Trent Richardson - Sell High?

[Serpent 51]

 

 

yeah not saying that was the absolute case, just saying that believing they traded him strictly because they thought he was no good is shortsighted. Teams and GMs often times look to the future, and this team doesn't have much going on in the present so it's easy to look to the future. Add in the fact that there's been a regime change since he got drafted. They might want to go in a run and gun offense, and see him as a traditional ground and pound back etc. LOTS of factors go into making a decision. He might not be the next coming of walter payton but he's no scrub either. Personally, I think browns got ripped off. They should have and could have demanded more than just a 1st next year, a 1st that won't even be in the top 10. Probably could have at least got a 2nd with that, if not 2 1st straight up. Quality RBs are not easy to come by in the NFL...

 

The Colts benefited from a perception problem. People don't think RBs are worth much in the real NFL (ironically while the fantasy community overvalues the position). So the Browns were dealing from a position of weakness, and took what the market claims is a good deal for them. Look at the sports journalists, all of them write that the Colts are the ones that got ripped off.

 

Of course they're wrong as usual, but that's a lot of pressure to deal with in the real world. It's why people constantly make money mistakes, they're not robots, they give into pressure and think a lot of bad deals are good deals or something they have to do. Eventually they might learn, but many just blame themselves or pretend they didn't make a mistake and just keep doubling down.

 

Great RBs are hard to come by in the NFL, as are great QBs. You have absolutely no guarantee of getting either, probably you'll get a bust. But if you have a great one at either position you need a mediocre one at the other one to be competitive. The great Peyton Manning has a grand total of 1 SB victory. That's the exact same number Corey Dillon has. Those old Dallas Cowboys were not carried by Aikman and Irvin, that was all Emmitt Smith and a great O-line.

 

You could spend that top 5 pick and get Sanchez or JeMarcus Russell. Or you could get an AP. If you get a top RB then you have some more leeway on QB. I don't think Matt Ryan or Matt Schaub are all that great, but they probably have a better chance at winning an SB than the top 5 pick Mark Sanchez does.

[Dan 59]

Lawrence Phillips?

[Dan 59]

He is not a "dressing room" cancer. The Browns are blatantly tanking to win the Bridgewater sweepstakes. Obvious move is obvious man.

 

Somebody needs to inform the defense of this "plan."

[rallo 132]

Lawrence Phillips?

 

Curtis enis?

Rashaan Salaam

Kijana Carter

Tim Biakabatuka?

[Dan 59]

 

Curtis enis?

Rashaan Salaam

Kijana Carter

Tim Biakabatuka?

 

THANK you. Carter was the one that initially came to my head, but I couldn't remember the name. I knew it began with K, but was blanking.

[p00h 85]

You're way off. How many RBs have even been drafted in the first round in recent years? Not many, because the position has been majorly devalued now that the NFL is a passing league. The Colts panicked and as a result the Browns were able to steal a first round pick.

 

 

you're right that rbs have been devalued in real football in recent times, but the fact of the matter is they are a really integral part of any team. Even the most pass happy teams have issues if they can't run the ball at all. And whether the backs are drafted in the 1st or 3rd, a big chunk of the top backs drafted any year will be busts. So getting a guy that has proven himself, albeit in a small sample size, is better than getting the 15th pick or whatever pick they'll get next year. Because whatever they get with that pick, a rb, qb, OL, whatever, will not be a guarantee. THey're not getting andrew luck with that pick. So you give up a proven guy for an unknown commodity. Point I'm making is, the reality of the situation is I'd take a proven back over an unknown pick any day, unless it's a top 3 pick and there are 3 sure fire players coming through next year. But even that is risky, because there have been plenty of top pick or #2 pick or #3 pick that have been flat out busts. ANd plenty more that have not been straight busts but have not lived up to the billing. So to sum up what I'm saying, MY perception is that TRich is worth more than just a mid to late 1st round pick in next year's draft. I do hear you though that this is not the perception in the league anymore, for whatever reason. Time will ultimately tell, but I feel that the story in the long run will be that the browns made yet another idiotic move, one is a long list of many...

[Matt Mueller 146]

One of the only players I've never owned across maybe 12 leagues the past 2 years.

 

He was always valued higher by someone else.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

So what are people doing with Trent or what do you recommend doing?

 

(I do not have him by the way).

 

a. Trade for him, and offer what?

 

b. Trade him away, and for what?

 

c. Hold.

[IGotWorms 3,317]

So what are people doing with Trent or what do you recommend doing?

 

(I do not have him by the way).

 

a. Trade for him, and offer what?

 

b. Trade him away, and for what?

 

c. Hold.

I wouldn't trade for him unless you could buy him low from a frustrated owner. I'd value him around a low-end RB2 if you were looking to trade for him, so perhaps offer a solid WR2 like Garçon or Decker if you're strong at WR and looking for RB help.

 

If you have him the time to trade him was really a couple of weeks ago. I don't think you're going to get value for him right now and might be best off holding in the hopes of a nice game, then trade him.

 

Hold him if you really think he's going to become some power rushing stud down the stretch. I don't see it but that is what Indy thought they were getting in the trade.

[Canadianfan 76]

I was the one of the biggest T-Rich supporters on this site. I honestly thought that it was just a matter of time before he started ripping through D-Lines like a hot knife through butter. Unfortunately, my tune has changed. I now agree with others when they say he's average at best. He doesn't look like the same guy in Cleveland and I think he's fooled us all. Going as high as 2nd in some drafts (mainly keeper leagues) was asinine. He's a high-end RB3.

 

Owners of T-Rich have no choice but to hold/wait for his first decent game (if it ever happens)and then sell. He will get you nothing today.

[unclemercy 51]

buy low!

[BingoBrown 8]

I posted this in A Little Help, but is an offer of L. Miller or Z. Stacy plus either M. Wallace or S. Smith reasonable? FYI, Wallace/Smith would immediately become the current T-Rich owner's best WR.

[IGotWorms 3,317]

I posted this in A Little Help, but is an offer of L. Miller or Z. Stacy plus either M. Wallace or S. Smith reasonable? FYI, Wallace/Smith would immediately become the current T-Rich owner's best WR.

 

You probably need to offer a better WR. Wallace tosses up far too many goose eggs and Steve Smith is having a terrible year.

[BingoBrown 8]

You probably need to offer a better WR. Wallace tosses up far too many goose eggs and Steve Smith is having a terrible year.

Ugh. I would, but my other WRs are D-Jax and Jordy, and they're too valuable to include. Oh well, didn't really need T-Rich anyway.

[krusi123 9]

Am hoping to bundle him(T-Rich) with a top receiver (Welker) and get J. Charles in return. I am stacked at WR, and marginal at RB.

 

Does this sound fair?

[IGotWorms 3,317]

Am hoping to bundle him(T-Rich) with a top receiver (Welker) and get J. Charles in return. I am stacked at WR, and marginal at RB.

 

Does this sound fair?

That's a pretty damn good offer. Personally I don't think I'd trade Charles for anything but I'd at least have to think about that one if I needed an elite WR.

[krusi123 9]

The other guy took my offer of Welker & T-Rich for Charles.

I have heard arguments from both sides, saying who got the best of who, but all in all, I think it is a fair deal.

I guess it all hinges on IF T-Rich turns it around, and becomes viable...

[mahoney 9]

Would yall rather have someone like Sproles over TRich?

[BingoBrown 8]

Welp, guess I'm hoping for a T-Rich turnaround now. Just got him in exchange for Zac Stacy and Mike Wallace.

[shutdown 40]

Why RB's are devalued in the NFL Draft...

 

2013 Rushing Leaders

1) LeSean McCoy 2nd round 53rd Overall

2)Marshawn Lynch 1st Round 12th Overall

3)Arian Foster - UFA

4) Adrian Peterson - 1st Round 7th Overall

5) Frank Gore - 3rd Round 65th Overall

6) Jamaal Charles - 3rd Round 73rd Overall

7) Matt Forte - 2nd Round - 44th Overall

8) DeMarco Murray - 3rd Round 71st Overall

9) Doug Martin - 1st Round 31st Overall

10) DeAngelo Williams - 1st Round 27th Overall

 

Granted it has become a passing league but teams still want a good RB. When you look at what it takes to get a good RB...

 

Spending a 1st round pick on an RB gives me about a 40% chance of having a top 10 RB.

Spending a 3rd round or later pick on an RB gives me a 40% chance of having a top 10 RB.

 

Why spend a high pick on an RB when you are just as likely to find a productive RB in rounds 3 and below. The colts lose on this deal as T Rich is no better than any of the 3rd round backs listed above.

[vash1012 19]

Why RB's are devalued in the NFL Draft...

 

2013 Rushing Leaders

1) LeSean McCoy 2nd round 53rd Overall

2)Marshawn Lynch 1st Round 12th Overall

3)Arian Foster - UFA

4) Adrian Peterson - 1st Round 7th Overall

5) Frank Gore - 3rd Round 65th Overall

6) Jamaal Charles - 3rd Round 73rd Overall

7) Matt Forte - 2nd Round - 44th Overall

8) DeMarco Murray - 3rd Round 71st Overall

9) Doug Martin - 1st Round 31st Overall

10) DeAngelo Williams - 1st Round 27th Overall

 

Granted it has become a passing league but teams still want a good RB. When you look at what it takes to get a good RB...

 

Spending a 1st round pick on an RB gives me about a 40% chance of having a top 10 RB.

Spending a 3rd round or later pick on an RB gives me a 40% chance of having a top 10 RB.

 

Why spend a high pick on an RB when you are just as likely to find a productive RB in rounds 3 and below. The colts lose on this deal as T Rich is no better than any of the 3rd round backs listed above.

 

That's not how math works. If you want to know what chance you have of having a top 10 RB based on what round you pick in, you have to factor in the number of RBs taken in each round over the years. I think you'd find that there have been only a handful of RBs taken in the first round in the last few years whereas there are quite a few taken in rounds 3-5 so you chance of getting a top RB in the first round is still much higher than later in the draft.

[IGotWorms 3,317]

Why RB's are devalued in the NFL Draft...

 

2013 Rushing Leaders

1) LeSean McCoy 2nd round 53rd Overall

2)Marshawn Lynch 1st Round 12th Overall

3)Arian Foster - UFA

4) Adrian Peterson - 1st Round 7th Overall

5) Frank Gore - 3rd Round 65th Overall

6) Jamaal Charles - 3rd Round 73rd Overall

7) Matt Forte - 2nd Round - 44th Overall

8) DeMarco Murray - 3rd Round 71st Overall

9) Doug Martin - 1st Round 31st Overall

10) DeAngelo Williams - 1st Round 27th Overall

 

Granted it has become a passing league but teams still want a good RB. When you look at what it takes to get a good RB...

 

Spending a 1st round pick on an RB gives me about a 40% chance of having a top 10 RB.

Spending a 3rd round or later pick on an RB gives me a 40% chance of having a top 10 RB.

 

Why spend a high pick on an RB when you are just as likely to find a productive RB in rounds 3 and below. The colts lose on this deal as T Rich is no better than any of the 3rd round backs listed above.

You need to work on your understanding of statistics

[skinsrule05 30]

Why RB's are devalued in the NFL Draft...

 

2013 Rushing Leaders

1) LeSean McCoy 2nd round 53rd Overall

2)Marshawn Lynch 1st Round 12th Overall

3)Arian Foster - UFA

4) Adrian Peterson - 1st Round 7th Overall

5) Frank Gore - 3rd Round 65th Overall

6) Jamaal Charles - 3rd Round 73rd Overall

7) Matt Forte - 2nd Round - 44th Overall

8) DeMarco Murray - 3rd Round 71st Overall

9) Doug Martin - 1st Round 31st Overall

10) DeAngelo Williams - 1st Round 27th Overall

 

Granted it has become a passing league but teams still want a good RB. When you look at what it takes to get a good RB...

 

Spending a 1st round pick on an RB gives me about a 40% chance of having a top 10 RB.

Spending a 3rd round or later pick on an RB gives me a 40% chance of having a top 10 RB.

 

Why spend a high pick on an RB when you are just as likely to find a productive RB in rounds 3 and below. The colts lose on this deal as T Rich is no better than any of the 3rd round backs listed above.

 

That is no where close to the right way to look at statistics. I know people can make numbers say whatever they want but this is ridiculous.

[FakeFoozballIzFun 6]

The overreactions in this thread crack me up. It isn't like the Colts didn't know what they were getting. There's plenty of game film to go around that shows what kind of back Trent Richardson is. Have any of you overreactors actually watched him in a game? He breaks like 2 tackles per run.

 

Trent and the Colts will be fine. Patience is a virtue.

[Junkie 0]

The overreactions in this thread crack me up. It isn't like the Colts didn't know what they were getting. There's plenty of game film to go around that shows what kind of back Trent Richardson is. Have any of you overreactors actually watched him in a game? He breaks like 2 tackles per run.

 

Trent and the Colts will be fine. Patience is a virtue.

Totally agree. Trent is the type of RB that gets better as the game goes on. For whatever reason, the Colts just haven't given him enough work yet. I think that changes soon, which is why I think he's a good bye-low. The talent is there....