makes a big difference.

 

In other words, first I'd break it down by those who make good decisions vs. those who make bad decisions. In a random 12 team league, I'd say maybe 4 people just make bad decisions (or don't stay on top of things, don't make appropriate waiver pickups, dont trade, dont monitor maximize their roster/schedule/etc.).

 

So there's 8 left. For those 8, the "skill" or decision-making is a lot less of a factor nowadays with all the information right in your face. For them, it comes down to a big % of luck.

 

I'd say same with poker, but there's a much larger number (than my 4/12 football owners) who make bad decisions.

[Quickolas1 80]

Also, in one draft I was all set to grab Megatron until he was snagged ahead of me and I took Miles Austin instead...that team is 2-0, but would be 0-2 with Megatron: this is luck.

 

you got lucky to overcome your "lack of skill" (ranking megatron over austin)

[Phil Simms 11 127]

it varies by league. If you play with other skilled players you need more luck. If you are in a league with people that dont know what they are doing you dont need as much luck since you will likely draft a very strong team.

[BRANDON ROSS 0]

Interesting question to think about. Without clearly defining the terms, its hard to answer. I think you left out effort which is distinctly different from skill.

 

Also, there are ways to limit luck in a head to head league. I've been trying to get my league to play a double-header each week with the second matchup against the league average. I've seen the #1 scoring team beat the #2 scoring team too many times in a head to head league. However, the argument is that total points are used as a tie-break for the wildcard playoff spots.

 

That said, I'll go 30% luck.