Fitz or Wayne

[Super Cubs 132]

Who would you rather have this year Fitz or Wayne?

 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Fitz he's more talented, younger, gets an ulgrade at qb and a coach who impacted waynes production last year.

 

I lime wayne too but fitz has the higher ceiling... and floor imo

[famousb 11]

Fitz

[rallo 132]

i'm going to disagree and go with wayne... he and luck have had some time to become familiar with eachother. That and i'm not sold on Carson Palmer coming to town and be the Messiah. I remember a similar thought in oakland when everyone was projecting off the charts #s for all of their WRs... bottom line is they are still the cardinals... they still don't have a good running game, Palmer has to coming into a new organization, and it will take time.

 

Give me Wayne in the 5th round over fitz in the 3rd any day of the week

[PackYourNut 47]

i'm going to disagree and go with wayne... he and luck have had some time to become familiar with eachother. That and i'm not sold on Carson Palmer coming to town and be the Messiah. I remember a similar thought in oakland when everyone was projecting off the charts #s for all of their WRs... bottom line is they are still the cardinals... they still don't have a good running game, Palmer has to coming into a new organization, and it will take time.

 

Give me Wayne in the 5th round over fitz in the 3rd any day of the week

Who predicted the raiders WR to be good? They dont have any and havent since Tim Brown retired... Plus, The Raiders didnt have Fitz?

 

Arians prefers a vertical attack. Carson can still throw. And Fitz is one of the top 3 WR's in the league when he has a good QB.

 

If I had to choose one, I'd take Fitz. However, I expect their numbers to be relatively close and would therefore take Wayne if he indeed has a ADP of two rounds later.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Yes. No one was predicting the raiders wrs to be good. It has less to do with palmer being a messiah and morw to do with fitz being so talented he just needs a competent qb

[BufordT 371]

Slight edge to Reggie Wayne who'll probably be more consistent. Plus, after a quick glance, Indy's schedule looks a lot easier especially late in the year.

 

Palmer and Fitz should hook up for two or three monster games, though.

[famousb 11]

Hilton looked to be displacing Wayne late last year, plus you have two solid rec'ing TE options in Indy who are going to get looks... PLUS didn't Indy throw it a ridiculous number of times last year under Arians? How does that number relate in Indy this year AND do those throwing numbers to ARZ where there aren't as many rec'ing options?

[Matt Mueller 146]

In a vacuum I'd take Fitz but I like Wayne at his ADP better.

 

Looking at the numbers Fitz had a WR8 stretch weeks 3-9 last year and then fell off the map to WR 69 weeks 11-17.

 

 

Arian and Palmer will help Fitz certainly but at this time I wouldn't feel great about the Seattle/SF match ups and think Wayne might be a bit more consistent in his totals.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Hilton looked to be displacing Wayne late last year, plus you have two solid rec'ing TE options in Indy who are going to get looks... PLUS didn't Indy throw it a ridiculous number of times last year under Arians? How does that number relate in Indy this year AND do those throwing numbers to ARZ where there aren't as many rec'ing options?

 

I think Wayne had a career resurgence year and don't expect a repeat of Wayne's totals at all. I think we can expect a bit more of a conservative year from Luck with less downfield passing.

 

I actually think that might impact Hilton, who I like, more than Wayne as he seemed to rely more on the deep ball. Wayne should still be good for possession catchs, yards and a sprinkling of tds.

[Kent 228]

Fitz. Carson will lock in on him. He's going to get a on of targets which is pretty much all he needs. Palmer is not afraid to throw it up for grabs.

[Patmos 2]

Fitz without question. Remember that Wayne was moved all over, and Luck locked in on him. That won't happen this year, plus they will run a lot more this year as well as use their TEs more. Keep in mind too that the Colts will employ a pass-catching fullback as well (which may negatively impact Dwayne Allen too).

 

Even if Arians were still there, I would project a drop off. Now that Hamilton is running the offense, I think it will be a significant drop off. Last year, Wayne was the WR4 weeks 1-12. He was WR36 weeks 13-17, and that was with still getting 10+ targets per game, something that I don't think is sustainable in the new scheme.

[rholio 339]

Fitz, easy choice.

 

QBs: Fitz- big improvement. Wayne- some improvement, 2nd year for Luck

 

OC: Fitz- big improvement. Wayne- neutral at best, likely worse.

 

Fitzgerald should see an improvement from last year, possibly a big improvement from then. Wayne will be very fortunate to match what he did last season.

[rallo 132]

Fitz, easy choice.

 

QBs: Fitz- big improvement. Wayne- some improvement, 2nd year for Luck

 

OC: Fitz- big improvement. Wayne- neutral at best, likely worse.

 

Fitzgerald should see an improvement from last year, possibly a big improvement from then. Wayne will be very fortunate to match what he did last season.

 

 

so i'll agree with a lot of your points...

 

yes i think that larry will have a big improvement over last year, and yes i think reggie will not eclipse last years marks... but then i will disagree as I have to look at last years marks

 

larry fitz 71rec 798 yds 4TDs

 

reggie 106 rec 1355 yds 5TDs

 

 

 

I see them both having 1000+yds season with reggie having about the same number of TDs and larry getting about 2 or 3 more TDs... i see the west coast offense in INDY actually helping reggie and not TY as reggie is more of a possession WR and TY is more of a deep threat... so i could see reggie being close to 100rec again this year.

 

So i guess at the end of this discussion i see them with very similar productions... maybe a slight edge to Fitz, but since he is getting selected 2 rounds ahead of reggie in current drafts i would much rather get reggie in the 5th than fitz in the 3rd...

[famousb 11]

 

i would much rather get reggie in the 5th than fitz in the 3rd...

though i agree with premises like these, i actually can't stand when people use them... why? because when you are actually drafting, you don't have the luxury of saying "i'll pass on Fitz now because i'm certain i'll be able to pick up Wayne in 2 rounds."

that's not real life practical. Plus, it also doesn't take into account auction leagues where there is no concept of round - you're just paying perceived value for each.

 

so the real question is, if Fitz is sitting there at 3.? how likely are you to draft him? if Wayne is sitting there at 5.? how likely are you to draft him?

also, if you are drafting in the top three slots of a draft, how likely are you to "reach" for Fitz at 3.1 - 3.3 vs. likelihood of reaching for Wayne at 5.1 - 5.3?

 

 

jm2c...

[IGotWorms 3,315]

If we're not factoring in draft position, it's Fitz hands down.

 

Remember how Wayne was given up for dead before last season? Yeah he had a surprising year, but he isn't getting any younger and the Colts overachieved last year as a team.

 

Fitz, meanwhile, has a better QB throwing to him this year. 4,000 yards and 22 TDs in Oakland--no reason Palmer can't replicate or even improve on that in Arizona, with Fitz being the main beneficiary.

[Matt Mueller 146]

though i agree with premises like these, i actually can't stand when people use them... why? because when you are actually drafting, you don't have the luxury of saying "i'll pass on Fitz now because i'm certain i'll be able to pick up Wayne in 2 rounds."

that's not real life practical. Plus, it also doesn't take into account auction leagues where there is no concept of round - you're just paying perceived value for each.

 

so the real question is, if Fitz is sitting there at 3.? how likely are you to draft him? if Wayne is sitting there at 5.? how likely are you to draft him?

also, if you are drafting in the top three slots of a draft, how likely are you to "reach" for Fitz at 3.1 - 3.3 vs. likelihood of reaching for Wayne at 5.1 - 5.3?

 

 

jm2c...

 

That's a good point. Looking back I had this decision in our mock draft earlier in June at 4.07 and I took Wayne over Fitz as my first WR (PPR)

 

My thinking at the time was that I thought I count could on Wayne weekly a bit more and didn't want any bust potential.

[weepaws 2,460]

i think its a very very close call at this time .

 

but i like l fitz . he his getting the best qb he has had since warner a coach that loves to throw the ball and there is alot less other talent on the cards after fitz then on the colts

 

after wayne there is hilton and then they picked up bey and they have two te and picked up bradshaw that can catch

 

i know wayne was much better last season a 17 avg to a 11 avg put i like fitz more right now

[tanatastic 2,061]

Fitz, its his year to bounce back. I am really glad I traded alfred morris for him last year a few weeks in. That didnt cost me the championship or anything, oh no not at all.

[rholio 339]

Fitz, its his year to bounce back. I am really glad I traded alfred morris for him last year a few weeks in. That didnt cost me the championship or anything, oh no not at all.

 

Traded Josh Freeman for him last season, hoping he'd have a QB this year.

[Little Big Head 6]

Fitz. Not even close for me

[TimmySmith 2,782]

PPR league Wayne is a no-brainer. NonPPR - Wayne gets the edge.

 

I don't really see where Wayne's numbers should decline all that much from last year.

[Maroon Bells 18]

So funny to read this after the "Greg Jennings is in decline" silliness. Wayne is at the wall. He's got a great environment, but he'll be 35 in midseason. At that age receivers either slowly decline or fall off a cliff. Too risky. LOVED him last year. Thought he was the most underrated receiver in the draft at his ADP. Not this year. This year he's overvalued. On the other hand, Fitz is one of the top 2 or 3 receivers in the NFL playing with a QB who should be able to get him the ball. I think he's this year's Reggie Wayne.

 

People still pay way too much attention to last year and pay too little attention to raw talent.

[DankNuggs 305]

Tough call, on paper slight edge to Fitz looking at upside... But there is probably more variance in what Fitz will produce based on QB in new system and the general suckitude of Ari. Wayne has a smaller range of probably outcomes. He doesn't score TD's though, never been a big TD producer...

[rallo 132]

So funny to read this after the "Greg Jennings is in decline" silliness. Wayne is at the wall. He's got a great environment, but he'll be 35 in midseason. At that age receivers either slowly decline or fall off a cliff. Too risky. LOVED him last year. Thought he was the most underrated receiver in the draft at his ADP. Not this year. This year he's overvalued. On the other hand, Fitz is one of the top 2 or 3 receivers in the NFL playing with a QB who should be able to get him the ball. I think he's this year's Reggie Wayne.

 

People still pay way too much attention to last year and pay too little attention to raw talent.

 

Completely different situation IMO. Wayne is a PPR machine who has only missed 1 game in the last 6 years... i understand that he probably won't repeat last years performance, but what he will give you is consistency. All reggie has done is gain over 1200+ yds on 100+ rec in 3 out of the last 4 years... Reggie also is the WR1 in a pass first offense with a very seriviceable young QB... (unlike Jennings who is the WR1 of a run first offense with arguably one of the worst QBs in the league)

[Quickolas1 80]

Plus, after a quick glance, Indy's schedule looks a lot easier especially late in the year.

 

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm?type=d&sortby=WR

 

Arian and Palmer will help Fitz certainly but at this time I wouldn't feel great about the Seattle/SF match ups and think Wayne might be a bit more consistent in his totals.

 

Zona plays SF in week 17.

also, you might want to look at Indy's NFC opponents.

[BufordT 371]

 

 

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm?type=d&sortby=WR

 

 

Zona plays SF in week 17.

also, you might want to look at Indy's NFC opponents.

 

Good link. In fairness, I did say "quick glance". After spending a little time on it, though, I'll stand by my original assertion.

 

I found a couple of websites saying that Indy has the easier schedule. Most of them have the two schedules being pretty close, except of course, the one you linked. Toolbox has Indy going into 2013 with the 30th hardest schedule for WR's. Nope, not buying it.

 

My own un-scientific, low IQ, sure to be mocked, analysis looks like this:

 

Using FFToday, last year there were 9 teams that yielded less than 20 points per week to WR's. NYJ, SEA, CIN, SF, DEN, CAR, PITT, STL, ATL. This is a good breakoff point considering that there's a good point and a half separation between the 9th and 10th toughest teams for WR's to score against.

 

Arizona plays SFx2, SEAx2, STLx2, ATL, and CAR for a total of 8 games. Go ahead and subtract one game since they play SF in week 17. But also note that ARI plays SEA on the week of most fantasy super bowls.

 

Indy plays STL, SEA, SF, CIN, and DEN for a total of 5 games. Their 6 division games are significantly easier...imo... than ARI's. Yes Indy play SEA SF and STL one time each, just remember though, those won't be divisional games for Indy, which are historically a little more competitive.

 

IDK... I still say Indy has the easier schedule, but not by as much as I originally thought.

 

As for "Fitz or Wayne", I'll go with Wayne being more consistent. Fitz, may or may not be consistent, but he'll have some huge games, no doubt.

[The Moz 69]

Wayne - 81 - 1150 - 7

 

Fitz - 90 - 1400 - 11