Using the Stud WR theory next season.

[The Moz 69]

RB's are just too unstable. With the top WR's you know what you are getting when WR and QB are healthy. The top WR's usually don't change alot year to year except for age/injury and when that plays a part. If you have a top 3 pick yeah you're taking Foster , Ad OR cjIII - even if youre not yet finished whacking it to Vicks stats yet. If I have the 4th pick I might take Vick but after that I would go WR and hope to get 2 of the top 5. Why take a hit or miss RB and many would have McCoy , Gore , and MJD as solid locks for round 1 - McCoy did it 1 year , Gore is really injured badly , MJD - I could buy this but just don't love his upside as he will get taken 4-6 in almost every league.

 

Thing is if you go wrwrwr you have to go rbrbrb after and basically take whats left at TE and QB. Then again thats okay as there's always good finds late at QB and TE -- there is only 3 TE's draftable early anyway in Davis/Gates/Clark. WRWRWR I think is the wave of the future in FF as RBBC becomes more and more common place.

[p00h 85]

top WRs are more stable than top RBs, but nothing is a lock. Only top QBs are a lock. Look at this year that passed. Moss, fell off a cliff. AJ was hurt, but even in games he played, he didn't produce to the level of being a 1.05-1.07. In the 2nd, most of the guys paid off, though Wayne fell off, and guys like Miles, Marshall, and Fitz didn't earn their keep. Add to that the fact that WR is the one position where unknowns pop up a lot more than most other positions over the duration of a season, and it makes for a not so great theory. Also, a lot of mid tier WRs always come up and produce to top levels, like the lloyds, and floyds, and nicks. My take on things is, don't go with any theory. Be like bruce lee. Flow like water in the draft. Let the situations develop, and make your choices based on the developments...

[Giants Fan 85]

That was my philosophy this year. Went:

 

1.11 Randy Moss

2.2 Aaron Rogers

3.11 Jamal Charles

4.2 Marques Colston

5.11 MSW

 

I still won my league, but it was not thanks to my early WR draft picks.

[Kent 228]

I didn't take a WR until the 5th round of my 12 team draft.

 

I walked out of the Draft with Dwayne Bowe and Mike Wallace. Won my league in record setting fashion.

 

I grabbed Mario Manningham of waivers at one point.

 

You can grab amazing WR off waivers sometimes. Grabbing amazing RBs is a different story. Waiver RBs that went nuts this year? Peyton Hillis?

 

I'm full blown back to RB drafting early and often. Gotta grab those 20 carry RBs.

[Giants Fan 85]

I didn't take a WR until the 5th round of my 12 team draft.

 

I walked out of the Draft with Dwayne Bowe and Mike Wallace. Won my league in record setting fashion.

 

I grabbed Mario Manningham of waivers at one point.

 

You can grab amazing WR off waivers sometimes. Grabbing amazing RBs is a different story. Waiver RBs that went nuts this year? Peyton Hillis?

 

I'm full blown back to RB drafting early and often. Gotta grab those 20 carry RBs.

 

I don't think you need to draft an RB in the first round, but if you don't have an RB that you expect to be a stud by the 5th round, you are in serious trouble. True, I like to take late round flyers, last year I got Bradshaw, Ray Rice and Ricky Williams all after the 6th round, but this year I was less fortunate. My later picks (Thomas Jones, Felix Jones, Fred Jackson) this year were not as good. And I traded Rogers. 5 point passing TDs? Yeah, you want to grab a stud QB early.

 

But what really did it for me this year were my WW pickups: Vick, Tamme, Hillis, Mike Thomas

[Cstriker 2]

this year if you did not have a top 5 RB and a top 5 qb, you were getting blown out of water if your strategy was to go WR in the top 2 rounds.

 

I know, because i went AJ, Austin, Romo, Benson, Forte, Nicks

[p00h 85]

far too many unknown receivers come up EVERY YEAR to put an emphasis on WRs early in the draft. far too many. While the top WRs usually earn their keep, the fact that many unknowns/undrafted guys will pop in to put up top 20 production means you want to focus elsewhere early in the draft, always looking for proven commodities...

 

Round 2 has traditionally been a WR round last few years because the 2nd tier RBs are viewed as less valuable than the top WRs, and I agree with this. So if you want to go WR/WR in 2/3 round, that is not terrible at all, because a lot of those 2nd tier RBs bust, and a lot of those 6th round rbs end up being more than servicable. But WR in the 1st, not a good idea. QB or RB, and a proven commodity. Don't take next year's Ryan matthews or SHonn greene because he's the next on the list of RBs based on some expert's suggestion or even based on ADP. If you don't get a proven commodity in the 1st round, whatever position it might be, you're setting yourself up for either outright failure or a year full of struggles. 1st round doesn't completely make or break a team, but it establishes the foundation of your team, and if you end up with a deangello of this year to start with, its a constant uphill battle, because by the time you've figured out he's a bust, you've already trotted him out there 6 games if not 8, and likely lost a good chunk of them, unless you just absolutely hit a HR with each other pick in your draft. It's not an impossible scenario but highly unlikely...

[Giants Fan 85]

far too many unknown receivers come up EVERY YEAR to put an emphasis on WRs early in the draft. far too many. While the top WRs usually earn their keep, the fact that many unknowns/undrafted guys will pop in to put up top 20 production means you want to focus elsewhere early in the draft, always looking for proven commodities...

 

Round 2 has traditionally been a WR round last few years because the 2nd tier RBs are viewed as less valuable than the top WRs, and I agree with this. So if you want to go WR/WR in 2/3 round, that is not terrible at all, because a lot of those 2nd tier RBs bust, and a lot of those 6th round rbs end up being more than servicable. But WR in the 1st, not a good idea. QB or RB, and a proven commodity. Don't take next year's Ryan matthews or SHonn greene because he's the next on the list of RBs based on some expert's suggestion or even based on ADP. If you don't get a proven commodity in the 1st round, whatever position it might be, you're setting yourself up for either outright failure or a year full of struggles. 1st round doesn't completely make or break a team, but it establishes the foundation of your team, and if you end up with a deangello of this year to start with, its a constant uphill battle, because by the time you've figured out he's a bust, you've already trotted him out there 6 games if not 8, and likely lost a good chunk of them, unless you just absolutely hit a HR with each other pick in your draft. It's not an impossible scenario but highly unlikely...

 

Worse. I got Hillis when Hardesty went down and traded him for Best. So I got a HUGE week out of him, and then pretty much nothing since the turf toe .... and I started Thomas Jones over him in the Championship game. It was a team effort though. My team won.

[Kent 228]

far too many unknown receivers come up EVERY YEAR to put an emphasis on WRs early in the draft. far too many. While the top WRs usually earn their keep, the fact that many unknowns/undrafted guys will pop in to put up top 20 production means you want to focus elsewhere early in the draft, always looking for proven commodities...

 

Round 2 has traditionally been a WR round last few years because the 2nd tier RBs are viewed as less valuable than the top WRs, and I agree with this. So if you want to go WR/WR in 2/3 round, that is not terrible at all, because a lot of those 2nd tier RBs bust, and a lot of those 6th round rbs end up being more than servicable. But WR in the 1st, not a good idea. QB or RB, and a proven commodity. Don't take next year's Ryan matthews or SHonn greene because he's the next on the list of RBs based on some expert's suggestion or even based on ADP. If you don't get a proven commodity in the 1st round, whatever position it might be, you're setting yourself up for either outright failure or a year full of struggles. 1st round doesn't completely make or break a team, but it establishes the foundation of your team, and if you end up with a deangello of this year to start with, its a constant uphill battle, because by the time you've figured out he's a bust, you've already trotted him out there 6 games if not 8, and likely lost a good chunk of them, unless you just absolutely hit a HR with each other pick in your draft. It's not an impossible scenario but highly unlikely...

 

Yeah.

 

Off the top of my head, waiver WR studs...Brandon Lloyd, Mike Williams TB, Steve Johnson, Manningham, Lance Moore, could be had at some point. Next year more will emerge.

[mobb_deep 917]

fantasy football is 100% luck. hth.

 

value based drafting

[Gepetto 988]

Wait. Mario Manningham had a good year? Who knew? Not me.

[jaxjag 43]

Depends on draft position and scoring system. For example,

 

Early 1st = RB

Mid 1st = RB, maybe QB in QB friendly systems

Late 1st = WR

 

In general, I think the value just shakes out that way.

 

Of course, PPR favors receivers and brings more backs into the viable RB pool.

[Giants Fan 85]

Depends on draft position and scoring system. For example,

 

Early 1st = RB

Mid 1st = RB, maybe QB in QB friendly systems

Late 1st = WR

 

In general, I think the value just shakes out that way.

 

Of course, PPR favors receivers and brings more backs into the viable RB pool.

 

I think what's more important is what happens after the draft. You could have drafted a Ryan Mathews or a Frank Gore. Or like me, Randy Moss. but I still won it all. My star WR in the championship game? Mike Thomas.You could make a bad ass team out of undrafted players:

 

Vick

Hillis

Danny Woodhead

Lloyd

Mike Thomas

Mike Williams

Tamme

Kaeding

KC

[jocstrap 8]

RB's are just too unstable. With the top WR's you know what you are getting when WR and QB are healthy. The top WR's usually don't change alot year to year except for age/injury and when that plays a part. If you have a top 3 pick yeah you're taking Foster , Ad OR cjIII - even if youre not yet finished whacking it to Vicks stats yet. If I have the 4th pick I might take Vick but after that I would go WR and hope to get 2 of the top 5. Why take a hit or miss RB and many would have McCoy , Gore , and MJD as solid locks for round 1 - McCoy did it 1 year , Gore is really injured badly , MJD - I could buy this but just don't love his upside as he will get taken 4-6 in almost every league.

 

Thing is if you go wrwrwr you have to go rbrbrb after and basically take whats left at TE and QB. Then again thats okay as there's always good finds late at QB and TE -- there is only 3 TE's draftable early anyway in Davis/Gates/Clark. WRWRWR I think is the wave of the future in FF as RBBC becomes more and more common place.

 

 

In my $400 league I kept CJ2k and then drafted Moss and Wayne 1.9 and 2.4. Wayne did the same sh!t again this year for me in the playoffs - Jack Sh!t.

 

I also tried Colston, T.O, and PlaxiNOOOOO one year in your league. That too failed. You just have to cross your fingers every year and hope your rb's and wr's don't get hurt, or shoot themselves in the leg

[Giants Fan 85]

The league I play in starts 3, as well. 3 WRs 2 RBs and a flex. 12 teams. So that's 36+ WRs starting every week. Seemed impossible for anyone to have really good WRs. I mean who was even steady all year? Calvin Johnson? Bowe? Anyone else?

 

RBs are a dime a dozen, total stud WRs that put up points every week .... seem harder and harder to find, every year. Chances are, if you used a 1st round pick on a WR this year, you regret it.

[jocstrap 8]

The league I play in starts 3, as well. 3 WRs 2 RBs and a flex. 12 teams. So that's 36+ WRs starting every week. Seemed impossible for anyone to have really good WRs. I mean who was even steady all year? Calvin Johnson? Bowe? Anyone else?

 

RBs are a dime a dozen, total stud WRs that put up points every week .... seem harder and harder to find, every year.Chances are, if you used a 1st round pick on a WR this year, you regret it.

 

 

Brandon Lloyd - two leagues, thank you very much Football Scooter. It finally happened

[Giants Fan 85]

 

 

Brandon Lloyd - two leagues, thank you very much Football Scooter. It finally happened

 

Yeah .... if you drafted Lloyd in the first round ..... you were pretty happy with that pick. Did you take Vick and Arian Foster too?

 

Calvin Johnson is the only one I can think of that someone MIGHT have drafted first round, that was consistent.

[jocstrap 8]

Yeah .... if you drafted Lloyd in the first round ..... you were pretty happy with that pick. Did you take Vick and Arian Foster too?

 

Calvin Johnson is the only one I can think of that someone MIGHT have drafted first round, that was consistent.

 

 

sorry, I didn't make it to the bottom of your original post. I take back my Lloyd comment

[lexdizzle 1]

I got andre johnson and wayne this year. It worked out but not because of this theory.

 

Like someone else said value based drafting and making in season pickips and trades is what wins chamionships.

 

Yea i had andre johnson and reggie wayne BUT my wr at the ship were britt and tb m williams.

 

Its hit or miss any way you go in the draft.

[Giants Fan 85]

sorry, I didn't make it to the bottom of your original post. I take back my Lloyd comment

 

I mentioned Bowe who was also not a first round pick, so it was confusing.

[RedzoneMonster 102]

Do you notice this thread keeps going back and forth on whether to take RBs or WRs early? I think the fact is there are BOTH RBs and WRs avail after rd 5 or even on the wire that produce like RB/WR #1's and #2's at some point (if not most/all) of the season.

 

Examples this year:

 

RB: Hillis, McFadden, Bradshaw, BJGE, LT2, Tolbert, Blount.

WR: Lloyd, Wallace, Johnson (BUF), M. Williams (TB), Maclin, Mario, Britt.

 

You could take stud RBs early and get WRs like Wallace, M. Williams, Johnson later on if you're lucky. The thing is, if you DONT luck out and get WRs like this later on you think you HAVE to draft WRs early the next year. You could reverse the above situation and think you HAVE to draft RBs early next year.

 

JMO..

[jgcrawfish 232]

the key is taking guys who perform at/around their draft level early, and hitting on a couple in the middle rounds. I lost in the championship this year to the guy who had Foster and Bowe, and picked up Tamme for the injured Dallas Clark, throw in Peyton and he was a damned tough team. You gotta find a surprise RB and WR in the middle rounds that performs like a top guy to go with your top guys. And it takes a lot of luck.

[De Novo 0]

RB's are just too unstable. With the top WR's you know what you are getting when WR and QB are healthy. The top WR's usually don't change alot year to year except for age/injury and when that plays a part. If you have a top 3 pick yeah you're taking Foster , Ad OR cjIII - even if youre not yet finished whacking it to Vicks stats yet. If I have the 4th pick I might take Vick but after that I would go WR and hope to get 2 of the top 5. Why take a hit or miss RB and many would have McCoy , Gore , and MJD as solid locks for round 1 - McCoy did it 1 year , Gore is really injured badly , MJD - I could buy this but just don't love his upside as he will get taken 4-6 in almost every league.

 

Thing is if you go wrwrwr you have to go rbrbrb after and basically take whats left at TE and QB. Then again thats okay as there's always good finds late at QB and TE -- there is only 3 TE's draftable early anyway in Davis/Gates/Clark. WRWRWR I think is the wave of the future in FF as RBBC becomes more and more common place.

I've never agreed with this, but after a year like this are you crazy?

 

Try this on for size - 4 of the top 10 consensus WRs:

Randy Moss

Larry Fitzgerald

Miles Austin

Brandon Marshall

 

All top 10 WRs - all massive busts and benchable for waiver wire fodder. How is that more stable than any other position?

 

If stability is what you're looking for, take Rodgers or Manning and Mendenhall or Turner. Don't waste your pick on DJax and Greg Jennings because you're asking for a bust.

[Giants Fan 85]

the key is taking guys who perform at/around their draft level early, and hitting on a couple in the middle rounds. I lost in the championship this year to the guy who had Foster and Bowe, and picked up Tamme for the injured Dallas Clark, throw in Peyton and he was a damned tough team. You gotta find a surprise RB and WR in the middle rounds that performs like a top guy to go with your top guys. And it takes a lot of luck.

 

Was a stud TE week 16. I got him off waivers first. Same with Vick. Same with Hillis. I got those 3 off waivers. Traded Hillis and people were like, "You got Aaron Rogers .... you should trade Vick!" and I was all, "No, I should trade Rogers .... to the team I play on his bye." Engineered that trade and WHOOPED him week 10 with Vick. The one week my Charles/Jones combo didn't put up 25 or more ..... my first round bye.

 

"Yeah ..... it's luck."

 

- Rounders

 

[Giants Fan 85]

Don't get me wrong, you can draft a bust RB in the first round just as easy. I predicted that CJ Spiller was not worth drafting. My rookie bust pick this year. ANY ROOKIE .... I would not draft in early rounds.

 

I look for VALUE in my picks, adjusted to scoring for my league. Jamal Charles at the end of the 3rd round .... great pick. Great value there.

[chroniciguana 13]

It depends on where you are drafting, what has been taken ahead of you and the WR landscape.

 

If you are drafting 1.12 and 2.01 AND the top two WRs are on the board, AND if both are clearly superior to the rest of the pack, AND you have identified a a quality upside RB and a QB you believe will be available at 3.12 and 4.1, go for it. Maybe.

 

That's a lot of ANDs, however. If you had a crystal ball in August, one that allowed you to see into the future, how would WR-WR worked out for you in 2010?

 

You would have likely drafted Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jennings with your first two picks. To match their combined point production with RBs, you would have needed a Darren McFadden and a Jamaal Charles to be available late in the first round. (If you actually were a time traveler, you would have nailed Arian Foster, but ...).

 

Problem is, without the crystal ball you would have likely gone with something like Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. Johnson finished at No. 10 and Moss as a spectator. Your likely RB picks from the 12 hole wouldn't have worked out much better.

 

Testing your WR theory against the actual 2010 results doesn't prove or disprove WR-WR. And it's a likely loser (IMO) unless you are drafting from the 11 or 12 hole. And even then ...

 

Going into a draft with any kind of dogma-style strategy denies you the flexibility to respond to the direction the draft is taking. Every year I try to predict the first two rounds of our draft. I have yet to come remotely close. And 2011 could be the craziest we've seen in years.

 

The best strategy is to do your homework and keep your fingers crossed.

[cmh6476 757]

I franchised Ray Rice this year, and drafted Randy Moss, Miles Austin and Greg Jennings. (8 man league)

 

didn't work out quite as I had planned

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

So what I'm getting from this thread is that you should get a stud QB early. Brady, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Vick. RB's and WR's are more volatile and can more easily be found on the WW.

[pimptastic69 0]

So what I'm getting from this thread is that you should get a stud QB early. Brady, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Vick. RB's and WR's are more volatile and can more easily be found on the WW.

 

 

For the last 3 years I'd drafted stud QBs early in two leagues and was in 5 of 6 superbowls. This past year I strayed by going WR heavy (R. White, Moss, Fitzgerald with Flacco/Schaub as my QBs) and that backfired in a big way. It's much harder to compete when you don't have those guaranteed points that QBs like Brady, Manning, Rivers and Brees provide. Year in and year out they are the most consistent point scorers.

[Kent 228]

So what I'm getting from this thread is that you should get a stud QB early. Brady, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Vick. RB's and WR's are more volatile and can more easily be found on the WW.

 

Pretty much.

 

The top QBs are so consistent. You can draft a WR or RB in round one and have them absolutely bust. Then, you're fighting an uphill battle.

 

Plus, the top QBs have a pretty good record of health relative to the rest of the league. Rivers, Brees and Manning have been injury free for a while. Brady too except for one season. QBs are safer. And you never know when one of them is going to have a historic year. Manning and Brady went crazy two years in a row showing each other up.

 

The people that take Vick early next year have to dodge him getting put on IR with the way he runs the ball.

[chroniciguana 13]

So what I'm getting from this thread is that you should get a stud QB early. Brady, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Vick. RB's and WR's are more volatile and can more easily be found on the WW.

 

What I'm getting is that there is no theory unless you are drafting 1.01. Then it becomes the Vick or A. Foster (or whoever) theory. Other than that, your theory develops and changes with each preceding pick.

 

As far as the stud QB thing, this year the difference in production between the No. 1 QB and the No. 5 QB was just one percent. Between No. 1 and No. 12 it was just over 11 percent. Even tossing out Foster's stat-bending numbers, the difference between RB No. 2 and No. 12 was 24 percent. Include Foster and it gets really grim.

 

Unless folks are doubling up on QBs with their first two picks and presuming a few WRs fly off the board early, a top 10 QB in the third round isn't an unreasonable bet. Considering the drop-off with RBs vs. QBs, give me a shot at a top 5 RB1 and a chance at a promising RB2 and I'll happily live with a non-top 5 QB.

 

But it all depends on how the draft goes.

[p00h 85]

So what I'm getting from this thread is that you should get a stud QB early. Brady, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Vick. RB's and WR's are more volatile and can more easily be found on the WW.

 

 

easiest way to compete yearly is to grab a stud qb early, UNLESS you have a STUD PROVEN rb staring you in teh face. Ray Rice types don't qualify. For next year, Adrian Foster doesn't qualify. FFers are so quick to forget that every year more than 1/2 the projected top RBs flop, and some of them fall off the face of the earth. While Rice didn't fall off the face of the earth, he certainly flopped. And the deangelo types fell off the face of the earth. Basically, if you can grab ADP, MJD or CJ, you grab them. At 1.04, I go qb, easy choice. Sure foster might put up same numbers as this year, but if you take him in the 1st as opposed to the 6th, and he doesn't, you get screwed...

 

 

Most people will stay stuck in rb-rb-wr or whatever theory they want to get stuck in, but top ranked qbs are the ONLY sure thing in FF...

[p00h 85]

What I'm getting is that there is no theory unless you are drafting 1.01. Then it becomes the Vick or A. Foster (or whoever) theory. Other than that, your theory develops and changes with each preceding pick.

 

As far as the stud QB thing, this year the difference in production between the No. 1 QB and the No. 5 QB was just one percent. Between No. 1 and No. 12 it was just over 11 percent. Even tossing out Foster's stat-bending numbers, the difference between RB No. 2 and No. 12 was 24 percent. Include Foster and it gets really grim.

 

Unless folks are doubling up on QBs with their first two picks and presuming a few WRs fly off the board early, a top 10 QB in the third round isn't an unreasonable bet. Considering the drop-off with RBs vs. QBs, give me a shot at a top 5 RB1 and a chance at a promising RB2 and I'll happily live with a non-top 5 QB.

 

But it all depends on how the draft goes.

 

see this is all fine and good if you knew for sure that the rb you take in teh 1st round is going to give you 24% better production than the 10th rb. The uncertainty throws this relativity formula out the window. And its not like 2 of the top 12 rbs flop. 1/2 flop every year, and 6 rbs thhat get drafted later in the draft pop up in the top 10 end of year. Too much inconsistency to blindly take the next best RB IMO...

 

Like I said, ADP, CJ or MJD, I'll take them over the qbs any day. Foster, hell no. Do you know how many guys have come and gone with superstud seasons, and then off into the wind???

[TimHauck 1,804]

top WRs are more stable than top RBs, but nothing is a lock. Only top QBs are a lock.

 

I agree somewhat, but I still wouldn't go as far as saying top QB's are a lock.

 

I like how a lot of people are now putting Rivers into the "top QB" group, yet before the season he was probably at best the #7 ranked QB in most rankings. FFToday had him at #10. Yes, you can probably put him in that group for next year, but going into this year most people didn't consider him a "consistent stud QB." The big 6 before the season was Rodgers-Brees-Manning-Brady-Romo-Schaub. Obviously Romo got hurt, so that's a bit of a different situation, and although Schaub did well, he wasn't a stud. So there were really only 4 QB's that were drafted as studs and ended as studs.

 

Now compare that to RB's and WR's. As I think was mentioned in one of these other discussions, the unquestioned top 3 RB's going into the season were CJ-AP-MJD. CJ and AP both finished as top 5 RB's, and if MJD played the last 2 weeks he may have as well. The #4 RB (which was a dropoff after the first three), Ray Rice, despite receiving the anger of many FFTodayers, still finished in the top 10. As far as WR's, other than the Moss situation, the rest of the top 5 WR's (AJ, Wayne, White, Calvin) all finished in the top 10.

 

So I guess what it's taking me this long to say is, the top 3-5 guys at each position should be the best "locks." Duh, right? So I guess that means I'm agreeing with you because you most likely won't have to draft a top QB until most of the top RB's and WR's are already gone. So right now it's looking like the top 6 QB's (Brady-Brees-Rodgers-Vick-Manning-Rivers in whatever order with Vick probably being the least of a lock) will probably be gone by the end of the second round next year. So yeah, if one of those guys are still available and you're left with the Shonn Greene and Ryan Mathews of the world, it may be wise to go QB there. But I wouldn't have your mind set that you need a "stud" QB and then draft Matt Ryan in the third round or something.

[p00h 85]

he was only ranked lower because of the vjax situation. Rivers has shown us to be an elite qb, and was in my top tier. The only qb out of my top tier that didn't earn his keep was schaub. That means top tier qbs hit at an 80% rate. Far better than the ~50% rate rbs hit at EVERY YEAR. And wrs, while they're more consistent, aren't as valuable because every year there are a boatload of unknowns that pop up out of nowhere to finish top 20. So whats that leave you, QB. And taking a step away from this year, take a look at stud qbs over the past 10 years. Every year, barring injury, they produce. Peyton hasn't fallen off in 15 years. Brady in 10. Brees in 5. They just show up and lock themselves into 30+ tds. ANd ever so often, you get the brady record breaker. Meanwhile, Peyton just grinds to his mean year after year. It's scary how consistent top qbs are and how they can anchor your team. Sure the production peyton gives you might be only 4% greater than the #8 qb, but thats better than deangelo giving you 12% of what the 10th rb is going to give you...

 

 

 

I agree somewhat, but I still wouldn't go as far as saying top QB's are a lock.

 

I like how a lot of people are now putting Rivers into the "top QB" group, yet before the season he was probably at best the #7 ranked QB in most rankings. FFToday had him at #10. Yes, you can probably put him in that group for next year, but going into this year most people didn't consider him a "consistent stud QB." The big 6 before the season was Rodgers-Brees-Manning-Brady-Romo-Schaub. Obviously Romo got hurt, so that's a bit of a different situation, and although Schaub did well, he wasn't a stud. So there were really only 4 QB's that were drafted as studs and ended as studs.

 

Now compare that to RB's and WR's. As I think was mentioned in one of these other discussions, the unquestioned top 3 RB's going into the season were CJ-AP-MJD. CJ and AP both finished as top 5 RB's, and if MJD played the last 2 weeks he may have as well. The #4 RB (which was a dropoff after the first three), Ray Rice, despite receiving the anger of many FFTodayers, still finished in the top 10. As far as WR's, other than the Moss situation, the rest of the top 5 WR's (AJ, Wayne, White, Calvin) all finished in the top 10.

 

So I guess what it's taking me this long to say is, the top 3-5 guys at each position should be the best "locks." Duh, right? So I guess that means I'm agreeing with you because you most likely won't have to draft a top QB until most of the top RB's and WR's are already gone. So right now it's looking like the top 6 QB's (Brady-Brees-Rodgers-Vick-Manning-Rivers in whatever order with Vick probably being the least of a lock) will probably be gone by the end of the second round next year. So yeah, if one of those guys are still available and you're left with the Shonn Greene and Ryan Mathews of the world, it may be wise to go QB there. But I wouldn't have your mind set that you need a "stud" QB and then draft Matt Ryan in the third round or something.

[TimHauck 1,804]

he was only ranked lower because of the vjax situation. Rivers has shown us to be an elite qb, and was in my top tier. The only qb out of my top tier that didn't earn his keep was schaub. That means top tier qbs hit at an 80% rate. Far better than the ~50% rate rbs hit at EVERY YEAR. And wrs, while they're more consistent, aren't as valuable because every year there are a boatload of unknowns that pop up out of nowhere to finish top 20. So whats that leave you, QB. And taking a step away from this year, take a look at stud qbs over the past 10 years. Every year, barring injury, they produce. Peyton hasn't fallen off in 15 years. Brady in 10. Brees in 5. They just show up and lock themselves into 30+ tds. ANd ever so often, you get the brady record breaker. Meanwhile, Peyton just grinds to his mean year after year. It's scary how consistent top qbs are and how they can anchor your team. Sure the production peyton gives you might be only 4% greater than the #8 qb, but thats better than deangelo giving you 12% of what the 10th rb is going to give you...

 

OK, but you're comparing "top tier" QB's to "top 10" RB's. How many QB's were in your "top tier"? 5 or 6? The true "top tier" of RB's was just AP-CJ-MJD and they all produced (edit: and as you said, you'd take them over a QB). And the #4 (Rice, probably considered in a different tier) still did pretty well. And there was probably another tier after Rice. Even so, the next two RB's were usually Gore and Turner. Turner finished right at the top 10, and Gore was doing well before he got injured.

[Stewburtx8 67]

see this is all fine and good if you knew for sure that the rb you take in teh 1st round is going to give you 24% better production than the 10th rb. The uncertainty throws this relativity formula out the window. And its not like 2 of the top 12 rbs flop. 1/2 flop every year, and 6 rbs thhat get drafted later in the draft pop up in the top 10 end of year. Too much inconsistency to blindly take the next best RB IMO...

 

Like I said, ADP, CJ or MJD, I'll take them over the qbs any day. Foster, hell no. Do you know how many guys have come and gone with superstud seasons, and then off into the wind???

 

 

There aren't too many RB's that have put up 2200+ total yard seasons with 18 TD's. That's a pretty rare place. The names that have done it over the last 10 years are Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Priest Holmes, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Ahman Green. LJ, Chris Johnson, and Ricky Williams all came close. You don't find too many versatile RB's that are also their teams goalline backs.

[fantasymind 1]

Wait. Mario Manningham had a good year? Who knew? Not me.

 

Maybe not a good YEAR...but, not a single receiver was more valuable when the money was being made, weeks 15 and 16---12 catches, 145 yards and 3 tds...threw in a solid 4-101-1 line for this guys still needing to finish the job in week 17...

[phins2119 0]

I didn't take a WR until the 5th round of my 12 team draft.

 

I walked out of the Draft with Dwayne Bowe and Mike Wallace. Won my league in record setting fashion.

 

I grabbed Mario Manningham of waivers at one point.

 

You can grab amazing WR off waivers sometimes. Grabbing amazing RBs is a different story. Waiver RBs that went nuts this year? Peyton Hillis?

 

I'm full blown back to RB drafting early and often. Gotta grab those 20 carry RBs.

 

 

I agree with u to some degree. I grabbed Collie and BMW, both off the wavier wire. One waiver wire RB, that went nuts that you forgot to mention was Blount, who I signed as well. Like I said, imo it is much easier to find a waiver wire wr then it is to a rb.

[MedStudent 56]

Depends on draft position and scoring system. For example,

 

Early 1st = RB

Mid 1st = RB, maybe QB in QB friendly systems

Late 1st = WR

 

In general, I think the value just shakes out that way.

 

Of course, PPR favors receivers and brings more backs into the viable RB pool.

 

This is what I was going to say too. I have had late picks in most of my drafts and end up going with wide receivers. I'd rather have the 1st or 2nd best wide receiver than the 7th best running back. Running bcks go off the board early. This year I had the number 1 pick and took chris johnson. I ended up taking two wide receivers with my next two picks and I was still strong at wide receiver throughout the year. I always punt on qb's and try to pick up one late. I have ended up with the number 1 qb a number of times while doing this. Ended up with Vick this year had Warner a cuple of years ago..