Zero RB Strategy in action

[Mike FF Today 635]

Jason Mitchell put the Zero RB draft strategy through it's paces in a recent MFL 10 draft. Here are the results along with some analysis.

 

 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,658]

I think its a big mistake in an mfl 10s league without FA pickups. Not sure what type this league is, but if its draft only you have no chance at bolstering the backs if they dont produce.

 

I really dislike this team. I could be dead wrong, but this is a zero qb, te, rb strategy.

 

This team is at a disadvantage at qb since half the league probably has a better qb than cutler.

 

This team is at an obvious disadvantage at rb.

 

This team is also at a disadvantage at TE with 2 players i really dont trust to be consistent in clay and walker. Good TEs usually come from teams with good qbs. Rarely do tes become consistently significant with sketchy qb play. Even jordan cameron fell off last year once the qb play declined.

 

I find the best teams are usually dominant at at least 2 positions, or they have a well balanced team with good players at all positions. This team has neither.

 

Pierre thomas should be on any zero rb team that has a full ppr. Swap hilton for thomas and i believe you have a much greater probability of winning.

[fugoondo 3]

How do you go "Zero Rb" and still end up with a crappy roster at QB, WR, TE, AND RB?

 

Demeryus and Jordy better have the seasons of their lives!!!!!!!!

 

You have 2 players who would pose ANY threat to your competition

 

 

Cutler

Gore, Pierce

Demeryus, Jordy, VJax

TE's you drafted...cant remember?

 

 

Im not a RB guy either.....but if you go that route, you better have a serious advantage at the other positions. I give you an EPIC FAIL!

 

Boom

[thePRO 78]

The longest I'll wait to draft an RB is the 3rd round and I usually don't do that.

 

I did this recently and got:

 

Megatron

AJ Green

Stacy

Patterson (Return league also)

Ryan

Gerhart (Glad NFL ranks him looow)

 

Passing yards were 1 point for every 20 and 6 pts for TDs, so QB's were going a bit early. Ryan should be up there in yards this year, so I grabbed him in the 5th. Was hoping I could get him later, but didn't want to risk it.

[WhiteWonder 2,308]

ouch. that turned out badly. As i've said before, I don't think the "zero RB strategy" is anything more than cutesy fluff. nothing against the writer of the article, not saying he came up with it.

 

im also sure someone can show me a team where I might say, "oh wow, ok, I see how you benefited by ignoring RB".... this is not one of those teams. If your WR combo is DT and Jordy, its a nice combo but not nice enough to get me to pass on a RB. And those RB's... wow. McFadden and Pierce might be worth relatively nothing by week 3 and Ridley is no lock for production. I like Gore and Woodhead but why not lock in the san fran backfield with hyde? Would be much more on board with this "strategy" if i saw a Vereen or Pierre, guys we know will have a role and if my 1/2/3 punch at WR/TE was a little more enticing than Jordy and VJax.

[bjsteel 34]

I was thinking the same of what others have said, if you're waiting on RB, you better draft a TE in the 2nd or 3rd rd and a QB before the 5th/6th...5 WR's with the first 5 picks is ridiculous, unless you can use all 5 in your starting lineup. If you can only start 3, most of the time, Johnson and Hilton won't even be used, making them wasted draft picks. Perhaps WR/WR/TE/WR/QB/RB or even WR/TE/WR/QB/WR/RB would work, assuming you are taking a RB in the 6th rd.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

That team gives me the heeby jeebies....

[GS3K 12]

The longest I'll wait to draft an RB is the 3rd round and I usually don't do that.

 

I did this recently and got:

 

Megatron

AJ Green

Stacy

Patterson (Return league also)

Ryan

Gerhart (Glad NFL ranks him looow)

 

Passing yards were 1 point for every 20 and 6 pts for TDs, so QB's were going a bit early. Ryan should be up there in yards this year, so I grabbed him in the 5th. Was hoping I could get him later, but didn't want to risk it.

That's a nice zero R.B. team.

[AnaheimRams 28]

My "zero-rb" team:

 

Julio Jones

Antonio Brown

Julian Edelman

Matt Forte

 

(Zero RB is stupid)

[Flgatorguy87 160]

The longest I'll wait to draft an RB is the 3rd round and I usually don't do that.

 

I did this recently and got:

 

Megatron

AJ Green

Stacy

Patterson (Return league also)

Ryan

Gerhart (Glad NFL ranks him looow)

 

Passing yards were 1 point for every 20 and 6 pts for TDs, so QB's were going a bit early. Ryan should be up there in yards this year, so I grabbed him in the 5th. Was hoping I could get him later, but didn't want to risk it.

I'd get behind this team but you did what's smart and didn't just continue drafting WRS who will be on your bench while neglecting the RB position.

[Masterminds 5]

Seems dumb to pick your 5th WR before you even get a RB or QB.

[montana 89]

In 10 team leagues from the back (7-10) you have the best shot at it.

I goofed around with this over the weekend.

 

I could usually get a version of this:

Thomas

Dez

Cobb/Brown

Jennings

Gerhart

 

Almost 90% of the time...maybe more. If I get the tail end, I'm seriously considering this.

[montana 89]

I usually ended up going something like this:

WR - Thomas

WR - Dez

WR - Cobb

RB - Jennings

RB - Gerhart

TE/RB - depends TE & CJ?K

QB - Ryan

[Masterminds 5]

I did something similar in an auction league where top QBs and RBs and Calvin go for almost 40% of the salary cap. I ended up with...

 

Matt Ryan

Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, Steven Ridley, Steven Jackson, Darren McFadden, Danny Woodhead

AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson

Greg Olsen

[PackYourNut 47]

First off, Zero RB was the play like 3 years ago, when everyone was going RB.RB. Now that it's gained popularity and trickled down to the mainstream it's not going to be as viable as it was in the past. You are probably better off with Zero WR at this point, as you want to be zigging when everyone else is zagging.

 

Secondly, this is a best ball league. So, it's not as terrible as everyone is making it out to be assuming it is full PPR.

 

The real downside to this team is that he has no upside at TE.

 

I'd like to see the draft itself, because I am positive he made plenty of wrong decisions for a best ball league!

[Mike FF Today 635]

Another example. I'm participating in an MFL25 league where the owner drafting from the 12th position has taken WRs with his first five picks. He took Pierre Thomas as his first RB at the 5-6 turn.

 

Draft Results are here.

 

Keep in mind this a PPR league, starting 3 WRs plus a flex (RB, WR or TE). I'm intrigued that he passed on Gore to take Pierre and I'll be interested to see how the rest of his team/draft shakes out. We just started Round 7.

 

You can sort the table by clicking on the column headers. His top five picks were Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Emmanuel Sanders.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,658]

Another example. I'm participating in an MFL25 league where the owner drafting from the 12th position has taken WRs with his first five picks. He took Pierre Thomas as his first RB at the 5-6 turn.

 

Draft Results are here.

 

Keep in mind this a PPR league, starting 3 WRs plus a flex (RB, WR or TE). I'm intrigued that he passed on Gore to take Pierre and I'll be interested to see how the rest of his team/draft shakes out. We just started Round 7.

 

You can sort the table by clicking on the column headers. His top five picks were Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Emmanuel Sanders.

I just dont get it. Andre Johnson? Look at what he might be playing with at QB. I know you didn't make the pick, but there seems to be 1 WR that gets taken who could have easily been passed on.

 

He passed on Shane Vereen for Andre Johnson. That is just not good drafting. Even if Vereen doesn't pan out, it's not like his team would have been dependent on Johnson.

[KSB2424 3,095]

That team gives me the heeby jeebies....

 

It does now, on paper, but I think the point that is trying to be made by waiting on RB's is that historically you can find a starter later in the draft or even on waivers later. There are so many busts and injuries with RB's over the course of a season that position can be found during the season as opposed to the draft.

 

I agree with the premise; moreso in PPR.

[polecatt 408]

If you don't pick RBs for the first several rounds there is no excuse for having Jay Cutler as your starting QB and Charles Clay as your starting TE. I think this strategy can work but not if you start with 5 WR. This team will only win when Demaryius Thomas has a big game and you guess correctly with one of the other WR.

[vroompac 2]

I have been in a league with PPR for over ten years and won it 6 doing this. 3rd down backs and pass catching backs get almost as many points as the "elite" top few. In a PPR having 3 top receivers and a TE destroys.

 

Standard leagues I could see arguments but in PPR if you are just now figuring this out I am sure some people are thanking you for the easy money.

[bigdog1218 0]

I have been in a league with PPR for over ten years and won it 6 doing this. 3rd down backs and pass catching backs get almost as many points as the "elite" top few. In a PPR having 3 top receivers and a TE destroys.

 

Standard leagues I could see arguments but in PPR if you are just now figuring this out I am sure some people are thanking you for the easy money.

 

Sorry but winning a league 6 times in 10 years has more to do with your lack of competition than your strategy.

 

Which 3rd down backs scored nearly as many points as the "elite" few last year? The stats aren't really that hard to find to provide an actual list. I bet when you actually look at the facts the list is non-existent and no third down back even approached "elite" status last year.

 

The facts are WR's become dime a dozen in PPR making it easier to draft them later and no need to draft them early. You still need RB's to win and playing in a league full of tacos doesn't change that fact. Fantasysharks has an article showing draft strategies for the first 3 rounds and % that win their championship. 92% of winners select a RB first, 63% of winners draft 2 RB's in the first 3 rounds and only 13% of winners draft 2 WR's in the first 3 rounds. It's not rocket science.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I have been in a league with PPR for over ten years and won it 6 doing this. 3rd down backs and pass catching backs get almost as many points as the "elite" top few. In a PPR having 3 top receivers and a TE destroys.

 

Standard leagues I could see arguments but in PPR if you are just now figuring this out I am sure some people are thanking you for the easy money.

PPR is a game changer. If you got Woodhead last year and paired him with a Pierre Thomas then sure life was grand, but those guys are not the same in standard.

[shorepatrol 1,782]

I have been in a league with PPR for over ten years and won it 6 doing this. 3rd down backs and pass catching backs get almost as many points as the "elite" top few. In a PPR having 3 top receivers and a TE destroys.

 

Standard leagues I could see arguments but in PPR if you are just now figuring this out I am sure some people are thanking you for the easy money.

yup, been winning more leagues than not with that strategy for about 4 years (Taking a running QB too) . Folks are finally starting to catch up now though in competitive leagues

[giraldi02 470]

Just seems excessive for FIVE receivers in a row. Seems like a Michael Moore mock draft

[BlackPlague 1]

Another example of passing on early RBs...

 

I didn't intend to do this prior to the draft nor am I claiming this is some brilliant strategy everyone should do.

 

I just don't feel good about the 2nd tier of RBs this year. If I don't get one of the top 5-6 RBs, I'll wait until the 2nd tier guys are gone.

 

14 teams, total points - not H2H, .5 PPR. I had the 9th pick.

 

In draft order:

 

Graham

Brees

V Cruz

Gore

Chris Johnson

T Williams

Pierre

F Jax

Gordon

Dobson

Hawkins

 

So:

 

Brees

Gore / C Johnson / Pierre / F Jax

V Cruz / T Williams / J Gordon (doh) / Dobson / Hawkins

Graham

 

I feel as if I got some pretty damn good RB value because the WRs were flying off the board. I went for higher floor, lower ceiling RBs to try and guarantee at least some production instead of going after the 'who knows' types like Sankey and Tate. I'll take 8-10 pts a week and hope for a few 15+ weeks in there.

 

Anyway, we'll see what happens.

[KSB2424 3,095]

12 Team PPR pick 11

 

Peyton Manning

B.Marshall

K.Allen

P.Garcon

Ryan Mathews

Ben Tate

K.Rudolph

K.Benjamin

Danny Woodhead

D. Amendola

Terrence West

Antonio Gates

James Jones

A.Dalton

JETS

BLair Walsh

[tanatastic 2,061]

12 Team PPR pick 11

 

Peyton Manning

B.Marshall

K.Allen

P.Garcon

Ryan Mathews

Ben Tate

K.Rudolph

K.Benjamin

Danny Woodhead

D. Amendola

Terrence West

Antonio Gates

James Jones

A.Dalton

JETS

BLair Walsh

Awful. Garçon as an rb would make it better to me. Ur lookin rough during the bye weeks.

[tabris 1]

Your first 5 picks are WRs, but you can only start a max of 4. It is clear you are trolling.

[NPNG 4]

In my fantasy league (auction) I tried this strategy. looks like this:

 

Romo

Palmer

 

J. Bell

J. Hill

L. Miller

Ingram

B. Sankey

 

Dez

Jordy

M. Floyd

Cruz

 

Ertz

Kelce

 

Kicker/Def

 

*** With $100 budget, I refused to spend 30-35% on one guy (elite RB). Also, 2nd tier RB's were going for $18-24. Didn't seem like value. I took a bunch of RB's who could hit a couple weeks down the road. As for now, I'll start Joique and 4 WR's. Not special, I know, but each of my receivers has breakout possibilities each week. Not sure I like my team but it was a different approach so we'll see. I need Hill, Ingram, and/or Sankey to become fantasy relevant by week #4 when bye weeks start to hit.

[fantasymate 0]

Oh wow, not the most popular strategy in the world.

 

For those of you that are curious to look deeper into the Zero RB draft used in my article, check out the full draft board: http://football13.myfantasyleague.com/2014/options?L=34024&O=113&DISPLAY=LEAGUE

 

I should note that the draft took place in the middle of July. At that time, Stevan Ridley's status with the Patriots seemed much better than it does right now. I definitely would not have taken him in the 6th if the draft happened now.

 

I agree with everyone who thinks this team would be better with Pierre Thomas. When I full on committed to waiting forever on RB (a decision I didn't fully commit to until round 4, actually), my dream start was WRx5 then Pierre Thomas in round 6. You'll note if you check out the full draft results that I was NEARLY successful, as Pierre went off the board one pick before I came on the clock in the 6th round. Nearly doesn't really help me, though.

 

For my picks in the first five rounds, in looking back I think my biggest mistake was taking Vincent Jackson over Julius Thomas. If I did the same draft over but had Orange Julius sitting there as my top TE, the overall roster might look a lot better. Andre Johnson in four might not work out if the Texans turn into a total disaster, but I think that's a very reasonable place to grab a WR that caught 109 passes last year (MFL10 best balls are PPR). Grabbing T.Y. Hilton in round 5 was a pure best ball related move. In the past he has shown that when he has big weeks, they are really BIG weeks. These are the types of guys that are great in best ball but annoying as hell in standard leagues.

 

Somebody suggested I should have taken Carlos Hyde alongside Frank Gore to lock up the 49ers backfield. I like that idea, but Hyde was selected before I came back on the clock in round 8, so it was never really an option. An option that was available to me, however, that same idea applied to the Ravens. I should have drafted Ray Rice in either round 6 or 7 with the intention of grabbing Pierce later (like I did) to own the whole Ravens backfield. At the time of this draft, Ray Rice's status was still very much in the air, so people were clearly afraid to take him (including me). In retrospect, a backfield of Rice, Gore, Woodhead, McFadden, Pierce would make me feel one thousand times better than the version with Ridley.

 

The Darren McFadden pick has boom or bust written all over it. He might end up being a black hole (ha HA!) on my roster, but the concern with McFadden has never been talent. Getting a guy with talent to go in the first three rounds in the ninth is a risk worth taking in a league where there's no difference between a third place finish and a twelfth (#1 wins money, #2 wins a free ticket to a future MFL10).

 

As for QB: I believe hating on this draft because of Jay Cutler is the wrong way to approach hating on this draft. Cutler is considered by many to be a clear QB1 (including on this very site, where Doug Orth has him as the #9 QB). When you spend 10 rounds ignoring QB and still come away with Cutler, that's something to celebrate, not hate on. I've seen Cutler go as early as round 7 or 8 in drafts. For a regular league, I'd be thrilled by my QB situation after the way I started the draft, but for this league where I can't touch my roster, I'll admit that it is scary that Geno Smith and Matt Schaub are the only other guys contributing.

 

Finally, I'll confess that the tight end situation isn't the sexiest in the world (which is why I now wish I took Julius Thomas), but we're talking about two guys who could very easily challenge for top 12 status when it's all said and done. Getting the high score each week between two fringe TE1s should at least sustain the position as my early WRs (hopefully) carry my team.

 

I liked seeing all of your responses, despite how terrible you think my draft went (*curls up in a corner and starts crying*).

 

I'd like to hear more of your thoughts now that you can see the full draft breakdown linked above.

 

Later on I hope to take a closer look at the people who replied with their own attempts at waiting on RB and give some opinions on how those drafts went.

[cmh6476 812]

I guess I kind of did this, in an 8-man league with a 1-player keeper; ended up with

 

Matt Ryan (3)

Philip Rivers (10)

 

Zac Stacy (keeper)

Alfred Morris (4)

Rashad Jennings (5)

Trent Richardson (6)

Maurice Jones-Drew (11)

Darren McFadden (12)

 

Demaryius Thomas (1)

A. J. Green (2)

Michael Floyd (7)

Percy Harvin (8)

Torrey Smith (9)

Jason Witten (13)

 

Phil Dawson (15)

 

Cincinnati (14)

[shorepatrol 1,782]

I guess I kind of did this, in an 8-man league with a 1-player keeper; ended up with

 

Matt Ryan (3)

Philip Rivers (10)

 

Zac Stacy (keeper)

Alfred Morris (4)

Rashad Jennings (5)

Trent Richardson (6)

Maurice Jones-Drew (11)

Darren McFadden (12)

 

Demaryius Thomas (1)

A. J. Green (2)

Michael Floyd (7)

Percy Harvin (8)

Torrey Smith (9)

Jason Witten (13)

 

Phil Dawson (15)

 

Cincinnati (14)

How the hell is that an 8 team league with a keeper

[cmh6476 812]

the keeper is only someone you drafted in the 6th round or later the year before

[shorepatrol 1,782]

the keeper is only someone you drafted in the 6th round or later the year before

thats all I got too

[TimHauck 1,998]

Another example of passing on early RBs...

 

I didn't intend to do this prior to the draft nor am I claiming this is some brilliant strategy everyone should do.

 

I just don't feel good about the 2nd tier of RBs this year. If I don't get one of the top 5-6 RBs, I'll wait until the 2nd tier guys are gone.

 

14 teams, total points - not H2H, .5 PPR. I had the 9th pick.

 

In draft order:

 

Graham

Brees

V Cruz

Gore

Chris Johnson

T Williams

Pierre

F Jax

Gordon

Dobson

Hawkins

 

So:

 

Brees

Gore / C Johnson / Pierre / F Jax

V Cruz / T Williams / J Gordon (doh) / Dobson / Hawkins

Graham

 

I feel as if I got some pretty damn good RB value because the WRs were flying off the board. I went for higher floor, lower ceiling RBs to try and guarantee at least some production instead of going after the 'who knows' types like Sankey and Tate. I'll take 8-10 pts a week and hope for a few 15+ weeks in there.

 

Anyway, we'll see what happens.

 

I also went Graham-Brees in a 14-teamer without really having a strategy in mind going in. I was nervous about that especially since its a 14-teamer but really just went with who I thought was the best available. Ended up with VJax/Crabtree/Boldin/Shorts/Matthews at WR and Sankey/TRich/Rice/Ridley/Freeman at RB (no PPR, can only start 2 RB's).

 

Not 100% sold on the team but think I did okay. As always I did miss out on a few guys particularly RB's that went 1 or 2 picks before me.

 

But to be honest the thing I was most surprised about again because its a 14-teamer is the number of rosterable RB's still on the WW. This is partially due to a couple guys not being there and getting autodrafted 2 kickers, but the point still stands. For example guys like JStew, Ivory, and Dunbar are all still available. This leads me to believe that there will be some good RB's that come off the WW during the season, so hopefully those employing the zero-RB strategy can find some of them.